文： 泽平宏观团队 2024 年 9 月下旬以来，力度空前的宏观放松政策和AI科技浪潮点燃了 A 股港股 " 信心 牛 " 行情，一轮波澜壮阔的牛市启动。 随着 A 股到达 4100 点，市场出现大幅震荡，很多朋友问， 牛市结束了吗？未来还有没 有行情？ 我在2024年9月市场信心低谷的时候，率先旗帜鲜明看多，提出 "信心牛"和"东升西 落"。 最近我复盘了 A 股历史上的三次大牛市， 1999-2001 年的 519 行情、 2005-2007 年的周期牛、 2014-2015 年的改革牛和水牛，寻找牛市运行的规律，帮助大家看清本轮牛 市的来龙去脉。 通过复盘三轮大牛市，我有七大发现： 一是 A 股大牛市启动需要三大条件，政策转向、资金流入、估值低位， 最初充满争议， 伴随估值逐渐修复，投资者的热情被点燃后开启牛市。牛市总是在绝望中重生，争议中上 涨，狂欢中崩盘。 二是 A 股牛市一般经历三个阶段，政策驱动 - 资金驱动 - 基本面驱动， 牛市启动初期 与经济基本面关联较小，但牛市的持续上涨与经济基本面有关，若无基本面和企业盈利支 撑，则终究会回吐涨幅。 三是 A 股政策市和散户为主的特征导致牛短熊长，大起 ...

文 任泽平 2024年以来，股市气贯长虹、振奋人心，黄金白银爆发史诗级行情，背后是什么原因？未来还能涨多高？ 我在2021年提出"乱世黄金"，2024年9月提出"信心牛"，2025年提出"拥抱康波周期，大宗商品元年"，均被验证。 这些判断均是基于20多年对宏观周期的分析框架，宏观周期不同于短周期、技术层面的噪音分析，是看长远、看本质的更高维层面，坚持长 期主义和理性精神的判断。 1、对股市和房市的看法 拥抱康波周期，不要成为老登。 慢牛，就是老登负责慢，小登负责牛。 有了对康波周期的判断，当前这个世界发生的一切就都得到了解释：科技革命，AI爆发，大宗商品元年，地缘动荡，全球放水。 房地产市场显著回升还需要再等等 ，现在主要是促进止跌回稳，重点发展新基建、新质生产力，打造新引擎。 不要错过康波周期，这是我们这代人的红利，拥抱信心牛、科技牛和大宗商品。 房地产长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融。10多年前，我提出行业分析框架。2015年判断"一线房价翻一倍"，2020年判断"房地产将 出现历史性大顶"。有同学听了我的建议，前几年卖出房子，买入黄金和科技股。 本人对房地产市场的判断，一直追求专业、理性、负责任。 2 ...

任泽平博士的观点，网上传来传去，多有谬误，本文一并更正，正本清源。 需要声明，任泽平博士新媒体矩阵号过往所写公司，仅为研究，并非投资建议，公开场合不荐 股。 做有温度、有情怀、有专业的研究，用知识推动社会进步。正心正念，坚持做长期正确的事。 感谢各界以及媒体朋友的关心，一起带着梦想去旅行。 基建"写入2020年政府工作报 - 2 - 1 12 在2021年12月常州金坛区举办的新能源产业峰会上，提出"当下不投新能源，就像20年前没买 房"。只是在2022年中期新能源大热时被媒体借势炒作上热搜，并非部分网上解读的是2022年 提出的观点。 021年12月,中国汽车工业协会、常州市金坛区人民政府、 法模如十篇安十量店照过留学生经 新能源相关的产业是未来中国经济最有希望的,最具爆发力的领域 下不给新能源 就像20年前沿理服 这是我个人的看法,这是时代的力量,我们每个人不过是时代的 在2020年国内最早倡导新基建，看好新能源和人工 智能。专著《新基建》荣获中组部第五届全国党员培 训创新教材奖。 任泽平 马家讲 连 你们著的《新基建》在第五届全国党员教育培训 教材展示交流活动中被评为创新教材。 中共中央组织部 2021 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of accurate interpretation of Dr. Ren Zeping's views, correcting misconceptions circulating online, and promoting research that contributes to societal progress [1]. Group 1: New Infrastructure and Economic Outlook - In 2020, the concept of "new infrastructure" was advocated early in China, focusing on sectors like renewable energy and artificial intelligence, with the book "New Infrastructure" awarded for its innovative educational content [4][5]. - At a 2021 conference, Dr. Ren stated that not investing in renewable energy now is akin to missing out on real estate opportunities two decades ago, highlighting the explosive potential of the renewable energy sector in China's economy [6]. - A bullish economic outlook was presented for the second half of 2024, predicting a "confidence bull market" driven by unexpected policy measures that would restore confidence in Chinese assets and the economy [8]. Group 2: Economic Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that if the government responds positively to societal demands and implements large-scale economic stimulus plans while protecting the private sector, a revival of the Chinese economy is likely, contrasting with a potential downturn in the U.S. economy [9]. - In 2020, Dr. Ren was among the first to advocate for the relaxation of birth policies, which gained significant attention and led to the eventual policy change [13].

Core Viewpoint - A new bull market, termed "confidence bull," has emerged since September 2024, driven by significant policy easing, abundant liquidity, and a new wave of technological revolution, marking a historic opportunity for investors [3][10]. Group 1: Characteristics of the Current Bull Market - This bull market is described as a once-in-a-decade event, comparable to previous major bull markets in 2004-2007 and 2014-2015, with the current market driven by policy relaxation, liquidity, and technological advancements [4][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 56.2% and the ChiNext Index by 122.2% since their respective lows in 2024, indicating substantial market growth [6]. - Trading volume has surged from a few hundred billion to over 3 trillion, and market capitalization has increased from 70 trillion to 123 trillion, creating a wealth effect exceeding 50 trillion [9]. Group 2: Three Major Drivers of the Bull Market - The bull market is supported by three main drivers: continuous policy easing, a new technological revolution, and abundant liquidity, which together create a "confidence bull" [10]. - Policy easing since September 2024 has included interest rate cuts, relaxed housing market restrictions, and significant infrastructure investments, leading to increased risk appetite and lower risk-free rates [10][11]. - The technological revolution, characterized by advancements in AI, robotics, and semiconductor industries, has led to a surge in high-risk growth stocks, driving the current market [11]. Group 3: Historical Missions of the Bull Market - The current bull market is expected to fulfill three historical missions: supporting the development of new productive forces, aiding in major power competition, and repairing residents' balance sheets [13]. - The transition to high-quality economic development necessitates capital market support for new economy sectors, which are often unable to secure financing through traditional banking systems [13]. - The bull market's prosperity is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by the decline in real estate values, which have significantly impacted household wealth and consumption [14]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Outlook - The sustainability of the bull market will depend on continued macroeconomic policy easing, including further interest rate cuts and fiscal measures to stimulate demand [16]. - The market's volatility, characterized by rapid rises and falls, necessitates effective regulation of leverage to ensure healthy development [16][17]. - A long-lasting bull market could significantly enhance wealth effects, stimulate economic activity, and promote technological innovation, creating a positive feedback loop for the economy [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article aims to clarify and correct misconceptions surrounding Dr. Ren Zeping's views, emphasizing the importance of professional research to drive social progress [1]. Group 1: New Infrastructure and Economic Outlook - In 2020, the concept of "new infrastructure" was advocated early on, with a focus on renewable energy and artificial intelligence, leading to the publication of a book titled "New Infrastructure," which won an award for innovative teaching materials [4][5]. - At a renewable energy industry summit in December 2021, it was stated that not investing in renewable energy now is akin to missing out on real estate opportunities 20 years ago, highlighting the sector's potential as a key driver of China's economic growth [6]. - A bullish economic outlook was presented for the second half of 2024, predicting a "confidence bull market" driven by unexpected policy measures that would restore confidence in Chinese assets and the economy [8]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations and Social Progress - Recommendations were made to gradually implement a three-child policy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, reflecting the ongoing debate about population growth and economic activity [12][13]. - In December 2022, a proposal was made to prioritize the reopening of economic activities, emphasizing the need for constructive engagement to promote social progress [14][15].

Group 1 - The article discusses the current bullish sentiment in the market, emphasizing the need for rationality and caution as regulatory measures aim to cool down excessive speculation [1] - It highlights the importance of understanding market trends and maintaining a long-term perspective, suggesting that the logic behind the bull market remains intact as long as confidence, policy support, and technological advancements continue [1] - The article warns that market fluctuations are normal and that investors should not be swayed by emotions, advocating for a disciplined approach to investing [4][5] Group 2 - It stresses the significance of investing only with spare money and avoiding a gambler's mentality, recommending that investors maintain a financial buffer for living expenses [6] - The article points out that bull markets do not guarantee profits and cautions against chasing trends and frequent trading, which can lead to losses [7][8] - It emphasizes the necessity of enhancing one's understanding of the market and avoiding impulsive decisions based on rumors or short-term fluctuations [9] Group 3 - The article advises investors to operate within their capability circles and choose investment strategies that suit their expertise, whether through direct stock purchases or utilizing professional funds [10] - It recommends diversification to mitigate risks, suggesting that investors should not concentrate their assets in one area [11] - The importance of maintaining a long-term vision is highlighted, with a warning against being influenced by short-term market movements [12][13] Group 4 - The article discusses the "disposition effect," where investors tend to sell winning stocks too early while holding onto losing ones, urging a focus on fundamental analysis instead [14] - It warns against "selective attention," where investors only acknowledge information that supports their views, advocating for a comprehensive evaluation of market conditions [15]

任泽平博士的观点，网上传来传去，多有谬误，本文一并更正，正本清源。 需要声明，任泽平博士新媒体矩阵号过往所写公司，仅为研究，并非投资建议，公开场合不荐 股。 做有温度、有情怀、有专业的研究，用知识推动社会进步。正心正念，坚持做长期正确的事。 感谢各界以及媒体朋友的关心，一起带着梦想去旅行。 在2021年12月常州金坛区举办的新能源产业峰会上，提出"当下不投新能源，就像20年前没买 房"。只是在2022年中期新能源大热时被媒体借势炒作上热搜，并非部分网上解读的是2022年 基建"写入2020年政府工作报 - 2 - 1 12 在2020年国内最早倡导新基建，看好新能源和人工 智能。专著《新基建》荣获中组部第五届全国党员培 训创新教材奖。 任泽平 马家讲 连 你们著的《新基建》在第五届全国党员教育培训 教材展示交流活动中被评为创新教材。 中共中央组织部 2021年1月 提出的观点。 021年12月,中国汽车工业协会、常州市金坛区人民政府、 法模如十篇安十量店照过留学生经 f能源汽车产业还有哪些投资机会？产业投融资面临哪些难点挑战? 场重磅年会给出答案 5 O 新闻工事出展 2024年9月提出《下半年经济展望:东升 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the current bullish market sentiment and the emergence of a short squeeze, emphasizing the need for regulatory measures to cool down the market and promote a steady growth rather than a frenzied one [1][15] - It highlights the importance of maintaining a rational mindset during market fluctuations, suggesting that the logic behind the bull market must remain intact to avoid its end [1][15] - The author identifies the "confidence bull" as a combination of policy, technology, and liquidity factors, predicting a potential market divergence and increased volatility ahead [1][15] Group 2 - The article provides nine key recommendations for investors, emphasizing the need for a rational approach to market volatility and the importance of not being swayed by emotions [3][17] - It advises investors to use only spare money for investments, avoiding a gambler's mentality and the use of leverage, to ensure that their financial well-being is not compromised [20][21] - The text warns against the misconception that a bull market guarantees profits, highlighting the risks of chasing trends and frequent trading, which can lead to losses [23] Group 3 - The article stresses the necessity of enhancing one's understanding of the market, advocating for a shift in mindset to avoid making impulsive decisions based on rumors [24][25] - It encourages investors to operate within their capability circles, suggesting that even renowned investors have their areas of expertise [26] - The importance of diversification in investment portfolios is emphasized to mitigate non-systematic risks and balance overall volatility [27] Group 4 - The article advocates for a long-term investment perspective, cautioning against being influenced by short-term market fluctuations [28] - It discusses the "disposition effect," where investors tend to sell winning positions too early while holding onto losing ones, and suggests focusing on fundamental analysis to avoid this bias [29] - The need to overcome selective attention bias is highlighted, encouraging investors to maintain diverse information sources and a comprehensive analytical framework [30]

Economic Overview - The total economic output of China surpassed 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a nominal GDP growth of 4.0% and a real GDP growth of 5.0%, indicating a shift in economic growth engines towards high-tech industries [2] - The industrial production showed signs of recovery, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in December, driven by high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors [5] Foreign Trade - China's export value reached a record high of 357.75 billion USD in December, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, contributing to a total import and export value exceeding 45 trillion yuan for the year [7] - The export structure has become more optimized, with high-tech product exports growing by 13.2%, significantly outpacing overall export growth [7] Price Trends - Consumer prices showed a slight increase, with a CPI rise of 0.8% in December, while PPI decreased by 1.9%, indicating a narrowing decline due to both "anti-involution" policies and external factors [9] Capital Markets - The capital market is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in new stock market accounts and a bullish trend in the A-share market, reaching a ten-year high in January 2026 [11] New Production Forces - Emerging industries are leading growth, with integrated circuit manufacturing and electronic materials seeing substantial increases in value added, while the production of industrial robots and electric vehicles also surged [13] Real Estate Market - The real estate sector is undergoing inventory reduction and stabilization, with policies aimed at promoting recovery, despite a decline in sales area and value [15]