Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a volatile upward trend, trading around $3646.18 per ounce, following a slight decline of 0.2% to $3632.49 per ounce [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, driven by geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and expectations surrounding U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - Despite a recent pullback from a record high of $3674.36, the overall bullish trend for gold remains intact, with support levels identified around $3620 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.45% to $66.07 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by 0.5% to $62.00 per barrel, reflecting ongoing market pressure [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global supply growth will outpace expectations by 2025 due to OPEC+ production plans, while OPEC maintains a positive outlook for global demand growth [6] - The oil market is currently facing a dual challenge of increasing supply and demand uncertainties, with OPEC+ deciding to raise production quotas starting in October [6] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are in a weak downward trend, with short-term resistance levels at $65.0-$66.0 and support levels at $62.0-$61.0 [7]

在纽周二约汇市，美元指数回吐了亚欧时段的全部涨幅，收盘下跌0.3%至97.52。这种趋弱态势主要源 于美国通胀数据虽微热但未超预期，以及初请失业金人数大增带来的鸽派情绪。 CPI数据并未真正改变美联储利率走向，市场更关注就业疲软，这让美元承压。美元走弱的直接受益者 便是黄金，因为以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的投资者而言变得更具吸引力。这在一定程度上解释 了金价为何能在通胀数据公布后迅速收窄跌幅。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日周五（9月12日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于833.56附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报833.24元/ 克，跌幅0.02%，最高触及833.60元/克，最低下探826.64元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美元汇率的波动往往与黄金价格呈负相关，而本次经济数据发布后，美元的回落进一步为金价提供了外 部助力。 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为840元/克至860元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于799元/克 至850元/克。 ...

Market Insights - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve next Monday, with a procedural vote first, followed by a confirmation vote if approved [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, up from 2.7% in July, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 3.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 6 were recorded at 263,000, indicating potential increases in layoffs amid a slowdown in hiring [1] European Central Bank and Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, with economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone adjusted to 1.2% for 2025, up from 0.9% [2] - The Bank of Japan is accelerating plans to reduce its substantial ETF holdings, which could involve a gradual market entry of assets worth 37 trillion yen [2] - The Turkish Central Bank significantly cut its one-week repo rate from 43% to 40.5%, exceeding investor expectations by 200 basis points [2] Energy Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil supply growth forecast for this year by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day, while slightly increasing demand growth expectations to 740,000 barrels per day [3] - OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day, respectively [3] Global Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 617.08 points to close at 46,108.00, a gain of 1.36%; the S&P 500 increased by 55.43 points to 6,587.47, up 0.85%; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 157.01 points to 22,043.07, a rise of 0.72% [4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.23% to $3,673.40 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce [5] - Light crude oil futures for October delivery decreased by $1.30 to $62.37 per barrel, a drop of 2.04%; Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell by $1.12 to $66.37 per barrel, down 1.66% [5] - The U.S. dollar index declined by 0.26% to 97.529, with various currency exchange rates showing fluctuations against the dollar [5]

Group 1 - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple rising over 1%, Oracle falling over 6%, and Netflix declining over 3% [1] - Media stocks strengthened, with Warner Bros. Discovery surging 28% and Paramount Global rising over 15%, amid reports of a potential acquisition bid for Warner Bros. Discovery by Paramount Global [1] - Stablecoin issuer Figure saw a 24% increase on its first day of trading following its IPO [1] Group 2 - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 2.89%. Alibaba rose by 8%, NIO by over 6%, and Baidu and JD.com by over 3% [3] - The FTSE A50 futures index rose by 0.30%, closing at 15,233 points [5] Group 3 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, matching market expectations, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month [8] - The largest contributor to the CPI increase was housing costs, which rose by 0.4%, accounting for about one-third of the index's weight [8] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased to 263,000, higher than the Dow Jones forecast of 235,000, indicating a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy [9] Group 4 - Analysts widely expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting, with some suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point cut due to weak employment data [9][10] - The market has fully priced in a rate cut in September, with expectations for three cuts this year, up from two just weeks ago [9]

Economic Data Impact - Pre-market futures are up following the release of important economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Weekly Jobless Claims, indicating market participants are optimistic about equities [1] - The Dow is up by 158 points, S&P 500 by 19 points, and Nasdaq by 80 points, following all-time closing highs for both the S&P and Nasdaq [2] Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims reached 263K, the highest in almost four years, significantly exceeding the expected 235K and the previous week's revised figure of 236K [4] - Continuing Claims have dropped below 1.94 million for the first time in nearly three months, currently at 1.939 million, suggesting potential upward movement in the coming weeks [6] Inflation Metrics - The August CPI report shows a headline increase of 0.4%, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% and doubling the previous month's 0.2% [7] - Year-over-year CPI stands at 2.9%, up 20 basis points from July, while Core CPI is at 3.1%, aligning with expectations and indicating inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2.0% [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting is high, with discussions centered on a potential cut of either 25 or 50 basis points [10] - If rate cuts occur as anticipated, interest rates could end 2025 between 3.25% and 3.50%, a significant shift from previous years [11]

The number of Americans who filed for initial unemployment benefits jumped last week, hitting the highest level since October 2021. ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest economic data suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting, despite mixed signals from inflation and employment figures [1][4]. Inflation Data - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, double the previous month's rate, and the year-on-year inflation rate rose to 2.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest level since January [1][2]. - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, both in line with expectations [1][2]. Employment Data - The initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 unexpectedly rose to 263,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, and increasing by 27,000 from the previous week [2][4]. - Analysts express concern over the rising jobless claims, indicating potential future layoffs and a weakening labor market, which could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [4][3]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the economic data, U.S. stock index futures initially dropped but later regained momentum [5]. - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield stabilizing at 4.02% after dipping to 4% during the day [7]. - The U.S. dollar index experienced a decline, reflecting market adjustments to the anticipated Fed policy changes [9]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Market expectations indicate a high probability (89.1%) of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with a smaller chance (10.9%) of a 50 basis point cut [4]. - There is speculation that the Fed may consider larger cuts due to the weak labor market and inflation data, with traders pricing in nearly three additional 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year [3][4].

每经AI快讯，9月11日，美国上周初请失业金人数为26.3万人，预估23.5万人，前值23.7万人。 ...

Initial jobless claims rose by z27,000 to 263,000 in the week ended Sept. 6, the Labor Department said Thursday. ...

Core Insights - The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the U.S. as of the week ending August 23 is 1.94 million, which is lower than the expected 1.962 million and a revision from the previous value of 1.954 million to 1.944 million [1] Summary by Category - **Unemployment Claims Data** - The current figure of 1.94 million for continuing unemployment claims indicates a slight improvement compared to expectations and previous values [1] - The previous week's value was revised down from 1.954 million to 1.944 million, reflecting a more favorable labor market condition [1] - **Market Expectations** - The expectation for continuing claims was set at 1.962 million, suggesting that the actual figure is better than market forecasts [1]