Core Viewpoint - Cotton prices are experiencing fluctuations, with mixed growth conditions for U.S. cotton, indicating potential supply and demand challenges in the market [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The closing price for cotton futures (contract 2509) was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or -0.15% from the previous day [1] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a national average price of 15,169 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: U.S. Cotton Growth Conditions - As of August 3, the blooming rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major planting states was 87%, which is 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The quality rate was 55%, which is 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five-year average [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Internationally, the supply side is minimally affected by weather this year, with a potential oversupply in the global cotton market for the 2025/26 season [1] - U.S. cotton planting area exceeded expectations, and drought conditions have improved, but new export contracts are weak, leading to a lack of upward momentum in international cotton prices [1] - Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, with low import volumes expected in the third quarter and tight inventory before the new cotton harvest [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The good growth conditions for new cotton and strong production expectations may pressure cotton prices in the fourth quarter, with uncertain demand prospects for the second half of the year [1] - The strategy suggests that due to ample global cotton supply in the new year and a lack of upward drivers in the industry, cotton prices may face short-term pressure and fluctuations [1]

Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions, changed contracts, and fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales bases were above CF09 + 1500, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5 was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' goods were quoted around 1550 - 1750 for self - pick - up in the inland [7] - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a decline of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning enterprises still limited production. Due to the loss of cotton yarn, the price - concession efforts were not large, and the decline of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was relatively larger. The spot market transaction of all - cotton grey cloth continued to be insufficient. The sample orders of weaving factories were worse than the same period of previous years. Currently, there were few actual orders, mostly just for necessary needs. It was expected that the factory production would continue to be sluggish in the first ten days of August, and weaving factories would still produce conventional varieties, and it was expected to improve in the middle of the month [7] - Internationally, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period last year), and the boll - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained range - bound fluctuations. Domestically, the actual sown area of this year increased year - on - year. Xinjiang cotton was in the full - bloom stage, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream of the industry was still weak. The inventory of cotton yarn products accumulated again, and the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market fluctuated and stabilized. The near - month contracts were approaching delivery, and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced, so the overall market was under pressure [8] Industry News - The Pakistani government announced that since July 1, 2025, it would impose an 18% tariff on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton cloth, and implement a new tax policy on e - commerce platforms, levying an 18% sales tax and a 5% service tax respectively [9] - According to USDA, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (44% in the previous week and 59% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 58%), the full - boll rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 6%), and the budding rate was 87% (80% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 89%) [9] Data Overview - The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures, including various data on cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates [7][8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", indicating that the short - term demand is average and the supply is in a loose pattern, and the market may fluctuate within a range [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply is bearish as the shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in while the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The overall view is that the market will oscillate in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in, and the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not yet priced in [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Spinning over - capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the basis of Xinjiang Shuang 28 spot at 1000 - 1200. The spread between September and January contracts of Zhengzhou cotton strengthened continuously this week [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. Spinning in Xinjiang has a slight loss, and spinning in the inland has a serious loss. The spread between yarn and cotton prices is running at a low level [3] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for supporting the long - term demand for domestic cotton, which is bullish for far - month contracts. Internationally, Sino - US trade negotiations are in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillation. Short - term demand is average, and supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Lightly short the CF01 contract; Arbitrage: Reverse spread between CF1 - 5 contracts [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - **Area Forecast**: The forecast shows an increase in cotton - planting area. The first survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton - planting area is expected to be 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the area in Xinjiang is expected to be 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [5][8][9] - **Yield per Unit Area**: The report provides historical data on cotton yield per unit area in the whole country and Xinjiang from 2013 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the national yield per unit area is expected to be 149.9 kg/mu, and that in Xinjiang is expected to be 158.5 kg/mu [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Situation - **Inventory**: There is inventory accumulation of finished products. The raw material and finished - product inventories of yarn mills and weaving mills are presented in the form of historical data of multiple years [18][19] - **Factory Load**: The operating rate is declining. The loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are shown in historical data of multiple years [25][26] - **Yarn Mill Profit**: There are losses. The immediate spinning profit and the spot spread between yarn and cotton are presented in historical data of multiple years [29][30] 3.2.3 Downstream Situation - **Inventory**: At a seasonal high. The inventories and finished - product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above designated size are presented in historical data of multiple years [32][33] 3.2.4 Import and Export Situation - **Domestic Import**: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative imports of domestic cotton and cotton yarn from 2018 to 2025 [37] - **US Cotton Export** - **Overall**: The signing volume is at the lowest in recent years, and the shipment is seasonally increasing [39] - **To China**: Significantly decreased year - on - year, at a low level in the same period [48] - **To Pakistan**: Significantly increased year - on - year, at a high level in the same period [54] - **To Vietnam**: The signing and shipment volumes have significantly increased year - on - year [60] - **To Bangladesh**: The shipment volume has decreased year - on - year [67] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: Oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in historical data of multiple years [73][74] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The spreads between Zhengzhou cotton 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [77] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The positions of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [79][80] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt**: The virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in historical data of multiple years [84][85] - **Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures**: The net long positions and the proportion of long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in historical data of multiple years [91][92] - **US Cotton Spread**: In a deep contango state. The spreads between US cotton 05 - 07 and 07 - 12 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [95][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US cotton futures continued to decline, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton dropped significantly. The specific agreement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks has not been finalized, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, downstream consumption is average, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed slows down. The current market price has fallen below the trend line, and short - term bearish sentiment persists [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Market Review**: As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 66.42 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.81 cents per pound from the previous week, with a decline rate of 2.65%. As of the week of July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, 2 percentage points lower than the previous week; the squaring rate was 80%, 9 percentage points higher than the previous week; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 11 percentage points higher than the previous week. As of the week of July 24, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2024/2025 market year was 39,100 bales, a sharp decrease from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/2026 market year was 71,700 bales [9]. - **Domestic Market Review**: As of Friday, the closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,585 yuan per ton, a decrease of 585 yuan per ton from the previous week, with a decline rate of 4.13%. As of the week of August 1, the spinning mill operating rate was 66.6%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from last week and a 1.2 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from last week and an increase of 30,000 tons from the same period last year [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Sweden, but the specific agreement has not been finalized. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, with the continuous strengthening of the basis, downstream consumption is average, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed slows down. The current market price has fallen below the trend line, and short - term bearish sentiment persists [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: On August 1, 2025, the basis was 1,575 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread was - 200 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was - 887 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 180 yuan per ton, and the FC index M 1% was 13,551 yuan per ton. The short - term is still bearish [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: No trading strategy recommendations were provided [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and various international spreads, to show the historical trends of different spreads [27][29][31]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation The report shows multiple charts related to the domestic cotton market, including domestic cotton production, import volume, US export contract volume to China, cotton yarn import volume, downstream operating rate, cotton sales progress, cotton inventory, and spinning mill raw material and finished - product inventory, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the domestic cotton market [40][42][44]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: The report shows the historical trends of CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [58]. - **US Situation**: The report presents multiple charts related to the US cotton market, including planting situation, production situation, production and planting area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the US cotton market [60][62][64]. - **Brazil Situation**: The report shows multiple charts related to the Brazilian cotton market, including production and planting area, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the Brazilian cotton market [73][76][78]. - **India Situation**: The report presents multiple charts related to the Indian cotton market, including production and planting area, consumption and import/export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, to reflect the supply and demand situation of the Indian cotton market [81][84][86].

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton decreased in position and price. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions and varieties of cotton had different sales price bases and quotes. The pure - cotton yarn market's quotes were stable, and the transaction price was approaching the quote. The all - cotton grey fabric market had weak demand, and the fabric price was stable and weak, with only partial improvement in some areas [7]. - Macroscopically, the negotiation on the suspension of tariff extension between China and the US was ongoing. In the international market, as of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, showing a slight decline. The budding, squaring rates of US cotton indicated a slower growth progress, and the outer market was oscillating within a range. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year - on - year, with an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream industry's demand was still weak, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to converge [8]. Industry News - As of July 24, the deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE were 21,617 bales. According to CFTC data, as of July 22, 2025, the net long - position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 18.94%, up 3.97 percentage points week - on - week [9]. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, various spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][23]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report High basis and concerns about tight supply continue to support the cotton futures price. The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the inventory of cotton spinning enterprises has slightly decreased, but the orders for grey cloth are still weak, and the ICE cotton futures are fluctuating narrowly with a slight decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 14,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.67%, and the night - session closed at 14,150 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,235 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.66% decline, and the night - session closed at 20,280 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.3 cents/pound with a 0.10% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 666,728 lots, an increase of 230,035 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 866,475 lots, a decrease of 21,810 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 14,576 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 9,411 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,226, a decrease of 39, and the effective forecast was 350, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 91, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 96 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.58% compared with the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.59%. The price in Shandong was 15,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan or 0.52%; the price in Hebei was 15,589 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.33%. The 3128B index was 15,609 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan or 0.39%. The international cotton index M was 75.80 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.62%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.19%, and the arrival price was 22,092 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan or 0.07% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the delivery of old cotton is relatively good, and the basis quotes of some cotton enterprises have slightly decreased, but the overall basis is still stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the Corps' goods are quoted at 1600 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, with downstream rigid - demand procurement as the main mode, and traders have a small amount of restocking. The inventory of spinning enterprises has slightly decreased. The orders for grey cloth are still weak, mainly small rigid - demand orders. Traditionally, market sampling orders will appear around the end of July and early August, but textile mills are more cautious this year, so they mainly purchase small orders of cotton yarn [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly yesterday, and the market still lacks fundamental guidance. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US cotton slightly decreased. As of the week of July 27, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% in the previous week and 49% in the same period last year [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Overview - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions and declined. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the downstream demand was difficult to boost. Spinning mills were still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate continued to decline due to high temperatures in the inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth was sluggish, with mostly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market was concerned about the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, the drought coverage remained low, and the net long position of CFTC funds increased slightly week-on-week. The external market had limited driving force and maintained a range-bound operation. Domestically, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest remained. The downstream spinning mills had a cold demand for cotton raw materials, but the overall rigid demand still existed. The operating rate of inland spinning mills had dropped to a relatively low level and was expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and shifted months, with a shock adjustment, and the 9-1 spread continued to converge [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions and declined. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine-picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) was mostly in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1500. Some 2023/24 Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps machine-picked cotton (3129/29B) was quoted at 15,600 - 15,700 yuan/ton or above. The basis of machine-picked cotton in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang (Grade 31, double 29) was mostly quoted in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1250, with a small amount lower than this price. The sales basis of the same quality machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang in the 2023/24 season was mainly in the range of CF09 + 900 - 1100, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The market price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the downstream demand was difficult to boost. Spinning mills were still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate continued to decline due to high temperatures in the inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth was sluggish, with mostly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market was concerned about the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, the drought coverage remained low, and the net long position of CFTC funds increased slightly week-on-week. The external market had limited driving force and maintained a range-bound operation. Domestically, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest remained. The downstream spinning mills had a cold demand for cotton raw materials, but the overall rigid demand still existed. The operating rate of inland spinning mills had dropped to a relatively low level and was expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and shifted months, with a shock adjustment, and the 9-1 spread continued to converge [8] 2. Industry News - As of July 24, the number of deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE was 21,617 bales, compared with 21,635 bales on the previous trading day. According to CFTC data, as of July 22, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was -18.94% (up 3.97 percentage points week-on-week, and up 3.97 percentage points last week) [9]. - According to the statistics of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), as of July 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan for the 2025/26 season reached 46,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22%. Among them, textile mills purchased 39,000 tons, and the unsold new cotton was 2,000 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, as well as exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee [17][18][23]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents a "near - strong, far - weak" view on cotton. It shows the current situation of the cotton market from multiple aspects including fundamentals, macro and industry news, and the situation of US cotton [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2509 was 14,250 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.86%, and the night - session closing price was 14320 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.49% - 0.51%. The closing price of CY2509 was 20,430 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.24%, and the night - session closing price was 20535 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton 12 was 68.84 cents/pound with a 0.41% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 673,094 lots, an increase of 286,459 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 919,015 lots, an increase of 35,587 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 10,517 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 20,012 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,585, a decrease of 58, and the effective forecast was 223 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 97, a decrease of 1, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 98 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan or 1.70% compared with the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan or 1.73%. The price in Shandong was 15,302 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 0.50%, and in Hebei was 15,393 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.52%. The 3128B index was 15,354 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan or 0.54%. The international cotton index M was 76.14 cents/pound with no change. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 0.88%, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,121 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.00% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,330 yuan/ton with no change [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spots was sluggish, and some high - price quotes began to lower the basis. Different grades of cotton in Xinjiang had different basis quotes for self - pick - up in the region [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market changed little, but there were potential restocking and speculative demands from downstream due to continuous price increases. The price of all - cotton grey cloth increased, with some small orders increasing and urgent delivery times, but the overall market was still sluggish with limited improvement. Currently, fabric mills still faced high inventory pressure for regular varieties, and actual orders were negotiated based on quantity [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: The ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday, supported by the expectation of a possible trade agreement between the US and other countries. However, the strengthening of the US dollar and the average weekly export sales data of US cotton limited the increase. As of the week ending July 10, the export shipment of US cotton in the 24/25 season was 156,400 bales, a 35% decrease from the previous week and a 29% decrease from the four - week average. The net sales of US cotton in the 25/26 season increased by 73,000 bales [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2, representing different levels of bullish or bearish views, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton is to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals of cotton, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price spreads, as well as macro and industry news, and concludes that the cotton market will maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,850 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.18% daily increase, and 13,945 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.69% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,050 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.35% daily increase, and 20,140 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.45% increase; ICE cotton futures for December closed at 68.57 cents/pound with a 0.68% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 297,507 lots, an increase of 95,684 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 845,684 lots, a decrease of 9,262 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,077 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 21,168 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,716, a decrease of 91 compared to the previous day, and the effective forecast was 223, an increase of 7. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 98, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 98 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan compared to the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 14,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,264 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,362 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan compared to the previous day; the 3128B index was 15,302 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan compared to the previous day; the international cotton index M was 75.70 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent compared to the previous day; the price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the arrival price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 was 22,109 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - **Price Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 price spread was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous day; the price spread between Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton and CF509 was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: According to TTEB information, the spot trading of cotton has not improved, and textile enterprises mainly purchase on a need - to - basis, with the overall basis remaining stable. Different regions and varieties have different sales basis quotes [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has not improved, and the overall atmosphere is dull. Textile enterprises continue to reduce production by lowering the operating rate, and the inventory pressure is gradually increasing. The trading of all - cotton grey cloth is dull, the increase in the grey cloth transaction price is less than that of cotton, and the losses continue. Grey cloth orders are mainly small and scattered, the sales of finished product inventory are scarce, and some weaving factories said that sales improved only after price cuts, and downstream procurement is cautious [2] - **US Cotton Situation**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly for the second consecutive day. The weather forecast shows that the weather in the US cotton - producing areas will be dry in the next two weeks, which triggered some short - covering [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current cotton market is influenced by both domestic and international factors. Internationally, macro - factors have a positive impact on US cotton, with its growth and sales showing specific trends. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the short - term. The supply and demand situation at home will also affect the price trend, and macro - factors such as tariff extensions may bring uncertainties [8][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: Macro - factors have a certain positive impact on US cotton, and its trend is expected to be slightly upward with oscillations. The growth progress of US cotton in planting, budding, and boll - setting is slightly slower year - on - year, but the excellent rate in the main production areas has recovered above the annual average, including in Texas. As of the week ending June 26, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing decreased by 13% week - on - week and 66% compared to the average of the previous four weeks, while 2025/26 annual signing was 2.42 tons. The weekly shipment of 2024/25 US upland cotton increased by 39% week - on - week and 9% compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of June 27, the number of un - priced contracts by sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 252 to 25402, equivalent to a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers in the 25/26 annual increased by 599 to 43715, equivalent to 990,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of un - priced contracts by sellers on ICE decreased to 48293, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 874 compared to last week, equivalent to a decrease of 20,000 tons [8]. - **Brazil**: As of the week ending June 28, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 5%, a 1 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and 4.5% slower than the same period last year. The slowdown in harvesting is mainly due to the backward progress in the main production areas, which may be related to the slow growth of crops [8]. - **Global Cotton Situation**: According to the latest USDA data in June, the global cotton production in 25/26 decreased by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. Total consumption decreased by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Market Trend**: This week, Zhengzhou cotton showed an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and it is expected to maintain this trend in the short - term [15]. - **Supply Side**: As of mid - June, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.1269 million tons, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of June 27, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8799 million tons, a decrease of 111,600 tons (3.73%) compared to last week. As of July 3, the cumulative sales volume of 2024 cotton was 6.301 million tons, 958,400 tons higher than the five - year average [15]. - **Demand Side**: Currently, it is the off - season for market consumption. In mid - June, the yarn inventory days in China were 23.86, at a medium level in the same period over the years, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46, also at a relatively low - medium level in the same period over the years. As of July 3, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 71.1%, a 0.14% decrease compared to last week, with little overall change. There was no obvious change in the downstream orders of spinning mills [15]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Judgment**: The 30 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton yesterday was 5.6505. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on July 3 was 0.9489, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.5368, with a decrease in both call and put trading volumes. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: When the boost from new cotton purchases to the market is limited, if the demand side does not show obvious improvement, the price may weaken. If the demand side performs well, it will have a positive impact on the market. Tariff extensions in July and August may bring uncertainties, and if the tariff issue eases, commodity prices may strengthen [24]. - **Specific Strategies**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will be slightly upward with oscillations, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show an oscillating and slightly upward trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, it is recommended to sell put options [24]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report presents the internal and external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, as well as the price trends of domestic cotton and imported cotton under 1% tariff [26]. - **Inventory Situation**: It shows the historical data of cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [30]. - **Basis Situation**: It includes the basis situations of cotton in different months and the basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [32].