Core Viewpoint - The era dominated by Greece's high public debt in global economic news is coming to an end, as the country's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline significantly in the coming years [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Debt Levels - Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decrease to 145.4% in the current year and further to 137.6% next year, down from a historical peak of nearly 210% in 2020 and slightly below 147.8% in 2010 [1] Economic Growth - The increase in GDP year-on-year is contributing to the reduction in the debt ratio, indicating a positive trend in economic performance [1] Financial Stability - Greece has sufficient cash reserves and primary surpluses to cover interest payments on its debt, allowing the government to meet debt costs without the need for additional borrowing [1]

Group 1 - The State Bank of Pakistan released its annual report for the fiscal year 2024-2025, indicating significant macroeconomic stability and positive trends in the financial sector, laying a solid foundation for economic recovery [1] - The GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-2025 is projected at 3.0%, an increase from 2.6% in the previous fiscal year, driven mainly by the services and industrial sectors, which grew by 3.0% and 5.3% respectively [1][3] - Inflation has been effectively controlled, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping from 23.4% in the previous fiscal year to 4.5%, marking an eight-year low [1][3] Group 2 - The current account recorded a surplus of $2.113 billion, the first surplus in fourteen years, indicating an improvement in the international balance of payments [1][3] - The State Bank's foreign exchange reserves reached $14.506 billion by the end of the fiscal year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.48% [1][3] - Remittances from overseas workers continued to grow, totaling $38.3 billion for the year [1][3] Group 3 - The monetary policy committee of the State Bank reduced the policy interest rate by 1100 basis points during the fiscal year, ending at 11.0%, which has stimulated private sector credit growth by 12.2%, doubling from the previous fiscal year [1][3] - The fiscal deficit narrowed to 5.4% of GDP, while public debt as a percentage of GDP was 70.8%, slightly up from the previous year, but improved tax revenue and foreign exchange income enhanced debt repayment capacity [1][3] Group 4 - Three major international rating agencies upgraded Pakistan's credit rating at the start of the new fiscal year, although challenges remain due to flood damage to agriculture and infrastructure, geopolitical factors, and global trade uncertainties [2] - The State Bank forecasts GDP growth for the new fiscal year to be near the lower end of the previous estimate range of 3.25% to 4.25%, with the fiscal deficit potentially reaching 3.8% to 4.8% of GDP [2]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest Fiscal Monitor report, highlighting the rising global public debt and urging countries to improve fiscal spending efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Global Public Debt - Global public debt is projected to exceed 100% of global GDP by 2029, reaching the highest level since 1948, reflecting a steeper growth path than pre-COVID-19 predictions [1] - The report indicates that public debt remains high and continues to rise due to increased defense spending, aging populations, and rising interest rates, which add pressure to public finances [1] Group 2: Fiscal Spending Efficiency - There exists a significant gap in fiscal spending efficiency, with developed economies showing a gap of approximately 31%, emerging markets at about 34%, and low-income developing countries at around 39% [1] - Closing the efficiency gap could potentially increase output by about 1.5% in developed economies and between 2.5% to 7.5% in emerging and developing economies over the long term [1] Group 3: Complementary Policies - Implementing complementary policies, such as combining human capital investment with infrastructure investment in emerging markets and integrating public education with research spending in developed economies, could further enhance positive outcomes [2]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest Fiscal Monitor report, highlighting the rising global public debt and the need for countries to improve fiscal spending efficiency [1][2] - Global public debt is projected to exceed 100% of global GDP by 2029, marking the highest level since 1948, driven by low economic growth, increased defense spending, aging populations, and rising interest rates [1] - There exists a significant gap in fiscal spending efficiency, with developed economies at approximately 31%, emerging markets at 34%, and low-income developing countries at 39% [1] Group 1 - The report emphasizes that improving spending efficiency can significantly enhance the returns on fiscal expenditure [1] - Closing the efficiency gap could potentially increase output by about 1.5% in developed economies and by 2.5% to 7.5% in emerging and developing economies [1] - Faster reform progress could yield even greater benefits [1] Group 2 - The report suggests implementing complementary policies, such as combining human capital investment with infrastructure investment in emerging markets and integrating public education with research spending in developed economies [2] - Promoting technology dissemination is also recommended to amplify positive outcomes [2]

Core Insights - Kenya's total public debt is projected to reach 11.81 trillion shillings by June 2025, accounting for 67.8% of GDP [1] - The debt composition includes 6.33 trillion shillings in domestic debt and 5.48 trillion shillings in external debt, with major creditors being the World Bank, African Development Bank, China, and Eurobond holders [1] - For the fiscal year 2024/2025, the government is expected to pay 1.72 trillion shillings in debt interest, with 1.14 trillion to domestic creditors and 579 billion to external creditors [1] - The Ministry of Finance is implementing strategies such as refinancing and extending debt maturities to mitigate risks and enhance sustainability [1]

Economic Performance - Thailand's economy remains weak as of August, with private consumption slowing down and agricultural income decreasing by 10.8% year-on-year [1] - The consumer confidence index dropped from 51.7 to 50.1, indicating concerns over high living costs and geopolitical tensions [1] - Private investment in the capital goods sector saw a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, while new commercial vehicle registrations fell by 10.5% [1] Export and Tourism - August exports reached $27.7 billion, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, marking the 14th consecutive month of growth [1] - The number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand decreased by 12.8% year-on-year, while domestic tourism increased by 6.4% with 22.4 million Thai citizens traveling domestically [1] Industrial and Inflation Indicators - The industrial sentiment index slightly declined from 86.6 to 86.4 due to border conflicts and uncertainties related to U.S. tariff policies [1] - The purchasing managers' index rose to 52.7, reflecting an increase in new orders [1] Economic Stability - Overall economic stability remains good, with an inflation rate of -0.79% and a core inflation rate of 0.81% in August [2] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP stood at 64.5% as of July, compliant with fiscal discipline requirements [2] - International reserves reached $267.4 billion by the end of August, indicating strong external stability [2]

Core Points - The French government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit rate to 4.7% of GDP by 2026 and further to approximately 3% by 2029 [1] - The 2026 budget draft includes a plan to save €6 billion through cuts in daily government spending and increased control over social and local government expenditures [1] - The government plans to increase social spending, with an additional €6 billion allocated for pensions and €5 billion for healthcare [1] - If the budget draft is not approved by the end of the year, the fiscal deficit rate could rise to 6% [1] - France's public debt reached 115.6% of GDP, approximately €3.4 trillion, as of Q2 this year [1] Summary of Previous Budget Goals - The target for the 2025 budget is to reduce the fiscal deficit rate to 5.4% of GDP [2] - The previous budget draft proposed by former Prime Minister Borne aimed for a €43.8 billion reduction in spending and a deficit rate of 4.6% [2] - Borne's budget proposals faced significant controversy, leading to her resignation after failing to secure a confidence vote in the National Assembly [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that France's sovereign credit rating has been downgraded by two agencies in one week, reflecting severe consequences of political and economic instability [1][2] - The recent political turmoil includes the collapse of Prime Minister Borne's government due to failed confidence votes on budget deficit reduction measures, leading to the appointment of a new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, without stabilizing the political situation [1][2] - Morningstar DBRS indicates that the political environment and increasing government instability hinder the effectiveness of France's fiscal policy setting, raising execution risks for achieving fiscal targets in the coming years [1][2] Group 2 - Fitch downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from "AA-" to "A+" due to political divisions obstructing necessary reforms, which negatively impacts public finances and is expected to worsen public debt from 113.9% of GDP in 2025 to 121% by 2027 [2] - Political and fiscal turmoil has led to asset sell-offs in France, increasing borrowing costs relative to other European countries, with bond premiums nearly doubling since Macron's election call [2] - Despite exceeding growth expectations in the first half of the year, uncertainty is projected to lead to a more sluggish economy, as businesses and households hesitate on investment and consumption [2][3] Group 3 - Lecornu has not yet clarified how to negotiate with opposition lawmakers demanding tax increases and slower deficit reduction, with the primary task being to form a new government in a divided parliament [2][3] - Morningstar DBRS believes Lecornu's measures may be relatively weak, as previous proposals for significant tax increases and budget cuts were rejected by opposition votes [3] - The outlook for France's rating has been adjusted from "negative" to "stable," indicating some advantages as the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, but warns of potential further downgrades if structural fiscal imbalances and debt ratios continue to rise [3]

Core Insights - Cape Verde's national budget for the first half of 2025 shows a surplus of 925.2 million escudos (approximately 9.82 million USD), representing 0.3% of GDP, contrasting sharply with a deficit of 2.1 billion escudos (approximately 22.29 million USD) in the same period last year [1] Revenue and Expenditure - Total budget revenue reached 37.5 billion escudos (approximately 400 million USD), marking a year-on-year increase of 17%, driven primarily by tax revenue growth of 15.6% and social contributions growth of 22.6% [1] - Public expenditure amounted to 36.5 billion escudos (approximately 39 million USD), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, but the execution rate was only 34.8%, mainly due to poor performance in capital expenditure [1] Debt Situation - Despite a net debt reduction of 1.1 billion escudos (approximately 11.67 million USD) in the first half of the year, Cape Verde's total public debt remains high at 298.9 billion escudos (approximately 31.7 billion USD), which is 98.6% of GDP, with 67.1% of this debt being external, primarily from multilateral institutions [1]

Core Insights - Azerbaijan's Ministry of Finance predicts an inflation rate of 5.4% for the year 2025, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the April forecast of 5.1% and 0.8 percentage points higher than the initial prediction of 4.6% [1] - The increase in inflation is attributed to changes in the prices of imported commodities and adjustments in tax rates for specific goods and services [1] - The Ministry forecasts that by the beginning of 2026, Azerbaijan's external debt will reach $4.87 billion, domestic debt will amount to $11.84 billion, and the total public debt will be $16.71 billion [1]