Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, with potential for price increases due to limited supply and incremental demand, despite short - term downward pressure from inventory and geopolitical factors [1] - Aluminum is expected to perform relatively strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence, despite overall pressure on non - ferrous metals [1] - Zinc has weak short - term support under the background of recession expectations, but long - term supply may be tight [4] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, influenced by bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [6] - Stainless steel is expected to follow nickel and trade in a range, with a generally weak fundamental situation [8] - Lead is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, affected by overseas inventory and recycled lead profit [10] - Tin's price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity. It has strong upward potential if liquidity is loose, but large downward space if liquidity tightens [14] - Industrial silicon's price is expected to fluctuate with cost in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term due to over - capacity [17] - Lithium carbonate's future price movement depends on factors such as the speed of warehouse receipt clearance and Zimbabwe's export policy, with the short - term market driven by macro factors [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated downward, mainly due to macro - geopolitical disturbances. The supply of scrap copper is tight, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper is increasing, which may lead to further depletion of refined copper inventory. The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium - term and suggests paying attention to the support at 93,000 - 96,000 [1] Aluminum - Affected by the Iran crisis, some aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is affected. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, and the overall non - ferrous metals are under pressure. However, aluminum is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence [1] Zinc - The medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated above 250,000 tons. The short - term support is weak under the background of recession expectations [4] Nickel - The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with domestic inventory accumulation and slight de - stocking in LME. With supply - side policy interventions, nickel prices are expected to trade in a range [6] Stainless Steel - The supply has decreased slightly, the demand is gradually recovering, and the cost has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly this week. It is expected to follow nickel and trade in a range [8] Lead - The primary lead production is resuming, while the recycled lead production is delayed. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory has decreased by nearly 10,000 tons this week. The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated downward, facing great pressure due to liquidity concerns. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity [14] Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with cost. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [17] Lithium Carbonate - In March, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the market is mainly driven by macro factors. The future price movement depends on factors such as the speed of warehouse receipt clearance and Zimbabwe's export policy [19]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals market is experiencing significant differentiation due to macroeconomic policies and supply-demand dynamics, with copper and zinc prices declining due to weak demand, while aluminum shows signs of rebound, and nickel, tin, and lead are being re-evaluated due to supply changes [1]. Copper - Copper prices are under pressure primarily due to weak demand, exacerbated by macroeconomic factors such as global stock market volatility and geopolitical risks [2]. - Supply disruptions, like strikes in Chilean copper mines, provide some support, but actual consumption in China is sluggish, leading to a buildup of social inventory and a shift from premium to discount pricing [2]. - Short-term outlook suggests continued high-level fluctuations, with a need to monitor macro events like non-farm payroll data for potential volatility [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market faces challenges from macroeconomic disturbances, including conflicting employment data in the U.S. and a strong dollar, which limit upward price movement [3]. - Demand is weakened by seasonal effects and environmental production limits, leading to reduced operating rates in aluminum processing enterprises and rising social inventories [3]. - Short-term aluminum prices may remain optimistic, but recovery is contingent on post-holiday demand rebound and macroeconomic stabilization [3]. Zinc - Zinc prices are dominated by bearish sentiment, with significant declines observed due to a strong dollar and falling global stock markets [4][5]. - The domestic zinc market is under pressure from weak terminal consumption and high prices, leading to active price reductions by holders [5]. - Short-term expectations indicate continued weak performance, with prices likely to remain under pressure around 24,500 yuan/ton [5]. Lead - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with a strong dollar and stock market declines impacting risk appetite [6]. - Supply is marginally relaxed due to stable primary lead production and increased imports, while demand from the lead-acid battery sector is low due to seasonal effects [6]. - Short-term lead prices are expected to remain weak, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and overseas supply, although low inventory levels provide some support [6]. Nickel - Nickel prices are pressured by high inventory levels and weak demand from the stainless steel and new energy battery sectors [7]. - The market is currently adjusting expectations regarding supply disruptions and demand from new energy sectors [7]. - Short-term outlook suggests continued weak fluctuations, with a need for new driving factors to emerge [7]. Tin - Tin market dynamics are influenced by supply recovery from Myanmar and stable conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, alleviating previous supply concerns [8]. - Demand is showing a split between traditional electronics and emerging sectors, with insufficient growth in new areas to offset seasonal weaknesses [8]. - Short-term tin prices may enter a phase of adjustment, with close monitoring required on supply recovery and demand signals [8]. Market Strategy - The macroeconomic landscape should be closely monitored for signals regarding Federal Reserve policy shifts, geopolitical risks, and Chinese economic data [9]. - In the copper and aluminum sectors, a range-bound trading strategy is recommended, with attention to emerging demand and supply disruptions [10]. - For nickel and tin, caution is advised regarding high inventory levels and supply recovery expectations, awaiting substantial demand improvement signals [11].

Copper - Copper prices showed a weak fluctuation overnight, with domestic refined copper maintaining a narrowing import loss [3][12] - The macroeconomic context includes a decrease in the US JOLTS job openings to 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020, and the European Central Bank's decision to keep the deposit rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 180,575 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 2,036 tons to 532,005 tons [3][12] - The current copper market faces fundamental issues, and prices may experience fluctuations around the Spring Festival, suggesting caution in chasing higher prices [3][12] - However, rigid constraints on copper mines and certainty in future demand imply that any significant drop in prices could attract long-term investment and industrial buying, providing a solid foundation for medium to long-term price increases [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.1% to $15,115 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.14% to 121,180 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME inventory decreased by 240 tons to 286,074 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,392 tons to 50,464 tons [4][13] - Nickel ore and nickel pig iron prices are showing strength, indicating concerns over resource supply tightness, with cost support continuing to rise [4][13] - The stainless steel market is experiencing inventory accumulation due to the upcoming Spring Festival, although supply-side repairs are prevalent [4][13] - Market sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in nickel prices, but strong cost support remains, suggesting potential trading opportunities near cost lines [4][5][13] Alumina & Aluminum - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at 2,822 yuan per ton, up 1.15% [6][14] - SHFE aluminum experienced a weak fluctuation, with AL2603 closing at 23,570 yuan per ton, down 0.23% [6][14] - Recent regional alumina maintenance has led to supply disruptions, causing inventory accumulation as downstream stocking approaches its end [6][14] - The domestic aluminum water ratio is weakening, and high prices are suppressing demand, with downstream buyers reducing or canceling pre-holiday stockpiling [6][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak fluctuation, with the main contract closing at 8,605 yuan per ton, down 2.77% [7][15] - Polysilicon prices also declined, with the main contract closing at 49,550 yuan per ton, down 1.52% [7][15] - The supply of silicon ore is shrinking as companies enter winter maintenance, while downstream sectors are also undergoing repairs due to the Spring Festival [7][15] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with silicon material prices under pressure, and attention is needed on inventory levels and potential production cuts [7][15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 10.68% to 132,780 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping by 9,000 yuan to 144,000 yuan per ton [8][16] - Weekly production decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 790 tons [8][16] - The market sentiment has turned negative, leading to a significant drop in lithium carbonate prices, and downstream purchasing is expected to cool off after pre-holiday stockpiling [8][16] - The overall market lacks clear bullish drivers, and attention should be paid to trading opportunities following price corrections [8][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to stabilize. The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops, alleviating the surplus expectation [4]. - Aluminum prices are supported. Although the domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate and the downstream demand is still weak, the LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and the domestic inventory performance is better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize [6]. - The lead industry is currently weak. The apparent inventory of lead ore rises, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC remains low, the production rate of primary lead remains at a relatively high level, and the primary lead ingot accumulates. The waste inventory of secondary lead rises, the secondary lead smelting profit declines slightly, but the production rate of secondary lead rises marginally. The production rate of downstream battery enterprises declines slightly, and both the smelting finished product inventory and social inventory rise [8]. - Zinc prices are still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute rise of the sector. The raw material inventory of zinc ore rises, the decline rate of zinc ore slows down, the inventory accumulation of LME zinc ingots slows down, the spread between 3 - 15 months of LME zinc rises, and the Shanghai - London ratio drops again. The rise in overseas natural gas prices causes concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. The zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows. After the market sentiment fades, the trading focus of zinc prices may return to the industrial logic [10][11]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The supply and demand of tin ingots are marginally loose, and the inventory has been rising steadily recently. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. The market may return to real - world trading from expected trading. The premium of refined nickel over ferronickel remains high, and the production of refined nickel is expected to increase significantly in January. The continuous increase of domestic nickel inventory in the past three weeks has significantly dragged down the nickel price [16]. - For lithium carbonate, although the fundamental improvement expectation remains unchanged, the current commodity market has large fluctuations, and the market atmosphere has a greater impact than the fundamental changes. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously or try with a light position [20]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to fluctuate downward, the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see mainly, and pay attention to the supply - side policy, Guinea ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. - For stainless steel, although the market fluctuated significantly last week and the price of precious metals fell sharply on Friday, dragging down the non - ferrous metal sector, the cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the core upward logic has not changed. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, although the demand is relatively average, the short - term price is supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The US dollar index continued to rise, precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined. The LME 3M copper closed down 1.3% to $12,900/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,820 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory decreased by 300 to 174,675 tons, with Asian inventory decreasing and European and American inventory increasing. The cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly month - on - month, the bonded area inventory decreased month - on - month, the SHFE daily warrant increased by 0.2 to 159,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 130 yuan/ton to the futures, and the spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 265 yuan/ton to the futures. The import loss of Shanghai copper spot was about 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,350 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month [3]. Strategy View - Trump plans to launch a strategic critical mineral reserve plan, and the gold price has stabilized. The manufacturing PMIs of the US and the eurozone are better than expected, and the sentiment has eased marginally. Although the new Fed Chairman's monetary policy is moderately hawkish, interest rate cuts are still an important means to promote the reshaping of the US manufacturing industry, and the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops, alleviating the surplus expectation. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for the LME 3M copper is $12,600 - 13,300/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The sharp decline in silver led to the spread of pessimistic sentiment, and the decline in crude oil caused the aluminum price to drop significantly. The LME aluminum closed down 2.52% to $3,056/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,530 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 75,000 to 668,000 lots, and the futures warrant increased by 5,000 to 150,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 29,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory increased by 14,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods was raised, and the demand was weak. The spot in East China was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and the downstream procurement sentiment was cautious. The LME aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1,000 to 497,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount [5]. Strategy View - The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and the downstream demand is still weak due to high prices and the off - season, but it does not constitute a major negative for the price. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, so the aluminum price is still strongly supported. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and the domestic inventory performance is better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,000 - 3,120/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - On Monday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 1.21% to 16,714 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 104,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S lead fell 44.5 to $1,959.5/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 171,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,525 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 95 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 205,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancellation warrant was 18,600 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 45.87 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 131.5 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.232, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 339.74 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 2 was 39,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with January 29 [7]. Strategy View - The apparent inventory of lead ore rises, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC remains low, the production rate of primary lead remains at a relatively high level, and the primary lead ingot accumulates. The waste inventory of secondary lead rises, the secondary lead smelting profit declines slightly, but the production rate of secondary lead rises marginally. The production rate of downstream battery enterprises declines slightly, and both the smelting finished product inventory and social inventory rise. The expectation of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman on January 30 led to the ebb of market sentiment, and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector are currently fluctuating greatly. The US ISM manufacturing PMI on February 2 was 52.6, higher than the previous forecast, which alleviated the panic sentiment to some extent [8]. Zinc Market Information - On Monday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 5.17% to 24,524 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 215,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S zinc fell 130.5 to $3,268.5/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 239,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,970 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was - 45 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 95 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 15 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was - 30 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 45 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 90 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 110,000 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancellation warrant was 13,500 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 8.41 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 70.48 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.083, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,579.4 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 2 was 111,200 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons compared with January 29 [9]. Strategy View - In the industrial end, the raw material inventory of zinc ore rises, and the decline rate of zinc ore slows down. The inventory accumulation of LME zinc ingots slows down, the spread between 3 - 15 months of LME zinc rises, and the Shanghai - London ratio drops again. The rise in overseas natural gas prices causes concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. On January 29, the new government of Bolivia stopped a zinc ore development project awarded to a Chinese consortium, with a designed processing capacity of 150,000 tons of concentrates. Coupled with the fact that the zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows, the zinc price is still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute rise of the sector. The expectation of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman on January 30 led to the ebb of market sentiment, and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector are currently fluctuating greatly. The US ISM manufacturing PMI on February 2 was 52.6, higher than the previous forecast, which alleviated the panic sentiment to some extent. The trading focus of zinc prices may return to the industrial logic in the future [10][11]. Tin Market Information - On February 2, the tin price dived in the morning and then hit the daily limit. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 392,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0% compared with the previous day. The SHFE inventory was 8,097 tons, a decrease of 527 tons compared with the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, and the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two places recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient, and there were both constraints on the scrap end and high - price wait - and - see from downstream. The short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and the spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory before the Spring Festival was still not obvious, mostly holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure brought by the overall rise of the metal sector to the terminal industry, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the现货 market was limited. As of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,556 tons, an increase of 555 tons compared with last Friday [12]. Strategy View - The price of precious metals fell sharply on Friday, and the market may return to real - world trading in the short term. Under the background of the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is expected that the tin price will fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 51,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - On February 2, the nickel price dropped significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 129,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.39% compared with the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 7,250 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of cost, the price of nickel ore remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, the same as the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $23/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of ferronickel, the price fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,054 yuan/nickel point, the same as the previous day [15]. Strategy View - It is believed that the nickel price will be weak in the short term. On the one hand, although the expectation of the reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia still exists, with the end of the phased upward trend of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the market may return to real - world trading from expected trading. On the other hand, the premium of refined nickel over ferronickel remains high. Under the background of the conversion of ferronickel to high - grade nickel matte, it is expected that the production of refined nickel will increase significantly in January. At present, the domestic nickel inventory has increased significantly for three consecutive weeks, which significantly drags down the nickel price. Therefore, whether from the perspective of the overall surplus or the high premium of refined nickel in the structure, the nickel price has a large risk of decline. The short - term operating range of the Shanghai nickel price is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3M nickel contract is $16,000 - 18,000/ton [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 141,158 yuan in the evening session, a decrease of 8.99% compared with the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,500 - 150,600 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 13,900 yuan (- 8.94%) compared with the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 130,000 - 147,500 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 9.31% compared with the previous day. The closing price of the LC26

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Copper: The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper remain good, with supply - side capital expenditure constraints supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom. Short - term prices are likely to stay strong due to the structural imbalance of global inventories and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak at high prices. Focus on changes in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99000 - 100000 support level [1]. - Zinc: The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, but the import window for zinc ore is opening, limiting the downside space of TC. The supply pressure of refined zinc is relieved, and demand is suppressed. Overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and pressure from the expected supply of imported ore and weak demand feedback. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 23300 - 23400 support level [4]. - Nickel: The nickel market has seen significant price fluctuations. The unclear result of the 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market sentiment. High nickel prices have restricted downstream transactions, and the supply and demand situation is complex. Short - term prices are expected to adjust in a wide range, with the main contract running in the 132000 - 142000 range [6]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is mainly driven by nickel raw materials. The unclear nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market expectations. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand in the off - season is weak. The cost support from the ore end and nickel - iron is strengthened. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the 13400 - 14200 range [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market has seen a significant increase in the price center last week. The supply - side shock expectation is strengthened, and demand is expected to be optimistic. The inventory situation has changed, with upstream inventory increasing and downstream inventory decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, with a focus on the 150000 breakthrough and liquidity risks [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. Supply may decrease by 1 - 20,000 tons, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Exports may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton range [11]. - Polysilicon: In January, the polysilicon market is in a weak - demand situation, with high inventory and price pressure. There is a need for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. Pay attention to the impact of antitrust news, the possibility of production cuts, and the redistribution of industrial chain profits. The 50000 yuan/ton level may provide support, and trading is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Tin: The short - term price of tin is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. The supply side may be affected by the situation in Congo (Kinshasa), and demand shows regional differences. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and operations should be cautious [13]. - Alumina: The alumina market has been oscillating widely. The supply is rigid, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract in the 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton range. A rebound depends on capacity - control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price has risen strongly, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices, and inventory starting to accumulate. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at a high level, with the main contract in the 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton range [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum - alloy market has shown a strong trend, mainly driven by cost factors. However, the supply and demand are both weak, with supply affected by raw - material shortages and demand being suppressed by high prices. Inventory has been gradually decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract in the 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 100275 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.77%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased to 41.94 dollars/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24170 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.58%. The import profit and loss was - 1887 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased to 141900 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 4.80%. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 196 dollars/ton [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained at 13800 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 increased to - 85 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 140000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.08%. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 was - 580 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 9650 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased to 25 yuan/ton [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 was 55000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.90%. The main contract price dropped to 51300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased to 349750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.49%. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to 370 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 24030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.12%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum was 176.8 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 23700 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to - 105 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a 6.80% increase month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 27.11 million tons, a 3.90% decrease [1]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a 7.24% decrease month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 1.82 million tons, a 3.22% decrease [4]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month. The import volume in November increased by 30.08% [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, a 4.04% increase month - on - month. The demand decreased by 2.50% [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the expected production of industrial silicon may decrease to 38 - 39 million tons. The demand is expected to decline by about 1 million tons [11]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production was 11.55 million tons, a 0.79% increase month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 2041.76% [12]. - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81% month - on - month. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly [13]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a 1.08% increase month - on - month. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [15]. Inventory Data - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 14.61% week - on - week to 27.38 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 1.49% day - on - day to 13.90 million tons [1]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 11.69% week - on - week to 11.85 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.51% day - on - day to 10.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 2.43% week - on - week to 46650 tons. LME inventory increased by

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The market has a dovish expectation for the Fed's December interest rate cut, with an 87% probability, leading to a positive risk - appetite and a strong performance in the non - ferrous metals sector. However, China's November official manufacturing PMI is 49.2, indicating a weak economic recovery. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends based on their own industrial fundamentals [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - **LME Non - ferrous Metals Futures Prices**: Copper is at $11,159 with a 2.03% change, aluminum at $2,873 with a 1.75% change, nickel at $14,880 with a 0.24% change, tin at $38,945 with a 1.89% change, and zinc at $2,01 with a 1.14% change. The 15:00 futures prices also show corresponding changes [1]. - **SHFE Non - ferrous Metals Futures Prices**: Aluminum is at 21,730 yuan with a 1.4% change, nickel at 117,850 yuan with a 0.66% change, and tin at 308,200 yuan with a 2.73% change [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - **LME Inventory**: Total LME copper inventory is 152,950 tons, zinc is 52,025 tons, aluminum is 537,900 tons, nickel is 254,364 tons, and tin is 3,160 tons, with corresponding changes in inventory and warehouse - receipt cancellation ratios [1][2]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Copper inventory is 97,930 tons with a - 11.46% change, zinc is 95,916 tons with a - 4.42% change, aluminum is 115,277 tons with a - 6.82% change, nickel is 40,782 tons with a 2.48% change, and tin is 3,356 tons with a 2.09% change [2]. Premium and Discount Indicators - **LME Premium and Discount**: Copper's premium changes from 16.6 to 44.7 dollars/ton, zinc from 165.4 to 224.4 dollars/ton, aluminum from - 28.5 to - 26 dollars/ton, nickel from - 197.1 to - 196.8 dollars/ton [2]. - **SHFE Premium and Discount**: Copper has no data, zinc changes from 50 to 10 yuan/ton, aluminum from - 40 to - 50 yuan/ton [2]. Price Ratio and Spread Indicators - **Shanghai - London Price Ratio**: Copper's ratio changes from 7.83 to 7.92 with a 1.05% change, zinc from 7.34 to 7.32 with a - 0.36% change, aluminum from 7.52 to 7.56 with a 0.5% change, nickel from 7.87 to 7.89 with a 0.25% change, and tin from 7.83 to 7.87 with a 0.44% change [2]. - **SHFE Near - Month to Third - Consecutive - Month Spread**: Copper's spread changes from 60 to - 80 yuan/ton, zinc from - 90 to - 80 yuan/ton, and aluminum from - 790 to - 780 yuan/ton [2]. Metal - Specific Analysis - **Copper**: The market sentiment is positive, and the industrial side has support. Chile's state - owned copper company offers a high premium for 2026 copper, indicating concerns about refined copper shortages. The price is expected to remain strong [2]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the industrial driving force is limited. With the deepening of the domestic off - season, the ingot - casting rate increases, and the social inventory remains stable. The price is expected to rise further [2]. - **Zinc**: The macro - sentiment improves, and the supply is expected to decrease significantly. The domestic and foreign inventory differentiation trend slows down, and the price is expected to be volatile and strong [2]. - **Nickel**: The 12 - month interest - rate cut expectation rises, and the geopolitical concerns ease. The Indonesian nickel - related policy has a limited impact for now. The global nickel inventory continues to accumulate, and the price may follow the macro - trend. Short - term low - buying within the range is recommended [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices reached a record high this week and then declined. Although the long - term demand outlook for copper is optimistic due to factors such as tight copper concentrate supply and increasing demand from computing power construction, short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Copper operating in the range of 85,000 - 89,000. It is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. - Aluminum prices are in a high - level upward oscillation. However, as the rainy season in Guinea ends and alumina prices weaken, there is downward pressure on ore prices. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits at high levels for aluminum - related products [2]. - Zinc prices are in a relatively strong oscillation. Although the processing fees of zinc ore have decreased, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain at a high level. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will maintain an oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 23,000, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. - Lead prices are in a sideways oscillation. Supply is decreasing, but downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices. Considering the strong production and consumption demand and the temporary truce in the Sino - US trade war, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation. It is recommended to go long at low levels within the range of 17,100 - 17,800 [2]. - Nickel prices are in an intra - range oscillation and decline. The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market remains in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai Nickel operating in the range of 119,000 - 123,000; for stainless steel, it is also recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,400 - 12,900 [3]. - Tin prices are in a high - level oscillation and overall upward trend. Although tin ore supply is expected to improve, downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai Tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. - Industrial silicon prices are in an oscillatory adjustment. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products such as polysilicon and organic silicon have changed. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon storage platform and production reduction [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining certificates in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - From October 27th to November 2nd, important economic data were released. China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showed good growth. The Sino - US leaders held a meeting, and the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus on tariff and export control measures. China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the eurozone's GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. The US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, but it is expected to face difficulties in the House of Representatives [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. 3.2 Copper - Price trend: Reached a record high and then declined, expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply of copper concentrate is tight, but short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Investment advice: Exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price trend: High - level upward oscillation, with the oscillation range broken through [46]. - Fundamental factors: The rainy season in Guinea ends, alumina prices weaken, the operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the inventory increases. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases slightly, and downstream demand is affected by the transition from peak to off - peak season [2]. - Investment advice: Reduce positions and take profits at high levels [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price trend: Relatively strong oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc ore processing fees have decreased, smelter production enthusiasm is high, terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level [2]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price trend: Sideways oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is decreasing, downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices, but production and consumption demand are strong [2]. - Investment advice: Go long at low levels within the range [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price trend: Intra - range oscillation and decline [3]. - Fundamental factors: The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market is in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation [3]. - Investment advice: Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price trend: High - level oscillation and overall upward trend [3]. - Fundamental factors: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumption is weak [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Price trend: Oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Fundamental factors: The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products have changed, and the production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: Wide - range oscillation [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, downstream demand is strong, and there are uncertainties in mining certificates [3]. - Investment advice: Trade cautiously [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall sentiment remains positive despite a slight retreat in market bullishness after the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the Fed's expected rate cut. The probability of a further rate cut in December is low but not a major negative. [2][3] - For copper, with tight raw material supply and low inventories, copper prices are expected to be well - supported after a correction. [3] - For aluminum, supply disruptions and low domestic inventories are likely to drive aluminum prices to fluctuate strongly. [5] - For lead, due to de - stocking of visible lead ore inventories, improved demand, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term. [8] - For zinc, with zinc ore inventory accumulation, high structural risks in LME zinc, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [11] - For tin, short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and with the peak season demand recovery, tin prices may remain high and volatile. [14] - For nickel, high refined nickel inventory pressure drags down prices in the short term, but long - term global fiscal and monetary easing may support nickel prices. [16] - For lithium carbonate, the fundamental outlook is improving, but market sentiment is volatile, so cautious operation is recommended. [20] - For alumina, although there is over - capacity in the short term, the price is close to the cost line, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. [23] - For stainless steel, the market sentiment has improved after the production cut plan, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and it is advisable to wait and see. [25] - For cast aluminum alloy, strong cost support and supply tightness are likely to support prices. [28] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, copper prices declined. LME copper 3M contract fell 1.44% to $10930/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 87270 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons, and domestic inventories also changed. [2] - **Strategy**: The expected tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories are likely to support copper prices after a correction. The operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 86500 - 88200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10800 - 11050 dollars/ton. [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded. LME aluminum closed flat at $2870/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21265 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum inventories decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. [4] - **Strategy**: Supply disruptions overseas and low domestic inventories are likely to drive aluminum prices to fluctuate strongly. The operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21100 - 21400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2820 - 2900 dollars/ton. [5] Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell 0.07% to 17353 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell to $2022/ton. Domestic and LME lead inventories changed, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. [7] - **Strategy**: With de - stocking of lead ore visible inventories, improved demand, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term. [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.26% to 22382 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell to $3051/ton. Domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and the structural risk of LME zinc is high. [10] - **Strategy**: Zinc ore inventory accumulation, high structural risks in LME zinc, and a positive market atmosphere are likely to drive Shanghai zinc to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [11] Tin - **Market Information**: On October 30, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 283600 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. Supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is a concern, and demand in some sectors is weak. [13] - **Strategy**: Short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and with the peak season demand recovery, tin prices may remain high and volatile. It is advisable to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 270000 - 292000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is 35500 - 37000 dollars/ton. [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices declined. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120660 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. Nickel ore prices were stable to strong, and nickel - iron prices were stable. [15] - **Strategy**: High refined nickel inventory pressure drags down prices in the short term, but long - term global fiscal and monetary easing may support nickel prices. It is advisable to wait and see, and consider building long positions if the price drops sufficiently. The short - term operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 1.47%. Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased, and the LC2601 contract also rose. [19] - **Strategy**: Domestic production decreased, social inventories decreased rapidly, and market rumors boosted the market. The fundamental outlook is improving, but market sentiment is volatile. The operating range for the GFI lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 81600 - 85000 yuan/ton. [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 30, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.04% to 2831 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased, and inventories and prices in different regions changed. [22] - **Strategy**: Although there is over - capacity in the short term, the price is close to the cost line, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. The operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton. [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12725 yuan/ton, down 0.62%. Spot prices were stable, and inventories changed. [25] - **Strategy**: The market sentiment has improved after the production cut plan, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and it is advisable to wait and see. [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The AD2512 contract fell 0.34% to 20620 yuan/ton. Inventories decreased, and the trading volume increased. [27] - **Strategy**: Strong cost support and supply tightness are likely to support prices. [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Due to the "elimination" of US tariff threats against China, the equity market strengthened, and copper prices continued to rise. With expected progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a likely Fed rate cut, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 87,200 - 89,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,900 - 11,100 dollars/ton [2][3]. - The improvement in market risk appetite led to an increase in aluminum prices. After supply disruptions such as the shutdown of the Mozal aluminum plant and the reduction of the Grundartangi aluminum plant, aluminum prices are expected to further oscillate upward. The reference range for the main SHFE aluminum contract is 21,150 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [5][6]. - The lead market shows that the apparent inventory of lead ore is decreasing, and the smelting profit of recycled lead is improving. With the continuous reduction of lead ingot social and factory inventories, and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, it is expected that SHFE lead will operate strongly in the short term [8][9]. - In the zinc market, the apparent inventory of zinc ore is slightly increasing, and the TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is declining. The risk of a structural problem in LME zinc is high. With the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - For tin, the supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand from emerging fields provides support. With the improvement of the macro - environment, tin prices may oscillate higher in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 35,000 - 36,500 dollars/ton [13][14]. - Regarding nickel, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant in the short term, which drags down nickel prices. In the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider gradually establishing long positions if the price drops enough. The reference range for the short - term SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [15][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the weekend macro - positive factors and the improvement of the fundamentals may lead to the continuous reduction of social inventory until the end of the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure brought by industrial hedging and supply elasticity. The reference range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 79,400 - 83,200 yuan/ton [19][20]. - In the alumina market, although the ore price has short - term support, it may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, but considering the positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations and the expected Fed easing policy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22][23]. - For stainless steel, the planned production line maintenance of a steel mill in East China may relieve the inventory pressure. However, the demand support is insufficient, and the cost support has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [25][26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost side provides support, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space of the price [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The US tariff threat against China was "eliminated", the equity market strengthened, and copper prices continued to rise. The LME copper 3M contract rose 0.49% to 11,000 dollars/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 88,130 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons to 139,575 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly [2]. Strategy View - Sino - US economic and trade negotiations made progress, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates. With the tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventory, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 87,200 - 89,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,900 - 11,100 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - The improvement of market risk appetite led to an increase in aluminum prices. The LME aluminum closed up 0.77% to 2,878 dollars/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,255 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract position increased, and the domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [5]. Strategy View - After supply disruptions such as the shutdown of the Mozal aluminum plant and the reduction of the Grundartangi aluminum plant, and considering the low domestic inventory and the improvement of the global trade situation, aluminum prices are expected to further oscillate upward. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,150 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.40% to 17,521 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S was flat at 2,017.5 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,250 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 2.53 tons [8]. Strategy View - The apparent inventory of lead ore is decreasing, the smelting profit of recycled lead is improving, and the demand for lead - acid batteries is slightly warming. With the continuous reduction of lead ingot social and factory inventories and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE lead is expected to operate strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 0.04% to 22,369 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 11.5 dollars to 3,038.5 dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,210 yuan/ton, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly to 16.35 tons [11]. Strategy View - The apparent inventory of zinc ore is slightly increasing, and the TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is declining. The risk of a structural problem in LME zinc is high. With the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. Tin Market Information - On October 27, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand from emerging fields provides support. The national main tin ingot social inventory decreased by 182 tons to 7,743 tons [13]. Strategy View - With the improvement of the macro - environment and the tight balance of tin supply and demand, tin prices may oscillate higher in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 35,000 - 36,500 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated narrowly at a low level. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 122,400 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The cost of nickel ore was stable and slightly strong, the price of nickel iron was weak, and the MHP coefficient price was high [15]. Strategy View - The inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant in the short term, which drags down nickel prices. In the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider gradually establishing long positions if the price drops enough. The reference range for the short - term SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 2.16% to 80,569 yuan, the LC2601 contract closed at 81,900 yuan, up 2.99%, and the battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was at par [19]. Strategy View - The weekend macro - positive factors and the improvement of the fundamentals may lead to the continuous reduction of social inventory until the end of the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure brought by industrial hedging and supply elasticity. The reference range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 79,400 - 83,200 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina Market Information - On October 27, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.67% to 2,840 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price rose 5 yuan/ton to 2,795 yuan/ton, and the overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB rose 4 dollars/ton to 318 dollars/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.21 tons to 22.34 tons [22]. Strategy View - Although the ore price has short - term support, it may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, but considering the positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations and the expected Fed easing policy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,815 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable or slightly decreased. The raw material prices were stable, the futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly [25]. Strategy View - The planned production line maintenance of a steel mill in East China may relieve the inventory pressure. However, the demand support is insufficient, and the cost support has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated, the AD2512 contract rose 0.05% to 20,715 yuan/ton, the weighted contract position decreased, the trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price was stable, and the inventory decreased [28]. Strategy View - The cost side provides support, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space of the price [29].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Last night, Shanghai copper opened lower and oscillated, and continued its decline today, weakening again in the afternoon. With the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, leading to a general decline in domestic commodities. Technically, LME copper reached the upper limit of the previous oscillation range, increasing short - term long - closing willingness. Continuously monitor the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **沪铝**: Aluminum prices decreased significantly with reduced positions last night, stabilized in oscillation today, and the position volume continued to decline. Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, causing a general decline in domestic commodities. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faces pressure at the March high, with strong long - closing willingness. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel oscillated downward today, with a slight decline in position volume, causing the futures price to break below 121,000 at the end of the session. After the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, resulting in a general decline in domestic commodities. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of domestic nickel ore and the inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are rising, which is bearish for nickel prices. It is expected that the futures price will tend to oscillate [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In the North China electrolytic copper market, high copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream consumption. Although copper prices have declined, downstream enterprises are still hesitant to buy due to price concerns. As smelters are about to conduct centralized maintenance, their enthusiasm for selling is low. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, market trading is inactive [8]. - **Aluminum**: According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2025, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 8.82% and a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 141.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.40% [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 121,400 and 124,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was between 2,100 and 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was between - 100 and 300 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory, etc. [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [34][36][38]