Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with operating income of 18.495 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.417 billion, up 5.8% year-on-year [4][5]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 14.18%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance - Q1 revenue and profit growth rates were both above 5%, indicating strong resilience in the fundamentals. The year-on-year growth rates for revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders were 5.6%, 10%, and 5.8%, respectively [5]. - The net interest income and non-interest income growth rates were 11.6% and -5.8%, respectively, compared to the previous year [5]. - The loan growth rate was over 20%, with a significant increase in loans to corporate clients, which accounted for nearly 86% of new loans in Q1 [6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a coverage ratio of 370.5% [10]. - The company increased its credit impairment losses in Q1 to 4.94 billion, up 10.3% year-on-year [10]. Capital Adequacy - The core Tier 1 capital ratio, Tier 1 capital ratio, and total capital ratio were 9.32%, 10.44%, and 14.94%, respectively, all showing a decline compared to the previous year [10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company aims to maintain stable profitability, with EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 4.44, 4.82, and 5.27 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.71, 0.64, and 0.58 for the respective years [11][12].

资产规模稳步增长，开门红表现出色。截至2024 年末，公司贷款总额为1.26 万亿元，同比+14.31%，其 中对公贷款、个人贷款分别为9362.04、3101.94 亿元，同比分别+14.86%、+12.75%；公司存款总额1.50 万亿元，同比+9.26%，其中对公存款、个人存款分别为10193.69、4764.98 亿元，同比分别+8.14%、 +11.69%。一季度公司开门红情况良好，截至2025 年一季度末，公司贷款总额、存款总额分别为1.35、 1.66 万亿元，较年初分别+7.14%、+10.77%。 息差韧性充足，以量补价驱动利息净收入正增。2024 年公司净息差为1.94%，同比-10bp，降幅明显小 于行业水平；其中生息率、付息率分别为4.00%、2.36%，同比分别-22bp、-13bp，负债成本压降对息差 形成支撑。息差韧性好叠加贷款扩张快，利息净收入实现同比正增，2024 年利息净收入同比+4.62%至 266.27 亿元。2025 年一季度，公司利息净收入为77.52 亿元，同比+17.80%，预计主要系2024 年一季度 LPR 调降导致基数较低。 事件：南京银行发布2024 年 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 齐鲁银行(601665) | 投资评级 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 增持 | [Table_Author] 张晓辉 银行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080008 邮 箱：zhangxiaohui@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 齐鲁银行 2024 业绩快报点评：年末收 官业绩亮眼，资产质量持续向好 齐鲁银行 2024 三季报点评：利润增速 再提升，资本边际更为充足 齐鲁银行 2024 中报点评：县域贡献度 不断提高，资产质量持续稳中向好 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B [Table_Title] 齐鲁银行 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评：业绩 表现持续不俗，Q1 开启扩表新篇章 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 26 日 座 邮编：100031 我们认为，齐鲁银行持续处置清收存量贷款，在异地扩张 ...

中金研究 社融明显超预期，贷款余额同比增速时隔 2 年后再次回升。 M2 增速基本持平， M1 增速上升较快，流动性保持相对充 裕。财政存款仍在高位，显示财政短期仍有支持空间，意味着 4 月货币供应和经济活动仍能得到一定支撑。央行在 周日发布利好数据有利于稳定资本市场信心。货币信贷的后劲在哪里？我们认为一个重要的工具是央行的资产负债 表，在不确定性明显上升的阶段，央行扩表需要财政配合。 点击小程序查看报告原文 社融明显超预期，贷款余额同比增速时隔2年后再次回升，财政需求是最大支撑。 3月新增社融5.89万亿元，同比多增 1.06万亿元，社融同比增速从8.2%回升到8.4%（图表1），超过市场预期。与此同时，3月人民币贷款同比增速达到 7.4%，较2月贷款同比增速上升0.1个百分点，这也是2023年3月后贷款余额增速首次实现同比回升。考虑到债务置换对 信贷余额的影响，能达到这一增速说明信贷投放力度较大。根据央行主管媒体金融时报的报道，还原债务置换的影响 后，3月信贷同比增速或在8.0%以上[1]。3月政府债净融资达到1.48万亿元，同比多增1万亿元左右（图表2），是支撑 社融的最重要因素。我们认为，政府债发行较 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussions primarily focus on the macroeconomic environment, particularly the industrial goods sector and the real estate market in China, as well as the implications of U.S. monetary policy on global markets [1][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Industrial Goods Outlook**: The future direction of industrial goods is contingent on the relaxation of financial conditions versus weakening U.S. fiscal policies and uncertainties surrounding tariffs affecting manufacturing demand. There are concerns about recession risks, but recent trends suggest a stabilization in risk appetite, indicating potential for demand recovery [1][4][10]. 2. **Inflation and Employment Trends**: A decline in oil prices and marginal weakening in the U.S. job market have led to February's inflation data falling below expectations. The upcoming FOMC meeting is seen as a critical point for market sentiment. If the dot plot and Powell's statements lean hawkish, it could negatively impact risk appetite; conversely, a neutral or dovish stance could boost sentiment in industrial goods [1][5][11]. 3. **Credit and Investment Dynamics**: February's social financing data indicates strong fiscal expansion, but the private sector continues to reduce leverage. Investment and consumption willingness in the private sector remain unactivated, perpetuating a negative cycle of domestic deflation [2][6][11]. 4. **Real Estate Market Discrepancies**: The current fundamental disagreements in the real estate market revolve around the adequacy of low-priced demand to support the market. Bears argue that it lacks credit stimulation, while bulls believe that the transmission of volume to price requires time. Observations of first-tier second-hand housing prices are crucial, as stability in these prices could lead to structural recovery in new construction in the second half of the year [3][7][12]. 5. **Bond Market Sentiment**: The short-term outlook for the bond market remains bearish, with expectations of difficulty in price recovery. It is suggested to wait for clearer drivers, such as a decline in first-tier second-hand housing prices or a peak in real estate transactions, before making strategic moves. If first-tier housing prices stabilize, a shift in the bond market direction may occur [8][13]. Additional Important Insights - The discussions highlight the importance of monitoring the German parliament's voting on defense spending, which could influence European economic contributions [4]. - The emphasis on the need for more evidence regarding the stabilization of first-tier housing prices suggests a cautious approach to investment in the real estate sector [7][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the macroeconomic landscape, particularly in relation to industrial goods and real estate, while also considering the implications of U.S. monetary policy.