Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a differentiated adjustment, with a continued decline in housing prices but signs of recovery in market confidence due to favorable policies [1][5]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - In August, the sales prices of new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, but the year-on-year decline is narrowing [1]. - Shanghai's new housing prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.9% year-on-year, leading the 70 cities [2]. - The average transaction price of new residential properties in Shanghai reached 82,653 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 2.38% and a year-on-year increase of 5.37% [2]. Group 2: Market Activity and Supply - The introduction of the "8.25 New Policy" has led to increased activity on both the supply and demand sides in Shanghai's real estate market [3]. - In the week of August 25-31, 14 projects were launched, accounting for 68% of the total new housing supply for August [3]. - The number of "sunshine listings" has increased, indicating a shift in buyer sentiment and a reduction in the wait-and-see attitude [3]. Group 3: Second-Hand Housing Market - In August, the second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, while second and third-tier cities saw declines of 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively [4]. - The number of second-hand housing listings nationwide increased by 9.69% year-on-year, reaching 2.5464 million units [4]. - Only one city, Changchun, saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices, rising by 0.1% [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Conditions - From January to August, national real estate development investment totaled 60,309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [5]. - The sales area of new residential properties decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3% [6]. - The market is expected to enter a traditional peak season, with real estate companies likely to accelerate project launches in core cities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China shows signs of stabilization with a narrowing decline in sales and an increase in new home prices in several cities, indicating potential recovery in the sector [1][18][24]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first eight months of 2023, the total sales area of new commercial housing reached 573.04 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, but this decline is 13.3 percentage points narrower than the same period last year [18]. - The sales revenue from new commercial housing was 550.15 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 16.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [18]. - As of the end of August, the inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased for six consecutive months, with a total of 76.169 million square meters, down 3.17 million square meters from July [21]. Group 2: Price Trends - In August, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, new home prices increased month-on-month in nine cities, including Shanghai and Hangzhou, with the number of cities experiencing price increases rising by three compared to July [1][17]. - The year-on-year decline in new home prices in first-tier cities was 0.9%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [8][17]. - The year-on-year decline in second and third-tier cities was 2.4% and 3.7%, respectively, with declines narrowing by 0.4 percentage points [8][16]. Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The government has implemented various policies to stabilize the real estate market, including adjustments to housing policies and financial incentives, which have shown some positive effects [24][25]. - Analysts suggest that the market is transitioning from a phase of rapid decline to one of stabilization, with expectations for improved market conditions in the coming months [22][26]. - The upcoming "Golden September" marketing season is anticipated to boost market activity, particularly in core cities, as developers increase their sales efforts [26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [9]. Core Viewpoints - The financing environment remains loose, and the effects of destocking are becoming increasingly evident, with a continued trend towards stabilization in the real estate market [1][4]. - The report highlights that the sales area of commercial housing in August was 57.44 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continued policy support and the need for further interest rate cuts to enhance rental yield attractiveness and accelerate land acquisition [6][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In August, the sales amount of commercial housing was 544.9 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to July [6]. - The total area of unsold commercial housing at the end of August was 760 million square meters, marking a continuous reduction for six months, indicating effective destocking [6]. Financial Trends - Real estate investment in August decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with new construction down 20.6% and completion down 21.4% [6]. - Domestic loans showed a positive growth of 1.1% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in the financing environment for the industry [6][5]. Company Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and product quality, specifically mentioning companies like Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others as potential investment opportunities [5].

21世纪经济报道记者李莎 北京报道 前8月房地产市场呈现市场销售降幅收窄，新房价格环比上涨城市增加、同比降幅收窄等积 极信号。 9月15日，国家统计局公布前8月房地产数据。1-8月，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降4.7%，降幅比去年同期收窄13.3个百分 点，比去年全年收窄8.2个百分点。商品房销售额下降7.3%，降幅比去年同期收窄16.3个百分点，比去年全年收窄9.8个百分点。 在房价方面，8月70个大中城市中，上海、杭州、沈阳、合肥、南宁、西宁、乌鲁木齐、吉林、宜昌这9个城市新房价格环比上 涨，上涨城市数量较7月增加3个。同时，70城中多数城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅有所收窄。 9月15日，国新办召开新闻发布会，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在会上表示，受国内外 形势变化影响，前8个月房地产市场虽有所波动，但商品房销售和住宅价格同比降幅在收窄，去库存成效继续显现，房地产市场 仍朝着止跌回稳方向迈进。 商品房待售面积连续6个月减少 比如在新房市场，8月一线城市新房价格环比下降0.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点，其中，上海上涨0.4%，北京、广州和深 圳分别下降0.4%、0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The sales decline of real estate companies has narrowed, with August showing a year-on-year decrease of 13% and a cumulative decrease of 18%, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][2]. Sales Performance - In August 2025, the sales amount for 50 real estate companies was 170.8 billion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year, while the sales area was 9.47 million square meters, down 14.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, the sales amount reached 1557.8 billion yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year, with a sales area of 80.5 million square meters, down 24.3% year-on-year [2][4]. Policy Environment - The State Council has emphasized the need for stronger measures to stabilize the market, with recent policies in Beijing and Shanghai aimed at relaxing purchase restrictions [2][5]. - The market shows a structural differentiation, with first and second-tier cities performing better than third and fourth-tier cities, leading to a forecast of a "structurally strong + overall weak" real estate market [1][2]. Company Rankings - In August, the top three companies by sales were 招蛇 (Zhaosheng) with 19.5 billion yuan (up 39% year-on-year), 中海 (China Overseas) with 18.3 billion yuan (down 1%), and 保利 (Poly) with 18 billion yuan (down 19%) [3]. - Cumulatively, the top three companies from January to August were 保利 (Poly) with 181.2 billion yuan (down 18%), 中海 (China Overseas) with 150.3 billion yuan (down 17%), and 华润 (China Resources) with 136.8 billion yuan (down 12%) [4]. Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a "positive" outlook on the real estate sector, suggesting that quality companies in core cities will perform well despite overall market challenges [5][6]. - Recommended companies include 建发国际 (Jianfa International), 滨江集团 (Binjiang Group), and 华润置地 (China Resources Land) for their product strength, as well as companies like 新城控股 (New Town Holdings) and 越秀地产 (Yuexiu Property) for their undervalued recovery potential [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The recent policy adjustments in Beijing and Shanghai signal a shift away from pessimistic expectations in the real estate market, with a focus on stabilizing prices and promoting recovery [5]. - The Shanghai policy changes are more significant than those in Beijing, aimed at improving the housing market structure and facilitating the housing replacement chain [5]. - The report anticipates further policy relaxations in other cities like Shenzhen, following the trend set by Beijing and Shanghai [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - On August 25, 2025, Shanghai announced the relaxation of housing purchase limits, allowing families to buy unlimited properties outside the outer ring, and increasing the maximum housing provident fund loan amount to 2.16 million yuan from 1.92 million yuan [5][6]. - The new policies also include a reduction in commercial loan interest rates for second homes and the removal of the interest rate floor [5][6]. Market Analysis - The report notes a "dumbbell" structure in the Shanghai housing market, with improving prices for new homes and a rebound in second-hand homes priced below 3 million yuan [5]. - It predicts that the core cities' real estate markets are at a bottoming point and will lead the recovery [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with strong product capabilities such as China Resources Land, Longfor Group, and China Jinmao, as well as undervalued firms like New Town Holdings and China Overseas Development [5][7]. - It also highlights opportunities in the second-hand housing brokerage sector and property management companies [5][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the repeated mention of the real estate market needing to "stop falling and stabilize" indicates that the decline has not yet ceased and stability has not been achieved [1][2] - The term "stop falling and stabilize" is not a reality but rather a goal, highlighting the ongoing challenges in the market [2][4] - The overall situation of the housing market is grim, with significant declines in housing prices across major cities [4][6] Group 2 - Data shows that in July, second-hand housing prices fell across all major cities, with Beijing leading the decline at 1.1% [4][5] - New housing sales have also seen a substantial drop, with a 4.0% decrease in sales area and a 6.5% decrease in sales amount year-on-year for the first seven months [6][7] - The new construction area in July was 4,842 million square meters, down 32.6% month-on-month, indicating a lack of confidence from developers [8] Group 3 - The transaction volume for second-hand homes in Beijing dropped by 15.6% month-on-month in July, with a total of 12,784 units sold [15] - New home transactions also fell significantly, with a 27.6% decrease month-on-month in July [16] - The overall market is characterized by a high number of listings, with total listings exceeding 162,700 units, indicating a shift to a buyer's market [17] Group 4 - In response to the declining market, Beijing introduced new policies aimed at stimulating demand and stabilizing the market [18][20] - Other cities, including Shanghai, are expected to follow suit with their own measures, although many have already relaxed restrictions [21][22] - The emphasis on "stop falling and stabilize" signals a potential new round of policies aimed at market stabilization [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in residential sales prices across major cities, prompting a renewed focus on stabilizing the real estate market through supportive policies [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Direction - The recent high-level meeting emphasized the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" the real estate market, which is expected to positively influence market expectations [1]. - Experts anticipate a new round of supportive policies for the real estate sector, with cities like Beijing already implementing optimized purchasing policies and increased support for housing funds [1][2]. - The urgency and proactivity of policy measures are highlighted, with expectations for local governments to accelerate the introduction of policies that exceed previous measures [1][3]. Group 2: Urban Renewal and Housing Demand - The central government has repeatedly stressed the importance of high-quality urban renewal, with potential financial and land policies in the pipeline to support this initiative [2]. - The linkage between urban village renovations and the release of housing demand is becoming clearer, with mechanisms established for using housing vouchers to address high inventory areas [3]. - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season is seen as a critical window for boosting housing sales, particularly in key areas undergoing urban renewal [3]. Group 3: Demand-Side Strategies - Various strategies are being considered to enhance housing demand, including increasing housing fund loan limits, lowering down payment ratios, and providing greater subsidies for families with multiple children [4]. - The promotion of "old-for-new" housing exchanges and support for green and prefabricated buildings are also expected to stimulate demand for improved housing [4]. - Overall, the meeting signals that the real estate sector remains crucial for stabilizing the macro economy, with a clear focus on "stopping the decline and stabilizing" as a primary objective [4].

Group 1 - Recent adjustments to housing provident fund policies have been made in multiple regions, including Hainan, Suzhou, and Beijing, aimed at optimizing housing market conditions [1][2] - Hainan's new policy includes the acquisition of existing commercial housing for public rental use and the use of provident fund gains for purchasing housing [1] - Suzhou's policy allows for the withdrawal of housing provident funds to pay property management fees, effective from September 1, with a limit of one withdrawal per year not exceeding the actual payment [1] Group 2 - Beijing's new housing policy enhances support for provident funds by optimizing first home recognition standards, increasing loan limits for second homes, and allowing withdrawals for down payments while applying for loans [1][2] - The China Index Academy reported nearly 150 adjustments to provident fund policies across various regions in the first half of the year, focusing on increasing loan limits and extending repayment periods [1] - Experts predict that local governments will continue to adjust the use of provident funds to support urban renewal and new real estate models, which are seen as long-term measures to stabilize the housing market [2]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 李璟 北京重磅发布楼市新政引热议。 8月8日，北京市住房和城乡建设委员会、北京住房公积金管理中心联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市 房地产相关政策的通知》（简称《通知》），自2025年8月9日起施行。 消息一出，"北京楼市新政"等相关词条迅速登上互联网平台热搜。其中，放宽北京五环外限制、调整公 积金贷款二套房认定规则及贷款额度等内容引发网友关注。 业内人士普遍认为，北京此次的新政落地有利于提振市场预期，带动市场活跃度好转，进一步推动房地 产市场止跌回稳。 长江商报记者注意到，近期多地部署下半年工作，房地产相关领域仍是关注重点之一，其中，继续推动 楼市止跌回稳和城市更新是不少地方下半年的工作重点。 2025年以来，各地"因城施策"促进房地产止跌回稳，相关政策措施持续显效发力。国家统计局数据显 示，上半年全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降3.5%，比2024年同期收窄15.5个百分点，比2024年全年收 窄9.4个百分点。 调整后，在最高贷款额度方面，将二套房公积金贷款最高额度由60万元提高至100万元，大力支持改善 性住房需求。在最低首付款比例方面，将二套房公积金贷款最低首付款比例，由购 ...