Group 1 - The domestic urea futures market is experiencing a fluctuating downward trend, with the main contract opening at 1661.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of approximately 2.08% [1] - Urea prices are facing increased resistance to rise, as industrial compound fertilizer enterprises have ramped up production, leading to a sustained high daily output of urea and a generally loose supply-demand situation [2] - The marginal demand for urea has shown some improvement, with compound fertilizer weekly operating rates increasing by 3.5% to 40.5%, and the number of urea orders rising by 0.7% to 7.35 [2] Group 2 - Urea inventory has decreased to 1.291 million tons, down by 73,000 tons week-on-week, indicating ongoing destocking efforts [2] - Despite a number of maintenance activities in December affecting around 7 million tons of total capacity, daily production is expected to remain high at 19-20 thousand tons, with a reported daily output of 19.68 thousand tons, which is an increase of 1.49 thousand tons year-on-year [2] - The urea market is currently supported by fundamentals and policies, with short-term downward space being effectively supported while facing upward pressure, leading to expectations of continued fluctuations [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, domestic urea demand is limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The price is expected to be range - bound. In the medium - term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded, closing at 1677 (+12/+0.72%) [3] - Spot market: Factory - gate prices increased, and trading was stable. Factory - gate prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1589 - 1610 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium - and small - sized 1560 - 1580 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1470 - 1520 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 28, the daily urea production was 20.34 tons, the same as the previous workday and 1.34 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.10%, a 0.06% increase from 84.04% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Shandong: The mainstream factory - gate price was weakly stable. The industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, with sufficient raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory. Orders were scarce, and the factory - gate price was expected to be weakly stable [5] - Henan: Market sentiment was weak. The factory - gate price followed the increase, but trading volume decreased. It was expected to operate weakly [5] - Areas around the delivery area: The factory - gate price was firm. Demand in the Northeast increased, but new orders were weak. The factory - gate price was expected to remain stable [5] - Overall supply and demand: Maintenance devices returned, increasing daily production to around 20.4 tons. The fourth batch of quotas was issued, increasing the impact of international prices on the domestic market. Demand from compound fertilizer plants declined, and inventory was high. Urea production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.33 tons to around 1.36 million tons [5] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In December, on the supply side, previously shut - down coal - based plants will resume operations, and new production capacities will be released, but gas - based plants will start to shut down for maintenance. Domestic supply will remain stable at a high level, with daily production expected to stay above 200,000 tons. On the demand side, agricultural demand will be generally stable. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and spring fertilizer production will be advanced. Winter storage will continue in the Northeast, and some enterprises will stock up at low prices. With the fourth batch of export quotas released, attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders. Overall, urea prices in December are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5][98]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In December, the domestic urea supply will be high and stable, and the demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [6][98]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In November, the ex - factory prices of domestic urea in major regions fluctuated. The daily production of domestic urea increased to over 200,000 tons, with sufficient overall supply. The impact of exports on the domestic market gradually faded, and the market returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The overall demand was stable, and the ex - factory prices of urea in major regions fluctuated between 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, and ended the month at around 1570 - 1600 yuan/ton [10][11]. - The main futures contract of urea fluctuated widely, with the center slightly moving up. In the first half of November, it was affected by the fourth batch of quotas and rebounded continuously, reaching a maximum of 1679 yuan/ton. In the second half, it returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals and declined weakly. By the end of the month, the 2601 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. (2) Supply Analysis - New Production Mostly Concentrated in the Second Half of the Year - From January to November 2025, 450,000 tons of new domestic urea plants were put into production. In November, 70,000 tons of new plants were expected to be put into operation. By the end of the year, the total domestic urea production capacity is expected to reach about 8.26 million tons [31][33]. - From January to October, the cumulative domestic urea production reached 5.906 million tons, a significant increase of 430,000 tons or 7.86% compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the production in November will be 615,000 tons, and the total production from January to November will reach 6.506 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 471,000 tons or 7.85% [35]. - In December, coal prices are expected to decline first and then rise. As coal prices fluctuate and urea spot prices rebound, coal - based production profits will slightly expand. The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventories are expected to fluctuate [39][46][52]. (3) Export - Related Factors - India's urea import demand may decrease in 2025, but the reduction will be limited. The fourth batch of export quotas has been released, and it is estimated that there will still be about 600,000 tons of exports from November to December [58][63]. (4) Demand Improvement in December - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity [69]. - In December, industrial demand for urea, such as from the melamine industry, is not expected to have significant highlights. The capacity utilization rate of China's melamine in the 48th week of 2025 (November 21 - 27) was 60.80% on average, down 1.40 percentage points from the previous week [75][77]. - In December, compound fertilizer plants will gradually start production. Agricultural top - dressing still has some demand, but it is limited. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and the production of spring fertilizer will be advanced. Winter storage in the Northeast will continue to support the prices of large - granular urea [84][90][92]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Similar to the preface, in December, supply will be stable at a high level, and demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [98]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, domestic urea demand is limited, but with the new quota issuance, the impact of the international market on the domestic market increases. The acceptance of lower prices by downstream users has improved, and short - term urea is expected to be range - bound. In the medium - term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and urea is expected to be in a weak trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded, closing at 1654 (+21/+1.29%) [3]. - Spot market: Factory prices were stable with a downward trend, and trading improved. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On November 26, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.34 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons from the previous working day and 1.17 million tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.72% from 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Shandong: The mainstream factory price was weakly stable, market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, raw material and finished product inventories were high, and new orders were scarce. Factory prices were expected to be weakly stable [5]. - Henan: Market sentiment was weak, factory prices followed the increase, trading volume decreased, and factory prices were expected to operate weakly [5]. - Areas around the delivery area: Factory prices were firm, market sentiment was average, demand in the Northeast increased, but new orders were weak. Factory prices were expected to remain stable [5]. - Overall supply and demand: Maintenance devices returned, daily output increased to around 20.4 million tons. On the demand side, the fourth batch of quotas was issued, and the impact of international prices on the domestic market increased again. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China basically ended, and the demand was declining. The inventory of urea production enterprises decreased by 7.33 million tons to around 1.36 billion tons, remaining at a high level [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, domestic urea demand remains limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not yet starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The domestic - international price difference is large, and the new quota issuance increases the impact of the international market on the domestic one. Urea is expected to be mainly range - bound. In the medium term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and urea is expected to be weak [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures oscillated and declined, closing at 1630 (-7/-0.43%) [3] - Spot market: The ex - factory price was stable with a downward trend, and the trading volume was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 25, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.11 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.10 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.17%, a decrease of 0.94% compared to 84.11% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory price was stable with a downward trend, market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, raw material inventory was abundant, finished product inventory was high, grass - roots orders were scarce, and the ex - factory price was expected to be stable with a downward trend. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, the ex - factory price followed the increase, and it was expected to operate weakly. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory price was firm, the demand in the Northeast increased, and the ex - factory price was expected to be temporarily stable. Overall, the supply was loose, the demand was declining, and the inventory was high [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high levels, do not chase short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is entering the traditional storage season in Q4 2025, with improved market sentiment supported by concentrated storage demand, steady export activities, and a rebound in the compound fertilizer industry, leading to a gradual decrease in urea inventories [1] Group 1: Production Dynamics - Urea production capacity utilization remains at 83.91%, slightly down by 0.17 percentage points month-on-month but up by 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Daily production stabilizes at a high level of 202,900 tons, ensuring overall supply remains sufficient [2] - Localized supply disruptions due to maintenance and upgrades at certain companies are offset by the resumption of production at others, maintaining regional supply stability [2] Group 2: Demand Release - Urea's absolute valuation is currently in a relatively reasonable range, with storage and fertilizer demand gradually being released, providing price support [3] - Storage progress in various regions is ahead of previous years, with significant completion rates reported in areas like Shandong and Guangxi [3] Group 3: Compound Fertilizer Industry - The compound fertilizer industry's operating rate has increased, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating improved production and sales rates [4] - The utilization rate for compound fertilizer production is at 34.61%, up by 4.29 percentage points month-on-month [4] Group 4: Export Activities - Exports have played a crucial role in balancing the urea supply-demand equation, with cumulative exports exceeding 4 million tons by October 2025 [5] - October's export volume reached approximately 1.2 million tons, significantly surpassing market expectations [5] - The latest pricing data indicates a favorable market outlook, with port inventories rising and domestic urea inventories decreasing by 46,400 tons week-on-week [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Multiple favorable factors, including storage demand, export activities, and a rebound in compound fertilizer production, are supporting market sentiment [5] - The high daily production levels may exert some pressure on market prices, with regional price differentiation expected [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to oscillate within the valuation range. The domestic fundamental pressure is relatively high, but the downward driving force is mitigated by policy regulation. In November, with mid - stream replenishment and the fourth batch of export quotas driving speculation, spot trading has continuously improved, and upstream enterprises are expected to be in a stage of slight destocking [2]. - The 01 contract of urea has a strong fundamental pressure level at 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is expected to be at 1,550 - 1,560 yuan/ton. In terms of trading strategies, for single - side trading, it is expected to oscillate with short - term support and medium - term correction; for inter - period trading, it is recommended to go short on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high and go long on the 5 - 9 spread when it is low; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical data of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Jin Kai, Bo Da, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices of urea [5][9][15][19]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continues in 2025. The total new capacity in 2024 was 392 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to reach 716 tons, with multiple new capacity projects put into operation or planned to be put into operation [23]. - **Production Plan**: A list of urea production enterprise maintenance plans is provided, including information such as enterprise name, annual capacity, raw materials, shutdown and restart dates, and lost production [25]. - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high. Charts show the daily output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea in China [26][27]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices are stable, and the factory cash - flow cost line has increased. Cost calculations for Shanxi's fixed - bed factories and historical data on the full cost of urea's airflow bed, fixed - bed, and natural gas are presented [29][30][31]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state, and charts show the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different production methods [34][35][37]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. A table shows the monthly net import (export) data of urea from 2018 - 2025 (E) [40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics and is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn. Charts show the production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers [46][49][53]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry has its own fundamentals, including capacity utilization rate, production cost, inventory, and production profit [55][53][54]. - **Melamine**: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine are presented in charts [56][57][58]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand support from the real estate industry for panels is limited, but panel exports are resilient, with data on the export volume of plywood, OSB, and real estate construction and completion areas provided [59][60]. 3.4 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025 (week 47), the sample port inventory of Chinese urea was 100,000 tons, a 21.95% increase from the previous week. Most ports have low inventory levels, and the overall port inventory fluctuates slightly [64]. - **Factory Inventory**: On November 19, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a 3.13% decrease from the previous week. The inventory changes in different provinces vary, and the overall enterprise inventory has decreased [65]. 3.5 International Urea - Multiple charts show the historical data of international urea prices, including FOB prices of Chinese, Baltic, and Middle - East large - granular urea and CFR prices of Brazilian large - granular urea [69][70][72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that downstream buyers restocked at low prices, leading to a narrow rebound in spot prices. This week's view is that downstream buyers resist high prices, causing the ex - factory price to operate weakly. With the continuous increase in ex - factory prices since the weekend, market sentiment has cooled, and the spot ex - factory quotes of urea in mainstream areas are weakly stable with sluggish transactions. In the short term, domestic demand is still limited, the agricultural demand has ended, and the compound fertilizer industry has not started on a large scale, so the spot market sentiment remains sluggish. In the medium term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades and the autumn fertilizer season in China ends, overall demand is weak, and the urea market is expected to operate weakly. However, currently, some downstream buyers are restocking at low prices, and the Northeast region has increased purchases, so in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview - The ex - factory prices in Shandong are weakly stable, with a decline in the operating rate of industrial compound fertilizers, sufficient raw material inventory, high finished - product inventory, few grass - roots orders, and mainly rigid - demand replenishment. In Henan, the market sentiment is weak, the ex - factory prices follow the increase, and the order - receiving volume decreases. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices are firm, but the market atmosphere is average. Overall, the daily output has increased to around 20.4 million tons as maintenance devices return one after another. The fourth batch of quotas has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the inventory of urea can be used for more than half a month, resulting in low procurement sentiment for raw materials. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, remaining at a high level. [4] 2. Core Data Changes Supply - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 87.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21%. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate of urea was 84.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. [5] Demand - In the 47th week of 2025 (20251114 - 1120), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.20%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 34.61%, a week - on - week increase of 4.29 percentage points. As of November 21, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,260 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.08%. This week (20251114 - 20251121), the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 250,000 tons, an increase of 144,000 tons from last week. As of November 19, 2025, the pre - order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days, a decrease of 0.59 days from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 7.65%. [5] Inventory - On November 19, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons from last week. The sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 100,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from last week. [5] Valuation - In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal declined slightly, the spot price of urea rebounded, the fixed - bed production had a loss of 90 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production had a loss of 50 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production had a profit of 190 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 75 yuan/ton. [5]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is an energy and chemical R & D report on urea, dated November 21, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated and declined, closing at 1654 (-0.7/-0.42%) [3] - Spot market: Factory prices increased slightly, with trading volume being average. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On November 21, the daily production of the urea industry was 20.15 tons, 0.1 tons less than the previous working day and 1.34 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.33%, 0.1% higher than 83.23% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Short - term: Domestic demand is limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The price difference between domestic and international markets is large, and the new quota issuance increases the impact of the international market on the domestic market. The mainstream delivery area factory price is around 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance has decreased. Some compound fertilizer plants are restocking at low prices, and storage enterprises are purchasing. The urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] - Medium - term: The impact of the fourth batch of export quotas will fade, domestic autumn fertilizer production will end completely, and overall demand will be weak. As the factory price rises, downstream acceptance will decrease. Recently, commodities have collectively corrected, and the urea fundamentals are still loose. In the medium term, the urea market is expected to be weak [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although domestic demand is limited, new export quotas have been issued, increasing the influence of the international market on the domestic market. Some downstream enterprises are replenishing at low prices, and the receipt situation of urea enterprises has improved significantly. - In the medium term, urea is expected to be weak. The influence of the fourth - batch export quota will fade, overall demand will be weak, downstream acceptance will decrease as the ex - factory price rises, and the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1665 (0/0%). - Spot market: The ex - factory price increased slightly, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1540 - 1560 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based urea in China decreased. The coal - based urea capacity utilization rate was 87.23%, a 0.30% decrease from the previous week, and the gas - based urea capacity utilization rate was 72.55%, a 0.21% decrease from the previous week. This was due to the shutdown of 3 coal - based enterprises' devices and the resumption of 1 coal - based enterprise's shutdown device [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: Maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the daily output has increased to around 20.4 tons. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, but it is still at a high level. - Demand: The fourth - batch export quota has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grassroots procurement is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. - Price trend: In Shandong, the ex - factory price is expected to decline; in Henan, it is expected to follow the decline; in the delivery area and its surrounding areas, it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overall, in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, and in the medium term, it is expected to be weak [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]