Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased slightly. The chemical sector rebounded slightly, while the black and non - ferrous sectors declined. Currently, the relatively strong sectors in cross - section are chemicals and precious metals, and the relatively weak one is the black sector [2]. - In terms of strategy net worth, for methanol, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02% last week, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.11%, and this week's comprehensive signal is neutral. For float glass, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.15% last week, the synthetic factor increased by 0.11%, and this week's comprehensive signal is short. For iron ore, the supply factor strengthened by 0.80% last week, the inventory factor remained unchanged, the spread factor strengthened by 0.91%, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.60%, and this week's comprehensive signal turned short. For lead, the supply factor weakened by 0.16% last week, the demand factor weakened by 0.21%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.16%, the spread factor weakened by 0.21%, the synthetic factor weakened by 0.19%, and this week's comprehensive signal remains short [2][4]. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Conditions - Precious metals: Gold's time - series momentum stabilized, and the trading volume of Shanghai gold increased marginally. Silver changed relatively little [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: There were certain differences in trading volume, but the cross - section showed significant differentiation, with copper being relatively strong [2]. - Black metals: The differentiation of term structure narrowed, the trading volume factors of iron ore and rebar declined, and the long - term momentum factor decreased [2]. - Energy and chemicals: The cross - section momentum of chemicals in the energy - chemical sector was still higher than that of energy products [2]. - Agricultural products: The trading volume of oilseeds and meals remained at a low level, and soft commodities were relatively strong in the term - structure cross - section [2]. Factor Signals and Fundamentals Methanol - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.11%, and this week's comprehensive signal is neutral [2]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic capacity utilization rate and import volume of methanol both decreased, and the supply side is bullish [2]. Float Glass - Strategy net worth: Last week, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.15%, the synthetic factor increased by 0.11%, and this week's comprehensive signal is short [4]. - Fundamental factors: The operating rate of float - glass enterprises increased slightly, the supply side is neutral; the number of commercial - housing transactions in third - tier cities increased significantly, but the contribution of this factor is low, and the demand side remains neutral; the weekly enterprise inventory of Chinese float glass continued to increase slightly, and the inventory side continues to be short; the profits of float glass made from pipeline gas and steam - coal declined, and the profit side is slightly bearish [4]. Iron Ore - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.80%, the inventory factor remained unchanged, the spread factor strengthened by 0.91%, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.60%, and this week's comprehensive signal turned short [4]. - Fundamental factors: The arrival volume at Rizhao Port decreased compared with last week, and the supply - side signal turned short; the domestic production of blast - furnace pig iron continued to decline this month compared with last month, and the demand - side signal turned short; the inventory of iron concentrate powder at 45 ports continued to rise, and the inventory side remained neutral; the price of Atlas iron powder sold at Rizhao Port continued to rise, and the spread - side signal turned neutral [4]. Lead - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.16%, the demand factor weakened by 0.21%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.16%, the spread factor weakened by 0.21%, the synthetic factor weakened by 0.19%, and this week's comprehensive signal remains short [4]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic lead - concentrate processing fee continued to decline, and the supply - side signal remains short; the export volume of Chinese starting - type lead - acid batteries in May continued to decrease compared with April, and the demand - side signal remains neutral; the cancelled warrants of lead at the LME continued to rise, and the inventory side remains short; the profit of recycled lead increased, and the spread - side signal turned bullish [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly tracking of commodity quantitative CTA by Guotou Futures Research Institute's Financial Engineering Group [1][2] Group 2: Methanol Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of methanol increased by 0.08%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.09%, the inventory factor rose by 0.08%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.08%. This week's comprehensive signal is neutral [2][3] - The domestic methanol operating rate changed from an increase to a decrease, with the supply side being neutral; the MTO operating rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region decreased last week, turning the demand side bearish; the inventory of production enterprises was low and continued to be destocked, with the inventory side remaining bullish; the methanol futures price and the Inner Mongolia - Shandong regional spread factor released a bearish signal, with the spread side being neutral to bearish [3] Group 3: Float Glass Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of float glass decreased by 0.20%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.03%, the spread factor remained unchanged, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.03%. This week's comprehensive signal is bearish [6] - The weekly output of float glass enterprises decreased slightly, with the supply side being neutral; the real - estate transaction volume in first - and second - tier cities decreased, but increased in third - tier cities, with the demand side being neutral; the inventory of float glass enterprises was at a high level and slightly increased, with the inventory side remaining bearish; the main continuous basis released a bearish signal, with the spread side being neutral to bearish; the pre - tax gross profit of pipeline - gas - made float glass turned from negative to positive, with the profit side being neutral to bullish [6] Group 4: Iron Ore Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of iron ore weakened by 0.23%, the demand factor weakened by 0.16%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.24%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.13%. This week's comprehensive signal remains bearish [7] - The SMM domestic lead concentrate price continued to rise, turning the supply side signal bullish; the export volume of Chinese lead alloys in April decreased compared to March, with the demand side signal remaining bearish; the LME lead registered warehouse receipts decreased, with the inventory side remaining neutral to bearish; the SMM domestic lead concentrate processing fee continued to decline, with the spread side signal remaining bearish [7] Group 5: Lead Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of lead weakened by 0.23%, the demand factor weakened by 0.16%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.24%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.13%. This week's comprehensive signal remains bearish [7] - The SMM domestic lead concentrate price continued to rise, turning the supply side signal bullish; the export volume of Chinese lead alloys in April decreased compared to March, with the demand side signal remaining bearish; the LME lead registered warehouse receipts decreased, with the inventory side remaining neutral to bearish; the SMM domestic lead concentrate processing fee continued to decline, with the spread side signal remaining bearish [7]

Report Title - The report is titled "Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking" by Guotou Futures Research Institute's Financial Engineering Group, dated March 25, 2025 [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The commodity sector cross - section has switched, with internal differentiation in the energy and chemical sector, a decline in the agricultural products sector, and the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors remaining relatively strong in the cross - section. Specific sectors show different trends in momentum,持仓量, and term structure [3] Summary by Commodity Categories Overall Commodity Sector - The non - ferrous sector shows upward momentum, while the energy and chemical sector has internal differentiation, the agricultural products sector is down, and the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors are relatively strong. Different sectors have different changes in momentum,持仓量, and term structure indicators [3] Methanol - Strategy net value: The demand factor decreased by 0.23%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.19%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.15%. The comprehensive signal this week is neutral. Fundamental factors: The methanol arrival volume gives a long signal, domestic capacity utilization gives a short signal (supply is neutral); methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization decreased, acetic acid operating rate increased (demand is neutral); port inventory continued to decrease, and the short - side strength of the inventory factor weakened significantly to neutral; the Inner Mongolia - Shandong regional spread factor gives a long signal, and the spread factor is slightly long [5] Glass - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.20%, the demand factor decreased by 0.19%, the inventory factor decreased by 1.15%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.91%. The comprehensive signal this week is short. Fundamental factors: The float glass capacity utilization rate was flat month - on - month (supply is neutral); second - tier city commercial housing transaction data gives a short signal (demand is short); float glass enterprise inventory is relatively high year - on - year (inventory remains short); the domestic float glass market price gives a long signal, but the overall long - side contribution is not high (spread is slightly long) [9] Iron Ore - Strategy net value: The inventory factor weakened by 1.09%, the spread factor remained unchanged, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.34%. The comprehensive signal this week remains long. Fundamental factors: The iron ore arrival volume at Qingdao Port continued to decline compared with the previous week (supply signal turns neutral); the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises increased compared with the previous week (demand signal remains neutral); the inventory of Brazilian iron ore in 31 ports continued to rise (inventory remains long); the spot sales price of Rio Tinto's PB powder at Rizhao Port increased (spread signal remains neutral) [12] Aluminum - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.11%, the demand factor weakened by 0.68%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.12%, the spread factor remained unchanged, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.20%. The comprehensive signal this week remains long. Fundamental factors: The SMM domestic lead concentrate price continued to rise (supply signal remains long); China's lead alloy exports in March decreased compared with February (demand signal turns short); LME lead registered warrants decreased (inventory turns short); SMM concentrate import profit increased (spread signal is long) [12]