1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of a continued decrease in urea production is high, with the short - term forecast for the UR2601 contract to fluctuate between 1590 - 1650 yuan/ton. Agricultural urea sales have increased slightly, while compound fertilizer companies are reducing inventory and maintaining low开工率. Domestic urea enterprise inventory has only increased slightly [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1621 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 70 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main contract position is 312,046 hands, down 121 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 41,450, down 526; the exchange warehouse receipt is 5,556 sheets, down 501 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Urea prices in Hebei are 1580 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1540 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Jiangsu 1550 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Shandong 1540 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and Anhui 1560 yuan/ton (unchanged). The main contract basis is - 69 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. FOB Baltic is 370 dollars/ton (unchanged), and FOB China Main Port is 385 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 44.6 million tons, up 3.1 million tons; enterprise inventory is 161.54 million tons, up 17.15 million tons. The urea enterprise开工率 is 80.64%, down 5.02%; daily production is 188,600 tons, down 11,800 tons. Urea exports are 137 million tons, up 57 million tons; monthly production is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer开工率 is 24.18%, down 1.32%; the melamine开工率 is 55.18%, down 10.29%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 167 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine (external urea procurement) is 228 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Monthly compound fertilizer production is 466.18 million tons, down 65.15 million tons; weekly melamine production is 27,400 tons, down 2,600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 22, enterprise inventory increased by 0.92% week - on - week; as of October 16, port inventory increased by 7.47% week - on - week. As of October 16, production decreased by 5.01% week - on - week, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreased by 4.25% week - on - week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high inventory of urea enterprises exerts significant pressure on the urea market. The short - term forecast for the UR2601 contract is a price fluctuation between 1590 - 1650 yuan/ton. As the urea price drops below the previous low of the year, downstream buyers' enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices has increased, and they are advised to buy on dips. However, due to the weak market trading atmosphere and slow urea shipment, the probability of a further decrease in production is high, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may remain low [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1609 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 312,167 lots, down 10,020 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 40,924 lots, up 2,398 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,057 lots, down 181 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Anhui decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained stable. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 69 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 44.6 tons, up 3.1 tons week - on - week; enterprise inventory is 161.54 tons, up 17.15 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, down 5.02 percentage points; the daily output is 188,600 tons, down 11,800 tons. The urea export volume is 137 tons, up 57 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 24.18%, down 1.32 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 55.18%, down 10.29 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 167 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 65.15 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 466.18 tons, and the weekly output of melamine is 27,400 tons, down 2,600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, up 17.15 tons week - on - week, a 11.88% increase. As of October 16, the port inventory was 44.6 tons, up 3.1 tons week - on - week, a 7.47% increase. The production of Chinese urea enterprises was 132.05 tons, down 6.97 tons, a 5.01% decrease, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, down 4.25 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand, and the market situation is bearish. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today. Although international urea prices are strong, they have limited support for domestic prices, and both industrial and agricultural demands are weak [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a high level, and comprehensive inventory has significantly accumulated. Both industrial and agricultural demands are weak. The price difference between domestic and foreign exports is large, but it has limited support for domestic prices. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly [5]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong [6]. - **Negative Factors**: High operating daily production, weak domestic demand, and continued inventory accumulation [6]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. Specific Indicators - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -52, and the premium/discount ratio is -3.4%, indicating a bearish trend [5]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 2.061 million tons (+203,000 tons), showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish outlook [5]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The price of the delivery - grade spot is 1,550 (unchanged) [5]. - **Futures**: The UR01 contract price is 1,602 (unchanged), the UR05 contract price is 1,672 (unchanged), and the UR09 contract price is 1,705 (unchanged) [7]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 6,294 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 2.061 million tons (+203,000 tons), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.615 million tons, and UR port inventory is 446,000 tons [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of urea from 2018 to 2025E, including data on capacity, capacity growth rate, production, net imports, import dependence, apparent consumption, ending inventory, actual consumption, and consumption growth rate. For example, in 2019, the capacity was 24.455 million tons, with a growth rate of 8.9%, and the production was 22.4 million tons [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic urea market is currently characterized by a loose supply - demand situation. Although the export window is about to close and the impact on the domestic market sentiment is limited, the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support. With the end of autumn fertilizer demand in North and Central China, the overall demand is declining. In the short term, the domestic demand remains limited, and the spot market sentiment is still low. The fundamental situation is still loose, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1600 (unchanged, 0% change) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices were stable to slightly lower, and the trading volume was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1490 - 1500 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1400 - 1470 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On October 20th, the daily urea production in the industry was 182,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous working day and a decrease of 6600 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.99%, a decrease of 6.83 percentage points compared to 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Market Sentiment and Price Forecast**: In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory price led the decline, and the market sentiment was average. It is expected that the ex - factory price will be weakly stable. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the ex - factory price followed the decline. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory price was weakly stable, and it is expected to decline mainly. - **Supply and Demand**: Some plants were under maintenance, and the average daily production decreased to around 187,000 tons. On the demand side, the result of the Indian tender was about to be announced. Although the price difference between domestic and foreign markets was large, the export window was about to close. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China was basically over, the grass - roots stocking was coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants declined, and the demand for raw materials was low. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 170,000 tons to around 1.61 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Short on rebounds. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1580 - 1630 yuan/ton. High inventory exerts significant pressure on the urea market. With the urea price falling below the previous low of the year, downstream buyers are more enthusiastic about replenishing at low prices, and they are maintaining a strategy of buying on dips. However, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and urea shipments have slowed down. The probability of a further decrease in production is relatively high. The agricultural demand in the north has been postponed, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may remain low in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 322,187 lots, an increase of 8,441 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 43,322 lots, a decrease of 3,148 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,238 lots, a decrease of 56 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1590 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan is 1550 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jiangsu is 1560 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong is 1560 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton), and in Anhui is 1570 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 370 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 385 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 44.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47%. The enterprise inventory is 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, a decrease of 5.02%. The daily urea output is 188,600 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons. The urea export volume is 80 tons, an increase of 23 tons. The monthly urea output is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32%. The melamine operating rate is 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 167 yuan/ton, and the monthly output of compound fertilizer is 531.33 tons, a decrease of 19 tons. The weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is 109.21 yuan/ton, and the weekly output of melamine is 27,400 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. As of October 16, the port inventory was 44.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47%. As of October 16, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 132.05 tons, a decrease of 6.97 tons compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market rose slightly from a low level. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong increased to 1,520 - 1,580 yuan/ton, with the average price up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price remained mostly in a stalemate and fluctuated according to actual demand and sentiment later [5]. - Recently, some domestic urea plants have shut down, and no shutdown plants have resumed production, leading to a significant decrease in production. Next week, it is expected that 2 enterprises' plants will plan to shut down, and 6 - 7 shutdown plants may resume production. Considering possible short - term enterprise failures, the probability of a further decrease in production is relatively high [5]. - Continuous rainfall in the north has postponed agricultural demand, reducing the flow of urea. More compound fertilizer enterprises' plants have reduced their loads and shut down. In the short term, enterprises will continue to reduce inventory, and the plant operating rate may remain at a low level [5]. - As the urea price has fallen below the previous low of the year, downstream enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices has increased, maintaining the strategy of buying on dips. Due to the weak market trading atmosphere, urea transportation has slowed down, and the inventory of urea enterprises has continued to accumulate this week. High inventory exerts great pressure on the urea market [5]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,580 - 1,630 in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market rose slightly from a low level this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong increased to 1,520 - 1,580 yuan/ton, with the average price up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Production is likely to continue to decline. Agricultural demand is postponed, and compound fertilizer enterprises' operating rates are low. Downstream replenishment enthusiasm at low prices has increased, but high inventory pressures the market [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,580 - 1,630 in the short term [5]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of October 17, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 70 [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Warehouse Receipt Trend**: As of October 17, there were 6,294 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 723 from last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of October 16, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,560 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu it was 1,560 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of October 16, the FOB China price of urea was 385 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - **Basis Trend**: As of October 16, the urea basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of October 15, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 16, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.93 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.32 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of October 16, China's urea production was 132.05 million tons, down 6.97 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, down 4.25% from the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [41]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 44.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.1 million tons, a growth rate of 7.47%. As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 million tons, an increase of 17.15 million tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 11.88% [44]. - **Export Situation**: In August 2025, China's urea export volume was 79.67 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.46% and a year - on - year increase of 3,024.31%. From January to August 2025, China's total urea exports were 144.11 million tons, an increase of 119.66 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 489.41% [47]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Operating Rates**: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points week - on - week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29 percentage points from last week [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea supply level has little fluctuation, with daily output around 200,000 tons. After the holiday, due to the start - up of device maintenance in individual enterprises in Ningxia and Shanxi, and the continuous shutdown and transformation of enterprises in Jincheng, Shanxi, the output continues to decline. Domestic agricultural demand has a slight increase but no obvious improvement overall. Industrial demand is relatively stable. The autumn fertilizer production of compound fertilizers is in the later stage, and the demand in most parts of North China is weakening. The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly. India's RCF has issued a new round of international urea import tenders, but due to the approaching end of China's export window period and the unclear export policy, the impact on the domestic urea market needs continuous tracking. The domestic enterprises still face high - inventory pressure. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,580 - 1,630 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1,597 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 74 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The main contract's position is 321,992 lots, down 4,162 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 44,696. The exchange's warehouse receipts are 6,570, down 347 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1,570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Henan, it is 1,520 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 1,530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Shandong, it is 1,550 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Anhui, it is 1,550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is - 47 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. FOB Baltic is 370 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 385 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 415,000 tons, down 38,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1,443,900 tons, up 212,200 tons. The urea enterprise's operating rate is 85.66%, up 0.08%. The daily urea output is 200,400 tons, up 200 tons. The urea export volume is 800,000 tons, up 23. The monthly urea output in September 2025 is 5,747,700 tons, 181,200 tons less than last month and 110,900 tons more than the same period [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer's operating rate is 25.5%, down 6.96%. The melamine's operating rate is 65.47%, up 3.95%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 177 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with outsourced urea is 31 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5,313,300 tons, up 1,092,100 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,000 tons, up 1,800 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 144.39 million tons, up 17.23% from last week. The port inventory is 41.5 million tons, down 8.39% from last week. In September 2025, China's urea output is 5.7477 million tons, 181,200 tons less than last month and 110,900 tons more than the same period. The daily urea output has a slight decline, but it remains above 190,000 tons in the short term [2] 3.6 Tip for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic agricultural demand is scattered, with a slight increase in local demand but no obvious improvement overall; industrial demand is stable, and the autumn fertilizer production of compound fertilizers is in the later stage, with demand in most parts of North China weakening, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers will continue to decline slightly [2] - India's RCF has issued a new round of international urea import tenders, but due to the approaching end of China's export window period and the unclear export policy, the impact of this round of Indian tenders on the domestic urea market needs continuous tracking [2] - The rigid demand progress is still tepid, and domestic enterprises still face high inventory pressure. The short - term fluctuation range of the UR2601 contract is expected to be between 1,580 and 1,630 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1,610 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13; the 1 - 5 spread is - 68 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,5954 [2] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 326,154 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 12,710; the net position of the top 20 is - 45,149 [2] - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts is 6,917, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1,600 yuan/ton, 1,530 yuan/ton, 1,550 yuan/ton, 1,530 yuan/ton, and 1,560 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of 0, - 10, - 10, - 20, and - 10 [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 80 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 33 [2] - FOB Baltic is 370 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10; FOB China's main port is 385 US dollars/ton, with no change [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 41.5 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.8 tons; enterprise inventory is 144.39 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.22 tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08%; the daily urea output is 200,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 200 tons [2] - Urea export volume is 80 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 23; the monthly urea output in September 2025 is 5,928,680 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 123,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 25.5%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.96%; the melamine operating rate is 65.47%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.95% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 177 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 9; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is 31 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12 [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 531.33 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 109.21 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,800 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 144.39 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.22 tons and a week - on - week growth rate of 17.23%. The inventory of urea enterprises has risen to a high level this cycle [2] - As of October 9, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 41.5 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.8 tons and a week - on - week decline rate of 8.39%. The departure speed of port goods has accelerated this cycle [2] - In September 2025, China's urea output is 5.7477 million tons, 181,200 tons less than last month and 110,900 tons more than the same period. There are many enterprises planning to overhaul this month, and the output will continue to decline [2] 3.6 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.10.10」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1580-1650区间波动。 3 行情回顾：节后国内尿素市场整体看空氛围加剧，主流区域工厂迫于销售压力不断下调报盘，部 分企业价格跌破1500元/吨，然低价对下游吸引力度有限。 行情展望：近期国内尿素供应水平波动不大，日产量维持20万吨附近波动，节后因宁夏、山西个 别企业启动装置检修，尿素日产略有下降，但短期日均产量依旧在19万吨以上水平。国内农业需 求较为零散，局部农业需求或有小幅提升，但整体暂无明显起色。工业需求较为平稳，其中复合 肥秋季肥生产进入后期，华北大部需求转淡，企业减负荷停车或进一步增多，预计复合肥产能利 用率维持小幅下降态势。印度RCF再次发布新一轮国际尿素进口招标，但由于我国出口窗口期即 将结束，且后期出口政策暂不明朗，因此此轮印标对国内尿素市场的影响仍需持续跟踪。刚需推 进依旧不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend this week. With the expected resumption of production of overhauled devices of multiple urea enterprises in late September, the daily urea production is expected to return to a high - level in late September. On the demand side, as the autumn fertilizer production nears its end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has gradually declined, and the finished product inventory has slightly decreased but remains at a relatively high level year - on - year. In the short term, due to the increase in supply pressure and weak demand, the urea inventory has been continuously accumulating. With uncertainties in Indian tenders and export expectations, the futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders, macro - impacts, and export changes. For the UR2601 contract, pay attention to the support level performance around 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Summary - **Supply**: The daily urea production has significantly rebounded, with the weekly urea output at 1401500 tons (+5.38%), including 1108600 tons of coal - based urea and 292900 tons of gas - based urea, with an average daily output of 200000 tons. Multiple enterprises are scheduled for maintenance in October [4][19][23]. - **Demand**: The support from autumn fertilizer is limited. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 35.27% (-3.36%), and the finished product inventory is 791700 tons (a decrease of 8100 tons compared to the previous period). The operating rate of melamine is 60.58% (+3.80%). Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders [4][32]. - **Inventory**: Upstream urea enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. The factory inventory is 1218200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52900 tons. The port inventory is 496300 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 19700 tons). The mainstream pre - sale days of urea enterprises are 6.71 days (a week - on - week increase of 0.53 days) [4][25][29]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices continue to be strong, and urea profits have decreased compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread has slightly narrowed, and the 01 basis has changed little [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price showed a weak trend this week [6]. - **International Urea Market Price**: The international urea market price has been adjusted downward [10]. - **Production and Maintenance**: The weekly urea output has increased, and multiple enterprises have planned maintenance in October [19][23]. - **Raw Material End**: Coal prices continue to be strong [34]. - **Urea - Related Product Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread has slightly narrowed, and the 01 basis has changed little [43].