Core Insights - Serbia's public debt decreased to €38.55 billion by the end of June 2025, representing a reduction of €320 million compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 43.7%, a decline of 3.5 percentage points from the previous year [1] Debt Overview - Total public debt as of June 2025 stands at €38.55 billion [1] - The reduction in debt size indicates a positive trend in fiscal management [1] Economic Impact - The decrease in debt-to-GDP ratio suggests improved economic stability and potential for future growth [1] - The significant drop in the debt ratio may enhance investor confidence in Serbia's economic policies [1]

Core Insights - Ghana's public debt decreased by 139 billion cedis in the first half of 2025, from 752.1 billion cedis at the beginning of the year to 613 billion cedis by the end of June [1] - External debt reached 300.3 billion cedis (approximately 29.1 billion USD), accounting for 21.4% of GDP, while domestic debt fell to 312.7 billion cedis, representing 22.3% of GDP [1] - Despite the reduction in debt, economists warn of structural risks due to heavy reliance on external financing, which could reverse the current progress if the cedi depreciates significantly or global financial conditions tighten [1]

Core Viewpoint - Germany's public debt is projected to reach a record €2.5105 trillion by the end of 2024, marking a 2.6% increase from €2.4451 trillion at the end of 2023 [1] Debt Composition - The public debt includes liabilities from the federal government, states, municipalities, municipal associations, and social security [1] - Municipalities and municipal associations have seen a continuous increase for the fifth consecutive year, with a growth rate of 10.3%, totaling €170.5 billion [1] - Federal government debt has increased by 2.1%, reaching €1.7327 trillion [1] Per Capita Debt - As of the end of 2024, the per capita debt for Germans is estimated at €30,062, which is an increase of €669 from the previous year [1] Future Fiscal Challenges - Reports indicate that the German federal government faces a budget gap of approximately €172 billion for the years 2027 to 2029, which will be a core challenge for fiscal policy in the coming years [1]

Group 1 - Novo Nordisk's stock price fell over 21% on July 29, with its weight loss drug Wegovy facing weak growth expectations in the U.S. market [3][4] - The company revised its full-year sales and profit guidance downwards, projecting sales growth of 8% to 14%, compared to the previous target of 13% to 21% [4] - Novo Nordisk's operating profit is now expected to grow by 10% to 16%, down from earlier expectations of 21% and 24% [4] Group 2 - The decline in expectations is attributed to competition from cheaper generic versions of Wegovy and overall market growth being lower than anticipated [4] - Analysts are beginning to question the short-term and long-term outlook for the company in the obesity treatment sector, which has seen inflated expectations [4] - Novo Nordisk announced the appointment of Maziar Mike Doustdar as the new CEO, replacing Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen, who was unexpectedly removed in May [5]

Group 1 - The global economy is at a crossroads, facing significant uncertainty due to trade disruptions that may reshape economic relationships that have sustained global prosperity for decades [1] - Policymakers play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability, requiring coordinated actions to uphold public trust and ensure sustainable growth [1][2] - The anticipated rise in global tariff levels could reach heights not seen in decades, severely impacting global economic growth and inflation, particularly in an already challenged environment [1][3] Group 2 - Trade fragmentation exacerbates structural challenges, with productivity growth stagnating and demographic issues like aging populations hindering economic vitality [3] - Public debt levels in many countries have surged to post-World War II highs, making economies vulnerable to shocks and increasing inflationary pressures [3][4] - Sustainable public finances are essential for long-term prosperity, necessitating the reduction of large deficits and the rebuilding of fiscal buffers to withstand future economic shocks [4] Group 3 - The global financial system has undergone profound structural changes, with government bond markets and asset management firms becoming central, posing risks to financial stability [4][5] - Regulatory measures must be comprehensive, ensuring that both banking and non-banking institutions adhere to strict standards to enhance resilience against economic shocks [5] - Trust in policymakers' ability to maintain public interest is critical for achieving price stability and addressing underlying vulnerabilities in the economy [5]

Core Insights - As of the end of 2024, Germany's total public debt across all levels of government and public funds is projected to reach €2.51 trillion, marking a historic high for the country [1] - The per capita debt for all German citizens is expected to hit €30,000, which is also a record [1] - The increase in public debt is primarily attributed to local governments, with local government debt expected to rise by 10.3% in 2024 compared to 2023 [1]

Core Insights - The UK public sector net borrowing reached £20.7 billion in June, marking the second highest level for the month since records began in 1993 [1] - This figure represents an increase of £6.6 billion compared to the same month last year and is £3.5 billion higher than the forecast made by the Office for Budget Responsibility in March [1] - The rise in borrowing is attributed to increasing costs of public services and a significant rise in debt interest payments [1] Financial Metrics - As of the end of June, the net debt of the UK public sector (excluding banks) stood at 96.3% of GDP, which is an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The UK public debt is currently at its highest level since the early 1960s, with expectations of further increases in the medium to long term [1] Economic Outlook - The Executive Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Tom Clougherty, indicated that due to economic contraction, high borrowing costs, and the government's inability to cut spending, tax increases are anticipated in the upcoming autumn budget [1]

Group 1 - Silver prices are showing a weak trend, currently at $36.70 per ounce with a decline of 0.11% [1] - The uncertainty from Trump's tariffs set to be implemented on August 1, along with potential punitive tariffs, is impacting market sentiment [1] - Strong economic data is diminishing the safe-haven premium for precious metals like silver [1] Group 2 - Lombard Odier expresses skepticism regarding the U.S. government's fiscal plan, predicting it will worsen the fiscal outlook rather than improve it [2] - The budget plan is expected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, with potential for even higher deficits if tax cuts are made permanent [2] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to rise to 119% by around 2034, despite some relief from tariff revenues [2] - The anticipated economic growth rates are modest, with predictions of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis of silver indicates traders are waiting for a deeper correction before re-entering the market [3] - The mid-term upward trend remains intact, but the failure to hold the 13-year high suggests current levels are showing signs of fatigue [3] - A drop below $36.30 could lead to a support range of $35.40 to $34.87, which may attract value investors due to the strong mid-term trend structure [3]

Group 1 - Global top bankers show increasing confidence that the worst market period is over, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new highs, boosting optimism for more active M&A activities in the second half of the year [1] - The World Bank's latest report indicates that global foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to decline, with a projected drop of 11% to approximately $1.5 trillion in 2024, marking two consecutive years of decline [4][10] - The digital economy is one of the few sectors experiencing growth, with a 14% increase in global FDI in this area for 2024, driven by greenfield investments, particularly in data centers, AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity [13] Group 2 - Despite a decline in overall FDI, North America saw a 23% increase, while Europe experienced a significant drop of 58% [5] - The global M&A activity is on the rise, with over 17,528 transactions signed in the first half of the year, although the total number of deals is lower than the previous year, the size of transactions has increased, particularly in Asia [14] - The WTO predicts that despite challenges, service trade is expected to maintain growth, with a projected volume of $4.25 trillion by March 2025, accounting for nearly 14% of global goods and services exports [14]

Core Viewpoint - France's public debt has surpassed €3.3 trillion, reaching 114% of its GDP, indicating ongoing challenges in managing fiscal deficits and public spending despite recent budget cuts [1] Group 1: Public Debt Overview - As of the first quarter of 2025, France's total public debt stands at €33,458 billion, which is an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the end of the previous year [1] - The rise in debt is primarily attributed to increased borrowing by the central government and a widening deficit in social security funds [1] Group 2: Government Response - In response to the fiscal deficit exceeding the EU's prescribed limits, the French government has announced a reduction of €10 billion in public spending [1] - Despite these measures, the pressure to control debt and deficits remains significant for the French government [1]