| 成交量 | 成交金 | 成交价 | 相对当日收盘 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万 | 额（万 | 格 | 折溢价（%） | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | 股） | 元） | （元） | | | | | 1022.50 | 10000.05 | 9.78 | -12.05 | 华泰证券股份有限公司 | 中信建投证券股份有限公司上 | | | | | | 常州花园街证券营业部 | 海浦东新区福山路证券营业部 | 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，今创集团今日收盘价为11.12元，上涨2.30%，日换手率为2.00%，成交额为 1.75亿元，全天主力资金净流入122.76万元，近5日该股累计上涨3.63%，近5日资金合计净流入812.77万 元。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 据天眼查APP显示，今创集团股份有限公司成立于2003年03月26日，注册资本78371.8767万人民币。 （数据宝） 今创集团11月26日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量1022.50万股，成交金额1.00亿元，大宗交易成交 价为9.78元，相对今日收盘价折价12.05%。该 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies in the engineering machinery and forklift sectors, emphasizing undervalued growth potential [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of NVIDIA in FY26Q3, with revenue reaching $57.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62.5%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.0%, indicating robust demand in the AI equipment sector [2][3]. - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with domestic excavator sales projected to grow at an annual rate of over 30% from 2025 to 2028, despite current funding challenges affecting sales conversion [4]. - The forklift industry shows a positive trend with October sales reaching 114,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, driven by low domestic demand baselines and recovering overseas demand [4]. Summary by Sections Recommended Companies - The report recommends a focus on companies such as Northern Huachuang, Sany Heavy Industry, and others in the engineering machinery and AI equipment sectors [1][14]. AI Equipment - NVIDIA's strategic partnerships with OpenAI and other tech giants are expected to enhance AI infrastructure, with significant revenue growth anticipated in the upcoming quarters [3]. - Recommendations for AI equipment include Dazhu CNC for PCB drilling equipment and Hongsheng for liquid cooling solutions [4]. Engineering Machinery - October data shows a significant improvement in domestic sales of various machinery types, with excavator sales expected to peak at 250,000 units by 2028 [4]. - Key companies recommended in this sector include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and others [4]. Forklift Industry - The forklift sector is experiencing steady growth, with a notable increase in both domestic and export sales, indicating a recovery in demand [4]. - Recommended companies include Hangcha Group and Anhui Heli [4]. Lithium Battery Equipment - The report anticipates a 40% growth in energy storage demand from 2025 to 2026, driven by the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles and AI data centers [4]. - Key recommendations include suppliers like Xian Dao Intelligent and Hangke Technology [4]. General Market Trends - The overall machinery industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in fixed asset investment and a rebound in demand across various sectors, including construction and logistics [4].

Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment in China is stable, with the mechanical industry showing good growth in performance for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a total revenue of 1,892.4 billion yuan, up 8.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 139.9 billion yuan, up 12.82% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - The mechanical industry maintained steady revenue and profit growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 673.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.63%, and net profit of 41.2 billion yuan, also up 12.82% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for the mechanical industry in the first three quarters of 2025 was 22.21%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.39%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 21.93%, down 0.58 percentage points year-on-year and 0.59 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit margin was 6.12%, up 0.12 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.18 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Group 2: Sub-industry Performance - Key sub-industries showing recovery include lithium battery equipment and machine tools, while photovoltaic equipment is still bottoming out; semiconductor equipment, marine engineering, construction machinery, and injection molding machines continue to show positive trends [3] - The top five industries by revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025 were semiconductor equipment (+32%), rail transit equipment (+15%), injection molding machines (+14%), lasers (+14%), and machine tools (+11%) [3] - The top five industries by net profit growth were marine engineering (+30%), industrial robots (+24%), semiconductor equipment (+23%), rail transit equipment (+23%), and construction machinery (+21%) [3] - In Q3 2025, the fastest-growing sub-industries by revenue were semiconductor equipment (+36%), marine engineering (+26%), construction machinery (+16%), injection molding machines (+16%), and machine tools (+14%) [3] - The top five sub-industries by net profit growth in Q3 2025 were lithium battery equipment (+111%), 3C and panel equipment (+66%), semiconductor equipment (+33%), machine tools (+32%), and industrial robots (+32%) [3]

格隆汇11月12日｜财信证券研报指出，中国中车前三季度营收与利润实现快速增长，且收入增长动能呈 现结构化优势。公司数据显示，2025年前三季度订单拓展成效突出，新签订单约2472亿元，同比 +16.49%，其中国际业务签约额约467亿元，同比+36.55%。不仅整体新签订单量庞大，国际业务签约额 也形成重要补充，展现出国内外市场协同发力的格局。新产业业务成为核心增长引擎，海外市场拓展成 效显著，与国内市场形成协同发力格局，叠加轨交装备行业潜力释放的动力，未来发展趋势稳健，维 持"买入"评级。预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为143.21、165.06、175.56亿元，EPS为0.50、0.58、 0.61元，PE为15.37、13.34、12.54倍，参考行业2025平均PE，给予合理区间7.59-9.11元。 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 18.83 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.86% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.72 billion yuan, up 10.85% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.61 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 30.92% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from rail transit equipment was 10.30 billion yuan, growing by 9.23% year-on-year, with specific segments such as rail electrical equipment at 8.08 billion yuan (+5.82%), rail engineering machinery at 0.90 billion yuan (+13.47%), and communication signal systems at 0.76 billion yuan (+14.47%) [1] - Emerging equipment business generated 8.43 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.26%, with notable contributions from basic components at 3.84 billion yuan (+30.40%), new energy vehicle electric drive at 1.87 billion yuan (+9.25%), and new energy power generation at 1.59 billion yuan (+25.26%) [1] Profitability Metrics - The company's overall gross margin was 32.42%, an increase of 3.14 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin stood at 15.33%, up 0.36 percentage points [2] - The total expense ratio for the first three quarters was 14.40%, showing a decrease of 0.38 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Semiconductor Business Growth - The semiconductor segment reported revenue of 3.92 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 23.19% [2] - The company's production line in Yixing reached full capacity in June, and the third phase of the Zhuzhou SiC production line is expected to be operational by the end of the year, indicating a positive outlook for capacity expansion and customer acquisition [2] Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.30 billion yuan, 4.78 billion yuan, and 5.23 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 3.16, 3.52, and 3.85 yuan, and PE ratios of 16x, 15x, and 13x respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The mechanical industry is expected to have significant investment opportunities in the technology innovation sector by 2026, with structural opportunities arising from both domestic demand recovery and high export demand [2][5]. Group 1: Technology Innovation and AI Infrastructure - The AI infrastructure is expected to benefit from high capital expenditure and rapid technological iterations, leading to new opportunities in the mechanical sector. Overseas capital expenditure for computing power is exceeding expectations, driving demand for PCB equipment and AIDC [2][5]. - The next generation of chips, such as Rubin, may increase processing requirements for PCB, cold plates, and quick connectors, while also promoting new technologies like micro-channel liquid cooling, enhancing the value of equipment and consumables [2][5]. Group 2: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to accelerate by 2026, with a focus on leading companies expanding production. The period from 2022 to 2025 is seen as a transition from prototype to small-scale engineering, with 2026 potentially marking the year of mass production for Tesla [7]. - Attention should be given to the performance upgrades of domestic humanoid robots and the rapid development of application scenarios [7]. Group 3: Export Chain - The export chain should focus on sectors with global competitiveness, such as engineering machinery, hardware tools, motorcycles, and oil service equipment, which are expected to benefit from internationalization and reforms [3][12]. - The engineering machinery sector is seeing significant growth in exports, particularly in the U.S. due to the recent interest rate cuts, which are likely to boost demand [11]. Group 4: Specialized Equipment - Specialized equipment sectors are expected to experience turning points and technological changes, with a focus on areas like solid-state batteries and nuclear fusion, as well as segments like 3C equipment and coal machinery that are showing signs of recovery [3][15]. - The lithium battery equipment sector is projected to see a growth spurt, with domestic capital expenditure expected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% [16]. Group 5: General Cyclical Opportunities - The general cyclical sector is expected to see a bottoming out, with structural opportunities emerging in areas like machine tools, injection molding machines, and industrial gases, as demand recovers [13][14]. - The demand for industrial gases is expected to improve, although there may still be pressure on gas prices [14]. Group 6: 3C Automation Equipment - The 3C automation equipment sector is anticipated to enter a hardware innovation phase in 2026, driven by new product trends such as foldable screens and AI glasses [17].

Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth with a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, particularly in the non-recurring profit category [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 18.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.72 billion yuan, up 10.9%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 2.61 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 30.9% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 6.62 billion yuan, a 9.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, up 7.7%, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 1.03 billion yuan, which grew by 22.5% [1] Business Segments - The rail transit equipment business showed stable revenue growth, with operating revenue of 10.31 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 9.2% year-on-year increase. Revenue from rail transit electrical equipment, rail engineering machinery, communication signals, and other rail transit equipment were 8.08 billion, 0.90 billion, 0.76 billion, and 0.57 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 13.5%, 14.5%, and 64.1% [1] - The emerging equipment business experienced rapid development, with operating revenue of 8.43 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%. Revenue from basic components, new energy vehicle drive systems, new energy generation, marine engineering equipment, and industrial conversion businesses were 3.84 billion, 1.87 billion, 1.59 billion, 0.66 billion, and 0.47 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 30.4%, 9.3%, 25.3%, 7.1%, and 33.5% [2] Market Position - As of August 2025, the company maintained a stable market share in the bidding for new trains and locomotives, with the China National Railway Group having cumulatively bid for 278 new trains and 456 locomotives in the year, indicating a continued growth in bidding scale that is expected to support the company's annual performance [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue expanding its emerging equipment segment, particularly in power semiconductors, with ongoing production and capacity increases. The IGBT reverse conduction chip technology has made significant progress, enhancing the company's competitive edge [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected net profits attributable to shareholders of 4.30 billion, 4.81 billion, and 5.35 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to EPS of 3.17, 3.54, and 3.94 yuan [2]

Macro Analysis - The report indicates that the current macro environment in Japan is conducive to moderate economic growth, with manageable debt sustainability, improving consumer sentiment, and favorable manufacturing investment trends [1] - The report anticipates an upward potential for the yen by 2026, while the Japanese stock market's previous gains have largely reflected policy expectations, suggesting that future market momentum will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation [1] Financial Engineering - The report predicts a year-on-year decline in profit for the coal, steel, and cement industries, while float glass profitability is expected to show positive growth [2] - A slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory is noted, with stable recovery potential for pork prices expected until Q1 of next year [2] - Weak PMI data and housing sales indicate a need to monitor the potential resumption of infrastructure support expectations [2] Real Estate - In October, the sales of the top 10 and top 100 real estate companies increased by 6% and 4% month-on-month, respectively, but year-to-date sales show a decline of 16% and 17% year-on-year [3] - The report recommends focusing on structurally strong companies with high product reputation and strong sales rankings in core cities, such as China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [3] - Long-term growth potential in property services is highlighted, with recommendations for companies like China Merchants Jiyu and Greentown Service [3] Petrochemical - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December and a pause in production plans from January to March 2026, which is expected to support oil prices in the short term [4] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the long-term investment value of major oil companies amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [4] Company Research - Sanyou Chemical's profitability has declined due to falling soda ash prices, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [7] - Aokai Co. has seen a continuous improvement in performance, although profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to weaker-than-expected downstream demand [8] - Qiaoyuan Co. has optimized its product structure and expanded its market, resulting in an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [9] - Xiyes Co. reported a 17.81% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a 35.99% increase in net profit [10] - China Metallurgical Group's revenue and net profit have declined significantly, but new contracts have shown positive growth [11] - Times Electric's revenue grew by 14.9% year-on-year, with a stable growth outlook for its rail transit equipment business [12] - Oulutong's revenue reached a record high in Q3, driven by strong demand for high-power server power supplies [13] - Junshi Biosciences has adjusted its profit forecasts downward due to ongoing R&D investments and the gradual ramp-up of product sales [14] - Jinjiang Hotels reported a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit margin, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company’s A-shares and H-shares [4][6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 18.83 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.72 billion CNY, up 10.9%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 2.61 billion CNY, marking a significant increase of 30.9% [1][4] - The company's gross margin improved to 32.4%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin slightly decreased to 15.3%, down 0.7 percentage points [1] - The rail transit equipment business showed stable growth, with revenue reaching 10.31 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. The company maintained a stable market share in the bidding for train sets and locomotives, which is expected to support the annual performance [2] - The emerging equipment business experienced rapid development, with revenue of 8.43 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3%. The company made significant progress in IGBT chip technology and is expanding its production capacity in power semiconductors [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.62 billion CNY, a 9.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.05 billion CNY, up 7.7% [1] - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.30 billion CNY, 4.81 billion CNY, and 5.35 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.17 CNY, 3.54 CNY, and 3.94 CNY [4][5] Revenue Breakdown - The rail transit equipment segment generated 10.31 billion CNY in revenue, with specific contributions from various sub-segments: electrical equipment (8.08 billion CNY), engineering machinery (0.90 billion CNY), communication signals (0.76 billion CNY), and other equipment (0.57 billion CNY) [2] - The emerging equipment segment's revenue was 8.43 billion CNY, with notable growth in basic components (3.84 billion CNY), electric drive systems for new energy vehicles (1.87 billion CNY), and renewable energy generation (1.59 billion CNY) [3] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s projected P/E ratios for A-shares are 23, 19, 16, 15, and 13 for the years 2023 to 2027, respectively [5][11] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.42% in 2023 to 10.45% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a steady revenue growth with a total revenue of 18.83 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.72 billion yuan, up 10.85% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit grew by 30.92% to 2.61 billion yuan [2][5]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.62 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.58%, with a net profit of 1.05 billion yuan, up 7.69% year-on-year [2][5]. - The report anticipates stable growth in the rail transit business, an upward trend in the semiconductor sector, particularly in IGBT for rail networks, and positive performance in new energy generation and marine engineering sectors [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company generated a revenue of 188.30 billion yuan, a 14.86% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.20 billion yuan, up 10.85%, and the non-recurring net profit was 26.14 billion yuan, marking a 30.92% increase [2][5]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 66.16 billion yuan, a 9.58% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 10.49 billion yuan, up 7.69% [2][5]. Business Segments - The rail transit equipment business showed steady growth, with revenue of 103.05 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 9.23%. Key segments included rail transit electrical equipment at 80.76 billion yuan (up 5.82%) and communication signals at 7.58 billion yuan (up 14.47%) [11]. - The emerging equipment business also performed well, generating 84.26 billion yuan in revenue, a 22.26% increase year-on-year. Notable growth was seen in basic components (30.4% increase) and new energy generation (25.26% increase) [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a positive trajectory in its rail transit business and semiconductor sector, with projections for net profits of 4.25 billion yuan and 4.88 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 16.7 and 14.5 [11].