Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates remains high, and the risk appetite in the Chinese market has weakened. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the approaching peak season provides strong price support, but the marginal cooling of sentiment may increase the upward resistance of copper prices [1]. - The Fed Chair signaled dovishness, increasing market expectations of a September interest - rate cut. The relatively low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the marginal improvement in demand provide price support, but the aluminum price may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - The Fed's high probability of interest - rate cuts and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector, along with the marginal narrowing of lead ingot supply, are expected to drive lead prices to run strongly [4]. - There is a divergence between the macro background and the industrial situation of zinc. Although the short - term decline space is limited, it is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern [6]. - The supply of tin is expected to decrease significantly in the short term, while the demand is in the off - season. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive the non - ferrous metals including nickel to strengthen. The nickel price has limited downward space and is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - The lithium carbonate market lacks positive drivers and continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas supply and industrial news [10]. - After the sharp decline of alumina futures prices, the downward space is limited, but the oversupply pattern makes it difficult to support a continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - With the approaching of the traditional consumption peak season, the stainless - steel consumption is expected to increase [14]. - The casting aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. With strong cost support and increasing market activity, the price may run at a high level in the short term [16]. Summary by Metal Types Copper - LME copper closed at $9974/ton, down 0.39%, and SHFE copper closed at 80260 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 158575 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 8.5%. In China, SHFE copper warrants slightly decreased to 19,000 tons. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2614/ton, down 0.29%, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20725 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions slightly increased to 557,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 60,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the aluminum price may fluctuate [3]. Lead - SHFE lead index closed up 0.09% at 16866 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1993/ton. The supply of lead concentrates is tight, and the smelting start - up rate is high. The lead price is expected to be strong [4]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index closed down 0.16% at 22284 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2864/ton. The supply of zinc concentrates is increasing, the smelting volume is expanding, and the demand has not improved significantly. The zinc price is expected to oscillate at a low level [6]. Tin - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the supply of tin in Yunnan is short. The output of refined tin in September is expected to decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand is in the off - season, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate [7]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved, and the demand for stainless - steel production is expected to increase. The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the nickel price is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 1.91%. The market lacks positive drivers and continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas supply [10]. Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.99% to 2990 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are in an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The traditional consumption peak season is approaching, and the demand is expected to increase [14]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract fell slightly to 20285 yuan/ton. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price may run at a high level [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a daily overview of the non - ferrous metals market, including price movements, inventory changes, and supply - demand analysis for various metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy. It also offers short - term price forecast ranges for each metal [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price**: Last week, LME copper rose 2.26% to $9,879/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,920 yuan/ton. This week, SHFE copper is expected to trade between 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M between $9,600 - 10,000/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: Three major exchanges' inventory decreased by 20,000 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 19,000 to 82,000 tons, LME decreased by 8,000 to 91,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 7,000 to 190,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 3,000 tons [2]. - **Supply - demand**: Copper raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is structurally low. However, the consumption toughness of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and Chinese exports are increasing, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices [2]. Aluminum - **Price**: On Friday, LME aluminum rose 0.39% to $2,595/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton. The expected trading range for SHFE aluminum is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,550 - 2,620/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures warehouse receipts decreased by 8,000 to 34,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 4,000 to 314,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 8,000 to 345,000 tons [4]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, providing strong support for prices. But as prices rise, the negative feedback from the consumption side increases, restricting upward movement [4]. Lead - **Price**: On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.55% to 17,126 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2,031.5/ton. The overall lead price is expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of SHFE lead may be limited [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory is 45,900 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 50,300 tons. LME lead inventory is 273,300 tons [5]. - **Supply - demand**: Primary supply remains high, while secondary supply is tight. Lead - acid battery prices stop falling and rise, and downstream procurement improves [5]. Zinc - **Price**: On Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.79% to 22,377 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,770/ton. The strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter may cause market sentiment disturbances, and the LME Cash - 3S structure boosts zinc prices [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory is 6,400 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,500 tons. LME zinc inventory is 119,900 tons [6]. - **Supply - demand**: Zinc ore supply remains high, and TC continues to rise. There is a high expectation of zinc ingot production increase, but some smelters' production changes affect inventory accumulation [6]. Tin - **Price**: Last week, tin prices fluctuated upward. Domestic tin prices are expected to trade between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin between $31,000 - 34,000/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the national major market tin ingot social inventory is 9,266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from last Friday [7]. - **Supply - demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, and upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell. However, terminal demand is weak, and the industry chain is in a stalemate [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. The recommended operation is to short at high prices. SHFE nickel is expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M between $14,500 - 16,500/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: The combined domestic and LME visible inventory is 240,000 tons, a decrease of 726 tons from last week [8]. - **Supply - demand**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens, which may lead to a downward trend [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: On Friday, the MMLC late - session price was 61,177 yuan, up 1.16% from the previous working day. The expected trading range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 62,600 - 64,000 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level, and the trend may continue until the beginning of the peak season in August [10]. - **Supply - demand**: The fundamentals have not changed substantially. Although prices have rebounded, the supply - clearing process slows down, and the upward space is limited [10]. Alumina - **Price**: On June 27, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.29% to 2,990 yuan/ton. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - **Inventory**: On Friday, the futures warehouse receipts were 30,300 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous trading day [12]. - **Supply - demand**: The alumina production capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change, and prices are expected to be anchored by costs [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory is 112,327 tons, a decrease of 119 tons from the previous day. The social inventory decreased to 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 0.25% [15]. - **Supply - demand**: The market supply exceeds demand, and demand is weak. Although there are production - cut news, the pattern has not changed [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: Last week, the AD2511 contract rose 0.76% to 19,790 yuan/ton. It is expected to trade in a short - term volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the change of the premium over the spot [17]. - **Inventory**: The domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot social inventory continued to increase, and the total of social and factory inventory increased [17]. - **Supply - demand**: In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and prices mainly follow the cost - side (mainly affected by aluminum prices) [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. Core Views Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation. Although the ore end provides some price support, the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable, production remains high, and demand improvement is slow. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating. The fundamental pressure remains, but the tight near - month warehouse receipts provide support. In the short term, the market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand expectations. It is advisable to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore end. The demand side is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the long - term, it is advisable to short - sell on rallies, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term downward adjustment space of the futures price is limited, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the short - term price may reach around 20,500 yuan/ton, and in the third quarter, there is downward pressure, with the lowest support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate in the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. 1 imported nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The LME 0 - 3 spread remained unchanged, and the futures import profit and loss improved by 5.75% [1]. Electrowinning Cost - The cost of integrated MHP and external - procurement methods for producing electrowinning nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. New Energy Material Prices - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.36%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and imports increased by 8.18%. SHFE, social, and LME inventories all decreased [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 11.54% [4]. Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%. The price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month. Imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85%. Social inventories increased by 2.04% [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.42 - 0.47% [6]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. Total inventory increased by 1.49%, downstream inventory decreased by 6.47%, and smelter inventory increased by 8.54% [6]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 0.11%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 20.74% [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, refined tin production decreased by 2.37%. SHEF and LME inventories changed [8]. Zinc Price and Basis - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%. The import profit and loss improved by 1.10% [10]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%. Galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide开工率 changed. Social and LME inventories decreased [10]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%. The average price of alumina decreased slightly [13]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41%. Aluminum product开工率 decreased, and social and LME inventories decreased [13]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%. The import profit and loss decreased [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%. Import copper concentrate index decreased, and domestic port copper concentrate inventory increased. Electrolytic copper and recycled copper制杆开工率 changed, and inventories in different locations changed [14].