General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2509: Previous settlement price 8492, opening price 8450, high price 8490, low price 8412, closing price 8466, down 26 (-0.31%), volume 445676, open interest change -3164 [7] - P2601: Previous settlement price 8498, opening price 8452, high price 8488, low price 8420, closing price 8468, down 30 (-0.35%), volume 46546, open interest change 3486 [7] - Y2509: Previous settlement price 7968, opening price 7936, high price 7940, low price 7862, closing price 7894, down 74 (-0.93%), volume 308543, open interest change -22325 [7] - Y2601: Previous settlement price 7958, opening price 7930, high price 7930, low price 7872, closing price 7902, down 56 (-0.70%), volume 81936, open interest change 19354 [7] - OI2509: Previous settlement price 9614, opening price 9590, high price 9608, low price 9512, closing price 9548, down 66 (-0.69%), volume 265206, open interest change -16717 [7] - OI2601: Previous settlement price 9547, opening price 9522, high price 9549, low price 9451, closing price 9492, down 55 (-0.58%), volume 36194, open interest change 3884 [7] - Quotes from Dongguan rapeseed oil traders: Dongguan triple - refined rapeseed oil 09 + 60, single - refined rapeseed oil 09 + 240. Basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: single - refined soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509 + 220, October - January Y2601 + 300. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 150 yuan/ton, real orders subject to negotiation [7] Oil and Fat Review - Oil and fat prices showed a narrow - range oscillation. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release monthly data on Thursday. A survey indicates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June is expected to remain flat or decline, ending the previous four - month growth trend due to unexpectedly reduced production and strong exports. China's domestic oil and fat supply - demand is stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, during the off - season of domestic oil and fat consumption, oil and fat inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil and fat price spread shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse arbitrage as the main strategy. If crude oil and US soybean oil weaken, the short - term trend of domestic oil and fat will be under pressure. Attention should still be paid to the progress of US tariff policies [8] 2. Industry News - Reuters survey: Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June may drop to 1.99 million tons, production is 1.7 million tons (down 4.04% month - on - month), and exports are 1.45 million tons. Bloomberg's estimated data shows that June production is 1.74 million tons, exports are 1.44 million tons, and inventory is 2 million tons [9] - Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA): Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 is estimated to be 1.69 million tons (down 4.69% month - on - month). Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased 0.68% month - on - month, production in Sabah decreased 11.95% month - on - month, production in Sarawak decreased 8.98% month - on - month, and production in East Malaysia decreased 11.24% month - on - month [9] - Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA): Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 decreased 0.65% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased 0.23%, and oil extraction rate decreased 0.08% [9] - Shipping survey agency SGS: Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1.195265 million tons, an increase of 11.7% compared to 1.069643 million tons in May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to 132,000 tons in the same period last month. ITS exports were 1.382 million tons (up 4.7% month - on - month), and AmSpec data was 1.286 million tons (up 4.5% month - on - month) [9][10] 3. Data Overview - StoneX raised Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/25 season by over 500,000 tons to a record 168.75 million tons due to higher production in Bahia state [15] - As of July 4, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 6.4 million tons, compared with 7.6 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7 million tons. The cumulative arrivals this month were 1.5 million tons. According to data tracked and counted by China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in July 2025 is 11.3 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons (7.32% month - on - month) compared with the forecasted arrival volume of 10.5 million tons last month, and an increase of 1.9 million tons (20.86% year - on - year) compared with the arrival schedule of 9.3 million tons in the same period last year [15]

Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic three major oils are dragged down by international oil prices due to the mitigation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August. The decline in the month-on-month growth of Malaysia's export data from June 1 - 30 is negative for palm oil prices. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, it is the off - season for domestic oil consumption, oil inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse spreads being the main trend. Attention should be paid to the upcoming quarterly grain inventory report and crop planting area report [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: first - grade soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509+220, October - January Y2601 + 280. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 240 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7] - **Market Analysis**: The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic oils are affected by international oil prices. The mitigation of Middle East geopolitical risks and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August lead to a decline. Malaysia's export data decline in month - on - month growth is negative for palm oil. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable, with increasing inventories and pressured basis during the consumption off - season. The price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, and reverse spreads are the main trend. Attention should be paid to relevant reports [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Policy**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in July, reducing the export tax to 8.5% at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From June 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 0.25% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month - on - month [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase from May. According to AmSpec, the exports in June were 1,286,461 tons, a 4.5% increase from May [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][19][20][25][26]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that short - term oils and fats will maintain a volatile trend. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while palm oil's fundamentals are gradually weakening and may trend lower. However, the downward space for palm oil on the chart may be limited [11]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on May 12, 2025, were 7814, 8024, and 9378 respectively, with price changes of 34, 138, and 23. The basis for each variety in different regions is also presented [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 6, 2, and 178, with price changes of - 8, - 12, and 30 respectively [4]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 09 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were - 210, 1564, and 1354, with price changes of - 11, 0, and - 115 respectively. The oil - meal ratio was 2.69, with a change of 0.003 [4]. - **Import Profit**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 428, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1075 [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 18th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 62.0, 35.6, and 83.6 million tons respectively [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: APK - Inform lowered Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest forecast by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons, corn production by 7.3% to 27 million tons, and 2025/26 grain export forecast by 4% to 40.9 million tons. It raised the 2025 soybean harvest forecast to 6.11 million tons and 2025/26 soybean export forecast to 3.69 million tons [6]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: Affected by Sino - US trade tariffs, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1%. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 33.73 million tons, a 5.28% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of history [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: Sino - US trade tariffs led to an overall rebound in oils and fats. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 65.44 million tons, a 4.40% increase from the previous week. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil will gradually accumulate inventory [8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations, rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. As of May 2, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 83.55 million tons, an increase from the previous week, remaining at a high level in the same period of history [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term oils and fats are expected to remain volatile. Consider lightly - weighted long positions in palm oil for a rebound or short positions after a rebound. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09 [12]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13].

Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The trends of the three major oils are quite different. The Malaysian crude palm oil futures have fallen to an 8 - month low, and the Dalian palm oil has also declined due to increased supply, weak exports, and pressure from the falling crude oil market. However, the lower price of palm oil compared to soybean oil may improve future exports and limit the price decline. Technically oversold conditions may also lead to price rebounds, and in the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate narrowly again. The expected increase in imported soybeans may ease the tight supply of soybean oil and potentially lower the basis in the future. Rapeseed oil is strongly affected by import policies, with a significant year - on - year decline in future purchase forecasts, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and US biodiesel policies [7] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Jiangsu market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil, spot 09 + 400, June - September 09 + 300; Third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 150. In May, the basis quotes of rapeseed oil traders in East China and Guangxi: Third - grade rapeseed oil in Qinfang factories 09 + 0. For 24 - degree palm oil in East China, from May 20 to June 15, the delivery price is P09 + 480 yuan/ton, and from June 25 to July 25, it is P09 + 400 yuan/ton [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. Reuters estimates that in April, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.62 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports were 1.1 million tons, consumption was 338,000 tons, and inventory was 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimates that production was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.13 million tons, imports were 70,000 tons, consumption was 325,000 tons, and inventory was 1.79 million tons [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was estimated at 1.73 million tons, a 24.62% month - on - month increase. Reuters estimated April production at 1.62 million tons, imports at 50,000 tons, exports at 1.1 million tons, consumption at 338,000 tons, and inventory at 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China, palm oil basis changes, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China, the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in East China, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate [10][19][21][26][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils and fats fluctuated and rose. Soybean oil's spot tightness boosted the futures price, and the basis was firm before May Day. Palm oil entered the production - increasing season, and the basis decreased significantly this week. Rapeseed oil followed the other oils and fats due to quiet news. Recently, the main contracts of oils and fats shifted to 09, and the soybean - palm oil spread changed little. As of April 25, the spread of soybean - palm oil 09 contract was - 442, and that of rapeseed - palm oil 09 contract was 1130 [2][17] - Looking ahead, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Palm oil is expected to have large fluctuations, and rapeseed oil still has some opportunities to rise [3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of palm oil 2509 contract was 8376 yuan/ton, up 244 yuan or 3% week - on - week; soybean oil 2509 contract was 7934 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan or 2.98%; rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9506 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan or 3.1% [12] - Spot: In the Guangdong area, the spot price of palm oil was 9030 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + 654, down 194 yuan. In the Tianjin area, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8284 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan or 2.78%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 350, down 6 yuan. In the Jiangsu area, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9626 yuan/ton, up 286 yuan or 3.06%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 120, up 1 [12] Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.88% month - on - month. During April 17 - 24, 6 new ships were purchased in China. The consumption of palm oil remained at a rigid level, and the weekly trading volume was limited [13] - Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 38.44 tons, up 1.33 tons or 3.58% week - on - week, and down 11.24 tons or 22.62% year - on - year [13] Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In March 2025, China imported 350.3 million tons of soybeans, down 36.78% year - on - year. From January to March, the cumulative import was 1710.9 million tons, down 7.9%. It is expected that the domestic soybean supply will turn abundant in the second quarter. From April 12 - 18, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 131.54 million tons, with an operating rate of 36.98% [14] - Demand: During the statistical period, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 22.03 million tons, with an average daily volume of 4.406 million tons, up 17.376% week - on - week [14] - Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 65.04 million tons, down 4.35 million tons or 6.27% week - on - week, and down 18.86 million tons or 22.48% year - on - year [15] Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of April 18, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 7 million tons, remaining the same as the previous period. The production of rapeseed oil was 2.87 million tons, also unchanged. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase next week, and the production of rapeseed oil will also increase [16] - Inventory: As of this week, the inventory of imported rapeseed was 32 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 12.05 million tons, down 0.65 million tons [16] Future Outlook - Soybean oil: As of the week of April 20, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than the five - year average of 5%. About 23% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The CBOT soybean is expected to fluctuate strongly. Due to the soybean clearance issue in China, oil mills are short of soybeans, but the supply will increase in the second quarter. Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][18] - Palm oil: From April 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.88% month - on - month. The export increased from April 1 - 20. It is expected that the soybean - palm oil spread will continue to repair, and palm oil is expected to have large fluctuations [4][19][20] - Rapeseed oil: As of April 20, the export volume of rapeseed this year reached 752.2 million tons, up 72.3% year - on - year. The supply of rapeseed is tight. Although the inventory of rapeseed oil in ports is high, the market circulation is scarce. Rapeseed oil still has some opportunities to rise [6][21]