Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese real estate market is showing signs of stabilization due to government policies aimed at promoting recovery, despite ongoing fluctuations in sales and prices [1][2] Group 2 - Market transaction volume has improved, with new residential property sales area declining by 3.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The sales amount of residential properties decreased by 5.5%, with a narrowing of 19.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The trading volume of second-hand houses has increased compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3 - The overall decline in market prices has narrowed, with some cities experiencing price increases [1] - In June, the year-on-year decline in new residential property prices in first, second, and third-tier cities has narrowed by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1] Group 4 - The funding sources for the real estate market have improved, with a 16.4 percentage point reduction in the decline of funds available to real estate developers compared to the same period last year [2] - Domestic loans have increased by 0.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a 6% decline in the previous year [2] - The inventory reduction has been effective, with the total area of unsold residential properties decreasing by 4.79 million square meters from May to June, marking four consecutive months of decline [2]

Report Overview - The report is the 21st issue of the weekly monitoring report on the local government debt and urban investment industry in 2025, covering the period from June 9 to June 15, 2025 [1][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The State Council Executive Meeting emphasized greater efforts to stabilize and rebound the real estate market, and incremental support policies are expected to be introduced. The real estate market still faces pressure in stabilizing and rebounding, and it is necessary to introduce incremental policies from both supply and demand sides [5][6][7] - Heilongjiang Province improved the emergency reserve fund system for debt repayment to support "bridge financing" for cities and counties with implicit debt repayment gaps. Henan Province promoted state - owned capital investment promotion and accelerated the transformation of urban investment companies into industrial investment companies [9][10] Summary by Directory 1. News Review (1) Real Estate Policy Support - On June 13, the State Council Executive Meeting proposed to build a new real - estate development model, promote the construction of "good houses" in urban renewal, and conduct a survey of real - estate land and projects. Since April, the real - estate improvement has slowed down. The meeting's emphasis on "greater efforts" signals further policy support. Local governments have also introduced measures, such as Guangzhou considering canceling restrictions and Hunan arranging for the acquisition of commercial housing as affordable housing. It is recommended to introduce incremental policies from both supply and demand sides [6][7][8] (2) Debt Management and Investment Promotion - On June 17, Heilongjiang issued a plan to improve the fiscal budget and debt management system, including establishing an emergency reserve fund system for debt repayment. Henan proposed to promote state - owned capital investment promotion and transform urban investment companies into industrial investment companies [9][10] (3) Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds - 23 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 24 bonds with a total scale of 45.37 billion yuan, an increase of 23.22 billion yuan compared with the previous value. Most of the enterprises are from the western region, and the main credit rating is AA [13] (4) Cancellation of Urban Investment Bond Issuance - Two urban investment bonds, "25 WanTouJi MTN002" and "25 HuiLinInvestment MTN001A", were cancelled this week, with a planned issuance scale of 950 million yuan. As of June 15, 58 urban investment bonds have been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 3.5348 billion yuan [14] 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds (1) Local Government Bonds - This week, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds decreased, the issuance interest rate decreased, and the spread widened. As of June 15, the issuance progress of new special bonds this year is less than 40%, and the local debt replacement progress has reached 84%. A total of 22 local bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 107.786 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.65%. The net financing decreased by 9.3513 billion yuan to - 4.3012 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate decreased by 1.83BP to 1.82%, and the weighted average spread widened by 2.87BP to 13.55BP [15][16] (2) Urban Investment Bonds - This week, the issuance scale and net financing of urban investment bonds increased, and the net financing turned positive. The issuance interest rate decreased, and the spread narrowed. A total of 176 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 126.607 billion yuan, an increase of 63.89%. The net financing increased by 1.1982 billion yuan to 1.1948 billion yuan. The overall issuance interest rate was 2.23%, a decrease of 4.19BP, and the issuance spread was 72.94BP, a decrease of 1.67BP. Seven overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 2.764 billion yuan [19] 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - The central bank conducted 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases this week, with 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates mostly declined. On June 6, 2025, Shanghai Brilliance upgraded the credit rating of Shanghai Pudong Land Holding (Group) Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA. No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week. The trading volume of local government bonds increased by 65.14% to 623.982 billion yuan, and the yield to maturity generally declined by an average of 3BP. The trading volume of urban investment bonds increased by 45.45% to 327.002 billion yuan, and the yield to maturity generally declined by an average of 3.95BP. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds narrowed. Under the broad - based criteria, 13 urban investment entities had 15 abnormal bond transactions [22][24][25] 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - 43 urban investment enterprises issued announcements regarding changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, and cumulative new borrowings this week [28]

行 业 及 产 业 房地产 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资销售两端走弱，国常会要求更大力度推动 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× caoman@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 止跌回稳 看好 ——房地产 1-5 月月报 ⚫ 投资端低位继续走弱，开工、竣工降幅收窄。从 2025 年 1-5 月累计来看，投资同比- 10.7%，较前值-0.4pct；新开工同比-22.8%，较前值+1.0pct；施工同比-9.2%，较前值 +0.5pct；竣工同比-17.3%，较前值-0.4pct。5 月单月来看，投资同比-12.0%，较前值- 0.7pct；开工同比-19.3%，较前值+2.9pct；竣工同比-19.5%，较前值+8.4pct。我们认 为，目前房地产行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The primary goal for the real estate market this year is to stabilize and stop the decline, with various opinions on when this will happen [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - According to a report from Jiayuan International, there are signs of stabilization in the real estate market, with new home sales expected to reach between 8 trillion and 8.5 trillion yuan this year [3]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that confidence in stabilization is growing, but achieving it depends on three key indicators: transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment, requiring patience [3]. - Official statements indicate that the market is moving towards stabilization, but adjustments are still needed, particularly in areas facing significant inventory pressure [3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Consumer Confidence - The current lack of confidence and income expectations among consumers is a major barrier to recovery, with many people adopting a wait-and-see approach due to concerns about employment and income stability [4]. - The real estate sector directly employs 10.12 million people and indirectly supports an additional 70.51 million jobs across various related industries, highlighting its extensive impact on the economy [5]. Group 3: Financial Implications of Real Estate - Professor Zhao Yanjing emphasizes that the underlying issue in real estate is financial rather than merely housing-related, warning that a decline in real estate could destabilize the entire financial system [8]. - A 5% drop in housing prices could lead to a wealth evaporation of 19 trillion yuan, underscoring the significant scale of the real estate market and its importance for overall economic health [8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - While there is a recognition of the importance of real estate, there is also caution against returning to past practices of rapid price increases, which could lead to negative consequences [11]. - A gradual adjustment and stabilization of housing prices is viewed as a healthier approach for the market [11].

Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, divided into three phases: housing transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3] - The core point for entering a positive cycle is the upward shift in housing price expectations due to changes in supply and demand structure, which should be a key signal for market observation [3] - Policy measures need to be more decisive to facilitate stabilization, focusing on adjusting supply and demand structures and mitigating risks from enterprises [3] - The probability of a "medium policy" scenario for the real estate fundamentals in 2025 is high, with sales performance potentially exceeding expectations due to the prolonged effects of the 926 policy [3] - A recovery in total housing sales to historically reasonable levels could lead to significant upward potential, with new housing transaction volumes likely to see greater recovery [3] Strategy - The A-share market has shown signs of improvement in early 2025, but external uncertainties are rising, impacting market dynamics [8] - The expected market rhythm for the second half of 2025 is "steady first, then rise," with upward potential dependent on comprehensive policy support [9] - Investment focus should be on certainty in uncertain environments, including opportunities from capacity cycles, high-growth sectors with low correlation to economic cycles, and dividend-paying sectors [9] Macroeconomy - The GDP growth rate has improved while prices remain weak, indicating a widening demand gap due to restrained policy measures [18] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue narrowing, contributing to a "quasi-balance" recovery [18] - The core CPI inflation is anticipated to improve slightly in the second half of the year, but overall inflation is expected to remain weak [18] New Consumption Trends - Despite overall consumption being insufficient, new consumption trends are emerging, characterized by a shift towards quality and rational spending [23] - The Z generation is becoming a key driver of the new consumption wave, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [23] - The potential for consumption in lower-tier cities is increasing as the drag from real estate weakens [23]

政策端促成"止跌回稳"仍需更大决心，推进实体市场供需结构调整的措施落地和防范化解企业端衍生风险的措施补充是短期关键。 当前房地产政策框架 主要包括三类：第一类是实体市场供需结构调节及房价预期修复政策，包括利率和限购调整、城中村改造、存量土地和住房收储，目标是尽快实现"止跌 回稳"的第一和第二阶段，但目前在剩余空间和落地约束方面仍待突破。第二类是房地产下行周期衍生风险的缓解和处置政策，目标是避免其对宏观经济 产生非线性影响，我们认为围绕企业端的资产、负债、权益调整的系统性配套政策仍待补足。第三类是面向房地产行业新模式的长期制度建设政策，目标 是修正和预防本轮周期中暴露的一些"旧模式"下的发展问题。前两类政策对于短期内促成"止跌回稳"尤为关键。 短期来看行业磨底期或还 将持续 一段时间，但中长期维度上修复空间十分可观。 我们此前在2025年度策略 《房地产：迈向止跌回稳》 中提出三种政策 强度情景；考虑到年初以来政策进展和市场表现、房地产政策约束条件的突破仍须时间、市场供需结构较历史上景气周期仍有差距，我们认为对于房地产 基本面磨底期的持续时长做充分估计，2025年演绎"中政策"情景的概率较大，其中仅销量表现由于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the real estate market in China is stabilizing and undergoing transformation, with policies implemented since September 2024 showing positive effects on market recovery [1][2][3] - The report highlights that the adjustment period for housing prices has been significant, with new and second-hand housing prices decreasing by 10.1% and 17.4% respectively as of April 2025, marking a nearly four-year adjustment cycle [2][15] - The report emphasizes that the burden of home purchasing for residents is at a 20-year low, which is a positive factor for market stabilization [2][28] Group 2 - The policy environment is entering a phase of effect verification, with a series of measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including urban village renovations and financial support [3][39] - The market is experiencing a recovery process characterized by differentiation, with new home sales showing a weak recovery trend and second-hand home transactions performing better due to price adjustments [4][40] - The report suggests that investment opportunities lie in the commercial real estate and property management sectors, recommending "three good" real estate stocks and companies with stable performance [5][10] Group 3 - The report identifies that the land market is seeing a moderate recovery in transaction volumes, with a 28% year-on-year increase in transaction value for residential land in the first four months of 2025 [4][43] - It notes that the concentration of land acquisition among leading real estate companies has reached a high level, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][39] - The report forecasts a decline in new construction area, completion area, and real estate investment by 20%, 18%, and 8% respectively for the year 2025 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [29]. Core Insights - In March 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.2%. The number of cities with declining new home prices was 41, a decrease of 4 from February, with an average decline of 0.29% [6][17]. - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase in both new and second-hand home prices, with new home prices rising by 0.1% and second-hand home prices increasing by 0.2% [6][20]. - Second-tier cities experienced stable new home prices, while second-hand home prices saw a reduced decline of 0.2% [6][20]. - Third-tier cities had a narrowing decline in new home prices of 0.2% and a decrease in second-hand home prices by 0.3% [6][20]. - The report suggests that from mid-April, attention should be focused on the real estate sector, as measures to stabilize the market are expected to accelerate, with potential policy easing in core cities [6][20]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In March 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1%, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.2%. The number of cities with declining new home prices was 41, with an average decline of 0.29% [6][17]. - First-tier cities showed a month-on-month increase in new home prices by 0.1% and second-hand home prices by 0.2% [6][20]. - Second-tier cities had stable new home prices, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.2% [6][20]. - Third-tier cities saw a decline in new home prices by 0.2% and second-hand home prices by 0.3% [6][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main lines: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [6]. 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [6]. 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, such as Gemdale Corporation and Longfor Group [6]. 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, like Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [19] Core Views - In February 2025, the new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month. The number of cities with declining prices has increased [3][10] - The report indicates that the core theme of the real estate market remains "stabilizing after a decline," with the primary task being to stimulate demand. The effectiveness of policies to boost demand is diminishing, and the market's recovery will depend on further easing measures and the progress of monetized old renovations and land reserves [3][10] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In February 2025, 45 out of 70 cities saw new home prices decline, an increase of 3 cities from January. The average decline in new home prices was 0.31%, while 65 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices, with an average decline of 0.38% [3][10] - First-tier cities showed a month-on-month increase in new home prices of 0.1%, maintaining positive growth for three consecutive months. However, second-hand home prices in these cities turned negative, with an average decline of 0.1% [3][10] - Second-tier cities saw new home prices stabilize, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%, widening the decline compared to January [3][10] - Third-tier cities experienced a 0.3% decline in new home prices, with second-hand home prices also decreasing by 0.4% [3][10] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [3] 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate [3] 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes benefiting from local government debt relief, such as Gemdale Corporation [3] 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, including Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia [3]

// 深圳楼市新政要点 // 对深圳市住房公积金贷款和利息补贴政策进行了调整优化，包括提高住房公积金贷款额度、降低公积金贷款最低首付款比例、取消异地住房公积金贷款的 户籍和首套房限制等，旨在进一步满足职工的住房需求，更好发挥住房公积金制度的保障作用。 主要要点如下： 一、住房公积金贷款最高额度提高至231万元 1、调整最高（基础）额度。个人申请最高额度从50万元提高至60万元；家庭申请最高额度从90万元提高至110万元。 2、调整最高额度上浮情形和比例。购买本市首套住房上浮比例从20%提高至40%。多子女家庭购房上浮比例从10%提高至50%。该政策适用于有两个及以 上子女的家庭，未成年和成年子女均计算在内。全国范围内有公积金贷款记录的成年子女不计入。新增购买本市保障性住房的上浮情形，上浮比例为 20%。 3、同时符合多种上浮情形可累加上浮比例，最高上浮110%，即个人最高可贷126万元，家庭最高可贷231万元。 二、调整最低首付款比例 1、职工使用住房公积金贷款购买本市首套或第二套住房的，最低首付款比例均为20%；职工使用住房公积金贷款购买本市保障性住房的，最低首付款比 例为15%。 3月16日，深圳市住房公 ...