Inflation Data - In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%) [7] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with July's figures [7] - Energy inflation rose by 1.8 percentage points to 0.7% month-on-month, while food inflation increased by 0.4 percentage points to 0.5% [9] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI month-on-month growth increased from 0.2% to 0.3%, primarily driven by a rebound in used car prices, which rose from 0.5% to 1.0% [11] - Core services inflation remained stable, with rent inflation contributing significantly, although its sustainability is questioned [18] - The overall core services inflation maintained at 0.4% month-on-month [21] Employment and Market Sentiment - The initial jobless claims rose from 237,000 to 263,000, exceeding market expectations and marking the highest level since June 2023 [22] - Concerns over the labor market's deterioration are overshadowing inflation concerns, leading to a focus on employment risks [22] - The market continues to favor "rate cut trades," with a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, October, and December [24]

Inflation Trends - The August CPI showed a significant rebound, with a month-on-month increase from 0.2% in July to 0.38% in August, slightly above the market expectation of 0.33%[5] - Year-on-year CPI growth rose from 2.7% to 2.9%, indicating a return to an upward trend[5] - Core CPI month-on-month growth increased from 0.32% to 0.35%, also exceeding market expectations of 0.31%[5] Employment Concerns - The number of first-time unemployment claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 235,000[6] - The projected increase in employment from April 2024 to March 2025 was revised down by 91,100, with average monthly job growth adjusted from 136,000 to 60,000[6] - The risk of employment deterioration is now seen as greater than the risk of uncontrolled inflation, leading to an 81% probability of three rate cuts this year[1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice, in September and December, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, with the year-end target for the federal funds rate set at 3.75%-4%[1] - Further rate cuts are anticipated next year, potentially bringing the year-end target down to 3.25%-3.5% as economic growth stabilizes and inflation recedes[1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the CPI growth in August has rebounded due to food and energy, but the slow transmission of tariffs and stable service inflation suggest that inflation will not hinder the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] - The August CPI in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9% (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%) [1] - Core CPI remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 2 - Core goods saw a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.3%, primarily driven by a rebound in used car prices (from 0.5% to 1.0%) [1] - The transmission of tariffs remains slow, with core goods excluding used cars maintaining a month-on-month growth rate of 0.17%, unchanged from July [1][2] - Service inflation remained stable, with rental inflation being the main contributor, although its sustainability is questionable [2] Group 3 - Short-term focus is expected to remain on employment risks rather than inflation, as the slow transmission of tariffs and stable service inflation indicate that inflation will not be a constraint for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [2] - The labor market's ongoing weakness has not disrupted the consensus on a soft landing, with the market currently favoring rate cut trades rather than recession trades [2] - Concerns about the U.S. inflation pressure persisting after rate cuts need to be monitored, despite the current demand-side weakness slowing tariff transmission [2]

Inflation Overview - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%) [9] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with July's figures [9] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, primarily driven by a rebound in used car prices, which increased from 0.5% to 1.0% [13] - Core services inflation remained stable, with rent inflation contributing significantly, while other service categories like medical and leisure services saw a decline [16] Employment Market Concerns - Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, marking the highest level since June 2023 [20] - The labor market's ongoing weakness is expected to keep market focus on employment risks rather than inflation [20] Market Expectations - The market continues to favor "rate cut trades," with a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, and expectations for cuts in October and December as well [22] - Despite the anticipated rate cuts, there are concerns about persistent inflation pressures post-cut, particularly if demand stabilizes [22] Risk Factors - There are renewed concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for continued unexpected slowdowns in the U.S. labor market [23]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's third-in-command, Williams, suggests that it is appropriate to lower interest rates over time, emphasizing the need to ensure tariffs do not lead to widespread inflation and warning that maintaining overly restrictive policies for too long could pose risks to employment [1] Group 1 - Williams indicates that a gradual reduction in interest rates is suitable as time progresses [1] - There is a necessity to ensure that tariffs do not result in broad inflationary pressures [1] - Prolonged maintenance of excessively restrictive monetary policies may jeopardize employment levels [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole conference, indicating an openness to interest rate cuts, which led to a significant market reaction with the Dow Jones rising by 2% to a new historical high [1] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with new job additions averaging only 35,000 per month over the past three months, significantly below the expected 168,000 for 2024 [1] - Powell highlighted that inflation risks are currently tilted upwards while employment risks are leaning downwards, suggesting a cautious approach to policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, primarily as a preventive measure against future economic uncertainties, with a total of up to two rate cuts anticipated within the year [4] - The stock market typically benefits from rate cuts due to improved liquidity and lower financing costs, which can enhance risk appetite [2][4] - The technology sector remains resilient and independent of traditional economic cycles, contributing to the recent highs in the stock market [5] Group 3 - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to address weaknesses in traditional demand, particularly in manufacturing and real estate, which have been adversely affected by high financing costs [6] - Market reactions to rate cuts often lead to upward adjustments in stock indices, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching around 6,400 to 6,700 points [4][6] - The long-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may not necessarily decline significantly following rate cuts, as historical patterns suggest a rebound in yields and dollar strength post-cut [7]

Core Points - The balance of risks has shifted, with increased pressure on employment compared to previous concerns about inflation [1][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is viewed as a one-time effect, with limited long-term risks [3][8] - The adjustment of the Federal Reserve's policy framework allows for more flexible operations [3][8] - The possibility of a rate cut in September is open, contingent on upcoming data trends [5][8] Summary by Categories Employment and Inflation - The current labor market appears balanced but is not healthy, as both labor supply and demand are slowing down [1][3] - If employment data continues to weaken, the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts without significant concerns about inflation [5][7] Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to cause a temporary price increase, but this will not lead to a sustained high inflation trend [3][5] - The price effects of tariffs are becoming visible, but the key question remains whether these increases will lead to persistent inflation [5][8] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has removed specific language from its policy framework, allowing for more straightforward communication and decision-making [3][8] - The cautious but dovish tone of Powell's speech indicates that if the job market continues to weaken, the likelihood of a rate cut increases [7][8]

Employment and Economic Outlook - Powell's speech indicates rising downside risks in the labor market, suggesting a potential need for interest rate cuts[2] - July non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, significantly below the expected 115,000, with prior values revised down by 258,000[4] - The current labor market is described as a "peculiar balance," where both supply and demand have slowed, leading to increased unemployment risks[4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Powell shifts to a "short-term shock" view on inflation, deeming tariff impacts as one-time increases rather than persistent inflation drivers[5] - The Federal Reserve's new policy framework removes previous commitments to an average inflation target of 2% and the quantitative assessment of full employment[6] - This framework adjustment allows the Fed to prioritize employment over inflation when conflicts arise, facilitating potential rate cuts[6] Market Reactions and Future Projections - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from approximately 75% to 91.3%[6] - The dollar index fell by 0.78% to 97.88, while the two-year Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 3.69%, and the S&P 500 index increased by 1.6%[8] - If the core PCE price index drops below 2.8% in October, further rate cuts may occur in November and December, totaling 50-75 basis points for the year[8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that despite ongoing inflation risks, gold prices surged significantly following Powell's dovish remarks, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve before September [1] - Upcoming key data releases include durable goods orders, GDP, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is favored by the Federal Reserve [1] - Powell indicated that stable unemployment and labor market indicators allow for cautious policy adjustments, despite the current restrictive policy stance [1] Group 2 - Analyst Felix noted that while gold prices rose, they have not yet surpassed the $3,400 per ounce mark, with geopolitical risks easing after optimistic news regarding Russia and Ukraine [1] - If gold prices rise above $3,400, the next resistance levels would be the June 16 high of $3,452 and the historical high of $3,500 [1] - Analyst Chad suggested that if gold prices retract, they may find support at the 50-day simple moving average around $3,350 per ounce, with further targets at the 20-day moving average of $3,345 and the 100-day moving average of $3,309 [2] Group 3 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias with resistance at $3,367 and support at $3,357, indicating strong momentum [3] - The daily chart for the euro against the dollar (EURUSD) also reflects a bullish direction, with resistance at 1.1678 and support at 1.1678 [4] - Key indicators to watch today include the German IFO Business Climate Index, U.S. new home sales, and the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index [4]

美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，认为当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风 险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要降息。 鲍威尔在演讲开头就指出："风险平衡似乎正在发生变化。" 然后他说： "失业率和其他劳动力市场指标的稳定使我们能谨慎考虑政策立场的调整。然而，由于政策 处于限制性区间，基准前景和不断变化的风险平衡可能需要我们调整政策立场。" 评论认为，鲍威尔提到，失业率等劳动力市场指标稳定让美联储能谨慎考虑调整货币政策立场，这为9 月降息敞开了大门。 他说： 在堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办的经济研讨会"转型中的劳动力市场：人口结构、生产力与宏观经济政 策"上的讲话，怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔 今年以来，美国经济在经济政策剧烈变动的背景下展现出了韧性。就美联储双重使命的目标而言，劳动 力市场依然接近最大就业水平，通胀虽仍有些偏高，但较疫情后高点已大幅下降。与此同时，风险平衡 似乎正在发生转变。 在我今天的讲话中，我将首先谈论当前的经济形势和货币政策的短期前景，随后转向我们第二次对货币 政策框架进行公开审查的结果，这些内容已经在我们今天发布的《长期目标和货币政策战略声明修订 版》中有所体现。 当前经济状况 ...