【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2026.2.9 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 周度行情回顾 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2026. 2.6 | 2026. 1. 30 | 周变动 | 周张跌幅 | | 2026.2.6 | 2026. 1. 30 | 周变动 | 周张跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2603 | 100100 | 103680 | -3280 | -3. 45% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 100350 | 104460 | -4110 | -3.93% | | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term due to a tight copper ore supply, seasonally weak refined copper demand, and increasing global visible inventories, with support from policy and sentiment [5]. - Aluminum prices are likely to be strong and range - bound as domestic inventory accumulation is not a major negative in the off - season, and LME inventory is low while US aluminum spot premiums are high, with support from loose policies at home and abroad [8]. - The lead industry is currently weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally as winter transportation issues tighten recycled smelting raw materials [10]. - The zinc industry remains weak, but zinc prices are rising to catch up with the sector's macro - attributes as overseas natural gas price hikes raise concerns about European smelting costs, and zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios are at low levels [12]. - Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to capital games in the futures market, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term due to the expected reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia, and it is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices have a potential callback risk due to large supply - side uncertainties and increased profit - taking after a rapid rise, and it is recommended to use light positions or options [19]. - Alumina prices may face difficulties in continuous rebound due to over - capacity, declining cost support, and delivery pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to rise further but with large fluctuations, as the raw material supply is expected to be tight and social inventory continues to decline [25]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong and range - bound due to strong cost support and continuous supply - side disturbances [28] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices hit new highs and then fell, copper prices also rose and then declined. LME copper 3M rose 0.42% to $13,183/ton, SHFE copper main contract closed at 103,460 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,175 tons to 170,525 tons, North American inventory growth slowed, and the cancelled warrant ratio decreased. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly, bonded area inventory decreased, and SHFE daily warrants decreased by 0.1 to 145,000 tons. Shanghai and Guangdong spot copper were at a discount to futures, and the spot import loss of SHFE copper widened to about 850 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,810 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term copper price may be range - bound. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,500 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,300/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Precious metals rose sharply and then fell, aluminum prices fluctuated and closed higher. LME aluminum closed up 0.69% at $3,195/ton, SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,380 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 0.7 to 732,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 142,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, aluminum rod processing fees rebounded with dull trading. The spot discount of East China electrolytic aluminum to futures widened, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 505,000 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio decreasing [7]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong and range - bound. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract today is 24,100 - 24,600 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,140 - 3,220/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 17,079 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 102,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME lead 3S rose $1 to $2,027/ton, with a total position of 171,400 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,825 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 28,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract - first - month contract spread was - 60 yuan/ton. LME lead ingot inventory was 215,200 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 28,100 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 44.556 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.7 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.216, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 174.01 yuan/ton. As of January 26, the national main market lead ingot social inventory was 34,900 tons, an increase of 70 tons from January 22 [9]. - **Strategy**: Although the visible lead ore inventory is rising and higher than in previous years, high by - product profits suppress the further decline of lead concentrate TC. The primary smelting start - up rate has declined slightly but remains high, the recycled smelting start - up rate has increased marginally, and the finished product inventory of primary and recycled smelting plants and lead ingot social inventory have both increased. However, the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.59% to 24,744 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 236,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME zinc 3S rose $53 to $3,292/ton, with a total position of 230,200 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,680 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 35 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 25 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong basis was 25 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai - Guangdong spread of 10 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,900 tons, the domestic Shanghai area basis was 35 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract - first - month contract spread was - 80 yuan/ton. LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,500 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 9,400 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 32.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 2 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.085, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 2,342.1 yuan/ton. As of January 26, the national main market zinc ingot social inventory was 109,900 tons, an increase of 130 tons from January 22 [11]. - **Strategy**: The visible zinc ore inventory is accumulating, zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized, zinc smelting profits have slightly recovered, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory destocking has slowed. After the SHFE - LME price ratio recovered, the outflow of zinc improved. Although short - term bullish sentiment has retreated, the rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about European smelting costs, and zinc prices are rising to catch up with the sector's macro - attributes [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 26, tin prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE tin main contract closed at 425,340 yuan/ton, down 0.98% from the previous day. SHFE inventory was reported at 8,624 tons, an increase of 42 tons from the previous day. In terms of supply, the smelter start - up rate in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, while Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to a shortage of recycled tin raw materials. In terms of demand, although high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchasing意愿, downstream inventories were generally low, and the acceptance of tin prices was gradually increasing. After the tin price fell last week, the rigid demand for replenishment was concentrated. As of January 23, 2026, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from last Friday [13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices are determined by capital games in the futures market. In the context of a strong trend in precious metals and the non - ferrous sector, tin prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for overseas LME tin is $52,000 - 58,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 26, nickel prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 145,380 yuan/ton, down 1.78% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $54.54/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $23/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices rose significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,050 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 7.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [15]. - **Strategy**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate widely in the short term due to the expected reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 19,000/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The WK Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 168,795 yuan in the evening session, down 3.45% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 165,500 - 173,000 yuan, with the average price down 6,000 yuan (- 3.42%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 162,000 - 170,000 yuan, with the average price down 3.63% from the previous day. The LC2605 contract closed at 165,680 yuan, down 8.73% from the previous closing price, and the average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan [18]. - **Strategy**: On Monday, lithium carbonate rose and then fell, and the total contract position decreased by 53,900 lots. Although the fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, the supply - side uncertainty is large. After the previous rapid rise in lithium prices, there are more profit - taking orders, and there is a potential callback risk. It is recommended to use light positions or options. The reference range for the GZEE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 158,800 - 172,600 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 15:00 on January 26, 2026, the alumina index rose 0.37% to 2,729 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 679,300 lots, a decrease of 37,500 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 177 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price rose $1/ton to $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 84 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warrants on Monday were reported at 149,200 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $62/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $60/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, Guinea's shipments are gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production at the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to decline. Alumina smelting over - capacity is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still difficulties in continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,645 yuan/ton, down 0.54% (- 80) on the day, with a long - short position of 319,200 lots, an increase of 834 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in the Foshan market was reported at 14,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in the Wuxi market was reported at 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 395 (+ 180), and the Wuxi basis was - 345 (- 20). The Hongwang 201 in Foshan was reported at 9,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of Shandong high - nickel iron was reported at 1,045 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day. The recycling price of Baoding 304 scrap steel industrial materials was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was reported at 8,450 yuan/50 - base tons, unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was reported at 38,938 tons, a decrease of 7,180 tons from the previous day. As of January 23, social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons, a decrease of 0.51% month - on - month, of which 300 - series inventory was 599,500 tons, a decrease of 0.48% month - on - month [24]. - **Strategy**: Last week, the stainless steel market was active, and price fluctuations intensified. Due to the widening nickel - stainless steel price difference, some nickel - iron production capacity shifted to high - grade nickel matte production, resulting in a tight supply of nickel - iron and limited high - quality tradable resources in the market. In addition, futures warrants are at a low level, and the stainless steel market shows a structurally tight supply in the short term, with near - month contracts continuing to strengthen. Although downstream demand weakened before the Spring Festival, traders' enthusiasm for stocking increased, and social inventory continued to decline. If the Indonesian government intervenes in the suspected monopoly of port logistics in the Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park, the supply of stainless steel may be affected. Overall, the expectation of tight raw

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色高开低走 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价高开低走，持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面，美元指数持续 弱势运行，利好铜价。从盘面来看，贵金属持续强势，早盘高开带 动有色集体高开，但随后有色和贵金属分化明显。产业层面，铜价 反弹，下游采购意愿再度下降，周一电解铜小幅累库，02-03 月差走 弱明显。 沪镍 今日镍价冲高回落，盘中突破 15 万关口，持仓量随着价格同向变 化。宏观层面，美元指数弱势，利好有色。今日镍价虽然午后随着有 色板块一同 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Today, Shanghai copper's main contract price approached the 100,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The commodity market sentiment weakened, and the non - ferrous sector declined across the board. The traditional downstream is resistant to high copper prices. It is expected that the purchasing demand may recover next week. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 RMB mark [5]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum's main contract price fell below the 24,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The commodity market sentiment weakened, and the non - ferrous sector declined across the board. The downstream is cautious about aluminum prices above 24,000 RMB. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, and the monthly spread continues to weaken. There is strong technical pressure, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 RMB mark [6]. - Today, the nickel price showed a downward trend, and the main contract price fell to the 140,000 RMB mark. The short - term macro - environment cooled, and non - ferrous metals declined across the board. The expectation of supply contraction in Indonesian mines continues to support the price, but the pattern of strong expectation and weak reality in the industry remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 140,000 RMB mark [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - On January 16, the raw material inventory of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 2.02% week - on - week, and the finished product inventory increased by 5.77% week - on - week. The downstream market is cautious, and the new order volume is still at a low level. The copper cable operating rate decreased by 0.59 percentage points to 55.99% week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [9]. Aluminum - On January 16, the total inventory of bauxite in 10 domestic ports decreased by 390,000 tons compared with the previous week [10]. Nickel - On January 16, the upstream quotation of high - nickel pig iron was maintained at 1050 - 1100 RMB/nickel point, and the downstream steel mills' procurement was cautious. The significant price increase does not match the actual demand, and there is little trading in the market [11]. 2. Related Charts Copper - The report provides charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][16]. Aluminum - The report provides charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report provides charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Market: LME was absent during Christmas, while domestic Shanghai copper increased positions to a record level, with the price reaching a maximum of 102,000 yuan, and LME copper jumped to a maximum of 12,900 dollars after opening. The high price may face adjustment pressure but could also benefit from raw material shortages and other factors. The target price is adjusted upwards, with LME copper at about 13,100 dollars and Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [1]. - Domestic Supply - Demand: The SMM spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong widened, and the social inventory increased. High copper prices affected the pre - Spring Festival start - up of copper - related intermediate products, but overseas price differences mitigated the impact of the domestic off - season [1]. - Overseas: Congo (Kinshasa) suspended the processing of artisanal copper and cobalt mines, and waiting for overseas investment banks to update the 2026 copper target price [1]. - Strategy: Observe or try an option combination of selling call options at an exercise price of 104,000 yuan and buying put options at 98,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Industry: Policy guidance on alumina and copper smelting industries was issued, but it will take time to implement. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is slowly increasing, while the supply of alumina is in surplus and needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize [1]. - Demand: The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 60.8%, and the apparent consumption was basically flat year - on - year [1]. - Inventory and Spot: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, and spot discounts widened. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods remained stable [1]. - Trend: Shanghai aluminum follows the sector's fluctuations, with limited fundamental drivers, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Bulls can participate based on the MA40 daily line [1]. Zinc - Market: The external market was in high - level shock last week, and Shanghai zinc repeatedly tested 23,000 yuan. The supply is tight, but the end - of - year consumption is weak [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME inventory increased, and the squeeze - out atmosphere declined. Domestic and imported ore TC decreased, and the zinc concentrate import window opened. The supply - side pressure decreased, and there is strong support at around 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc [1]. - Consumption: After the zinc price fell slightly last week, downstream restocking increased, and the start - up rate rebounded. The market is not pessimistic about January's zinc consumption [1]. - Trend: With strong cost support, reduced supply - side pressure, and resilient consumption expectations, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - Market: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose 4% last week but encountered resistance at around 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the spot import window opened. The supply of primary and secondary lead has different situations, and the overall supply tension has not been alleviated [1]. - Consumption: Most battery enterprises stopped purchasing raw lead ingots at the end of the year, and the spot trading was light [1]. - Trend: Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Futures: Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures had active trading after rising [1]. - Macro and Demand: The 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia decreased significantly, and the downstream purchasing willingness weakened at the end of the year. The profit of stainless steel was repaired, and the social inventory decreased [1]. - Spot and Supply: The premiums of different nickel products varied, and the upstream prices began to rebound. The inventories of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel all decreased [1]. - Strategy: Wait for the end of market disturbances and mainly observe in the short term [1]. Tin - Market: The tin market fluctuated at a high level last week, and the market sentiment followed silver and copper prices [1]. - Supply: There is a lack of new information on the situation in eastern Congo (Kinshasa), and attention should be paid to the mining conference in Wa State around the New Year [1]. - Consumption: High tin prices suppressed consumption, and the domestic social inventory increased [1]. - Trend: High - level risks are emphasized. It is recommended to participate in selling out - of - the - money call options with an exercise price of 350,000 yuan and pay attention to the callback range [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures: The lithium carbonate futures rose sharply last week and then tumbled on Monday [1]. - Spot: The spot price of Shanghai electric carbon strengthened, but the market trading was light. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited [1]. - Macro and Demand: The demand maintained strong resilience, but the downstream demand decreased slightly this month [1]. - Supply: The total market inventory decreased, and the ore price was strong [1]. - Trend: The lithium carbonate futures price limit - down on Monday, entering the trend - stopping stage, and risk prevention should be noted [1]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward, driven by the expected end - of - month production cuts and the demand for price support at low prices [1]. - Cost: The price of silicon coal, the core raw material, remained stable [1]. - Supply - Demand: The weekly supply decreased slightly, and the start - up rates in major production areas declined. The production of polysilicon and the start - up rate of organic silicon DMC have different situations [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory in major areas increased slightly [1]. - Trend: The demand still has pressure, but the decline has narrowed. The futures price may remain firm, but the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - Price: The futures price rose and then fell last week, with policy support but also affected by regulatory strengthening and the approaching holiday. The spot price increased slightly [1]. - Supply - Demand: The supply increased slightly, and the demand was affected by rising auxiliary material costs. The price increase has not led to actual transactions [1]. - Inventory: The manufacturer's inventory increased [1]. - Trend: The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" game, and the futures price will probably fluctuate at a high level. Risk control should be noted [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Last night, the macro - atmosphere weakened, and the copper price dropped below the 86,000 yuan mark. Today, the decline slowed, with the open interest of Shanghai copper continuing to decline, and the main futures price stabilizing around 85,600 yuan. After the US non - farm payrolls data was released last night, the US stocks opened high and closed low with a significant decline, and the Asian market continued the downward trend today. In the industry, as the copper price fell, spot transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 85,500 yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum significantly decreased with a reduction in positions, and the main futures price fell below the 21,500 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the downturn. In the industry, as the aluminum price weakened, downstream transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated downward, with little change in open interest, and the main futures price fell below the 115,000 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the decline. As the nickel price dropped, the spot premium gradually strengthened, indicating stronger support in the spot market. Technically, the main futures price breaking below the 115,000 yuan mark has strong downward momentum [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 21st, the weekly SMM copper cable operating rate increased by 1.32 percentage points. As the copper price fell below 86,000 yuan/ton, orders rebounded, but some enterprises were still observing. The demand for automotive wiring harnesses was good. SMM expected a slight increase in the operating rate next week as enterprises would increase production for the end - of - November rush [9]. - **Aluminum**: On November 20th, the Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [10]. - **Nickel**: On November 21st, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 114,400 - 119,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 116,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium and discount quotation range was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Relevant charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Related charts are aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Relevant charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining at a loss. The market has reduced its bets on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Fundamentally, downstream acceptance of high copper prices has increased, and demand is slowly recovering. However, the instability of domestic and international stock markets has dampened confidence in a significant rise in copper prices. The overall global visible inventory is still in a state of accumulation, approaching recent high levels, and the high copper prices have shown a suppressive effect on terminal copper use. Without unexpected events, copper prices are expected to show a high - level oscillating trend, with volatility likely to remain at a low level [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The alumina futures market has shown a narrow - range correction. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the market has been driven by long - position funds. However, due to fundamental support and environmental protection restrictions in the north, high prices have a significant suppressive effect on demand. Aluminum ingot destocking has been continuously hindered, and the proportion of molten aluminum has continued to decline. Aluminum prices continue to be strong but face resistance when rising. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is expected to narrow [2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell slightly, while Shanghai nickel rose. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE inventories decreased. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is showing a weakening trend, with the stainless - steel market being sluggish. In the new energy industrial chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming apparent, and nickel prices are still running weakly, but attention should be paid to macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US Department of Labor will not release the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report will be postponed. The Fed is divided on a December interest rate cut but almost unanimously agrees to end balance - sheet reduction. Copper demand is slowly recovering, but inventory accumulation and high prices may restrict future price increases. Without unexpected events, copper prices will oscillate at a high level with low volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy have different trends. The alumina futures market has a narrow - range correction. The macro - sentiment is warming, but high prices suppress demand. Aluminum ingot destocking is difficult, and the proportion of molten aluminum is decreasing. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum [2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell slightly, and Shanghai nickel rose. Inventory decreased, the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is weak, and the new energy industrial chain has raw material supply tightness. Primary nickel inventory pressure is high, and nickel prices are weak [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 19, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 115 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2522 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 19, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased. SHFE total inventory increased by 1564 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 19, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 750 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 793 tons, and social nickel inventory increased by 3981 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.3%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.8%. SHFE inventory increased by 266 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: There are charts showing the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - and Far - Month Spread**: There are charts showing the near - and far - month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: There are charts showing the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: There are charts showing the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 4. Introduction of the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a junior investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: Not explicitly stated, but implied positive trend [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not explicitly rated [1] - Zinc: Not explicitly stated, but implied bearish trend [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: Not explicitly rated, but implied bearish trend [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: Not explicitly rated, expected to fluctuate [1][9] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated, recommended to be cautious [1][10] Core Views - The prices of different non - ferrous metals show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - economic situation, and policy expectations [2][3][6] - Some metals like aluminum and copper have specific trading strategies based on their market performance and fundamental factors [2][7] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper prices rose during the day, with the spot price at 85,235 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium was 90 yuan, and the Guangdong premium was 40 yuan on the last trading day. The option portfolio strategy is continued [2] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded slightly, with the East China spot premium at 30 yuan. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically flat year - on - year. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and rods increased moderately during the National Day, and the inventory decreased in the past two days. The spot premium and discount improved. The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will test the previous high resistance [2] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continues to fall by about 10 yuan. The current index price is approaching the cash - loss production cut level in Shanxi and Henan [2] Zinc - On Wednesday, the LME zinc spot delivery day, the 0 - 3 month premium declined from a high level, the zinc spot export window opened, and the LME zinc inventory stopped falling and rebounded. The extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets converged. The fourth - quarter Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the domestic consumption peak season is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is weakly operating, and the market trading is light. After the interest - rate cut, the long - position cashing - out tendency is prominent, and the Sino - US friction increases uncertainty. The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with limited downstream demand recovery in the traditional peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up at 281,000 yuan, and the spot tin was reported at 281,700 yuan, basically at par on the last trading day. There is no new news about the resumption of Burmese ore supply, and the domestic leading production capacity that was under maintenance is gradually resuming production this month [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The Sino - US friction affects market risk preference in the short term. The overall inventory level is still high, and there may be a short - term correction risk. Technically, it is weakly operating [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fell slightly. In October, the production capacity in the Xinjiang production area continued to be released, and the production rate in the southern production area remained stable. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest production area from late October to early November. The cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price significantly rebounded, driven by policy - related news. However, the fundamentals lack positive factors, with the spot price narrowly fluctuating, high - price resistance in the market, and expected production increase in October. The risk of inventory accumulation is rising, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability in the market) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not specified [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The copper market lacks a clear guiding thread, with some underground copper mines in Chile resuming operations and waiting for the impact of tariffs. Hold short positions in the 2508 contract [2]. - The aluminum market shows narrow fluctuations, with the social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increasing. The market is in a short - term shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the aluminum oxide market is in a state of surplus [3]. - The zinc market is pulled up by the external market due to continuous inventory reduction in LME zinc and increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The zinc price is expected to face resistance during the rebound [4]. - The lead market has insufficient fundamental contradictions. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is recommended to enter short positions [7]. - The tin market is in a volatile state, and it is advisable to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a daily limit on Monday. The shutdown of a mining area in Jiangxi Yichun by CATL has affected the market, and the downstream is actively restocking [9]. - The industrial silicon market has significant supply pressure, and it is expected to show short - term shocks [10]. - The polysilicon market has a limited upward push in spot prices, and the trend may maintain a range - bound shock [11]. Summary by Metal Copper - Monday, Shanghai copper continued its upward trend in the session, with spot copper at 79,150 yuan and flat - water copper at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. Some underground copper mines in Chile resumed operations, and the market is waiting for the impact of tariffs. Hold short positions in the 2508 contract [2]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the East China spot at a discount of 50 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 23,000 tons and aluminum bars by 4,000 tons. The market is in a short - term shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with a stable spot price of 19,800 yuan. Alumina is in a state of surplus, with limited downward space [3]. Zinc - LME zinc continued to reduce inventory, and the external market pulled up the domestic market. The term structure of zinc has flattened, and the inventory has increased. The zinc price is expected to face resistance during the rebound, and it is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Lead - The lead market has insufficient fundamental contradictions, with funds mainly reducing positions. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the social inventory continues to decline. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the maintenance rhythm of primary lead smelters in late August [6]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The upstream price support has weakened significantly. The inventory situation is complex, and it is recommended to enter short positions as the market is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound [7]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up, with spot tin at 268,000 yuan and a premium of 600 yuan to the delivery month. The social inventory decreased slightly last week. It is advisable to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price had a daily limit on Monday. A mining area in Jiangxi Yichun by CATL shut down, and the downstream actively restocked. The total market inventory decreased slightly, and the price structure shows a weak near - month trend [9]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon rose slightly, with stable spot prices. The market has significant supply pressure, and it is expected to show short - term shocks as the expected increase in downstream demand is less than that of industrial silicon [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded after reaching above 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price increase was limited. The downstream component price decreased, and the trend may maintain a range - bound shock [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper maintained a volatile trend with a slight decline in open interest. The continuous decline of the US dollar index and a positive domestic atmosphere are favorable for copper prices. On the industrial side, on August 7th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week. With the domestic market warming up again, copper prices may continue to rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, aluminum prices opened higher and maintained a strong and volatile consolidation during the day, with open interest continuously increasing. The domestic atmosphere has warmed up, and since aluminum has a strong domestic pricing power, its price has risen significantly. However, it is the off - season for downstream demand, aluminum rods are in a state of inventory accumulation, and electrolytic aluminum has also seen inventory build - up. Despite the bearish industrial situation, the positive macro environment is expected to drive the futures price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the July high [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices rose with a reduction in positions, and the main contract price of Shanghai nickel approached the 122,000 yuan mark. The positive domestic atmosphere recently has led to a strengthening of nickel prices, and there is a strong willingness among previous short - sellers to close their positions. The downstream stainless - steel industry is operating strongly. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 122,000 yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 7th, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the 31st and a decrease of 1,000 tons from the 4th [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 7th, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic market was 549,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the 31st and an increase of 2,000 tons from the 4th [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 7th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,250 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,170 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,420 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,220 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,470 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts 3.2.1 Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][31][27]. 3.2.3 Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][41][42].