Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that short - term oils and fats will maintain a volatile trend. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while palm oil's fundamentals are gradually weakening and may trend lower. However, the downward space for palm oil on the chart may be limited [11]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on May 12, 2025, were 7814, 8024, and 9378 respectively, with price changes of 34, 138, and 23. The basis for each variety in different regions is also presented [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 6, 2, and 178, with price changes of - 8, - 12, and 30 respectively [4]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 09 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were - 210, 1564, and 1354, with price changes of - 11, 0, and - 115 respectively. The oil - meal ratio was 2.69, with a change of 0.003 [4]. - **Import Profit**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 428, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1075 [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 18th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 62.0, 35.6, and 83.6 million tons respectively [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: APK - Inform lowered Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest forecast by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons, corn production by 7.3% to 27 million tons, and 2025/26 grain export forecast by 4% to 40.9 million tons. It raised the 2025 soybean harvest forecast to 6.11 million tons and 2025/26 soybean export forecast to 3.69 million tons [6]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: Affected by Sino - US trade tariffs, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1%. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 33.73 million tons, a 5.28% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of history [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: Sino - US trade tariffs led to an overall rebound in oils and fats. As of May 9, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 65.44 million tons, a 4.40% increase from the previous week. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil will gradually accumulate inventory [8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations, rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. As of May 2, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 83.55 million tons, an increase from the previous week, remaining at a high level in the same period of history [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term oils and fats are expected to remain volatile. Consider lightly - weighted long positions in palm oil for a rebound or short positions after a rebound. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09 [12]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13].

Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The trends of the three major oils are quite different. The Malaysian crude palm oil futures have fallen to an 8 - month low, and the Dalian palm oil has also declined due to increased supply, weak exports, and pressure from the falling crude oil market. However, the lower price of palm oil compared to soybean oil may improve future exports and limit the price decline. Technically oversold conditions may also lead to price rebounds, and in the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate narrowly again. The expected increase in imported soybeans may ease the tight supply of soybean oil and potentially lower the basis in the future. Rapeseed oil is strongly affected by import policies, with a significant year - on - year decline in future purchase forecasts, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and US biodiesel policies [7] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Jiangsu market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil, spot 09 + 400, June - September 09 + 300; Third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 150. In May, the basis quotes of rapeseed oil traders in East China and Guangxi: Third - grade rapeseed oil in Qinfang factories 09 + 0. For 24 - degree palm oil in East China, from May 20 to June 15, the delivery price is P09 + 480 yuan/ton, and from June 25 to July 25, it is P09 + 400 yuan/ton [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. Reuters estimates that in April, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.62 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports were 1.1 million tons, consumption was 338,000 tons, and inventory was 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimates that production was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.13 million tons, imports were 70,000 tons, consumption was 325,000 tons, and inventory was 1.79 million tons [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was estimated at 1.73 million tons, a 24.62% month - on - month increase. Reuters estimated April production at 1.62 million tons, imports at 50,000 tons, exports at 1.1 million tons, consumption at 338,000 tons, and inventory at 1.794 million tons. Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China, palm oil basis changes, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China, the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in East China, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate [10][19][21][26][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils and fats fluctuated and rose. Soybean oil's spot tightness boosted the futures price, and the basis was firm before May Day. Palm oil entered the production - increasing season, and the basis decreased significantly this week. Rapeseed oil followed the other oils and fats due to quiet news. Recently, the main contracts of oils and fats shifted to 09, and the soybean - palm oil spread changed little. As of April 25, the spread of soybean - palm oil 09 contract was - 442, and that of rapeseed - palm oil 09 contract was 1130 [2][17] - Looking ahead, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Palm oil is expected to have large fluctuations, and rapeseed oil still has some opportunities to rise [3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of palm oil 2509 contract was 8376 yuan/ton, up 244 yuan or 3% week - on - week; soybean oil 2509 contract was 7934 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan or 2.98%; rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9506 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan or 3.1% [12] - Spot: In the Guangdong area, the spot price of palm oil was 9030 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + 654, down 194 yuan. In the Tianjin area, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8284 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan or 2.78%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 350, down 6 yuan. In the Jiangsu area, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9626 yuan/ton, up 286 yuan or 3.06%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 120, up 1 [12] Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.88% month - on - month. During April 17 - 24, 6 new ships were purchased in China. The consumption of palm oil remained at a rigid level, and the weekly trading volume was limited [13] - Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 38.44 tons, up 1.33 tons or 3.58% week - on - week, and down 11.24 tons or 22.62% year - on - year [13] Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In March 2025, China imported 350.3 million tons of soybeans, down 36.78% year - on - year. From January to March, the cumulative import was 1710.9 million tons, down 7.9%. It is expected that the domestic soybean supply will turn abundant in the second quarter. From April 12 - 18, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 131.54 million tons, with an operating rate of 36.98% [14] - Demand: During the statistical period, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 22.03 million tons, with an average daily volume of 4.406 million tons, up 17.376% week - on - week [14] - Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 65.04 million tons, down 4.35 million tons or 6.27% week - on - week, and down 18.86 million tons or 22.48% year - on - year [15] Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of April 18, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 7 million tons, remaining the same as the previous period. The production of rapeseed oil was 2.87 million tons, also unchanged. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase next week, and the production of rapeseed oil will also increase [16] - Inventory: As of this week, the inventory of imported rapeseed was 32 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 12.05 million tons, down 0.65 million tons [16] Future Outlook - Soybean oil: As of the week of April 20, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than the five - year average of 5%. About 23% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The CBOT soybean is expected to fluctuate strongly. Due to the soybean clearance issue in China, oil mills are short of soybeans, but the supply will increase in the second quarter. Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][18] - Palm oil: From April 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.88% month - on - month. The export increased from April 1 - 20. It is expected that the soybean - palm oil spread will continue to repair, and palm oil is expected to have large fluctuations [4][19][20] - Rapeseed oil: As of April 20, the export volume of rapeseed this year reached 752.2 million tons, up 72.3% year - on - year. The supply of rapeseed is tight. Although the inventory of rapeseed oil in ports is high, the market circulation is scarce. Rapeseed oil still has some opportunities to rise [6][21]