Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate ceiling by 25 basis points to 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, with indications of at least three more rate cuts expected this year [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 were reported at 231,000, below the expected 240,000, with the previous week's figure revised to 264,000 [1] - Binance founder CZ has warned crypto projects about North Korean hacking threats, advising them to carefully screen candidates and train employees to avoid downloading files [1] Group 2 - Vitalik Buterin addressed the controversy surrounding Ethereum staking exit times, stating that quick exits could undermine trust in offline nodes, and noted that the current exit queue design has room for improvement [2] - The Ethereum validator exit queue currently holds a total of 2,497,293 ETH, with an estimated wait time of 43 days and 9 hours, while the entry queue has 466,560 ETH with an estimated wait time of 8 days and 2 hours [2] Group 3 - Ramil Ventura Palafox, CEO of Praetorian Group International, has pleaded guilty to operating a $200 million Bitcoin Ponzi scheme, facing charges of telecommunications fraud and money laundering [3] - Palafox misled over 90,000 investors globally, raising more than $201 million, resulting in total investor losses of at least $62.69 million [3] - Sentencing for Palafox is scheduled for February 3, 2026, where he could face up to 40 years in prison [3]

Group 1 - Jobless claims have decreased to 231,000, which is below estimates, following a previous rise attributed to fraudulent filings in Texas [1][4] - Ongoing claims stand at 1,920,000, indicating a slight improvement in the job market [1] - The Philadelphia Fed's overall number has jumped to 23.2% from -0.3%, while the prices paid index has dropped to 46.8% from 66.8%, suggesting significant improvement in inflation metrics [2] Group 2 - The recent jobless claims data reflects a recovery, with a notable decrease from the previous week's inflated numbers due to suspected fraud [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is monitoring these developments closely, as they may influence economic activity and market sentiment [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a volatile upward trend, trading around $3646.18 per ounce, following a slight decline of 0.2% to $3632.49 per ounce [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, driven by geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and expectations surrounding U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - Despite a recent pullback from a record high of $3674.36, the overall bullish trend for gold remains intact, with support levels identified around $3620 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.45% to $66.07 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by 0.5% to $62.00 per barrel, reflecting ongoing market pressure [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global supply growth will outpace expectations by 2025 due to OPEC+ production plans, while OPEC maintains a positive outlook for global demand growth [6] - The oil market is currently facing a dual challenge of increasing supply and demand uncertainties, with OPEC+ deciding to raise production quotas starting in October [6] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are in a weak downward trend, with short-term resistance levels at $65.0-$66.0 and support levels at $62.0-$61.0 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar have negatively impacted gold prices, with a notable correlation observed between the two, as the dollar's decline has provided external support for gold prices [3]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of September 12, gold futures are trading around 833.24 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.02%, having reached a high of 833.60 yuan and a low of 826.64 yuan [1]. - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears to be oscillating [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to 97.52, reversing all gains from the Asian and European trading sessions, primarily due to mixed US inflation data and a significant increase in initial jobless claims, which contributed to a dovish sentiment [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data did not significantly alter the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, with the market focusing more on employment weakness, which has put pressure on the dollar [3]. Group 3: Gold Price Dynamics - The weakening dollar has made gold, priced in dollars, more attractive to investors holding other currencies, which explains the rapid narrowing of gold's decline following the inflation data release [3]. - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 840 yuan and 860 yuan per gram, while important support levels are between 799 yuan and 850 yuan per gram [4].

Market Insights - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve next Monday, with a procedural vote first, followed by a confirmation vote if approved [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, up from 2.7% in July, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 3.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 6 were recorded at 263,000, indicating potential increases in layoffs amid a slowdown in hiring [1] European Central Bank and Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, with economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone adjusted to 1.2% for 2025, up from 0.9% [2] - The Bank of Japan is accelerating plans to reduce its substantial ETF holdings, which could involve a gradual market entry of assets worth 37 trillion yen [2] - The Turkish Central Bank significantly cut its one-week repo rate from 43% to 40.5%, exceeding investor expectations by 200 basis points [2] Energy Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil supply growth forecast for this year by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day, while slightly increasing demand growth expectations to 740,000 barrels per day [3] - OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day, respectively [3] Global Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 617.08 points to close at 46,108.00, a gain of 1.36%; the S&P 500 increased by 55.43 points to 6,587.47, up 0.85%; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 157.01 points to 22,043.07, a rise of 0.72% [4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.23% to $3,673.40 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce [5] - Light crude oil futures for October delivery decreased by $1.30 to $62.37 per barrel, a drop of 2.04%; Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell by $1.12 to $66.37 per barrel, down 1.66% [5] - The U.S. dollar index declined by 0.26% to 97.529, with various currency exchange rates showing fluctuations against the dollar [5]

Group 1 - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple rising over 1%, Oracle falling over 6%, and Netflix declining over 3% [1] - Media stocks strengthened, with Warner Bros. Discovery surging 28% and Paramount Global rising over 15%, amid reports of a potential acquisition bid for Warner Bros. Discovery by Paramount Global [1] - Stablecoin issuer Figure saw a 24% increase on its first day of trading following its IPO [1] Group 2 - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 2.89%. Alibaba rose by 8%, NIO by over 6%, and Baidu and JD.com by over 3% [3] - The FTSE A50 futures index rose by 0.30%, closing at 15,233 points [5] Group 3 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, matching market expectations, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month [8] - The largest contributor to the CPI increase was housing costs, which rose by 0.4%, accounting for about one-third of the index's weight [8] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased to 263,000, higher than the Dow Jones forecast of 235,000, indicating a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy [9] Group 4 - Analysts widely expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting, with some suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point cut due to weak employment data [9][10] - The market has fully priced in a rate cut in September, with expectations for three cuts this year, up from two just weeks ago [9]

Economic Data Impact - Pre-market futures are up following the release of important economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Weekly Jobless Claims, indicating market participants are optimistic about equities [1] - The Dow is up by 158 points, S&P 500 by 19 points, and Nasdaq by 80 points, following all-time closing highs for both the S&P and Nasdaq [2] Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims reached 263K, the highest in almost four years, significantly exceeding the expected 235K and the previous week's revised figure of 236K [4] - Continuing Claims have dropped below 1.94 million for the first time in nearly three months, currently at 1.939 million, suggesting potential upward movement in the coming weeks [6] Inflation Metrics - The August CPI report shows a headline increase of 0.4%, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% and doubling the previous month's 0.2% [7] - Year-over-year CPI stands at 2.9%, up 20 basis points from July, while Core CPI is at 3.1%, aligning with expectations and indicating inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2.0% [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting is high, with discussions centered on a potential cut of either 25 or 50 basis points [10] - If rate cuts occur as anticipated, interest rates could end 2025 between 3.25% and 3.50%, a significant shift from previous years [11]

The number of Americans who filed for initial unemployment benefits jumped last week, hitting the highest level since October 2021. ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest economic data suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting, despite mixed signals from inflation and employment figures [1][4]. Inflation Data - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, double the previous month's rate, and the year-on-year inflation rate rose to 2.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest level since January [1][2]. - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, both in line with expectations [1][2]. Employment Data - The initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 unexpectedly rose to 263,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, and increasing by 27,000 from the previous week [2][4]. - Analysts express concern over the rising jobless claims, indicating potential future layoffs and a weakening labor market, which could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [4][3]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the economic data, U.S. stock index futures initially dropped but later regained momentum [5]. - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield stabilizing at 4.02% after dipping to 4% during the day [7]. - The U.S. dollar index experienced a decline, reflecting market adjustments to the anticipated Fed policy changes [9]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Market expectations indicate a high probability (89.1%) of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with a smaller chance (10.9%) of a 50 basis point cut [4]. - There is speculation that the Fed may consider larger cuts due to the weak labor market and inflation data, with traders pricing in nearly three additional 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the previous week was reported at 263,000, which is higher than the forecast of 235,000 and the previous value of 237,000 [1] Summary by Category - **Employment Data** - Initial jobless claims increased to 263,000, exceeding the expected 235,000 [1] - The prior week's claims were reported at 237,000, indicating a rise in unemployment claims [1]