Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall non - ferrous sector continued its weak and volatile trend due to the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the cooling domestic market sentiment [4][5][6]. - For Shanghai copper, the main contract price fluctuated weakly below 79,000 yuan. After the end of long - term order delivery near the end of the month, the market's sales sentiment weakened, and the spot premium increased. Technically, the price broke below 79,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the main contract price dropped slightly in the morning and then oscillated narrowly around 20,600 yuan. The position decreased continuously, and the 8 - 9 month spread rebounded. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [5]. - For Shanghai nickel, the main contract price oscillated downward, breaking below 122,000 yuan, and the position decreased continuously. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 - yuan level [6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - For copper, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region had little impact on the main distribution areas of refined copper rod factories. Currently, factories in North China are operating stably, and logistics and transportation are not affected [8]. - For aluminum, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region damaged some roads and hindered traffic. However, the areas where aluminum profile manufacturers are located received less rainfall, and overall production remained stable. Only a few enterprises reported that raw material transportation was affected [9]. - For nickel, on July 29, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 - 123,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel were in the range of - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper month spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][19]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel month spread, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][40].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, the copper price opened low and moved lower, with the main contract of Shanghai copper breaking below the 79,000 yuan mark. The market sentiment turned cold rapidly, and most previously rising commodities saw a downward trend with reduced positions. The social inventory of electrolytic copper on Monday was 125,000 tons, up 3,200 tons from last Thursday. Although the short - term commodity market is weak, Shanghai copper is relatively resistant to decline. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 yuan mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined on Friday night and fluctuated on Monday, with the position volume continuously decreasing. Affected by the weak market, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum on Monday was 514,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from last Thursday. With the short - term market weakening and inventory accumulation in the aluminum industry, the aluminum price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price soared and then dived on Friday night, remaining weak on Monday with a continuous decline in position volume. Affected by the market, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 yuan level [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: First Quantum's copper production in Q2 2025 was 91,000 tons, a quarterly decline of 8.7% and a year - on - year decline of 11.3%, mainly due to the production decline at Kansanshi. The company's 2025 copper production guidance is 380,000 - 440,000 tons. On July 28, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 125,000 tons, up 3,200 tons from July 24 and down 500 tons from July 21 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 28, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 514,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from July 24 and up 34,000 tons from July 21 [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 28, Mysteel reported that for the Shanghai nickel market, the mainstream reference contract was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,100 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,210 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,660 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,710 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,210 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The charts involve aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts include nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market continues to oscillate overall under the influence of complex macro factors. Each metal has its own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, production capacity changes, and inventory levels [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Market Analysis Copper - **Trend Status**: High - level oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Tariffs increase the impact on copper prices, and Sino - US presidential calls bring positive expectations. Although supply disturbances and low TC support copper prices, downstream consumption is weakening, and the upside and downside of copper prices are both limited [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading within 77500 - 79500 [3]. Aluminum - **Trend Status**: Continued weak oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Mining disturbances in Guinea have not directly affected the current abundant supply of bauxite, but the impact will be reflected in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, while downstream demand is weakening, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [3]. Zinc - **Trend Status**: Range oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Macro factors are negative, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to remain abundant. Traditional peak consumption seasons have passed, and downstream demand is weakening. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 22000 - 23000 [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading [3]. Lead - **Trend Status**: Weak oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the overall market consumption is poor. The market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading within 16200 - 17000 [3]. Nickel - **Trend Status**: Stabilized and rebounded [3]. - **Market View**: Macro factors are negative, but the cost of nickel is firm, and the downside is limited. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading. The reference range for the main contract is 118000 - 125000 yuan/ton [3]. Stainless Steel - **Trend Status**: Oscillated weakly [3]. - **Market View**: Entering the traditional off - season, downstream demand is only for rigid needs. The cost of stainless - steel enterprises is inverted, and social inventory is high. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading. The reference range for the main contract is 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [3]. Tin - **Trend Status**: Bottomed out and rebounded [4]. - **Market View**: Raw material supply is tight, and the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. Although the supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, the impact of US tariff policies on downstream consumption needs attention. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading. The reference range for the SHFE tin 07 contract is 255000 - 275000 yuan/ton [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Trend Status**: Stabilized at a low level, with a downward trend unchanged [4]. - **Market View**: Production has increased, and inventory is high. Although the price has rebounded due to rising coal prices, it is expected to be weak under the pressure of production resumption in the southwest region [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [4]. Polysilicon - **Trend Status**: Weak oscillation at a low level [4]. - **Market View**: The polysilicon market has high risks [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Trend Status**: Stabilized at a low level, with a downward trend unchanged [4]. - **Market View**: Supply has recovered, but downstream battery inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation is not improving. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short when the price rebounds to a high level [4]. 2. Macro - economic Data - **China**: In May, the official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5, and the non - manufacturing industry continued to expand; the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, and the service industry and comprehensive PMI showed slight changes [15][17]. - **US**: On June 4, the steel and aluminum tariffs were raised to 50%; the May ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for three consecutive months; the May non - farm payrolls increased by 139000, the lowest since February [19][20][22]. - **Eurozone**: The May manufacturing PMI's contraction slowed down, and output increased for the third consecutive month [21]. 3. Market Data Tracking - **Copper**: Various inventory data, such as COMEX, LME, and Chinese bonded - area inventories, showed different trends in week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year comparisons [9]. - **Aluminum**: Data on 6063 aluminum rod inventory, port alumina and bauxite inventory, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory were tracked [55]. - **Zinc**: Data on global visible inventory, SHFE inventory, and zinc downstream product prices were tracked [70][73]. - **Lead**: Data on SHFE and LME lead inventory, and lead production and price data were tracked [84][91]. - **Nickel**: Data on LME and SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel - related product prices were tracked [100][112]. - **Tin**: Data on LME tin inventory, tin - related product prices, and smelting profit were tracked [129][131][125]. - **Industrial Silicon and Stainless Steel**: Their respective price trends and inventory data were tracked [136][137]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated narrowly, rising slightly by 0.01% to $9,567 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell by 0.18% to 77,850 yuan per ton. The US macro situation is mixed, with the April existing - home sales index falling year - on - year. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. High copper prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. With a relatively stable macro situation and fundamental support, it's difficult for copper prices to drop significantly. The current weak market is due to the domestic off - season, and the de - stocking trend and high BACK structure are not suitable for unilateral short - selling. Copper may maintain the current oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum both fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost center of aluminum has declined, and alumina enterprises are showing signs of resuming production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated slightly before the holiday, and the downstream rigid demand for stocking was limited. Aluminum prices continued to adjust narrowly above 20,000 yuan and were not significantly affected by alumina [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel rose by 1.99%, and SHFE nickel rose by 1.25%. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The cost support of the stainless - steel industry chain is strong, but market transactions are weak, and inventory digestion is mainly for 200 - series and 300 - series. In the new energy sector, raw material supply has increased, but the demand for nickel sulfate is hard to increase. After a rapid decline, nickel prices may recover, but in the short term, they will still oscillate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose slightly, SHFE copper fell. The US April existing - home sales index was far lower than expected. LME inventory decreased, Comex increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. High prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. The macro situation is improving, and the fundamentals support copper prices. It's difficult for prices to drop significantly, and the current weak market is due to the off - season. Copper may oscillate, and attention should be paid to capital games [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost of aluminum decreased, and alumina enterprises may resume production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated before the holiday, and downstream stocking was limited. Aluminum prices adjusted narrowly above 20,000 yuan [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and SHFE nickel rose. LME and domestic SHFE inventories decreased. The stainless - steel industry chain has strong cost support but weak transactions. In the new energy sector, supply increased while demand was weak. After a decline, nickel prices may recover but will oscillate in the short term [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The price of scrap copper remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and the import loss increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the premium decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium expanded. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of alumina decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of nickel decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price remained unchanged, and the near - far month spread increased. The spot price remained unchanged, and the domestic and imported spot premiums decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased. The social inventory decreased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased, and the LME price decreased. The near - far month spread increased, and the spot price decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Non - Research Content - The report introduces the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [50][51][52].