家电行业周报（25 年第 34 周） 优于大市 7 月空调出货外冷内热，家电出口降幅环比收窄 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：7 月空调内销量在高温天气的带动下同比增长 14%，外销则有所下降。海关数据显示，7 月我国出口额降幅环比收窄至-3%， 主要家电品类表现有所好转。预计后续家电内外销有望逐步回归平稳增长。 7 月空调出货外冷内热，9 月淡季排产承压。产业在线数据显示，7 月我国空 调总销量 1643.7 万台，同比增长 1.6%。其中内销规模 1058.3 万台，同比增 长 14.3%；出口规模 585.4 万台，同比下降 15.5%。内销在 7 月高温天气的 带动下增长依然良好，但外销受海外高基数、库存及美国关税的影响，自 5 月以来出货持续承压。随着空调淡季的临近，8-9 月我国空调排产有所承压。 奥维云网数据显示，9 月空调排产量同比下降 11.9%，其中内销排产 508.2 万台，同比下滑 9.1%；出口排产 478.5 万台，同比下降 14.6%。后续随着大 促季的到来、海外关税预期明朗，我国空调内外销有望回归较为平稳的增长。 证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 7 月家电出口额降幅收窄，主要 ...

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | 投资要点： hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 政策和创新推动中国小家电市场发展，关注北交所相关标的 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第二十八期（20250824） 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 国补政策与技术创新共振，小家电行业或将迎来结构性机遇。中国小家电销售渠道 逐步向线上转移，线上平台成为驱动增长的核心引擎。根据奥维云网、头豹研究院 数据显示，小家电线上销售占比从 2020 年的 68%持续攀升至 2024 年的 79%，同 期厨房小家电线下零售额不断下滑，2024 年同比下降 9.1%。中国小家电市场规模 稳增，其中厨房小家电市场集中度较高。根据奥维云网、头豹研究院和炼丹炉大数 据信息，我国小家电市场规模保持增长，预计 2027 年市场规模达 5392 亿元。国家 消费品"以旧换新"政策在家电领域持续加 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 880 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.9% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 120 million yuan, also up by 18.5% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a revenue decline of 14.6% in Q2 2025, amounting to 350 million yuan, due to short-term tariff fluctuations [1] Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 34.4% in H1 2025, a decrease of approximately 1.7 percentage points, primarily due to the increased revenue share from lower-margin new products [2] - In Q2 2025, the gross margin improved by 5 percentage points to 38.3%, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin vacuum cleaners and the acquisition of the German company Producteers [2] - The net profit margin remained stable at 13.1% in H1 2025, consistent with the previous year, aided by effective cost control and foreign exchange gains [2] Business Expansion and Product Development - The company is expanding its product categories, with new products like snow throwers and inflators entering the growth phase, supporting overall company growth [1] - The company is enhancing its global footprint by consolidating its North American market while accelerating expansion into European and Latin American markets, expecting rapid revenue growth from non-American regions [1] - The company has established a significant presence in the Malaysian market, which helps mitigate tariff risks and offers a cost advantage over competitors in Vietnam and Thailand [2] Strategic Partnerships and Innovations - The company has deepened collaborations with leading North American retailers, solidifying its market share in core categories like air compressors and vacuum cleaners [3] - The acquisition of the German company Producteers has enabled the company to quickly penetrate the European professional and industrial vacuum cleaner market, gaining access to high-quality customer resources [3] - The company is focusing on the aging population market by developing intelligent nursing robots, which have entered a government-supported project list, indicating a strong order backlog and potential for future growth [3] Earnings Forecast - The company’s EPS is projected to be 1.29 yuan, 1.66 yuan, and 2.20 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "hold" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's revenue performance in 2025H1 was below expectations, with total revenue of 878 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 115 million yuan, also up 19% year-on-year. However, Q2 saw a decline in revenue and net profit due to tariff impacts and initial low shipment volumes from the Malaysian factory [7] - Inventory levels increased significantly by 90% year-on-year in 2025H1, attributed to the transition of production capacity to Malaysia and delays in shipments to the U.S. due to customs and tariff changes. The company’s subsidiary was selected for a government-supported project, which is expected to accelerate order releases [7] - The company is experiencing rapid order growth driven by major clients and successful expansion into new regions. The air compressor business benefits from increased orders from Home Depot, while the vacuum cleaner business has strengthened partnerships with major retailers in North America [7] - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 304 million, 388 million, and 444 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.9%, 27.7%, and 14.5%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 30, 24, and 21 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 2,294 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 304 million yuan, with a growth rate of 19.9% [3][9] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 35.4% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 18.9% [3][9] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.19 yuan in 2025, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [3][9] Market Data - As of August 15, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 35.95 yuan, with a market capitalization of 2,384 million yuan. The price-to-book ratio is 6.2, and the dividend yield is 3.25% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Chunguang Technology announced a significant investment plan to build an annual production project for 8 million clean electrical appliances, with a total investment not exceeding 1 billion yuan, amid declining net profits [1][2]. Investment Project - The project will be carried out by Chunguang Technology's wholly-owned subsidiary, Suzhou Shangteng Technology Manufacturing Co., Ltd., in Suzhou's Wuzhong District [1][2]. - The investment aims to alleviate production space constraints, reduce rental costs, expand operational scale, and optimize resource allocation to better meet market demand [2]. - The total investment for the project includes land transfer fees and will be financed through self-owned funds, bank loans, or other financing methods [2]. Financial Performance - Chunguang Technology's net profit has been declining, with projected net profits of approximately 25 million yuan in 2023 and 14.31 million yuan in 2024 [4]. - The revenue increase is attributed to successful customer development and increased orders for hoses, accessories, and OEM products, while net profit decline is due to a sluggish macroeconomic environment, intense market competition, and increased credit impairment losses [5]. Global Expansion - Despite the pressure on profitability, Chunguang Technology is actively pursuing global expansion, including increasing the investment scale of its clean electrical appliance production base in Vietnam from 185 million yuan to 320 million yuan [5]. - The company has also established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Malaysia for complete machine operations and formed a joint venture with a local company focused on the research, manufacturing, and sales of household appliances [5][6].

Group 1 - The stock price of Derma is reported at 11.35 yuan, down by 0.16 yuan, representing a decline of 1.39% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume reached 93,540 hands, with a total transaction amount of 106 million yuan [1] - Derma focuses on the research, production, and sales of home appliance products, primarily including vacuum cleaners and robotic vacuum cleaners [1] Group 2 - The products of the company are widely used in both household and commercial sectors [1] - On August 7, the net outflow of main funds was 6.196 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 31.0406 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the reliance on tools in American society, highlighting how tools like lawn mowers and leaf blowers have become essential for outdoor maintenance, similar to how dishwashers and vacuum cleaners are viewed in indoor settings [6][10][20] - It contrasts American and Chinese attitudes towards manual labor, noting that Americans tend to favor efficiency and time-saving tools, while Chinese culture often values hands-on labor as a sign of diligence [7][22][24] - The article points out a cultural shift in the U.S., where younger generations are increasingly reluctant to engage in manual labor, leading to a decline in skilled trades and a growing skills gap in the workforce [12][18][19] Group 2 - The article cites data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicating that there are approximately 414,000 job vacancies in the manufacturing sector as of May 2025, reflecting ongoing recruitment challenges [15] - It emphasizes that the perception of blue-collar jobs has changed, with traditional skilled trades being marginalized in favor of "clean" professions like technology and finance [13][18] - The discussion includes the notion that tools not only enhance efficiency but also shape societal values and attitudes towards work, with a focus on the importance of understanding and creatively using tools rather than merely relying on them [37][42][44]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the impact of tariffs on the **cleaning appliances** and **small home appliances** industries, particularly in relation to the U.S.-China trade tensions and the subsequent shifts in production capacity to Southeast Asia [1][2][4][30]. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Impact on Exports - Following the U.S. tariffs on vacuum cleaners, China's export share to the U.S. dropped from **40% to 25%**, with Vietnam becoming a significant alternative source, accounting for approximately **30%** of imports [1][3]. - The cleaning appliance sector experienced a slowdown in shipments in Q2 2025 due to increased tariffs, but companies began to ramp up production in Southeast Asia to mitigate costs [1][5]. Company Strategies - Companies like **Dechang**, **Lec** and **Fujia** have shifted production to Southeast Asia to meet U.S. demand, with Lec already covering its export needs through overseas capacity [4][29]. - Brands such as **Ecovacs** and **Roborock** have also moved some production to Southeast Asia to benefit from lower tariffs, reducing cost pressures [6][7]. Small Appliance Sector Dynamics - The small appliance sector is slower in capacity transfer compared to cleaning appliances, with coffee machines moving to Indonesia and Thailand, while air fryers are being produced in Mexico and Southeast Asia [9][10]. - Leading companies like **Xingbao** have leveraged their Southeast Asian production advantages to secure more orders, while those lacking overseas capacity face order losses [10][11]. Black Appliance Industry Resilience - The black appliance sector, represented by companies like **Hisense** and **TCL**, has shown resilience against tariffs due to global production strategies and technological upgrades [12][16]. - The U.S. market remains crucial, accounting for **17%** of global demand, and despite tariffs causing a **10%-15%** increase in retail prices, demand remains stable due to the essential nature of these products [12][13]. Future Trends - The tariff situation has catalyzed a shift towards diversified and decentralized production strategies in the home appliance industry, with companies increasingly establishing overseas capacities [30][32]. - Component suppliers are also adapting by following major clients abroad, enhancing their market presence and product offerings in new regions [32][33]. Additional Important Insights - The cleaning appliance industry is expected to recover from Q2 2025 impacts as production ramps up in Southeast Asia [8]. - The overall export scale of Chinese white goods remains robust despite a decline in the U.S. import share, driven by overseas capacity and growing demand in non-U.S. markets [26][28]. - The ongoing trade tensions have prompted a strategic shift among second-tier appliance manufacturers, who are capitalizing on favorable conditions in Southeast Asia to enhance their international revenue [33].

Group 1 - The relationship between Germany and Russia has deteriorated significantly, with German officials expressing strong military support for Ukraine and a hardline stance against Russia [1][2][3] - A significant portion of the German population perceives Russia as a threat, with about half of the voters agreeing with the government's assessment [7] - The economic impact of the conflict is evident, particularly in regions like Schwedt, where a refinery dependent on Russian oil faces severe challenges due to the cessation of imports [4][5] Group 2 - The German government is considering changes to foreign trade laws to prevent the acquisition of companies involved in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, reflecting a broader strategy to avoid reliance on Russian energy [3] - Despite the government's hardline approach, many in the German business community are advocating for a resumption of cooperation with Russia, highlighting the economic pressures faced by local industries [4][5] - The potential for Western companies to re-enter the Russian market post-conflict is being discussed, with experts noting the attractiveness of the Russian market for foreign businesses [11][13]

Core Insights - The article highlights the remarkable journey of Ni Zugen, the founder of Lek Electric, who built a nearly 10 billion yuan cleaning appliance giant from scratch with an initial loan of 30,000 USD [3][32] - Lek Electric has become an "invisible champion" in the vacuum cleaner industry, producing over 270 million small appliances, including more than 200 million vacuum cleaners by 2024 [5][32] Company Background - Ni Zugen was born in 1957 in a poor rural area of Jiangsu and started working in agriculture at a young age [5] - After serving in the military, he became an engineer at Chunhua Electric Appliance Factory, where he focused on improving motor quality [8][9] - In 1994, he founded Suzhou Jinlaike Electric Co., the predecessor of Lek Electric, with a focus on creating the best vacuum cleaners [9][20] Innovation and Growth - Lek Electric adopted an original design manufacturer model, emphasizing independent research and development rather than traditional OEM practices [9][20] - The company achieved significant milestones, including the production of the first domestic high-performance vacuum cleaner motor with a speed exceeding 30,000 RPM in 1997 [11][22] - By 2004, Lek Electric became the largest vacuum cleaner manufacturer globally, with an annual production of 8 million units [11][22] Diversification Strategy - To sustain growth amid a slowing market, Lek Electric pursued a diversification strategy, expanding into garden tools and kitchen appliances while leveraging its core motor technology [13][15][16] - The company launched its own brand "LEXY" in 2009, transitioning from an OEM to a brand-driven enterprise [19][20] - Lek Electric successfully entered the water purification market with innovative products, further broadening its business scope [22][26] International Expansion - In response to challenges such as the US-China trade war, Lek Electric began establishing overseas manufacturing facilities, starting with Vietnam [26][30] - The company faced initial setbacks during the construction of its Vietnamese factory but managed to complete it under tight deadlines, significantly increasing production capacity [30][32] - By 2024, Lek Electric's brand value exceeded 10 billion yuan, with revenues of 9.765 billion yuan and net profits of 1.23 billion yuan, exporting to over 100 countries [32][33]