Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report - Report Date: February 8, 2026 - Analyst: Yang Honghan - Company: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short term, urea prices are expected to remain stable with support before the Spring Festival, driven by improved spot trading due to pre - holiday order collection and strong expectations for agricultural demand after the Spring Festival. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, mainly a policy - related pressure line, while the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,750 - 1,760 yuan/ton, supported by strong expectations for the 2026 agricultural demand peak season [2][4]. 3. Summary by Section Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion of urea production capacity continued in 2025. The total new production capacity in 2024 was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025 it was 6.64 million tons. In 2026, an additional 6.51 million tons of new capacity is expected, mainly from companies such as Gansu Jingyuan Liuhua (Phase II), Hubei Yingcheng (Yuntu), and Ordos Yiding [25]. - **Production**: From January 29 to February 4, 2026, China's urea production was 1.4692 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.98% or 14,310 tons. Next week, production is expected to reach 1.51 - 1.52 million tons, with an expected increase in the growth rate. The production profit is around the break - even point, and daily production remains at a high level [2][28]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. For example, in Shanxi, the cash - flow cost and full cost of fixed - bed plants have been calculated, and the cost has shown certain stability in recent days [30]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state [35]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. Historical data shows fluctuations in monthly import and export volumes over the years [41]. Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. Different regions have different demand peaks based on crop - growing seasons. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn. For example, by 2025, the cumulative construction of high - standard farmland is expected to reach 1.075 billion mu, with an additional 75 million mu compared to 2022 [47][50]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The capacity utilization rate, production cost, and production profit of compound fertilizers in China show certain trends over time. The factory inventory of 32 chemical enterprises also fluctuates [54][56][57]. - **Melamine**: The production profit, market price, production volume, and capacity utilization rate of melamine in Shandong and China have their own trends [58][59][60]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels in the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports show resilience [61]. Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, China's urea port sample inventory was 165,000 tons, a 14.58% increase from the previous period. As of February 4, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918,500 tons, a 2.79% decrease from the previous week. Overall, spot trading remains moderately active, and urea inventory is expected to enter a phase of volatile adjustment with a slower de - stocking rate [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: In the short term, there is support, and in the medium term, it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips after observing the spot trading volume. The upper pressure level for the 05 contract is 1,830 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the static support level below is 1,750 - 1,760 yuan/ton. - **Inter - period**: In the medium term, it is recommended to go long on the positive spread. - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided for now [5].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - Partial manufacturers' price cuts led to better order collection, with agricultural demand following up and industrial rigid demand declining. It is expected that prices will remain firm before the Spring Festival. In January, some gas - based and technological transformation enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers continued, and manufacturers started pre - holiday order collection. The off - season storage procurement is in the later stage, and 10% of off - season storage supplies are expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer production was slightly affected by environmental protection, but overall it was at a moderately high level. The demand from downstream fertilizer users was approaching, and the shipment improved, with an expected decline in production before the Spring Festival. The melamine plant resumed production, increasing the rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea plants decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. Influenced by the situation in Iran, international urea prices rose. There is no new information on the domestic export quota, and future attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report shows the prices of Shandong and Henan urea small particles, Henan basis, urea main - contract closing price, and price spreads such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 [1][6][7] 2. Urea Output - It presents the weekly urea output and urea plant maintenance loss [19][20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production cost, production profit, and capacity utilization rates (including overall, coal - based, and natural - gas - based) of urea are shown [21][31][34] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - It includes the FOB prices of small - and large - sized urea in the Baltic, Southeast Asia, and China, as well as the price differences and export profits [38][41][51] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of outstanding orders are presented [52][53] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the factory inventory, port inventory, raw - material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, the number of urea warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main urea contract [54][59][62] Strategies - Unilateral: Volatile - Inter - period: Go long on the UR05 - 09 spread at low levels - Inter - commodity: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level compared to the same period. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is falling, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still acceptable, and both agricultural reserve demand and trade demand are good. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have increased significantly. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports. However, the domestic urea market is still in an oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1770 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is 0, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, also neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 108.9 million tons (+0.9), which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral. The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate, with the operating rate continuing to rise, downstream orders being acceptable, reserve demand increasing, and inventory being depleted. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are inventory de - stocking and improved orders. The bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are high year - on - year. With maintenance return, operating rate will rise. Comprehensive inventory is falling, and de - stocking is obvious. Order demand is good despite approaching Spring Festival. Agricultural reserve and trade demands are strong, and industrial demand (compound fertilizers and melamine) has increased. There is a large export price difference, but domestic market is oversupplied. Spot price of delivery product is 1770 (unchanged), and fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: UR2605 contract basis is 0, premium - discount ratio is 0.0%, neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 108.9 million tons (+0.9), bullish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract will fluctuate. Operating rate will continue to rise, downstream orders are acceptable, reserve demand has increased, and inventory is being depleted. UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1770 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1770 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1770 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2935 [6]. | | **Futures** | The price of the 05 contract is 1770 (-17), the basis is 0 (+17), UR01 is 1730 (-24), UR05 is 1770 (-17), and UR09 is 1736 (-19) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The number of warehouse receipts is 11181 (-75), UR comprehensive inventory is 108.9 million tons (unchanged), UR manufacturer inventory is 94.5 million tons (unchanged), and UR port inventory is 14.4 million tons (unchanged) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of domestic urea are neutral, with current daily production and operating rates at high levels compared to the same period. As maintenance work concludes, the operating rate is expected to continue rising. The comprehensive inventory is decreasing, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although the Spring Festival is approaching, order demand is still acceptable, with good agricultural reserve and trade demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have increased significantly. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, and recent downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The UR2605 contract basis is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory stands at 1.089 million tons (+0.009 million tons), which is considered neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, suggesting a bullish trend. The net position of the main UR contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate, with the operating rate continuing to rise, downstream orders remaining acceptable, reserve demand increasing, and inventory de - stocking. The UR is predicted to show a fluctuating trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are high year - on - year. As maintenance work resumes, the operating rate is expected to continue rising. Comprehensive inventory is decreasing, with an obvious de - stocking pattern. Near the Spring Festival, order demand is acceptable, with good agricultural reserve and trade demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have increased significantly. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, and recent downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1770 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2605 contract basis is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.089 million tons (+0.009 million tons), which is considered neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, suggesting a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. The operating rate is expected to continue rising, downstream orders are acceptable, reserve demand is increasing, and inventory is de - stocking. The UR is predicted to show a fluctuating trend today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Likely to Rise**: The inventory is decreasing, and orders are improving [5]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic market is oversupplied [5]. Spot and Futures Market Information | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1770, with no change; the price of Shandong spot is 1770, down 20; the price of Henan spot is 1770, with no change; the FOB China price is 2934 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 05 contract is 1787, down 3; the price of UR01 is 1754, down 4; the price of UR05 is 1787, down 3; the price of UR09 is 1755, down 10. The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 17, up 3 [6]. | | **Inventory** | The number of warehouse receipts is 11,256, down 1,434. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.089 million tons, the UR manufacturer's inventory is 0.945 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 0.144 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 0.2366 billion | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 0.3786 billion | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 0.3783 billion | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 0.3572 billion | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 0.4462 billion | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 0.4465 billion | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 0.514 billion | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] |

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on urea is a correction. The production volume of Chinese urea production enterprises increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly next week. The increase in the next cycle is expected to be limited. [2] - Domestic demand: Mid - stream traders' enthusiasm for chasing high prices has weakened. Before the Spring Festival, mid - stream and compound fertilizer factories are expected to make rigid purchases, not chasing high prices but buying on dips. Exports currently have a small impact on the urea market. [2] - Overall, spot transactions are neutral. Urea inventory is expected to enter a stage of oscillatory pattern, and the de - stocking speed will slow down. [2] - In the short term, due to weakening macro sentiment and small - scale urea reserve releases suppressing speculative signals, futures and spot prices are expected to correct. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, and the support level is expected to be around 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton. [2] - Unilateral strategy: Weak in the short term and strong in the medium term. It is recommended to observe the spot trading volume and go long on dips. The upper pressure for the 05 contract is 1,830 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton. [2] - Inter - period strategy: The 5 - 9 spread is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to take a long position in the spread on dips in the medium term. [2] - Inter - variety strategy: None for now. [2] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Bo Da, Jin Kai, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices from 2018 - 2026. [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][13][15][16][17][18][19] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025, it was 6.64 million tons. In 2026, the expected new production capacity is 6.51 million tons. [22] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises had maintenance plans from 2025 to 2026, including routine maintenance and loss - based maintenance. [24] Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. Charts show the trends of daily output, capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based urea output from 2018 - 2026. [25][26] Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. Calculations of the full cost and cash - flow cost of fixed - bed factories in Shanxi are provided, along with charts showing the full cost trends of urea in different production processes from 2018 - 2026. [27][28][29][31] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. Charts show the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production processes from 2018 - 2026. [32][33][35][36][37] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. Data on monthly net imports (exports) from 2018 - 2025 are provided, along with charts showing export profits and export volumes. [38][39][40] Domestic Demand Agricultural Rigid Demand - Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. Different regions have different demand patterns for different crops at different times of the year. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. [44][45][47] Industrial Rigid Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: Charts show the trends of capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers from 2019 - 2026. [51][52][53][54] - **Melamine**: Charts show the trends of production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine from 2018 - 2026. [55][56][57] - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. Charts show the trends of export volumes of plywood, OSB, and real - estate construction and completion areas. [58][59][60][61] Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 944,900 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week, a 0.12% decrease. As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 144,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a 7.46% increase. [2][65] International Urea - Charts show the trends of FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price in Brazil from 2018 - 2026. [69][70][71][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on urea is a callback. The macro sentiment has weakened, and the small - scale state reserve release of urea has sent a signal to suppress speculation, so both futures and spot prices are expected to decline in the short term. However, due to the strong expectation of the agricultural demand peak season in 2026, the prices are expected to be stronger in the medium term [2]. - For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, mainly the policy pressure line, and the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton [2]. - The recommended strategies are: short - term weakness and medium - term strength. It is advisable to observe the spot trading volume and go long on dips. The upper pressure for the 05 contract is 1,830 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to take a long position in the positive spread on dips in the medium term; there is no cross - variety strategy for now [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Production Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. The total new production capacity in 2024 was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025 it was 6.64 million tons. In 2026, the planned new production capacity is 6.51 million tons [22]. - **Production**: In the week from January 22 - 28, 2026, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4549 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,100 tons or 2.18%. Next week, the weekly output of Chinese urea is expected to be around 1.47 million tons, with a slight increase. The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily urea output remains at a high level [2][25]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has risen. For example, in the fixed - bed factories in Shanxi, the cash - flow cost and full cost have increased compared with the previous period [27]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state [32]. 3.2 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. The demand for different crops in different regions has different seasonal characteristics [44][45][47]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers show certain trends over time [51][52][53][54]. - **Melamine**: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine also have their own trends [55][56][57]. - **Real Estate - Related**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [58]. 3.3 Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 944,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,100 tons or 0.12%. As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 144,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons or 7.46% [2][65]. 3.4 International Market - The report presents the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [68][69][70][71][72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (urea) is "slightly more long - biased and oscillatory" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The urea price is in a slightly stronger oscillation, and the reference range for the 05 contract is 1,740 - 1,840 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to sell put options [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 rose by 4 yuan to 1,791 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1,740 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 707 lots to 252,000 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 613 lots to 271,900 lots [1] Important Information - **Supply**: On January 26th, the daily urea production was 209,400 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous working day and 14,700 tons from the same period last year. The current start - up rate is 88.95%, a 2.01% increase from 86.94% in the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from last week, a 4.07% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 134,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of compound fertilizer is 40.1%, a 2.9% month - on - month increase, and the start - up rate of melamine is 54.3%, a 6.7% month - on - month increase [1] - **Tender**: On January 2nd, India's NFL urea import tender received 26 suppliers with a total bid of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest bids were from Koch, at CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, urea imports were 35.39 tons, an 82.11% month - on - month decrease, and the average import price was 2,963.69 dollars/ton, a 52.11% month - on - month decrease. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a 53.75% month - on - month decrease, and the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a 56.64% month - on - month decrease [1] - **Oil Price**: The US plans to strengthen sanctions on the oil sectors of some countries, increasing concerns about potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.71 dollars/barrel to 61.07 dollars/barrel, a 2.88% month - on - month increase; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.82 dollars/barrel to 65.88 dollars/barrel, a 2.84% month - on - month increase. China's INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 6.9 to 439.4 yuan/barrel and rose 10.4 to 449.8 yuan/barrel in night trading [1] Market Logic - Last week, the urea enterprise inventory continued to decline slightly. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was 1,680 - 1,720 yuan/ton. New order pre - sales of urea factories improved again, but due to the pre - sales pressure during the Spring Festival holiday, the urea price oscillated slightly stronger [1] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to sell put options [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.23」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1760-1820区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场表现偏弱窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1690- 1740元/吨，均价环比下降25元/吨。各地尿素企业将陆续启动春节收单计划，随着工业需求减弱， 尿素日产逐渐提升，短时行情僵持中窄幅波动为主。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，4-6家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增幅有限。近期苏皖以及其 他区域春节前农业备肥需求持续推进，但增量有限。工业领域维持刚需采购，复合肥本周产能利 用率环比回升，但因成品走货量减少，产能利用率或提升有限，板材开工逐渐下降，工业需求对 尿素支持减弱。本周国内尿素企业库存继续下降，降库主要集中在内蒙古区域，主产销区尿素企 业维持弱 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1775 | 3 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 26 | 0 1676 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 233074 | -2813 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -15068 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 13355 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1750 | -10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1750 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1760 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1750 | -20 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1760 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -22 | -1 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 375 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 405 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 13.4 | -0.6 企业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is a period of sideways consolidation. In the short term, the commodity sentiment has weakened, spot trading has softened, and the futures price has reached a policy - pressured level, leading to a short - term price correction. However, due to the strong expectations of agricultural demand, the correction range is expected to be limited, and the medium - term trend remains bullish [2]. - The fundamentals of urea have seen a phased improvement on the demand side, with continuous procurement from reserves and the grassroots level. The driving force is slightly bullish, and whether the driving force can strengthen further depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking [2]. - For the 05 contract, the fundamental resistance level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, mainly a policy - pressure line. The fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton, supported by the strong expectations of the 2026 agricultural demand peak season [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation - The report presents multiple charts related to urea valuation, including basis (e.g., ZhengYuan basis, BoDa basis), monthly spreads (e.g., 5 - 9 monthly spread, 1 - 5 monthly spread), and domestic and international spot prices. These data can help investors understand the price relationships and market trends of urea [5][9][14][18] 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new capacity was 392 million tons, while in 2025, it reached 664 million tons. For 2026, the expected new capacity is 651 million tons [22]. 3.2.2 Production - From January 8 - 14, 2026, China's urea production was 1.4051 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons or 2.44%. Next week, the weekly production is expected to be around 1.4 - 1.41 million tons, with only minor fluctuations. The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output remains at a high level [2][25]. 3.2.3 Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. The report provides a cost calculation table for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi, showing that the cash - flow cost and full cost of urea and synthetic ammonia have certain fluctuations [28]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report presents profit charts for different production processes such as fixed - bed, entrained - flow bed, and natural - gas - based production [33][34] 3.2.5 Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. The report provides historical data on monthly and annual net imports (exports) of urea from 2018 - 2025 (E) [38]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions have different demand characteristics according to the crop - planting cycle. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea in corn production [44][47] 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory of compound fertilizers [51][52]. - **Melamine**: It presents the production profit, market price, production volume, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [55][56]. - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The real - estate industry's demand for panels provides limited support, but panel exports show resilience [57]. 3.4 Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, China's urea port sample inventory was 134,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons or 4.29%. - As of January 14, 2026, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 986,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,100 tons or 3.53%. Overall, the inventory is expected to enter a phase of sideways consolidation, and the inventory - reduction speed will slow down [2][62] 3.5 International Urea - The report provides price trend charts of international urea, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [66][67][68][69]