Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, particularly focusing on domestic demand and emerging market exports [4][54]. Core Insights - In April, home appliance exports showed a mixed performance with a slight increase in quantity (+1.5%) but a decrease in value (-1.7%). Air conditioner exports rose significantly by 14.5% [11][13]. - The report highlights strong growth in emerging markets, particularly Southeast Asia and Africa, with export values increasing by 70% and 43% respectively [13][16]. - The air conditioning production for June is projected to increase by 35%, driven by domestic demand and favorable market conditions [21][23]. Summary by Sections 1. April Home Appliance Export Performance - Home appliance exports in April showed a quantity increase of 1.5% but a value decrease of 1.7%. Air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and LCD TVs had varied performances with air conditioners and washing machines showing notable growth [11][12][14]. 2. Regional Export Trends - Southeast Asia and Africa led the growth in exports, while North America and Europe experienced significant declines. For instance, air conditioner exports to South America and the Middle East grew by 37% and 31% respectively [16][18]. 3. Production Insights - The report indicates that air conditioning production in June is expected to reach 20.75 million units, a 17% increase year-on-year, with domestic production rising by 35.4% [21][23]. 4. Market and Sector Tracking - The report tracks market performance, noting a slight decline in the Shanghai Composite Index but a 0.4% increase in the home appliance sector index. Key stocks showed varied performance, with notable gains in companies like Stone Technology and Aishida [24][27]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic demand and subsidy-driven growth in the white goods sector, as well as opportunities in the black goods sector and small appliances [4][54].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the home appliance industry in China, specifically focusing on export data for April 2025 and the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Growth Trends**: In April 2025, China's home appliance exports showed a month-on-month decline due to high base effects and U.S. tariffs, with a year-on-year increase of 93% in export value, totaling 603 billion RMB [2][1]. - **Regional Performance**: North America experienced a significant decline in appliance exports, with air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and vacuum cleaners seeing year-on-year decreases of 1.1%, 15%, 19%, and 33% respectively. In contrast, Asia and Latin America maintained high growth rates, while Europe and Africa showed a slowdown [3][1]. - **Impact of U.S. Tariffs**: The U.S. tariffs imposed on Chinese appliances have led to a notable drop in exports to the U.S., with air conditioners down 7%, refrigerators down 19%, washing machines down 27%, and vacuum cleaners down 40% [5][1]. - **Future Outlook**: The upcoming 90-day tariff exemption period may lead to a temporary surge in exports, although the extent is expected to be less than in the previous year. Emerging markets are anticipated to continue their high growth trajectory, and the overall home appliance industry in China is expected to remain stable within a growth range [6][1]. Production Forecasts - **Production Adjustments**: For May to July 2025, external production of air conditioners is projected to decline by 2%, 12%, and 17% year-on-year, while domestic production is expected to grow by 15%, 29%, and 37%. The production growth rates for refrigerators and washing machines are also expected to slow down due to overseas inventory and base effects [7][8]. Company-Specific Insights - **Major Players' Exposure**: - Haier has a significant exposure to the U.S. market, with over 30% of its revenue coming from there, primarily covered by local production [9][1]. - Midea's exposure is around 8%, with 40% of its revenue covered by overseas production [9][1]. - Gree has minimal exposure at about 2%, which can be managed through its Brazilian production base [10][1]. - **Small Appliance Component Firms**: Companies like Sanhua and Ousheng Electric have varying levels of exposure to the U.S. market, with Ousheng's small appliance business having a 70% revenue share from the U.S. and plans to cover this through its Malaysian factory [11][12]. Recommended Investment Targets - **Export Chain Recommendations**: - Traditional export companies such as Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. are recommended due to their significant growth and ability to mitigate tariff risks through overseas production [13][1]. - In the white goods sector, Haier and Midea are highlighted for their global layout and relatively low exposure to the U.S. market, benefiting from favorable domestic policies [13][1].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [5] Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, the home appliance export continued to show double-digit growth, with a notable recovery in export growth in March despite the impact of US tariffs. The export volume maintained a high growth rate of +20%, while the average export price in RMB showed a year-on-year decline of -5% [1][12][16] - The global manufacturing PMI averaged 49.9% in Q1 2025, indicating resilience in international market demand, with exports to over 170 countries and regions achieving growth [1][16] - The North American channel replenishment is expected to support the improvement of domestic home appliance companies' export data [2][25] Summary by Sections Export Data - In March 2025, the domestic home appliance export value was 642 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year, and 9 billion USD, up 13% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the export value was 1736 billion RMB, up 10% year-on-year, and 242 billion USD, up 9% year-on-year [1][12] Category Performance - In Q1 2025, major categories such as white goods, kitchen appliances, small appliances, and color TVs maintained positive growth, with white goods leading at a growth rate of 23% [2][20] - In the US, white goods export growth reached 15%, while in Latin America, white goods and small appliances saw impressive growth rates of 46% and 18% respectively [2][22] Inventory and Orders - US durable goods inventory has been declining since Q3 2021, with a year-on-year decrease of about 5% as of Q4 2024, indicating a relatively low inventory level [2][25] Market Trends - The home appliance sector showed a positive performance in the stock market, with the home appliance index rising by 1.89% during the week of April 21-25, 2025 [3][29] - The report suggests that the upcoming peak season for air conditioning and the 618 shopping festival in May will further strengthen retail sales [3][4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include major appliances like Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as small appliances like Supor and Feike Electric [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][11][12]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is experiencing a recovery driven by government subsidy policies, with offline retail sales of major appliances showing significant growth in early 2025. Online demand for small kitchen appliances has also rebounded [1][2][16]. - In January and February 2025, the total retail sales of home appliances increased by 1.4% online and 10.2% offline year-on-year, with offline sales benefiting from the "old-for-new" subsidy policy [2][17]. - The export value of home appliances in the first two months of 2025 grew by 8% year-on-year, continuing a positive growth trend despite a high base from the previous year [3][26]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Offline retail sales of major appliances showed strong growth, with specific categories like air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increasing by 21.4%, 5.5%, and 13.1% respectively in early 2025. Online sales for these categories varied, with some experiencing declines [2][17]. - The small kitchen appliance segment saw a notable recovery in online sales, with January showing a decline of 12.9% and February rebounding by 27.3% [2][17]. Export Trends - The export volume of home appliances reached 6.9 billion units in the first two months of 2025, marking a 9.4% increase year-on-year. The export value in RMB was 1093.9 billion, reflecting a 7.6% increase [3][26]. Company Performance - iRobot reported a significant revenue decline of 44.1% in Q4 2024, facing challenges in major markets such as the US and Europe. The company's gross margin also decreased, indicating pressure on profitability [4][31]. Market Data Tracking - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +0.28% this week, outperforming the broader market [5][36]. - Raw material prices for copper and aluminum increased by 1.5% and 0.2% respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices rose by 2.0% [5][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies within the home appliance sector, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Gree Electric, all rated as "Outperform the Market" [6][12][50].