2025 年 11 月 21 日 相关研究 券研究报 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 红利、科技与出海: 2026 家 容三年线 -2026 年家电行业投资策略 本期投资局示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 需求显著改善,估值触底反弹。白电板块,根据产业在线数据,25年1-9月空调累计实 ● 现内销量 9081 万台，同比+8.4%，24 年"以旧换新"政策于 7 月底落地，1-8 月具备 一定低基数优势。25Q1/Q2/Q3 单季度空调内销同比+6.2%/+11.6%/+6.0%，其中 7/8/9 月同比+14.3%/+1.2%/-2.5%，进入 25Q3，家空内销增速逐步放缓。厨电板块，国补显 著拉动销售，25H1 延续增长势头。根据奥维云网数据，24 年油烟机实现零售额 362 亿 元，同比+14.9%；燃气灶零售额 204亿元，同 ...

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 2025 年 11 月 16 日 各品牌陆续发布双十一战报，九阳 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 本周家电板块跑赢沪深 300 指数。本周申万家用电器板块指数上涨 1.1%，同期沪深 300 指数下降 1.1%。重点公司方面，九阳股份（26.6%）、莱克电气（12.2%）、海信视 像（7.1%）领涨；三花智控（-12.3%）、荣泰健康（-2.6%）、科沃斯（-1.5%）领跌。 ⚫ 行业动态：1）石头科技发布双十一战报：登顶清洁电器品牌 TOP1，扫地机市场份额 TOP1，达到 34.75%，洗地机市场份额 TOP2，达到 25.02%，净销售额同比增长 408.52%。吸尘器净销售额同比增长 2295.52%。2）九阳豆业"哈基米豆浆"引领热 潮：九阳豆业推出名为"哈基米南北绿豆豆浆"的植物饮料并在消费市场掀起热潮，九 阳豆浆旗舰店所属公司为杭州 ...

Core Insights - The home appliance industry shows resilient growth with a 3.6% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, totaling 366.3 billion yuan, despite external pressures from reduced government subsidies and high export bases [13][14][22] - The overall net profit for the industry increased by 4.4% year-on-year, reaching 30.1 billion yuan, with a slight improvement in net profit margin by 0.1 percentage points [13][14][22] Segment Analysis White Goods - The white goods segment reported a revenue of 268.7 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 9.5% [30][31] - Major players like Midea and Haier showed strong performance, with Midea's revenue growing by 9.9% and Haier's by 9.5% [33][34] Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance segment experienced a revenue decline of 4.8% in Q3, totaling 5.96 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 8.4% [37][44] - Traditional kitchen appliance companies like Boss and Vanward maintained relatively stable performance, while integrated stove manufacturers faced significant pressure [43][44] Black Goods - The black goods segment saw a revenue decrease of 3.6% in Q3, amounting to 47.29 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 41.9% to 1.4 billion yuan [45][53] - Companies like Hisense maintained stable growth, benefiting from balanced domestic and international operations [52][53] Small Appliances - The small appliance segment achieved a revenue growth of 6.3% in Q3, reaching 30.62 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 6.7% [54][59] - Emerging categories within small appliances, such as robotic vacuum cleaners, contributed significantly to revenue growth [59] Lighting and Components - The lighting and components segment reported stable revenue of 13.73 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1%, but faced profit pressure with a net profit margin of 4.6% [3][28]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the shift from a singular focus on "growth speed" to "growth quality" and "brand sustainable value" in the business landscape of 2025, highlighting the importance of brands that can navigate market fluctuations and lead industry breakthroughs [1][3] Brand Recognition - The "2025 Annual Brand Power Case" evaluation recognized eight brands, including Boss Electric, for their ability to embody the concept of "lasting innovation," showcasing their resilience and adaptability in a changing market [1][3] - Boss Electric reported a revenue of 7.312 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.157 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, demonstrating robust growth while launching a new brand positioning as "Your AI Cooking Partner" [1][3] Brand Evolution - The article discusses how brands like IKEA and Boss Electric have maintained their foundational values while continuously innovating, with Boss Electric's journey reflecting the evolution of China's economy and consumer behavior over the past four decades [3][4] - The concept of "lasting innovation" requires brands to actively engage in youth-oriented, localized, and digital transformations to stay relevant to new consumer segments [3][4] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape in the cooking appliance sector has intensified over the past 40 years, with Boss Electric emerging as a leader by focusing on improving cooking environments and setting industry standards [5][6] - The transition from basic functionality to quality-driven consumer demands has characterized the Chinese home appliance market, with Boss Electric choosing to deepen its focus on the cooking sector rather than diversifying into unrelated areas [6][9] Technological Integration - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has expanded the boundaries of brand value, with Boss Electric leveraging AI to enhance user experience and create a more interactive kitchen environment [7][10] - Boss Electric's AI cooking model, "Shishen," integrates extensive culinary knowledge and user data to provide personalized dietary planning and facilitate seamless operation across kitchen devices [10][11] Cultural and Humanistic Approach - The brand's new positioning emphasizes the role of AI as a supportive tool in the cooking process, ensuring that the human element remains central to culinary creativity [11][12] - Boss Electric has invested in cultural initiatives, such as establishing a Culinary Humanities Research Institute and promoting culinary education, to deepen its connection with consumers and enhance brand warmth [12][14] Conclusion - Brands like Boss Electric exemplify the journey of local brands in China, demonstrating that maintaining core values while embracing innovation is crucial for sustained growth and relevance in a rapidly changing market [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 24.2 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 450 million yuan, up 0.6% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue growth was primarily driven by an increase in retail channel sales, with core products such as range hoods, gas stoves, and dishwashers seeing price increases. However, the engineering channel faced pressure due to the low prosperity of the real estate sector [8]. - The gross profit margin improved to 54.1%, a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points, attributed to a decrease in the proportion of lower-margin engineering channel revenue and a decline in stainless steel prices [8]. - The net profit margin slightly decreased to 16.5%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased marketing expenses ahead of promotional events [8]. - The company is expected to face short-term demand pressure due to the real estate market but maintains resilience through active marketing and product diversification. Long-term prospects are positive with a focus on multi-category development [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,213 million yuan, 11,387 million yuan, 11,725 million yuan, and 12,106 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.1%, 1.6%, 3.0%, and 3.2% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,577 million yuan in 2024A, increasing to 1,775 million yuan by 2027E, with growth rates of -9.0%, 2.4%, 5.9%, and 3.8% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 1.67 yuan in 2024A to 1.88 yuan in 2027E, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12, 11, 11, and 10 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The home appliance retail industry is experiencing structural differentiation due to multiple factors such as the reduction of national subsidies and intensified competition, making operational resilience and robust development capabilities the focus of market attention [1] Industry Overview - The core variable in the home appliance market in 2025 remains the "trade-in for new" national subsidy policy, which has seen a phase adjustment leading to a slowdown in industry growth [2] - From January to September 2025, the home appliance retail sales increased by 5.2% year-on-year to 670.1 billion yuan, but the market showed a "high before low" characteristic, with a significant decline in the third quarter [2] - In the third quarter, retail sales fell by 3.2% year-on-year, with September seeing a drop of 19.2%, directly impacting the growth rate for the first three quarters [2] - Major appliance categories such as televisions, air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines experienced double-digit declines, with television sales down 19.3% and air conditioner sales down 28.1% from January to September 2025 [2] Company Performance - Despite the overall pressure in the home appliance and commerce sectors, the company achieved a relatively stable operational performance, reporting a revenue of 38.131 billion yuan and a net profit of 73.33 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - The company has maintained profitability for six consecutive quarters, with third-quarter revenue reaching 12.236 billion yuan and a net profit of 24.637 million yuan [3] Business Segments - The company's core business remained stable, with a 3.5% year-on-year increase in store sales and a 5.4% increase in comparable store sales for home appliances and 3C products in the first three quarters [5] - The retail cloud business saw a 7% year-on-year increase in sales revenue, while the government and enterprise business also experienced rapid growth [5] - The company expanded its store network, adding 31 new stores in the first three quarters, excluding adjustments to certain supermarket electrical stores [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on internal improvements, optimizing store scenarios, and implementing a large store strategy to enhance competitive differentiation [5] - To capitalize on the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the company opened seven upgraded Suning Max stores in key cities, enhancing the retail experience [6] - The company is deepening supply chain collaboration and has announced an early start to the Double 11 shopping festival, launching a "True Benefit Supplement" product in partnership with major brands [8] - The company is actively addressing debt issues, with a reported decrease in the asset-liability ratio by 0.49% compared to the beginning of the period [8] Long-term Outlook - The home appliance industry is transitioning into an "AI" phase, with significant growth in AI-integrated products, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and expectations [11] - The company is investing in AI technology to enhance operational efficiency and is exploring partnerships to build a comprehensive AI ecosystem [9] - The company's long-term investments in store upgrades and renovations may lead to short-term cost increases but are expected to yield long-term benefits [13]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the performance of the electronic sector, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector holdings reaching a historical high of 40% [12][12][12] - The report indicates that the electronic sector's profit growth is expected to be robust, with a projected net profit growth of 54% in 2025, followed by 34% and 25% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [12][12][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring PPI (Producer Price Index) trends, as a shift from negative to positive growth could influence market style changes, favoring value stocks over growth stocks [12][12][12] Group 2 - The report on Aofei Data (300738) indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 1.824 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, and a net profit of 145 million yuan, up 37.3% [13][13][13] - Aofei Data's gross margin improved to 35% in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 9.4 percentage points year-on-year, with a further increase to 37.6% in Q3 [13][13][13] - The report notes that Aofei Data's asset and liability structure shows strong delivery potential for data centers, with new fixed assets amounting to 3.161 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [13][13][13] Group 3 - The report on Jinlei Co., Ltd. (300443) states that the company achieved a gross margin of 24.63% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 1.88 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin reaching 26.41% [15][15][15] - The report indicates that the company is expanding its high-end transmission equipment market, with a focus on free forging products, which have seen a compound annual growth rate of 57% over the past three years [15][15][15] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinlei Co., Ltd., projecting net profits of 447 million yuan, 652 million yuan, and 758 million yuan for 2025-2027 [15][15][15] Group 4 - The report on Hisense Visual (600060) indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 42.83 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 1.629 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24% [18][18][18] - Hisense Visual's market share in high-end televisions remains strong, with a 41.65% retail volume share in the 100-inch and above market [18][18][18] - The report maintains a profit forecast for Hisense Visual, expecting net profits of 2.5 billion yuan, 2.757 billion yuan, and 3.012 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [18][18][18] Group 5 - The report on Xinnengda (300207) highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 21.92 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 3.516 billion yuan by 2027 [26][26][26] - The report notes that the demand for energy storage batteries is expected to remain strong, with the company investing in a new lithium battery project in Thailand [26][26][26] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinnengda, projecting a steady improvement in profitability due to the scale effect in the energy storage sector [26][26][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 23.79 CNY, corresponding to a 14 times dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [4][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.31 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.16 billion CNY, down 3.7% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 2.7 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while the net profit was 450 million CNY, up 0.6% year-on-year. The company is expected to see marginal improvements driven by the old-for-new policy [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue growth was stable, with online sales of range hoods and gas stoves increasing by 8% year-on-year. The company is focusing on the old-for-new activities in retail channels, which are expected to yield positive results. However, the engineering channel revenue is anticipated to decline due to a decrease in residential construction area [2]. - The gross profit margin in Q3 increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a lower proportion of revenue from the engineering channel and cost reduction measures. The net profit margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year due to increased sales expenses, which rose by 2.0 percentage points [3]. - The operating cash flow in Q3 increased by 110 million CNY year-on-year, primarily due to revenue growth. Cash received from sales and services increased by 240 million CNY [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.39 billion CNY in 2025, with net profits of 1.58 billion CNY. The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.67 CNY, with a gradual increase to 1.77 CNY by 2027 [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has officially upgraded the "anti-involution" strategy to a national action, aiming to curb the excessive competition in the home appliance industry, which has been detrimental to both companies and consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The home appliance industry has been experiencing severe "involution," characterized by price wars and low-quality competition, which harms consumer interests [2][3]. - The price war has intensified, with many low-end appliances being sold at extremely low prices, leading to compromised product quality and reduced R&D investment [2][3]. - The industry is facing a vicious cycle of low price, low quality, and low innovation, which ultimately damages long-term consumer interests [2][3]. Group 2: Government and Association Initiatives - The Chinese Household Electrical Appliances Association has called for industry self-discipline and fair competition, urging companies to adhere to principles of mutual respect and high-quality development [1][2]. - The government has included the "anti-involution" initiative in its key tasks for the 2025 work report, indicating a commitment to addressing the issue at a national level [1]. Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The lack of innovation is identified as a key reason for the industry's predicament, with many companies avoiding investment in R&D and instead focusing on mature technology [4][5]. - To break the cycle of involution, companies need to focus on value creation and enhance their core competitiveness through technological innovation [4][5]. - The industry must address issues such as inconsistent standards and misleading marketing practices to improve consumer trust and product quality [5][6]. Group 4: Consumer Awareness and Market Potential - There is a significant gap in consumer awareness regarding the functions and benefits of home appliances, particularly in the water purification sector, which hinders market growth [8][9]. - Increasing consumer awareness and market penetration is crucial for breaking the cycle of involution and achieving long-term industry prosperity [8][9]. - A collaborative effort among government, industry associations, and companies is necessary to foster a fair competitive environment and promote high-quality development in the home appliance sector [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly for the white goods sector, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for key players like Midea, Haier, and Gree [4][8]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is benefiting from real estate policies and the "trade-in" program, leading to a sustained growth trend in domestic sales [6][14]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: white goods, export opportunities, and core components, with a focus on companies that are expected to outperform in these areas [8][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Sales Growth - From January to August 2025, the air conditioning industry produced 149.32 million units, a 6% year-on-year increase, with sales reaching 152.57 million units, up 7%, and domestic sales growing by 9% [6][14]. - The refrigerator and washing machine sectors also saw domestic sales growth of 4% and 6%, respectively, during the same period [6][14]. 2. White Goods and Components - The report notes that the average price of white goods is increasing due to the trade-in program, with air conditioning prices expected to rise further [27]. - Key companies are projected to show varied performance in Q3 2025, with Midea expected to see a 3% revenue increase and an 8% rise in profits, while Gree anticipates flat revenue and profit [28][29]. 3. Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is experiencing a recovery driven by real estate and trade-in policies, with significant growth in online sales for range hoods and gas stoves [6][14]. - Major players like Robam and Vatti are expected to see mixed results, with Robam projecting a 2% revenue increase but a 7% decline in profits [6][14]. 4. Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is benefiting from domestic trade-in policies, with companies like Supor and Joyoung expected to see revenue growth of 3% and a profit turnaround, respectively [6][14]. - The report highlights significant growth for companies like Stone Technology, which anticipates an 80% revenue increase [6][14]. 5. New Displays and Lighting - The emerging display sector is at a turning point, with companies like Hisense and Xiaomi expected to report revenue growth of 8% and 15%, respectively [6][14]. - The lighting industry is anticipated to see gradual improvements as market conditions stabilize [6][14]. 6. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the attractiveness of the white goods sector due to its low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth potential, recommending a combination of leading companies [8][17]. - Export opportunities are highlighted for companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang, which are expected to benefit from increased orders and stable profitability [8][17]. 7. Trade-in Policy Impact - The trade-in policy has been expanded to include 12 categories of appliances, significantly boosting sales and consumer interest [17][18]. - The report notes that the trade-in program has already led to over 62 million units sold in 2024, generating nearly 270 billion yuan in consumption [17][18].