Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US tariff reduction is expected to benefit the domestic textile and apparel export market, but the current industrial performance shows limited order growth. The suspension of Trump's "Liberation Day" trade policy by the US court is conducive to the further recovery of export orders, yet the actual implementation remains to be verified. The domestic downstream market is cautious, and cotton prices may remain in a narrow range in the short term. With the off - season of demand, the driving force for a cotton price rebound is insufficient. Attention should be paid to weather changes in production areas and further adjustments to US foreign tariffs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 12,800 and 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1087 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.235 [3]. Cotton Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) at a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 200 - 250 to collect premiums and lower costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and willing to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 12,600 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) at a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs [3]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: In the 24/25 season, northern Xinjiang cotton has high impurity content, leading to a shortage of high - quality resources. Most of the remaining cotton is held by large ginning enterprises and traders, making the cotton basis strong. Downstream gauze mills have high operating loads and rigid restocking needs. The cancellation of the Sino - US fentanyl tariff is beneficial for export orders [5][7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged. The downstream market is in the traditional off - season, and the increase in export orders due to Sino - US tariff reduction is limited. Downstream sales are slow, and subsequent orders remain uncertain, with a strong wait - and - see attitude [7]. Cotton and Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,390, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,410, up 10 (0.07%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,320, down 10 (-0.08%); Yarn 01 closed at 19,665, down 100% (unchanged value); Yarn 05 closed at 0, down 100%; Yarn 09 closed at 19,525, down 40 (-0.2%) [6][8]. Cotton and Yarn Price Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,258, up 16; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was - 20, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 90, up 20; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 70, down 25; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,275, up 15; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,077, down 23; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 630, unchanged [9]. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was 14,578, up 6 (0.04%); CCI 2227B was 12,755, up 11 (0.09%); CCI 2129B was 14,857, up 11 (0.07%); FCI Index S was 13,660, down 10 (-0.07%); FCI Index M was 13,484, down 11 (-0.08%); FCI Index L was 13,294, down 10 (-0.08%) [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, the current industrial performance shows limited order increments. During the off - season of demand, the driving force for cotton price rebound is still insufficient, and cotton prices will continue to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to abnormal weather in cotton - producing areas and the progress of US foreign tariff negotiations [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly cotton price is predicted to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1172 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.279 [3] - **Inventory Management Strategies** - When inventory is high and there are concerns about cotton price drops, sell 50% of CF2509 Zhengzhou cotton futures in the range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell 75% of CF509C13800 call options in the range of 200 - 250 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if cotton prices rise [3] - **Procurement Management Strategies** - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy 50% of CF2509 Zhengzhou cotton futures in the range of 12,600 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. Sell 75% of CF509P12800 put options in the range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if cotton prices fall [3] 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors** - In the 24/25 season, cotton in northern Xinjiang has high impurity content, leading to a shortage of high - quality resources. Most of the remaining cotton is held by large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis. - Downstream gauze factories have a high overall operating load and have a rigid demand for restocking [5] - **Likely Negative Factors** - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged. - It is the traditional off - season for the downstream market. The export order increment brought by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is limited, downstream sales are slow, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment due to frequent policy changes [6] 3.3 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - **Futures Prices and Changes** - Cotton 01 closed at 13,385, down 50 (-0.37%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,385, down 60 (-0.45%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,330, down 55 (-0.41%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 0, down 0 (-100%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 0 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,530, down 55 (-0.28%) [7][8] - **Price Spreads** - Cotton basis was 1,265, up 44; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 0, up 10; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 55, down 5; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,200, down 10; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,111, down 90; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 695, down 30 [8] 3.4 Internal and External Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 14,595, down 11 (-0.08%); CCI 2227B was priced at 12,773, down 5 (-0.04%); CCI 2129B was priced at 14,871, down 13 (-0.09%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,670, unchanged; FCI Index M was priced at 13,495, unchanged; FCI Index L was priced at 13,304, unchanged [9]

| 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 12800-13700 | 0.1232 | 0.293 | source： 南华研究 棉花风险管理策略建议 棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/5/22 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 现货 敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入 场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存 情况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的 | CF2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 13600- 13800 | | 库存 | 库存偏高，担心棉价下 | 多 | 生产成本 | | | | | | 管理 | 跌 | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉价上 | | | | 200-25 | | | | | 涨还可以锁定现货卖出 ...

| 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 12400-13600 | 0.1711 | 0.643 | source： 南华研究 棉花风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | 例 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 库存偏高，担心棉价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | CF2509 | 卖出 | 50% 13600-13 900 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉价上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 CF509C14 | 000 | 卖出 | 75% 200-250 | | 采购管 理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单情 况进行采购 | 空 | 为了防止棉价上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶段买入郑棉期货，在盘面 采购来提前锁 ...