Report Title - **Title**: "补库偏谨慎，盘面弱势震荡 双焦周报 20260126" [1] - **Author**: Zhou Guisheng [1] - **Qualification**: F3036194 (从业资格证), Z0015986 (投资咨询证) [1] Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views **Coking Coal** - Last week, the coking coal market saw both supply and demand increase. Affected by the news of the closure of the Mongolian coal port during the Spring Festival, there was a certain rebound. After the New Year's Day, coal mines resumed normal production, and domestic supply gradually recovered. In terms of imports, Mongolian coal imports remained at a high level in the new year. On the demand side, the daily average iron - making water output increased slightly, but a sudden accident at a steel mill led to safety inspections affecting part of the iron - making water output. Coke production remained stable for the time being, and coking and steel plants still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Overall, domestic coal mine operations are gradually picking up, imports remain at a high level year - on - year, supply is gradually increasing, while downstream coking and steel enterprises are not making good profits, and their willingness to accept coking coal price increases is decreasing. The market generally maintains a low - level shock [3]. **Coke** - In terms of supply, most coking enterprises currently maintain normal production, coke production remains stable, and steel mill coke production has increased, with overall supply increasing slightly. On the demand side, terminal steel consumption is still in the off - season, steel mill profits are declining, and since steel mill coke inventories are at medium - to - high levels, they mainly replenish inventory according to demand. Overall, the current coke market has both supply and demand increasing, the inventory level is relatively reasonable, market competition has intensified, and it is expected that the futures market will follow and maintain low - level shocks. Attention should be paid to the winter storage and inventory replenishment demand [4]. Summary by Directory **Part One: Market Views** **Coking Coal Supply** - The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 89.33% (+0.86%), the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 77.01 tons (+0.16). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal - washing plants was 37.41% (+0.62%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 27.63 tons (+0.28). The operating rate of mines and the daily average output of mine clean coal continued to rise month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate and clean coal output of coal - washing plants also continued to rise month - on - month. In terms of imported coal, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remained at a high level last week, and overall supply gradually increased [3]. **Coking Coal Demand** - The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel plants was 228.1 tons (+0.09), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68% (-0.16%), the available days of coking coal in 247 steel plants were 12.88 days (-0.03), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 14.97 days (+0.62). The blast furnace operating rate of steel plants decreased slightly, the daily average output of molten iron increased slightly month - on - month, the available days of coking coal in steel plants decreased slightly, and the available days of coking coal in coking plants increased. There is a certain demand for inventory replenishment in the downstream [3]. **Coking Coal Inventory** - The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 274.35 tons (+1.98), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1177.71 tons (+44.86), the inventory of steel plants was 803.24 tons (+1.04), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 323.23 tons (-1.89), and the inventory of main ports was 289.38 tons (-9.52). Currently, the inventories of coking coal mines, coking plants, and steel plants have accumulated slightly, while those of coal - washing plants and ports have decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [3]. **Coke Supply** - The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 66 yuan/ton (-1). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 72.41% (-0.14%), and the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63.31 tons (-0.14). The daily output of coke from 247 steel plants was 46.9 tons (+0.18). The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants decreased slightly in losses, and steel plants' resistance to the first round of coke price increases increased, putting pressure on coking profits. However, overall production remained stable, mainly because some coking enterprises had smooth shipments, inventory decreased, and production enthusiasm increased [4]. **Coke Demand** - The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel plants was 228.1 tons (+0.09), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68% (-0.16%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel plants were 12.35 days (+0.38). The daily average output of molten iron increased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory usage cycle of steel plant coke increased, and steel plants mainly purchased coke according to demand [4]. **Coke Inventory** - The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 81.45 tons (-0.36), the inventory of main ports was 196.06 tons (+7.99), and the inventory of 247 steel plants was 661.46 tons (+11.31). The inventory of coking plants decreased slightly, the inventories of steel plants and ports increased slightly, and the overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. **Part Two: Macro - real Estate Tracking** - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real estate new construction, construction, completion area, sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 large - and medium - sized cities' weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry purchasing managers' index (PMI), and manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), but no analysis is provided in the text [6][10][14][18] **Part Three: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking** - The report tracks various data related to coking coal, including purchase prices, spot price comparisons, basis spreads, production, operating rates, inventories, and customs clearance vehicle numbers at ports, but no analysis is provided in the text [21][26][31][35][37][39][42][45][51][54] **Part Four: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking** - The report tracks various data related to coke, including factory prices, spot price adjustment schedules, spot price comparisons, basis spreads, profit per ton, production, capacity utilization rates, inventories, and inventory available days, but no analysis is provided in the text [59][61][63][67][73][76][78][83][88]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market last week saw a slight increase in supply but remained at a low level, with a continuous decline in demand and weak purchasing sentiment. Although coking coal prices rebounded recently due to production restrictions in coal mines and import disturbances, the current supply - demand situation is still weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [4]. - The coke market has a weak supply - demand structure. Recently, due to strict environmental policies, coke enterprises have continued to cut production passively, and overall supply has decreased. However, coke enterprises still have some profits and production enthusiasm is acceptable. Demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The coke price followed the coking coal to have a phased rebound, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal trend. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market View - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.62% (+1.31%), and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 75.75 tons (+0.75). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 37.68% (-0.53%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 27.29 tons (-0.63). The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high last week. Overall supply was relatively low [4]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 226.55 tons (-2.65), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (-0.16%), the available days of coking coal in 247 steel mills were 13.02 days (+0.2), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 13.43 days (+0.13). The demand side was mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 272.77 tons (+17.46), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1036.29 tons (-1.01), the steel mill inventory was 804.99 tons (+10.34), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 327.28 tons (-5.09), and the inventory at major ports was 286.17 tons (-21.33). The coking coal mines and steel mills increased inventory, while the coal washing plants and coking plants reduced inventory [4]. - **Coke** - **Supply**: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 16 yuan/ton (-28). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 72.05% (-1.11%), and the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63 tons (-0.98). The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.49 tons (-0.12). Coke supply decreased, but there was still profit space and production enthusiasm was acceptable [5]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 226.55 tons (-2.65), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (-0.16), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 11.72 days (+0.06). The demand for coke weakened [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 91.1 tons (+3.78), the inventory at major ports was 175.65 tons (-5.55), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 633.73 tons (-1.55). The overall social inventory of coke slightly decreased [5]. Part Two: Macroeconomic and Real Estate Tracking - The report lists data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the manufacturing PMI, but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][15][19]. Part Three: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report includes data on the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices in the country, the basis tracking of coking coal futures contracts (01, 05, 09 contracts), the daily average output and operating rate of clean coal from 523 sample coal mines, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output of hot metal and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills across the country, the inventory of clean coal in 314 sample coal washing plants and 523 sample mines, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills and all - sample independent coking plants, the inventory of imported coking coal at ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills and 230 independent coking plants, and the customs clearance vehicle number of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [22][27][33]. Part Four: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report includes data on the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis tracking of coke futures contracts (01, 05, 09 contracts), the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of coke in all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory at ports, and the available days of coke inventory in 247 steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [62][64][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market last week had a slight increase in supply, a continuous decline in demand, and weak purchasing sentiment. The overall coking coal supply was stable while demand was weak, and it remained weakly operational. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [4]. - The current situation of coke is strong supply and weak demand. The inventory is at a medium level, and the coke price is still under pressure. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Market Views Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 85.59% (-0.42%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 75.37 tons (-1.04). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 36.53% (+0.21%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 27.12 tons (+0.54). The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high, and the overall supply increased slightly [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 247.01 tons (-2.38), the blast furnace operating rate was 80.16% (-0.93%), and the available days of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants decreased. The demand continued to decline, and downstream purchasing willingness was cautious [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 223.92 tons (+23.09), and the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 321.4 tons (+16.09). The inventory of steel mills and coking plants decreased slightly, and the inventory at major ports increased slightly [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 30 yuan/ton (-16). The capacity utilization rate and daily output of all - sample independent coking plants increased, and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills also increased slightly [5]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills decreased, the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline, and the demand support weakened [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 4.68 tons, the inventory at major ports decreased by 6.1 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased slightly. The overall social inventory of coke decreased slightly [5]. Part 2: Macroeconomic and Real Estate Tracking - The content mainly lists some macro - real estate data, including the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry and manufacturing industry, but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][14][18] Part 3: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The content includes data on the procurement price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices nationwide, the basis tracking of coking coal futures contracts, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, and the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, etc., to track the supply and demand of coking coal [21][26][33][36] Part 4: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The content includes data on the ex - factory price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the spot price adjustment schedule of coke, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis tracking of coke futures contracts, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of coke in independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, and the coke inventory and available days of inventory in relevant enterprises and ports, etc., to track the supply and demand of coke [62][64][66][70]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term coking coal supply may remain tight due to environmental protection and safety inspections in major production areas. However, the traditional off - season of the downstream steel market and the continuous decline in hot metal production suppress the upward space of raw material prices. The coking coal and coke futures are expected to move within a range next week. The strategy suggests short - term long positions in coking coal and arbitrage opportunities of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The reference range for the coking coal main contract is [1230, 1310], and for the coke main contract is [1710, 1800] [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, black - series commodities declined across the board, while coking coal and coke prices were relatively firm. The weekly decline of the coking coal main contract was 1.24%, and that of the coke main contract was 1.15%. Domestic coal mine production decreased, and inventory was at a near - three - year low. Pre - sale orders were sufficient, and the auction market was active. Steel mill profits were poor, hot metal production declined, but raw material replenishment demand was still resilient. The port clearance volume of imported coking coal increased, and the spot resources were relatively tight. The third round of coke price increase was implemented, and some coke enterprises initiated the fourth round [4] Coking Coal - **Supply** - 523 mines' daily average raw coal output was 186.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4 tons; daily average clean coal output was 73.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01 tons. Sample coal washing plants' daily average output was 27.53 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 36.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [20][23] - From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year. In September, the total import volume was 10.92 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [24][25] - **Inventory and Basis** - The 01 contract basis of coking coal strengthened to a high level in the same period. The 1 - 5 spread strengthened [8][13] - The coking coal auction's weekly listing volume decreased by 0.69 tons, the成交 rate decreased by 0.24%, and the non - transaction rate increased by 0.24% [30] Coke - **Market and Profit** - Coke spot prices remained stable. The national average coking profit increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, still in a loss state. Profits in different regions improved to varying degrees [36][40] - **Supply and Demand** - Coke daily consumption was 105.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96 tons. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [51] - **Inventory and Basis** - Coke total inventory decreased by 12.97 tons week - on - week. Steel mill inventory, independent coke enterprise inventory, and port inventory all decreased. The 01 contract basis of coke strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread situation was not provided in detail [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, it is expected that in November, both supply and demand will be weak. The pricing logic of the futures market may shift, with the pricing weight of the supply side decreasing and that of the demand side increasing. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy for coke, with the coke index referring to 1620 - 1850 - 1900 [6]. - For coking coal, the demand is expected to decline, and whether domestic coal mine supply can recover remains to be seen. The pricing logic of the futures market may also shift, with the supply - side pricing weight decreasing and the demand - side pricing weight increasing. A range - trading strategy is also recommended for coking coal, with the coking coal index referring to 1130 - 1350 - 1400 [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke Price - In October, coke prices generally showed a strong trend. As of October 29, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1560 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase compared to the end of September [15]. Supply - Currently, coking enterprises are operating at a loss. Due to the weakening of steel mill profits, there is an expectation of price cuts for coke, which will further reduce coking enterprise profits and production enthusiasm. In mid - November, with the start of heating in northern regions, some coking enterprises may face environmental production restrictions, leading to an expected decline in coke production [6][29]. Demand - With the arrival of the off - season for steel demand, the production of molten iron is expected to continue to decline. The current weakening of steel demand and the significant decline in steel mill profitability have also affected steel mill production enthusiasm. Coupled with the possible tightening of environmental production restrictions in November, the production of molten iron is expected to weaken significantly, reducing the demand for coke [6][32]. Import and Export - In September 2025, coke exports were 542,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7400 tons; imports were 14.62 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.22 tons. Some southern steel mills in China imported a large amount of coke from Indonesia in September, leading to a significant increase in coke imports [36]. Inventory - In October, the coke inventories of coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased. Currently, coking enterprise inventories are at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, while steel mill inventories are at a relatively high level. Although there is an expectation of winter stockpiling, the high current inventory level of steel mills limits their space for winter stockpiling. Port inventories are at a relatively high level, which has a certain negative impact on the futures market [6][40]. Basis and Spread - As of October 29, the basis of the coke 01 contract (Rizhao quasi - first - grade converted to warehouse receipts) was - 65, a decrease from - 47 at the end of September; the basis of the 05 contract was - 204, a decrease from - 42 at the end of September; the basis of the 09 contract was - 288, a decrease from - 42 at the end of September. The different - month contracts of coke show a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market view on the supply - demand pattern of near - month contracts [43][47]. Coking Coal Price - The prices of main coking coal and blended coking coal both showed a strong and fluctuating trend. As of October 29, the aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Lvliang was 1560 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase compared to the end of September [51]. Supply - In October, due to safety reasons, work - face changes in some coal mines, and the shutdown of open - pit coal mines in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, for goaf treatment, coal mine production significantly declined to a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Whether domestic coal mine supply can recover remains uncertain, and some coal mines may slow down production after reaching their annual targets. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to normal levels and is expected to remain high in November [8][55][60]. Demand - With the arrival of the off - season for steel demand, the production of molten iron is expected to decline, steel mill profits are weakening, and coking enterprise profits are under pressure. As a result, coke production is expected to decline, reducing the demand for coking coal. In the long term, if the coke import market expands, it will squeeze the domestic coke market and further weaken the demand for coking coal [64]. Import and Export - In July 2025, coking coal imports were 10.92 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 tons; exports were 11,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2800 tons. The increase in domestic coking coal prices has led to an increase in import profits and a gradual rise in import volumes, which currently have returned to a high level [68]. Inventory - In October, supported by high molten iron production, coking enterprises and steel mills continued to replenish their coking coal inventories, which are currently at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in previous years. Coal mine inventories have significantly decreased to a low level compared to the same period in previous years, while port inventories have changed little and are at a medium level. The current inventory structure has no major contradictions, but due to the expected decline in demand, the willingness of coking enterprises and steel mills to replenish inventories may decline [89]. Basis and Spread - As of October 29, the basis of the coking coal 01 contract (Meng 5 coking coal in Tangshan converted to warehouse receipts) was - 49, a decrease from - 123 at the end of September; the basis of the 05 contract was - 117, a decrease from - 104 at the end of September; the basis of the 09 contract was - 183, a decrease from - 83 at the end of September. The different - month contracts of coking coal show a contango structure, indicating a relatively pessimistic market view on the supply - demand pattern of near - month contracts [97][101].

Report Title - Coal Coke Weekly Report 20250922 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - The double - coking coal (coke and coking coal) is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term. Although the supply side of coal mines has recovered, there are still disturbances. High hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises provide strong support for raw material demand. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in coking coal [4][9] Summary by Directory 1. Coke Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - The futures price soared last week and is expected to remain strong before the holiday. The second - round spot price cut has been implemented and is currently stable. The freight for coke transportation remained stable last week [7][10][17] 1.2 Supply - The impact of coking production restrictions in Tangshan is limited, and the coke supply remains high and stable. As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises nationwide was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 66.72 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 86.03%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 46.65 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons [26][28][33] 1.3 Demand - The hot metal production increased slightly, and downstream enterprises started pre - holiday restocking. Speculative sentiment improved slightly, export profit changed little, and the daily trading volume of building materials in the spot market was lower than the same period in previous years. As of September 19, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.98%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.47 tons; the steel mill profit rate was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [34][36][39] 1.4 Inventory - Downstream enterprises restocked while upstream enterprises reduced inventory, and the total inventory increased. As of September 19, the total coke inventory increased by 8.94 tons to 9.1518 million tons. Among them, the port inventory decreased by 1.01 tons to 2.041 million tons; the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 1.43 tons to 664,100 tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills increased by 11.38 tons to 6.4467 million tons [40][42][45] 1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises was compressed, and the coke futures profit weakened slightly. The profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was - 17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan from the previous week. The futures profit of coke 01 decreased by 0.75 yuan/ton to 136.90 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [51][53] 1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread continued to weaken. The basis of coke 01 decreased by 61.3 to - 157.16 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21 to - 102 [55][57] 2. Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - The futures price soared last week and is expected to remain strong before the holiday. The spot price is running strongly. Some coking coal prices in different regions showed an upward trend last week [60][63] 2.2 Supply - The supply from production areas continued to recover, the output of coal washing plants increased, and the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the 288 port remained high. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 72.64 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 7.54%. As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.44%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average output of clean coal was 268,000 tons, an increase of 119,000 tons [66][72][74] 2.3 Inventory - Independent coking enterprises increased inventory while coal mines reduced inventory, and the total inventory increased. As of September 19, the total coking coal inventory increased by 666,000 tons to 25.501 million tons. Among them, the inventory of mining enterprises decreased by 217,300 tons to 2.3279 million tons; the port inventory increased by 110,800 tons to 2.8219 million tons; the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 237,700 tons to 3.0437 million tons; the inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 568,700 tons to 9.4041 million tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased by 33,900 tons to 7.9034 million tons [75][77][80] 2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened. The basis of coking coal 01 decreased by 87.5 to - 101 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21 to - 102 [99][101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - In June, coking coal stopped falling and rebounded, driving the black market to rebound from a low level. By the end of June, coke 09 rose 6.89% to close at 1404, and coking coal 09 rose 11.26% to close at 825 [6][12]. - Looking ahead to July, macro - level factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting in July will still greatly affect the market. At the industrial level, after the end of the safety production month, coal mines are expected to gradually resume production, and coke supply is expected to recover to some extent. However, July and August are off - peak demand seasons, and terminal demand is under greater pressure to decline, with molten iron still expected to decline, but at a relatively slow rate. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are likely to weaken again in July, and the upward space of the futures market is expected to be limited, possibly entering a volatile and weakening market again. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [6][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Monthly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - In June, coke futures rebounded from a low level, but are likely to weaken again in July. Spot prices had the third and fourth rounds of price cuts in June, and there are expectations of two rounds of price increases in July. The prices of coke in various regions and ports generally decreased in June [10][13][14]. - The freight for coke transportation fluctuated slightly in June [16]. 3.1.2 Supply - In June, coke enterprises' supply decreased due to environmental protection pressure. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coke enterprises decreased slightly. As of June 30, the capacity utilization rate of the national independent coke enterprise full - sample was 73.35%, and the daily coke output was 64.51 tons. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of 247 sample steel mills' coking plants increased slightly [23][25][30]. 3.1.3 Demand - Molten iron production first decreased and then increased in June, remaining at a high level, and is expected to decline at a slow rate in the future. As of June 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.82%, the capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, and the daily molten iron output was 242.29 tons [31][33]. - Speculative sentiment improved, export profits rebounded slightly, and building material transactions remained at a low level [34][36]. 3.1.4 Inventory - In June, inventory reduction was the main trend in all links, and the total inventory decreased. As of June 30, the total coke inventory was 940.87 tons, including 200.09 tons in ports [37][39]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profit per ton of coke was compressed, and the coke futures market profit declined. As of June 30, the profit per ton of 30 independent coke enterprises was - 46 yuan, and the futures market profit of coke 09 decreased by 32.7 yuan/ton to 331.5 yuan/ton [47][49]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. As of June 30, the basis of coke 09 was - 145.24, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38.5 [51][53]. 3.2 Coking Coal Monthly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - In June, coking coal futures rebounded from a low level, but are likely to weaken again in July. Spot prices mainly weakened in June, and some coal types rebounded slightly recently [56][59]. 3.2.2 Supply - In June, many coal mines in the production areas stopped or reduced production. It is expected that they will gradually resume production in July, but it will take time to fully return to normal production. The operating rate of coal washing plants decreased in June. As of June 30, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 59.1%, and the daily output of clean coal was 50.15 tons. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a medium level, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports in the first five months widened [62][67][70]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In June, downstream coking plants and steel mills replenished their inventories moderately in the late month, and the overall inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased. As of June 30, the total coking coal inventory was 2570.74 tons [71][73]. 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 had a slight premium, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened. As of June 30, the basis of coking coal 09 was - 25, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 36 [93][95].