债务化解
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股票债券“双跌”,寻求债券展期的万科,还有多少压力?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-27 13:40
Core Viewpoint - Vanke A's stock price has dropped over 7%, reaching a new low since August 2015, while its H-shares also fell significantly, indicating ongoing financial pressure on the company [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Vanke A closed at 5.47 yuan, down 7.13%, with a market capitalization of 653 billion yuan, marking a cumulative decline of 24.66% this year [2][3]. - The stock has been in a continuous decline for nearly six years, with a peak price of 36.37 yuan in 2018, representing a total drop of over 85% [2][3]. Group 2: Bond Market Activity - Vanke's bonds experienced significant volatility, with some bonds dropping over 17% on November 26, followed by a temporary recovery before being suspended due to exceeding a 30% drop [3][4]. - The "22 Vanke MTN004" bond is set for a holder meeting on December 10 to discuss extension matters, with a principal repayment date of December 15 and a remaining balance of 2 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Pressure and Debt Management - Vanke faces a funding gap of 63.91 billion yuan, with a total domestic debt of 217.98 billion yuan, and a repayment peak occurring in December [4][5]. - The company is expected to rely more on market-driven solutions for debt resolution, including asset sales and refinancing, as external financial support from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, may be limited [5].
山东省城投企业财务表现观察:债务化解取得一定成效,舆情管控力度仍需加强
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-11-26 11:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The debt resolution in Shandong Province has achieved certain results. The investment and debt growth rates of Shandong's urban investment companies have slowed down since 2024. Weifang City has benefited from debt - resolution policy support, with a decline in the debt scale of urban investment companies and an optimization of the debt structure. However, the overall debt burden of Shandong's urban investment companies is relatively heavy, the proportion of short - term debt is high, and the financing structure needs further optimization. In addition, negative public opinions of some urban investment companies have not been completely eliminated. In the short term, the implementation of the policies of "unified management of three types of debts" and "sinking all implicit debt replacement bonds to cities and counties" has a positive effect on alleviating the liquidity pressure of urban investment companies. In the long run, the core of future debt resolution lies in enhancing the self - hematopoietic ability of urban investment companies and accelerating their substantial transformation [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Debt Management in Shandong Province - **Overall Measures**: Since the implementation of the "package debt - resolution" plan, Shandong Province has taken diversified debt - resolution measures, including issuing 196.5 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds in 2024 to replace implicit debts. It has also coordinated with financial institutions, raised debt - resolution funds through various means, revitalized assets, deepened state - owned enterprise reforms, reduced the number of platforms, and promoted the transformation of enterprises into industrial - type ones [4] - **Policy Support**: In 2024 and 2025, Shandong Province issued a series of policies, such as the implementation of "unified management of three types of debts", the establishment of a financial enterprise alliance, and the promotion of the market - oriented transformation of government platforms. It is also planned to sink implicit debt replacement bonds to cities and counties and ensure the "zeroing out" of stock implicit debts by the end of 2028 [5] - **Regional Measures**: Different cities in Shandong have taken various debt - management measures, such as establishing working groups, strengthening debt monitoring, and implementing the "unified management of three types of debts". Some cities have also completed the replacement of high - interest debts and achieved certain results in debt resolution [6][7] - **Regional Achievements**: Some cities have achieved remarkable results. For example, Qingdao plans to receive an intentional investment of no less than 40 billion yuan from four major AMC in five years; Yantai has completed the replacement of high - interest urban investment debts with a comprehensive financing cost of 7% (inclusive) or above; Weifang has obtained a large amount of replacement bond quotas and carried out a "unified borrowing and repayment" replacement business [8] 2. Changes in Financial Indicators of Urban Investment Companies - **Investment**: Since 2024, the investment growth rate of Shandong's urban investment companies has continued to slow down, and the growth rates of self - operating assets, equity, and fund - type assets have exceeded those of urban construction - type assets. By the end of 2024, most regions had an increase in investment, except for Rizhao, Liaocheng, and Dongying. The regions with a relatively high proportion of urban construction - type assets include Weihai, Tai'an, etc.; those with a relatively high proportion of self - operating assets are Zibo, Jinan, and Yantai; and the regions with a relatively high proportion of equity and fund investment - type assets are Dezhou, Rizhao, and Weifang [11][13][14] - **Receivables**: Since 2024, the accounts receivable scale of Shandong's urban investment companies has continued to grow, but the overall growth rate has continued to slow down. The accounts receivable scales of Qingdao, Jinan, and Weifang are relatively large, and the growth rates of Liaocheng and Dezhou are relatively fast [16][18] - **Financing**: In 2024, the net cash inflow from financing activities of Shandong's urban investment companies continued to decline. The net inflow scale was relatively large in regions with solid economic foundations and strong financial strength, such as Qingdao and Jinan. The financing cash flow of Weifang's urban investment companies has been in a net outflow for three consecutive years, and the net cash flow from the financing activities of Weihai's urban investment companies has turned negative since 2023 [20][23] - **Interest - Bearing Debt**: The debt scale of Shandong's urban investment companies has continued to grow, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2024, the debt growth rates of Weifang and Rizhao were negative. The short - term debt proportion of most regions increased in 2024, except for some areas. The financing of urban investment companies still mainly relies on bank loans, and the proportion of other financing has fluctuated. In 2024, except for some regions, the proportion of other financing in most regions increased, and the financing structure needs further optimization [27][29][31] - **Debt Repayment Ability**: In 2024, the debt burden of Shandong's urban investment companies increased, and the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio further decreased. By the end of 2024, the total debt capitalization ratios of Zibo and Yantai were higher than the national average, and the cash - to - short - term - debt ratios of all regions in Shandong were lower than 0.60 times, indicating that urban investment companies still face relatively large pressure in debt repayment and liquidity [34][35] 3. Conclusion - **Achievements**: Shandong has used diversified means for debt resolution, achieving a slowdown in the growth rates of accounts receivable and debt scale of urban investment companies. The debt scale of Weifang's urban investment companies has decreased, and the debt structure has been optimized [38] - **Problems**: The overall debt burden of Shandong's urban investment companies is heavy, the proportion of short - term debt is high, and the financing structure needs further optimization. Negative public opinions in some cities have not been completely eliminated, and the regional financing environment needs improvement [38] - **Suggestions**: In the short term, the policies of "unified management of three types of debts" and "sinking all implicit debt replacement bonds to cities and counties" are helpful for alleviating liquidity pressure. In the long run, the key is to enhance the self - hematopoietic ability of urban investment companies and accelerate their substantial transformation [38]
全方位看待地方债务,在发展中化解隐债
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-11-25 12:44
Core Viewpoint - The purpose of debt resolution is to prevent excessive borrowing by local governments, reduce debt costs, and align debt financing with investment projects, rather than merely reducing the national debt scale or constraining local government financial capacity [1][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Local Government Debt - As of the end of 2023, the balance of local government hidden debt reached 14.3 trillion yuan, which the government acknowledges will need to be repaid in the future [2]. - Local government debt is often tied to financing platforms and state-owned enterprises, which, despite not being classified as hidden debt, still impose repayment pressures on local governments [2][3]. Infrastructure Investment - Local government borrowing is primarily used for infrastructure projects, which often suffer from poor planning, waste, and corruption [3]. - Despite some waste, infrastructure investments have significantly contributed to China's industrial upgrading and improved living standards over the past decade [3][4]. Economic Impact of Debt - Local government and financing platform debts are crucial for credit creation and demand growth in the economy [5]. - Since 2012, local government financing platforms and the real estate sector have been the main drivers of credit growth, accounting for over 70% of new credit [5]. Debt Management Strategies - Effective debt resolution requires a balance between increasing debt capacity and managing repayment risks, particularly in the context of current economic demand challenges [7][8]. - There is a need to expand general bonds and match debt issuance with the nature of investment projects, especially in rapidly growing areas [8][9]. Public Sector Debt Perspective - The rise in government debt is a common phenomenon in high-income countries, and while concerns about corruption and inefficiency exist, government debt plays a vital role in expanding demand [9][10]. - The focus should be on macroeconomic performance and demand balance rather than merely minimizing public sector debt [10].
贵州省发债城投企业财务表现观察:债务规模整体压降,融资结构有所改善,短期流动性仍承压
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-11-24 15:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Benefiting from the debt - resolution policy tilt towards key provinces, the release of special refinancing bonds and special new special bond quotas, and the orderly progress of debt - resolution measures such as debt extension, interest rate cuts, and replacement of financing platforms, the overall debt risk in Guizhou Province has been further mitigated. The debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises has continued to decline, and the financing structure has improved, but short - term solvency and liquidity still face significant pressure, and the net financing amount shows obvious regional differentiation. - In the short term, the debt resolution of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Guizhou Province still relies on the "combination punch" of debt - resolution policies to reduce debt risks, with obvious regional differentiation and greater difficulty in improving the financial fundamentals of tail - end regions. In the long run, urban investment enterprises need to "develop while resolving debts and resolve debts while developing", promoting high - quality economic development through optimizing the investment structure and expanding domestic demand to create conditions for debt resolution [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Guizhou Province's Debt Control Situation - In 2024, Guizhou's debt ratio continued to rise, with Guiyang, Zunyi, and Liupanshui exceeding the provincial average. The overall debt risk was further mitigated due to policy support and debt - resolution measures [5]. - From the end of 2022 to 2024, Guizhou's comprehensive financial resources continued to grow, but the growth rate dropped significantly in 2024. Government debt balance increased, while the debt balance of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises decreased. Both the government debt ratio and the broad - sense government debt ratio continued to rise [5]. - By the end of 2024, government debt in Guizhou was mainly concentrated in the provincial - level, Guiyang, and Zunyi, accounting for 50.43% of the total. Liupanshui, Tongren, and Qianxinan had relatively fast - growing government debt balances. Most prefecture - level cities' government debt ratios exceeded 160%, and some cities' broad - sense government debt ratios were above the provincial average [6]. - In 2024, a series of debt - resolution policies were introduced. Guizhou received 352.8 billion yuan of the new local government debt quota from the central government for debt replacement, and 800 billion yuan was allocated annually from new local government special bonds for five years starting from 2024. From 2024 to September 2025, Guizhou issued 226.843 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds and 64.99 billion yuan of special new special bonds [8]. - The provincial and local governments actively promoted debt - resolution work. Various cities and counties achieved certain results, such as some areas changing their debt risk levels and reducing debt ratios [9][10][11]. 3.2 Changes in Financial Indicators of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guizhou Province Investment - From 2024 to the first half of 2025, the investment growth of Guizhou's urban investment enterprises further slowed down, and the investment structure continued to be adjusted, but the proportion of urban - construction assets was still much higher than the national average. The investment scale of provincial - level and Guiyang's urban investment enterprises increased, and most prefecture - level cities still mainly invested in urban - construction assets, while Anshun and Tongren had relatively high proportions of self - operated assets, equity, and fund - type investments [12][13]. - From 2022 to the end of June 2025, the overall investment scale of urban investment enterprises continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down from 2.29% at the end of 2022 to 0.11% at the end of June 2025. The scale of urban - construction assets fluctuated and decreased, while self - operated assets and equity and fund - type investments fluctuated and increased. As of the end of June 2025, urban - construction assets accounted for 72.73%, self - operated assets 19.34%, and equity and fund - type assets 7.94% [15]. - Regionally, provincial - level, Guiyang, Tongren, and Qianxinan's urban - construction asset investments increased, while Bijie and Zunyi had significant declines. In terms of self - operated asset investment, provincial - level, Anshun, Qiannan, and Qianxinan had growth rates exceeding 5%. In terms of equity and fund - type investment, except for Zunyi, provincial - level, Guiyang, and Liupanshui had growth, and Qiannan's total investment decreased the most at the end of June 2025 [16]. 回款 - From 2024 to the first half of 2025, the accounts receivable scale of Guizhou's urban investment enterprises continued to expand, but the growth rate slowed down, and the cash - income ratio remained at a high level. Guiyang, Zunyi, Liupanshui, and Bijie had large accounts receivable scales, with Zunyi's decreasing and Guiyang's growing rapidly. In 2024, Bijie's回款 was poor, while provincial - level, Guiyang, Zunyi, and Qianxinan had relatively good回款 [18]. - From 2022 to the end of June 2025, the accounts receivable scale of urban investment enterprises continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. The cash - income ratio was above 85%. At the end of June 2025, Guiyang, Zunyi, Liupanshui, and Bijie had accounts receivable exceeding 20 billion yuan, accounting for 73.25% of the total. In 2024 - 2025, Zunyi's accounts receivable decreased, and Bijie's cash - income ratio was less than 30% [21][22]. Fund - raising - In 2024, the fund - raising activities of Guizhou's urban investment enterprises showed a net inflow, but the scale was much narrower than in 2022 due to restricted new financing. There was obvious regional differentiation, with provincial - level and Guiyang having large net inflows, while Zunyi, Liupanshui, Tongren, and Qiandongnan had continuous net outflows, and Zunyi's net outflow exceeded 10 billion yuan in 2024 [23]. - From 2022 - 2024, the cash inflow from fund - raising activities decreased significantly, and the cash outflow fluctuated and decreased. In 2024, provincial - level, Guiyang, and Zunyi had large inflows, and provincial - level, Bijie, Anshun, and Qiannan had growth rates exceeding 20%. Provincial - level, Guiyang, Bijie, Anshun, and Qiannan had net inflows, while others had net outflows. From January - June 2025, only provincial - level and Liupanshui had net inflows [26][27]. Interest - bearing Debt - From 2024 to the first half of 2025, the debt scale of Guizhou's urban investment enterprises continued to decline, with debt concentrated in provincial - level, Guiyang, Zunyi, and Liupanshui. Provincial - level debt increased, while Zunyi and Liupanshui had significant declines. The overall short - term debt ratio changed little, and the short - term debt ratios of provincial - level, Bijie, Liupanshui, and Tongren decreased to a low level. The financing structure was still dominated by bank loans, with bond financing decreasing and other financing increasing [28]. - From 2024 - June 2025, the debt scale of urban investment enterprises continued to decline. At the end of June 2025, provincial - level, Guiyang, Zunyi, and Liupanshui had high debt scales, accounting for 78.13% of the total. In 2024, provincial - level and Tongren's debt increased, while others decreased. At the end of June 2025, Liupanshui and Qianxinan's debt increased slightly, while others decreased [31]. - The debt term structure was mainly long - term debt, and the short - term debt ratio was 21.83% at the end of June 2025. Provincial - level, Bijie, Liupanshui, and Tongren's short - term debt ratios were below 20%, and Qiandongnan's was the highest at 28.88% [32]. - From 2022 - 2024, bank loans and bond financing decreased, while other financing increased. Bank loans and other financing accounted for 67.22% and 13.89% respectively, and bond financing accounted for 18.89%. Regionally, provincial - level and Guiyang's bank loans increased, and most cities' bond financing decreased. Tongren and Zunyi's other financing grew rapidly, while Zunyi and Anshun's decreased slightly [33]. Solvency - At the end of June 2025, the overall debt ratio of Guizhou's urban investment enterprises decreased, but the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio dropped to a low level. Regionally, Tongren's debt ratio was high, and Zunyi, Bijie, and Anshun faced great short - term solvency pressure [35]. - From 2022 - June 2025, the overall asset - liability ratio increased, the total debt capitalization ratio decreased, and the cash - to - short - term - debt ratio fluctuated and decreased to 0.24 times. At the end of June 2025, Tongren's total debt capitalization ratio exceeded 50%, and Zunyi, Bijie, and Anshun's cash - to - short - term - debt ratios were no more than 0.10 times [36]. 3.3 Summary - Since 2024, Guizhou's government debt ratio has continued to rise, with some cities exceeding the provincial average. The overall debt risk has been mitigated due to policy support. - The debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises has decreased, and the financing structure has improved, but there are still problems such as high short - term solvency pressure, unoptimized financing structure in some regions, obvious regional differentiation in net financing, and slow investment growth. - In the short term, debt - resolution relies on policies, and in the long term, urban investment enterprises need to promote economic development to resolve debts [37][39].
涨停收盘、成交超亿元 苏宁易购“一边止血,一边输血”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 09:46
Core Viewpoint - Suning.com is actively working on debt restructuring to clarify its complex debt relationships and reduce operational risks, with an expected profit increase of approximately 560 million yuan after the completion of the restructuring agreements [2][3]. Group 1: Debt Restructuring Efforts - On November 12, Suning.com announced a debt restructuring agreement with several companies, aiming to terminate the execution of certain debt transfer arrangements [2]. - The company reported a decrease in its asset-liability ratio by 0.49% compared to the beginning of the period, with a current asset-liability ratio of 90.67% as of June 30, 2025 [2]. - The restructuring is part of Suning's broader strategy to address its high debt levels, which has become a focal point for market attention [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Position - Suning.com provided a guarantee of up to 706 million yuan for its subsidiary, which represents 5.68% of the company's audited net assets for 2024 [3]. - The company reported a 48% year-on-year increase in sales during the Double 11 shopping festival in county markets, and an 85% increase in sales of customized home appliances [3]. - Despite a 13.11% decline in stock price this year, the company is focusing on its core home appliance business to enhance competitiveness in a challenging market [3].
涨停收盘、成交超亿元,苏宁易购“一边止血,一边输血”
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-11-13 09:41
Core Viewpoint - Suning.com is actively working on debt restructuring to clarify its complex debt relationships and reduce operational risks, while also focusing on enhancing its core business in the competitive retail market [1][2] Group 1: Debt Restructuring - On November 12, Suning.com announced a debt restructuring agreement with several companies, aiming to terminate the execution of certain debt transfer arrangements, which will result in an expected profit increase of approximately 560 million yuan [1] - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased by 0.49% compared to the beginning of the period, standing at 90.67% as of June 30, 2025, indicating ongoing efforts to manage high debt levels [1] Group 2: Financial Guarantees and Business Focus - Suning.com provided a guarantee of up to 706 million yuan for its subsidiary, which represents 5.68% of the company's audited net assets for 2024, indicating a strategy to support its subsidiaries while taking on additional financial pressure [2] - During the Double 11 sales event, Suning.com reported a 48% year-on-year increase in sales in county markets and an 85% increase in customized home appliances, highlighting a focus on the 3C home appliance sector and emerging market trends [2] Group 3: Market Performance - Year-to-date, Suning.com's stock price has decreased by 13.11%, and while the company achieved a "limit-up" in stock trading, maintaining sustainable profitability in its core business remains a critical challenge [2]
徐曙海研究“四上”单位列统入库工作时强调 全力推动“四上”单位培育纳统 为全市经济高质量发展积蓄动能
Zhen Jiang Ri Bao· 2025-10-30 23:25
Core Points - The meeting led by Mayor Xu Shuhai focused on the inclusion of "Four Up" units into statistical databases, aiming to enhance both the quantity and quality of these units in the city [1][2] - The emphasis was placed on shifting the focus towards economic and social development while ensuring financial stability, with a goal to improve the city's ranking in provincial quality assessments [1] Group 1 - "Four Up" units are identified as a crucial engine for economic growth, necessitating precise identification of potential units for inclusion [2] - The city aims to ensure that the net increase of "Four Up" units ranks higher within the province, with a focus on data-driven strategies to support this goal [2] - There is a call for enhanced training and monitoring of enterprises to ensure effective support for prospective "Four Up" units [2] Group 2 - Responsibilities are to be clearly defined among various sectors and units, with effective incentives and strict statistical enforcement to ensure comprehensive inclusion of units [2] - Key stakeholders are urged to actively engage in coordination and support for the cultivation and inclusion of "Four Up" units, contributing to the city's high-quality economic development [2]
持续盈利,苏宁易购前三季度净利润0.73亿元
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-30 14:10
Core Insights - Suning.com reported a revenue of 38.131 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.29%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 73 million yuan, maintaining profitability despite external challenges [1][2] - The company is actively responding to market pressures by advancing its large store strategy and enhancing customer experience, with a 3.5% year-on-year increase in store sales revenue and a 5.4% increase in comparable store sales [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Suning.com achieved a revenue of 38.131 billion yuan, with a net profit of 73 million yuan [1] - The company reported a debt reduction of 280 million yuan through a debt settlement agreement, which is expected to increase net profit by approximately 264 million yuan [2] Market Context - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated a relatively stable domestic demand, but the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods declined in September due to the phasing out of the old-for-new policy and a high base from the previous year [1] - Data from Aowei Cloud Network showed a 19.2% year-on-year decline in retail sales of home appliances in September, indicating a shift from growth to decline in the industry [1] Strategic Initiatives - Suning.com opened and upgraded 32 new Suning Max and Suning Pro stores in the third quarter, enhancing brand reputation and customer experience [2] - The company is focusing on the county and town markets by advancing the construction of retail cloud stores, with retail cloud business sales increasing by 7% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - Suning.com plans to leverage promotional opportunities during the National Day and "Double Eleven" shopping festivals to boost sales and deepen strategic partnerships with brand manufacturers [2] - The company aims to continue its debt resolution efforts to improve its asset-liability ratio and ensure sustainable operations and long-term development [2]
苏宁易购前三季度营收381.31亿元 同比增0.29%
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2025-10-30 13:51
Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 38.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 73 million yuan, maintaining profitability despite external challenges [1][2] Group 1: Business Strategy and Performance - The company continues to advance its large store strategy, enhancing store experience and brand reputation, with 32 new or upgraded Suning Max and Suning Pro stores opened in the third quarter [1] - Store sales revenue increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while comparable store revenue grew by 5.4%, highlighting the ongoing advantages of offline experiential consumption [1] - In the county and town markets, the company is actively developing retail cloud large stores, with retail cloud business sales revenue increasing by 7% year-on-year in the third quarter [1] Group 2: Debt Management - The company announced a debt settlement that resulted in a debt reduction of 280 million yuan, which is expected to alleviate debt pressure and improve operational performance, potentially increasing net profit attributable to shareholders by approximately 264 million yuan [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - For the fourth quarter, the company plans to leverage promotional opportunities during the National Day and "Double Eleven" shopping festivals, deepen strategic cooperation with brand partners, and optimize supply chain and channel resources to boost consumer demand and sales [2] - The company will continue its efforts in debt resolution to steadily improve its asset-liability ratio, laying a solid foundation for sustainable operations and long-term development [2]
苏宁易购:前三季度营收381.31亿元,同比增0.29%
Xin Lang Ke Ji· 2025-10-30 12:56
Core Insights - Suning.com reported a revenue of 38.131 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.29%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 73 million yuan, maintaining profitability [1] Financial Performance - The company opened and upgraded 32 new Suning Max and Suning Pro stores in the third quarter [1] - Store sales revenue increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while comparable store sales rose by 5.4% [1] - Retail cloud business sales revenue grew by 7% year-on-year in the third quarter [1] Debt Management - Suning.com announced a debt settlement that reduced debts by 280 million yuan, which is expected to increase net profit attributable to shareholders by approximately 264 million yuan [1] Future Outlook - The company plans to leverage promotional periods such as National Day and "Double Eleven" to boost sales and deepen strategic cooperation with brand partners [1] - Ongoing efforts to resolve debts will continue to improve the company's asset-liability ratio, laying a solid foundation for sustainable operations and long-term development [1]