Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities anticipates a mixed performance in the home appliance sector, with domestic sales under pressure due to policy changes and high base effects, while export sales are expected to perform better due to easing tariff impacts and recovering demand in developed and emerging markets [1] Group 1: Home Appliance Overview - The home appliance sector is experiencing internal performance differentiation, with overall operational resilience [1] - Cost factors include rising raw material prices since 2025, while shipping costs have been decreasing, keeping overall cost impacts manageable [1] - Domestic demand is supported by ongoing national subsidies, with retail sales of home appliances significantly outperforming the broader market [1] - Export growth has faced short-term disruptions from tariffs and high base effects, but leading companies are leveraging global layouts and contributions from emerging markets to maintain resilient export performance [1] - The average dividend yield for the home appliance sector is 3.2%, ranking fourth among 31 primary industries in China, highlighting the sector's attractive dividend characteristics [1] Group 2: White Goods - Domestic sales are expected to see a decline in growth rates in the second half of 2025 due to policy impacts and high base effects, with a forecast of a low-to-high growth pattern in 2026 [2] - If national subsidy policies continue in 2026, they may further enhance domestic demand and market structure [2] - Export sales are projected to improve in 2026, benefiting from lower base effects and easing tariff impacts, with leading companies expected to maintain competitive advantages and improve profitability [2] Group 3: Black Goods - The domestic TV market is undergoing structural optimization, with leading companies driving the adoption of RGB Mini LED products, which are expected to contribute to profit growth [3] - The overseas market, particularly in emerging regions, is expected to grow, with major events like the World Cup boosting demand for TVs [3] - Chinese brands are enhancing their marketing efforts and local channel structures to increase overseas market share and improve product mix [3] Group 4: Small Appliances - Domestic sales of small appliances are expected to be supported by national subsidy policies in early 2025, but demand may weaken as subsidies taper off [4] - The geopolitical situation poses risks to small appliance exports, but Chinese companies are well-positioned to manage tariff impacts due to their strong supply chain capabilities [4] Group 5: Robotic Vacuums - The demand for robotic vacuums remains strong, with the continuation of national subsidy policies in 2026 likely to enhance market penetration and improve profitability for brands [5] - Market share is expected to concentrate among leading brands, with a trend of increasing competition within the industry [5] - The overseas market for robotic vacuums is projected to maintain steady growth, although internal competition is intensifying [5]

基本面方面：1)成本：2025年以来原材料价格波动上行，海运费持续回落，成本影响整体可控。2)地 产：受益政策持续优化，后周期厨电板块估值及基本面弱复苏。3)内需：国补延续提振内需景气，家电 社零显著跑赢大盘。因基数走高及政策节奏影响，2025年家电内销增速前高后低。4)出口：关税短期扰 动经营节奏，叠加高基数影响，2025Q2以来家电出口增速阶段性回落。龙头依托全球化布局优势及新 兴市场贡献增量，外销表现韧性。红利资产属性：中等分红+估值偏低，家电板块股息率优势突出。家 电行业股息率均值为3.2%，在申万31个一级行业排名第4。基本面韧性+红利属性，2025年家电板块绝 对收益维稳但相对收益表现偏弱。展望2026年，基数压力下预计26H1内销承压，外销景气较优，优选 兼具出海与红利属性的家电龙头。 白电：龙头竞争壁垒稳固，加速出海获取增量 国内彩电市场维持结构优化趋势，国内龙头引领RGBMini LED产品普及有望贡献新的利润增量。海外 新兴市场持续增长，世界杯赛事有望提振海外彩电需求，中系厂商加强赛事营销力度，提升本地渠道结 构，加速提升海外出货份额及结构。成本端，液晶面板价格波动减弱，对下游电视整机影响 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 家电ETF（159996）跟踪的是家用电器指数（930697），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及空调、冰箱、洗 衣机等家电产品制造与销售的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映家用电器相关上市公司证券的整体表 现。该指数具有较强的消费属性和周期性特征，能够较为全面地体现中国家电行业的发展状况。 国金证券指出，10月份家电出口整体承压，出口数量与金额分别同比下降9.2%和13.3%。空调、冰箱、 电视出口量分别下降29.3%、5.5%和3.1%，而洗衣机出口量则同比增长7.7%。从区域来看，东南亚和非 洲的家电出口表现良好，而北美、中东和欧洲地区的出口则有所下降。此外，东南亚市场空调出口增长 13%，电视出口增长57%，非洲市场洗衣机出口增长21%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, particularly for leading brands that are expected to achieve stable growth due to their integrated advantages and strong pricing power [5]. Core Insights - In October, home appliance exports faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline in quantity and value of -9.2% and -13.3% respectively. However, emerging markets showed robust growth, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa [12][14]. - The report highlights that air conditioning exports in Southeast Asia led the growth, with a year-on-year increase of 13% in October [17]. - The overall market sentiment is slightly pressured for white goods and black goods, while kitchen and bathroom appliances are stabilizing at the bottom, and vacuum cleaners maintain high prosperity [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Home Appliance Export Performance - October saw a decline in air conditioner exports by 29.3%, while washing machine exports increased by 7.7%. The total export figures for refrigerators and televisions also showed declines of 5.5% and 3.1% respectively [12]. - Southeast Asia and Africa led the growth in exports, with Southeast Asia's cold appliance export value reaching approximately 6.7 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year [14]. - North America, the Middle East, and Europe experienced significant declines in export values, with North America down 23% and Europe down 8% [15]. 2. Market and Sector Tracking - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 3.77%, while the home appliance index decreased by 2.30% during the week [23]. - Key raw material prices showed a slight decline, with copper and aluminum prices down by 1.05% and 1.16% respectively in the week of November 17-21 [25]. - The USD to RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.09, with a weekly increase of 0.21% [30]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading companies such as Hisense, Midea Group, Haier, and TCL Electronics for their potential in both domestic and international markets, especially as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle which may boost demand for home appliances [5][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly focusing on the white goods sector and core components [3][4]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry experienced a revenue growth of 4.57% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 356.1 billion yuan. Net profit increased by 3.49% to 30.158 billion yuan [4][27]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) White goods benefiting from favorable real estate policies and trade-in incentives; 2) Export-driven companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. showing stable profitability; 3) Core components suppliers like Huaxiang Co. and Shun'an Environment leading in demand due to the white goods sector's unexpected growth [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with an 8.3% increase from July 1 to September 30, 2025, lagging behind the 17.9% rise of the CSI 300 index [14][19]. 2. Q3 2025 Home Appliance Industry Performance - Revenue growth of 4.57% year-on-year, with a total of 356.1 billion yuan in revenue. The net profit growth was 3.49%, totaling 30.158 billion yuan [4][27]. - The gross margin decreased by 0.68 percentage points to 25.38%, while the net margin slightly increased by 0.06 percentage points to 8.65% [30][36]. 3. Subsector Performance - **White Goods**: Revenue increased by 5.64% to 254.924 billion yuan, with net profit growth of 3.42% [48][49]. - **Kitchen Appliances**: Revenue decreased by 6.38% to 7.257 billion yuan, with a significant net profit decline of 18.66% [56][59]. - **Small Appliances**: Revenue grew by 11.36% to 36.739 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 2.13% [4][42]. - **Black Goods**: Revenue fell by 4.02% to 26.898 billion yuan, with net profit down by 28.12% [4][12]. - **Components**: Revenue rose by 6.85% to 30.238 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 29.07% [4][43]. 4. Key Investment Targets - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the white goods sector such as Hisense, Midea, Haier, and Gree, as well as component suppliers like Huaxiang and Shun'an Environment [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, highlighting its potential for stable growth and high dividend yields [4]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector has shown resilience, with the sector index rising 3.3% compared to a 3.2% increase in the CSI 300 index [3][5]. - Key companies such as Ecovacs and Haier are making significant strides, with Ecovacs reporting a 26% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [10][11]. - Strategic partnerships, such as Haier's collaboration with Cevital Group, are expected to enhance market presence in the Middle East and Africa [11][54]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, offline sales of major appliances faced challenges, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines experiencing significant declines in both retail volume and revenue [2][31][35]. - The average selling prices for these appliances also decreased, indicating a competitive market environment [31][37]. Company Dynamics - Ecovacs reported a revenue of 12.84 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 142% increase in net profit year-on-year [10][52]. - Haier's strategic partnership with Cevital aims to enhance local production capabilities and expand its product offerings in the African market [11][54]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: white goods, export-driven companies, and core components, recommending companies like Hisense, Midea, and Gree for their strong market positions [4]. - The report suggests that the white goods sector is undervalued and offers high safety margins and growth potential, especially with the implementation of trade-in policies [4]. Market Trends - The report notes that the home appliance market is experiencing a shift towards high-end products and service upgrades, driven by consumer demand for innovative solutions [59][60]. - The impact of government policies, such as the trade-in program, is expected to stimulate consumer spending and support the overall market growth [64][65].

Group 1 - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) has attracted a significant number of foreign buyers from Europe, the Middle East, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, indicating a positive outlook for appliance exports in Q4 and next year [1][4] - Lek Electric, a leading Chinese vacuum cleaner exporter, is expanding its product categories, focusing on overseas markets for water purifiers and coffee machines, aiming to break through growth bottlenecks [1][3] - China's white goods export value reached $90.015 billion from January to August 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.83%, and export volume increased by 7.91% to 6.337 billion units [2] Group 2 - Lek Electric has relocated most of its U.S. exports to production facilities in Vietnam and Thailand, enhancing its ability to cope with tariff changes, with an annual production capacity of 6 million units [3] - The company is diversifying its product offerings, showcasing a wider range of kitchen appliances at the Canton Fair, and is actively exploring new markets [3][4] - The overall competitiveness of Chinese home appliance products has improved, with prices now comparable to South Korean brands in Europe [4][5] Group 3 - Skyworth's white goods business has seen a 40% year-on-year increase in both export volume and value, with expectations of a 50% growth next year due to targeted product development for local markets [5] - The company plans to establish production bases for large white goods in Southeast Asia, aiming to reduce the current production cost gap with China from 10-15% to 8-10% [5] - Gree Electric's overseas sales revenue increased by 10.41% year-on-year, although the company anticipates a period of adjustment in the export market due to inventory digestion [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the home appliance industry, indicating a neutral stance across various sub-sectors [4]. Core Insights - The overall export value of the home appliance industry continued to decline in single digits, with a decrease of 7% in August 2025 [5][9]. - Among sub-sectors, cleaning appliances showed relatively better performance, while other categories faced varying degrees of growth and decline [6][9]. - Specific product categories such as washing machines and vacuum cleaners experienced double-digit growth, while air conditioners and fans faced significant demand pressure [7][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Industry Performance - The home appliance industry saw a 7% decline in export value as of August 2025, continuing a trend of single-digit decreases [5][9]. Sub-sector Analysis - **White Goods**: Washing machines saw a double-digit increase in export value (+10%), while refrigerators experienced a slight growth (+4%). However, air conditioners and fans faced substantial declines (-24% and -19% respectively) [7][9]. - **Black Goods and Smart Projection**: Audio equipment showed a modest growth (+2%), while liquid crystal TVs, microphones, and projectors faced declines (-3%, -10%, and -21% respectively) [7][9]. - **Kitchen Appliances and Electrical Lighting**: Plugs and sockets remained stable (-2%), but range hoods saw a significant drop (-19%) [7][9]. - **Cleaning Appliances**: Vacuum cleaners continued to show strong performance with a double-digit growth (+10%) [7][9]. - **Small Kitchen Appliances**: Major categories like microwaves, electric cooking utensils, and blenders experienced declines in export value (-11% to -26%) [7][9]. - **Personal Care Appliances**: Hair dryers faced a double-digit decline (-13%), while electric irons and shavers saw a narrowing of their decline (-13% and -2% respectively) [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - Whirlpool reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong overseas demand and strategic market positioning [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 2.191 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.10% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 216 million yuan, up 593.65% compared to the previous year [1] - Overseas sales accounted for 2.113 billion yuan, making up 96% of total revenue, with a growth of 37.66% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The domestic home appliance market in the first half of 2025 showed characteristics of "policy-driven and category differentiation" [1] - The retail volume of the white goods market reached 85.53 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, while retail sales amounted to 254.9 billion yuan, up 9.4% [1] Group 3: Product Development - In the washing machine sector, the company launched a new slant drum washing machine in Japan, addressing user pain points with multiple integrated features [2] - The company introduced a new French series refrigerator to the U.S. market, featuring high capacity and energy efficiency, which aligns with North American consumer demands [2] - The company has made significant advancements in the kitchen appliance segment, with new products meeting European energy efficiency standards and expanding into various international markets [2] Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The company improved production efficiency through lean management and continuous innovation, leading to increased output and reduced costs [3] - Sales expenses decreased by 43.23% and management expenses fell by 30.74% in the first half of 2025, contributing to a significant expansion of profit margins [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690) and recommends "Increase" for Hisense Visual (600060) [4][20] Core Viewpoints - Despite underwhelming June export data for home appliances, actual exports are expected to meet forecasts when considering capacity transfer and high base disturbances. The report highlights numerous structural bright spots in home appliance exports, such as the potential increase in air conditioning penetration in Europe due to high temperatures, strong demand for refrigerators and washing machines in Africa and Latin America, and the growing global market for vacuum cleaners and robotic vacuums. The report anticipates continued growth in large-screen TVs and Mini LED penetration, with expectations for long-term benefits from sports events [4][20] Summary by Sections Export Performance - June home appliance export data was not impressive, but actual exports are projected to align with expectations when accounting for capacity transfer and high base effects. The report notes that high temperatures may drive increased air conditioning adoption in Europe, and there is strong growth potential for refrigerators and washing machines in Africa and Latin America, with exports of these categories to Africa increasing by 49% and 27% respectively in the first half of the year [4][20] Vacuum Cleaners - The global vacuum cleaner market is experiencing growth across multiple regions, with exports to the U.S. expected to be supported by capacity transfers. The report indicates that vacuum cleaner exports, including robotic vacuums, have shown sustained growth in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe. The report also highlights that the structure of robotic vacuum cleaners is expected to continue improving [4][20] Television Market - The report emphasizes the importance of structural improvements in the television market, noting that TCL Electronics saw an 8.7% year-on-year increase in overseas TV shipments in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in larger screen sizes. The trend towards larger screens and Mini LED TVs is expected to continue, with TCL's overseas Mini LED TV shipments showing promising growth [4][20]