Core Viewpoint - Japanese government bond futures rose slightly in early Tokyo trading as investors digested the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey results, which showed a large manufacturer sentiment index of 15, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The large manufacturer sentiment index reported by the Bank of Japan was 15, matching market expectations [1] - Market participants are anticipating the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, with U.S. employment data set to be released prior to this meeting [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Citigroup's economist, Masahiko Akiyama, indicated that if the U.S. employment data does not cause significant market turmoil as seen last summer, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates as scheduled [1] - A key focus for the Bank of Japan will be how much they will hint at future rate hikes amid the ongoing trend of a weakening yen [1] Group 3: Market Movements - The ten-year Japanese government bond futures increased by 0.09 yen, reaching 134.14 yen [1]

欧洲政府债券大跌，德国国债收益率攀升至3月以来的最高水平，交易员开始押注欧洲央行明年可能加 息。 德国五年期国债收益率上涨9个基点至2.49%，为3月18日以来最高水平。 货币市场已押注欧洲央行在2026年12月前加息25个基点的概率为30%，这是自该央行去年开始降息以 来，市场对加息行动最激进的押注。 英国国债也下跌，五年期国债收益率上涨7个基点至4%；交易员正等待英国央行货币政策委员会成员 Alan Taylor和Clare Lombardell周一晚些时候的发言，此前数据显示英国薪酬增长加速。 市场： 德国国债收益率上涨8个基点至2.87%； 德国国债期货跌80点至127.35%； 意大利10年期国债收益率上涨9个基点至3.57%； 欧洲政府债券大跌，德国国债收益率攀升至3月以来的最高水平，交易员开始押注欧洲央行明年可能加 息。 德国五年期国债收益率上涨9个基点至2.49%，为3月18日以来最高水平。 货币市场已押注欧洲央行在2026年12月前加息25个基点的概率为30%，这是自该央行去年开始降息以 来，市场对加息行动最激进的押注。 英国国债也下跌，五年期国债收益率上涨7个基点至4%；交易员正等待英国央 ...

日本经济在第三季度的萎缩幅度超出最初预估，修正数据显示这是六个季度以来的首次收缩，这为日本 经济刺激方案进一步提供了合理性。 日本政府周一发布数据显示，第三季度GDP折合年率萎缩2.3%，较初步预估的1.8%降幅进一步扩大， 预期中值跌幅为2%，这是六个季度以来的首次下降，主要受企业支出低于预期的影响。 数据发布后，十年期日本国债收益率有所下行，目前十年期国债收益率上涨至1.953%，日本20年期国 债收益率上行2.4BP，升至2.946%。此前日债因市场对日本央行近期加息预期升温而大幅攀升。 | 日本10年期国债收益率 | 1.953 10:01:14 | +0.004 | +0.21% | 1.948 - 1.955 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | JP10YR | | | | | | 日本20年期国债收益率 | 2.946 10:01:11 | +0.024 | +0.82% | 2.934 - 2.946 | | JP20YR | | | | | | 日本2年期国债收益率 JP2YR | 1.045 09:11:12 | -0.002 | -0.19% | 1. ...

新华财经北京12月4日电据路透社报道，三位日本政府消息人士称，日本央行很可能在12月加息，而政 府预计将支持这一决定。消息人士称，日本央行似乎准备将政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，这也是行长 植田和男周一在演讲中发出的信号。这将是自今年1月以来的首次加息。 （文章来源：新华财经） 其中一位消息人士称："如果日本央行想在本月加息，请自行决定。这是政府的立场。"他补充说，央行 本月进行加息几乎是确定无疑的。 植田和男周一表示，日本央行将考虑本月加息的"利弊"，预示着在12月18日至19日的会议上加息的可能 性很大。这些言论导致市场对12月加息的定价约为80%的可能性。市场的关注点可能会转向央行关于其 最终会将利率提高到何种程度的措辞，而植田和男目前对这一话题仍然模棱两可。 ...

1日下午，日经225指数一度较上一交易日收盘下跌超过1000点，跌幅达2.05%。 日本央行行长植田和男1日表示，本月18日、19日召开的下次货币政策会议"将对是否加息作出恰当判断"。受植田发言影响，市场对日本央行将在下次会 议上进一步加息的预期升温。国债遭抛售，作为日本长期利率指标的新发10年期国债收益率一度升至1.875%，这是自2008年6月以来的最高水平。 当地时间12月1日，受日本央行加息预期影响，日本东京股市日经225指数大幅收跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, stated that the recent depreciation of the yen is not driven by fundamental factors, indicating potential intervention in the foreign exchange market to address excessive volatility and speculative movements [1] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The yen has experienced significant depreciation recently, which has raised concerns in the foreign exchange market [1] - The Finance Minister emphasized the need to monitor and potentially intervene in the currency market to stabilize the yen [1] Group 2: Central Bank Insights - Market participants are closely watching the upcoming speech from the Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda, for any signals regarding a possible interest rate hike in the December meeting [1] - The statement aligns with the joint declaration made in September by Japan and the U.S., which asserted that exchange rates should be determined by market forces [1]

Core Insights - Early signs of Japan's 2026 wage negotiations indicate a robust salary increase despite profit pressures from U.S. tariffs, supporting further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, seeks more data to understand the initial trends of next year's wage negotiations [1] - Labor unions are pushing for significant salary increases, with the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (RENGO) aiming for a 5% or more wage hike in 2026, following a historic increase in 2025 [1] Economic Implications - Continuous wage growth is expected to bolster private consumption, giving the Bank of Japan confidence to raise interest rates without jeopardizing economic recovery [1] - Despite substantial wage increases in recent years, real wage growth remains negative due to core consumer inflation consistently exceeding the Bank's 2% target [1] - RENGO's demand for a 5% wage increase in 2026 reflects a broader trend of labor organizations advocating for higher compensation amid rising living costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's GDP contracted by 1.8% on an annualized basis in Q3 2025, marking the first economic shrinkage in six quarters [1] Economic Data - Japan's real GDP decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter [1] - The annualized decline of 1.8% indicates a significant downturn in economic performance [1] Trade Relations - In September, a trade agreement was reached between the US and Japan, resulting in a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese products entering the US [1] Government Response - The Japanese government is formulating a stimulus plan to alleviate the impact of rising living costs on households [1] - The recent GDP data may complicate the Bank of Japan's plans for further interest rate hikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economist Takushi Aida, a member of Japan's key advisory committee, suggests that the Bank of Japan should avoid raising interest rates in December and wait until January to support the fragile economy [1] Economic Outlook - Aida indicates that the Japanese economy may have contracted in the third quarter, highlighting the risks associated with a potential rate hike in December [1] - He emphasizes the need for substantial government spending to alleviate the impact of rising living costs on households until real income recovers [1] Policy Recommendations - Aida argues that a December rate hike would contradict the government's efforts to stimulate the economy through large-scale spending [1] - He believes that if the Bank of Japan anticipates robust economic growth by the fiscal year 2026, a rate increase in January would be a more viable option [1]

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - Barclays suggests that traders are underestimating the likelihood of an unexpected interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week, predicting a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% [1] - According to Capital Economics, Eurozone inflation is expected to decline further in the coming months, potentially leading to another rate cut by the European Central Bank [2] - DBS Bank analysts indicate that the Bank of Japan may raise its policy rate by 25 basis points in December, depending on wage negotiations and the Federal Reserve's actions [3] - UOB economists believe that the Bank of Thailand may need to cut rates more than expected to combat deflation risks, with predictions of 25 basis point cuts in December and Q1 of next year [5] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - Eurozone inflation decreased from 2.2% in September to 2.1% in October, attributed to falling energy and food prices, while core inflation remained at 2.4% [2] - The European Central Bank's survey indicates that inflation is expected to stabilize around the 2% target in the coming years, with economic growth projected to gradually recover [2] - Thailand's consumer prices have fallen for six consecutive months, raising concerns about deflation driven by weak bank credit and high private sector leverage [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Sentiment - Hedge funds are betting that the Japanese yen will fall to 160 against the US dollar by year-end, driven by the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan [4] - A report from Bank of America highlights a record outflow of $7.5 billion from gold funds in a single week, following a previous week of significant inflows [6]