公共债务的增长并不可怕，合理的增长是稳定经济、促进社会发展和应对危机的主要手段 文 | 邓宇 公共债务的增长与经济增长并非正相关，二者更多体现为结构性的平衡。自2008年全球金融危机以来，全球公共债务规模大规模增加，债务风险存在同步 上升的趋势。历史上多次金融危机表明，过度举债以及财政过度扩张是政府破产的主因，而且引发政治危机和社会危机。短期而言，大规模的公共债务增 长的溢出风险可能不会较快显现，但中长期却会逐渐溢出，制约财政预算平衡，一旦经济增长失速将会导致财政赤字扩张，并反过来加剧公共债务风险， 不利于经济稳定增长。 有关公共债务的历史演进的代表性著作包括英国经济史与金融史学者詹姆斯·麦克唐纳出版的《债务与国家的崛起：西方民主制度的金融起源》、美国人 类学家大卫·格雷伯出版的《债：5000年债务史》，以及美国经济学者巴里·艾兴格林等学者联合出版的《全球公共债务：经验、危机与应对》等，从不同 维度揭示了公共债务的发展史。 近年来有关债务危机的著作颇多，美国桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧出版的《债务危机：我的应对原则》《国家如何破产：大周期》，以及荷兰经济学者杰 姆斯·鲁斯出版的《主权债务简史：金融的结构性权力和国 ...

Core Insights - Kenya's public debt has surpassed 12 trillion Kenyan Shillings for the first time, reaching 12.06 trillion by September 2025, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.3% [1] Debt Composition - The domestic debt amounts to 6.66 trillion Kenyan Shillings, representing 37.2% of GDP, while external debt stands at 5.39 trillion Kenyan Shillings, accounting for 30.1% of GDP [1] Year-on-Year Growth - Compared to the previous year, public debt increased by 11.7% from 10.79 trillion Kenyan Shillings [1] Recent Changes - Between June and September 2025, Kenya's public debt net increased by approximately 250 billion Kenyan Shillings, with domestic borrowing rising by about 340 billion and external debt decreasing by around 80 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Spanish central bank emphasizes the need for Spain to implement measures to reduce spending and address public debt, which exceeds 100% of economic output [1] Group 1: Public Debt and Financial Stability - The Spanish central bank's semi-annual financial stability report indicates that public debt will remain at a "high level" both historically and within Europe [1] - The central bank warns that high debt levels make Spain vulnerable to sudden changes in market financing conditions, particularly those stemming from political instability in France or the United States [1] Group 2: Future Financial Challenges - The report highlights that financing needs in the coming years will be particularly severe due to factors such as population aging, geopolitical tensions, digital transformation, and climate change [1] - These challenges will necessitate increased public spending, which, if not offset by compensatory measures, could exacerbate public financial imbalances [1]

Core Viewpoint - Croatia's public debt has reached €50.93 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% while the debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased to 57.5% from 59.3% a year earlier, primarily due to nominal GDP growth [1][1][1] Summary by Relevant Categories Debt Levels - As of the end of June, Croatia's total government debt stands at €50.93 billion [1] - The debt increased by €0.3 billion compared to the end of the first quarter, representing a growth rate of 0.6% [1] Debt-to-GDP Ratio - The debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased to 57.5%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous year's 59.3% [1] - The reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio is attributed to the growth in nominal GDP [1]

Core Insights - Chile's government debt reached a total of $143.39 billion by the end of Q3, equivalent to 42.7% of the projected GDP for the quarter, exceeding the 2025 target of 42.4% set in the Public Finance Report [1] - This level of public debt is the highest recorded since 1991, indicating a worsening of public financial conditions [1] - The Ministry of Finance anticipates that government debt may rise to 43.2% of GDP next year [1]

Core Insights - As of October 1, Azerbaijan's foreign exchange reserves exceeded $81.5 billion, reflecting a 14.7% increase since the beginning of the year, sufficient to cover 37 months of imports [1] - The public debt stands at 253.7 billion manats ($14.92 billion), which is 19.5% of GDP, with internal debt at 170.5 billion manats ($10.03 billion) and external debt at 83.2 billion manats ($4.89 billion) [1] - The Central Bank forecasts a GDP growth rate of 2.2% for 2025, with the non-oil and gas sector expected to grow by 3.7%, and a GDP growth rate of 2% for 2026, with the non-oil and gas sector projected to grow by 4.4% [1]

Group 1 - Gold futures prices have risen significantly, trading at $4,075, up over $75 from the day's low, with gold-related ETFs showing relative strength [1] - Concerns about the U.S. economy are increasing due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is supporting gold as a traditional store of value [1] - Long-term concerns regarding global monetary credit and public debt are driving demand for precious metals, while short-term events have led to reduced volatility [1] Group 2 - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold production reached 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons or 1.39% year-on-year, with imported gold contributing 121.149 tons, up 8.94% [2] - Total gold production in China for the first three quarters of 2025 was 392.931 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.60% [2] - Gold consumption in China decreased to 682.730 tons, down 7.95% year-on-year, with significant declines in gold jewelry consumption, while gold bars and coins saw a 24.55% increase [2]

Core Insights - Cameroon is projected to achieve a GDP growth rate exceeding 4% by 2025, with public debt expected to account for 42% of GDP, which is below the CEMAC's 70% threshold [2][3] Economic Strategy - The economic development path of Cameroon focuses on industrialization, modernization of infrastructure, and economic diversification [2] - The National Development Strategy (NDS) has four main pillars: structural transformation and diversification, human capital development, employment and inclusiveness, and good governance [2] Challenges - Current challenges include mobilizing resources for national investment plans, controlling debt costs, modernizing the production sector, and integrating youth and women into the growth process [2] Partnership with Afreximbank - The partnership between Cameroon and the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is emphasized, highlighting the bank's contributions to infrastructure and financial projects [3] - Specific projects funded by Afreximbank include financing for the Douala Port Authority's container terminal, support for rural electrification projects in over 2,000 locations, and investment in interchangeable government bonds to support public finances [3] - A support package of €380 million will be provided starting from July 2025 through direct loans and guarantees from local banks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of central banks is crucial for economic stability, especially in the current international context where political pressures can undermine effective monetary policy [1][14]. Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence is essential for implementing necessary and sometimes difficult decisions, as political systems tend to focus on short-term goals [1][14]. - The independence of central banks allows for a long-term perspective in monetary policy, which is vital for sustainable economic outcomes [14][15]. Group 2: Israel's Economic Transformation - Israel's economic success in the 1990s was attributed to a comprehensive strategy that included stabilizing inflation, reducing budget deficits, developing capital markets, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility [2][12]. - The influx of highly skilled immigrants and improved geopolitical conditions contributed to Israel's transformation into a "startup nation," with high-tech exports accounting for over half of its total exports [2][12]. Group 3: Global Economic Governance - The shift from globalization to fragmentation is concerning, as countries are increasingly competing rather than cooperating, which can lead to unhealthy economic practices [6][8]. - China is recognized as a vital player in the global economy and should take on a larger role in global governance, responding to traditional systems' inadequacies [3][8]. Group 4: Emerging Markets Representation - Emerging markets have shown resilience and performed better than developed countries in recent years, but their representation in international institutions like the IMF does not reflect their economic weight [7][8]. - There is a growing recognition of the need to enhance the representation of emerging markets in global governance structures [7]. Group 5: Debt and Economic Stability - The accumulation of public debt is a long-term issue resulting from persistent budget and current account deficits, which can lead to systemic risks [9][10]. - Responsible government behavior and the development of robust capital markets are essential to manage high debt levels and maintain economic stability [10]. Group 6: Lessons from Israel - The experience of Israel in achieving price stability and economic openness can serve as a model for other emerging or middle-income economies [14][15]. - Effective public communication and building public support for monetary policy are critical for central banks to maintain their independence and achieve economic stability [15].

Core Viewpoint - The era dominated by Greece's high public debt in global economic news is coming to an end, as the country's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline significantly in the coming years [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Debt Levels - Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decrease to 145.4% in the current year and further to 137.6% next year, down from a historical peak of nearly 210% in 2020 and slightly below 147.8% in 2010 [1] Economic Growth - The increase in GDP year-on-year is contributing to the reduction in the debt ratio, indicating a positive trend in economic performance [1] Financial Stability - Greece has sufficient cash reserves and primary surpluses to cover interest payments on its debt, allowing the government to meet debt costs without the need for additional borrowing [1]