利安隆 300596.SZ 公司研究 | 季报点评 业绩稳健增长，新兴领域有序推进 ——利安隆 2025 年三季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司主营业务仍处于触底后逐步复苏阶段，故适当下调营收利润。我们预测公司 2025-2026 年归母净利润分别为 5.42、6.31 亿元（原 25-26 年预测 5.75、6.68 亿 元），新增 2027 年预测归母净利润为 7.16 亿元。按照 26 年可比公司平均 18 倍市盈 率，给予目标价 49.50 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：原料及产品价格波动；产品需求不及预期；产能爬坡进度不及预期；新业 务项目推进不及预期；宏观经济不确定性风险。 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 营业收入(百万元) 5,278 5,687 6,297 6,862 7,414 同比增长 (%) 9.0% 7.7% 10.7% 9.0% 8.1% 营业利润(百万元) 411 477 639 748 847 同比增长 (%) -30.5% 15.9% 34.2% 17.0% 13.2% 归属母公司净利润(百万元) 362 426 542 631 716 ...

近日，朗盛旗下莱茵化学公司正式完成青岛生产基地扩产升级项目。据介绍，这是莱茵化学5年来在特 殊橡胶制品业务线的全球最大投资，旨在强化其在中国橡胶化学品市场的本地化供应能力。同时，这也 表明朗盛对持续深耕中国市场的坚定态度。 11月11日，在扩产剪彩仪式后的媒体圆桌会上，朗盛大中华区总裁罗高名，朗盛莱茵化学业务部亚太区 销售负责人、莱茵化学(青岛)有限公司总经理张磊，朗盛亚太区及印度企业传播副总裁卓斯乐等与媒体 分享了朗盛在华发展的最新进展与未来规划。 坚持本土化创新 罗高名自豪地说："去年8月，我们庆祝了莱茵化学青岛生产基地投产25周年，今天又见证了青岛工厂扩 产剪彩的重要时刻。朗盛莱茵化学自成立以来，持续深耕中国市场，不断创新突破。" 据介绍，朗盛青岛基地成立于1995年，在30年的发展历程中，凭借创新、安全与可持续发展表现获得认 可。目前，基地可生产橡胶添加剂、润滑油添加剂等100多种化学品，总产能已达2.5万吨，产品销售聚 焦于亚太市场。 "此次基地扩产源于下游强劲的市场需求。"张磊介绍说，通过此次扩产升级，基地的加工助剂V4、预 分散母胶粒V8两条生产线产能均提升50%，基地总产能从每年2.5万吨增加 ...

本周观点：欧佩克降价增产，国际油价震荡运行，建议关注进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方向 华鑫证券近日发布化工行业研究：化工产品价格方面，本周部分产品有所反弹，其中本周上涨较多的 有：甲苯上涨25.22%，液氯上涨13.73%，甲基环硅氧烷上涨13.64%，硫酸上涨11.11%等，但仍有不少 产品价格下跌，其中丁二烯跌幅-7.89%，醋酸乙烯跌幅-4.35%，二氯甲烷跌幅-4.23%，燃料油跌 幅-3.80%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 甲苯、液氯等涨幅居前，丁二烯、醋酸乙烯等跌幅较大本周涨幅较大的产品：甲苯（FOB韩国， 25.22%），液氯（华东地区，13.73%），甲基环硅氧烷（DMC华东，13.64%），硫酸（杭州颜料化工 厂105%，11.11%），硫磺（CFR中国合同价，10.00%），电池级碳酸锂（新疆99.5%min，8.78%）， 锂电池电解液（全国均价/磷酸铁锂电解液，8.70%），合成氨（河北金源，8.58%），硫酸（双狮 98%，8.00%），工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min，7.59%）。 本周跌幅较大的产品：双酚A（华东，-2.05%），PVC（华东乙烯法，-2.06%），丙烯（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lianlong, reported a revenue of 5.278 billion yuan for 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9%, driven by increased production and sales of its products [1] Revenue Summary - The projected revenue for 2024 is 5.687 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 7.74% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.509 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 5.72% [1] Business Segment Performance - The core business segments, including polymer material anti-aging additives and lubricant additives, have shown stable growth [1] - The lubricant additives segment experienced a significant revenue increase of 15.40% year-on-year, contributing notably to the overall performance [1]

Group 1 - The company reported a closing price of 57.3 yuan on November 7, 2025, with a decrease of 0.87% and a turnover rate of 1.72% [1] - The company has been in the lubricant additive industry for over 20 years and aims to become a significant global supplier in this sector [1] - The company plans to gradually build and release its production capacity based on market demand and customer development, focusing on obtaining third-party certifications and expanding its product matrix [1] Group 2 - The company has no intention to seek strategic partners for share transfer or buyback to mitigate the impact of potential large-scale share reductions by shareholders [2] - The company emphasizes that its stock price reflects its future value and will continue to enhance its competitiveness to create more value for shareholders [2] Group 3 - On November 7, there was a net outflow of 941.85 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 176.69 million yuan [3] - Conversely, there was a net inflow of 1,118.54 million yuan from speculative funds on the same day [3]

Core Viewpoint - Lianlong's stock price has shown a significant increase of 32.59% year-to-date, despite a recent decline of 2.13% over the last five trading days, indicating volatility in the market performance of the company [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Lianlong achieved a revenue of 4.509 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.72%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 392 million yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 24.92% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 450 million yuan, with 243 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of November 5, Lianlong's stock price was 39.95 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 9.173 billion yuan. The trading volume was 37.688 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.43% [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 2.2304 million yuan, with large orders accounting for 6.53% of total purchases and 12.44% of total sales [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 14,200, a decrease of 20.10% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 25.15% to 15,752 shares [2]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the tenth largest circulating shareholder, holding 2.1619 million shares as a new shareholder [3]. Business Overview - Lianlong, established on August 8, 2003, and listed on January 19, 2017, specializes in the research, production, and sales of polymer material anti-aging chemical additives. The main business revenue composition includes 78.97% from anti-aging additives, 20.72% from lubricant additives, and 0.31% from other sources [2]. - The company is classified under the basic chemical industry, specifically in the category of other chemical products, and is associated with concepts such as new materials, margin financing, smart glasses, small-cap stocks, and OLEDs [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [26]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.87% for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 2.551 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 574 million yuan, up 14.85% [6][10]. - The company plans to establish a production base in Saudi Arabia to enhance its international business development [9][10]. - The growth in lubricant additive exports from Henan province significantly contributed to the company's performance, reflecting a recovery in downstream inventory levels [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 889 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.02% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 204 million yuan, up 12.68% year-on-year and 16.48% quarter-on-quarter [6][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin stands at 35.86%, with a diluted return on equity of 15.68% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 23% [2]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has a designed production capacity of 315,000 tons per year for lubricant additives, with an additional 435,000 tons under construction. The completion of these projects is expected by the end of 2025 [9][10]. - The establishment of a joint venture in Saudi Arabia aims to create a production base for lubricant additives, targeting markets in the Middle East, Africa, and India [9][10]. Market Outlook - The lubricant additive market is projected to have significant growth potential, with the company positioned as a leading player in the domestic market [10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.852 billion, 4.411 billion, and 4.949 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 891 million, 1.024 billion, and 1.171 billion yuan [10].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant acceleration in revenue growth for companies in the AI and cloud computing sectors, driven by increased demand and strategic investments in technology infrastructure [6][23][27] - The commercial aerospace industry is identified as a key growth area, supported by government policies and increasing market visibility for companies involved in satellite and rocket manufacturing [7][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of e-commerce channels for retail companies, showcasing a shift in consumer behavior and the need for businesses to adapt to digital sales strategies [20][22] Industry Commentary - The telecommunications sector is experiencing a convergence of overseas industrial trends and domestic policy support, suggesting a favorable environment for companies to capitalize on the upcoming quarterly reports [5][6] - The AI infrastructure market is seeing substantial investments, with Google committing to supply Anthropic with up to 1 million TPU units, indicating a robust growth trajectory for AI-related businesses [6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a clear direction for building a "strong aerospace nation" and "strong network nation," which is expected to catalyze investment opportunities in commercial aerospace and domestic computing sectors [6][7] Company Analysis - Shunluo Electronics reported record-high quarterly performance, with Q3 revenue reaching 18.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.21%, driven by rapid growth in data center business [10][12] - Shen Nong Group's Q3 report indicates a stable gross margin of 36.84%, with a focus on maintaining competitive breeding costs in the pig farming industry, positioning the company favorably within the sector [16][17] - The jewelry company Zhou Dazheng showed a narrowing revenue decline in Q3, with e-commerce channels emerging as a significant growth driver, reflecting a shift in consumer purchasing patterns [20][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies involved in high-value sectors such as AI, commercial aerospace, and e-commerce, as these areas are expected to see sustained growth and investment returns [9][18][31] - For Shunluo Electronics, projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 11.21 billion, 14.32 billion, and 18.19 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth outlook [12] - Shen Nong Group is expected to maintain a steady profit trajectory, with projected net profits of 5.59 billion, 5.90 billion, and 11.20 billion yuan for the same period, reflecting its competitive position in the market [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 2.551 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.87%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 574 million yuan, up 14.85% year-on-year [4][6] - The establishment of a joint venture in Saudi Arabia aims to enhance the company's global competitiveness by creating a lubricant additive production base [5][7] - The company is actively transitioning from single additives to compound additives, with compound revenue expected to exceed 60% in 2024, reflecting a successful strategic upgrade [6] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a basic earnings per share of 1.96 yuan, with third-quarter revenue of 889 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.02% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.27% [4] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 820 million, 936 million, and 1.13 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.73, 17.30, and 14.32 times [8] Strategic Developments - The joint venture with Farabi Downstream Company in Saudi Arabia will involve an estimated total investment of approximately 246 million USD, with the first phase expected to cost around 127 million USD [7] - The new production base is strategically located to serve markets in the Middle East, Africa, and India, enhancing the company's ability to respond to regional customer demands [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.55 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 570 million yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 540 million yuan, an increase of 13.7% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 890 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.3%. The net profit for Q3 was 200 million yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year and 16.5% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company's gross margin was 34.9%, which is a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year and 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. This decline was primarily due to rising raw material prices and adjustments in product structure. The expense ratio for the first three quarters was 10.9%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [13]. Production Capacity - As of the end of 2024, the company has a designed annual production capacity of 315,000 tons for lubricant additives, an increase of 115,000 tons compared to 2023. The current projects under construction have an annual capacity of 435,000 tons. The progress of the 460,000-ton lubricant additive series product project has reached 17.1%, while the 150,000-ton project has reached 87.5% completion, both expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [13]. Product Development - The company has a comprehensive product line covering various series of additives, which serves as a solid foundation for entering mainstream markets. The company has independently mastered multiple formulations for diesel and gasoline engine oil composite agents, with some already passing third-party testing [13]. Strategic Expansion - The company plans to invest approximately 246 million USD to establish a joint venture in Saudi Arabia, aiming to create a production base that serves the Middle East, Africa, and India. The total investment is expected to be around 250 million USD, with the first phase requiring 130 million USD [13]. Future Profit Projections - The company is expected to see significant growth in revenue and profits as production capacity continues to be released. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 800 million yuan, 1.1 billion yuan, and 1.39 billion yuan, respectively [13].