Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has strengthened against all major currencies following comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, suggesting that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan should adjust their policy interest rates [1] Group 1 - The strengthening of the yen is attributed to two main factors: comments regarding the Federal Reserve and those concerning the Bank of Japan [1] - Market speculation indicates that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as December, with some believing it could happen in October [1] - Market participants are paying close attention to Yellen's remarks, which are perceived as supportive of a stronger yen [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's second-quarter GDP data is expected to show a stagnation in growth, with a projected annualized growth rate of 0.2%, just enough to offset the contraction in the first quarter [1]. Economic Indicators - The second-quarter GDP growth rate is anticipated to hover around 0% on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1]. - The annualized growth rate, after seasonal adjustment, is forecasted to rise modestly by 0.2% [1]. Export and Domestic Consumption - Export momentum has weakened, influenced by a decline in exports to the U.S. and sluggish overseas demand [1]. - Private consumption remains lackluster, as wage growth lags behind inflation [1]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The persistent weakness in GDP suggests that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates in the short term [1]. - Although a trade agreement with the U.S. may alleviate tariff uncertainties, the Bank of Japan is expected to wait for stronger wage recovery and stable inflation before normalizing its policy [1]. - The forecast for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the fourth quarter remains unchanged [1].

Core Insights - Despite global trade tensions and domestic political uncertainties, the majority of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - A recent Reuters survey indicates that 83% of the 72 economists surveyed (60 individuals) expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy during the meetings on July 30-31 and in September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points by the end of the year, despite current global trade tensions and domestic political uncertainties [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - 83% of the 72 respondents in the survey expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy during the meetings on July 30-31 and in September [1] - 54% of respondents anticipate that borrowing costs will rise from 0.50% to at least 0.75% in the next quarter, a notable increase from the 48% who expected a rate hike in the previous June survey [1]

Core Viewpoint - Weak wage data in Japan complicates the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates, with inflation-adjusted wages declining by 2.9% year-on-year in May compared to a 2.0% drop in April [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's real wages have shown a significant decline, with a 2.9% year-on-year decrease in May, indicating challenges in wage growth [1] - The economic outlook for Japan is described as "very challenging" due to stalled trade negotiations with the United States and potential tariff increases on Japanese goods [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan faces increasing difficulties in raising interest rates as wage growth remains sluggish, complicating its monetary policy decisions [1] - Despite the challenges, there is still an expectation that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates, although further declines in wages could hinder this decision [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's board member Takeda Soichi stated that it is impossible to determine how long the Bank of Japan can wait before raising interest rates based on preset views [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is currently in a position where it cannot make definitive judgments regarding the timing of potential interest rate hikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is currently in a phase of pausing interest rate hikes [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy committee member Takeda Soichi indicated that the central bank is not planning to raise interest rates at this time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian central bank unexpectedly raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 15%, while the market had anticipated it to remain unchanged at 14.75% [1] Group 1 - The decision to increase the interest rate indicates a shift in monetary policy aimed at controlling inflation [1] - The unexpected rate hike may impact various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rate changes such as real estate and consumer finance [1] - Analysts will need to reassess their forecasts for economic growth and inflation in light of this new monetary policy stance [1]

经合组织预计日本央行将进一步加息，加拿大央行则可能继续降息。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy committee member Asahi Noguchi believes there is no need for the central bank to intervene in the bond market despite recent significant increases in ultra-long-term bond yields, describing the volatility as "rapid but not unusual" [1] - Noguchi emphasizes the necessity to pause interest rate hikes until the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy becomes clearer, indicating that current economic uncertainty makes rate adjustments meaningless [1][3] - The recent rise in ultra-long-term bond yields has reached historical highs, influenced by political calls for large-scale fiscal spending, while short-term bond yields remain stable due to reduced expectations for rate hikes [1][2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan exited its large-scale stimulus program last year, which included maintaining bond yields around zero, and raised the short-term policy rate to 0.5% in January, citing progress in achieving the 2% inflation target [2] - In the upcoming policy meeting, the Bank of Japan will conduct a mid-term evaluation of its bond reduction plan and consider strategies for after April 2026, with Noguchi suggesting no major adjustments are necessary at this time [3] - Concerns over global economic slowdown due to U.S. tariffs have led the Bank of Japan to significantly lower its growth forecasts, raising questions about the sustainability of wage increases supporting consumption and the overall economy [3]