山推股份 20250925 摘要 三推股份整体销售收入增速高于行业平均水平，但与头部企业相比仍有 差距。通过调整海外市场结构，在印尼、非洲、东南亚和澳大利亚等地 实现了大幅增长，抵消了俄罗斯市场下降的影响，整体收入增长 5%。 国内工程机械行业处于筑底回升态势，受益于 6 月份发布的一系列基建 投资项目，如雅江投资项目、新藏铁路等，这些项目可能带来长达 5-10 年的持续投资机会，总投资额远超 1.2 万亿元。 针对矿山机械产品可靠性不足的问题，三推股份加快推进新产品验证， 包括 150 吨至 300 吨级挖掘机以及 AI 推土机、AI 挖掘机等，并发布了 AI 产品实施路径，从 L1 到 L5，提高施工效率。 三全股份港股发行进展顺利，已收到深交所和港交所的问题反馈，计划 在 2025 年底前完成港股发行，有望在 2026 年一季度完成。矿山机械 领域是未来重点发展方向，相关利润占比超过 40%，海外市场是主要增 长点。 高新矿卡在手订单约二三百台，收入已达 3 亿多元。公司正在扩产，建 设新的试制车间，总投资 2.5 亿元，并加大了刚性矿卡产品研发，包括 纯燃油、纯电动及混动等四款产品。 Q&A 今年上半 ...

Core Viewpoint - LiuGong is focusing on high-quality development and global expansion, emphasizing innovation and customer-centric strategies to enhance its market position and brand recognition in the engineering machinery sector [4][6][7]. Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of the year, LiuGong achieved operating revenue of 18.181 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.21% [4]. - LiuGong's overseas revenue reached 8.523 billion, accounting for 46.88% of total revenue, with overseas net profit hitting a new high [6]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - LiuGong aims to accelerate its transition from internationalization to globalization over the next five years, focusing on global industrial layout and enhancing its global operational capabilities [6]. - The company is committed to deepening its "Three Full" strategy, which includes institutional innovation, core technology enhancement, comprehensive internationalization, value chain collaboration, and brand influence [7]. Group 3: Product Innovation - LiuGong showcased several breakthrough products at the exhibition, including large electric machinery and comprehensive energy solutions, highlighting advancements in electric technology and smart mining operations [9][11]. - The company is prioritizing the development of fully electric equipment as a core breakthrough in the mining market, integrating intelligent and unmanned technologies to improve safety and efficiency [11]. Group 4: ESG and Sustainability - LiuGong is committed to achieving a dual win of "green transformation" and "business sustainability" through technological innovation and product iteration, aligning with its mission of extending human capabilities with smart green machinery [13]. Group 5: Industry Engagement - The media event served as a platform for LiuGong to demonstrate its strength and innovation in the engineering machinery field, fostering communication with media and industry partners [16].

宽体车业务注入后，将与两桥矿车、矿挖等产品协同发展，形成行业内最齐全的露天矿山机械挖、装、 运成套化解决方案。目前公司矿业机械国内第一、世界前五，计划通过整合产业板块等举措，成为全球 露天矿山装备主流竞争者。根据十五五规划，2030年矿业机械板块（含地上、地下矿山设备、备件等） 目标超400亿。 海外市场拓展：全球布局完善，出口增长态势良好 公司营销网络覆盖全球190余个国家和地区，主要出口区域广泛。预计海外市场将延续良好态势，出口 收入保持增长。原因在于海外市场对国产品牌需求释放、国产产品品质提升、渠道与服务完善、区域市 场提升空间大以及国内企业全球化布局加速。 徐工机械于2025年9月10日接受了华商基金、嘉实基金、中信建投等5家机构的特定对象调研，公司高管 与调研人员就股权激励、矿机产品规划、海外市场拓展及需求展望等重要问题进行了交流。 调研基本信息 本次投资者关系活动类别为特定对象调研，时间为2025年9月10日12:00 - 13:00，地点在公司会议室。参 与单位名称包括华商基金、嘉实基金、中信建投，其中华商基金派出研究总监童立、投资经理张晓与彭 欣扬，嘉实基金派出基金经理杨欢，中信建投派出张宇。 ...

Group 1: Equity Incentive Plan - The equity incentive plan is designed to align with the company's "two-step" development blueprint, ensuring shared responsibility and outcomes among stakeholders [2] - Key performance indicators for the incentive plan include ROE, net profit, and net cash flow from operating activities, aimed at enhancing competitiveness and motivating core employees [3] Group 2: Mining Machinery Product Structure - The integration of wide-body trucks into XCMG's product line aims to create a comprehensive solution for open-pit mining machinery, enhancing competitiveness [3] - XCMG's mining machinery sector is positioned as a leading player domestically and among the top five globally, with a target of exceeding 40 billion by 2030 [4] Group 3: International Market Expansion - XCMG has a global marketing network covering over 190 countries, facilitating comprehensive product marketing and service solutions [4] - The company anticipates continued growth in export revenue, driven by increasing demand for domestic brands in overseas markets [5] Group 4: Domestic and International Demand Outlook - The industry is expected to maintain over 10% growth in exports in the second half of the year, supported by policy benefits and technological advancements [6] - Domestic sales are projected to recover due to overlapping factors such as policy incentives and the renewal cycle [6]

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 54.8 billion CNY, with a net profit of 4.417 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.39% [2] - The attributable net profit was 4.36 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [2] - The non-recurring attributable net profit reached 4.467 billion CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 35.57% [2] - Operating cash flow was 3.73 billion CNY, up 108% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 22%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points [2] Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is entering a deep transformation period, with new policies and projects expected to accelerate recovery [2] - The company anticipates a sustained growth of over 10% in exports for the second half of the year, driven by policy benefits and market recovery [3] - The demand for mining machinery is expected to grow due to stable increases in global mineral resource development and ongoing equipment upgrades [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on stabilizing prices and reducing costs through various measures, including procurement and production cost reductions [3] - A comprehensive product series for open-pit mining machinery is being developed, positioning the company as a leading competitor globally [3] - The company has established a complete industrial chain for new energy products, achieving an 18% penetration rate in the new energy sector [5] Market Expansion - The company has a global marketing network covering over 190 countries, with expectations for continued growth in overseas markets [4] - The export revenue is projected to maintain a positive growth trend, supported by improved product quality and competitive pricing [5] - The company has maintained a leading position in various machinery categories, including cranes and concrete machinery, with significant market shares [5] Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes investor returns, with a commitment to distribute at least 40% of the annual distributable profits as cash dividends over the next three years (2025-2027) [7]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The sales of various excavators reached 18,804 units in June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with domestic sales of 8,136 units (up 6.2%) and exports of 10,668 units (up 19.3%) [1] - In the first half of 2025, a total of 120,520 excavators were sold, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.8%, with domestic sales of 65,637 units (up 22.9%) and exports of 54,883 units (up 10.2%) [1] - The domestic excavator sales in June showed a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, rebounding by 7.7 percentage points compared to previous values, driven by accelerated second-hand exports and a low base from the previous year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The construction machinery industry is expected to maintain stable growth in excavator sales, with domestic earth-moving equipment projected to achieve double-digit growth for the year [2] - The demand for excavators is shifting towards recovery, particularly in the mining sector and major water conservancy projects, while the demand for small excavators is slowing down [2] - The government plans to issue long-term special bonds and increase local government special bonds to stimulate infrastructure investment, which is expected to boost downstream equipment demand [5][6] Group 3: Company Performance - Zoomlion (000157) anticipates that domestic sales will enter a growth trajectory, expanding its business from domestic markets to global markets across engineering, agricultural, and mining machinery [3] - Sany International (00631) reported a revenue of 5.876 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, with net profit rising by 23.2% [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business, particularly in emerging regions, while also enhancing its product offerings in earth-moving, agricultural, and mining machinery [7]

Performance Review - Company reported 1Q25 financial data: revenue of 5.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, gross profit of 1.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 635 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, meeting expectations [1]. Development Trends Mining Equipment - Domestic demand remains resilient, with positive outlook for overseas expansion of mining trucks. Domestic coal prices are in a downward trend due to weak demand. Current demand for tunneling machines and wide-body trucks is strong, while hydraulic support prices are under intense competition. The company expects good growth for overseas wide-body trucks and large mining trucks, driven by product upgrades and reduced overall user costs, indicating significant long-term growth potential in large mining trucks and related aftermarket [1]. Logistics Equipment - Demand for port machinery is on the rise, with expansion of new products overseas. Starting in 2023, global demand for port equipment is recovering, with full orders for large port machinery and gradually strengthening order profitability. Exports of small port machinery products remain robust in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Over the past three years, the company has aggressively expanded new products like telescopic forklifts in the European and American markets, currently producing in India to address tariff issues. The company is optimistic about the trend towards electrification of small port machinery and the continued expansion of new products overseas [1]. Oil and Gas Equipment - Demand and profitability are expected to recover. In 2024, revenue and profitability declined due to major clients' cost-cutting measures. The company anticipates marginal recovery in industry demand in 2025, with strengthened internal management to restore market share [2]. New Industries - Focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, expanding overseas application scenarios. In 2024, the company will enhance management reforms for new industries, readjusting businesses with intense competition and limited profitability. It is expected that operating losses in new industries will significantly narrow in 2025, optimizing the efficiency and return rate of existing assets [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains the 2025 EPS forecast at 0.70 yuan and introduces the 2026 EPS forecast at 0.81 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 7.9x/6.7x P/E for 2025/2026. Considering the improvement prospects in new industry profitability, the target price is raised by 25% to 7.10 HKD, corresponding to 9.5x/8.1x P/E for 2025/2026, indicating a 21% upside potential, maintaining an outperform rating [2].

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the EPS forecast for SANY International (00631) at 0.70 HKD for 2025 and introduces a new EPS forecast of 0.81 HKD for 2026, raising the target price by 25% to 7.10 HKD, indicating a 21% upside potential based on improved profitability in new industries [1] Financial Performance - The company reported Q1 2025 financial data with revenue of 5.876 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, gross profit of 1.428 billion HKD, up 11.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 635 million HKD, reflecting a 23.2% year-on-year growth, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] Mining Equipment - Domestic demand remains resilient, with strong demand for tunneling machines and wide-body trucks, despite weak coal prices. The company is expected to see good growth in overseas wide-body trucks and large mining trucks, supported by product upgrades and reduced overall user costs, indicating significant long-term growth potential [3] Logistics Equipment - Global demand for port equipment is recovering, with a full order book for large port machines and improving order profitability. The company has successfully expanded its small port machine exports in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and has introduced new products like telescopic forklifts in the European and American markets, produced in India to mitigate tariff issues. The trend towards electrification of small port machines is viewed positively [4] Oil and Gas Equipment - In 2024, revenue and profitability are expected to decline due to cost-cutting measures from major clients. However, a marginal recovery in industry demand is anticipated in 2025, with the company focusing on internal management improvements to regain market share [5] New Industries - In 2024, the company is enhancing management reforms in new industries to improve efficiency and reduce costs. A significant narrowing of operational losses in new industries is expected in 2025, along with better utilization and return rates of existing assets [6]

Governance and Management - The new board structure is stable, maintaining the company's governance mechanisms without changes, emphasizing standardized management and market-oriented decision-making [2][3] - The annual performance targets remain unchanged, with strategic goals for 2027 being progressively advanced [2][3] - The new management team is a blend of experienced and energetic members, fostering a collaborative and cohesive environment [3] Strategic Development - The company is committed to a strategy of "comprehensive internationalization, comprehensive intelligence, and comprehensive solutions," aiming for business growth and quality improvement [4] - The "15-5" strategic plan is being developed to enhance growth across various sectors, including engineering machinery and emerging markets [4] - The company plans to leverage measures such as performance growth, share buybacks, and high cash dividends to enhance investor returns [3] Market Performance and Trends - The domestic excavator sales have outpaced industry growth, with an expected double-digit growth rate for the year [7] - The demand for loaders has surged due to increased investment in agricultural water conservancy projects and major infrastructure [8] - Despite a slowdown in the real estate market, demand is anticipated to stabilize due to government initiatives in urban renewal and infrastructure projects [7] International Business Outlook - The overseas business has shown steady growth, particularly in emerging markets, despite a general decline in global demand [10] - The company aims to enhance its position in emerging regions while expanding its operations in Europe and North America [10] Mining Equipment Development - The company offers a comprehensive range of mining products and plans to focus on large and super-large tonnage equipment, as well as smart and green mining solutions [12] - Future strategies include global development and targeted customer engagement in both domestic and international markets [12]