1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The current market shows characteristics of "strong expectation, weak reality". The futures market is supported by marginal positives, and the resistance of the main contract is gradually emerging, but the spot price is restricted by high - level inventory and weak terminal demand. The trend of price increase still needs substantial inventory reduction and over - expected recovery of the demand side. The futures price may maintain a short - term shock, and attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July and changes on the supply side [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 3, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 64,080 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day, with a narrow - fluctuating price center; the basis weakened slightly to - 1,880 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased to 334,000 lots, a five - day high, but the trading volume shrank by 22.11% [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: On the supply side, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica remained stable, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium salt plants remained at a high level of 62.8%, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure remained. On the demand side, there was a divergence in the power sector. The price of lithium iron phosphate materials rose by 0.36% to 30,660 yuan/ton, and the 5 - series ternary materials rose slightly by 0.04% due to cost support. However, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and battery cells remained flat, and there was a risk of further decline in the power market demand in July. The overseas demand for energy storage provided support, but the consumer electronics market was in the traditional off - season, and the wet recycling market had light trading. The overall demand improvement was weak. The social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.44% to 136,800 tons, and the oversupply pattern in the industrial chain remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Summary**: The recent market shows "strong expectation, weak reality" characteristics. The futures market is supported by marginal positives, and the resistance of the main contract is emerging. However, the spot price is restricted by high - level inventory and weak terminal demand. Attention should be paid to the change in the spot replenishment rhythm and the implementation of salt plant maintenance. If the inventory accumulation slope slows down, there may be a basis repair opportunity, but a trend - like increase still needs substantial inventory reduction and over - expected recovery of the demand side [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 3, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate was 64,080 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day; the basis was - 1,880 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous day; the open interest of the main contract increased by 2.61% to 334,057 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 22.11% to 420,967 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,200 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The market prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power - type ternary materials rose by 0.04%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose by 0.36%. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 62.8%, and the inventory increased by 1.44% to 136,837 tons. The prices of various types of battery cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 3, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,054 yuan/ton, up 416 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,100 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot price showed signs of stopping falling and rebounding slightly, but the supply was still strong, and the inventory pressure remained. Attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: From June 1 - 22, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 691,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 11%, with a retail penetration rate of 54.5%. The wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles of national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 666,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month increase of 6%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.8% [7]. - **Industry News**: - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned to comprehensively upgrade the annual 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line and invest about 120.7 million yuan to build an annual 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical transformation project, with a shutdown and maintenance and technical transformation time of about 6 months [8][9]. - On June 24, the estimated total investment of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project was 4.537 billion yuan, aiming to produce 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually and recover boron elements, with a by - product of 17,000 tons of borax [9]. - On June 19, Yahua Group announced the establishment of Yahua Lithium Industry Group to integrate lithium - related resources, improve resource synergy efficiency, and focus on the development of the lithium industry [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides data charts on the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and battery cell selling prices [10][14][16][18][19][23][24]. 3.5 Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process The futures price may maintain a short - term shock, and attention should be paid to the actual demand recovery in July and changes on the supply side. Although the spot price has rebounded slightly, the oversupply and inventory accumulation are the main pressures. The demand has some signs of recovery, but the overall strength is insufficient to support a significant increase. The weakening basis may show the reaction of the futures market to the expected improvement. The increase in open interest but the decrease in trading volume may indicate market divergence [31][32].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Although there are expectations of supply tightening, subsequent production will recover, and demand remains weak. Caution is advised when chasing up [3]. - The price of copper is expected to continue its upward trend, but the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations on the US dollar index will increase price volatility [5]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise in the September peak - demand season, with short - term upward movement on the disk. Attention should be paid to the support level around 62,000 [10]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but geopolitical risks and the OPEC+ meeting need to be monitored. It is recommended to lightly buy put options [11][12]. - For asphalt, as it enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - PP and plastic are expected to fluctuate at low levels due to factors such as weak downstream demand and inventory pressure [15][16]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at low levels in the near term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. - Soybean meal futures are expected to show a volatile adjustment trend, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and tax bills [19]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather during the growing season [21]. - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. - Hot - rolled coil is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. - The price increase of urea is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Price**: Opened high and closed up more than 3% [3]. - **Supply**: There are expectations of production cuts during the safety month, and the Mongolian coal import port is closed for 5 days. Domestic production and imports have decreased, and mine coking coal inventory has decreased significantly [3]. - **Demand**: Relatively weak and stable. Coke enterprises' profit has decreased, and the iron - water production increase is small. Terminal demand is affected by high temperatures and real - estate policies [3]. Copper - **Price**: Opened low and closed down [5]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper smelting is expected to be tight, but the actual supply is increasing. Global copper inventory is decreasing, with different trends in different regions [5]. - **Demand**: Affected by the copper tariff event, export demand has increased, but terminal demand is weak, and it is mainly supported by low - price purchases [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has increased [10]. - **Supply**: Although there are expectations of supply tightening due to supply - side reform, current weekly production is increasing [10]. - **Demand**: The market expects September to be the peak - demand season. The prices of downstream materials have increased, but battery factory demand is relatively stable [10]. Crude Oil - **Geopolitical Situation**: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but geopolitical risks still need to be monitored. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 [11]. - **Supply - Demand**: Entering the seasonal peak - demand season, US crude oil inventory has decreased, and OPEC+ production increase is less than expected [11]. Asphalt - **Supply**: The weekly production is increasing, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries has decreased [13]. - **Demand**: As it gradually enters the peak season, the demand in the north is relatively good [13]. - **Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - **Supply**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the restart of some maintenance devices has increased production. The downstream start - up rate has decreased [14][15]. - **Demand**: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [15]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Plastic - **Supply**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the start - up rate has decreased. The downstream start - up rate is at a low level [16]. - **Demand**: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [16]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level in the near term [16]. PVC - **Supply**: The start - up rate has decreased, and social inventory is high [17][18]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and exports are affected by policies [17][18]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. Soybean Meal - **Supply**: Domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, and inventory is increasing [19]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is stable, and oil mills have little motivation to support prices [19]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to show a volatile adjustment trend [19]. Soybean Oil - **Supply**: Domestic soybean arrivals are large, and the oil - mill start - up rate is high, resulting in inventory accumulation [21]. - **Demand**: Market reaction to USDA reports is flat, and the peak - production expectation is strong, but weather changes need to be watched out for [21]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to maintain a volatile trend [21]. Rebar - **Supply**: Production is increasing, and supply pressure is rising [22]. - **Demand**: Demand is weak, showing seasonal characteristics [22]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased [22]. - **Cost**: The cost center has moved up, providing support [22]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. Hot - rolled Coil - **Supply**: Production is expected to increase as maintenance impacts decrease [25]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand has seasonal decline, but is relatively resilient [25]. - **Cost**: Furnace material support is strong [25]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. Urea - **Supply**: Production is affected by maintenance, and there are concerns about supply - side reform, but the impact is relatively small [26]. - **Demand**: Overall demand is weak and stable, mainly relying on exports for inventory reduction [26]. - **Recommendation**: The price increase is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]