1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the long - short ratio of commodities has changed little. The factor strength of the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors has declined slightly, while that of the agricultural products sector has risen slightly. The cross - sectionally strong sectors are non - ferrous and black, and the weak one is agricultural products. [3] - In terms of strategy net worth, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02% last week, the demand factor weakened by 0.03%, the inventory factor increased by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Sector Analysis - **Non - ferrous and Precious Metals**: The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector continues to rise, with a certain reversal in the term structure. The positions of silver have decreased marginally. Gold's time - series momentum has increased slightly. [3] - **Black Sector**: The time - series momentum of the black sector shows a marginal increase, the cross - sectional differentiation has narrowed, and the positions of coking coal and coke are still at a high level. [3] - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The short - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemical sector has recovered, and soda ash is at the cross - sectional short end. [3] - **Agricultural Products Sector**: The cross - sectional differentiation of oilseeds and meals has narrowed, the overall time - series momentum has recovered, but the positions have not changed significantly. [3] 3.2 Factor Performance and Signal Analysis - **Factor Performance**: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.03%, the inventory factor increased by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.04%. In the fundamentals, the arrival volume of imported methanol increased, the long - strength of the supply side weakened and turned neutral; the capacity utilization rate of the glacial acetic acid industry increased, the demand side was long; the inventory of methanol in East China ports released a long signal, but the strength weakened; the spot prices of methanol in the inland and coastal areas were differentiated, and the spread side was neutral. [5] - **Comprehensive Signals**: Different commodities have different comprehensive signals. For example, for methanol, this week's comprehensive signal is long; for iron ore, this week's comprehensive signal turns long; for Shanghai aluminum, this week's comprehensive signal turns from long to short; for float glass, this week's comprehensive signal is long. [5][13][15] 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Methanol**: The arrival volume of imported methanol has increased, the long - strength of the supply side has weakened and turned neutral. The capacity utilization rate of the glacial acetic acid industry has increased, the demand side is long. The inventory of methanol in East China ports has released a long signal, but the strength has weakened. The spot prices of methanol in the inland and coastal areas are differentiated, and the spread side is neutral. [5] - **Iron Ore**: The shipment volume from BHP has decreased slightly, the port arrival volume has dropped, the supply side has a long feedback, and the signal remains neutral. The blast furnace operating rate of steel enterprises continues to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed, the demand - side long feedback continues to weaken, and the signal remains neutral. The average available days of imported iron ore for steel mills have decreased, the inventory of domestic sintering ore powder continues to be destocked, the inventory side has a long feedback, and the signal remains neutral. The spot price center has risen, and the spread side signal turns long. [13] - **Shanghai Aluminum**: SMM's recycled lead losses have narrowed, the price of imported lead concentrate has increased, and the supply - side signal has changed from neutral to short. LME lead inventory has been destocked, and the long - signal strength on the inventory side has increased. The spread between the near and far months of LME lead has narrowed, the long feedback on the spread side has weakened, and the signal has changed from long to neutral. [13] - **Float Glass**: The operating rate of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply side has turned long. The transaction volume of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities has increased, and the demand side is long. Float glass enterprises in Shandong and Guangdong have slightly destocked, and the inventory side continues to be long. The daily after - tax gross profit of float glass made from pipeline gas continues to be in a loss, and the profit side continues to be short. [15]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking" by Guotou Futures Research Institute's Financial Engineering Group, dated December 23, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly, with the factor strength of precious metals remaining high and that of the agricultural products sector decreasing slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors are relatively strong in the cross - section, while the agricultural products sector is relatively weak [3] Summary by Commodity Category Overall Commodity Situation - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. Precious metals factor strength remained high, and the agricultural products sector decreased slightly. The relatively strong cross - sectional sectors are precious metals and non - ferrous metals, while the agricultural products sector is relatively weak [3] Specific Commodity Analysis Metals - **Precious Metals**: The time - series momentum of gold increased slightly, and the marginal increase in silver's trading volume was greater, remaining in a relatively strong range. The divergence at both ends of the cross - section widened [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous metals sector rebounded, the divergence of the term structure narrowed, and both copper and tin were relatively strong in the cross - section [3] - **Black Metals**: The time - series momentum showed a marginal decline. The trading volumes of iron ore and rebar remained neutral, while those of coking coal and coke remained at a high level [3] Energy and Chemicals - The short - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemicals sector rebounded, and soda ash was at the short end of the cross - section [3] Agricultural Products - The cross - sectional divergence of oilseeds and meals narrowed. Although the downward trend at the time - series momentum level weakened marginally, the trading volume was at a recent low [3] Strategy Net Worth and Fundamental Factors Methanol - Last week, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.02%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. On the fundamental factors, import methanol arrivals and domestic road freight prices sent long signals on the supply side; the raw material procurement volume of domestic methanol - to - olefins enterprises decreased, sending a short signal on the demand side; methanol ports continued to destock last week, and the long signal on the inventory side continued; the spot price of inland methanol fell, while that of port methanol was relatively strong, and the spread side was neutral [5] Float Glass - Last week, the supply factor increased by 1.51%, the demand factor strengthened by 1.62%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.13%, the spread factor increased by 0.29%, and the profit factor strengthened by 0.21%. The synthetic factor increased by 1.38%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short. On the fundamental factors, the start - up of float glass enterprises was flat month - on - month, the supply side was neutral; the number of second - tier city commercial housing transactions increased, the demand side was slightly long; float glass enterprises in Hebei and Hubei slightly accumulated inventory, the long strength on the inventory side weakened and turned neutral; the daily after - tax gross profit loss of pipeline - gas - made float glass increased, and the short signal on the profit side continued [8] Iron Ore - Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.59%, and the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19%. This week, the comprehensive signal remained neutral. The supply side turned to a short feedback but the signal remained neutral; the demand side's long feedback weakened and the signal turned neutral; the inventory side's signal changed from short to neutral; the short feedback on the spread side weakened slightly and the signal remained neutral [10] Aluminum - Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.6%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.56%, the spread factor increased by 0.51%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42%. This week, the comprehensive signal changed from short to long. The supply side signal changed from short to neutral; the inventory side signal changed from neutral to long; the spread side signal changed from short to long [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities remained basically unchanged this week. The strength of the precious metals factor remained high, while that of the non-ferrous and agricultural product sectors decreased. The precious metals sector was relatively strong, and the agricultural product and chemical sectors were relatively weak [2]. - The differentiation within the agricultural product sector widened, with the cross - section differentiation of oil and meal products increasing, and the marginal decline in the positions of soybean oil and sugar [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Overall Situation - The cross - sectionally strong sector was precious metals, and the weak ones were agricultural products and chemicals. Gold's time - series momentum increased, and although the marginal position of silver decreased, it remained above the neutral range, with the cross - section differentiation at both ends widening [2]. - In the non - ferrous sector, the short - cycle momentum decreased marginally, the cross - section momentum differentiation narrowed, and zinc was relatively strong in the cross - section [2]. - In the black sector, the term structure showed narrowing differentiation, the positions of iron ore and rebar remained at low levels, and the short - cycle momentum increased slightly [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the short - cycle momentum factor rebounded, and soda ash was at the short end of the cross - section [2]. Factor Returns and Signals - **Methanol**: The demand factor weakened by 0.07%, the inventory factor increased by 0.12%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.05%. This week, the comprehensive signal was long. The supply side was neutral to long, the demand side was neutral, the inventory side turned long, and the spread side was neutral [3][4]. - **General Situation (First Table)**: The supply factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of 0.56%; the demand factor had a weekly return of - 0.07% and a monthly return of - 0.88%; the inventory factor had a weekly return of 0.12% and a monthly return of 1.45%; the spread factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of 0.00%; the cumulative return of major categories was 0.05% for the week and 0.50% for the month [3]. - **General Situation (Second Table)**: The supply factor had a weekly return of - 0.46% and a monthly return of - 0.36%; the demand factor had a weekly return of - 0.49% and a monthly return of - 0.49%; the inventory factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of - 0.21%; the spread factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of - 0.26%; the profit factor had a weekly return of 1.07% and a monthly return of 1.82%; the cumulative return of major categories was - 0.32% for the week and - 0.36% for the month [7]. - **General Situation (Third Table)**: The supply factor decreased by 0.08% last week, the inventory factor increased by 0.67%, and the comprehensive factor strengthened by 0.2%. This week, the comprehensive signal changed from short to neutral [10][13]. - **Iron Ore**: The comprehensive signal changed from short to neutral. The supply side's long feedback further weakened, the demand side's long feedback strengthened, the inventory side's short signal strength increased, and the spread side's short feedback strengthened [13]. - **Aluminum**: The demand factor strengthened by 0.38 last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.13%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.45%, the synthetic factor increased by 0.18%, and this week, the comprehensive signal remained short [13]. - **Float Glass**: The supply factor decreased by 0.46% last week, the demand factor weakened by 0.49%, the profit factor strengthened by 1.07%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week, the comprehensive signal was short. The supply side was neutral, the inventory side's long strength increased, the spread side was short, and the profit side continued to be short [15]. Sector Momentum and Other Indicators | Sector | Momentum Time - Series | Momentum Cross - Section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | - 0.08 | | Non - ferrous | 0.05 | - 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | Energy and Chemical | - 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.69 | | Agricultural Product | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.41 | - 0.19 | | Stock Index | - 0.71 | 0.46 | - 0.63 | 1.06 | | Precious Metals | 0.12 | | | 0.88 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor intensity of the black and chemical sectors declined, while the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The cross - sectionally stronger sector is non - ferrous, and the weaker ones are chemicals and agricultural products. The overall signal for commodities this week is a combination of long and short positions in different sectors and factors [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Overall Situation - The proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly this week. The factor intensity of the black and chemical sectors declined, and the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The cross - sectionally stronger sector is non - ferrous, and the weaker ones are chemicals and agricultural products [3]. Specific Sector Analysis Non - ferrous Metals - Gold's time - series momentum declined, silver's trading volume remained at a high level, and the cross - sectional divergence widened. The short - term momentum of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, the cross - sectional momentum divergence narrowed, and copper and zinc were strong while tin was weak in the cross - section [3]. Black Metals - The term structure showed narrowing divergence. The trading volumes of coking coal and coke remained at low levels, and the short - term momentum of iron ore reversed and declined [3]. Energy and Chemicals - The long - term momentum factor declined, and ethylene glycol was at the short end of the cross - section [3]. Agricultural Products - The cross - sectional divergence of oilseeds and meals narrowed, and the trading volume of soybean oil decreased marginally [3]. Strategy Net Worth and Fundamental Factors Commodities - The demand factor weakened by 0.01%, the inventory factor increased by 0.36%, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%, and the comprehensive signal this week was short. For methanol, the domestic production capacity utilization rate was flat, the demand side's long - position strength weakened to neutral, the inventory side signaled short - positions, and the spread side was slightly long [3]. Float Glass - Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week's comprehensive signal was long. The supply, demand, and inventory sides signaled long - positions, the spread side was neutral, and the profit side continued to signal short - positions [9]. Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week's comprehensive signal changed from long to short. The supply, demand, inventory, and spread sides all had changes in their signals, with the overall trend turning bearish [11]. Lead - Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.46%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.5%, the spread factor weakened by 0.33%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week's comprehensive signal remained short. The supply side's long - position feedback further weakened, the inventory side's short - position feedback weakened, and the spread side's short - position signal intensity increased [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various commodities and markets, with most commodities expected to show an oscillatory trend, and some showing a tendency of oscillating strongly or weakly. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy environments, and geopolitical events [3]. Summary by Category Financial - **Stock Index**: In a market with shrinking volume, potential lifting of the ban on share sales and reduction pressure, and a policy window period, funds are congested and waiting to be released. A dumbbell - shaped strategy of looking at the long - term and trading in the short - term is recommended, with an oscillatory trend [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank conducts treasury bond trading, and subsequent aggregate monetary policy tools may be further implemented. In the fourth quarter, the allocation demand of institutional investors may increase seasonally, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly. Currently, opportunities for curve steepening and positive spreads are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Attention should be paid to the release of US PMI and ADP employment data this week. The price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4000, 4400], and that of London silver in the range of [53, 60], showing an oscillatory trend [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Supply constraints persist, and supply - disturbing factors are increasing, so the copper price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are stable, so the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly. In the medium - term, the marginal increase in supply is limited, and demand has certain resilience, so the price center is expected to rise [3]. - **Alumina**: The current supply - demand is in excess, but the valuation is in a low - level range, so it is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Zinc**: Recently, the inventory of LME zinc has increased significantly, but the "short squeeze" has not eased significantly. Entering the off - season of consumption, downstream demand for zinc ingots is weakening, and supply remains high. However, the export window for domestic zinc ingots has opened, and domestic inventory is decreasing. The zinc price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Tin**: With the current tightness in the ore end, the bottom support for the tin price is strong, so it is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Lead**: Currently at the end of the traditional peak consumption season, but the replacement of old cars and electric bicycles is still ongoing. The orders for lead - acid batteries have improved, and the procurement demand for lead - zinc is expected to remain high. Recently, many primary and secondary lead smelters have carried out maintenance, and lead ingot production has declined. The lead price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Nickel**: The current supply - demand is loose, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it depends on the official announcement of next year's nickel ore quota in Indonesia, which may decrease, so there is uncertainty in supply, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Due to the suppression of the price by the fundamentals during the seasonal off - season transition, but considering the long - term suppression of industry profits and the support from the ore end, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost changes [3]. New Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, with medium - term looseness and short - term shortages coexisting. The price is expected to oscillate widely [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price, but the demand is also weakening. The price is expected to oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to whether there are substantial policy signals at the end of the year and the process of new warrant registration [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: If the silicone industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will further weaken, and the inventory pressure may increase again. However, the short - term market sentiment is volatile. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warrant registration [3]. - **Cobalt**: The conflict in eastern Congo has escalated, and although it has not affected cobalt mining for the time being, the potential risks are expected to increase, so the cobalt price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Although the fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated, the current valuation of the futures market is too low, and the low - production state in China will continue. The downstream has strong expectations of replenishing inventory, and the spot price has bottom support. The near - month contract price is expected to oscillate, and the far - month contract is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke are still healthy, and the price mainly follows the cost of coking coal. In the case of the continued weakening of raw material spot prices, the current round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but there are still expectations of winter inventory replenishment. The continuous implementation of multiple rounds of price cuts is less likely, and the futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - **Iron Ore**: There is still a seasonal decline expectation for molten iron output, the rigid demand support is gradually weakening, and the inventory replenishment demand has not been significantly released. After the previous price increase, there is insufficient support for further upward movement. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand side still has resilience, and inventory continues to decline, but the pressure of high - year - on - year inventory remains, and the fundamental contradiction has not been resolved. The Sino - US presidential call sent a positive signal, and the Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, and the macro - environment is still warm. The futures price has the driving force to rebound from a low level, but the upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. - **Rebar**: The fundamentals of rebar have continued to improve recently. The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. The Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, there are still expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, and the Sino - US presidential call sent a positive signal, and the macro - environment is warm. The futures price has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the inventory level of rebar is still high year - on - year, and as the off - season deepens, the demand expectation is still under pressure, and the fundamental highlights are limited. The upward space of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The firm cost supports the bottom of the silicon ferrosilicon price, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price increase is weak. The cost transfer to the downstream is difficult. The main - contract futures price is expected to operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of raw material prices and settlement electricity prices [3]. - **Manganese Silicate**: The cost of manganese silicate still has support, but the market supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure on the price is large. The cost transfer to the downstream is difficult. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices [3]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, the improvement in demand is obvious, and the fundamentals have improved, but the improvement is limited. Only when subsequent cold - repair is further implemented can the glass price continue to recover. Otherwise, the price may decline under the pressure of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. In the long - term, due to the increasingly strict environmental protection requirements, the supply side will face clearance and cost increase, and the far - month valuation may rebound [3]. - **Soda Ash**: In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of soda ash have improved to some extent. If the production remains low after the mid - stream inventory reduction, there may be a short - term positive feedback, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, there will still be low - cost production capacity coming on - stream, and the supply - demand surplus will intensify. The price needs to continue to decline to suppress production [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: It is oscillating and waiting for the guidance of the OPEC+ meeting and geopolitical factors [3]. - **Natural Gas**: The European natural gas price is oscillating, and the US natural gas price may be strong in the short - term [3]. - **Steam Coal**: Attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side policies and the change in inventory replenishment rhythm. The medium - and long - term reasonable price range of 570 - 770 still has great reference value [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are both expected to oscillate and decline [3]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [3]. - **LPG**: Attention should be paid to whether the optimistic expectations for Saudi Arabia on December 8 can be fulfilled. Currently, the basis is continuously low, the pressure on refining margins is increasing, and the upward space of the spot price is expected to be relatively limited. The upward space of the futures price should not be overly optimistic. Attention should be paid to the generation of warrants [3]. Chemicals - **Benzene Ethylene**: The inventory accumulation pressure of pure benzene in December is still being realized, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [3]. - **PX**: In the short - term, it is greatly affected by sentiment and cost. The price is expected to operate in the range of [6650, 6950], and the PXN is expected to oscillate in the range of [250, 290] US dollars per ton [3]. - **PTA**: It is greatly affected by cost and market sentiment. In the short - term, it will oscillate following the cost, and the price will be sorted in the range of [4650, 4850]. The processing margin of the 01 contract can be operated in the range of [220, 300] yuan per ton [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the low - level range in the short - term, and the upward elasticity of the price is obviously pressured. The EG01 - 05 spread can be cautiously reverse - arbitraged at high levels, and the operation space is [-75, -100] [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price of short - fiber fluctuates with the raw material, and the processing margin will fluctuate between 950 - 1100 yuan per ton. A short - PF and long - TA position can be lightly established [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing margin has strong support at the short - term range bottom, but the upward pressure is also large. It is expected to operate in the range of [400, 550], and the absolute price of bottle chips will fluctuate with the raw material [3]. - **Methanol**: After the overseas fluctuation information is confirmed, the futures price quickly rebounded to fulfill the expectation. After the rebound this week, the upward momentum of the methanol futures price has weakened. Attention should be paid to whether the digestion trend of coastal inventory can continue, and it is expected to oscillate [3]. - **PP and PE**: The upward space is limited, and they should be regarded as range - bound. The change in maintenance is still the key point of observation [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The electricity price in December has decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has decreased by 80 yuan per ton, opening the downward space of the futures price. If the low - profit situation promotes upstream production cuts or the warrant logic before delivery intensifies, the futures price may stabilize [3]. - **PVC**: The 01 contract is facing position - taking games in the short - term and shows a small - scale rebound. In the long - term, if there are no positive factors such as upstream production cuts due to low profits, increased exports, or unexpected policies, the futures price may return to a weak trend [3]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. After the inspection of the December reserve progress, the short - term reserve push may return to the normal progress, and this demand support is relatively stable in the long - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the overall progress of off - season storage [3]. Agriculture Feed and Livestock - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. The import crushing margin has been repaired, and soybean procurement has accelerated. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is slowly decreasing seasonally, and downstream customers are placing orders at low - level futures prices, with increased spot trading volume and a rising basis. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the contract roll [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly. Before the effective repair of downstream and mid - stream inventories, the price is likely to oscillate at a high level. It is necessary to wait for the release of upstream inventory and the alleviation of downstream supply tension [3]. - **Pig**: In the near - term, the pig price will continue to be weak, as the fourth - quarter pig production is still in the period of high - capacity realization, and the end - of - year pressure to sell large pigs is increasing. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture is guiding enterprises to cut production, and the continuous loss of breeding profits is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The far - month contract price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to the reverse - arbitrage strategy opportunity [3]. Soft Commodities - **Apple**: Against the background of strong support for the spot price, combined with the expectations of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking and possible weather speculation, the futures price is relatively firm, and the sentiment is optimistic. Attention can be paid to the low - long opportunity after a pull - back, and subsequent attention should be paid to the weather changes in the producing areas. The price is expected to oscillate strongly for the time being [3]. - **Rubber**: It is not the time for a trending market, and the current price is closer to the upper pressure level. In terms of arbitrage, the RU - MR spread reached a phased high last week, and one can choose to exit and wait and see [3]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate in a range; in the long - term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is advisable to go long at a low price [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures market is mainly about the game of warrants, and the paper pulp futures price is expected to oscillate widely [3]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Since the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the new crushing season, the sugar price has a downward driving force. The operation strategy is to go short on rallies [3]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to oscillate [3].

Core Viewpoint - The global copper prices are experiencing volatility due to liquidity pressures and market uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market previously anticipated a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, but this expectation has dropped to around 40% due to emerging domestic issues in the U.S. [1] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, complicating the central bank's ability to manage market expectations effectively [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - Recent events such as the U.S. government shutdown and delays in the release of key economic data have contributed to the current market volatility [1] - The end of the year is typically a time for institutions to realize profits, making the Federal Reserve's actions a catalyst for portfolio adjustments [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Impact - The fluctuations in policy expectations have led to a turbulent trading environment for commodities, particularly in the context of copper prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price has broken through the downward trend and is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality, but the downside is limited. Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market has upward momentum. For polysilicon, the upcoming industry conference in Chengdu next week may boost market sentiment. The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure due to short - term weakening of power and energy storage demand and increased ore shipments. Palm oil has fully priced in short - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. Soybean oil lacks driving forces from the US soybean side and will fluctuate. [4][5][29][60][88] - For nickel, the current situation is mainly characterized by the contradiction of smelting inventory accumulation. Both the current and expected supply - demand situations limit the upside potential of Shanghai nickel. Although there are some nickel ore governance news in Indonesia, the inventory accumulation contradiction is more prominent. For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals lack upward driving forces, but the cost perspective makes short - selling at low levels less cost - effective. [4][5] - Industrial silicon's supply is expected to decrease from November, and the demand is also marginally declining. The key lies in whether the organic silicon enterprises will jointly cut production. Polysilicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the upcoming conference in Chengdu may boost market sentiment. [30][31][33][34] - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure due to increased supply from Australian mines and weakening demand in the energy storage and power sectors. [61][62] - Palm oil has entered a price - gaming period, with short - term marginal themes lacking. The large inventory at the end of the year has been well - priced, and the international oil price is in the bottom - building stage. Soybean oil has a strong price bottom support, but it is necessary to be vigilant against crude oil price fluctuations. [89][90][91] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: The nickel price has broken through the downward trend, and stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,440 yuan, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,565 yuan. [4][5][14] - **Inventory Situation**: On November 14, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,563 tons to 54,243 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,014 tons to 252,090 tons. In the nickel - stainless steel sector, the SMM nickel - iron inventory in October was 29,564 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and a 27% year - on - year increase. The SMM stainless steel factory inventory in October was 1.574 million tons, with a 9% year - on - month and 3% month - on - month increase. [6][8] - **Market News**: There are various news in the Indonesian nickel market, including forestry workgroups taking over mines, sanctions on mining companies, and plans to adjust nickel production and quotas in 2026. [9][10][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a range, and the spot price remained unchanged. The polysilicon futures price first fell and then rose, and the spot price was stable. The industrial silicon futures closed at 9,020 yuan/ton on Friday, and the polysilicon futures closed at 54,045 yuan/ton. [29] - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's industry inventory decreased this week, with supply decreasing due to production cuts in the southwest region. The demand is in a weak state. Polysilicon's upstream inventory increased, with short - term production decreasing and demand also weakening. [30][31][32] - **Future Outlook**: Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being depleted, and the market has upward momentum. It is recommended to go long at low prices, with the expected price range of 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton next week. Polysilicon's upcoming conference in Chengdu may boost market sentiment, and the expected price range is 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. [33][34] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate futures contract rose and then fluctuated at a high level. The 2601 contract closed at 87,360 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5,060 yuan/ton. The spot price was 85,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4,750 yuan/ton. [60] - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: The lithium ore price exceeded $1,000/ton, and the domestic port lithium concentrate inventory increased. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was basically flat, and the inventory continued to decrease. The demand for energy storage and power decreased. [61] - **Future Outlook**: The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure, and the price range of the futures main contract is expected to be 73,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton. [62] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Last week, the palm oil 01 contract fell 0.18%, and the soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.88%. This week, the palm oil main contract closed at 8,644 yuan/ton, with a - 0.41% change, and the soybean oil main contract closed at 8,256 yuan/ton, with a 1.05% increase. [88][93] - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: Malaysia's palm oil production in the fourth quarter may be higher than last year, and the inventory at the end of the year may remain at a relatively high level. Indonesia's palm oil export tariff is in a price - gaming stage. For soybean oil, the production situation in Brazil is good, and the US soybean oil has resolved some of the pressure through price adjustments. [89][90] - **Future Outlook**: Palm oil has entered a price - gaming period, with short - term marginal themes lacking. The large inventory at the end of the year has been well - priced, and the international oil price is in the bottom - building stage. Soybean oil has a strong price bottom support, but it is necessary to be vigilant against crude oil price fluctuations. [89][90][91]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Author: Research and Development Department of Guotou Futures, Financial Engineering Group [2] - Report Date: August 26, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased this week, with concentrated changes at both ends of the sectors. The factor intensity of the black sector significantly rebounded, and the internal differentiation of the agricultural and energy-chemical sectors continued to widen. Currently, the relatively strong sectors in cross-section are chemicals and black, while the relatively weak sector is energy. [3] Summary by Commodity Sector Overall Market Conditions - Gold's time-series momentum stabilized, but the internal differences in the precious metals sector continued to expand, with silver outperforming gold. - The position factor of the non-ferrous sector marginally rebounded, and the cross-sectional differentiation narrowed. - In the black sector, the momentum factor marginally rebounded, and iron ore was stronger than rebar in the term structure. - The cross-sectional momentum of the energy-chemical sector was differentiated, with chemicals at the stronger end and energy at the weaker end. - In the agricultural sector, the positions of oilseeds and meals both rebounded, and the short-term momentum of palm oil recovered. [3] Sector-specific Performance | Sector | Momentum Time-series | Momentum Cross-section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black | 0.21 | -0.29 | 0.85 | 1.25 | | Non-ferrous | 0.06 | 0.93 | -2.2 | -0.64 | | Energy-chemical | -0.37 | 0.57 | 0.02 | 0.16 | | Agricultural | 0.75 | -0.67 | 0.93 | 1.37 | | Stock Index | 0.31 | -0.1 | -0.32 | 0.48 | | Precious Metals | 0 | - | - | -0.15 | [3] Summary by Strategy and Fundamental Factors Methanol - Strategy Net Value: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.18%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.11%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short. - Fundamental Factors: The arrival volume of imported methanol decreased month-on-month, weakening the short strength on the supply side and turning it neutral; the operating rates of traditional downstream formaldehyde and acetic acid plants both decreased, making the demand side neutral to bearish; port inventories continued to increase, and the inventory side remained bearish; the spot prices of methanol in Shanxi and southern Shandong released bullish signals, but the factor contribution was not high, and the spread side was neutral to bullish. [3] Glass - Strategy Net Value: Last week, the inventory factor increased by 0.55%, the spread factor weakened by 0.10%, the profit factor decreased by 0.11%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. - Fundamental Factors: The number of commercial housing transactions in third-tier cities released a bearish signal, but the factor intensity was not high, making the demand side neutral; the inventory of Chinese float glass enterprises slightly increased, making the inventory side neutral; the profit loss of pipeline gas-made float glass slightly narrowed, making the profit side neutral; the spot price of float glass in the Hubei market released a bullish signal, making the spread side bullish. [5] Iron Ore - Strategy Net Value: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.03%, the inventory factor increased by 0.22%, the spread factor decreased by 0.2%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.03%. This week, the comprehensive signal turned long. - Fundamental Factors: The arrival volume of iron ore at northern ports significantly decreased, turning the supply-side signal to bullish; the daily average port clearance volume decreased, and the consumption of imported sintering ore powder by steel mills slightly declined, turning the demand side to bearish feedback, but the signal remained neutral; the average available days of imported iron ore for steel mills decreased, and the inventory accumulation speed of major ports slowed down, weakening the bearish feedback on the inventory side and turning the signal to neutral; the freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil, to Qingdao decreased, and the spread-side signal remained bullish, but the intensity slightly weakened. [7] Lead - Strategy Net Value: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.07%, the spread factor decreased by 0.06%, and the synthetic factor remained the same as last week. This week, the comprehensive signal turned long. - Fundamental Factors: The loss of SMM recycled lead widened, and the price of domestic lead concentrate declined, turning the supply-side signal to neutral; both LME lead inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts showed a de-stocking trend last week, turning the inventory-side signal to bullish; the average price of SMM lead ingots and the spot price of silver declined, weakening the bullish feedback on the spread side and turning the signal to neutral. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the non - ferrous and precious metals sector, copper, aluminum, lead, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy are bullish; tin, alumina, and gold are bearish; and zinc, nickel, etc. are range - bound. In the black and shipping sector, the black series is in a full - scale shock, while European line container shipping is independently bullish. In the energy and chemical sector, LPG and 20 - gauge rubber are strongly bullish, some are bullish, and others are mainly in shock. In the agricultural products sector, palm oil, sugar, and jujubes are bullish, soybean meal is mainly in shock, and the corn series is bearish [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Copper, aluminum, lead, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy show bullish signals; tin, alumina, and gold show bearish signals; and the rest are mainly in shock [10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Bullish varieties are above the pivot point, and short - term long positions can be arranged if the support is not broken. Bearish varieties are under pressure at the pivot point, and short - term short positions can be considered when rebounding to the resistance with volume. Volatile varieties need to be vigilant against breakthrough risks [15][18]. 3.2 Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: The black sector is mainly in shock, and the shipping sector shows bullish signals [22][23]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The black series is in a full - scale shock, and European line container shipping is independently bullish. Coal and coke varieties need to be vigilant against wide - range fluctuations, and the shock pattern may be broken if the boundary is broken [30]. 3.3 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: 20 - gauge rubber, synthetic rubber, and caustic soda show bullish signals, and the rest are mainly in shock [34][35]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: LPG and 20 - gauge rubber are strongly bullish. Bullish varieties are dominant above the pivot point, and the chemical sector is in shock. Soda ash is in wide - range shock and can be operated in the short - term range [42]. 3.4 Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Palm oil, sugar, and jujubes show bullish signals, soybean meal is mainly in shock, and corn and corn starch show bearish signals [46][47][49]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Palm oil, sugar, and jujubes are bullish. The bean and oil varieties are generally in shock, and the corn series is mainly bearish [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers specific ratings for different sectors and varieties within the futures market, including "strongly bullish," "bullish," "sideways," "bearish," and "strongly bearish" [11][23][34][44]. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the futures market from a technical perspective, providing signals and trends for various sectors and varieties. It suggests different trading strategies based on the volatility and trends of each variety, emphasizing the importance of risk management and trading with pivot points [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Carbonate lithium and cast aluminum alloy show bullish signals, while lead, tin, nickel, alumina, and stainless steel show bearish signals. The rest are sideways [10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like carbonate lithium have upward potential but are volatile; alumina faces downward pressure. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are suitable for range trading. Medium-volatility varieties are generally bearish, and low-volatility varieties like copper, aluminum, and gold suggest conservative strategies [15][18]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Hot-rolled coil, iron ore, rebar, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon show bearish signals, with rebar, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon being strongly bearish. The rest are sideways [22][23][24]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties such as coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon face downward risks. Coke is highly volatile but trendless. Medium-volatility varieties are under pressure, and low-volatility varieties like European container shipping are expected to be stable [29]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Asphalt shows a bearish signal, and the rest are sideways. In the chemical sector, soda ash, caustic soda, and urea are sideways, while glass and methanol are bearish [33][34]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like glass and PVC face significant downward pressure, while natural rubber has opportunities but is volatile. Medium-volatility varieties are generally bearish, and low-volatility varieties suggest a wait-and-see approach [40]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Rapeseed oil, live pigs, soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed meal, apples, and jujubes show bullish signals, while sugar and soybean No. 1 show bearish signals [43][44]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: High-volatility varieties like apples have significant upward potential but are volatile, while rapeseed has no trend and is suitable for range trading. Medium-volatility bullish varieties have upward momentum, while bearish varieties like soybean No. 1 and sugar are under pressure. Oscillating varieties suggest a wait-and-see or range-trading approach [55].