项目储备稳步扩大、支撑更有力。紧盯国家政策导向和资金投向，聚焦构建"5512"现代产业体系，抓早 抓紧谋划储备一批打基础、利长远、增后劲的重大项目。截至目前，全市共谋划"十五五"项目1800余 个，总投资约1.1万亿元。组织专业力量发挥智库外脑作用，着力提升谋划储备质效，筛选成熟度高、 可行性强的优质项目积极争取政策支持。全年累计下达超长期特别国债资金6.33亿元、支持28个项目建 设，争取中央预算内资金10.2亿元、支持50个项目建设，发行地方政府专项债券33.27亿元、支持56个项 目建设。 要素保障精准赋能、服务更高效。持续深化重大项目要素保障协调机制，全方位提升保障能力。强化资 金供给，积极搭建银企对接平台，通过社会资本、银行融资、向上争取资金等方式，全力保障项目资金 需求。统筹土地资源，定期梳理用地需求，加快重点项目用地组卷报批，进一步压缩用地审批时限。同 步做好用能用电用水等其他保障，为项目建设提供全流程要素支撑，以高频次调度、常态化调研为抓 手，全力推动项目建设各项工作落地见效。 拂晓新闻网--拂晓报讯（记者 朱瑞兵）记者从市政府新闻办日前召开的新闻发布会上获悉，2025年，市 发展改革委紧扣抓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry in China is expected to end its downward cycle in 2026, presenting structural investment opportunities due to the recovery of downstream demand, the acceleration of domestic substitution, and the ongoing implementation of anti-involution policies [1][2]. Group 1: Traditional Chemical Sector Recovery - The core opportunity in the traditional chemical sector for 2026 arises from improved supply-demand dynamics driven by anti-involution policies, leading to a rational price recovery [2][18]. - The domestic production capacity of organic silicon has peaked, with major companies leading production cuts to stabilize prices, resulting in inventory levels dropping to a three-year low [2][4]. - PTA production capacity expansion is nearing completion, with a significant reduction in inventory levels, indicating a potential recovery in the polyester chain's profitability [4]. Group 2: Agricultural Chemicals and Price Recovery - The agricultural chemical sector is poised for growth as safety incidents have disrupted global pesticide supply chains, leading to a supply contraction that catalyzes price recovery [4][8]. - The price index for raw agricultural chemicals has shown signs of bottoming out, indicating a potential rebound in prices [4]. Group 3: Acceleration of Domestic Substitution in New Materials - The domestic substitution of chemical new materials is gaining momentum, driven by government support and technological advancements, becoming a key growth engine for the industry [9][10]. - The market for lubricating oil additives has seen a decrease in imports and an increase in exports, indicating a shift towards becoming a net exporter and enhancing domestic brands' market presence [10]. - The electronic chemicals sector is benefiting from the growth of AI and semiconductor industries, with domestic manufacturers achieving technological breakthroughs and entering major supply chains [14][17]. Group 4: Demand Recovery and Policy Support - Gradual recovery in downstream demand, particularly in the real estate and automotive sectors, is expected to support the chemical industry's growth [18][19]. - Government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and stimulating consumption are expected to bolster demand for chemical products, enhancing the industry's resilience [19]. - The implementation of anti-involution policies and regulations is expected to improve market competition and guide industry profitability back to reasonable levels [19]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment in the chemical industry should focus on three core areas: capitalizing on cyclical recovery opportunities in sectors like organic silicon and PTA, investing in high-growth areas such as bio-based materials and electronic chemicals, and targeting leading chemical companies with cost and scale advantages [20]. - The industry is at a critical juncture of cyclical reversal and structural upgrade, with both cyclical and growth opportunities present [20].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to end its downward cycle in 2026, presenting structural investment opportunities driven by anti-involution policies, accelerated domestic substitution, and gradually recovering downstream demand [4][19]. Group 1: Traditional Chemical Industry Opportunities - The core opportunity in the traditional chemical sector arises from improved supply-demand dynamics due to anti-involution policies, leading to a rational price recovery after years of capacity expansion [5][19]. - The domestic production capacity of organic silicon has peaked, with leading companies reducing output to stabilize prices, resulting in inventory levels dropping to a three-year low and prices showing signs of recovery [5][10]. - PTA production capacity expansion is nearing completion, with a significant reduction in inventory levels, indicating a potential recovery in the polyester chain's profitability [7][19]. Group 2: New Materials and Domestic Substitution - The domestic substitution of new chemical materials is accelerating, driven by government support and technological breakthroughs, becoming a core growth engine for the industry [11][12]. - The market for bio-based materials is expanding, supported by policies promoting green and low-carbon transitions, with domestic companies advancing in technology and production [12]. - The lubricating oil additive sector has seen a decrease in imports to 203,000 tons in 2023, while exports rose to 208,000 tons, indicating a shift towards becoming a net exporter [12]. Group 3: Downstream Demand Recovery - Gradual recovery in downstream demand is providing solid support for the chemical industry, with the real estate market expected to rebound, boosting demand for construction materials and coatings [19]. - The automotive sector is experiencing stable growth, with a 10.99% year-on-year increase in production in October 2025, further driving the demand for chemical materials [19]. - Policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including those targeting real estate and consumer spending, are expected to enhance downstream demand, while stricter energy and carbon emission regulations are leading to increased industry concentration [19][20]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment in the chemical industry in 2026 should focus on three core areas: capturing cyclical recovery opportunities from anti-involution, investing in high-growth sectors like bio-based materials and electronic chemicals, and identifying leading companies with cost and scale advantages [21][22]. - The industry is at a critical juncture of cyclical reversal and structural upgrade, with both cyclical and growth opportunities present [22].

营商环境是园区发展的核心竞争力。抚顺高新区通过构建"落地无忧、靶向赋能、安商护航"的全生命周 期服务体系，实现"园区所能"精准对接"企业所需"的服务范式，让精准服务成为吸引、留住、成就企业 的最佳名片。 精准适配：让企业"落地无忧" 企业落地初期，面对繁杂的审批流程与陌生的政策环境，往往"不知从何下手"。为此，抚顺高新区将复 杂的落地流程转化为清晰易懂的服务指南，让企业"一目了然"。针对首次落地、缺乏经验的企业，高新 区推出"单项+全流程"双叠加服务模式，提供从工商登记到许可审批的全流程"帮办代办"服务。"企业来 我们这里投资都是奔着长远发展来的，得把咱们承诺的政策给落实好，让企业感受到在这里投资落地有 保障、有人帮。"抚顺高新区投资促进局副局长张勇表示。 辽宁优尔实业有限公司公共事业部部长刘赫对此感受颇深。这家从辽阳奔赴抚顺、盘活本地老旧企业的 外来企业，于去年1月顺利试生产。"我们选择了落地全流程服务，每个环节都有专人跟进，还会主动告 知政策节点，让我们少跑腿。"刘赫表示，目前公司已进入正式生产阶段，二期项目正在筹划中。 很多企业像辽宁优尔一样，被优良的营商环境所吸引，在高新区落地生根。"十四五"期间，抚 ...

利安隆今年以来股价涨47.23%，近5个交易日涨6.84%，近20日涨16.68%，近60日涨24.61%。 12月23日，利安隆盘中上涨2.09%，截至13:00，报44.36元/股，成交1.32亿元，换手率1.35%，总市值 101.86亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入1437.10万元，特大单买入822.13万元，占比6.24%，卖出173.60万元， 占比1.32%；大单买入2772.97万元，占比21.03%，卖出1984.40万元，占比15.05%。 截至9月30日，利安隆股东户数1.42万，较上期减少20.10%；人均流通股15752股，较上期增加25.15%。 2025年1月-9月，利安隆实现营业收入45.09亿元，同比增长5.72%；归母净利润3.92亿元，同比增长 24.92%。 分红方面，利安隆A股上市后累计派现4.50亿元。近三年，累计派现2.43亿元。 资料显示，天津利安隆新材料股份有限公司位于天津市南开区华苑产业区开华道20号F座20层，成立日 期2003年8月8日，上市日期2017年1月19日，公司主营业务涉及高分子材料抗老化化学助剂的研发、生 产、销售及相关服务。主营业务收 ...

本文来自方正证券研究所于2025年12月21日发布的报告《关注反内卷低估值龙头及供需边际改善板块》，欲了解具体内容，请阅读报告原文。 张汪强 S1220524120002 核心观点 25FY化工景气底部延续，市场风格景气投资与主题行情齐头并进。25Q3以来全球制造业景气回暖，但需求增速放缓，化工品PPI同比走弱。需求侧国内地 产处于周期底部，新能源车销量维持高增长，社零增速稳中向好，促消费政策持续发力。供给侧中国已成为全球化工行业领导者，而近年来欧盟区制造业 和化工业产能利用率下行，德国基础化学品产量持续下滑，国内相对维持稳定；Capex方面国内基化固投增速已转负，但供过于求对价格的短期压制因素 仍在，库存周期仍在被动补库阶段。量增价减企业利润承压，尽管油煤开始下行，化工大宗价差短期仍在历史底部，资源型企业ROE相对高位。在市场风 格上，化工景气子板块如氟化工、磷肥钾肥等表现良好，期间穿插事故驱动的小品种涨价行情，主题投资方面，机器人、固态电池、AI等科技主题映射 的膜材、树脂板块下半年表现出色，供给侧反内卷行情此起彼伏，总体看基化整体估值明显修复。机构持仓方面，3Q25主动基金降低化工板块配置，膜 材料、氮 ...

周期开启跨年行情 20251221 摘要 股市短期或加速上涨，科技和非银板块仍被看好，周期和消费品中的转 型机会值得关注。机构保收益和降仓位对市场冲击已基本消化，创业板 表现强劲，科技行情远未结束。 中央经济工作会议强调推动投资止跌回稳及房地产去库存，旨在应对投 资增速和外商直接投资转负的局面，预计明年 3 月将公布大型基建项目， 财政和货币政策或将做出相应调整。 2026 年市场风格预计将倾向于质量成长或基本面策略回归，科技与非 科技、权重与小市值均有机会，但防守型策略资产可能面临挑战，重点 关注科技成长和周期成长方向。 航空业未来两年投资逻辑基于油价、汇率利好及国家提振消费政策，客 座率创新高后转向票价提升，供需关系改善将推动票价和盈利上升，建 议积极布局相关标的。 油运行业基本面稳健，原油轮运价维持高位，预计四季度及全年盈利将 创十年新高。合规市场供需关系持续向好，一年期期租价格上涨反映乐 观预期，春节前后运价回落时可逆向布局。 Q&A 对未来一段时间的市场行情有何看法？ 我们对未来市场行情持乐观态度。首先，政策预期有望上修，市场交投也将更 为活跃。在长时间的横盘震荡后，我们预计指数将逐步上升，并在春节 ...

华安证券主要观点如下： 综合整治内卷式竞争，积极把握周期反转机会 国产替代引领成长主线，布局正当时 智通财经APP获悉，华安证券发布研报称，2026年全球宏观面临极大不确定性，在全球贸易格局重塑、 化工资本开支放缓的情况下，该行建议关注两大确定性较高的投资主线：反内卷与国产替代。25年受上 游大宗能源价格下降及化工品供需承压影响，中国化工产品价格指数回落至低位。 生物基材料受国家政策大力扶持，企业加速技术突破与产业化，从生物基单体到复材制品的国产化生态 逐步成形;润滑油添加剂国内企业加速技术突破，战略转型成效显著，多款高端产品通过国际认证，进 出口结构逆转国产替代进入快车道;全球显示面板市场稳定增长，国内企业加速推进材料升级迭代及材 料研发，国产化进程显著加速;电子陶瓷海外厂商三超多强，MLCC国产突破伴随AI/汽车需求转暖，供 需向好;氟化液3M退出市场格局重塑，液冷与半导体制造需求正盛，看好国产厂商市场占有率提升;AI服 务器爆发性增长，电子级聚苯醚凭借优异介电性能成为关键材料，国内厂商实现技术突破并量产，进入 头部供应链，国产替代提速;晶圆产能全球进入扩张周期，电子化学品作为必须耗材在制程提升与产能 扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities highlights the peak of domestic silicon production capacity, the exit of overseas manufacturers, and the potential recovery of the polyester chain's prosperity due to concentrated production capacity in the polyester filament sector [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Domestic silicon production capacity has reached its peak, while leading companies are driving industry recovery as overseas manufacturers continue to exit [1][3]. - The PTA production capacity expansion is nearing its end, leading to a concentration in polyester filament production capacity, which is expected to improve the prosperity of the polyester chain [1][3]. - The price of caprolactam has dropped to a low point, prompting the industry to initiate self-driven anti-involution measures [3]. - The raw material price index has rebounded after hitting a bottom, with frequent safety incidents causing significant risks to the global supply chain of key pesticides [3]. - The price of spandex has remained below the cost line, leading to widespread industry losses, but a slowdown in new capacity releases may optimize the supply structure and drive price recovery [3]. - The vitamin market is expected to see significant price increases in 2024 due to a tightening global supply [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes two main investment themes: anti-involution and domestic substitution, particularly in the context of global macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown in chemical capital expenditures [2][4]. - The biobased materials sector is receiving strong support from national policies, with companies accelerating technological breakthroughs and industrialization [4][6]. - The lubricating oil additive sector is witnessing rapid technological advancements among domestic companies, with several high-end products achieving international certification [4][6]. - The electronic ceramics market is seeing strong demand driven by AI and automotive sectors, with domestic manufacturers making breakthroughs in MLCC production [4][6]. - The exit of 3M from the fluorinated liquids market is reshaping the competitive landscape, with domestic manufacturers expected to increase their market share [4][6]. - The explosive growth of AI servers is driving demand for electronic-grade polyphenylene ether, with domestic manufacturers achieving technological breakthroughs and entering key supply chains [4][6].

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes two main investment themes for the chemical industry: anti-involution policies and domestic substitution, which are expected to drive recovery and growth in the sector [4][5][6] Anti-Involution and Cycle Recovery - The report suggests that the chemical industry is at a turning point, with anti-involution measures leading to a recovery in the cycle. Key areas include the peak of new capacity in organic silicon, the end of PTA capacity expansion, and a rebound in prices for certain chemicals due to supply chain disruptions [4][5] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has decreased significantly, dropping to 3865 points by November 30, 2025, down 16.37% from early 2024 and 10.71% from the beginning of 2025 [4][20] Domestic Substitution as a Growth Driver - Domestic substitution is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant support from national policies for bio-based materials and advancements in technology leading to a more robust domestic supply chain [4][6] - The report identifies several companies positioned to benefit from these trends, including KaiSai Bio and RuiFeng New Materials, which are making strides in bio-based materials and lubricant additives, respectively [5][6] Market Dynamics and Price Recovery - The report notes that while the chemical market is experiencing a downturn, certain segments are expected to see price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced capacity expansion [4][22] - Specific chemical products have shown varied price movements, with some experiencing significant declines while others are stabilizing or recovering [22] Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which is anticipated to support the chemical industry. The report mentions that the real estate market is stabilizing, and automotive production has increased, indicating a potential uptick in demand for chemical products [25][33] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry is slowing, with a notable decline in new projects. The report indicates that the total construction in progress for the chemical sector was 327.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 17.64% year-on-year [34][39] Inventory and Consumption Trends - High inventory levels in the chemical sector are being addressed as consumer demand begins to recover. The report suggests that the inventory-to-revenue ratio for the basic chemical industry was 0.62 in Q3 2025, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [41][42] Profitability and Financial Performance - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for the chemical industry, with gross margins and return on equity (ROE) showing improvement in Q3 2025 compared to previous periods [56][60] - Specific sub-sectors, such as agrochemicals and fluorochemicals, have demonstrated significant profit growth, with some exceeding 100% year-on-year increases [55][56]