Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season, and reserve demand has not started significantly. The domestic market trading activity is low, providing limited support to the urea market. Industrial demand improvement is less than expected. Although the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded month - on - month, enterprises mainly produce based on sales, and the short - term adjustment of the start - up rate is expected to be limited. Last week, enterprise inventories varied, but overall inventory increased. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, urea exports continued to accelerate. Some enterprises' inventories decreased due to fulfilling export orders, while those without exports saw slow inventory growth due to the slow progress of domestic demand. Due to the low domestic market trading sentiment, the urea shipment speed is affected, and short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1700 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1686 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 51 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 277334 lots, down 7644 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 43212; the exchange warehouse receipt is 8279 pieces, down 334 pieces [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1670 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1640 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), 1640 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), 1650 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), and 1650 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The main contract basis is - 36 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 396.5 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and FOB China main port is 423.5 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.94 million tons, down 7.15 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 113.27 million tons, up 3.77 million tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate is 79.34%, up 1.24%; the daily urea output is 185600 tons, up 2900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 million tons, up 50%; the monthly output is 5928680 tons, down 123400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 37.82%, up 4.74%; the melamine start - up rate is 55.38%, down 3.6%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 165 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 16 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 531.33 million tons, up 109.21 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27500 tons, down 800 tons [2] Industry News - As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 113.27 million tons, up 3.77 million tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. As of September 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 54.94 million tons, down 7.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.52%. As of September 11, some recently shut - down urea production devices in China have resumed, and the domestic daily urea output has increased. This week, it is expected that 1 enterprise will plan to shut down and 5 - 6 shut - down enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the output may increase [2] Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate on Thursday [2]

尿素产业日报 2025-09-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1683 | 20 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -48 | 7 7220 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 284978 | -15607 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -46633 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 8613 | -234 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1670 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1650 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1640 | -20 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -43 | -40 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 396.5 | -3.5 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 423.5 | 8.5 | | 产业情况 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market continued its downward trend. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,600 - 1,660 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. In the near future, some idle plants have resumed production, increasing the daily output of domestic urea. Next week, it is expected that 1 enterprise will plan to stop production, and 5 - 6 idle enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the output may increase. The domestic agricultural demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the reserve demand has not started significantly. The trading activity in the domestic market is low, providing limited support for the urea market. The improvement of industrial demand is less than expected. Although the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded week - on - week, enterprises mainly produce based on sales, and the short - term adjustment of the operating rate is expected to be limited. This week, the inventory of enterprises varied, but the overall inventory increased. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, urea exports continued to accelerate. Some enterprises' inventory decreased due to the execution of export orders, while the inventory of non - exporting urea enterprises slowly increased due to the slow progress of domestic demand. Due to the low trading sentiment in the domestic market, the short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,650 - 1,700 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Highlights Summary - **Market Trend**: The domestic urea market continued to decline this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,600 - 1,660 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Some idle plants have resumed production, increasing the daily output of domestic urea. Next week, 1 enterprise is expected to stop production, and 5 - 6 idle enterprises will resume production. The domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the reserve demand has not started significantly. The industrial demand improvement is less than expected. The inventory of enterprises varied, but the overall inventory increased. Urea exports continued to accelerate. The short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,650 - 1,700 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea fluctuated and closed lower, with a weekly decline of 2.92% [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 12, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 55 [14]. - **Open Interest Analysis**: No detailed information provided. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 11, there were 8,897 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 598 from last week [21]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of September 11, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,650 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of September 11, the FOB price of urea in China was 415 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - **Basis**: As of September 11, the urea basis was - 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of September 10, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 11, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.92 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.11 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. 3.3.2 Industry - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of September 11, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 129.93 tons, an increase of 2.03 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%. The capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, an increase of 1.24% from the previous period, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing [40]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.94 tons, a decrease of 7.15 tons week - on - week, a decline of 11.52%. As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 113.27 tons, an increase of 3.77 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.44% [43]. - **Exports**: According to customs data, in July 2025, China's urea export volume was 56.72 tons, a month - on - month increase of 756.80% and a year - on - year increase of 614.36% [46]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Operating Rates**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic compound fertilizer plants was 37.82%, a week - on - week increase of 4.68 percentage points. Next week, enterprises will mainly produce based on sales, and the overall operating rate is expected to be adjusted limitedly. As of September 11, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 55.38%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from last week [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak and continues to decline, while there is a slight increase in agricultural fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizer may reduce short - term replenishment of raw material urea due to previous raw material reserves. Although the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate will gradually recover this week, the overall inventory of urea enterprises mainly increases. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, urea exports are accelerating. Some enterprises' inventory decreases due to export orders, while others' inventory rises slowly due to insufficient domestic demand. The short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend, and the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1700 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1669 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 - 6768; the main contract's open interest is 283,349 lots, an increase of 15,169 lots; the top 20 net open interest is - 42,479; the exchange warehouse receipts are 8897 sheets, an increase of 54 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1670 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1670 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 1670 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively. The main contract's basis is 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan. FOB Baltic is 400 dollars/ton (unchanged), and FOB China's main port is 415 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 62.09 million tons, an increase of 2.09 million tons; enterprise inventory is 109.5 million tons, an increase of 0.92 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.1%, a decrease of 4.29 percentage points; the daily output is 182,700 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The export volume is 57 million tons, an increase of 50 million tons; the monthly output is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 33.08%, a decrease of 6.14 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 58.98%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.3133 million tons, an increase of 1.0921 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.1327 million tons, an increase of 37,700 tons, a 3.44% increase. As of September 4, the port inventory is 620,900 tons, an increase of 20,900 tons, a 3.48% increase. As of September 3, the production of Chinese urea enterprises has decreased, with the daily output down 10,000 tons, the capacity utilization rate down 4.29 percentage points. Some new units are under maintenance, and 3 enterprises are planned to stop production this week, with 2 - 4 stopped enterprises to resume production [2] 3.6 Tip for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are still at a relatively high level, with overall high inventory. The domestic urea market remains in a state of significant oversupply, while export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations. The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The main factors affecting the market are the strong international prices and weak domestic demand, with the main risk being changes in export policies [5]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - Recently, the urea futures market has experienced a volatile decline. Previously, the market was affected by rumors of relaxed urea export policies, leading to a rise in futures prices, but market sentiment has since cooled. The current daily production and operating rate remain high, and inventory is generally at a high level. In terms of demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are at a medium level, while agricultural demand is limited. The overall supply of domestic urea significantly exceeds demand, but export profits remain strong [4]. Basis Analysis - The basis of the UR2601 contract is 44, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.5%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive inventory of UR is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the main UR contract is increasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Expectation Analysis - The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong, but export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations, and the domestic market remains in a state of significant oversupply [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: Strong international prices [5]. - Bearish factors: High operating rate and daily production, weak domestic demand [5]. Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the deliverable spot is 1,790 yuan (-0 yuan), the price of Shandong spot is 1,790 yuan (-0 yuan), the price of Henan spot is 1,810 yuan (-0 yuan), and the FOB price in China is 3,031 yuan [6]. Futures Market - The price of the UR01 contract is 1,746 yuan (+3 yuan), the price of the UR05 contract is 1,787 yuan (+3 yuan), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1,677 yuan (+7 yuan) [6]. Inventory Data - The warehouse receipt is 7,205 tons (-0 tons), the comprehensive inventory of UR is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), the factory inventory of UR is 859,000 tons (-0 tons), and the port inventory of UR is 543,000 tons (-0 tons) [6]. Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2,245.5 | | 1,956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4,906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1,660 - 1,680 yuan/ton, with the average price down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week. The short - term price of the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,710 - 1,780 yuan [6]. - Recently, some newly added units have been under maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in the daily output of domestic urea. Next week, it is expected that 2 enterprises will plan to stop production and 3 stopped enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of output reduction is high [6]. - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season, with a slight increasing trend in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizers are mainly for phased replenishment, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. Affected by policies, the adjustment of the enterprise operating rate is limited, but some are expected to increase starting from the 4th [6]. - Domestic demand is advancing slowly, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased slightly. Although some enterprises have export orders next week, due to environmental protection restrictions on shipping, the enterprise inventory is still expected to increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1,660 - 1,680 yuan/ton, with the average price down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Output may decrease; agricultural demand is in an off - season with a slight increase in some areas; industrial demand is mainly for phased replenishment; inventory is expected to increase [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,710 - 1,780 yuan in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Trend**: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.04% [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of August 29, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 45 [13]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Warehouse Receipt Trend**: As of August 29, there were 6,473 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, an increase of 2,400 compared with last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of August 28, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,720 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of August 28, the FOB price of urea in China was 447.5 US dollars/ton, down 2.5 US dollars/ton compared with last week [29]. - **Basis Trend**: As of August 28, the urea basis was - 43 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of August 27, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 28, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 299 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.18 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [37]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of August 28, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 134.92 tons, down 1.19 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the capacity utilization rate was 82.39%, down 1.60% from the previous period, and the trend changed from rising to falling [40]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 60 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.76%. As of August 27, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 108.58 tons, an increase of 6.19 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.05% [43]. - **Export**: In July 2025, China's urea export volume was 56.72 tons, a month - on - month increase of 756.80% and a year - on - year increase of 614.36% [46]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 39.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62 percentage points. It is expected that the adjustment of the enterprise operating rate will be limited in the next period, but some are expected to increase starting from the 4th. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.50%, an increase of 11.90 percentage points compared with last week [49].

Project Category Futures Market - Zhengzhou urea main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1737, down 8 [2] - Zhengzhou urea 1 - 5 spread (daily, yuan/ton): -40, up 4 [2] - Zhengzhou urea main contract open interest (daily, lots): 219820, down 3120 [2] - Zhengzhou urea top 20 net positions: -36223, up 1257 [2] - Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts (daily, sheets): 5123, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Hebei (daily, yuan/ton): 1730, down 40 [2] - Henan (daily, yuan/ton): 1710, down 40 [2] - Jiangsu (daily, yuan/ton): 1710, down 30 [2] - Shandong (daily, yuan/ton): 1700, unchanged [2] - Anhui (daily, yuan/ton): 1730, down 30 [2] - Zhengzhou urea main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): -37, up 8 [2] - FOB Baltic Sea (daily, US dollars/ton): 445, unchanged [2] - FOB China's main port (daily, US dollars/ton): 447.5, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory (weekly, 10,000 tons): 50.1, up 3.7 [2] - Enterprise inventory (weekly, 10,000 tons): 102.39, up 6.65 [2] - Urea enterprise operating rate (weekly, %): 83.99, up 0.77 [2] - Urea daily output (weekly, tons): 194400, up 1700 [2] - Urea export volume (10,000 tons, %): 57, up 50 [2] - Urea production: monthly value (monthly, tons): 6052080, up 20740 [2] Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer operating rate (weekly, %): 40.84, down 2.64 [2] - Melamine operating rate (weekly, %): 46.6, down 3.22 [2] - Weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China (weekly, yuan/ton): 131, up 15 [2] - Weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea (weekly, yuan/ton): -126, down 48 [2] - Compound fertilizer production: monthly value (monthly, 10,000 tons): 422.12, up 5.3 [2] - Melamine production: total weekly value (weekly, tons): 23200, down 1600 [2] Industry News - As of August 20, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 102.39 tons, up 6.65 tons from last week, a 6.95% week - on - week increase [2] - As of August 21, China's urea port sample inventory was 50.1 tons, up 3.7 tons week - on - week, a 7.97% increase [2] - As of August 21, China's urea production enterprise output was 136.11 tons, up 1.25 tons from the previous period, a 0.93% week - on - week increase; capacity utilization was 83.99%, up 0.77% from the previous period, showing a slight upward trend [2] Viewpoint Summary - Due to recent restarts of some plants, domestic urea daily output has slightly increased. Considering short - term enterprise breakdowns, the probability of reduced production is high [2] - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. Industrial compound fertilizer is mainly for phased replenishment, with a decline in enterprise operating rate. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, compound fertilizer capacity utilization is expected to decline slightly, reducing the rigid demand for urea [2] - Domestic demand is weak. Although a few urea enterprises are supported by export orders and breakdowns, overall enterprise inventory is still on the rise. Short - term export news is favorable for reducing urea enterprise inventory, but the decline may be limited due to enterprise purchase restrictions and slow growth in domestic demand [2] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1710 - 1760 in the short term [2] Prompt Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Highlights - The domestic urea market rose this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,730 - 1,770 yuan/ton, with the average price up 45 yuan/ton week-on-week [6]. - The daily output of domestic urea increased slightly due to the restart of some devices. Next week, 4 enterprises are planned to stop production and 1 is expected to resume, with a higher probability of reduced output considering short - term malfunctions [6]. - Domestic agricultural demand is in the seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. Industrial compound fertilizer has phased replenishment, but its capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly, reducing the rigid demand for urea [6]. - Although some urea enterprises' inventories decreased due to export orders and maintenance, the overall enterprise inventory is still on the rise. Short - term export news is beneficial for inventory reduction, but the decline may be limited [6]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan in the short term [6]. Group 2: Futures Market Futures Price - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 0.12% [9]. Inter - Delivery Spread - As of August 22, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 24 [12]. Futures Warehouse Receipt - As of August 15, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 3,573, an increase of 200 compared to last week [21]. Group 3: Spot Market Domestic Spot Price - As of August 21, the mainstream price of urea in Shandong was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was also 1,760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [26]. Foreign Spot Price - As of August 21, the FOB price of Chinese urea was 450 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton compared to last week [29]. Basis - As of August 21, the urea basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. Group 4: Upstream Situation - As of August 20, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [37]. - As of August 21, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.81 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.04 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [37]. Group 5: Industry Situation Capacity Utilization and Output - As of August 21, China's urea production was 136.11 tons, up 1.25 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.93%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.99%, up 0.77% from the previous period [40]. Inventory - As of August 21, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 50.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons, a rise of 7.97% [43]. - As of August 20, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 102.39 tons, an increase of 6.65 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.95% [43]. Export - In June 2025, urea exports were 66,240.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,618.13%; the average export price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4,662.05% [46]. Group 6: Downstream Situation - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84%, down 2.64 percentage points from the previous period and expected to decline slightly next week [49]. - As of August 21, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 46.60%, down 3.22 percentage points from last week [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite weak domestic urea demand, the decline in urea prices has revived downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The unexpectedly high Indian urea tender price has boosted market sentiment, and some plant shutdowns for maintenance have led to a slight decrease in domestic urea enterprise inventory last week. Considering the limited short - term trading volume and weak domestic demand, urea enterprises may accumulate inventory again. The UR2601 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1735 - 1800 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1727 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 29 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 91863 lots, down 17911 lots; the top 20 net positions are - 24437, down 5576; the exchange warehouse receipts are 3823, up 200 [2] 3.2现货市场 - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged at 455 and 460 US dollars/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 7 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 48.3 tons, down 10,000 tons week - on - week; enterprise inventory is 88.76 tons, down 2.97 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.98%, down 1.62%; the daily urea output is 189,800 tons, down 3700 tons. The urea export volume is 7 tons, up 7 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [2] 3.4下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 41.5%, up 2.82%; the melamine operating rate is 61.1%, down 2.4%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 98 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 344 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan. The monthly compound fertilizer output is 4.1682 million tons, down 640,800 tons; the weekly melamine output is 30,300 tons, down 1200 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 6, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 88.76 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.97 tons, or 3.24%. As of August 7, the port sample inventory was 48.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, or 2.03%. As of August 7, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous period, or 1.94%. The capacity utilization rate was 81.98%, a decrease of 1.62% from the previous period [2] 3.6提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

| | | 尿素产业日报 2025-08-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1722 | -6 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -29 | -6 -3222 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 109774 | 1568 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -18861 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 3623 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1760 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1780 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1780 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1730 | -30 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 8 | -24 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 455 | 20 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 460 | 50 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存( ...