Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, domestic urea demand remains limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not yet starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The domestic - international price difference is large, and the new quota issuance increases the impact of the international market on the domestic one. Urea is expected to be mainly range - bound. In the medium term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and urea is expected to be weak [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures oscillated and declined, closing at 1630 (-7/-0.43%) [3] - Spot market: The ex - factory price was stable with a downward trend, and the trading volume was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 25, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.11 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.10 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.17%, a decrease of 0.94% compared to 84.11% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory price was stable with a downward trend, market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, raw material inventory was abundant, finished product inventory was high, grass - roots orders were scarce, and the ex - factory price was expected to be stable with a downward trend. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, the ex - factory price followed the increase, and it was expected to operate weakly. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory price was firm, the demand in the Northeast increased, and the ex - factory price was expected to be temporarily stable. Overall, the supply was loose, the demand was declining, and the inventory was high [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high levels, do not chase short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is entering the traditional storage season in Q4 2025, with improved market sentiment supported by concentrated storage demand, steady export activities, and a rebound in the compound fertilizer industry, leading to a gradual decrease in urea inventories [1] Group 1: Production Dynamics - Urea production capacity utilization remains at 83.91%, slightly down by 0.17 percentage points month-on-month but up by 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Daily production stabilizes at a high level of 202,900 tons, ensuring overall supply remains sufficient [2] - Localized supply disruptions due to maintenance and upgrades at certain companies are offset by the resumption of production at others, maintaining regional supply stability [2] Group 2: Demand Release - Urea's absolute valuation is currently in a relatively reasonable range, with storage and fertilizer demand gradually being released, providing price support [3] - Storage progress in various regions is ahead of previous years, with significant completion rates reported in areas like Shandong and Guangxi [3] Group 3: Compound Fertilizer Industry - The compound fertilizer industry's operating rate has increased, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating improved production and sales rates [4] - The utilization rate for compound fertilizer production is at 34.61%, up by 4.29 percentage points month-on-month [4] Group 4: Export Activities - Exports have played a crucial role in balancing the urea supply-demand equation, with cumulative exports exceeding 4 million tons by October 2025 [5] - October's export volume reached approximately 1.2 million tons, significantly surpassing market expectations [5] - The latest pricing data indicates a favorable market outlook, with port inventories rising and domestic urea inventories decreasing by 46,400 tons week-on-week [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Multiple favorable factors, including storage demand, export activities, and a rebound in compound fertilizer production, are supporting market sentiment [5] - The high daily production levels may exert some pressure on market prices, with regional price differentiation expected [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to oscillate within the valuation range. The domestic fundamental pressure is relatively high, but the downward driving force is mitigated by policy regulation. In November, with mid - stream replenishment and the fourth batch of export quotas driving speculation, spot trading has continuously improved, and upstream enterprises are expected to be in a stage of slight destocking [2]. - The 01 contract of urea has a strong fundamental pressure level at 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is expected to be at 1,550 - 1,560 yuan/ton. In terms of trading strategies, for single - side trading, it is expected to oscillate with short - term support and medium - term correction; for inter - period trading, it is recommended to go short on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high and go long on the 5 - 9 spread when it is low; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical data of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Jin Kai, Bo Da, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices of urea [5][9][15][19]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continues in 2025. The total new capacity in 2024 was 392 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to reach 716 tons, with multiple new capacity projects put into operation or planned to be put into operation [23]. - **Production Plan**: A list of urea production enterprise maintenance plans is provided, including information such as enterprise name, annual capacity, raw materials, shutdown and restart dates, and lost production [25]. - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high. Charts show the daily output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea in China [26][27]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices are stable, and the factory cash - flow cost line has increased. Cost calculations for Shanxi's fixed - bed factories and historical data on the full cost of urea's airflow bed, fixed - bed, and natural gas are presented [29][30][31]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state, and charts show the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different production methods [34][35][37]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. A table shows the monthly net import (export) data of urea from 2018 - 2025 (E) [40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics and is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn. Charts show the production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers [46][49][53]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry has its own fundamentals, including capacity utilization rate, production cost, inventory, and production profit [55][53][54]. - **Melamine**: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine are presented in charts [56][57][58]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand support from the real estate industry for panels is limited, but panel exports are resilient, with data on the export volume of plywood, OSB, and real estate construction and completion areas provided [59][60]. 3.4 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025 (week 47), the sample port inventory of Chinese urea was 100,000 tons, a 21.95% increase from the previous week. Most ports have low inventory levels, and the overall port inventory fluctuates slightly [64]. - **Factory Inventory**: On November 19, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a 3.13% decrease from the previous week. The inventory changes in different provinces vary, and the overall enterprise inventory has decreased [65]. 3.5 International Urea - Multiple charts show the historical data of international urea prices, including FOB prices of Chinese, Baltic, and Middle - East large - granular urea and CFR prices of Brazilian large - granular urea [69][70][72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that downstream buyers restocked at low prices, leading to a narrow rebound in spot prices. This week's view is that downstream buyers resist high prices, causing the ex - factory price to operate weakly. With the continuous increase in ex - factory prices since the weekend, market sentiment has cooled, and the spot ex - factory quotes of urea in mainstream areas are weakly stable with sluggish transactions. In the short term, domestic demand is still limited, the agricultural demand has ended, and the compound fertilizer industry has not started on a large scale, so the spot market sentiment remains sluggish. In the medium term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades and the autumn fertilizer season in China ends, overall demand is weak, and the urea market is expected to operate weakly. However, currently, some downstream buyers are restocking at low prices, and the Northeast region has increased purchases, so in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview - The ex - factory prices in Shandong are weakly stable, with a decline in the operating rate of industrial compound fertilizers, sufficient raw material inventory, high finished - product inventory, few grass - roots orders, and mainly rigid - demand replenishment. In Henan, the market sentiment is weak, the ex - factory prices follow the increase, and the order - receiving volume decreases. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices are firm, but the market atmosphere is average. Overall, the daily output has increased to around 20.4 million tons as maintenance devices return one after another. The fourth batch of quotas has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the inventory of urea can be used for more than half a month, resulting in low procurement sentiment for raw materials. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, remaining at a high level. [4] 2. Core Data Changes Supply - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 87.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21%. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate of urea was 84.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. [5] Demand - In the 47th week of 2025 (20251114 - 1120), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.20%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 34.61%, a week - on - week increase of 4.29 percentage points. As of November 21, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,260 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.08%. This week (20251114 - 20251121), the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 250,000 tons, an increase of 144,000 tons from last week. As of November 19, 2025, the pre - order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days, a decrease of 0.59 days from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 7.65%. [5] Inventory - On November 19, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons from last week. The sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 100,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from last week. [5] Valuation - In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal declined slightly, the spot price of urea rebounded, the fixed - bed production had a loss of 90 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production had a loss of 50 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production had a profit of 190 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 75 yuan/ton. [5]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is an energy and chemical R & D report on urea, dated November 21, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated and declined, closing at 1654 (-0.7/-0.42%) [3] - Spot market: Factory prices increased slightly, with trading volume being average. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On November 21, the daily production of the urea industry was 20.15 tons, 0.1 tons less than the previous working day and 1.34 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.33%, 0.1% higher than 83.23% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Short - term: Domestic demand is limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The price difference between domestic and international markets is large, and the new quota issuance increases the impact of the international market on the domestic market. The mainstream delivery area factory price is around 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance has decreased. Some compound fertilizer plants are restocking at low prices, and storage enterprises are purchasing. The urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] - Medium - term: The impact of the fourth batch of export quotas will fade, domestic autumn fertilizer production will end completely, and overall demand will be weak. As the factory price rises, downstream acceptance will decrease. Recently, commodities have collectively corrected, and the urea fundamentals are still loose. In the medium term, the urea market is expected to be weak [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although domestic demand is limited, new export quotas have been issued, increasing the influence of the international market on the domestic market. Some downstream enterprises are replenishing at low prices, and the receipt situation of urea enterprises has improved significantly. - In the medium term, urea is expected to be weak. The influence of the fourth - batch export quota will fade, overall demand will be weak, downstream acceptance will decrease as the ex - factory price rises, and the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1665 (0/0%). - Spot market: The ex - factory price increased slightly, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1540 - 1560 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based urea in China decreased. The coal - based urea capacity utilization rate was 87.23%, a 0.30% decrease from the previous week, and the gas - based urea capacity utilization rate was 72.55%, a 0.21% decrease from the previous week. This was due to the shutdown of 3 coal - based enterprises' devices and the resumption of 1 coal - based enterprise's shutdown device [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: Maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the daily output has increased to around 20.4 tons. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, but it is still at a high level. - Demand: The fourth - batch export quota has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grassroots procurement is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. - Price trend: In Shandong, the ex - factory price is expected to decline; in Henan, it is expected to follow the decline; in the delivery area and its surrounding areas, it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overall, in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, and in the medium term, it is expected to be weak [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Urea Daily Report, November 17, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Research Object: Urea Market Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1662 (+13/+0.79%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were weakly stable with decent transactions. Prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1530 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1540 - 1500 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1480 - 1520 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1450 - 1490 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On November 17, the daily output was 204,400 tons, an increase of 1100 tons from the previous working day and 22,400 tons from the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate on that day was 84.53%, a 4.00% increase from 80.53% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: The impact of the new export quota news faded, market sentiment cooled, and the spot factory prices of urea in mainstream regions declined [5] - Regional Analysis: In Shandong, the mainstream factory price led the increase before, now the market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, and it was expected that the factory price would decline. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, the factory price followed the increase before and was expected to follow the decline. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, the factory price followed the increase, and it was expected to remain stable. The Northeast demand was stable [5] - Supply and Demand: The maintenance devices returned one after another, and the daily output increased to around 204,000 tons. The fourth batch of quotas was issued, and the international price's influence on the domestic market increased again. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China basically ended, the grass - roots stocking was coming to an end, the compound fertilizer factory operating rate declined, and the demand showed a downward trend [5] - Inventory: Urea production enterprise inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to around 1.5 million tons, still at a high level [5] - Outlook: In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited, the agricultural demand ended, the compound fertilizer had not started on a large scale, and the spot market sentiment was still low. The fourth - batch export quota was expected to be around 600,000 tons, which would boost the domestic market sentiment in the short term. The urea fundamentals were still loose, and it was expected to continue the downward trend [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short selling [6] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [6] Group 6: Related Charts - Charts include urea daily output, operating rate, coal - based and gas - based operating rates and outputs, enterprise and port inventories, compound fertilizer operating rate and factory inventory, melamine operating rate, and Northeast arrival volume from 2022 to 2025 [11][15]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on November 14, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Report Focus: Urea Market in the Commodity Sector [1][2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1652 (0/0%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were weakly stable with general trading. Prices varied by region, e.g., Henan at 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized at 1560 - 1600 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On November 14, it was 20.33 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons from the previous workday and 1.86 tons from the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: On November 14, it was 84.08%, a 2.38% increase from 81.70% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The impact of the new export quota news faded, and market sentiment cooled. Mainstream spot factory prices fell with weak trading [5] - Regional Analysis: Shandong expected falling prices due to weak demand; Henan expected to follow the downward trend; the delivery area and Northeast expected stable prices [5] - Supply and Demand: Supply increased as maintenance units returned. Demand was weak as the fourth - batch quota was issued, and domestic demand entered a "vacuum period" [5] - Price Forecast: With a loose supply - demand situation, urea prices are expected to continue to decline [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral Strategy: Short positions are recommended [6] - Arbitrage Strategy: Hold off on arbitrage operations [6] Group 6: Related Charts - Charts cover various aspects such as urea daily output, operating rate, production, enterprise inventory, and related downstream product data from 2022 - 2025 [10][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has cooled down after the impact of the new export quota news faded. The ex - factory prices of urea in mainstream areas are falling, and the trading volume is weak. The supply has recovered, and the ex - factory prices are expected to continue the downward trend [5]. - The domestic supply is loose, and the overall demand is showing a downward trend. The autumn fertilizer season in North China has ended, and the downstream grass - roots orders are scarce. The domestic demand is still limited in the short term, and the spot market sentiment remains sluggish [5]. - The fourth batch of export quotas is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The international market will have a greater impact on the domestic market, but the domestic autumn fertilizer is fully over, and the overall domestic demand is about to enter a "vacuum period" [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Strategy - For unilateral trading, go short at high levels; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for over - the - counter trading, stay on the sidelines [5]. 2. Core Data Changes Supply - In the 45th week of 2025 (20251106 - 1112), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 87.53%, a week - on - week increase of 1.87%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% [6]. - In the 45th week of 2025 (20251106 - 1112), the capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 87.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81% [6]. Demand - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251107 - 1113), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from the previous week [6]. - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251107 - 1113), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 30.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points [6]. - As of November 14, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,300 tons, an increase of 280 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 27.45% [6]. - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 106,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous week [6]. - As of November 12, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.71 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period [6]. Inventory - On November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from the previous week [6]. - The sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 82,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8% [6]. Valuation - The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is firm, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal has declined slightly. The fixed - bed production of urea has a loss of 110 yuan/ton, the water - coal slurry production has a loss of 70 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production has a profit of 168 yuan/ton. The futures are fluctuating, the basis is - 100 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 67 yuan/ton [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that urea will continue its downward trend. The domestic supply is abundant, and with the end of the autumn fertilizer season in North China, the overall demand is set to enter a "vacuum period." Although the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas may boost market sentiment in the short - term, the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated and weakened, closing at 1640 (-21/-1.26%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices were weakly stable with average trading. Different regions had different ex - factory price ranges, such as 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton in Henan, 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton for small - sized in Shandong and Hebei, 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton for medium and small - sized in Shanxi, 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton for small - sized in Anhui, and 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [3]. Important Information - On November 11, the daily production of the urea industry was 19.51 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and an increase of 1.49 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, up 3.68% from 79.73% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - The impact of the news about the new export quota has faded, and market sentiment has cooled. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes led the increase, but market sentiment cooled, with the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declining, raw material inventory being abundant, finished product inventory being high, and few grass - roots orders. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and the ex - factory quotes followed the increase. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory prices followed the increase, and the market atmosphere was average. The demand in Northeast China was stable, and the trading sentiment was okay [5]. - The maintenance devices have gradually returned, and the daily average production has increased to around 19.6 tons. On the demand side, with the issuance of the fourth batch of quotas, the influence of international prices on the domestic market has increased again. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, and the grass - roots stockpiling is coming to an end. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the urea inventory can be used for more than half a month. The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased slightly by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, which is at a high level overall [5]. - The domestic supply is loose, and the overall demand is showing a downward trend. In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited. Although the new quota issuance will boost market sentiment to some extent in the short - term, the domestic autumn fertilizer has ended, and the overall demand is about to enter a "vacuum period." With the recent callback of bulk commodities and the loose fundamentals of urea, it is expected that urea will continue to decline [5]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short at high levels [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7].