尿素产业日报 2025-07-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1817 | 5 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 8 | -24 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 191764 | -4185 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -35180 | -6933 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2523 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1800 | 30 河南(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 30 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 30 山东(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 30 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 23 | 5 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 437.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 435 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | ...

【中原化工】 宏观扰动增强，出口需求仍有支撑 ——尿素周报2025.07.21 中原期货研究咨询部 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——宏观扰动增强，出口需求仍有支撑 3 02 品种详情分解 2.1 本周国内尿素市场价格弱势运行 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1月1日 1月17 日 2月2日 2月18 日 3月5日 3月21 日 4月6日 4月22 日 5月8日 5月24 日 6月9日 6月25 日 7月11 日 7月27 日 8月12 日 8月28 日 9月13 日 9月29 日 10 月15 日 10 月31 日 11 月16 日 12 月2日 12 月18 日 山东市场价 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1月1日 1月17 日 2月2日 2月18 日 3月5日 3月21 日 4月6日 4月22 日 5月8日 5月24 日 6月9日 6 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-21 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。虽然国际尿素价格依然偏强，但国内第二批出口配额120吨显 著低于第一批的200万吨，发放不及预期。国内供应方面，日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存 再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求再次转淡。 国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品现货1730（-30），基本面整体 偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差-15，升贴水比例-0.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存124万吨（+5.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market declined weakly. By Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,750 - 1,820 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. Although the second batch of export quotas has been finalized, due to high pricing, the trading volume of small and medium - sized particles is limited, and the suspension of small - package urea exports has weakened market sentiment [6]. - Recently, new plants have been under maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in the daily domestic urea output. With few short - term maintenance plans and some plants restarting, the output is likely to increase. Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly, with only a small amount of demand for top - dressing in some areas, providing limited rigid support. As the production of autumn fertilizers is approaching, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is rising steadily but slowly due to factors such as frequent raw material price fluctuations and inactive downstream purchasing. The operating rate of melamine has also rebounded, but weak downstream demand may limit further increases. Some urea enterprises' inventories are decreasing rapidly as export orders are being executed. Although local inventories vary, the overall inventory is decreasing, but it is still much higher than the same period in previous years. As the execution of previous export orders nears the end, the inventory reduction speed may slow down, but export expectations still support the price [6]. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1,720 - 1,780 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market declined weakly this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,750 - 1,820 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. The second - batch export quota had limited impact on trading volume due to high pricing, and the suspension of small - package urea exports weakened market sentiment [6]. - **Market Outlook**: New plant maintenance led to a slight decrease in daily output, but with few short - term maintenance plans and some plants restarting, output is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is slow, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer and melamine enterprises is rising but may be limited by downstream demand. Export orders are being executed, leading to inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction speed may slow down later, and export expectations support the price [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1,720 - 1,780 yuan [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [10]. - As of July 18, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 25 [12]. - As of July 18, there were 2,523 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 122 from last week [20]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 17, the mainstream price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 1,800 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [26]. - As of July 17, the FOB price of urea in China was 410 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - As of July 17, the urea basis was 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of July 16, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of July 17, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.51 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.14 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. - **Industry** - As of July 17, China's urea output was 1.3687 million tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons from last week, a week - on - week decline of 0.95%. The average daily output was 195,500 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week. The urea capacity utilization rate was 84.46%, a week - on - week decline of 0.80%. Next cycle, the output is likely to increase [41]. - As of July 17, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 541,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 10.63%. As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 7.46% [45]. - In May 2025, urea exports were 2,436.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%, and the average export price was 209.07 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.54% [48]. - **Downstream** - As of July 17, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 32.55%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.24% on average this week, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from last week [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. International urea prices are strong, but the domestic market still has a significant oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations [4]. - The main logic of the market is the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand, with the main risk point being changes in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Recently, the urea futures market has been volatile. International geopolitical fluctuations have led to a tight supply of urea, and the Indian tender price is expected to rise further, making international urea prices strong. Domestically, the operating rate has declined but remains high, and overall inventory is still high. In terms of demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has been continuously declining, and the operating rate of melamine has also decreased. Agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The domestic urea market still has a significant oversupply, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the deliverable is 1830 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 979, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong [5]. - **Negative Factors**: High daily production from high - level operations and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the deliverable is 1830 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1830 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1830 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2582 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | UR09 contract price is 1733 (+2), UR01 is 1710 (+3), UR05 is 1727 (+4), and the basis of the UR09 contract is 97 (-2) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 2630 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.24 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 1.035 million tons, and UR port inventory is 205,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing. For example, in 2018, it was 2245.5, and in 2025E, it is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% compared to 2024. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes over the years [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The domestic daily urea production has increased due to the resumption of previously overhauled plants, and the short - term urea operating rate may remain high because of substantial production profits [2]. - The country is gradually entering the off - season of agricultural demand, with only a small amount of demand for top - dressing in some local areas. The compound fertilizer enterprises have good pre - sales for the autumn season, leading to an increase in their operating rate and procurement; the melamine operating rate has rebounded, but weak downstream demand may restrict its further increase [2]. - Recent urea export orders are still being executed, and the inventory of some urea enterprises is decreasing rapidly. Although local inventories vary, the overall inventory is mainly decreasing. However, the current urea enterprise inventory is much higher than the same period in previous years. As the increase in agricultural demand decreases and the execution of previous export orders enters the later stage, the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down [2]. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1720 - 1770 yuan/ton [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1733 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is 23 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 197,633 lots, a decrease of 3,755 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 20,853, an increase of 3,554 [2]. - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts is 2,630, unchanged [2]. 2. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have all decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 57 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged at 427.5 dollars/ton and 410 dollars/ton respectively [2]. 3. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 48.9 million tons, an increase of 4.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 96.77 million tons, a decrease of 5.08 million tons [2]. - The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.94%; the daily urea production is 197,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 0, unchanged; the monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, a decrease of 261,890 tons [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 29.83%, an increase of 0.58%; the melamine operating rate is 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with purchased urea is - 646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 216 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 billion tons, a decrease of 640,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. 5. Industry News - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons from last week, a 7.46% decrease [2]. - As of July 10, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 489,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from last week, an 11.14% increase [2]. - As of July 10, the Chinese urea output is 1.3818 million tons, an increase of 1.53 tons from last week, a 1.12% increase; the average daily output is 197,400 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.94% [2]. 6. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that due to the resumption of production in previously overhauled units, the daily output of domestic urea has increased, and the short - term urea operating rate may remain high. As the agricultural demand season is approaching, only local agricultural top - dressing has a small amount of demand. The autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizer enterprises are good, leading to an increase in the operating rate and procurement. The operating rate of melamine has recovered, but weak downstream demand may limit its further increase. Recently, the shipment of urea factories varies significantly, and inventory changes are mixed. Last week, the overall inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, and some urea factories continued to execute previous export orders. However, this week, the industrial demand is expected to weaken further, the increase in agricultural demand is decreasing, and as the execution of previous export orders enters the later stage, the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down. The unexpectedly high urea tender price in India boosts the confidence of the domestic market. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the release time, quantity, and allocated enterprises of the second batch of urea export quotas. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1720 - 1750 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1731 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 201,388 lots, an increase of 3,396 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 24,407 lots, a decrease of 2,450 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 2,630, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1790, 1840, 1840, 1810, and 1850 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 20, 10, 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the Chinese main port were 427.5 and 410 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory was 48.9 tons (weekly), an increase of 4.9 tons; the enterprise inventory was 96.77 tons (weekly), a decrease of 5.08 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises was 85.26% (weekly), an increase of 0.94%; the daily output of urea was 197,400 tons (weekly), an increase of 2,200 tons [2]. - The export volume of urea was 0, unchanged; the monthly output of urea was 6,031,340 tons, a decrease of 261,890 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 29.83% (weekly), an increase of 0.58%; the operating rate of melamine was 62.56% (weekly), a decrease of 0.43% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer was 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine (using externally - purchased urea) was - 646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 216 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 416.82 tons, a decrease of 64.08 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons from the previous week, a 4.99% decrease [2]. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.94%, a 0.55% increase [2]. - As of July 10, the weekly output of Chinese urea was 138.18 tons, an increase of 1.53 tons from the previous week, a 1.12% increase; the average daily output was 19.74 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons [2]. 4. Suggested Focus The report suggests paying attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a strong upward trend. Recently, urea enterprises had a mix of device maintenance and复产, and the supply was expected to decline in the short - term and then recover. On the demand side, there was an expected marginal weakening of agricultural top - dressing demand. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased slightly, and the start - up was expected to gradually recover from a low level after the second half of the month, with finished product inventory still in the process of de - stocking. Regarding exports, export expectations were frequently disturbed recently, and the domestic - foreign price difference remained high. The domestic urea port inventory had increased to 48.9 tons month - on - month. Overall, agricultural demand replenishment and export release drove the continuous de - stocking of urea enterprise inventory. Macro and export expectations strongly disturbed the futures market. In the short term, the urea futures price might continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The upper resistance level of the UR2509 contract was around 1,780 - 1,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Device maintenance and复产 coexisted, and supply was expected to decline in the short - term and then recover [4]. - **Demand**: Attention should be paid to the pre - sales and start - up of autumn fertilizers. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased slightly, and the start - up of melamine decreased [4][34]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory continued to increase, and the inventory pressure of urea enterprises eased. Urea enterprise inventory was 96.77 tons (month - on - month decrease of 5.08 tons), port inventory was 48.9 tons (month - on - month increase of 4.9 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (month - on - month increase of 10.82%) [4][31]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and urea profits increased month - on - month [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the 09 basis changed little [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price showed a strong upward trend this week [6]. - **International Urea Price**: International urea prices increased significantly [10]. - **Supply**: The weekly urea production was 138.18 tons (+1.12%), including 107.23 tons of coal - based urea production (+0.21%) and 30.95 tons of gas - based urea production (+4.42%), with an average daily output of 19.7 tons. Some enterprises had planned maintenance [16][20][24]. - **Inventory**: As mentioned above, port inventory increased and enterprise inventory decreased [27][31]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 29.83% (+0.58%), and the finished product inventory was 67.26 tons (month - on - month increase of 0.62 tons). The start - up rate of melamine was 62.56% (-0.22%) [34]. - **Raw Material End**: Coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend [36]. - **Profit**: The production profit of urea fixed - bed and water - coal slurry devices was analyzed, and the profit increased month - on - month [42][43]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the 09 basis changed little [45]. - **Urea - related Product Spread**: The spreads between urea and related products such as liquid ammonia and ammonium chloride were analyzed [54].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term urea operating rate may remain high due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled units and relatively high production profits. The country is gradually entering the off - season of agricultural demand, with only a small amount of local agricultural top - dressing demand. The autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizer enterprises are good, leading to an increase in the operating rate and procurement. The melamine operating rate has rebounded, but weak downstream demand may limit its further increase. Recently, the shipment of urea factories has shown obvious differences, and inventory changes vary. The overall inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline last week, and some factories are still fulfilling previous export orders. However, this week, the industrial demand is expected to weaken further, the increase in agricultural demand is decreasing, and the execution of previous export orders is approaching the end, so the overall de - stocking speed of urea may slow down. The Indian urea tender price far exceeds market expectations, boosting domestic market confidence. Short - term attention should be paid to the release time, quantity, and allocated enterprises of the second batch of urea export quotas. The UR2509 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract is 1764 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 33 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position of the main contract is 197,992 lots, up 206 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,957; the exchange warehouse receipts are 2630 sheets, down 15 sheets [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Henan, it is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 1820 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Anhui, it is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main Zhengzhou urea contract is 56 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 427.5 dollars/ton, up 32.5 dollars; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 410 dollars/ton, up 27.5 dollars [2] Industrial Situation - Port inventory is 48.9 million tons, up 4.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 96.77 million tons, down 5.08 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.26%, up 0.94 percentage points; the daily urea output is 197,400 tons, up 2200 tons. The urea export volume is 0. The monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 29.83%, up 0.58 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 62.56%, down 0.43 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 134 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 646 yuan/ton, down 216 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 billion tons, down 640,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,000 tons, down 300 tons [2] Industry News - As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 96.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.08 million tons or 4.99%. As of July 10, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points. As of July 10, China's urea output was 1.3818 billion tons, an increase of 1530 tons or 1.12% from the previous week, with an average daily output of 197,400 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 percentage points [2] Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. International urea prices are strong, but the domestic market still has a significant oversupply, and export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently. International supply is tight due to geopolitical factors, and Indian tender prices are expected to rise further, leading to strong international urea prices. Domestically, the operating rate has declined but remains high, and overall inventory is still high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have continued to decline, and agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The domestic urea market still has a clear oversupply, and export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 67, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.186 million tons (+65,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high daily production at the operating rate and weak domestic demand. The main logic is the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (-10), Shandong spot is 1850 (-20), Henan spot is 1840 (0), and FOB China is 2581 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 09 contract is 1773 (0), UR01 is 1734 (0), and UR05 is 1738 (0). The basis of the UR09 contract is 67 (-10) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in production capacity, with growth rates ranging from 8.9% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown various trends. For example, in 2024, production capacity reached 44.185 million tons with a growth rate of 13.5%, production was 34.25 million tons, net imports were 3.6 million tons, and apparent consumption was 37.85 million tons [10].