【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 3 日 尿素周报：高价抵触，盘面小幅回调 摘要： 周末以来，尿素报价呈现下调趋势，市场成交疲弱，经销商热情 不高。现货市场上周整体小幅回调，主要下游小麦肥收尾，价格反弹后， 对高价拿货意愿低，上游工厂降价吸单，但后市依然有采购需求，价格 难跌至前低。基本面来看，尿素上游工厂装置多发复产，产量快速回升， 目前尚未开始规模性的限气限产，近期预计高位日产运行。成本端来看， 后续迎峰度冬需求旺盛，煤价有上涨预期，下方水煤浆工艺成本支撑尿 素价格。下游终端需求以华北地区及苏皖地区的小麦肥为主，复合肥冬 储肥目前市场价格博弈中，整体备肥节奏较往年缓慢。本期复合肥工厂 开工负荷及厂内库存均回升，秋季肥收尾阶段，提升开工以保供，终端 需求不及预期，成品库存小幅增加，市场目前关注磷复合肥会议进展。 虽上游工厂产量有所增加，但天气转好，下游农需收尾中，拿货积极性 增加，叠加备肥需求，本期尿素库存去化，但目前依然处于累库周期， 难改累库趋势。整体来说，虽目前需求端呈现偏弱状态，但普遍对后市 依旧持有预期，淡储、复合肥冬储等将影响尿素价格，目前盘面回调中， 我们预计难回前低，低 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand was sporadically released, and the ex - factory price stopped falling and rebounded; this week's view is that demand is released periodically, and the ex - factory price is mainly stable with an upward trend [5] - Short - term domestic demand is still limited, agricultural demand has ended, compound fertilizer has not started on a large scale, and the spot market sentiment is still low. The price difference between domestic and international markets is still large, but the export window is about to close, and the impact of the international market on the domestic market is greatly weakened. In the short term, it is slightly stronger, and in the medium - to - long term, it is still weak [5] - The trading strategy is to be slightly stronger in the short term and weaker in the medium - to - long term for unilateral trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Due to partial device maintenance, the daily output has dropped to around 187,000 tons. The Indian tender price has dropped to around $400 CFR, and the price difference between domestic and international markets is large, but the export window is about to close [5] - The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stockpiling is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the inventory of urea can be used for more than half a month, so the procurement sentiment for raw materials is not high [5] - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased by 14,700 tons to around 1.63 million tons, which is at a high level overall [5] - With the firm rise of futures, downstream agricultural follow - up, and better weather, the shipment of compound fertilizer products in the central plains has accelerated, and raw material procurement at low prices for rigid demand has improved the order receipt of manufacturers, and the ex - factory price has been raised [5] - The ex - factory price in the mainstream delivery area has rebounded to around 1,540 - 1,570 yuan/ton, and the downstream acceptance has decreased. After the meeting, there is no stimulus policy, and the demand sustainability needs to be observed [5] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply - National**: In the 42nd week of 2025 (October 16 - 22, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 81.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.42%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 67.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.19% [6] - **Supply - Shandong**: In the 42nd week of 2025 (October 16 - 22, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of Shandong urea was 83.82%, unchanged from the previous week [6] - **Demand - Melamine**: In the 43rd week of 2025 (October 17 - 23, 2025), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 48.30%, a decrease of 6.88 percentage points from the previous week [6] - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer**: In the 43rd week of 2025 (October 17 - 23, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 27.71%, a week - on - week increase of 3.53 percentage points [6] - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer Urea Demand**: As of October 24, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 850 tons, an increase of 450 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 112.5% [6] - **Demand - Northeast Arrival Volume**: This week (October 17 - 24, 2025), the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 110,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week [6] - **Demand - Advance Receipts**: As of October 22, 2025, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.41 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [6] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: On October 22, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6302 million tons, an increase of 14,800 tons from the previous week [6] - **Inventory - Port**: In the 43rd week, the sample inventory of urea ports was 210,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 236,000 tons [6] - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal increased, the spot price of urea rebounded, the fixed - bed production had a loss of 125 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production had a loss of 110 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production had a profit of 124 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was - 100 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weather improvement has led to increased downstream agricultural purchases and a decline in supply, slowing down the inventory accumulation of enterprises. The futures market has seen four consecutive days of gains, but the spot market has underperformed, resulting in a further weakening of the basis. The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Currently, the high - inventory situation of enterprises remains unchanged, suppressing the performance of near - term spot prices, and there is still a lack of strong driving forces [12]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply side has seen an increase in device maintenance, with the enterprise operating rate at 78.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. The daily production is 18.49 tons, lower than the same period last year. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural demand has increased, and the enterprise's advance orders have risen. The compound fertilizer operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, reaching 27.71%, a month - on - month increase of 3.35%. Overall, the domestic demand has improved [12]. - Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level. The strengthening of the futures market has led to a further weakening of the basis, and the 1 - 5 spread remains at a low level. The export profit is at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued, indicating that the urea valuation is low [12]. - The enterprise inventory is 163.02 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 tons, and at a high level compared to the same period last year. The port inventory is 21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6 tons, indicating an accelerated departure of goods from the port [12]. - In the short term, the agricultural demand has improved, and the compound fertilizer operating rate has also increased, leading to an improvement in short - term supply and demand and a strengthening of the futures market. However, the spot market has been slow to follow the price increase, resulting in a weak basis. Currently, consumption still lacks positive factors, and the supply - side enterprise profits are at a low level. Given the low valuation and weak driving forces, the downward space for spot prices is relatively limited. The market is waiting for positive factors to emerge. In the future, as the weather improves, downstream enterprises will have a stronger willingness to stockpile fertilizers, and with the upcoming off - season storage, off - season storage merchants are expected to have a strong purchasing willingness at the current low price level, and there are still some positive factors waiting to be released in the market. In terms of strategy, due to the high inventory, the price volatility has decreased, and the downward space for prices is relatively limited. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The futures market has seen four consecutive days of gains due to improved weather, increased downstream agricultural purchases, and a decline in supply. The spot market has underperformed, and the basis has further weakened. The 1 - 5 spread is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply side: Device maintenance has increased, with an operating rate of 78.03% and daily production of 18.49 tons. Demand side: Agricultural demand has increased, and the compound fertilizer operating rate has rebounded to 27.71% [12]. - **Valuation**: Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level. The export profit is high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory is 163.02 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 tons. Port inventory is 21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6 tons [12]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term improvement in supply and demand has led to a strengthening of the futures market, but the spot market has been slow to follow, resulting in a weak basis [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Data**: The prices of futures contracts 09, 01, and 05 have all increased compared to the previous week. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei has weakened. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer and melamine have remained stable, with some changes in profits [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The futures market has rebounded with a decrease in open interest [28] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Both coal - based and gas - based production profits are at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [32] - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, while port inventory has decreased [37] 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There are plans to put new urea production facilities into operation, but the specific impact on supply needs to be further observed [46] - **Urea Operating Rate**: Short - term maintenance losses have increased, and the operating rate has decreased [48] - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing routine, loss - based, or policy - based maintenance, and some enterprises have planned maintenance in the future [51][52] 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption**: The monthly consumption shows certain seasonal characteristics [57] - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the production profit has changed slightly [61] - **Nitrogen Source Comparison**: The price ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate show certain trends [63] - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profit, and export volume show certain changes [66][68] - **Terminal Demand**: The demand in industries such as plywood, real estate shows certain trends [74][78] - **Export**: The export profit is good, and the export volume shows certain changes [84][85] 3.6. Option - Related - The open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility of urea options show certain characteristics [95][97][104] 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - The urea industry chain has certain characteristics, and the fertilizer demand of domestic and international crops shows seasonal patterns [107][114]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for urea continues to be weak, and the price is oscillating downward. The market sentiment is generally low, with mainstream urea spot ex - factory quotes falling and trading being mediocre [5]. - Some urea production devices are under maintenance, and the daily output has dropped to around 187,000 tons. The export window is about to close, and the impact on the domestic market sentiment is limited [5]. - The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grassroots stocking is winding up, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased to around 1.61 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. - In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited, the agricultural demand has ended, and the compound fertilizer has not started production on a large scale. The spot market sentiment remains sluggish. Although the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is still large, it only provides some support to the domestic spot market [5]. - The ex - factory prices of some manufacturers have been lowered, but the order intake is still weak. The fundamentals are still relatively loose, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Overview**: The demand for urea is weak, and the price is oscillating downward. Different regions have different price trends. The overall supply is loose, and the demand is declining. The trading strategy is to short on rebounds in the short - term for single - side trading, and to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5]. - **Core Data Changes** - **Supply**: In the 41st week of 2025 (October 9 - 15), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 83.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.74%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 70.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.64%. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate of urea was 83.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51% [6]. - **Demand**: In the 42nd week of 2025 (October 10 - 16), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 24.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32 percentage points. As of October 17, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 220 tons or 35.46%. As of October 15, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.71 days, a decrease of 0.29 days from the previous period [6]. - **Inventory**: On October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6154 million tons, an increase of 171,500 tons or 11.88% from the previous week. As of October 16, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 446,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons or 7.47% from the previous week [6]. - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal has risen, the spot price of urea has fallen. The fixed - bed production incurs a loss of 110 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production incurs a loss of 80 yuan/ton, and the fluidized - bed production has a profit of 150 yuan/ton. The futures are oscillating, with a basis of - 100 yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 70 yuan/ton [6]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking The report only lists the sub - items such as "Mainstream Manufacturer Ex - factory Prices", "Basis", "Regional Spread", etc., but no specific content for these sub - items is provided in the given text, so a detailed summary cannot be made.

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, the price of urea futures has reached a new low for the year, with total open interest increasing significantly, indicating a market in a phase of delayed demand release, limited supply contraction, and undecided policies [1] Demand Dynamics - The demand for urea is currently characterized by delayed release and structural differentiation, with initial signs of recovery in autumn fertilizer demand following the end of rainfall in North China, but downstream stocking enthusiasm remains low [2][4] - The price of small granular urea has recently dropped to around 1500 yuan/ton, a 14.53% decrease compared to the same period last year, with some regions seeing spot prices fall to 1460 yuan/ton, marking a yearly low [4] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand for urea shows a differentiated pattern, with compound fertilizer companies holding 735,000 tons of finished product inventory and a low operating rate of 25.5% year-on-year [5] - The decline in urea prices has led to increased profits for melamine, with theoretical gross margins rising to 400 yuan/ton, while the board industry faces reduced production due to persistent humid weather [5] Supply Situation - Short-term supply contraction is limited, with urea daily production dropping from around 200,000 tons to nearly 190,000 tons due to maintenance, but still at a high level compared to the past five years [6][8] - The impact of maintenance on production is expected to be minimal, with only a few companies announcing specific maintenance schedules [9] Policy and Export Outlook - In September, China's urea exports reached 1 million tons, but the cumulative export volume from January to September was only 2.44 million tons, far below the annual quota of 4.2 million tons [10] - The upcoming tender from India for 2 million tons of urea presents a significant opportunity for domestic companies to reduce inventory, contingent on the extension of the export window and potential adjustments to export pricing policies [10] Price Guidance - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association has issued a quarterly guidance price for urea, indicating a clear intention to support prices, although practical implementation remains questionable [11] - Urea inventory has risen to a high of 1.4439 million tons, which is expected to suppress upward price movement in the short term [11][13] Market Sentiment - The emergence of low prices has led to marginal improvements in the urea fundamentals, with futures prices finding support around 1600 yuan/ton, but the market still faces significant supply-demand pressures [13]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，企业库存累积，甘肃、河北等多省 库存增加。需求端，工业及农业需求均偏弱，农需秋季用量零散，复合肥企业产能利用率低，未 大规模开工，处于需求真空期。出口内外价差较大，虽有第三批配额落地，对国内价格支撑有限。 国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1710（+10），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差113，升贴水比例6.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存168.6万吨（+16.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； ...

尿素周报 | 2025-10-12 内需继续偏弱，关注政策动态 市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1597元/吨（-12）；河南小颗粒市场价1530元/吨（-10）；山东小颗粒市场价1540元/吨（-10）； 江苏小颗粒市场价1550元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-47元/吨（+2）；河南尿素基差-57 元/吨（-18）；江苏尿素基差-37元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润10.0元/吨（-10.0）；出口利润982.4元/吨（+11.3）。 供应端：截至2025-10-12，企业产能利用率85.67%（+1.97%）；企业厂内库存为144.4万吨（+21.2）；港口库存为41.5 万吨（-3.8）。 需求端：截至2025-10-12，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+4.0%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.2）。 市场分析 尿素需求偏弱，尿素现货价格持续走弱，期货跟随震荡下跌，企业继续下调报价，低位成交好转，持续性一般。 内需跟进不足导致厂内库存继续累积，本周较国庆节前累库21万吨，港口库存随着出口有序进行小幅去库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the domestic urea market was in a pattern of supply surplus, with weak demand support. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The urea market remained in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation, and it was recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities after clear positive signals [12]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In September, it was the off - season for domestic agricultural demand. Although exports continued, they could not digest domestic production. Enterprise inventories continued to rise, the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged, the spot price continued to fall, the futures price fluctuated, and both the basis and the inter - month spread reached historical lows [12]. - **Supply**: In September, domestic urea production was 5.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 180,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. With the return of maintenance devices, the daily output returned to a year - on - year high level, and the supply pressure was high [12]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the incremental demand mainly relied on exports. Exports increased significantly in August and were expected to remain at a high level in September. The production of compound fertilizers for autumn fertilizers began to decline, and the operating rate returned to a low level [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price continued to decline, and both coal - based and gas - based production profits were at recent lows. The 1 - 5 spread reached a new low, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the market structure was weak. The export profit was at a high level, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: In September, enterprise inventories increased by 130,000 tons, and the latest inventory was 1.44 million tons, a year - on - year high. Port inventories declined from a high level, and the latest inventory was 415,000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: It was recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when the price was low [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of futures contracts such as 09, 01, and 05 all changed to varying degrees. The prices of domestic spot markets in Shandong, Henan, and other regions also declined. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizers and melamine decreased, and international prices generally declined [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 139, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 137. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and other regions also declined [13]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The profit of fixed - bed production was at a low level compared to the same period, and the profit of gas - based production reached a new low in recent years [31]. - **Inventory**: After the holiday, enterprise inventories further increased, and port inventories declined from a high level [34]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: There were planned production - expansion projects for urea, with some enterprises expected to put new production capacity into operation in 2024 - 2025 [45]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of urea production returned to a medium - high level. There were many device maintenance situations, including policy - based, cost - based, and routine maintenance [47][50]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption**: The monthly consumption of urea showed certain seasonal characteristics. The operating rate of compound fertilizers declined, and the profit of compound fertilizer production also changed [56][58]. - **Nitrogen Source Comparison**: The ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate all changed [61]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine all showed certain trends [64][66]. - **Terminal Demand**: The export volume of plywood, housing construction data, and real - estate transaction data all affected the demand for urea. The export profit of urea was good, and the export volume also changed [72][82]. 3.6 Option - related - The trading volume, open interest, and PCR indicators of urea options all changed, and the volatility of options also showed certain characteristics [93][95]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - The report presented the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry characteristics through diagrams [106][108][110].

国内长假期间，尿素现货价格延续弱势下行。当前，尿素市场供应维持高位，下游采购态度谨慎，整体 弱势格局尚未改变。 供应压力持续 9月，受部分尿素企业计划检修及晋城地区企业停车改造影响，尿素产量略有收缩。据隆众资讯统计，9 月尿素产量为578万吨，环比下降2.51%，同比增幅收窄至2.54%。然而，在产量环比下降的同时，尿素 企业库存却连续7周累积。截至9月25日，企业库存达121.82万吨，较8月底增长12.19%，同比上升 20.15%。库存逆势增长表明，尽管产量回落，但其收缩幅度不及需求下降速度，市场供应宽松格局仍 未改变。 此外，隆众资讯监测显示，8月下旬，安徽中能、山东晋控日月及新疆新冀能源合计180万吨尿素产能正 式投放，尿素市场供应能力进一步增强。 从周度产量节奏看，9月下旬以来，前期检修装置集中复产叠加新产能释放，尿素日产量已见底回升。 截至9月25日当周，尿素周度日均产量达20.15万吨，显著高于往年同期水平。预计9月末至10月上旬， 在装置检修与复产交替影响下，产量规模将保持相对稳定，高供应压力仍将持续。 当前尿素下游需求支撑较弱。农业方面，9月是传统氮元素需求淡季，冬小麦底肥播种虽带来一定需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In Q3, urea prices were boosted multiple times by domestic anti - involution measures, urea export quota news, and the friendly relationship between China and India. After the domestic positive news was realized, domestic demand was weak, prices declined successively, and the spot decline was greater than the futures decline, gradually turning into futures premium [5]. - In the context of loose supply and demand, urea remains in a weak - running state. The spot price may remain oscillating at a low level around 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton. A negative feedback mechanism may form where low prices attract orders, but downstream buyers' "buy - on - rising" behavior leads to sporadic downstream demand. For the futures market, the 01 contract should pay short - term attention to the pressure level around 1,730 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract should focus on the 1,750/1,770 yuan/ton pressure levels. It is expected to mainly sell on rebounds in Q4 [6]. - On the supply side, affected by technological transformation in Shanxi and parade - related maintenance in Q3, urea production decreased quarter - on - quarter. However, with subsequent capacity expansion and the resumption of factory operations, it is expected that after the production recovers, the daily urea output will still fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In Q4 2025, production is expected to be higher than the same period last year due to high - level capacity [6][52]. - On the demand side, since Q3, the demand for autumn fertilizers has been realized, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has rebounded but remained at the same level as previous years, without bringing new urea demand. Currently, most of the autumn fertilizers have been stocked, and the factory operating rate has declined to digest high - level inventories. Industrial demand is relatively sluggish. Although the consumption of thermal power denitration and vehicle urea has increased by about 8% this year, weak real - estate data has dragged down the expansion of urea industrial demand. Although the export policy has been relaxed, the export quota is far less than the surplus in urea supply and demand, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the loose supply - demand pattern [6]. Summaries by Directory Q3 Market Review - Urea prices in Q3 showed a complex trend. Initially, prices were affected by factors such as gas - head device复产, changes in downstream factory operating rates, and export news, resulting in fluctuations including price drops, rebounds, and high - level consolidations. Eventually, after the export positive news was realized, domestic demand was insufficient, and the market was under pressure to decline due to oversupply [9]. - Due to continued capacity expansion and high - level inventory, urea prices have been lower year - on - year this year and are currently at the lowest level in the same period. It is expected to fluctuate between 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton in Q4. After the price fell below 1,600 yuan/ton, downstream buyers started to increase purchases as the futures price rebounded. However, domestic demand is expected to weaken after the National Day holiday, and a negative feedback mechanism may form [21]. - In terms of the term structure, urea maintains a contango structure with near - term weakness and long - term strength. The 1 - 5 spread remains in a discount state. With insufficient domestic demand and continuous inventory accumulation in the industry, the 01 contract oscillates at a low level. It is expected that the 1 - 5 spread will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to reverse - spread opportunities [27]. - Currently, the basis is low, and the market is in a futures premium stage, suitable for selling hedging. After the basis strengthens, hedging supplies may enter the market, increasing market liquidity. The overall basis fluctuation is small, and it is expected to oscillate with a small amplitude in Q4 [37]. - According to Zhengshang Institute data, the settlement price of the 09 contract was 1,643 yuan/ton, with a 17 - yuan/ton premium for Henan spot and a 37 - yuan/ton premium for Hebei spot. The delivery volume of the UR2509 contract was about 4,274 lots, and the nominal delivery volume was about 85,480 tons, an increase of 3,204 lots compared to the 09 contract last year. The significant increase in futures delivery volume and registered warehouse receipts shows the loose market pattern of urea this year [41]. Supply Analysis - As of now, 3.12 million tons of new urea capacity have been put into operation in 2025, and another 3.56 million tons are expected to be commissioned in Q4. Although some backward capacity is being phased out, the overall capacity is still increasing [47]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative urea production was about 47.4467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2092 million tons (+9.74%). Affected by technological transformation in Shanxi and parade - related maintenance in Q3, production decreased quarter - on - quarter. After subsequent capacity expansion and factory resumption, daily production is expected to fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In Q4 2025, production is expected to be higher than the same period last year [52]. - According to Longzhong's statistics, about 63.8 million tons of capacity within a 20 - year operating cycle account for 84% of the total capacity. The impact of anti - involution measures on urea production is limited. Although coal prices have increased significantly due to anti - involution, coal - based enterprises still have profits, so the impact on urea is currently small. However, if coal prices continue to rise or urea prices fall, cost support may emerge [56][60]. - As of September 25, the gross profit of fixed - bed urea production dropped to - 247 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - based production dropped to - 225 yuan/ton, while the water - coal - slurry production still had positive gross profit. The probability of large - scale production cuts by natural - gas - based enterprises is low due to long - term contracts with upstream suppliers [60]. - Historically, the urea price in the Shandong market was previously benchmarked against the fixed - bed production cost, and a rebound was likely when approaching the cost line. Since July 2024, the spot market price has gradually moved towards the water - coal - slurry cost, and currently, the cost support of water - coal - slurry is weak [65]. Demand Analysis - In terms of demand structure, agricultural demand is the most important, accounting for about 49%, and compound fertilizer demand accounts for about 25%, with the combined proportion close to 75% [74]. - It is estimated that the wheat sowing area in China in 2025 will be 355 million mu, a slight increase of 0.3% from the previous year. The corn sowing area will be about 44.269 million hectares, with a production of 298 million tons and a yield of 6,733 kg/ha, increasing by 1.08%, 2.76%, and 3.87% respectively compared to the previous year. The agricultural demand for urea is expected to increase steadily by about 5% in 2025 [78]. - The 2024 - 2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve project bidding document has adjusted the off - season storage rules. The proportion of urea in the reserve fertilizer has been reduced from not less than 30% to not less than 20%, and the single - target quantity in some provinces has been adjusted. The off - season storage enthusiasm is expected to increase this year, and the preparation time may be earlier and more dispersed than last year [80]. - Since July, the urea price has been oscillating downward, and the spread between compound fertilizer and urea has widened, leading to a recovery in factory profits. However, due to pre - emptive demand in the first half of the year and high finished - product inventories, factories are currently focusing on inventory digestion, and there has been no significant increase in the operating rate [85]. - As of September 26, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants was 35.27%, with an average operating rate of 40% this year. After the demand was pre - empted in the first half of the year, the operating rate has been insufficient. Although the demand for autumn fertilizers has been realized in Q3, it has not brought new urea demand. Currently, most of the autumn fertilizers have been stocked, and the factory operating rate has declined [90]. - Other industrial demands include urea - formaldehyde resin, melamine, vehicle urea, and thermal power denitration. The consumption of thermal power denitration and vehicle urea has increased by about 8% this year. However, the real - estate market has been under pressure in 2025, with a 12.9% year - on - year decline in real - estate development investment and declines in new construction, construction, and completion areas, which has dragged down the expansion of urea industrial demand [94]. - As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's melamine was 60.58%, and the average operating rate from January to September was 62%, flat year - on - year. Since August, the operating rate has been lower year - on - year. With the improvement of downstream demand and the resumption of previously - maintained factories, the demand for urea from melamine is expected to improve marginally [98]. - In 2025, the urea export policy has been relaxed, and domestic prices have been boosted multiple times since Q3. However, the export quota is far less than the surplus in supply and demand, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the loose supply - demand pattern. As the export window closes, the boost from exports is expected to fade [104]. Inventory - As of September 25, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1218,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 204,300 tons. The in - factory inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, about 20% higher year - on - year. Since April, the in - factory inventory has been oscillating upwards. With high production and insufficient domestic demand, inventory has continued to accumulate even with the gradual opening of exports. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase as there is no large - scale procurement demand for autumn fertilizers and the off - season storage is approaching [112]. - Since Q3, the number of days of pending orders for upstream urea factories has been higher year - on - year, mainly supported by export orders. As the export window closes, the shipment pressure of upstream factories may increase [112]. - India's urea inventory is currently at a relatively low level in recent years, and 6 - 9 months account for 70% of its annual demand. India has issued multiple tenders in Q3. The latest tender prices are lower than expected, and the domestic market has not been boosted, with the expected Chinese participation volume around 500,000 - 700,000 tons [114][116]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for urea from 2019 - 2025E, showing the production, export, various demand components, total domestic demand, and surplus volume in each year. In 2025E, the production is expected to be 69.76 million tons, exports 4 million tons, and the surplus is 130,000 tons [118].