Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The urea market opened higher and moved higher today, but declined in the afternoon and closed down. The spot price was raised due to yesterday's sharp futures increase, but market transactions were limited after the futures turned negative. The fundamentals showed little fluctuation, with the urea factory's production increasing last week and remaining stable this week. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the urea factory's inventory was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The market sentiment cooled after yesterday's rally, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [1] Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened higher and moved higher today, but declined in the afternoon and closed down. The spot price was raised due to yesterday's sharp futures increase, but market transactions were limited after the futures turned negative. The factory's small - particle urea ex - factory price in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1700 - 1740 yuan/ton. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the urea factory's inventory was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The market sentiment cooled after yesterday's rally, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1793 yuan/ton, moved higher, declined in the afternoon and closed at 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73%. The trading volume was 208,609 lots, a decrease of 4,424 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 4,156 lots, and short positions increased by 3,123 lots [2] - Spot: Affected by yesterday's sharp futures increase, today's spot price was raised, but market transactions were limited after the futures turned negative. The factory's small - particle urea ex - factory price in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1700 - 1740 yuan/ton [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton [8] - Supply: On August 20, 2025, the national daily urea output was 189,800 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 80.81% [10] - Enterprise Inventory: As of August 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95%. The pre - sale order days were 6.06 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 7, 2025, with the spot market sentiment cooling and prices stabilizing. The current supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the subsequent production is expected to decline slightly. The demand side shows that agricultural demand is mainly sporadic purchases, while the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continues to rise, which will increase the demand for urea in the future. However, the current market sentiment is low, and factories are cautious in purchasing raw materials. The inventory has started to decline, and the anti - involution measures in the coal market support the cost of urea. Export news affects the futures price, and the downstream is generally on the sidelines. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate bearishly, but the downside space is limited due to the potential increase in industrial demand [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 7, 2025, with the spot market sentiment cooling and prices stabilizing. The daily production is around 190,000 tons, and the subsequent production is expected to decline slightly in summer. Agricultural demand is sporadic, while the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continues to rise. The inventory has started to decline, and the coal market's anti - involution measures support the cost of urea. Export news affects the futures price, and the downstream is cautious. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate bearishly, but the downside space is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main 2509 contract of urea opened at 1,749 yuan/ton, closed at 1,737 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The trading volume decreased by 7,152 lots to 115,300 lots. Among the top 20 institutional positions, the long - position decreased by 4,077 lots, and the short - position decreased by 5,702 lots. Some institutions increased or decreased their net long or short positions. Spot: The spot market sentiment cooled, and prices stabilized. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton [2][5] Basis and Supply - Demand Data - Basis: Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the basis of the September contract was 53 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On August 7, 2025, the national daily urea production was 191,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 81.62%. Demand: From August 1 to August 7, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points from the previous week, and the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.1%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the previous week [9][10][14] Warehouse Receipt Data - On August 7, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the urea futures market weakened and downstream resistance to high prices emerged, market trading became dull. Although upstream factories still have many orders to fulfill and there is little pressure to cut prices for now, with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity and the expected end of agricultural demand around the end of June, weak demand will continue to drive the market trend. International urea's stimulating effect on the domestic market has subsided, and in the short term, urea is expected to consolidate. Attention should be paid to the development of subsequent export issues [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved lower today, and the market declined during the day. The supply pressure is limited even during the summer maintenance period due to the continuous release of new domestic production capacity. Agricultural demand is expected to end around the end of June, and the low operating load of compound fertilizer factories and inventory accumulation lead to insufficient willingness to purchase raw materials. Although inventory is being depleted and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased due to factors such as rainfall in North China and the Middle East geopolitical conflict, overall, the market is expected to consolidate in the short term [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2509 opened at 1775 yuan/ton and closed at 1730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86%. The trading volume was 225,410 lots, a decrease of 23,795 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 17,863 lots and short positions decreased by 1,616 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed significantly [2]. - **Spot**: After the futures market weakened and downstream resistance to high prices emerged, market trading became dull. However, upstream factories still have many orders to fulfill, and there is little pressure to cut prices for now. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1780 - 1810 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipts - On June 20, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,581, a decrease of 300 compared to the previous trading day, with multiple delivery warehouses experiencing a decrease in warehouse receipts [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, while the futures closing price weakened. Based on Shandong region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply Data**: According to Feiyitong data, on June 20, 2025, the national daily urea production was 198,300 tons, unchanged from the previous day [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral, with the expectation that the urea market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June and July, the peak season for agricultural demand, the downstream agricultural demand started slower than expected, leading to a decline in the urea futures market [2] - Urea coal - based enterprises still have decent profits, with few maintenance activities. The plant operating rate remains high, and the daily urea output will stay at a relatively high level in the future [2] - The downstream industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine has weakened [2] - The export inspection of urea has been gradually carried out, and the export window has opened. Domestic urea is being exported in an orderly manner, increasing the willingness of factories to ship to ports. Both factory and port inventories have risen [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On June 5, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,722 yuan/ton (-52). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,840 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,850 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu was 1,870 yuan/ton (-30). The basis in Shandong was 128 yuan/ton (+32), in Henan was 118 yuan/ton (+42), and in Jiangsu was 148 yuan/ton (+22) [1] Urea Production - As of June 5, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.43% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0354 million tons (+54,800 tons), while the port sample inventory was 205,000 tons (+0) [1] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 383 yuan/ton (-20), and the export profit was 488 yuan/ton (-4) [1] Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The export inspection of urea has been gradually carried out, and the export window has opened, with domestic urea being exported in an orderly manner [2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of June 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.13% (-2.96%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.31% (+1.33%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.47 days (-0.41) [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0354 million tons (+54,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 205,000 tons (+0) [1]

Report Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral strategy, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment is weak, with urea export inspections underway and domestic urea exports proceeding in an orderly manner. Downstream industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine has weakened, while agricultural demand shows signs of starting but is weaker than expected. Coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits, with few maintenance enterprises and high - level device operating rates. The daily urea output will remain at a high level. The urea export window is open, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased, leading to increased willingness of factories to ship goods to ports and rising port inventories. It is recommended to continuously monitor the start of downstream agricultural demand for urea and relevant export policies [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [7][8][16] 2. Urea Production - Covers the weekly urea production and the loss of urea device maintenance [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization [22][24][26] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - Contains FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR prices of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, FOB and CFR prices of domestic urea, price differences, and export and disk export profits [29][34][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Comprises the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pre - received orders from urea enterprises [49][45] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Covers upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract positions, and main - contract trading volume [48][51][54] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On June 3, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,761 yuan/ton (- 12). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,850 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,870 yuan/ton (0), and in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (0). The price of small - sized anthracite was 660 yuan/ton (0). The basis in Shandong was 109 yuan/ton (+ 12), in Henan was 89 yuan/ton (+ 12), and in Jiangsu was 139 yuan/ton (+ 12). The urea production profit was 403 yuan/ton (0), and the export profit was 487 yuan/ton (0) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of June 3, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.83% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 98.06 million tons (+ 6.32), and the port sample inventory was 20.50 million tons (+ 0.20) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of June 3, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.09% (+ 2.52%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.98% (- 3.51%), and the number of days of pre - received orders from urea enterprises was 5.88 days (- 0.06) [1]