智通财经APP获悉，过去5个月，标普500指数累计涨幅超31%，创近20年来最强劲的反弹之一。如下图 所示，这一表现仅次于2008年金融危机和疫情期间的反弹幅度，令人瞩目。 对于投资美国主要股指追踪型ETF的投资者而言，上周又是收获颇丰的一周。背后主要有两大驱动因 素：一是市场预期美联储本周将开启降息周期;二是涉足人工智能(AI)领域的企业财报表现强劲，点燃了 市场乐观情绪。 值得注意的是，此次市场对AI的乐观情绪升温，并非源于英伟达(NVDA.US)的相关消息，而是由甲骨 文(ORCL.US)的财报推动。甲骨文不仅公布了超预期的业绩，还发布了极具信心的业绩指引，其股价随 之暴涨逾40%。这一业绩对金融市场的影响深远，甚至使其创始人超越埃隆・马斯克，成为全球新首 富。 当前市场是否存在泡沫? 尽管众多分析师坚持"当前市场存在泡沫"的观点，但股市仍在持续攀升。下图将当前AI热潮与历史上的 铁路、电信及页岩油行业热潮进行了对比分析。 若仅从市场表现来看，AI领域的"泡沫"早该破裂了。然而，投资研究机构Multiplo Invest坚信，当前时 代正面临一场真正的产业革命——AI将通过提升生产效率，为经济增长注入强 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve meeting may act as a catalyst for a short-term strengthening of the US dollar, especially given its recent consolidation since early July [1] - Concerns arise that the meeting could trigger a "news sell-off" due to heightened market bubbles, potentially limiting upside and exacerbating downside trading [1] - The US 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has achieved its highest percentile return since April 8, indicating a fatigue in current stock and fixed income levels [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The US stock market is rising, led by technology stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing its best single-day gain in nearly two years [2] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.4%, with consumer goods and banking stocks performing well, while healthcare stocks lagged [2] Group 3: Bond Market Trends - US bond yields have decreased ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [3] - European sovereign bond yields also fell, with strong demand for corporate bonds [4] - Investment-grade corporate bonds are at their highest level of technical overbought conditions since early 2020 [5] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar is declining, with Deutsche Bank noting that overseas investors are significantly reducing their dollar exposure while purchasing US stocks and bonds [6] - Gold prices are reaching new historical highs as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates [6] - Oil prices continue to rise as traders consider further sanctions on Russian oil in response to anticipated oversupply later this year [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component down 2.14% to 12553.84 points, and the ChiNext Index down 2.85% to 2872.22 points [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,750 billion, an increase of 1,250 billion compared to the previous day [2][3] Individual Stock Performance - Despite the limited decline in major indices, individual stocks faced significant losses, with approximately 4,048 stocks declining by a median drop of about 1.5% [3] - Key stocks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China rose by 2.57%, and China Merchants Bank increased by 3.48%, leading the banking sector to a 1.69% gain [3][4] Sector Performance - The telecommunications sector experienced the largest decline, down 5%, followed by semiconductor and power equipment sectors, which fell by 4.47% and 4.20%, respectively [5] - The top ten declining sectors are predominantly from the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) field, with a total capital outflow of 979 billion [5] Capital Flow - The total outflow of main funds from the two markets reached 1,721 billion, marking a record level, with northbound funds seeing a significant outflow of 1,531 billion [5] - The margin financing balance reached a new high of 2.3 trillion, raising concerns about whether leveraged funds will turn bearish [5] Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment indicates a bubble, with average price-to-earnings ratios in micro-cap stocks, the CSI 2000, and the ChiNext at historical highs [8] - The protective actions of the Shanghai 50 index have somewhat masked the outflow of funds, suggesting a disconnect between market performance and underlying fundamentals [8]

Market Overview - The Chief Investment Officer of Lianhua Asset Management, Hong Hao, identifies two key indicators for market assessment: the market capitalization to GDP ratio and the margin trading balance [1][6] - Based on these indicators, both the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite Index have a potential upside of 10%, targeting approximately 28,000 and 4,200 points respectively [1][7] Market Indicators - The current market sentiment is reflected in the trading volume, which reached 1.83 trillion yuan, indicating a decrease of 246 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 87, while only 3 stocks hit the limit down, suggesting a generally positive market sentiment [4] Bull Market Analysis - Hong Hao suggests that the current bull market could last until at least November, with the potential for further gains if liquidity conditions remain favorable [6][9] - The margin trading balance has recently exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating a high risk appetite in the market, which typically leads the market by 1-3 months [7] Valuation and Bubble Assessment - Hong Hao rates the current level of market bubble at around 3-4 out of 10, suggesting that there is still room for growth before reaching a critical bubble stage [6] - The market capitalization to GDP ratio is currently lower than previous peaks in 2007, 2015, and 2021, which raises questions about the current valuation levels despite a more open market environment [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of retail investors in the U.S. stock market has been notable, as they continue to buy during market downturns, contributing to the recovery of indices like the S&P 500, and reviving meme trading trends [1][3][9] Group 1: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors have shown a willingness to buy the dip during market declines, such as the significant drop in the S&P 500 earlier this year, which they helped rebound to record levels [1][4] - The current generation of retail investors has largely experienced a favorable market environment, growing up in a low-interest-rate era, which influences their risk tolerance and investment behavior [3][5] - Data from EPFR indicates that during the 2022 market downturn, retail investors still contributed a net inflow of $27 billion into U.S. stock mutual funds and ETFs [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Sentiment - The return of meme trading and the high valuations of large-cap tech stocks have raised concerns among Wall Street professionals about a potential market bubble [3][8] - Retail investors' confidence is reflected in the increasing proportion of stocks in household financial assets, which reached 36% in Q1 2023, the highest since the 1950s [6][7] - A survey by Charles Schwab revealed that approximately 80% of respondents plan to buy stocks if market volatility occurs in the coming months, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among retail investors [8]

Market Overview - US stock index futures fell ahead of the market opening on August 1, with Dow futures down 0.84%, S&P 500 futures down 0.86%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.98% [1] - Wall Street "smart money" is accelerating its exit from US stocks despite the S&P 500 nearing historical highs, with hedge funds reducing their positions at the fastest rate in a year [4] Economic Indicators - The upcoming July employment report is expected to show an addition of 110,000 jobs, a significant drop from June's 147,000, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The Federal Reserve's balance point for job growth has shifted to 80,000-100,000 jobs per month [3] Corporate Earnings - ExxonMobil reported Q2 earnings exceeding expectations with an adjusted EPS of $1.64, maintaining a $20 billion stock buyback commitment despite a nearly $20 per barrel drop in international oil prices [5] - Chevron's Q2 adjusted earnings reached $3.1 billion, with record production levels and cost control measures supporting performance [6] - Apple reported its Q3 revenue growth of 9.6%, the fastest in over three years, driven by strong iPhone sales and a recovery in the Chinese market [7] - Amazon's Q2 revenue grew 13% to $167.7 billion, but its cloud business AWS saw a growth rate of just over 17%, raising questions about the effectiveness of its AI investments [8] - Vale's Q2 net profit increased by 6% to $2.12 billion, supported by a surge in iron ore production [9] - WeRide's Q2 revenue grew 60.8%, with Robotaxi revenue reaching its highest proportion since 2021 [10] - First Solar raised its full-year guidance, expecting net sales between $4.9 billion and $5.7 billion for 2025 [11]

Market Overview - US stock index futures fell across the board, with Dow futures down 0.84%, S&P 500 futures down 0.86%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.98% [1] - Wall Street "smart money" is accelerating its exit from US stocks, with hedge funds reducing their positions at the fastest rate in a year, particularly in the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors [3] - Former JPMorgan chief strategist Marko Kolanovic warned that the US stock market is approaching a "bubble peak," driven by the excessive influence of large tech stocks [4] Economic Indicators - The upcoming US employment report is expected to show a significant drop in job additions to 110,000 in July, down from 147,000 in June, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% [2] - The Federal Reserve's balance point for job additions has shifted to 80,000-100,000 per month, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market [2] Company Performance - ExxonMobil reported Q2 earnings that exceeded expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.64, and maintained a $20 billion stock buyback program despite a decline in international oil prices [4] - Chevron's Q2 earnings also surpassed expectations, with adjusted earnings of $3.1 billion and a global oil production increase to 3.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day [5] - Apple announced its Q3 revenue growth of 9.6%, the fastest in over three years, driven by strong iPhone sales and a recovery in the Chinese market [6] - Amazon's Q2 revenue grew by 13% to $167.7 billion, but its cloud business AWS saw a growth rate of just over 17%, raising concerns about the effectiveness of its AI investments [7] - Vale's Q2 net profit increased by 6% to $2.12 billion, supported by a surge in iron ore production, although revenue declined by 11% [8] - WeRide reported a 60.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 revenue, with Robotaxi revenue reaching its highest proportion since 2021 [9] - First Solar raised its full-year guidance, reporting Q2 net sales of $1.1 billion, exceeding market expectations [10]

Group 1 - The price gap between TSMC's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and its stocks listed in Taipei has surged to the highest level in 16 years, raising concerns about a potential overheat in the AI boom [2][3] - In July, TSMC's ADRs traded at a 24% premium compared to its Taipei-listed stocks, up from 17% in April and 7.4% over the past decade, indicating a significant increase in demand from U.S. market participants [2] - The increase in premium is attributed to TSMC's critical role in the global AI supply chain and the limited supply of ADRs, making conversion operations difficult [2] Group 2 - Since the release of ChatGPT in 2022, TSMC's ADRs have risen over 190%, while its Taipei-listed stocks have increased by less than 140%, with foreign ownership in the latter reaching nearly 74% [3] - Market observers suggest that the widening price gap signals caution, indicating a potential bubble in the U.S. market for popular tech companies' ADRs [3]

台积电(TSM.US)美国存托凭证(ADR)与其台北上市股票之间的价格差距飙升至逾16年来的最高水平， 再次引发市场对人工智能热潮可能过热的担忧。数据显示，台积电ADR7月较其台湾本地上市股票平均 溢价24%，高于4月的17%和过去十年的均值7.4%。尽管台积电ADR历来较其台北挂牌股票存在溢价， 但7月的价差如今已达到自2009年4月以来的最高水平。 投资研究公司Zero One执行董事Vincent Fernando表示："一方面，投资者对台积电在全球AI供应链中的 关键角色日益关注，显著推高了美国市场对其ADR的需求。但与此同时，ADR的供给相对固定，新增 发行空间有限，转换操作也变得更为困难。这导致ADR溢价的交易区间不断扩大。" 在Acadian资产管理公司担任投资组合经理的Owen Lamont等市场观察人士看来，这种价差扩大的现象 释放了审慎的信号。Owen Lamont表示："当热门科技公司的美国ADR相对于其本地股票出现过度溢价 时，这往往是美国市场泡沫的信号。我在当前市场中看到了许多过热的迹象。" 台积电ADR之所以历来存在溢价，主要有两个原因：第一，它们是可替代的(可在市场间自由交易)， ...

华尔街的持续狂欢正引发日益增长的泡沫担忧。 美银策略师Michael Hartnett近日警告称，在特朗普政府的政策转向、全球央行宽松以及金融监管放松的共同作用下，市场正被推向一个由"更大规 模的散户参与、更充裕的流动性、更剧烈的波动性"所构成的"更大泡沫"。 最新的动态凸显了政策对市场的强力驱动。据见闻此前文章，特朗普近期访问了美联储，成为自1937年罗斯福总统以来第四位到访该机构的在任 总统。Hartnett指出，此举反映出特朗普政府在削减开支无望后，正倾向于通过推动经济和市场走向"终极井喷"，来应对高达37万亿美元的国家债 务。 Hartnett分析认为，鉴于美国政府每年超过1万亿美元的利息支出，特朗普政府迫切需要美联储降息以稳定债务成本。他因此预测，下一任美联储 主席可能会启动收益率曲线控制，以更直接地压低借贷成本，这表明政策宽松的预期仍在升温。 受此预期提振，华尔街继续押注于更低的关税、税收和利率，推动标普500指数今年以来上涨9%。然而，市场表现并非普涨，美元走弱利好国际 资产，而与特朗普关系密切的"亿万富翁概念股"与对利率敏感的小盘股之间也出现了明显分化。 特朗普政策转向与债务压力 根据Hart ...