工程机械更新换代

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【机械】国内工程机械迎来开门红,政策助力行业需求持续复苏——工程机械行业2025年1-2月月报(黄帅斌/陈佳宁/李佳琦)
光大证券研究· 2025-03-12 09:07
Core Viewpoint - The domestic engineering machinery market is experiencing a significant recovery, with strong sales and operating hours in early 2025, indicating positive trends in the industry [2][4]. Group 1: Sales and Operating Data - In January-February 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 31,782 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, with domestic sales at 17,045 units, up 51.4% [2]. - The operating hours for Komatsu in January 2025 were 66.2 hours, significantly higher than the previous two years during the same period [2]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The ongoing replacement cycle in the engineering machinery sector is expected to drive sales, with a projected compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [3]. - The export of used machinery to developing countries is also contributing to the reduction of domestic machinery inventory, further boosting new machine sales [3]. Group 3: Policy Support - The 2025 government work report indicates a plan to issue over 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at infrastructure investment and supporting the construction of major projects [4]. - The report emphasizes the continuation of urban infrastructure investment, particularly in areas such as underground engineering and municipal construction, which will sustain demand for engineering machinery [4]. Group 4: Export Trends - In January-February 2025, excavator exports totaled 14,737 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, while loader exports reached 8,439 units, up 8.3% [5]. - The engineering machinery sector is expected to maintain growth in exports, driven by opportunities in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as increased penetration in high-end markets in Europe and the U.S. [5]. Group 5: Electrification Trends - Sales of electric loaders surged to 2,413 units in January-February 2025, marking a 261.2% year-on-year increase, with an electrification rate of 14.5%, up 12 percentage points from the previous year [6]. - The government report highlights the push for green transformation and energy-saving initiatives, indicating that electrification will be a key focus for the engineering machinery industry moving forward [6].