1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Copper: The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper remain good, with supply - side capital expenditure constraints supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom. Short - term prices are likely to stay strong due to the structural imbalance of global inventories and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak at high prices. Focus on changes in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99000 - 100000 support level [1]. - Zinc: The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, but the import window for zinc ore is opening, limiting the downside space of TC. The supply pressure of refined zinc is relieved, and demand is suppressed. Overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and pressure from the expected supply of imported ore and weak demand feedback. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 23300 - 23400 support level [4]. - Nickel: The nickel market has seen significant price fluctuations. The unclear result of the 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market sentiment. High nickel prices have restricted downstream transactions, and the supply and demand situation is complex. Short - term prices are expected to adjust in a wide range, with the main contract running in the 132000 - 142000 range [6]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is mainly driven by nickel raw materials. The unclear nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market expectations. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand in the off - season is weak. The cost support from the ore end and nickel - iron is strengthened. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the 13400 - 14200 range [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market has seen a significant increase in the price center last week. The supply - side shock expectation is strengthened, and demand is expected to be optimistic. The inventory situation has changed, with upstream inventory increasing and downstream inventory decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, with a focus on the 150000 breakthrough and liquidity risks [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. Supply may decrease by 1 - 20,000 tons, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Exports may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton range [11]. - Polysilicon: In January, the polysilicon market is in a weak - demand situation, with high inventory and price pressure. There is a need for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. Pay attention to the impact of antitrust news, the possibility of production cuts, and the redistribution of industrial chain profits. The 50000 yuan/ton level may provide support, and trading is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Tin: The short - term price of tin is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. The supply side may be affected by the situation in Congo (Kinshasa), and demand shows regional differences. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and operations should be cautious [13]. - Alumina: The alumina market has been oscillating widely. The supply is rigid, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract in the 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton range. A rebound depends on capacity - control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price has risen strongly, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices, and inventory starting to accumulate. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at a high level, with the main contract in the 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton range [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum - alloy market has shown a strong trend, mainly driven by cost factors. However, the supply and demand are both weak, with supply affected by raw - material shortages and demand being suppressed by high prices. Inventory has been gradually decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract in the 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 100275 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.77%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased to 41.94 dollars/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24170 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.58%. The import profit and loss was - 1887 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased to 141900 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 4.80%. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 196 dollars/ton [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained at 13800 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 increased to - 85 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 140000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.08%. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 was - 580 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 9650 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased to 25 yuan/ton [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 was 55000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.90%. The main contract price dropped to 51300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased to 349750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.49%. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to 370 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 24030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.12%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum was 176.8 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 23700 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to - 105 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a 6.80% increase month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 27.11 million tons, a 3.90% decrease [1]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a 7.24% decrease month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 1.82 million tons, a 3.22% decrease [4]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month. The import volume in November increased by 30.08% [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, a 4.04% increase month - on - month. The demand decreased by 2.50% [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the expected production of industrial silicon may decrease to 38 - 39 million tons. The demand is expected to decline by about 1 million tons [11]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production was 11.55 million tons, a 0.79% increase month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 2041.76% [12]. - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81% month - on - month. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly [13]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a 1.08% increase month - on - month. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [15]. Inventory Data - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 14.61% week - on - week to 27.38 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 1.49% day - on - day to 13.90 million tons [1]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 11.69% week - on - week to 11.85 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.51% day - on - day to 10.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 2.43% week - on - week to 46650 tons. LME inventory increased by

| 库存与仓单 | | 镍 锡 | 254364 3160 | | -0. 16 0. 00 | 244506 2780 | | 3.87 12.03 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 500 | | | | | 库存指标 | | 期货库存 | 変化 (%) | | 仓車 | | 变化 (%) | | | | | | | 铜 | 97930 | | -11.46 | 31495 | | -10. 64 | | | | | | | 锌 | 95916 | | -4. 42 | 65778 | | -2. 72 | | | | | | SHFE (吨) | 铝 | 115277 | | -6. 82 | 66833 | | -0. 15 | -1000 | | | | | | 镍 | 40782 | | 2. 48 | 32722 | | -1.76 | | | | | | | 锡 | ୧356 | | 2. 09 | 6290 | | 0. 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices reached a record high this week and then declined. Although the long - term demand outlook for copper is optimistic due to factors such as tight copper concentrate supply and increasing demand from computing power construction, short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Copper operating in the range of 85,000 - 89,000. It is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. - Aluminum prices are in a high - level upward oscillation. However, as the rainy season in Guinea ends and alumina prices weaken, there is downward pressure on ore prices. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits at high levels for aluminum - related products [2]. - Zinc prices are in a relatively strong oscillation. Although the processing fees of zinc ore have decreased, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain at a high level. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will maintain an oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 23,000, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. - Lead prices are in a sideways oscillation. Supply is decreasing, but downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices. Considering the strong production and consumption demand and the temporary truce in the Sino - US trade war, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation. It is recommended to go long at low levels within the range of 17,100 - 17,800 [2]. - Nickel prices are in an intra - range oscillation and decline. The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market remains in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai Nickel operating in the range of 119,000 - 123,000; for stainless steel, it is also recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,400 - 12,900 [3]. - Tin prices are in a high - level oscillation and overall upward trend. Although tin ore supply is expected to improve, downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai Tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. - Industrial silicon prices are in an oscillatory adjustment. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products such as polysilicon and organic silicon have changed. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon storage platform and production reduction [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining certificates in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - From October 27th to November 2nd, important economic data were released. China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showed good growth. The Sino - US leaders held a meeting, and the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus on tariff and export control measures. China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the eurozone's GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. The US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, but it is expected to face difficulties in the House of Representatives [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. 3.2 Copper - Price trend: Reached a record high and then declined, expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply of copper concentrate is tight, but short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Investment advice: Exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price trend: High - level upward oscillation, with the oscillation range broken through [46]. - Fundamental factors: The rainy season in Guinea ends, alumina prices weaken, the operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the inventory increases. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases slightly, and downstream demand is affected by the transition from peak to off - peak season [2]. - Investment advice: Reduce positions and take profits at high levels [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price trend: Relatively strong oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc ore processing fees have decreased, smelter production enthusiasm is high, terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level [2]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price trend: Sideways oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is decreasing, downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices, but production and consumption demand are strong [2]. - Investment advice: Go long at low levels within the range [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price trend: Intra - range oscillation and decline [3]. - Fundamental factors: The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market is in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation [3]. - Investment advice: Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price trend: High - level oscillation and overall upward trend [3]. - Fundamental factors: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumption is weak [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Price trend: Oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Fundamental factors: The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products have changed, and the production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: Wide - range oscillation [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, downstream demand is strong, and there are uncertainties in mining certificates [3]. - Investment advice: Trade cautiously [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall sentiment remains positive despite a slight retreat in market bullishness after the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the Fed's expected rate cut. The probability of a further rate cut in December is low but not a major negative. [2][3] - For copper, with tight raw material supply and low inventories, copper prices are expected to be well - supported after a correction. [3] - For aluminum, supply disruptions and low domestic inventories are likely to drive aluminum prices to fluctuate strongly. [5] - For lead, due to de - stocking of visible lead ore inventories, improved demand, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term. [8] - For zinc, with zinc ore inventory accumulation, high structural risks in LME zinc, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [11] - For tin, short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and with the peak season demand recovery, tin prices may remain high and volatile. [14] - For nickel, high refined nickel inventory pressure drags down prices in the short term, but long - term global fiscal and monetary easing may support nickel prices. [16] - For lithium carbonate, the fundamental outlook is improving, but market sentiment is volatile, so cautious operation is recommended. [20] - For alumina, although there is over - capacity in the short term, the price is close to the cost line, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. [23] - For stainless steel, the market sentiment has improved after the production cut plan, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and it is advisable to wait and see. [25] - For cast aluminum alloy, strong cost support and supply tightness are likely to support prices. [28] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, copper prices declined. LME copper 3M contract fell 1.44% to $10930/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 87270 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons, and domestic inventories also changed. [2] - **Strategy**: The expected tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories are likely to support copper prices after a correction. The operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 86500 - 88200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10800 - 11050 dollars/ton. [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded. LME aluminum closed flat at $2870/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21265 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum inventories decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. [4] - **Strategy**: Supply disruptions overseas and low domestic inventories are likely to drive aluminum prices to fluctuate strongly. The operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21100 - 21400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2820 - 2900 dollars/ton. [5] Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell 0.07% to 17353 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell to $2022/ton. Domestic and LME lead inventories changed, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. [7] - **Strategy**: With de - stocking of lead ore visible inventories, improved demand, and a positive market atmosphere, Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term. [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.26% to 22382 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell to $3051/ton. Domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and the structural risk of LME zinc is high. [10] - **Strategy**: Zinc ore inventory accumulation, high structural risks in LME zinc, and a positive market atmosphere are likely to drive Shanghai zinc to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [11] Tin - **Market Information**: On October 30, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 283600 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. Supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is a concern, and demand in some sectors is weak. [13] - **Strategy**: Short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and with the peak season demand recovery, tin prices may remain high and volatile. It is advisable to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 270000 - 292000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is 35500 - 37000 dollars/ton. [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices declined. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120660 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. Nickel ore prices were stable to strong, and nickel - iron prices were stable. [15] - **Strategy**: High refined nickel inventory pressure drags down prices in the short term, but long - term global fiscal and monetary easing may support nickel prices. It is advisable to wait and see, and consider building long positions if the price drops sufficiently. The short - term operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 1.47%. Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased, and the LC2601 contract also rose. [19] - **Strategy**: Domestic production decreased, social inventories decreased rapidly, and market rumors boosted the market. The fundamental outlook is improving, but market sentiment is volatile. The operating range for the GFI lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 81600 - 85000 yuan/ton. [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 30, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.04% to 2831 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased, and inventories and prices in different regions changed. [22] - **Strategy**: Although there is over - capacity in the short term, the price is close to the cost line, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. The operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton. [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12725 yuan/ton, down 0.62%. Spot prices were stable, and inventories changed. [25] - **Strategy**: The market sentiment has improved after the production cut plan, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and it is advisable to wait and see. [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The AD2512 contract fell 0.34% to 20620 yuan/ton. Inventories decreased, and the trading volume increased. [27] - **Strategy**: Strong cost support and supply tightness are likely to support prices. [28]

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 有色金属日报 2025-10-28 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国对中国关税威胁"消除"，权益市场走强，铜价延续涨势，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 0.49%至 11000 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 88130 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 375 至 139575 吨，注销仓单比例下滑， Cash/3M 维持贴水 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Last night, Shanghai copper opened lower and oscillated, and continued its decline today, weakening again in the afternoon. With the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, leading to a general decline in domestic commodities. Technically, LME copper reached the upper limit of the previous oscillation range, increasing short - term long - closing willingness. Continuously monitor the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **沪铝**: Aluminum prices decreased significantly with reduced positions last night, stabilized in oscillation today, and the position volume continued to decline. Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, causing a general decline in domestic commodities. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faces pressure at the March high, with strong long - closing willingness. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel oscillated downward today, with a slight decline in position volume, causing the futures price to break below 121,000 at the end of the session. After the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, resulting in a general decline in domestic commodities. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of domestic nickel ore and the inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are rising, which is bearish for nickel prices. It is expected that the futures price will tend to oscillate [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In the North China electrolytic copper market, high copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream consumption. Although copper prices have declined, downstream enterprises are still hesitant to buy due to price concerns. As smelters are about to conduct centralized maintenance, their enthusiasm for selling is low. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, market trading is inactive [8]. - **Aluminum**: According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2025, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 8.82% and a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 141.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.40% [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 121,400 and 124,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was between 2,100 and 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was between - 100 and 300 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory, etc. [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [34][36][38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract falling by 1.46% to 269,100 yuan/ton, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and limited improvement in domestic downstream consumption [1] - Domestic smelting plants are facing reduced operating rates, with a reported operating rate of 28.48% for refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi, marking a year-to-date low [1] - The recovery of tin mines in Myanmar is slower than expected, with significant production unlikely before November, while tin mine inventories in Yunnan are below the 30-day safety line, leading to increased processing costs and some companies experiencing production losses [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the tin market suggests that the combination of the Federal Reserve's dovish statements and hawkish comments will lead to a weak and volatile price trend, with a focus on lower integer support levels [2] - The LME inventory is stabilizing and domestic consumption is not improving, which is dragging down tin prices, while the supply of refined tin remains constrained due to regular maintenance at large smelting plants [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates remains high, and the risk appetite in the Chinese market has weakened. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the approaching peak season provides strong price support, but the marginal cooling of sentiment may increase the upward resistance of copper prices [1]. - The Fed Chair signaled dovishness, increasing market expectations of a September interest - rate cut. The relatively low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the marginal improvement in demand provide price support, but the aluminum price may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - The Fed's high probability of interest - rate cuts and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector, along with the marginal narrowing of lead ingot supply, are expected to drive lead prices to run strongly [4]. - There is a divergence between the macro background and the industrial situation of zinc. Although the short - term decline space is limited, it is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern [6]. - The supply of tin is expected to decrease significantly in the short term, while the demand is in the off - season. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive the non - ferrous metals including nickel to strengthen. The nickel price has limited downward space and is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - The lithium carbonate market lacks positive drivers and continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas supply and industrial news [10]. - After the sharp decline of alumina futures prices, the downward space is limited, but the oversupply pattern makes it difficult to support a continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - With the approaching of the traditional consumption peak season, the stainless - steel consumption is expected to increase [14]. - The casting aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. With strong cost support and increasing market activity, the price may run at a high level in the short term [16]. Summary by Metal Types Copper - LME copper closed at $9974/ton, down 0.39%, and SHFE copper closed at 80260 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 158575 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 8.5%. In China, SHFE copper warrants slightly decreased to 19,000 tons. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2614/ton, down 0.29%, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20725 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions slightly increased to 557,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 60,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the aluminum price may fluctuate [3]. Lead - SHFE lead index closed up 0.09% at 16866 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1993/ton. The supply of lead concentrates is tight, and the smelting start - up rate is high. The lead price is expected to be strong [4]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index closed down 0.16% at 22284 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2864/ton. The supply of zinc concentrates is increasing, the smelting volume is expanding, and the demand has not improved significantly. The zinc price is expected to oscillate at a low level [6]. Tin - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the supply of tin in Yunnan is short. The output of refined tin in September is expected to decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand is in the off - season, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate [7]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved, and the demand for stainless - steel production is expected to increase. The short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the nickel price is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 1.91%. The market lacks positive drivers and continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas supply [10]. Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.99% to 2990 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are in an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The traditional consumption peak season is approaching, and the demand is expected to increase [14]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract fell slightly to 20285 yuan/ton. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price may run at a high level [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a daily overview of the non - ferrous metals market, including price movements, inventory changes, and supply - demand analysis for various metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy. It also offers short - term price forecast ranges for each metal [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price**: Last week, LME copper rose 2.26% to $9,879/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,920 yuan/ton. This week, SHFE copper is expected to trade between 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M between $9,600 - 10,000/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: Three major exchanges' inventory decreased by 20,000 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 19,000 to 82,000 tons, LME decreased by 8,000 to 91,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 7,000 to 190,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 3,000 tons [2]. - **Supply - demand**: Copper raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is structurally low. However, the consumption toughness of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and Chinese exports are increasing, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices [2]. Aluminum - **Price**: On Friday, LME aluminum rose 0.39% to $2,595/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton. The expected trading range for SHFE aluminum is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,550 - 2,620/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures warehouse receipts decreased by 8,000 to 34,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 4,000 to 314,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 8,000 to 345,000 tons [4]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, providing strong support for prices. But as prices rise, the negative feedback from the consumption side increases, restricting upward movement [4]. Lead - **Price**: On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.55% to 17,126 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2,031.5/ton. The overall lead price is expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of SHFE lead may be limited [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory is 45,900 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 50,300 tons. LME lead inventory is 273,300 tons [5]. - **Supply - demand**: Primary supply remains high, while secondary supply is tight. Lead - acid battery prices stop falling and rise, and downstream procurement improves [5]. Zinc - **Price**: On Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.79% to 22,377 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,770/ton. The strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter may cause market sentiment disturbances, and the LME Cash - 3S structure boosts zinc prices [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory is 6,400 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,500 tons. LME zinc inventory is 119,900 tons [6]. - **Supply - demand**: Zinc ore supply remains high, and TC continues to rise. There is a high expectation of zinc ingot production increase, but some smelters' production changes affect inventory accumulation [6]. Tin - **Price**: Last week, tin prices fluctuated upward. Domestic tin prices are expected to trade between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin between $31,000 - 34,000/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the national major market tin ingot social inventory is 9,266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from last Friday [7]. - **Supply - demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, and upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell. However, terminal demand is weak, and the industry chain is in a stalemate [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. The recommended operation is to short at high prices. SHFE nickel is expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M between $14,500 - 16,500/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: The combined domestic and LME visible inventory is 240,000 tons, a decrease of 726 tons from last week [8]. - **Supply - demand**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens, which may lead to a downward trend [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: On Friday, the MMLC late - session price was 61,177 yuan, up 1.16% from the previous working day. The expected trading range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 62,600 - 64,000 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level, and the trend may continue until the beginning of the peak season in August [10]. - **Supply - demand**: The fundamentals have not changed substantially. Although prices have rebounded, the supply - clearing process slows down, and the upward space is limited [10]. Alumina - **Price**: On June 27, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.29% to 2,990 yuan/ton. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - **Inventory**: On Friday, the futures warehouse receipts were 30,300 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous trading day [12]. - **Supply - demand**: The alumina production capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change, and prices are expected to be anchored by costs [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory is 112,327 tons, a decrease of 119 tons from the previous day. The social inventory decreased to 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 0.25% [15]. - **Supply - demand**: The market supply exceeds demand, and demand is weak. Although there are production - cut news, the pattern has not changed [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: Last week, the AD2511 contract rose 0.76% to 19,790 yuan/ton. It is expected to trade in a short - term volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the change of the premium over the spot [17]. - **Inventory**: The domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot social inventory continued to increase, and the total of social and factory inventory increased [17]. - **Supply - demand**: In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and prices mainly follow the cost - side (mainly affected by aluminum prices) [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. Core Views Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation. Although the ore end provides some price support, the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable, production remains high, and demand improvement is slow. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating. The fundamental pressure remains, but the tight near - month warehouse receipts provide support. In the short term, the market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand expectations. It is advisable to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore end. The demand side is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the long - term, it is advisable to short - sell on rallies, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term downward adjustment space of the futures price is limited, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the short - term price may reach around 20,500 yuan/ton, and in the third quarter, there is downward pressure, with the lowest support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate in the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. 1 imported nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The LME 0 - 3 spread remained unchanged, and the futures import profit and loss improved by 5.75% [1]. Electrowinning Cost - The cost of integrated MHP and external - procurement methods for producing electrowinning nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. New Energy Material Prices - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.36%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and imports increased by 8.18%. SHFE, social, and LME inventories all decreased [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 11.54% [4]. Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%. The price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month. Imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85%. Social inventories increased by 2.04% [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.42 - 0.47% [6]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. Total inventory increased by 1.49%, downstream inventory decreased by 6.47%, and smelter inventory increased by 8.54% [6]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 0.11%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 20.74% [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, refined tin production decreased by 2.37%. SHEF and LME inventories changed [8]. Zinc Price and Basis - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%. The import profit and loss improved by 1.10% [10]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%. Galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide开工率 changed. Social and LME inventories decreased [10]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%. The average price of alumina decreased slightly [13]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41%. Aluminum product开工率 decreased, and social and LME inventories decreased [13]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%. The import profit and loss decreased [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%. Import copper concentrate index decreased, and domestic port copper concentrate inventory increased. Electrolytic copper and recycled copper制杆开工率 changed, and inventories in different locations changed [14].