Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Board member Waller advocates for a rate cut in December, citing concerns over the labor market and expected inflation decline [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - Waller emphasizes the need for a rate cut in December due to potential continued slowdown in job growth, stating that all data supports this action [2]. - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive month to address the evident labor market slowdown [2]. - Fed Chair Powell cautioned that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed, indicating uncertainty in future monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Concerns - Waller downplays the inflation risks associated with Trump's tariffs, suggesting that excluding temporary tariff impacts, inflation measured by the PCE index is around 2.5% and expected to decline further [4]. - He believes that tariffs will only cause a one-time price spike and that the Fed should prioritize employment risks over inflation concerns [4]. Group 3: Waller's Position and Future Prospects - Waller, nominated by Trump in 2020, is one of the candidates being considered for the Fed Chair position after Powell's term ends in May next year [4]. - He has been an early advocate for rate cuts compared to many of his colleagues and previously opposed the decision to maintain rates in July [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should continue to lower interest rates in December due to ongoing risks in the labor market, as stated by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Waller emphasized that the current primary concern is the labor market, and he advocates for a rate cut in December based on data indicating the need for such action [1] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points for the second consecutive month to address a significant slowdown in the labor market during the summer [1] - Waller's comments come amid opposition from other Federal Reserve officials regarding the recent rate cut, citing persistent inflation risks [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Waller downplayed the inflation risks associated with President Trump's tariff policies, suggesting that if temporary tariff impacts are excluded, the inflation rate measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is approximately 2.5% [1] - He noted that while the inflation rate is not at the target of 2%, it is not significantly above it, and a decline is expected [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership - Waller has been an early advocate for rate cuts compared to most of his colleagues, arguing that tariffs only cause one-time price increases and that employment risks should take precedence [2] - He expressed willingness to accept the role of Federal Reserve Chair if asked by the President, indicating his potential candidacy for the position [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin mentioned that he is conducting a "second round" of interviews for candidates to succeed Powell, with Waller being one of the candidates [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the interest rate cut in September has alleviated employment risks [1] Group 1 - The September interest rate cut has had a positive impact on employment risk [1]

Economic Outlook - The labor market is gradually cooling, and inflation remains elevated, prompting the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point [2] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth at 1.6% in the first half of the year, down from 2.4% the previous year [3] - Growth in economic activity may be firmer than expected, driven by stronger consumer spending, although business investment continues to expand and the housing sector remains weak [4] Labor Market - The unemployment rate has remained low, but job gains have significantly slowed, reflecting a decline in labor force growth due to lower immigration and participation [5][6] - Layoffs and hiring remain low, with perceptions of job availability and hiring difficulty declining, indicating a softer labor market [6] Inflation Trends - Inflation has eased from mid-2022 highs but remains elevated, with total PCE prices rising 2.8% over the past year, including core PCE prices [7] - Disinflation is continuing for services, while inflation expectations have increased due to tariffs, although long-term expectations align with the 2% inflation goal [8] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions are focused on promoting maximum employment and stable prices, with the target range for the federal funds rate lowered to 3.75% to 4% [9] - The impact of higher tariffs is contributing to increased prices in certain goods, leading to higher overall inflation [9] - There is a reasonable expectation that inflationary effects may be short-lived, but there is a risk that they could become persistent, which needs to be managed [10]

Jerome Powel Bitcoin. Photo by BeInCrypto The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, marking its second rate cut this year. The central bank said economic growth remains moderate while job gains have slowed and unemployment has edged up. Inflation, however, remains “somewhat elevated,” keeping the Fed cautious about further policy easing. Fed Balances Inflation and Labor Market Risks The decision also confirmed that the Fed will end quantitativ ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing to lower interest rates again this month due to a weakening job market overshadowing inflation concerns, but this balance may not last long [1] - Economic data is mixed, showing resilient growth and consumer spending, while hiring has slowed down, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [1] - Fed Chair Powell emphasizes the risks of delaying action, indicating a likely 25 basis point rate cut in October, with futures markets anticipating another cut in December [2][5] Group 2 - The internal debate within the Fed is intensifying, with some officials warning about persistent inflation and the potential for strong economic growth to complicate future rate cuts [2][3] - The balance of risks between employment and inflation will shape the Fed's policy discussions leading into 2026, with potential changes in leadership and voting members adding uncertainty [4] - The ultimate extent of rate cuts may be less than what the market is currently pricing in, as the economy shows signs of overheating [5]

【导读】 美联储会议纪要显示，即使官员降息，仍对通胀保持谨慎 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下美联储的重磅消息。 10月9日凌晨， 美联储公布9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。美联储官员们在9月政策会议上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿， 但同时也因通胀风险而保持谨慎。 自9月会议以来，包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和米歇尔·鲍曼在内的美联储理事都提到，劳动力市场的强劲是需要降息的理由。米兰则 认为，中性利率低于普遍认知，这意味着美联储需要更快降息。特朗普及多名政府官员也引用近期数据，越来越多地呼吁美联储立即降 息。 联邦基金利率期货显示，投资者预计10月和12月大概率会降息。 纪要写道："几乎所有接受纽约联储交易台调查的受访者都预计本次会议将把联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，约半数受访者预计10 月会议还将进一步降息。绝大多数受访者预计到年底至少会有两次25个基点的降息，约半数预计会有三次。" | 重点内容如下。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 美联储官员在上月的政策会议上表示，今年内有意进一步降息，但出于对通胀的担忧，许多人仍保持谨慎态度。 | | | | 根据联邦公 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储杰斐逊：支持降息以平衡通胀和就业风险。 ...

Group 1: Labor Statistics and Government Shutdown - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend all operations during a government shutdown, including data collection and publication [4][5] - The Labor Department's emergency plan indicates that economic data scheduled for release during the funding interruption will not be published, and any technical issues will not be addressed on the website [4] Group 2: Political Developments - Vice President Vance stated that the U.S. is heading towards a government shutdown due to significant disagreements between Democrats and Republicans regarding funding agreements [7] - The meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders highlighted the increasing likelihood of a government shutdown within two days [7] Group 3: Swiss Investment in U.S. Gold Refining - Switzerland is reportedly planning to invest in the U.S. gold refining industry in an attempt to persuade the Trump administration to lower the recently imposed 39% import tariff [9][10] - This tariff is the highest among developed countries and has negatively impacted Swiss exports to the U.S. and suppressed growth expectations [10] Group 4: AI Developments - Anthropic announced the launch of its latest AI model, Claude Sonnet 4.5, which is designed to be more capable in programming and practical business applications [9][11] - The model has been recognized as the "best programming model globally" based on industry benchmark tests [11] Group 5: Federal Reserve Insights - New York Fed President Williams indicated that inflation risks have decreased while employment risks have increased, suggesting a potential slight reduction in interest rates [13] - Fed Governor Milan's argument for significant rate cuts has not gained support on Wall Street, with skepticism regarding the rationale behind his claims [15]

Macro News - The U.S. has initiated a Section 232 investigation into imports of medical devices, robots, and industrial machinery, potentially leading to tariff actions against these industries [1] - The U.S. has officially reduced tariffs on EU automobiles to 15% [1] - A Chinese central bank advisor has called for fiscal support for the real estate sector, and China has announced measures to promote service exports [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that inflation risks are skewed to the upside while employment risks are skewed to the downside, describing the current situation as challenging [1] - Powell stated that there are no significant financial stability risks at present [1] - Fed Vice Chair Bowman suggested that the Fed may act slowly in supporting the job market, but may need to accelerate rate cuts if demand weakens and layoffs begin [1] - President Trump condemned Western nations' recognition of Palestine during a speech at the United Nations, highlighting the U.S.'s isolation in its support for Israel [1] - S&P Global's survey revealed that the U.S. September composite PMI fell from 54.6 to 53.6, with manufacturing PMI dropping from 53.0 to 52.0, and service PMI slightly declining from 54.5 to 53.9, indicating a slowdown in business activity for the second consecutive month [1] Institutional Perspectives - Recent inflation risks in the U.S. are skewed to the upside while employment risks are skewed to the downside, despite the Fed Chair emphasizing the weakening job market [2] - There is a divergence of opinions within the Fed regarding inflation concerns, with some officials believing that despite Trump's tariff measures not raising prices as expected, inflation risks remain [2] - The Fed's hesitance has caused short-term volatility in precious metals, but no clear trend reversal is evident [2] - Economic data indicates a slowdown in U.S. business activity for two consecutive months, with the OECD slightly upgrading its U.S. economic forecast but still expecting significant growth deceleration compared to last year [2] - Market expectations suggest that the U.S. will implement significant rate cuts within the year, providing some support for precious metals, which may require consolidation after recent gains [2]