Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances. After the first meeting of the Sino-US London Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism, there has been no policy adjustment regarding reciprocal tariffs or the textile and apparel sector. During the off - season of demand, the upside space for cotton prices is limited, with a possible short - term decline. Attention should be paid to the support level around 13,000, as well as further adjustments to Sino - US policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be between 12,800 and 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0548 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0343 [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) at a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 12,600 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) at a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. Market Situation Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: In the 24/25 season, northern Xinjiang cotton has high impurity content, leading to a shortage of high - quality resources. Most of the remaining cotton is in the hands of large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 439.98 million tons, indicating fast de - stocking [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged. The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, reduced load in spinning and weaving mills, low procurement enthusiasm for raw materials, and a slight accumulation of finished products [7]. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 13,495 with no change; Cotton 05 at 13,480 with no change; Cotton 09 at 13,520 with no change; Yarn 01 at 19,715 with no change; Yarn 09 at 19,770 with no change. Yarn 05 closed at 0, down 100% [6][8]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1332, up 88; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, up 10; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 40, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 25, down 5; The cotton - yarn spread was 6235, up 10; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1210, up 82; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 689 with no change [8]. - **Cotton Price Indexes**: CCI 3128B was 14,852, up 68 (0.46%); CCI 2227B was 12,948, up 41 (0.32%); CCI 2129B was 15,155, up 52 (0.34%); FCI Index S was 13,955, up 112 (0.81%); FCI Index M was 13,642, down 14 (- 0.1%); FCI Index L was 13,412, down 14 (- 0.1%) [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances, and the Sino-US talks bring about periodic emotional fluctuations. However, the characteristics of the domestic downstream off-season are gradually emerging, with insufficient new orders from gauze factories. The driving force for cotton price rebound is weak, and the cotton price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the previous high of 13,560 and the adjustment of the US foreign tariff policy [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.065 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0734 [3] - For inventory management when inventory is high and there are concerns about cotton price decline, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell call options (CF509C13800) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (CF509P12800) at 150 - 200 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot cotton buying price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Situation Analysis Bullish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has a high impurity content, high - quality resources are scarce, and the remaining cotton ownership is mostly concentrated in large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis [5] - Cotton inventory has decreased rapidly. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 4.3998 million tons [5] Bearish Factors - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton that has not been hedged [7] - The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, a decline in the operating rate of gauze factories, general enthusiasm for raw material procurement, strong wait - and - see sentiment, and a slight increase in finished product inventory [7] Price Data Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,490, up 5 (0.04%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,475, unchanged (0%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,520, up 25 (0.19%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,820, down 75 (-0.38%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,725, down 15 (-0.08%) [6][8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,223, up 98; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 45, down 25; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 30, up 20; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,230, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 891, up 25; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 677, unchanged [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was at 14,743, up 123 (0.84%); CCI 2227B was at 12,886, up 106 (0.83%); CCI 2129B was at 15,060, up 132 (0.88%); FCI Index S was at 13,946, up 31 (0.22%); FCI Index M was at 13,761, up 32 (0.23%); FCI Index L was at 13,530, up 31 (0.23%) [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US tariff reduction is expected to benefit the domestic textile and apparel export market, but the current industrial performance shows limited order growth. The suspension of Trump's "Liberation Day" trade policy by the US court is conducive to the further recovery of export orders, yet the actual implementation remains to be verified. The domestic downstream market is cautious, and cotton prices may remain in a narrow range in the short term. With the off - season of demand, the driving force for a cotton price rebound is insufficient. Attention should be paid to weather changes in production areas and further adjustments to US foreign tariffs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 12,800 and 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1087 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.235 [3]. Cotton Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) at a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 200 - 250 to collect premiums and lower costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and willing to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 12,600 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) at a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs [3]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: In the 24/25 season, northern Xinjiang cotton has high impurity content, leading to a shortage of high - quality resources. Most of the remaining cotton is held by large ginning enterprises and traders, making the cotton basis strong. Downstream gauze mills have high operating loads and rigid restocking needs. The cancellation of the Sino - US fentanyl tariff is beneficial for export orders [5][7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged. The downstream market is in the traditional off - season, and the increase in export orders due to Sino - US tariff reduction is limited. Downstream sales are slow, and subsequent orders remain uncertain, with a strong wait - and - see attitude [7]. Cotton and Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,390, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,410, up 10 (0.07%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,320, down 10 (-0.08%); Yarn 01 closed at 19,665, down 100% (unchanged value); Yarn 05 closed at 0, down 100%; Yarn 09 closed at 19,525, down 40 (-0.2%) [6][8]. Cotton and Yarn Price Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,258, up 16; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was - 20, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 90, up 20; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 70, down 25; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,275, up 15; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,077, down 23; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 630, unchanged [9]. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was 14,578, up 6 (0.04%); CCI 2227B was 12,755, up 11 (0.09%); CCI 2129B was 14,857, up 11 (0.07%); FCI Index S was 13,660, down 10 (-0.07%); FCI Index M was 13,484, down 11 (-0.08%); FCI Index L was 13,294, down 10 (-0.08%) [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, the current industrial performance shows limited order increments. During the off - season of demand, the driving force for cotton price rebound is still insufficient, and cotton prices will continue to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to abnormal weather in cotton - producing areas and the progress of US foreign tariff negotiations [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly cotton price is predicted to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1172 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.279 [3] - **Inventory Management Strategies** - When inventory is high and there are concerns about cotton price drops, sell 50% of CF2509 Zhengzhou cotton futures in the range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell 75% of CF509C13800 call options in the range of 200 - 250 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if cotton prices rise [3] - **Procurement Management Strategies** - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy 50% of CF2509 Zhengzhou cotton futures in the range of 12,600 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. Sell 75% of CF509P12800 put options in the range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if cotton prices fall [3] 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors** - In the 24/25 season, cotton in northern Xinjiang has high impurity content, leading to a shortage of high - quality resources. Most of the remaining cotton is held by large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis. - Downstream gauze factories have a high overall operating load and have a rigid demand for restocking [5] - **Likely Negative Factors** - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged. - It is the traditional off - season for the downstream market. The export order increment brought by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is limited, downstream sales are slow, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment due to frequent policy changes [6] 3.3 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - **Futures Prices and Changes** - Cotton 01 closed at 13,385, down 50 (-0.37%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,385, down 60 (-0.45%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,330, down 55 (-0.41%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 0, down 0 (-100%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 0 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,530, down 55 (-0.28%) [7][8] - **Price Spreads** - Cotton basis was 1,265, up 44; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 0, up 10; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 55, down 5; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,200, down 10; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,111, down 90; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 695, down 30 [8] 3.4 Internal and External Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 14,595, down 11 (-0.08%); CCI 2227B was priced at 12,773, down 5 (-0.04%); CCI 2129B was priced at 14,871, down 13 (-0.09%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,670, unchanged; FCI Index M was priced at 13,495, unchanged; FCI Index L was priced at 13,304, unchanged [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, and cotton prices may rebound in the short term. However, there are still many policy uncertainties, and the actual implementation of orders needs to be monitored. If the order continuity is poor, the rebound height of cotton prices may be limited, and they will still face downward pressure during the off - season of demand. Attention should also be paid to weather changes in production areas and cotton inventory reduction [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 12,800 and 13,700. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.1232, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.293 [3]. Cotton Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) with a hedging ratio of 75% at an entry range of 200 - 250 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if cotton prices rise [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800 to prevent rising cotton prices from increasing procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) with a hedging ratio of 75% at an entry range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if cotton prices fall [3]. Core Contradictions - The unexpected reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, but there are many policy uncertainties. The actual implementation of orders needs to be monitored. If the order continuity is poor, the rebound height of cotton prices may be limited, and they will face downward pressure during the off - season of demand. Attention should also be paid to weather changes in production areas and cotton inventory reduction [4]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has a high impurity content, and high - quality resources are scarce. The remaining cotton ownership is mostly concentrated in large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis [5]. - Sino - US talks have been held, and the US has suspended the 24% tariff on Chinese goods for the initial 90 days, with potential subsequent changes. Short - term export orders are expected to increase [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - In the 24/25 season, the processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged [6]. - The downstream market is in the traditional off - season, the finished product inventory of cloth mills has increased slightly, and downstream enterprises are more cautious due to frequent policy changes [6]. Cotton and Yarn Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton 01 | 13,485 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | Cotton 05 | 13,505 | 10 | 0.07% | | Cotton 09 | 13,430 | - 10 | - 0.07% | | Yarn 01 | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Yarn 05 | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Yarn 09 | 19,695 | - 15 | - 0.08% | [5][7] Cotton and Yarn Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton Basis | 1,191 | 64 | | Cotton 01 - 05 | - 20 | - 15 | | Cotton 05 - 09 | 75 | 20 | | Cotton 09 - 01 | - 55 | - 5 | | Cotton - Yarn Spread | 6,305 | 25 | | Domestic - Foreign Cotton Spread | 1,090 | - 70 | | Domestic - Foreign Yarn Spread | - 655 | 0 | [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes | Index | Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCI 3128B | 14,621 | 54 | 0.37% | | CCI 2227B | 12,788 | 67 | 0.53% | | CCI 2129B | 14,903 | 55 | 0.37% | | FCI Index S | 13,652 | 0 | 0% | | FCI Index M | 13,477 | 0 | 0% | | FCI Index L | 13,287 | 0 | 0% | [9]

| 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 12400-13600 | 0.1711 | 0.643 | source： 南华研究 棉花风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | 例 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 库存偏高，担心棉价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | CF2509 | 卖出 | 50% 13600-13 900 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉价上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 CF509C14 | 000 | 卖出 | 75% 200-250 | | 采购管 理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单情 况进行采购 | 空 | 为了防止棉价上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶段买入郑棉期货，在盘面 采购来提前锁 ...