1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the off - season. The number of urea maintenance units has increased, and the daily output has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level year - on - year. Agricultural fertilizer demand is weakening, mainly for reserve purchases. The increase in raw material replenishment of compound fertilizers supports urea demand. Port inventory has decreased, and registered warehouse receipts have increased significantly. Urea enterprise inventory has been destocking for nearly two months, but the destocking rate has slowed down recently. Although off - season storage and exports ease the short - term supply pressure, the medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price was first weak and then strong. On December 19, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1697 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a maximum of 1720 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1666 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1676 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.36% increase [2][3]. - The main urea basis weakened. On December 19, the main basis in the Henan market was - 21 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis ranged from (- 42) to 27 yuan/ton [2][7]. - The urea 1 - 5 spread was first strong and then weak. On December 19, the 1 - 5 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, and the weekly operating range was from (- 52) to (- 37) yuan/ton [2][8]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 82.69%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 57.69%, a decrease of 5.69 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily urea output was 19.51 tons. Some devices in Yunnan, Jilin, Henan, Anhui, Hubei, etc. were under maintenance or reduced production, while some devices in Xinjiang and Yunnan resumed production. The operation of gas - made urea devices decreased significantly, and some devices still had maintenance expectations, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in urea supply [2][10]. Cost - The anthracite market continued to operate weakly. As of December 18, the tax - included price of smokeless washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 870 - 940 yuan/ton, and the closing price center of gravity was down 15 yuan/ton from the same period last week [2][14]. Demand - The average advance collection of major urea producers was 5.8 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 99%. In terms of agricultural demand, it is mainly for reserve purchases. In terms of industrial demand, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer increased slightly, and the operating load rate of melamine decreased. Overall, production and sales were relatively stable [15][16]. - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 69.54 tons, an increase of 1.8 tons from the previous week. Winter storage was shipped in an orderly manner, and fertilizer enterprises adjusted their production starts flexibly. Production and sales in Northeast China were good, and the production start of fertilizer enterprises increased [2][20]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 60.77%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 3.135 tons. Some enterprises had short - term shutdowns and then resumed production, and some enterprises had production load reductions. Next week, some enterprises still have shutdown and overhaul plans, while some short - term shutdown and maintenance equipment will gradually resume production. It is expected that the overall operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will remain above 60% and fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support in the panel market increased [23]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 97.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons from the previous week. Urea port inventory was 23.3 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous week. There were 10,976 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 21.952 tons, a decrease of 320 receipts from the previous week, totaling 0.64 tons [2][26]. Key Points to Watch - The operating situation of compound fertilizers, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with current daily production and operating rates stabilizing, comprehensive inventory declining, and a clear de - stocking pattern. Agricultural and industrial demand are mainly on - demand, and the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. There is a large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports. Recently, export quota enterprises have mostly completed container loading, leading to a short - term decline in export demand. Although the Indian tender news announced this week boosted the futures market, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The UR2605 contract basis is - 7, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.4%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 131.8 million tons (-4.0), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are stable, comprehensive inventory is falling with an obvious de - stocking trend. Agricultural and industrial demand are on - demand, compound fertilizer and melamine operating rates are stable. Export demand is short - term down, but the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2605 contract basis is - 7, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.4%, bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 131.8 million tons (-4.0), bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract will fluctuate, industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is de - stocking, short - term export demand is down, and the domestic oversupply is still significant. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Positive Factors**: Inventory is being de - stocked [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic market is oversupplied, and daily production continues to reach new highs [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1690 (+10), Shandong spot is 1710 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1690 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2729 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The 05 contract price is 1697 (-11), the basis is - 7 (+21), UR01 is 1652 (-5), UR05 is 1697 (-11), and UR09 is 1678 (-22) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 10976 (-201), UR comprehensive inventory is 131.8 million tons (-4.0), UR factory inventory is 118.0 million tons (-5.5), and UR port inventory is 13.8 million tons (+1.5) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] |

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily urea report dated December 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - Urea futures oscillated and declined, closing at 1697 (-7/-0.41%) [3] - Urea spot market saw factory prices continue to rise, but trading volume weakened. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1620 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1590 - 1610 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1650 - 1660 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1590 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On December 19, the daily urea production in the industry was 18.73 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 0.9 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.46%, a decrease of 1.43% compared to 78.89% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the mainstream factory price continued to rise, market sentiment cooled, and new orders were scarce. The industrial compound fertilizer operating rate increased, but raw material and finished - product inventories were high, and orders were few. It is expected that the factory price will remain firm [5] - In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, the factory price followed the decline, and traders stocked up. It is expected that the factory price will remain firm [5] - Around the delivery area, the factory price was firm, the market atmosphere was positive, demand in Northeast China increased, and new orders were smoothly traded. It is expected that the factory price will increase [5] - Domestic gas - based plants started maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 19.4 tons but remained at a high level. India tendered again for 150 tons in total for the east and west coasts with a shipping date in early February. The impact was limited due to no new quotas in China [5] - The compound fertilizer operating rate in the Central Plains and Northeast regions increased seasonally, but in Henan, it stopped due to environmental protection until the end of the month, and overall demand slowed down. The progress of reserve by storage enterprises reached over 70%, and future procurement intensity will gradually slow down [5] - In the medium - term, affected by environmental protection, the compound fertilizer operating rate in Henan, Hebei, and Anhui decreased significantly, and the urea supply - demand fundamentals remained relatively loose. After the price increase in some regions, downstream acceptance decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of phosphate fertilizer prices on the urea market sentiment [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short 05 [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "High - price Resistance, Urea Weakly Pulls Back" and is from the Chemical Research Group of Galaxy Futures Research Institute, written by Zhang Mengchao in December 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Last week's view was that the Indian tender stimulated the rebound of the ex - factory price, while this week's view is that downstream resistance to high prices leads to a weak pull - back of urea. The market sentiment has cooled, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas are weakly stable with weak transactions. In the short term, urea remains firm, but in the long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are still relatively loose, and the price increase is expected to slow down. The trading strategy is to go short unilaterally without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] Group 4: Core Data Changes Supply - In the 50th week of 2025 (20251211 - 1217), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 89.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 52.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.11%. The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 71.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 9.57% [4] Demand - In the 51st week of 2025 (20251212 - 1218), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 percentage points. The urea demand of Shandong Linyi compound fertilizer sample production enterprises was 1580 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons or 15.96%. The arrival volume of urea in Northeast China was 8.2 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from last week. As of December 17, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.24 days, a decrease of 0.7 days or 10.09% from the previous period [4] Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a decrease of 5.45 tons or 4.42% from last week. As of December 18, 2025 (the 51st week), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 tons or 12.20% [4] Valuation - The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was weak, and the decline of Yulin pulverized coal widened. The spot price of urea rebounded, and the production profit of urea expanded. The fixed - bed production broke even, the profit of coal - water slurry production was 100 yuan/ton, and the production profit of entrained - flow bed was 330 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded, the basis was around - 30 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 41 yuan/ton [4] Group 5: Other Data in the Report - The report also includes data tracking on mainstream manufacturers' ex - factory prices, basis, regional spreads, warehouse receipts and spreads, futures spreads between urea and methanol, raw coal prices, production profit, urea/liquid ammonia and synthetic ammonia spreads, urea operating rate, urea production, urea pre - sales, urea inventory, other inventory supply and demand, ratio of urea to other nitrogen fertilizers, compound fertilizer, melamine, urea export, and furniture, etc., but the specific data content is not detailed in the provided text [7][14][21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the inventory reduction pattern is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased significantly year - on - year, and the operating rate of melamine is stable. The export demand has declined in the short term, and the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be fluctuating and weak [4]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The current daily production and operating rate are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the inventory reduction is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demands are on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased significantly year - on - year, and the operating rate of melamine is stable. The export demand has declined in the short term, and the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1670 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 11, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.7%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons (-38,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract is reduced, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is weakly declining. The industrial demand is on - demand, the inventory is being reduced, the short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate weakly today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The positive factor is inventory reduction; the negative factors are domestic oversupply and the continuous new high of daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1670 (-20), the Shandong spot price is 1700 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1670 (0), and the FOB China price is 2731 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 05 contract is 1681 (-2), the basis is - 11 (-18), the price of UR01 is 1629 (4), the price of UR05 is 1681 (-2), and the price of UR09 is 1687 (-11) [6]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons (-38,000 tons), the number of warehouse receipts is 11,245 (-51) [6]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. The production capacity growth rates in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 8.9%, 15.5%, 11.4%, 8.4%, 14.1%, and 13.5% respectively. The consumption growth rates in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 12.8%, 17.9%, 2.6%, 0.3%, 5.9%, and 8.4% respectively. The import dependence showed a downward trend [9].

Report Information - Report Name: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined due to the shutdown of some western plants, and the comprehensive inventory has decreased with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly increased year - on - year, and the winter storage demand is strong, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate weakly today [5]. Summary by Section Urea Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand**: Current daily production and operating rate have a slight decline. The comprehensive inventory has decreased, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demands are on - demand, the compound fertilizer operating rate has increased year - on - year, and winter storage demand is strong. The domestic market is still oversupplied [5]. - **Base Spread**: The base spread of the UR2601 contract is 52, and the premium/discount ratio is 3.1%, showing a bullish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.396 million tons (- 68,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is weakly declining. Industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is being de - stocked, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate weakly today [5]. Urea Overview - **Positive Factors**: Inventory de - stocking [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic oversupply and continuous new high in daily production [6]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1710 (+ 10), the Henan spot price is 1690 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2763 [7]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1638 (- 7), the base spread is 52 (+ 7), the price of the UR05 contract is 1703 (- 10), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1716 (- 5) [7]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 11,652 (+ 424), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.396 million tons, the UR factory inventory is 1.291 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 105,000 tons [7]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term industrial compound fertilizer has high operation rate and continuous demand. There are still some reserve gaps, and the urea factory inventory may still show a slight downward trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1680 in the short term [2]. - The reserve demand has temporarily stopped to wait and see due to the too - fast increase in urea prices. The compound fertilizer operation rate has increased month - on - month, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to show a narrow increase. With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand gradually increases [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1645 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 68 yuan/ton, up 0.644 yuan; the position volume is 142,791 lots, down 7,855 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5,324; the exchange warehouse receipt is 11,228 sheets, down 249 sheets [2]. Spot Market - The prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1720 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively; the price in Shandong is 1700 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The main contract basis is 55 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - FOB Baltic is 352.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 391.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 129.05 million tons, down 7.34 million tons [2]. - The urea enterprise operation rate is 81.83%, down 1.88%; the daily urea output is 197,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operation rate is 40.53%, up 3.47%; the melamine operation rate is 61.66%, up 0.86% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 56 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 29 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 billion tons, up 753.8 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,100 tons, up 600 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2342 billion tons, down 563,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36% [2]. - As of December 4, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5%. There are expectations of continuous container collection for exports, but due to restrictions such as the flow of goods and factory inspections, the current container collection rhythm is still slow, and the arrival volume at most ports has not been concentrated [2]. - As of December 4, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3851 billion tons, down 319,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%; the capacity utilization rate is 81.83%, down 1.88% from the previous period, and the trend continues to decline [2]. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operation rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined due to the shutdown of some western plants, and the comprehensive inventory has decreased with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly increased year - on - year, and the winter storage demand is strong, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea main contract will show a weak and downward trend today, and the market will fluctuate weakly [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate down, inventory down, demand on - demand, winter storage strong, but overall oversupply, spot 1680 (-10), fundamentals neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 37, and the premium/discount ratio is 2.2%, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 139.6 million tons (-6.8), which is bearish [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is weakly downward, industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is de - stocking, and the domestic oversupply is obvious. It is expected to fluctuate weakly today [5]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is inventory de - stocking; bearish factors are domestic oversupply and new high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and domestic demand marginal changes [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | Spot delivery product price is 1680 (-10), Shandong spot is 1690 (0), Henan spot is 1680 (0), FOB China is 2765 [7]. | | **Futures** | 01 contract price is 1643 (-3), UR05 is 1711 (1), UR09 is 1721 (-3), basis is 37 (-7) [7]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 11477 (-49), UR comprehensive inventory is 139.6 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 129.1 million tons, UR port inventory is 10.5 million tons [7]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price changed from strong to weak. The supply of urea decreased periodically, with the daily output expected to fluctuate around 19 - 200,000 tons. The demand side saw a steady increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer, and the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline. In the short term, the follow - up of downstream replenishment slowed down after the price increase, and the cost support weakened due to the decline in coal prices. The futures price may have a periodic correction risk. For the UR2601 contract, attention should be paid to the support level around 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand follow - up and export conditions [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Supply decreased periodically, with a weekly urea output of 1.3851 million tons (-2.25%), including 1.1362 million tons of coal - based urea and 0.2489 million tons of gas - based urea, and an average daily output of 198,000 tons. Several gas - head urea enterprises' devices are planned to stop production [5][21]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.53% (a week - on - week increase of 3.47%), and the finished product inventory was 683,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons). The operating rate of melamine was 61.66% (a week - on - week increase of 0.86%) [34]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 1.2905 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,400 tons. Port inventory was 105,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises were 7.35 days (a week - on - week increase of 0.7 days) [31]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the sentiment in the coal market weakened, and the profit of urea increased compared with the previous week [5]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread was strongly running, and the 01 basis strengthened slightly [5]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price was strongly running this week, and charts of market prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Northeast China from 2021 to 2025 were provided [7][8]. - **International Urea Market Price**: The international urea market price decreased, and charts of international urea prices (CFR Brazil, FOB Baltic, FOB Iran, FOB China) from 2019 to 2025 were provided [11][12]. - **Supply**: Supply decreased periodically. The weekly urea output decreased by 2.25%, and several gas - head urea enterprises' devices were planned to stop production, such as Sichuan Lutianhua Co., Ltd., Chongqing Jianfeng Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [17][21]. - **Inventory**: Upstream urea enterprise inventory decreased continuously on a week - on - week basis. Port inventory increased slightly, and the number of days of enterprises' pending orders increased slightly [27][31]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer increased steadily, and the finished product inventory accumulated slightly. The operating rate of melamine increased slightly [33][34]. - **Raw Material End**: This week, the sentiment in the coal market weakened, and charts of prices of various types of coal from 2021 to 2025 were provided [36][37]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread was strongly running, and the 01 basis strengthened slightly. Charts of 1 - 5 spreads and 01 basis from 2021 to 2025 were provided [44][45]. - **Urea - Related Product Spreads**: Charts of spreads between liquid ammonia and urea, ammonium chloride and urea, etc. from 2021 to 2025 were provided [50][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term inventory of urea enterprises is expected to continue to decline slightly due to supply reduction from some gas - head enterprises and the advancement of downstream reserve demand. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1680 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - The operating rate of compound fertilizer has increased month - on - month, and enterprises are continuing to produce winter - storage fertilizers. The short - term capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to show a narrow increase. With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1646 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 64 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 167,074 lots, down 33,279 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 9,772, up 7,116; the exchange warehouse receipts are 11,526, up 1,041 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Anhui are unchanged, the price in Jiangsu is up 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong is down 30 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is 44 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. - FOB Baltic is 352.5 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; FOB China main port is 391.5 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; enterprise inventory is 129.05 million tons, down 7.34 million tons. The enterprise operating rate is 81.83%, down 1.88%; the daily output is 197,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [2]. - The export volume is 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the current monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 40.53%, up 3.47%; the operating rate of melamine is 61.66%, up 0.86%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 56 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 29 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan [2]. - The current monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 billion tons, up 0.7538 billion tons; the current weekly output of melamine is 32,100 tons, up 600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 129.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.38%. As of December 4, the port inventory was 10.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5% [2]. - As of December 4, the production of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3851 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%; the capacity utilization rate was 81.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88% [2].