信用债利差

Search documents
【立方债市通】上半年债市发债规模超27万亿元/周口投资集团拟发债36亿元/机构展望下半年债券市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 12:46
Group 1: Bond Market Overview - The total bond issuance in the market reached 27.29 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 24% [1] - Among the total, government bonds accounted for 16.93 trillion yuan, while credit bonds totaled 10.35 trillion yuan [1] - Specific figures include 7.88 trillion yuan in national bonds, 5.49 trillion yuan in local bonds, 55 billion yuan in central bank bills, and 349.68 billion yuan in policy financial bonds, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 35.58%, 57.18%, and 19.23% for national, local, and policy financial bonds [1] Group 2: ABS Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the ABS market saw 1,090 new projects with a total issuance of 974.9 billion yuan, marking a 27% increase year-on-year [3] - Credit ABS issuance decreased by 23%, with 102 new projects totaling 95.9 billion yuan [3] - The largest issuance came from non-performing loans, with 80 projects amounting to 36.2 billion yuan, followed by personal auto loans with 10 projects totaling 34.3 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance Plans - The Ministry of Finance plans to reissue 240 billion yuan of book-entry interest-bearing government bonds, including 109 billion yuan of 7-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.79% and 131 billion yuan of 10-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.67% [5] Group 4: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 1.31 trillion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4.065 trillion yuan in reverse repos [7] Group 5: Local Government Bond Issuance - Hunan Province successfully issued its third batch of special bonds, totaling 9.856 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 23.854 billion yuan for land reserve special bonds, accounting for 44.56% of construction project funding [8] Group 6: Corporate Bond Issuance - Zhoukou Investment Group plans to issue 3.593 billion yuan in corporate bonds, which has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [9] - The Zhumadian Urban Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 400 million yuan in corporate bonds with a 2.72% interest rate [9] - Tailong Pharmaceutical intends to register 800 million yuan in short-term financing bonds to replace bank loans and supplement working capital [10] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The West Fixed Income team predicts that credit bond yields are likely to remain volatile, with the interest rate spread expected to reach its lowest point in the third quarter [20] - The Hua'an Fixed Income team anticipates that August may see a peak in the supply of interest rate bonds, with a significant reduction in supply pressure in July [20]
票息资产热度图谱:极致 2.0%的顾虑
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 11:19
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Report's Core View - As of June 30, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds in the outstanding credit bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties. Compared with the previous week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds were mostly adjusted, with the 1 - 2 year private enterprise private non - perpetual variety having a relatively larger upward range, averaging 9.7BP. Among real estate bonds, the yields of state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual varieties increased more overall, with the 1 - 2 year variety rising 4.8BP. - In financial bonds, varieties with higher valuation yields and spreads included leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds. Compared with the previous week, the yields of most financial varieties increased. Specifically, the yields of 1 - 2 year private perpetual and within 1 year public perpetual varieties in leasing bonds increased by more than 5BP; the interest rate increase of each variety of general commercial financial bonds was less than 2BP; among Tier 2 capital bonds, the adjustment range of urban and rural commercial bank varieties was larger, with the yield of 2 - 3 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds increasing by 9.8BP, but the yield of 3 - 5 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds decreasing by more than 12BP; in addition, the yield increase of each maturity variety in securities company bonds and sub - bonds was controlled within 5BP. - For urban investment bonds, in public urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were both below 2.4%; urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% appeared in prefecture - level and district - county levels in Guizhou. In private urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian were below 2.8%; varieties with yields higher than 4% appeared in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Yunnan. Compared with the previous week, the yields of most public urban investment bonds increased slightly, and the yields of most varieties in private urban investment bonds also increased [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - **Valuation Yields and Spreads**: Private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads. The valuation yields and spreads of leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds in financial bonds were relatively high [2][3][4]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds had yield adjustments, with the 1 - 2 year private enterprise private non - perpetual variety having an average increase of 9.7BP. Among real estate bonds, the 1 - 2 year state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual variety increased by 4.8BP. Most financial varieties saw yield increases, with specific increases varying by bond type [3][4]. Urban Investment Bonds Public Urban Investment Bonds - **Valuation Yields**: The weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were below 2.4%, while yields exceeding 4.5% were in Guizhou's prefecture - level and district - county levels. Other regions like Guangxi, Yunnan, and Gansu had relatively high spreads [2]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Yields mostly increased slightly. Larger - increase varieties included 2 - 3 year non - perpetual bonds of Sichuan provincial level, 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Anhui provincial level, within 1 year non - perpetual bonds of Guizhou prefecture - level cities, and within 1 year perpetual bonds of Hebei provincial level [2]. Private Urban Investment Bonds - **Valuation Yields**: Coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian had weighted average valuation yields below 2.8%. Yields higher than 4% were in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Yunnan. Regions like Heilongjiang, Qinghai, and Gansu had relatively high spreads [2]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Yields of most varieties increased. The varieties with larger upward ranges were 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Guangxi prefecture - level cities (9.9BP), 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Shaanxi district - county levels (9.7BP), 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Jilin prefecture - level cities (8.0BP), and 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Liaoning prefecture - level cities (7.7BP) [2]. Industrial Bonds - **Non - financial and Non - real estate Industrial Bonds (State - owned Enterprises)**: The yields of private and public bonds were mostly adjusted compared to the previous week, with different adjustment ranges for different maturities [12]. - **Non - financial and Non - real estate Industrial Bonds (Private Enterprises)**: The 1 - 2 year private non - perpetual variety had a relatively large upward range in yield, averaging 9.7BP [3]. - **Real Estate Bonds (State - owned Enterprises)**: The yields of private non - perpetual varieties increased more overall, with the 1 - 2 year variety rising 4.8BP [3]. - **Real Estate Bonds (Private Enterprises)**: No information on private bonds; for public bonds, some maturity varieties had yield decreases [12]. Financial Bonds - **Leasing Company Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 2 year private perpetual and within 1 year public perpetual varieties increased by more than 5BP [4]. - **General Commercial Financial Bonds**: The interest rate increase of each variety was less than 2BP [4]. - **Tier 2 Capital Bonds**: Among urban and rural commercial bank varieties, the 2 - 3 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds' yield increased by 9.8BP, while the 3 - 5 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds' yield decreased by more than 12BP [4]. - **Securities Company Bonds and Sub - bonds**: The yield increase of each maturity variety was controlled within 5BP [4].
2.3%以上的意外拉久期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-17 14:28
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As of June 16, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds mostly declined, while those of some bonds such as private perpetual bonds of state - owned enterprises within 1 year and 3 - 5 years increased. The yields of real estate bonds also mainly declined, especially those of private public non - perpetual bonds within 1 - 2 years, with a yield reduction of more than 4.5BP. In financial bonds, the varieties with higher valuation yields and spreads are leasing company bonds and capital supplementary tools of urban and rural commercial banks. More than half of the yields of financial bonds declined compared with last week [3][8]. - In public urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.4%. The urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. The spreads in other regions such as Yunnan and Gansu are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of public urban investment bonds generally declined, with an average decline of 3.7BP for 3 - 5 - year varieties [2][14]. - In private urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 2.8%. The varieties with yields higher than 4% appear in prefecture - level areas of Guizhou and Shaanxi, and prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Yunnan. The spreads in other areas such as Gansu and Heilongjiang are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the yields of private urban investment bonds basically declined, with an average decline of 3BP and 5BP for 2 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year varieties respectively [2][23]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chart 1: Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Outstanding Credit Bonds (as of June 16, unit: %) - Displays the weighted average valuation yields of different bond types (such as urban investment bonds, non - financial non - real estate industrial bonds, real estate bonds, etc.) in different time periods (1 year or less, 1 - 2 years, 2 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years) and different issuance methods (private or public) [10]. Chart 2: Weighted Average Spread of Outstanding Credit Bonds (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Presents the weighted average spreads of different bond types in different time periods and issuance methods, with the calculation benchmark being the same - term government - developed bonds [11]. Chart 3: Change in Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Outstanding Credit Bonds Compared with Last Week (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Shows the changes in the weighted average valuation yields of different bond types compared with last week, calculated as (this week's weighted average valuation yield - last week's weighted average valuation yield) * 100 [12]. Chart 4: Change in Weighted Average Spread of Outstanding Credit Bonds Compared with Last Week (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Illustrates the changes in the weighted average spreads of different bond types compared with last week, calculated as this week's weighted average spread - last week's weighted average spread [13]. Chart 5: Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Public Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: %) - Provides the weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in different administrative levels (provincial, prefecture - level, district - county - level) of various provinces [15]. Chart 6: Weighted Average Spread of Public Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Displays the weighted average spreads of public urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces, with the calculation benchmark being the same - term government - developed bonds [17]. Chart 7: Change in Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Public Urban Investment Bonds Compared with Last Week (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Shows the changes in the weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces compared with last week [20]. Chart 8: Weighted Average Valuation Yield of Private Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: %) - Presents the weighted average valuation yields of private urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces [24]. Chart 9: Weighted Average Spread of Private Urban Investment Bonds (as of June 16, unit: BP) - Displays the weighted average spreads of private urban investment bonds in different administrative levels of various provinces, with the calculation benchmark being the same - term government - developed bonds [26].
票息资产热度图谱:2.3%以上的下沉路径
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-20 14:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of May 19, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties. Compared with the previous week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds generally declined, with the 1 - 2 year private enterprise public and state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual bonds declining by 9bp and 5.9bp respectively, and the yields of most other varieties decreasing within 5bp. The yields of real estate bonds also mainly declined, especially the state - owned enterprise public non - perpetual bonds within 1 year and 1 - 2 years, which both saw a reduction of over 10bp. Among financial bonds, the varieties with high valuation yields and spreads were leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools. More than half of the financial bond yields declined compared to the previous week. Specifically, leasing bonds were the better - performing bonds among financial bonds, with the yields of 2 - 3 year private perpetual and non - perpetual bonds declining by 9.1bp and 4.9bp respectively. The performance of commercial financial bonds varied by term, with the yields of varieties within 1 year all decreasing, while most varieties over 1 year had varying degrees of adjustment, among which the 1 - 2 year large - bank commercial financial bonds had the largest adjustment range. Bank sub - bonds were slightly weak, with the yields of 3 - 5 year perpetual bonds consistently declining, especially the urban and rural commercial bank varieties, which declined by more than 3.5bp, and the 2 - year - within national and joint - stock bank Tier 2 perpetual bonds generally rebounded. In addition, the 1 - 2 year and 2 - 3 year private non - perpetual varieties of securities company bonds received some attention [3][4][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - As of May 19, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads. Compared with the previous week, non - financial and non - real estate industrial bond yields generally declined, and real estate bond yields also mainly declined. Financial bond yields had more than half declining, with leasing bonds performing well, commercial financial bonds showing term - based differentiation, bank sub - bonds being slightly weak, and some securities company bond varieties attracting attention [3][4][8]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were below 2.5%. Bonds with yields over 4.5% were in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. Yunnan, Gansu and other regions also had high spreads. Compared with the previous week, the yields basically declined, with the 1 - 2 year varieties having an average decline of 5.8bp. The varieties with larger yield declines included 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan prefecture - level cities, 2 - 3 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan prefecture - level cities, 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan district - counties, and non - perpetual bonds of Gansu prefecture - level cities within 1 year [2][14]. 3.2.2 Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian were below 3%. Varieties with yields higher than 4% were in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou and Yunnan, and prefecture - level areas of Shaanxi. Gansu, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and other regions also had high spreads. Compared with the previous week, the yields mainly declined. The varieties with larger yield declines included 2 - 3 year perpetual bonds of Shaanxi district - counties, 2 - 3 year non - perpetual bonds of Yunnan prefecture - level cities, non - perpetual bonds of Shanxi district - counties within 1 year, and 1 - 2 year non - perpetual urban investment bonds of Gansu prefecture - level cities [2]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds - Private enterprise industrial bonds had higher valuation yields and spreads. Non - financial and non - real estate industrial bond yields generally declined, with 1 - 2 year private enterprise public and state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual bonds declining by 9bp and 5.9bp respectively, and most other varieties having yield declines within 5bp. Real estate bond yields also mainly declined, especially state - owned enterprise public non - perpetual bonds within 1 year and 1 - 2 years, which had a reduction of over 10bp [3][8]. 3.4 Financial Bonds - Leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools had high valuation yields and spreads. More than half of the financial bond yields declined. Leasing bonds performed well, with 2 - 3 year private perpetual and non - perpetual bonds having yield declines of 9.1bp and 4.9bp respectively. Commercial financial bonds showed term - based differentiation, bank sub - bonds were slightly weak, and some securities company bond varieties received attention [4][8].
票息资产热度图谱:2.2%以上还有哪些债?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 14:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of April 28, 2025, in the stock of credit bonds, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. The yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, while the yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees. In financial bonds, the yields of most varieties have increased, with leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools having relatively high valuation yields and spreads [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 General Situation of Stock Credit Bonds - As of April 28, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds in the stock of credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, especially those of varieties over 1 year, with adjustments generally within 10bp. The yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased by 10.2bp and 4.3bp respectively. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees. In financial bonds, the varieties with high valuation yields and spreads are leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools. Compared with last week, the yields of most financial bond varieties have increased [3][8]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.6%. Urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are found in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. In other regions, the spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other places are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the performance of public urban investment bonds has differentiated among different terms. The average decline of varieties within 1 year is close to 0.2BP, while the yields of medium - and long - term bonds have mostly increased. The varieties with relatively large yield declines include non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Guizhou with a term of 2 - 3 years, perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Shaanxi within 1 year, non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Yunnan with a term of 1 - 2 years, and non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Liaoning within 1 year [2][13]. 3.2.2 Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of private urban investment bonds in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 3.1%. Varieties with yields higher than 4.5% are found in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou, Yunnan, and Liaoning. The spreads in Shaanxi, Hebei, Gansu and other places are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the proportion of yield increases of private urban investment bonds is relatively high, but there are also many cases of yield declines in varieties within 1 year. The varieties with relatively large yield declines include non - perpetual bonds of provincial - level in Shandong within 1 year, perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Jiangxi with a term of 2 - 3 years, non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Liaoning within 1 year, and non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Liaoning with a term of 2 - 3 years, with declines all exceeding 15bp [2][22]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds - The valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds in the stock of credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, especially those of varieties over 1 year, with adjustments generally within 10bp. The yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased by 10.2bp and 4.3bp respectively. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees [3][8]. 3.4 Financial Bonds - The varieties with high valuation yields and spreads in financial bonds are leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools. Compared with last week, the yields of most financial bond varieties have increased. Specifically, in leasing bonds, the yields of public non - perpetual bonds with a term of 1 - 3 years have increased by more than 5bp, while the yields of private perpetual varieties within 1 year have declined significantly. In commercial financial bonds, the yields of national and joint - stock banks and urban commercial banks within 1 year have slightly decreased, while the bonds of other terms have generally adjusted, with the 1 - 2 year term being the period with the largest correction. The yields of bank sub - bonds have basically increased, but except for the perpetual bonds of rural commercial banks with a term of 2 - 3 years and the secondary bonds of joint - stock banks with a term of 3 - 5 years, the yield increases of other varieties are below 5bp. In addition, private non - perpetual and public perpetual sub - bonds of securities companies within 1 year are favored [4][8].