Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Author: Research and Development Department of Guotou Futures, Financial Engineering Group [2] - Report Date: August 26, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased this week, with concentrated changes at both ends of the sectors. The factor intensity of the black sector significantly rebounded, and the internal differentiation of the agricultural and energy-chemical sectors continued to widen. Currently, the relatively strong sectors in cross-section are chemicals and black, while the relatively weak sector is energy. [3] Summary by Commodity Sector Overall Market Conditions - Gold's time-series momentum stabilized, but the internal differences in the precious metals sector continued to expand, with silver outperforming gold. - The position factor of the non-ferrous sector marginally rebounded, and the cross-sectional differentiation narrowed. - In the black sector, the momentum factor marginally rebounded, and iron ore was stronger than rebar in the term structure. - The cross-sectional momentum of the energy-chemical sector was differentiated, with chemicals at the stronger end and energy at the weaker end. - In the agricultural sector, the positions of oilseeds and meals both rebounded, and the short-term momentum of palm oil recovered. [3] Sector-specific Performance | Sector | Momentum Time-series | Momentum Cross-section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black | 0.21 | -0.29 | 0.85 | 1.25 | | Non-ferrous | 0.06 | 0.93 | -2.2 | -0.64 | | Energy-chemical | -0.37 | 0.57 | 0.02 | 0.16 | | Agricultural | 0.75 | -0.67 | 0.93 | 1.37 | | Stock Index | 0.31 | -0.1 | -0.32 | 0.48 | | Precious Metals | 0 | - | - | -0.15 | [3] Summary by Strategy and Fundamental Factors Methanol - Strategy Net Value: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.18%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.11%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short. - Fundamental Factors: The arrival volume of imported methanol decreased month-on-month, weakening the short strength on the supply side and turning it neutral; the operating rates of traditional downstream formaldehyde and acetic acid plants both decreased, making the demand side neutral to bearish; port inventories continued to increase, and the inventory side remained bearish; the spot prices of methanol in Shanxi and southern Shandong released bullish signals, but the factor contribution was not high, and the spread side was neutral to bullish. [3] Glass - Strategy Net Value: Last week, the inventory factor increased by 0.55%, the spread factor weakened by 0.10%, the profit factor decreased by 0.11%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. - Fundamental Factors: The number of commercial housing transactions in third-tier cities released a bearish signal, but the factor intensity was not high, making the demand side neutral; the inventory of Chinese float glass enterprises slightly increased, making the inventory side neutral; the profit loss of pipeline gas-made float glass slightly narrowed, making the profit side neutral; the spot price of float glass in the Hubei market released a bullish signal, making the spread side bullish. [5] Iron Ore - Strategy Net Value: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.03%, the inventory factor increased by 0.22%, the spread factor decreased by 0.2%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.03%. This week, the comprehensive signal turned long. - Fundamental Factors: The arrival volume of iron ore at northern ports significantly decreased, turning the supply-side signal to bullish; the daily average port clearance volume decreased, and the consumption of imported sintering ore powder by steel mills slightly declined, turning the demand side to bearish feedback, but the signal remained neutral; the average available days of imported iron ore for steel mills decreased, and the inventory accumulation speed of major ports slowed down, weakening the bearish feedback on the inventory side and turning the signal to neutral; the freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil, to Qingdao decreased, and the spread-side signal remained bullish, but the intensity slightly weakened. [7] Lead - Strategy Net Value: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.07%, the spread factor decreased by 0.06%, and the synthetic factor remained the same as last week. This week, the comprehensive signal turned long. - Fundamental Factors: The loss of SMM recycled lead widened, and the price of domestic lead concentrate declined, turning the supply-side signal to neutral; both LME lead inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts showed a de-stocking trend last week, turning the inventory-side signal to bullish; the average price of SMM lead ingots and the spot price of silver declined, weakening the bullish feedback on the spread side and turning the signal to neutral. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the non - ferrous and precious metals sector, copper, aluminum, lead, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy are bullish; tin, alumina, and gold are bearish; and zinc, nickel, etc. are range - bound. In the black and shipping sector, the black series is in a full - scale shock, while European line container shipping is independently bullish. In the energy and chemical sector, LPG and 20 - gauge rubber are strongly bullish, some are bullish, and others are mainly in shock. In the agricultural products sector, palm oil, sugar, and jujubes are bullish, soybean meal is mainly in shock, and the corn series is bearish [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Copper, aluminum, lead, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy show bullish signals; tin, alumina, and gold show bearish signals; and the rest are mainly in shock [10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Bullish varieties are above the pivot point, and short - term long positions can be arranged if the support is not broken. Bearish varieties are under pressure at the pivot point, and short - term short positions can be considered when rebounding to the resistance with volume. Volatile varieties need to be vigilant against breakthrough risks [15][18]. 3.2 Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The black sector is mainly in shock, and the shipping sector shows bullish signals [22][23]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The black series is in a full - scale shock, and European line container shipping is independently bullish. Coal and coke varieties need to be vigilant against wide - range fluctuations, and the shock pattern may be broken if the boundary is broken [30]. 3.3 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: 20 - gauge rubber, synthetic rubber, and caustic soda show bullish signals, and the rest are mainly in shock [34][35]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: LPG and 20 - gauge rubber are strongly bullish. Bullish varieties are dominant above the pivot point, and the chemical sector is in shock. Soda ash is in wide - range shock and can be operated in the short - term range [42]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Palm oil, sugar, and jujubes show bullish signals, soybean meal is mainly in shock, and corn and corn starch show bearish signals [46][47][49]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Palm oil, sugar, and jujubes are bullish. The bean and oil varieties are generally in shock, and the corn series is mainly bearish [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers specific ratings for different sectors and varieties within the futures market, including "strongly bullish," "bullish," "sideways," "bearish," and "strongly bearish" [11][23][34][44]. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the futures market from a technical perspective, providing signals and trends for various sectors and varieties. It suggests different trading strategies based on the volatility and trends of each variety, emphasizing the importance of risk management and trading with pivot points [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Carbonate lithium and cast aluminum alloy show bullish signals, while lead, tin, nickel, alumina, and stainless steel show bearish signals. The rest are sideways [10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like carbonate lithium have upward potential but are volatile; alumina faces downward pressure. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are suitable for range trading. Medium-volatility varieties are generally bearish, and low-volatility varieties like copper, aluminum, and gold suggest conservative strategies [15][18]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Hot-rolled coil, iron ore, rebar, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon show bearish signals, with rebar, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon being strongly bearish. The rest are sideways [22][23][24]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties such as coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon face downward risks. Coke is highly volatile but trendless. Medium-volatility varieties are under pressure, and low-volatility varieties like European container shipping are expected to be stable [29]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Asphalt shows a bearish signal, and the rest are sideways. In the chemical sector, soda ash, caustic soda, and urea are sideways, while glass and methanol are bearish [33][34]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like glass and PVC face significant downward pressure, while natural rubber has opportunities but is volatile. Medium-volatility varieties are generally bearish, and low-volatility varieties suggest a wait-and-see approach [40]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Rapeseed oil, live pigs, soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed meal, apples, and jujubes show bullish signals, while sugar and soybean No. 1 show bearish signals [43][44]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like apples have significant upward potential but are volatile, while rapeseed has no trend and is suitable for range trading. Medium-volatility bullish varieties have upward momentum, while bearish varieties like soybean No. 1 and sugar are under pressure. Oscillating varieties suggest a wait-and-see or range-trading approach [55].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamental data and relevant macro and industry news [4][6][10] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 793.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (-0.19%). The open - position decreased by 22,928 hands. Among spot prices, PB decreased by 3.0 yuan/ton, and others remained stable. Some basis and spreads changed slightly [6] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month; imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore, down 1.3% month - on - month [6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [7] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: RB2510 closed at 3,231 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; HC2510 closed at 3,440 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. Open - positions decreased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. Basis and spreads changed [10] - **News**: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. Weekly data on August 7 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased, and the price of manganese ore increased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [14] - **News**: There were price changes in silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [15][16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [16] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 increased. Some spot prices remained stable, while the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased. Basis and spreads changed [18] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [20] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts had small changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and open - positions. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [22] - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly offers day - to - day data on various metals including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin. 3. Summary by Metal Categories Gold (AU) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Gold (AU) main contract was 777.06 yuan/gram, down 4.22 yuan from the previous trading day, 4.22 yuan from last week, and 6.18 yuan from last month [1]. - The closing price of the COMEX gold main contract was 3336.00 dollars/ounce, down 32.70 dollars from the previous trading day, 5.60 dollars from last week, and up 5.00 dollars from last month [1]. - The London gold spot price was 3341.08 dollars/ounce, up 3.98 dollars from the previous trading day, 11.63 dollars from last week, and down 6.90 dollars from last month [1]. Silver (AG) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Silver (AG) main contract was 8919 yuan/kilogram, down 25 yuan from the previous trading day, up 127 yuan from last week, and up 69 yuan from last month [1]. - The closing price of the COMEX silver main contract was 0.25 dollars/ounce, down 0.91 dollars from the previous trading day, up 37.04 dollars from last week, and up 0.88 dollars from last month [1]. - The London silver spot price was 0.57 dollars/ounce, up 0.29 dollars from the previous trading day, up 1.08 dollars from last week, and up 36.88 dollars from last month [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper (CU) main contract was 79730 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan from the previous trading day, down 830 yuan from last week, and up 800 yuan from last month [1]. - The closing price of the International Copper (BC) main contract was 70990 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan from the previous trading day, down 260 yuan from last week, and up 690 yuan from last month [1]. - The LME copper 3M closing price (15:00) was 9871.50 dollars/ton, down 113.50 dollars from the previous trading day, down 24.50 dollars from last week, and up 128.50 dollars from last month [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum (AL) main contract was 20635 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan from the previous trading day, down 45 yuan from last week, and up 565 yuan from last month [1]. - The closing price of the Alumina (AO) main contract was 3024 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day, up 38 yuan from last week, and up 123 yuan from last month [1]. - The LME aluminum 3M closing price (15:00) was 2597.50 dollars/ton, down 14.50 dollars from the previous trading day, up 14.50 dollars from last week, and up 134.00 dollars from last month [1]. Zinc (ZN) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc (ZN) main contract was 22410 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan from the previous trading day, unchanged from last week, and up 25 yuan from last month [1]. - The LME zinc 0 - 3 premium was - 9.75 dollars/ton, down 9.49 dollars from the previous trading day, up 8.05 dollars from last week, and up 22.61 dollars from last month [1]. - The refined zinc spot import profit and loss was - 1015.30 yuan/ton, down 96.61 yuan from the previous trading day, up 194.72 yuan from last week, and down 571.87 yuan from last month [1]. Lead (PB) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead (PB) main contract was 17295 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day, up 170 yuan from last week, and up 515 yuan from last month [1]. - The LME lead 3M closing price (15:00) was 2064.50 dollars/ton, down 5.00 dollars from the previous trading day, up 28.50 dollars from last week, and up 75.00 dollars from last month [1]. - The refined lead spot import profit and loss was - 817.26 yuan/ton, down 121.99 yuan from the previous trading day, down 58.82 yuan from last week, and up 64.60 yuan from last month [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel (NI) main contract was 122270 yuan/ton, up 480 yuan from the previous trading day, up 1790 yuan from last week, and up 70 yuan from last month [1]. - The closing price of the Stainless Steel (SS) main contract was 12730 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day, up 110 yuan from last week, and up 50 yuan from last month [1]. - The LME nickel 0 - 3 premium was - 155 dollars/ton, up 35 dollars from the previous trading day, up 50 dollars from last week, and up 50 dollars from last month [1]. Tin (SN) - On July 4, 2025, the LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was 33590 dollars/ton, down 140 dollars from the previous trading day, up 40 dollars from last week, and up 1050 dollars from last month [1]. - The Shanghai refined tin spot import profit and loss was - 12332.95 yuan/ton, down 769.69 yuan from the previous trading day, up 942.29 yuan from last week, and down 3224.39 yuan from last month [1]. - The tin ore processing fee was 12000 yuan/ton [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On June 16, polysilicon fluctuated with a bullish bias. The main contract 2507 closed at 34,320 yuan/ton, up 1.93% intraday, and the open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 61,698 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material dropped to 35,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon material also dropped to 35,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 1,180 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also fluctuated with a bullish bias. The main contract 2509 closed at 7,370 yuan/ton, up 0.41% intraday, and the open interest decreased by 23,640 lots to 323,000 lots. Baichuan's reference price for industrial silicon spot remained stable at 8,636 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 245 yuan/ton. - As the cost centers of silicon coal and electrodes have declined and electricity price discounts in the southwest have been implemented, the resumption of production is progressing. Industrial silicon has ended its oversold correction and returned to a downward trend. For polysilicon, there are both production increases and decreases. Most manufacturers have significantly reduced production, while a small number of manufacturers in the southwest still have production increase plans. The crystal pulling end adopts a just-in-time procurement strategy and prefers low-quality mixed-pack silicon materials, with a firm attitude towards price reduction. The inventory turnover of crystalline silicon has extended to one and a half months. Under the heavy pressure of inventory reduction, the continuous price reduction trend is inevitable, and the spot premium is steadily converging. Due to a large number of enterprises delivering to the warehouse, the logic of long squeeze on the futures market has ended, and there is no longer any impetus for a rebound, so it continues to fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research View - Polysilicon fluctuated with a bullish bias while industrial silicon also showed a similar trend on June 16. The cost decline and production resumption in industrial silicon have led to a return to the downward trend, and polysilicon is facing production adjustment and inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 115 yuan/ton to 7,280 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 23,640 lots to 323,000 lots. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon spot remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 40 yuan to 245 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1,097 to 56,823, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 428,800 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 625 yuan/ton to 34,320 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 61,698 lots. The prices of various grades of polysilicon spot remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 35,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 625 yuan to 1,180 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,600, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 26.6 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of other organic silicon products were mostly stable, except that the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of industrial silicon of different grades, brand spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [11][15][17]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, cost and profit of DMC, and cost and profit of polysilicon [26][28][31]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in the field of non-ferrous metals research and have made significant contributions to the industry [36][37].