周度报告——风险管理 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 17 日 ★有色及贵金属板块 铜、铝、铅、多晶硅及铝合金看涨，价格稳居枢轴点上方， 回调不破支撑可短多，目标阻力区；锡、氧化铝、黄金看跌， 氧化铝承压枢轴点且强烈看跌，反弹至阻力且放量可短空； 锌镍等震荡品种维持区间。警惕碳酸锂等宽幅品种突破风 险，若有效破位或改变短期趋势。沪铜 CU2509 调整未结束， 79900 至 80200 阻力未破，对称三角形内待量能信号。 ★黑色及航运板块 黑色系全线震荡，焦煤价格承压于 1315-1320 阻力区，周三 长阴回吐涨幅且周五反弹量能缩减 24%，枢轴点附近波动难 破 S2/R2，短期不宜追多；欧线集运独立看涨，守稳枢轴点 后目标 R1/R2，回调至 S1 不破可布多单；需警惕焦煤/焦炭 宽幅波动风险，若铁矿石意外突破边界（下破 776 或上破 807） 可能打破黑色系震荡格局。 ★能化板块 LPG、20 号胶强烈看涨，价格站稳枢轴点后目标 R1/R2，回 调至 S1 支撑区不破可布多单；合成橡胶、烧碱看涨，枢轴点 上方趋势占优；纯碱宽幅震荡，周五放量 56%收长上影阴线， CCI 逼近超买，1320-133 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers specific ratings for different sectors and varieties within the futures market, including "strongly bullish," "bullish," "sideways," "bearish," and "strongly bearish" [11][23][34][44]. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the futures market from a technical perspective, providing signals and trends for various sectors and varieties. It suggests different trading strategies based on the volatility and trends of each variety, emphasizing the importance of risk management and trading with pivot points [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Carbonate lithium and cast aluminum alloy show bullish signals, while lead, tin, nickel, alumina, and stainless steel show bearish signals. The rest are sideways [10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like carbonate lithium have upward potential but are volatile; alumina faces downward pressure. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are suitable for range trading. Medium-volatility varieties are generally bearish, and low-volatility varieties like copper, aluminum, and gold suggest conservative strategies [15][18]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Hot-rolled coil, iron ore, rebar, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon show bearish signals, with rebar, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon being strongly bearish. The rest are sideways [22][23][24]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties such as coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon face downward risks. Coke is highly volatile but trendless. Medium-volatility varieties are under pressure, and low-volatility varieties like European container shipping are expected to be stable [29]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Asphalt shows a bearish signal, and the rest are sideways. In the chemical sector, soda ash, caustic soda, and urea are sideways, while glass and methanol are bearish [33][34]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like glass and PVC face significant downward pressure, while natural rubber has opportunities but is volatile. Medium-volatility varieties are generally bearish, and low-volatility varieties suggest a wait-and-see approach [40]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Rapeseed oil, live pigs, soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed meal, apples, and jujubes show bullish signals, while sugar and soybean No. 1 show bearish signals [43][44]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like apples have significant upward potential but are volatile, while rapeseed has no trend and is suitable for range trading. Medium-volatility bullish varieties have upward momentum, while bearish varieties like soybean No. 1 and sugar are under pressure. Oscillating varieties suggest a wait-and-see or range-trading approach [55].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamental data and relevant macro and industry news [4][6][10] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 793.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (-0.19%). The open - position decreased by 22,928 hands. Among spot prices, PB decreased by 3.0 yuan/ton, and others remained stable. Some basis and spreads changed slightly [6] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month; imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore, down 1.3% month - on - month [6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [7] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: RB2510 closed at 3,231 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; HC2510 closed at 3,440 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. Open - positions decreased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. Basis and spreads changed [10] - **News**: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. Weekly data on August 7 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased, and the price of manganese ore increased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [14] - **News**: There were price changes in silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [15][16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [16] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 increased. Some spot prices remained stable, while the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased. Basis and spreads changed [18] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [20] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts had small changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and open - positions. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [22] - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]

标:安安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿闻读、订阅读提任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的推介，亦不应放视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会跟换人以到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 王蒙 李先飞 莫骁雄 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0002529 Z0012691 Z0019413 | | | | | | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 wangrong2@gtht.com jixianfei@gtht.com moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 色及贵金属组 刘雨萱 张再宇 王宗源(联系人) Z0020476 Z0021 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 点评 16 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 34320 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.93%，持 仓减仓 5586 手至 61698 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 1180 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 7370 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.41%，持仓减仓 23640 手至 32.3 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升 水扩至 245 元/吨。随着硅煤电极等成本重心下调，西南电价优惠落地， 复产陆续推进，工业硅结束超跌修复、重归下行节奏。多晶硅增减产并 行，大部分厂家大规模减产，仍有西南少量厂家有增产计划。拉晶端即用 即采且倾向于低品混包硅料，压价态度坚决。晶硅库存周转延至 1 个半 月，降库重压下持续降价态势难以避免，现货升水稳步收敛。因企业大量 交仓盘面多头挤仓逻辑结束，反弹动力不再，延续弱势震荡。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...