制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或再次分发给任何其他人，或以任何侵犯本公司版权的其他方式使用。 | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点（最新逻辑变化） | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 现货分歧大。1）行情：LME市场圣诞缺席，国内沪铜增仓到纪录水平，价格最高10.2万，伦铜开市跳涨到最高1.29万。消费淡季叠加高铜价， | | | | 跨年时段单边交易以加速度兑现2026年尤其一季度铜精矿供应紧俏等利多因素，直接达到多数投行预计的年度高位区。2）国内供需：基本面背 | | | | 离信号明显。SMM月底沪粤现货贴水幅度扩至330、235元/吨，SMM社库增至21.48万吨。高铜价正在影响春节前涉铜中间铜材类产品开工，。这 | | 1 | 铜 | 可能对纪录涨势的铜价形成高位调整压力。但价格仍可能受益于原再生料的紧张、国内精炼铜产量供应同时转淡以及炼厂出口动作。海外价 差，美铜>伦铜>沪铜的跨市结构，持续减缓国内铜消费淡季的影响。3）海外：刚果（金）暂停手工铜和钴矿加工。等待海外投行更新2026年铜 | | | | 目标位预期。4）走势：以美盘铜6美元/磅上调铜市目标位，伦铜约1.31万美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Last night, the macro - atmosphere weakened, and the copper price dropped below the 86,000 yuan mark. Today, the decline slowed, with the open interest of Shanghai copper continuing to decline, and the main futures price stabilizing around 85,600 yuan. After the US non - farm payrolls data was released last night, the US stocks opened high and closed low with a significant decline, and the Asian market continued the downward trend today. In the industry, as the copper price fell, spot transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 85,500 yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum significantly decreased with a reduction in positions, and the main futures price fell below the 21,500 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the downturn. In the industry, as the aluminum price weakened, downstream transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated downward, with little change in open interest, and the main futures price fell below the 115,000 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the decline. As the nickel price dropped, the spot premium gradually strengthened, indicating stronger support in the spot market. Technically, the main futures price breaking below the 115,000 yuan mark has strong downward momentum [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 21st, the weekly SMM copper cable operating rate increased by 1.32 percentage points. As the copper price fell below 86,000 yuan/ton, orders rebounded, but some enterprises were still observing. The demand for automotive wiring harnesses was good. SMM expected a slight increase in the operating rate next week as enterprises would increase production for the end - of - November rush [9]. - **Aluminum**: On November 20th, the Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [10]. - **Nickel**: On November 21st, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 114,400 - 119,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 116,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium and discount quotation range was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Relevant charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Related charts are aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Relevant charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining at a loss. The market has reduced its bets on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Fundamentally, downstream acceptance of high copper prices has increased, and demand is slowly recovering. However, the instability of domestic and international stock markets has dampened confidence in a significant rise in copper prices. The overall global visible inventory is still in a state of accumulation, approaching recent high levels, and the high copper prices have shown a suppressive effect on terminal copper use. Without unexpected events, copper prices are expected to show a high - level oscillating trend, with volatility likely to remain at a low level [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The alumina futures market has shown a narrow - range correction. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the market has been driven by long - position funds. However, due to fundamental support and environmental protection restrictions in the north, high prices have a significant suppressive effect on demand. Aluminum ingot destocking has been continuously hindered, and the proportion of molten aluminum has continued to decline. Aluminum prices continue to be strong but face resistance when rising. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is expected to narrow [2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell slightly, while Shanghai nickel rose. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE inventories decreased. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is showing a weakening trend, with the stainless - steel market being sluggish. In the new energy industrial chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming apparent, and nickel prices are still running weakly, but attention should be paid to macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US Department of Labor will not release the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report will be postponed. The Fed is divided on a December interest rate cut but almost unanimously agrees to end balance - sheet reduction. Copper demand is slowly recovering, but inventory accumulation and high prices may restrict future price increases. Without unexpected events, copper prices will oscillate at a high level with low volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy have different trends. The alumina futures market has a narrow - range correction. The macro - sentiment is warming, but high prices suppress demand. Aluminum ingot destocking is difficult, and the proportion of molten aluminum is decreasing. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum [2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell slightly, and Shanghai nickel rose. Inventory decreased, the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is weak, and the new energy industrial chain has raw material supply tightness. Primary nickel inventory pressure is high, and nickel prices are weak [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 19, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 115 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2522 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 19, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased. SHFE total inventory increased by 1564 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 19, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 750 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 793 tons, and social nickel inventory increased by 3981 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.3%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.8%. SHFE inventory increased by 266 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: There are charts showing the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - and Far - Month Spread**: There are charts showing the near - and far - month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: There are charts showing the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: There are charts showing the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 4. Introduction of the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a junior investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: Not explicitly stated, but implied positive trend [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not explicitly rated [1] - Zinc: Not explicitly stated, but implied bearish trend [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: Not explicitly rated, but implied bearish trend [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: Not explicitly rated, expected to fluctuate [1][9] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated, recommended to be cautious [1][10] Core Views - The prices of different non - ferrous metals show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - economic situation, and policy expectations [2][3][6] - Some metals like aluminum and copper have specific trading strategies based on their market performance and fundamental factors [2][7] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper prices rose during the day, with the spot price at 85,235 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium was 90 yuan, and the Guangdong premium was 40 yuan on the last trading day. The option portfolio strategy is continued [2] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded slightly, with the East China spot premium at 30 yuan. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically flat year - on - year. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and rods increased moderately during the National Day, and the inventory decreased in the past two days. The spot premium and discount improved. The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will test the previous high resistance [2] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continues to fall by about 10 yuan. The current index price is approaching the cash - loss production cut level in Shanxi and Henan [2] Zinc - On Wednesday, the LME zinc spot delivery day, the 0 - 3 month premium declined from a high level, the zinc spot export window opened, and the LME zinc inventory stopped falling and rebounded. The extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets converged. The fourth - quarter Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the domestic consumption peak season is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is weakly operating, and the market trading is light. After the interest - rate cut, the long - position cashing - out tendency is prominent, and the Sino - US friction increases uncertainty. The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with limited downstream demand recovery in the traditional peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up at 281,000 yuan, and the spot tin was reported at 281,700 yuan, basically at par on the last trading day. There is no new news about the resumption of Burmese ore supply, and the domestic leading production capacity that was under maintenance is gradually resuming production this month [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The Sino - US friction affects market risk preference in the short term. The overall inventory level is still high, and there may be a short - term correction risk. Technically, it is weakly operating [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fell slightly. In October, the production capacity in the Xinjiang production area continued to be released, and the production rate in the southern production area remained stable. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest production area from late October to early November. The cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price significantly rebounded, driven by policy - related news. However, the fundamentals lack positive factors, with the spot price narrowly fluctuating, high - price resistance in the market, and expected production increase in October. The risk of inventory accumulation is rising, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability in the market) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not specified [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The copper market lacks a clear guiding thread, with some underground copper mines in Chile resuming operations and waiting for the impact of tariffs. Hold short positions in the 2508 contract [2]. - The aluminum market shows narrow fluctuations, with the social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increasing. The market is in a short - term shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the aluminum oxide market is in a state of surplus [3]. - The zinc market is pulled up by the external market due to continuous inventory reduction in LME zinc and increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The zinc price is expected to face resistance during the rebound [4]. - The lead market has insufficient fundamental contradictions. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is recommended to enter short positions [7]. - The tin market is in a volatile state, and it is advisable to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a daily limit on Monday. The shutdown of a mining area in Jiangxi Yichun by CATL has affected the market, and the downstream is actively restocking [9]. - The industrial silicon market has significant supply pressure, and it is expected to show short - term shocks [10]. - The polysilicon market has a limited upward push in spot prices, and the trend may maintain a range - bound shock [11]. Summary by Metal Copper - Monday, Shanghai copper continued its upward trend in the session, with spot copper at 79,150 yuan and flat - water copper at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. Some underground copper mines in Chile resumed operations, and the market is waiting for the impact of tariffs. Hold short positions in the 2508 contract [2]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the East China spot at a discount of 50 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 23,000 tons and aluminum bars by 4,000 tons. The market is in a short - term shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with a stable spot price of 19,800 yuan. Alumina is in a state of surplus, with limited downward space [3]. Zinc - LME zinc continued to reduce inventory, and the external market pulled up the domestic market. The term structure of zinc has flattened, and the inventory has increased. The zinc price is expected to face resistance during the rebound, and it is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Lead - The lead market has insufficient fundamental contradictions, with funds mainly reducing positions. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the social inventory continues to decline. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the maintenance rhythm of primary lead smelters in late August [6]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The upstream price support has weakened significantly. The inventory situation is complex, and it is recommended to enter short positions as the market is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound [7]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up, with spot tin at 268,000 yuan and a premium of 600 yuan to the delivery month. The social inventory decreased slightly last week. It is advisable to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price had a daily limit on Monday. A mining area in Jiangxi Yichun by CATL shut down, and the downstream actively restocked. The total market inventory decreased slightly, and the price structure shows a weak near - month trend [9]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon rose slightly, with stable spot prices. The market has significant supply pressure, and it is expected to show short - term shocks as the expected increase in downstream demand is less than that of industrial silicon [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded after reaching above 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price increase was limited. The downstream component price decreased, and the trend may maintain a range - bound shock [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper maintained a volatile trend with a slight decline in open interest. The continuous decline of the US dollar index and a positive domestic atmosphere are favorable for copper prices. On the industrial side, on August 7th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week. With the domestic market warming up again, copper prices may continue to rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, aluminum prices opened higher and maintained a strong and volatile consolidation during the day, with open interest continuously increasing. The domestic atmosphere has warmed up, and since aluminum has a strong domestic pricing power, its price has risen significantly. However, it is the off - season for downstream demand, aluminum rods are in a state of inventory accumulation, and electrolytic aluminum has also seen inventory build - up. Despite the bearish industrial situation, the positive macro environment is expected to drive the futures price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the July high [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices rose with a reduction in positions, and the main contract price of Shanghai nickel approached the 122,000 yuan mark. The positive domestic atmosphere recently has led to a strengthening of nickel prices, and there is a strong willingness among previous short - sellers to close their positions. The downstream stainless - steel industry is operating strongly. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 122,000 yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 7th, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the 31st and a decrease of 1,000 tons from the 4th [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 7th, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic market was 549,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the 31st and an increase of 2,000 tons from the 4th [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 7th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,250 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,170 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,420 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,220 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,470 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts 3.2.1 Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][31][27]. 3.2.3 Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][41][42].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall non - ferrous sector continued its weak and volatile trend due to the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the cooling domestic market sentiment [4][5][6]. - For Shanghai copper, the main contract price fluctuated weakly below 79,000 yuan. After the end of long - term order delivery near the end of the month, the market's sales sentiment weakened, and the spot premium increased. Technically, the price broke below 79,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the main contract price dropped slightly in the morning and then oscillated narrowly around 20,600 yuan. The position decreased continuously, and the 8 - 9 month spread rebounded. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [5]. - For Shanghai nickel, the main contract price oscillated downward, breaking below 122,000 yuan, and the position decreased continuously. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 - yuan level [6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - For copper, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region had little impact on the main distribution areas of refined copper rod factories. Currently, factories in North China are operating stably, and logistics and transportation are not affected [8]. - For aluminum, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region damaged some roads and hindered traffic. However, the areas where aluminum profile manufacturers are located received less rainfall, and overall production remained stable. Only a few enterprises reported that raw material transportation was affected [9]. - For nickel, on July 29, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 - 123,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel were in the range of - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper month spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][19]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel month spread, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][40].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, the copper price opened low and moved lower, with the main contract of Shanghai copper breaking below the 79,000 yuan mark. The market sentiment turned cold rapidly, and most previously rising commodities saw a downward trend with reduced positions. The social inventory of electrolytic copper on Monday was 125,000 tons, up 3,200 tons from last Thursday. Although the short - term commodity market is weak, Shanghai copper is relatively resistant to decline. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 yuan mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined on Friday night and fluctuated on Monday, with the position volume continuously decreasing. Affected by the weak market, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum on Monday was 514,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from last Thursday. With the short - term market weakening and inventory accumulation in the aluminum industry, the aluminum price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price soared and then dived on Friday night, remaining weak on Monday with a continuous decline in position volume. Affected by the market, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 yuan level [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: First Quantum's copper production in Q2 2025 was 91,000 tons, a quarterly decline of 8.7% and a year - on - year decline of 11.3%, mainly due to the production decline at Kansanshi. The company's 2025 copper production guidance is 380,000 - 440,000 tons. On July 28, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 125,000 tons, up 3,200 tons from July 24 and down 500 tons from July 21 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 28, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 514,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from July 24 and up 34,000 tons from July 21 [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 28, Mysteel reported that for the Shanghai nickel market, the mainstream reference contract was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,100 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,210 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,660 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,710 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,210 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The charts involve aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts include nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market continues to oscillate overall under the influence of complex macro factors. Each metal has its own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, production capacity changes, and inventory levels [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Market Analysis Copper - **Trend Status**: High - level oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Tariffs increase the impact on copper prices, and Sino - US presidential calls bring positive expectations. Although supply disturbances and low TC support copper prices, downstream consumption is weakening, and the upside and downside of copper prices are both limited [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading within 77500 - 79500 [3]. Aluminum - **Trend Status**: Continued weak oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Mining disturbances in Guinea have not directly affected the current abundant supply of bauxite, but the impact will be reflected in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, while downstream demand is weakening, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [3]. Zinc - **Trend Status**: Range oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Macro factors are negative, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to remain abundant. Traditional peak consumption seasons have passed, and downstream demand is weakening. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 22000 - 23000 [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading [3]. Lead - **Trend Status**: Weak oscillation [3]. - **Market View**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the overall market consumption is poor. The market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading within 16200 - 17000 [3]. Nickel - **Trend Status**: Stabilized and rebounded [3]. - **Market View**: Macro factors are negative, but the cost of nickel is firm, and the downside is limited. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading. The reference range for the main contract is 118000 - 125000 yuan/ton [3]. Stainless Steel - **Trend Status**: Oscillated weakly [3]. - **Market View**: Entering the traditional off - season, downstream demand is only for rigid needs. The cost of stainless - steel enterprises is inverted, and social inventory is high. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading. The reference range for the main contract is 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [3]. Tin - **Trend Status**: Bottomed out and rebounded [4]. - **Market View**: Raw material supply is tight, and the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. Although the supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, the impact of US tariff policies on downstream consumption needs attention. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Range trading. The reference range for the SHFE tin 07 contract is 255000 - 275000 yuan/ton [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Trend Status**: Stabilized at a low level, with a downward trend unchanged [4]. - **Market View**: Production has increased, and inventory is high. Although the price has rebounded due to rising coal prices, it is expected to be weak under the pressure of production resumption in the southwest region [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [4]. Polysilicon - **Trend Status**: Weak oscillation at a low level [4]. - **Market View**: The polysilicon market has high risks [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Trend Status**: Stabilized at a low level, with a downward trend unchanged [4]. - **Market View**: Supply has recovered, but downstream battery inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation is not improving. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short when the price rebounds to a high level [4]. 2. Macro - economic Data - **China**: In May, the official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5, and the non - manufacturing industry continued to expand; the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, and the service industry and comprehensive PMI showed slight changes [15][17]. - **US**: On June 4, the steel and aluminum tariffs were raised to 50%; the May ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for three consecutive months; the May non - farm payrolls increased by 139000, the lowest since February [19][20][22]. - **Eurozone**: The May manufacturing PMI's contraction slowed down, and output increased for the third consecutive month [21]. 3. Market Data Tracking - **Copper**: Various inventory data, such as COMEX, LME, and Chinese bonded - area inventories, showed different trends in week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year comparisons [9]. - **Aluminum**: Data on 6063 aluminum rod inventory, port alumina and bauxite inventory, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory were tracked [55]. - **Zinc**: Data on global visible inventory, SHFE inventory, and zinc downstream product prices were tracked [70][73]. - **Lead**: Data on SHFE and LME lead inventory, and lead production and price data were tracked [84][91]. - **Nickel**: Data on LME and SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel - related product prices were tracked [100][112]. - **Tin**: Data on LME tin inventory, tin - related product prices, and smelting profit were tracked [129][131][125]. - **Industrial Silicon and Stainless Steel**: Their respective price trends and inventory data were tracked [136][137]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated narrowly, rising slightly by 0.01% to $9,567 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell by 0.18% to 77,850 yuan per ton. The US macro situation is mixed, with the April existing - home sales index falling year - on - year. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. High copper prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. With a relatively stable macro situation and fundamental support, it's difficult for copper prices to drop significantly. The current weak market is due to the domestic off - season, and the de - stocking trend and high BACK structure are not suitable for unilateral short - selling. Copper may maintain the current oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum both fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost center of aluminum has declined, and alumina enterprises are showing signs of resuming production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated slightly before the holiday, and the downstream rigid demand for stocking was limited. Aluminum prices continued to adjust narrowly above 20,000 yuan and were not significantly affected by alumina [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel rose by 1.99%, and SHFE nickel rose by 1.25%. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The cost support of the stainless - steel industry chain is strong, but market transactions are weak, and inventory digestion is mainly for 200 - series and 300 - series. In the new energy sector, raw material supply has increased, but the demand for nickel sulfate is hard to increase. After a rapid decline, nickel prices may recover, but in the short term, they will still oscillate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose slightly, SHFE copper fell. The US April existing - home sales index was far lower than expected. LME inventory decreased, Comex increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. High prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. The macro situation is improving, and the fundamentals support copper prices. It's difficult for prices to drop significantly, and the current weak market is due to the off - season. Copper may oscillate, and attention should be paid to capital games [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost of aluminum decreased, and alumina enterprises may resume production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated before the holiday, and downstream stocking was limited. Aluminum prices adjusted narrowly above 20,000 yuan [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and SHFE nickel rose. LME and domestic SHFE inventories decreased. The stainless - steel industry chain has strong cost support but weak transactions. In the new energy sector, supply increased while demand was weak. After a decline, nickel prices may recover but will oscillate in the short term [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The price of scrap copper remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and the import loss increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the premium decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium expanded. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of alumina decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of nickel decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price remained unchanged, and the near - far month spread increased. The spot price remained unchanged, and the domestic and imported spot premiums decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased. The social inventory decreased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased, and the LME price decreased. The near - far month spread increased, and the spot price decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Non - Research Content - The report introduces the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [50][51][52].