报告摘要 （一）本周和未来一周的海外重要经济数据 文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 核心观点 高频来看，美国初请失业金人数仍处于低位，海外大宗商品价格大幅上涨但周五明显回调，美国汽油零售 价持续反弹，美国信用利差有所扩大。经济数据方面，美国去年12月PPI环比超预期，欧元区四季度GDP好 于预期，日本1月东京CPI低于预期。关注即将公布：美国1月ISM制造业（2/2）、1月非农数据（2/2）、2 月密歇根消费者信心指数（2/6），欧元区1月CPI（2/4）、欧央行利率决议（2/5）。 1 月 26 日 -30 日当周，美国： 去年 11 月耐用品订单环比初值好于预期，去年 12 月 PPI 环比超预期， 1 月世界大型企业研究会消费者信心指数低于预期， 1 月 MNI 芝加哥 PMI 好于预期。 欧元区 ：去年 4 季 度 GDP 好于预期，去年 12 月失业率好于预期。 日本 ： 去年 12 月工业产值好于预期， 1 月东京 CPI 低 于预期，去年 12 月失业率符合预期，去年 12 月零售环比低于预期。 2 月 2 日 ...

美国至1月24日当周初请失业金人数20.9万人，预期20.5万人，前值由20万人修正为21万人。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月29日，美国上周初请失业金人数为20.9万人，预估20.5万人，前值20万人。 ...

Group 1 - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a holding of 1,079.66 tons of gold as of January 22, an increase of 2.00 tons from the previous trading day [1] - As of January 22, the spot gold price closed at $4,934.83 per ounce, reflecting a 2.14% increase, with an intraday high of $4,940.40 and a low of $4,772.19 [1] Group 2 - The final annualized GDP growth rate for the U.S. in Q3 2025 was reported at 4.4%, surpassing the initial estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth rate in nearly two years [2] - The core PCE price index, a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in November, both in line with expectations [2] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the previous week was reported at 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [2]

【市场资讯】 转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •美国众议院通过2026财年关键拨款法案 •美国2025年第三季度GDP创近两年最快增速 •日本贸易逆差连五年 出口创新高但对美下滑 •韩国施行《人工智能基本法》 强化高风险AI监管 •美国众议院于1月23日通过2026财年一揽子拨款法案，其中国土安全部拨款以220票对207票微弱优势单 独过关。该方案将与上周通过的另一法案合并后提交参议院，须在1月30日前完成审议以避免政府停 摆。若成功立法，将是自2024年3月以来首次确立全年联邦拨款水平。 •韩国正式实施《人工智能基本法》，要求企业在涉及用户日常生活与安全的"高风险"AI应用场景中采 取严格防护措施，并对深度伪造、虚假信息等滥用行为承担法律责任，标志着AI治理迈入制度化阶 段。 •美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，略高于初值4.3%，创近两年最快增速。 •美国核心PCE物价指数11月同比上涨2.8%、环比涨0.2%，均符合预期。 •美国上周初请失业金人数降至20万，低于预期的21万，显示劳动力市场依然稳健。 •日本2025年贸易逆差达2.65万亿日元，连续第五年赤字。尽管全年出口额同比增长3 ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the third quarter, marking the fastest growth in two years [1] - This growth is attributed to strong exports and reduced inventory drag, making it one of the strongest consecutive quarters since the pandemic recovery began in 2021 [1] - Consumer spending, a major growth engine, increased by 3.5% in the last quarter, reflecting the fastest growth in service spending in three years [1] Inflation and Federal Reserve - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, favored by the Federal Reserve, rose by 2.9% in the third quarter [1] - Given the strong economic growth and stable job market, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting [1] Labor Market - Initial jobless claims remained low, with a slight increase of 1,000 to 200,000, which is below expectations [2] - The continuing claims for unemployment benefits fell to 1.85 million, the lowest level since November of the previous year [2] - The four-week moving average of jobless claims dropped to 201,500, the lowest in two years, indicating a stable labor market [2]

（来源：吴说） 美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预期 21 万人，前值由 19.8 万人修正为 19.9 万人。美国 第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率终值 4.4%，预期 4.30%，前值 4.30%。美国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年 化季率终值 2.9%，预期 2.9%，前值 2.90%。 ...

美国至1月17日当周初请失业金人数20万人，预期21万人，前值由19.8万人修正为19.9万人。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 98.795, while spot silver opened at $93.06 per ounce and is currently around $92.11 per ounce, indicating a decline [1] - On January 21, the dollar index rose by 0.22% to close at 98.767, while spot silver fell by 1.61% to $93.04 per ounce, influenced by developments regarding Greenland [1] - The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 56.38 tons to 16,166.1 tons as of January 21 [2] Group 2 - The situation regarding Greenland has seen developments, with Trump stating a cooperation framework with NATO and retracting threats of tariffs against eight European countries [2] - The European Parliament has indefinitely frozen the review of the US-EU trade agreement [2] - The silver market experienced fluctuations, opening at $94.571, reaching a high of $95.556, and closing at $92.95, forming a long lower shadow candlestick pattern [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected decline in initial jobless claims in the U.S., reaching the lowest level since November of the previous year, indicating a potentially stable labor market despite recent layoffs announced by major employers [4][7]. Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, which is below market expectations [4]. - The four-week moving average of new claims fell to 205,000, the lowest in two years [7]. - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 1.88 million in the previous week [8]. Group 2: Employment Market Insights - Despite recent layoffs from companies like PepsiCo and Meta, actual data shows no significant increase in widespread layoffs [7]. - A survey from the University of Michigan indicates that nearly two-thirds of consumers expect the unemployment rate to rise in the coming year [7]. - Non-farm payroll data showed a modest employment increase of 50,000 in December, below the expected 60,000, with the unemployment rate adjusted to 4.4%, down from a previous 4.6% [8].