Core Viewpoint - Moody's analyst Stefan Angrick indicates that global economic growth may slow to just above 2% in 2025 and 2026, down from nearly 3% in 2024 due to uncertainties stemming from changes in U.S. trade policy [1] Group 1: Economic Growth - Global economic growth is projected to decline from nearly 3% in 2024 to just above 2% in 2025 and 2026 [1] - The slowdown is attributed to disruptions caused by U.S. trade, fiscal spending, and immigration policy fluctuations [1] Group 2: Risks to Economic Outlook - Major risks to the already dim economic outlook include new tariff threats, financial market volatility, and geopolitical hotspots [1] - Increased military conflicts have heightened uncertainty, leading central banks to act cautiously regarding policy changes [1] Group 3: Business Environment - The growing uncertainty complicates planning, resulting in delayed investment decisions and hiring, putting pressure on businesses [1] - Economic growth is slowing, and employment conditions are also deteriorating [1]

Group 1 - The recent tariff increase by the Trump administration, ranging from 25% to 40% on several countries, has exceeded market expectations and reflects a shift towards aggressive trade protectionism [3][4] - The imposition of tariffs on traditional allies like Japan and South Korea indicates a broader strategy beyond just targeting China, potentially reshaping regional economic dynamics [3][4] - The immediate market reaction includes a significant drop in U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones falling 422 points, highlighting investor concerns over future uncertainty and growth expectations [2][3] Group 2 - The tariff hikes are expected to increase corporate costs, compress profit margins, and restrict international trade activities, which could lead to a restructuring of global supply chains [3][6] - Emerging economies such as South Africa, South Korea, and Japan are experiencing currency depreciation, which may exacerbate capital outflow risks and increase import costs, leading to inflationary pressures [6][7] - The trade protectionism measures reflect an attempt by the U.S. to adjust its power within the global economic system, potentially prompting affected countries to seek alternative markets and strengthen regional economic alliances [7][9]

Group 1 - UBS's latest report addresses ten global economic concerns, including tariff impacts and dollar depreciation, highlighting the complexity of current global economic challenges [1][2] - The report indicates that U.S. tariffs equate to a tax of approximately 1.5% of GDP on importers, with annual tariff revenues exceeding $300 billion [2][5] - Global growth tracking shows a mere 1.3% annualized growth rate, placing it in the 8th percentile historically [5][6] Group 2 - UBS maintains a cyclical bearish view on the dollar but does not foresee a long-term depreciation trend [9][10] - The report suggests that the current dollar sell-off is driven by increased hedging demand, a cyclical slowdown in the U.S. economy, and improving growth trends in other regions [10][11] Group 3 - Tariffs have a delayed impact on inflation, with UBS estimating a 1.1% increase in PCE prices due to tariffs, which has yet to be reflected in official CPI data [11][13] - The report anticipates that the significant effects of tariffs on major inflation indicators will become evident in the July CPI data [14][19] Group 4 - UBS expresses concerns about the long-term supply of U.S. Treasuries, with a potential bottom for the 10-year yield at 2.75% [25] - Evidence of foreign investors reducing exposure to U.S. assets is noted, with net sales of $50.6 billion in U.S. long-term securities in April [26][29] Group 5 - The report highlights that European equities present a valuation advantage over U.S. stocks, with adjusted P/E ratios for European stocks being 25% lower than those in the U.S. [36] - UBS expects the "Big Beautiful Plan" to contribute approximately 45 basis points to U.S. growth before fiscal drag becomes apparent [40][43] Group 6 - Central banks are shifting towards more accommodative policies in response to tariff impacts, with developed market rates declining by an average of 30 basis points since April [44] - China is expected to implement additional fiscal stimulus measures, with a projected increase in the fiscal deficit to 1.5-2% of GDP [49][52]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank anticipates a slowdown in global economic growth over the next few quarters under the baseline scenario [1] Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank's forecast indicates that economic growth will decelerate, reflecting broader trends in the global economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, highlighting the potential impact on the oil market and specific companies within the oil and gas sector. Group 1: Oil Price Fluctuations - On June 13, international oil prices surged by nearly 14%, following a previous increase of about 6%, driven by U.S. personnel withdrawal from the Middle East and rising geopolitical concerns [1][3] - The oil and gas sector in Hong Kong saw substantial gains, with companies like Shandong Molong rising by 75% and Sinopec Oilfield Services increasing by 25% [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - The article notes that Israel conducted unexpected military strikes against Iran, targeting key nuclear facilities and high-ranking officials, which escalated tensions in the region [4][5] - Iran's response included launching over 100 drones and hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israeli targets, although the effectiveness of this retaliation has been questioned [5][6] Group 3: Potential Oil Market Impact - The possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route, could lead to a significant spike in oil prices, with estimates suggesting prices could reach between $120 to $300 per barrel if such a blockade occurs [9][10][12] - Historical context indicates that while Iran has threatened to block the Strait in the past, actual implementation is complicated by economic self-interest and external pressures [10][11][12] Group 4: Company Performance and Outlook - Despite the volatility in oil prices, companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) have shown resilience, with a significant increase in net profit margins compared to its peers [17][19] - CNOOC's operational efficiency is highlighted by its lower production costs, which are around $28.5 per barrel, allowing it to maintain profitability even during price fluctuations [19][20] - The company is expected to continue increasing its oil production, with projections of 726.8 million barrels for 2024, reflecting a 7.2% year-on-year growth [20][23] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that if geopolitical tensions continue to rise, the oil and gas sector in Hong Kong could experience a positive market response, particularly for smaller-cap oil stocks [24][25] - CNOOC is positioned as a strong investment choice due to its cost advantages and consistent dividend payouts, making it attractive in a market with reduced risk appetite [25]

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank forecasts a significant slowdown in global economic growth, predicting a growth rate of only 2.3% in 2025, the lowest since 2008 [1] - Nearly 70% of economies have downgraded their growth expectations due to escalating trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and rising protectionism [1] Regional Performance - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to perform relatively well, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2025, accelerating to around 4% in the following two years [1] - Morocco shows strong economic resilience, with GDP growth expected to be 3.6% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, surpassing the regional average [1] Economic Recovery Factors - Morocco's economic recovery is attributed to macroeconomic stability and a rebound in the industrial sector, particularly in construction and energy infrastructure investments [1] - The country benefits from declining inflation and a rebound in domestic demand, although this recovery is heavily reliant on stable food and energy prices, export growth, and relative geopolitical stability in the region [1] Challenges and Risks - Morocco faces high public debt pressure and limited fiscal space, with tax reform effects yet to materialize [2] - Global monetary policy tightening, capital flow volatility, and increasing regional security risks could impact Morocco's economy [2] - The World Bank warns that ongoing global protectionism may suppress investor confidence and reduce foreign investment inflows, posing new external risks for emerging economies like Morocco [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on US dollar assets, recommending investors to overweight US stocks, US Treasuries, and US investment-grade corporate credit, while expressing a bearish view on the US dollar due to narrowing economic growth and yield differentials with other countries [1][4]. Economic Forecasts - The forecast for the S&P 500 index is set at 6,000 for June 2025, with a range of 4,900 in a bear scenario and 7,200 in a bull scenario by Q2 2026 [2]. - Global GDP growth is expected to decline from 3.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with US GDP growth slowing from 2.5% to 1.0% over the same period [3][8]. Asset Class Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality cyclical stocks and large-cap defensive stocks in the US, while in Europe, sectors such as defense, banking, software, telecommunications, and diversified finance are recommended for overweighting [5]. - Emerging markets should focus on financial sectors and companies with strong profitability, favoring domestic businesses over export-oriented firms [5]. Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - The US dollar index (DXY) is projected to decline by 9% to 91 by mid-2026, influenced by converging US interest rates and economic growth with other countries [9]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to drop to 4.00% by the end of 2025, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut rates by 175 basis points in 2026 [9][10]. Commodity Market Insights - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply increases, with Brent crude projected to fall to the low $50 range by mid-2026 [11]. - Gold is favored as a safe-haven asset, supported by strong central bank demand and ETF inflows, while industrial metals may face downward price risks due to potential economic slowdowns [12].

Core Viewpoint - The OECD has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, indicating a weakening growth momentum and increasing risks in the global economy [1][10]. Group 1: Trade Barriers and Economic Policies - Trade barriers and economic policy uncertainty are identified as primary reasons for the global economic slowdown, with increased tariffs and trade restrictions disrupting supply chains and diminishing business and consumer confidence [3][4]. - The report highlights a notable slowdown in growth among North American economies, particularly the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, due to trade tensions impacting the largest economies [3][4]. - The U.S. inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 3.2% and 2.8%, respectively, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that could lead to continued tight monetary policies by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 2: Impact of Protectionism - The rise of protectionism and trade barriers is harming global supply chain efficiency, increasing business costs, and ultimately affecting consumer prices, leading to constrained economic vitality and reduced global trade and investment flows [4][6]. - The fragmentation of trade is undermining the stability of the multilateral trading system, with historical evidence suggesting that rising protectionism hampers economic growth and leads to a "zero-sum game" scenario [6][7]. Group 3: Call for Cooperation - OECD Chief Economist Pereira emphasizes the necessity for countries to engage in sincere negotiations to avoid further trade fragmentation, advocating for multilateral cooperation and trade liberalization as essential for sustainable global economic growth [9][10]. - The report warns that the ongoing trade barriers could exacerbate international tensions and complicate global political dynamics, highlighting the need for stable and rule-based economic development rather than short-term protective measures [7][10].

金十数据5月29日讯，油价上涨，但回吐了盘中早些时候的部分涨幅。周三美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗 普总统的全面"解放日"关税不合法后，布伦特原油早盘一度攀升至65.50美元的高位。这一裁决提振了 市场的风险偏好情绪，缓解了对全球经济增长放缓的担忧。白宫表示将对该裁决提出上诉。此外，美国 可能对俄罗斯实施新制裁，威胁减少石油出口，这也推动油价小幅走高。不过，欧佩克+可能在7月增 产的预期在一定程度上抵消了这一影响。 美法院裁定关税非法推升油价后回落 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's committee member, Toyoaki Nakamura, indicates that Japan's economy is facing increasing downward pressure due to a slowdown in global economic growth and deteriorating profitability in the automotive sector [1] Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is slowing, which is impacting Japan's economic stability [1] - The automotive industry is experiencing worsening profitability, contributing to the economic challenges faced by Japan [1]