| | 操作评级 | 2025年08月11日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | な☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 错 | な女女 | | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 參考 | な女女 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ☆☆☆ | | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜盘中延续涨势，现铜报79150元，平水铜升水110元/吨,市场实际仍缺主线引导。智利前期停工地下铜 ...

作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 2025 年 8 月 7 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 盘面持续回暖，有色偏强运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜维持震荡运行，持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面，美元指数 持续下挫，国内氛围较好，利好铜价。产业层面，周四 Mysteel 电解 铜社库为 13.33 万吨，较上周升 1.20 万吨。国内盘面再度回暖，铜 价或持续回升。 沪铝 昨日夜盘铝价高开，日内维持强势震荡整理，持仓量持续上升。 宏观层面，国内氛围回暖，铝国内定价能力较强，上行明显。产业层 面，下游淡季，铝棒呈现累库态势，电解铝也随之累库。宏观回暖， 产业偏空， ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall non - ferrous sector continued its weak and volatile trend due to the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the cooling domestic market sentiment [4][5][6]. - For Shanghai copper, the main contract price fluctuated weakly below 79,000 yuan. After the end of long - term order delivery near the end of the month, the market's sales sentiment weakened, and the spot premium increased. Technically, the price broke below 79,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the main contract price dropped slightly in the morning and then oscillated narrowly around 20,600 yuan. The position decreased continuously, and the 8 - 9 month spread rebounded. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [5]. - For Shanghai nickel, the main contract price oscillated downward, breaking below 122,000 yuan, and the position decreased continuously. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 - yuan level [6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - For copper, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region had little impact on the main distribution areas of refined copper rod factories. Currently, factories in North China are operating stably, and logistics and transportation are not affected [8]. - For aluminum, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region damaged some roads and hindered traffic. However, the areas where aluminum profile manufacturers are located received less rainfall, and overall production remained stable. Only a few enterprises reported that raw material transportation was affected [9]. - For nickel, on July 29, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 - 123,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel were in the range of - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper month spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][19]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel month spread, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][40].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, the copper price opened low and moved lower, with the main contract of Shanghai copper breaking below the 79,000 yuan mark. The market sentiment turned cold rapidly, and most previously rising commodities saw a downward trend with reduced positions. The social inventory of electrolytic copper on Monday was 125,000 tons, up 3,200 tons from last Thursday. Although the short - term commodity market is weak, Shanghai copper is relatively resistant to decline. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 79,000 yuan mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined on Friday night and fluctuated on Monday, with the position volume continuously decreasing. Affected by the weak market, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum on Monday was 514,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from last Thursday. With the short - term market weakening and inventory accumulation in the aluminum industry, the aluminum price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price soared and then dived on Friday night, remaining weak on Monday with a continuous decline in position volume. Affected by the market, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 yuan level [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: First Quantum's copper production in Q2 2025 was 91,000 tons, a quarterly decline of 8.7% and a year - on - year decline of 11.3%, mainly due to the production decline at Kansanshi. The company's 2025 copper production guidance is 380,000 - 440,000 tons. On July 28, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 125,000 tons, up 3,200 tons from July 24 and down 500 tons from July 21 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 28, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 514,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from July 24 and up 34,000 tons from July 21 [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 28, Mysteel reported that for the Shanghai nickel market, the mainstream reference contract was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,100 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,210 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,660 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,710 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,210 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The charts involve aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts include nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

宏观影响交织 有色金属整体继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-06-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 | | 松江江头 LATION OF | S 不长江期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | | CHANGJIANG SECURITIES | CHANGJIANG FUTURES | | | 走势状态 | 行情观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位震荡 | 关税对铜价影响再度提升，中美元首通话也带来利多预期，铜价偏强，振幅扩大。基本面上，国内硫酸市场多区域上行趋势明显，炼厂生产得以维 | | | 铜 | | 持，精铜产量依然保持高位，但供应端的扰动及极低的TC依然对铜价有潜在支撑。目前铜社会库存低位企稳，市场消费呈现下滑趋势，炼厂则考 | 区间交易 | | | 77500 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated narrowly, rising slightly by 0.01% to $9,567 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell by 0.18% to 77,850 yuan per ton. The US macro situation is mixed, with the April existing - home sales index falling year - on - year. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. High copper prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. With a relatively stable macro situation and fundamental support, it's difficult for copper prices to drop significantly. The current weak market is due to the domestic off - season, and the de - stocking trend and high BACK structure are not suitable for unilateral short - selling. Copper may maintain the current oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum both fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost center of aluminum has declined, and alumina enterprises are showing signs of resuming production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated slightly before the holiday, and the downstream rigid demand for stocking was limited. Aluminum prices continued to adjust narrowly above 20,000 yuan and were not significantly affected by alumina [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel rose by 1.99%, and SHFE nickel rose by 1.25%. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The cost support of the stainless - steel industry chain is strong, but market transactions are weak, and inventory digestion is mainly for 200 - series and 300 - series. In the new energy sector, raw material supply has increased, but the demand for nickel sulfate is hard to increase. After a rapid decline, nickel prices may recover, but in the short term, they will still oscillate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose slightly, SHFE copper fell. The US April existing - home sales index was far lower than expected. LME inventory decreased, Comex increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. High prices and premiums made downstream procurement cautious. The macro situation is improving, and the fundamentals support copper prices. It's difficult for prices to drop significantly, and the current weak market is due to the off - season. Copper may oscillate, and attention should be paid to capital games [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The spot price of alumina rose slightly, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots expanded. The cost of aluminum decreased, and alumina enterprises may resume production. The turnover of aluminum ingots accelerated before the holiday, and downstream stocking was limited. Aluminum prices adjusted narrowly above 20,000 yuan [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and SHFE nickel rose. LME and domestic SHFE inventories decreased. The stainless - steel industry chain has strong cost support but weak transactions. In the new energy sector, supply increased while demand was weak. After a decline, nickel prices may recover but will oscillate in the short term [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The price of scrap copper remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and the import loss increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the premium decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium expanded. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of alumina decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased. The social inventory of nickel decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price remained unchanged, and the near - far month spread increased. The spot price remained unchanged, and the domestic and imported spot premiums decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased. The social inventory decreased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased, and the LME price decreased. The near - far month spread increased, and the spot price decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Non - Research Content - The report introduces the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [50][51][52].