研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | | | | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 农林畜 | | | | | | 品种 棉花 | | | | | | 多（空） 偏多 | | | | | | 【行情复盘】 ICE3 月合约结算价 64.24 涨 23 点，5 月 65.49 涨 29 点，7 月 66.58 涨 31 点；成 交约 2.6 万手。 郑棉总成交 361542 手，持仓 1122841 手。结算价 1 月 14205 元/吨，5 月 14150 元/吨，9 月 14315 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、根据日本有关机构统计数据，11 月日本进口棉花 1701 吨，环比（1822 吨） 减 少 6.6%， 同 比 （ 2374 吨 ） 减 少 28.3%。 从 累 计 情 况 看 ， 2025/26 年 度 （2025.8-2026.7）日本累计进口棉花约 6692 吨，同比（9912 吨）减少 32.5%。 2、根据美国农业部（USDA）报告，12 月 12 日至 12 月 18 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 棉花：期价震荡偏强，注意整体市场情绪 20251224 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,140 | 0.50% | 14135 | -0.04% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,185 | 0.37% | 20210 | 0.12% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 64.02 | 0.64% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 308,398 | -144,220 | 1,123,245 | 7,199 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 8,895 | -1,999 | 23,262 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较 ...

研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 郑棉走势偏强。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15154 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 9 元/吨。当前 2025/26 南北疆机采 31~41 级/双 29/杂 3 内一口价报价 较多在 14900~15100 公定不等，少量低于 14900，同品质喀什地区低 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking of downstream enterprises [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: CF2605 closed at 14,070 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.39% and a night - session closing price of 14,145 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.53%; CY2603 closed at 20,110 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.30% and a night - session closing price of 20,210 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.50%; ICE US cotton 3 was at 63.61 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.06% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: CF2605 had a trading volume of 452,618 lots, an increase of 48,089 lots compared to the previous day, and an open interest of 1,116,046 lots, a decrease of 421 lots; CY2603 had a trading volume of 9,577 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and an open interest of 23,294 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Zhengzhou cotton had 4,075 warehouse receipts, an increase of 205, and 3,831 valid forecasts, a decrease of 21;棉纱 had 9 warehouse receipts, unchanged, and 0 valid forecasts, an increase of 9 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,901 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37%; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,915 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37%; the price in Shandong was 15,195 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; the price in Hebei was 15,132 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.01%; the 3128B index was 15,154 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06%; the international cotton index M was 72.05 cents/pound, an increase of 0.36%; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29%; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 21,133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.02% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 30 yuan/ton more than the previous day; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was unchanged at 830 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was average, with fixed - price trading relatively better. Spot fixed prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton with the rise of Zhengzhou cotton. The 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked 41 - 31 grade double - 29 with less than 3% impurity had many fixed - price quotes above 15,000 yuan/ton [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable, and the overall market sales were weak. Affected by the slowdown in the downstream grey - cloth market and insufficient new orders, the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises increased slightly, and the phenomenon of bargaining sales increased. Recently, the sales of medium - and low - count yarns (including rotor - spun yarn) were weak, while only high - count combed yarns sold well, and some traders reported a shortage of supplies [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell. After the release of US cotton export sales data, it declined. Due to the approaching holiday, the market trading was light, and it was still in a low - level oscillation [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2] for integer values, and 0 represents a neutral trend [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（12.15-12.19） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本周棉花主力05围绕14000关口震荡修整，周五夜盘再度站上14000关口上方，短期延续震荡 偏多思路，下游买涨不买跌的心理，后续会加速补库囤货。进一步带动棉花上涨预期。 2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消 费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万 吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉花进口12万吨， 同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口 140万吨，消费760万 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉 花进口12万吨，同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产 量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货3128 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton textile industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Core Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating bullish in the near term due to a balanced supply - demand pattern and potential changes in Xinjiang's cotton planting policy in the new year. The spot market for Xinjiang cotton is strong, and yarn - end procurement is proceeding as usual [6]. - The cotton yarn market is under pressure, with many inland textile enterprises facing cash - flow losses. The industry needs to continue monitoring the trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures and downstream restocking [6]. Section Summaries 01. Weekly Summary - Cotton: Futures and spot prices are oscillating upwards. The supply - demand pattern shows both supply and demand increasing, with no prominent contradictions. There are expectations of significant changes in Xinjiang's cotton planting policy, which may reduce output. The Xinjiang cotton spot market is strong, and yarn - end procurement is steady. Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating bullish [6]. - Cotton Yarn: Many inland textile enterprises face cash - flow losses. Although Xinjiang's textile enterprises maintain high operating loads, the industry as a whole is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures and downstream restocking [6]. 02. Market Review - Cotton: The domestic cotton market has limited changes. Supply pressure is not significant, and the demand for cotton raw materials from spinning enterprises is resilient. The upper half of the week saw good procurement, which weakened in the lower half. Spot prices rose, and the basis of some high - basis contracts was adjusted downwards [9]. - Cotton Yarn: The overall trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is weak, with few new orders. Prices are temporarily stable after the previous increase, but most downstream customers are reluctant to accept the price hikes. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintain high operating rates, while inland ones continue to decline [9]. 03. International Macroeconomics - The report presents a series of economic data from the US and the Eurozone, including manufacturing PMI, employment, GDP, CPI, and interest rates, which can impact the cotton market through currency exchange rates and global economic demand [11]. 04. Domestic Macroeconomics - Key domestic economic data such as foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing scale, and fixed - asset investment are provided, which can influence the domestic cotton textile industry [13]. 05. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's December report, the global cotton output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both adjusted downwards, while the ending inventory increases slightly due to an increase in the beginning inventory. The main adjustment is in the US, while other countries' production and consumption data remain relatively stable [16]. - In China, the total supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 260,000 tons to 1.504 million tons, mainly due to an increase in production. The total demand is expected to increase by 130,000 tons to 858,000 tons, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory by 130,000 tons to 646,000 tons [20]. 07. US Cotton Exports - As of November 20, 2025, the US has cumulatively signed contracts to export 1.306 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, reaching 49.16% of the expected annual export volume, and has shipped 520,000 tons, with a shipping rate of 39.80%. China has signed contracts to import 39,000 tons, accounting for 2.98% of the signed volume, and has shipped 15,000 tons [23]. 08. Industrial and Commercial Inventories Start to Increase - As of the end of November, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises increased steadily, reaching 939,600 tons. The commercial inventory of cotton in China reached 4.6836 million tons, a significant increase from the previous month and slightly higher than the same period last year [26]. 09. November Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports Both Increase - In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a 34.4% increase from the previous month and a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. Cotton yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a 25% increase from the same period last year and a 7.14% increase from the previous month [29]. 10. November Cotton Yarn Production Increases Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month - In November, the sales of pure - cotton yarn were relatively good in the first half but weakened in the second half. The comprehensive operating rate of pure - cotton spinning enterprises was stable. The estimated output of pure - cotton yarn in November was 493,000 tons, a 12.9% increase from the same period last year and a 3.7% increase from the previous month [30]. 11. US Cotton Growth - As of September 28, the boll - opening rate of US cotton was 67%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The harvest rate was 16%, the same as the five - year average but 3 percentage points slower than last year. The good - quality rate was 47%, 16 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [36]. 12. US Cotton Weather - As of the week of November 15, 2025, the average temperature and precipitation in the US cotton - growing areas and Texas were significantly lower than the previous year. Since the harvest is in the middle - to - late stage, the dry weather has limited impact [40]. 13. Xinjiang Cotton Inspection - As of December 18, 2025, 1,083 cotton processing enterprises in China have processed and inspected 25,039,991 bales of cotton, weighing 5.6524 million tons [42]. 14. Textile Industry Inventory - In October, the inventory of the textile industry was 406.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 billion yuan and a year - on - year increase of 38 billion yuan. The inventory of textile products was 218 billion yuan, with corresponding increases of 6 billion and 16 billion yuan. The inventory of textile and clothing decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. 15. Domestic Demand Remains Strong - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.3898 trillion yuan, a 1.3% year - on - year increase. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase [50]. 16. External Demand Exports Weaken - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a 5.12% year - on - year decrease. Textile exports increased by 1.03% year - on - year, while clothing exports decreased by 10.86% year - on - year [53]. 17. US Clothing and Apparel Retail Sales in September 2025 - In September 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales (seasonally adjusted) were 27.043 billion US dollars, a 6.65% year - on - year increase but a 0.72% month - on - month decrease. Retailer inventories decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio also declined [58]. 18. US Textile and Apparel Imports in September 2025 - In September 2025, US textile and clothing imports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month in terms of volume, while the import amount decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Cotton product imports showed a slight decrease in volume year - on - year but an increase in amount month - on - month [62]. 19. Warehouse Receipts Continue to Decrease - As of December 18, the number of warehouse receipts was 3,619, with 3,924 valid forecasts, a total of 7,543, an increase of 612 from the previous week [64]. 20. Non - Commercial Long Positions Decrease - As of December 2, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market increased by 2,444, and the net long positions of non - commercial futures alone increased by 2,707. The net long positions of commodity index funds decreased by 479 [68]. 21. Load Changes - As of December 19, the load index of pure - cotton spinning mills, human - made cotton yarn mills, and pure - polyester yarn mills all decreased, indicating a weakening trend in the yarn and fabric loads [71]. 22. Industrial Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton inventory increased by 0.9 days compared to last week, cotton yarn inventory remained flat, and the inventory of pure - cotton grey fabric increased by 0.5 days. Inventory is starting to accumulate as the consumption season enters a slow period [74]. 23. Industrial Chain Profit - This week, the sales situation in Xinjiang and inland areas differed significantly. Xinjiang's spinning enterprises had better sales, while inland ones slowed down. The narrowing of the cotton - yarn price spread due to the increase in Zhengzhou cotton futures has put pressure on spinning enterprises, leading to a decrease in the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises [79].

郑棉盘整积蓄能量 涨势仍未结束 ——国信期货棉花周报 2025年12月19日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 2 后市展望 研究所 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 郑棉本周偏强震荡，周度涨幅1.19%。ICE期棉小幅震荡，周跌幅0.17%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 1、现货价格 研究所 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 2020年1月 2021年1月 2022年1月 2023年1月 2024 年1月 2025年1月 中国棉花价格指数:229 中国棉花价格指数:328 150,000.00 120,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 50,000.00 70,000.00 100,000.00 90,000.00 120,000.00 30,000 80,000 130,000 180,000 230,000 280,000 330,000 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉承压调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15130 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 70 元/吨。当前 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。10月份我国棉 花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14万吨，同比增加16.7%。农村部12月25/26年度： 产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货31 ...