息差是银行的收入来源，但它同时要覆盖银行的运营成本，以及坏账。 比如，当息差为1.8%，如果1%的部分用于银行日常运营成本，那么，坏账率只要超过0.8%，银行就会 亏本。 那么一般说来，银行息差的生存生死线是多少呢？ 上周在知识星球收到一个提问，大意是有个小作文，说是可能会有新的房地产支持政策，主要涉及到贴 息，降契税等。 说起贴息，很多人可能感到奇怪，说银行降息不就行了吗？为什么要贴息？ 这个也是前几天有个读者在我文章评论区提过的问题。 答案，在于银行的息差。 是1.5%。 而现在工行，建行，中行，农行的最新季度息差则分别为：1.28%，1.36%，1.26%，1.3%，已经全部低 于息差生死线。所以，继续收窄息差是不可能的，只能采用贴息的方式来降息。 但贴息需要成本，需要有人出这个钱，那么问题来了，钱从哪里来？ 如果从纳税人的税金来，或是从国家有限制的发债（财政赤字）而来，那么贴息的额度就是有上限，有 制约的。 很多人把发债说成是印钞，放水什么的，这个其实是有制度制约的。为了帮大家理解水是怎么放的，我 们必须先从美联储的制度制约说起（因为我们的发债制度也是借鉴的美联储）。 一般来说，美政府发债，美联储是不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran emphasizes the need to reassess regulatory frameworks for Wall Street before addressing other economic issues related to the central bank's balance sheet [1] Group 1: Regulatory Environment - Financial regulation has predominantly moved in one direction, increasingly tightening restrictions on the banking sector [1] - The interaction between regulation, financial markets, and the execution of monetary policy is often undervalued [1] - Discussions surrounding bank reserve balances, their interest, balance sheet composition, and the role of intermediaries in the Treasury market are seen as downstream issues of the banking regulatory framework [1] Group 2: Historical Context and Changes - Some officials during the Trump administration considered relaxing several capital regulatory measures established after the 2008 financial crisis, including the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio [1] - The Federal Reserve has recently finalized modifications to the regulatory rating framework for large banks, easing requirements for certain lending institutions [1] Group 3: Recommendations and Transparency - Regulatory bodies should avoid overreacting and recognize that post-2008 crisis rules have been overly stringent, leading to a migration of traditional banking activities to less regulated areas due to cumbersome regulations [1] - Miran advocates for the Federal Reserve to enhance transparency, which would benefit both the public and the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Milan, nominated by President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasizes the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence and its dual mandate of "price stability and maximum employment" [1][2] Group 1: Nomination and Responsibilities - Milan's nomination aims to fill the remaining term of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, which ends on January 31, 2026 [1] - If confirmed, Milan will complete Kugler's remaining term rather than becoming a permanent member [1] Group 2: Policy Stance and Economic Analysis - Trump has long advocated for significantly lowering borrowing costs, while Milan has previously criticized the Fed's aggressive stimulus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Milan commits to making decisions based on macroeconomic analysis and long-term optimization if confirmed [2] Group 3: Independence and Oversight - Milan stresses the importance of the Federal Open Market Committee's independence and its responsibility to serve the American public [2] - He expresses concerns regarding the Fed's activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly related to the central bank's balance sheet [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, stated that price stability will not be affected by the condition of the central bank's balance sheet [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan emphasizes its commitment to maintaining price stability regardless of its asset and liability situation [1] - Uchida's comments reflect confidence in the central bank's ability to manage monetary policy effectively [1] - The statement may influence market perceptions regarding the Bank of Japan's future monetary policy actions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that social financing (社融) has significantly exceeded expectations, with the loan balance year-on-year growth rate rebounding after two years, primarily supported by fiscal demand [2][11] - In March, new social financing reached 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.06 trillion yuan year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate rising from 8.2% to 8.4%, surpassing market expectations [2][4] - The net financing of government bonds in March reached 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating that rapid government bond issuance may lead to quicker commencement of key investment projects this year [2][4] Group 2 - M2 growth rate remained stable at 7.0%, while M1 growth rate increased from 0.1% in February to 1.6% in March, indicating relatively ample liquidity [7][11] - In March, short-term loans for enterprises increased by 460 billion yuan year-on-year, totaling 1.44 trillion yuan, while corporate loan rates remained unchanged at 3.30% [7][8] - The actual financing scale for enterprises in March remained roughly the same as last year, with net financing for the enterprise sector at 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating stability in overall financing demand [7][8] Group 3 - Fiscal deposits remain high, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.9% in March, suggesting significant potential for fiscal support in the near term [11][13] - The central bank's decision to release favorable data on a Sunday is seen as a strategy to stabilize market confidence ahead of the Monday opening [13][14] - The central bank's balance sheet relative to GDP is at a historically low level, providing potential for expansion, which could help lower risk premiums in uncertain economic conditions [13][14]