来源：市场资讯 （来源：南京玛合雅） 一、【市场关注】 1、印度尼西亚贸易部表示，印尼已将1月份毛棕榈油参考价格定为每吨915.64美元，低于12月份的每吨 926.14美元。新的参考价格意味着1月份毛棕榈油的出口税将维持在每吨74美元。此外，印尼还对毛棕 榈油单独征收10%的出口专项税。 2、据SPPOMA数据显示，：2025年12月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期减少8.49%，出油率环 比上月同期减少0.12%，产量环比上月同期减少9.12%。 注：其他关于大豆与豆粕资讯可看公众号第一篇《豆粕晚评》 二、【每日豆油现货报价】 | 市场 | 品名 | 等级 | 包装方式 | 价格 | 演 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 治州 | 成品大豆油 | 国际-级 | 前装 | 8270 | -10 | | 天津 | 成品大豆油 | 国标一级 | 散装 | 8250 | -10 | | 北京 | 成品大豆油 | 国标一级 | 散转 | 8220 | -10 | | 郑州 | 成品大豆油 | 国际-级 | 散装 | 8370 | -10 | | 图 | 成品 ...

油脂周报：油脂呈现震荡偏弱，整体仍缺乏驱动 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号：F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. Gapki数据显示印棕10月产量增至476万吨，10月出口有所增加，但仍处偏低水平，库存有所去库至233万 吨，继续处于历史同期偏低水平。 2. SEA数据显示11月印度食用油进口115万吨，环比减少13%，处于历史同期较为偏低水平，其中棕榈油小增 至63万吨，豆葵油降至37、14万吨，但豆油进口仍偏高。 3.本周油脂整体呈现震荡回落。国内豆油库存拐点已至，目前持续小幅去库，但库存整体不缺，豆油价格更多 跟随油脂整体走势波动。在菜油供应充足的情况下，菜油预计价格上方承压。近期油脂缺乏利多驱动，情绪偏 弱，美国生柴最终方案或推迟至明年、马棕库存持续高企去库缓慢等均不利于油脂的上涨。不过油脂经历了大 幅下跌，预计下方空间将较为有限，建议谨慎追空。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国际市场—印棕10月去库较多，CPO现货价稳中有降 50 100 1 ...

研究报告 油脂周报 市场利空，油脂震荡回落 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价震荡回落，全周豆油 Y2605 合约下跌 1.06%， 以 7994 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2605 合约下跌 2.40%以 8552 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2605 合约下跌 0.64%，以 9347 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 一、现货分析： 截止至 2025 年 12 月 11 日，张家港地区四级豆油现货价格 8,570 元/吨，较上一交易 日上涨 50 元/吨。从季节性角度来分析，当前张家港地区四级豆油现货价格较近 5 年相比 维持在较低水平。 截止至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，广东地区 24 度棕榈油现货价格 8,580 元/吨，较上一交易 日下跌 100 元/吨。从季节性角度来分析，当前广东地区 24 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - From November 24 - 28, the palm oil and soybean oil in the grease sector rebounded, while rapeseed oil fluctuated. Palm oil is expected to have short - term volatile rebounds; soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to run in a short - term volatile manner [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Malaysia's palm oil production increased with a narrowing growth rate and weak exports. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period last month. From November 1 - 25, different institutions showed a decline in palm oil exports compared to the same period last month. SGS estimated a 40.77% decrease, ITS showed an 18.8% decrease, and AmSpec showed a 16.4% decrease [3] - In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 3.932 million tons, a 22.32% month - on - month decrease; palm kernel oil production was 366,000 tons, a 23.9% month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.053 million tons, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease, and exports were 2.2 million tons, a 36.65% month - on - month sharp decline [4] - The implementation of the EU's Zero Deforestation Act was postponed by one year. Large operators and traders must comply from December 30, 2026, and small and micro - enterprises from June 30, 2027, which boosted palm oil prices [4] - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The US government is considering postponing the proposed cut in import biofuel subsidies by one to two years [4] 3.2 Fundamental Observation 3.2.1 Supply - No new information on supply other than production data in the market review section 3.2.2 Demand - As of November 28, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 8,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons, with domestic demand mainly for rigid needs. The weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 75,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,500 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [7] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1788 million tons, a 0.09% week - on - week decrease, still under pressure; the rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a 3.13% week - on - week decrease [8] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - As of November 28, the CIF price of Malaysian - produced palm oil was $1,051 per ton; the import cost was 8,884 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 136 yuan per ton [9] 3.2.5 Purchase and Production - From November 22 - 28, 2025, there were no new palm oil purchases or cancellations in China. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 220.08 tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,400 tons, and domestic soybean supply was relatively abundant. The production of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons as of November 28, and the crushing situation in December is to be observed after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds [10] 3.3 Conclusion - Palm oil: Recent increased precipitation and floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about production and transportation. The postponement of the European Zero Forest Act has boosted palm oil prices. However, weak exports and potential inventory increases may suppress prices. In China, inventory is slightly down but still at a relatively high level, with short - term volatile rebounds expected. Indonesia plans to lower palm oil export taxes in December [12] - Soybean oil: China continues to purchase US soybeans, and the termination of import licenses for 5 Brazilian companies has supported the cost. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are high but decreasing, and soybean oil inventory is slightly down but still under pressure. Exports increased significantly in October. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada, and the relationship between the two countries has not progressed. Domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, oil mills are shut down, rapeseed oil production is 0, and inventory is continuously decreasing. After the arrival of Australian rapeseeds, attention should be paid to customs clearance and crushing, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] 3.4 Spot Prices - As of November 28, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8,530 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan per ton; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan per ton; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,070 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton [14] 3.5 Malaysia's Palm Oil Data (October) - Production: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 2.044 million tons, a 11.02% month - on - month increase. The production in the Malay Peninsula, Sarawak, and Sabah all increased [16] - Inventory: In October, the inventory was 2.46 million tons, a 4.44% month - on - month increase, and it was at a high level compared to the same period last year [17] - Exports: In October, the export volume was 1.6929 million tons, a 18.58% month - on - month increase [20] - Consumption: Malaysia's domestic consumption was 282,400 tons, a 15.58% month - on - month decrease, falling back to the normal range [21] 3.6 India's Palm Oil Import (October) - India imported 602,300 tons of palm oil in October 2025, a 27% month - on - month decrease of 226,600 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [24] 3.7 China's Palm Oil Data - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease. In October, the import volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons [27] - In October, palm oil consumption was 228,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,200 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [29] - As of November 28, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 171 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase (the specific increase amount is missing in the text) [32] 3.8 China's Soybean Oil Data - As of November 28, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,384 tons, and it was still at a high level compared to the same period last year [34] - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.1788 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110 tons, still under pressure [35] - In October, the soybean oil export volume was 70,900 tons, a 36.45% month - on - month increase [36] 3.9 China's Rapeseed Oil Data - As of November 28, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,800 tons, and the inventory was accelerating its decline [38]

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Fats: Significant Increase in Malaysian Palm Oil Production in the First 20 Days of October, Oils and Fats May Oscillate Weakly in the Short Term" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the context of expected continued inventory accumulation at the origin and the postponement of the US biodiesel policy announcement, it is expected that oils and fats will mainly oscillate weakly in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: As of October 18, Brazil had completed 21.7% of soybean sowing, higher than 17.6% in the same period last year. Favorable rainfall in the central - western region of Brazil in the next two weeks is beneficial for sowing. The Sino - US trade relationship is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the trade negotiation progress at the end of this month [3] - **Palm Oil**: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month - on - month, while export growth decreased. It is expected to continue inventory accumulation in October, which is different from the previous expectation of inventory reduction starting in October, being negative for palm oil. After the Diwali festival in October, India's import demand for oils decreased, leading to a worse export outlook. Some Indonesian palm oil producers have reduced fertilizer use and maintenance, and the subsequent impact of this measure needs attention [3] - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are expectations of negotiations between China and Canada, which is negative for rapeseed oil. The Sino - Canadian trade relationship is still uncertain, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and rapeseed oil from other regions. Additionally, the progress of Indonesia's B50 and US biodiesel policies should be monitored [3] Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Unilateral**: The pressure level for palm oil 01 is recommended to refer to 9200 - 9400, and for soybean oil 01, it is 8300 - 8400. For options, it is advisable to buy put options on palm oil at low volatility [5] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see for now [5] - **Outlook**: Key points to watch include national biodiesel policies, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices [5] Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, palm oil prices dropped significantly due to a substantial increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 20 days of October [14] - The soybean - palm oil spread, rapeseed - palm oil spread, and rapeseed - soybean oil spread all oscillated widely. It is recommended to wait and see for now [17] Supply Side - **Malaysian Palm Oil Monthly Data**: In September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased significantly to 2.361 million tons, much higher than expected. Production decreased slightly, but the decline was less than market expectations. Exports increased month - on - month to 1.4276 million tons, in line with market expectations. Apparent consumption was 333,400 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. This report is negative for the market [30] - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil**: Data on China's imported soybean port inventory, soybean oil import volume, soybean import volume, and imported soybean crushing volume are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [33][34][36] - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Data on China's imported rapeseed port inventory, rapeseed oil import volume, rapeseed import volume, and imported rapeseed crushing volume are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [43][44][46] - **Domestic Palm Oil**: Data on China's palm oil import volume are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [50] Demand Side - Data on the trading volume of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the total trading volume of the three major oils are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [54][56][58][60] Inventory - As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons (3.25%) from the previous week and an increase of 94,000 tons (8.32%) year - on - year. The commercial inventory of palm oil was 575,700 tons, an increase of 28,100 tons (5.13%) from the previous week and an increase of 59,800 tons (11.59%) compared to the same period last year [64] - As of October 17, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 6,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed oil inventory was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, and the unexecuted contracts were 30,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous week [67] Disk Import Profit - As of October 24, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the November shipment was - 236 yuan/ton [71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The palm oil market lacks strong upward drivers from the producing regions. There are concerns about Indonesia's inventory accumulation, and the market may continue to fluctuate until the end of the year. Further price movements depend on the B50 story and production issues [2][4][5] - The soybean oil market is affected by factors such as the SRE allocation, RVO policy, and Sino - US trade relations. The price mainly follows the trends of crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. The opening of the market next week is expected to be volatile due to Trump's tariff increase on China [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: During the long holiday, the B50 news from Indonesia stimulated a rebound in the palm oil market, but there was no actual tightening signal in the supply side of the producing regions. The MPOB report showed an unexpected inventory build - up, halting the upward trend. The palm oil 01 contract rose 2.28% last week [1] - Soybean oil: During the holiday, US soybeans and US soybean oil showed a slight rebound. With the accelerating progress of US soybean harvesting and Brazilian sowing, soybean oil lacked an independent driver and mainly fluctuated with the oil and fat sector. The soybean oil 01 contract rose 1.99% last week. Trump's tough stance on China's trade on Friday night may affect the market opening next week [1] This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - Producing regions: The MPOB report confirmed the inventory pressure in Malaysia in September, and the narrowing spread between UCO FOB and CPO FOB in Malaysia since September indicated a return to normal domestic consumption. However, the potential export tax on UCO and POME in Malaysia has an uncertain impact. In Indonesia, the inventory is expected to be in the range of 200 - 300 million tons in the third quarter, and the annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. The narrowing Indo - Malaysian price spread and concerns about Indonesia's inventory accumulation make it difficult to find strong short - term drivers [2] - Consumption regions: The import profit of crude sunflower oil in India is better than that of CPO, and there is no strong expectation for India's future demand. The European HVO profit is high, but relying solely on European biodiesel demand to be bullish on the oil market is a pessimistic view. The market may continue to fluctuate until the end of the year, and the price movement depends on the B50 story and production issues [2][4][5] Soybean oil - International market: The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector has declined, and there is a high pressure of inventory build - up by the end of the year. The implementation of relevant policies may be postponed to next year, and the price mainly follows the trends of crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices [2][4] - Domestic market: The export demand may lead to continuous inventory reduction in the domestic soybean oil market until March next year. The market is affected by Sino - US trade relations, and the opening next week is expected to be volatile [4][5] Basic Market Data of Futures - Palm oil main contract: The opening price was 9,452 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,438 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.70%. The trading volume was 1,242,800 lots, and the open interest increased by 35,596 lots [7] - Soybean oil main contract: The opening price was 8,212 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,302 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.32%. The trading volume was 842,968 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,070 lots [7] - Other data: Included price differences such as the vegetable - soybean 01 spread, soybean - palm 01 spread, and inventory data of different oils [7] Core Fundamental Data of Oils - Malaysia: The palm oil production in Malaysia may enter the off - season earlier, and the inventory in September may reach an inflection point. The export volume from October 1 - 10 was 523,602 tons, a 9.86% increase compared to the same period last month [9][10][11] - Indonesia: The inventory in Indonesia is expected to recover to last year's level after the second quarter, and the Indo - Malaysian price spread is rapidly declining [11] - Other aspects: Included data on fruit bunch prices in North Sumatra, refining profits in Indonesia, POGO spreads, rainfall in Malaysia and Indonesia, import profits and CNF spreads in India, and EU's import volume of palm oil and four major oils [11][12][13]

Group 1 - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 9438.00 CNY/ton and a maximum of 9446.00 CNY, while the lowest point reached 9276.00 CNY, resulting in a decline of 2.03% [1] - Factors affecting palm oil prices include rising domestic inventories in China and India, which negatively impact export demand, but Indian pre-festival stockpiling supports demand [1] - Indonesia's crackdown on illegal palm oil plantations has led to the confiscation of 3.1 million hectares, raising concerns about future palm oil production due to operational inefficiencies during the transition of management rights [1] Group 2 - The oilseed market is under pressure from falling crude oil prices, while end-users are increasing purchases at lower prices, leading to higher transaction volumes [2] - Uncertainties surrounding soybean and canola prices due to U.S.-China negotiations and Australian canola imports are negatively impacting palm oil prices, suggesting a short-term bearish outlook for palm oil [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July 2025, the domestic oil market showed a steady - upward trend. The soybean oil futures rose 2.61% month - on - month, rapeseed oil futures rose 1.01% month - on - month, and palm oil futures rose 6.84% month - on - month. Externally, CBOT soybean futures fell 3.22% month - on - month, and Malaysian palm oil futures rose over 5.98% month - on - month [3]. - Looking ahead, soybean oil may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and its price breakthrough depends on weather and trade negotiations. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term price needs to beware of policy risks. Palm oil prices may follow the external market and fluctuate strongly [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Market**: In July, domestic soybean oil had cumulative inventory and weak summer consumption, but import policy uncertainty and future destocking expectations led to a 2.61% monthly increase in futures. Rapeseed oil had an oversupply situation, but price support from Sino - Canadian trade disputes led to a 1.01% monthly increase in futures with range - bound fluctuations. Palm oil had inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand, but international cost drive led to a 6.84% monthly increase in futures [3]. - **External Market**: In July, CBOT soybean futures declined 3.22% month - on - month due to good weather and reduced Chinese demand, but the US biodiesel policy limited the decline. Malaysian palm oil futures rose over 5.98% month - on - month, with a price pull - back in the second half of the month due to increased production and decreased exports [3]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **Soybean Oil**: In August, abnormal weather may change the US soybean yield forecast. The US biodiesel policy and Indonesia's B40 plan may tighten the global vegetable oil supply - demand balance. With reduced soybean arrivals and holiday stocking, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic market currently has an oversupply situation, but with reduced coastal rapeseed inventory and oil mill production, supply may tighten in the future. Short - term prices may fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term prices need to beware of policy risks related to Sino - Canadian trade [9]. - **Palm Oil**: If the MPOB report confirms excessive inventory accumulation in July, it may suppress Malaysian palm oil prices, but Indonesia's production reduction and export tax increase provide a bottom support. The US 45Z clause and Indonesia's B50 test may boost consumption. With high domestic import costs and low arrival expectations in August, prices may follow the external market and fluctuate strongly [10]. 3.3 Registered Warehouse Receipt Volume - The number of soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased from 18,882 last month to 13,709 this month, a decrease of 5,173. The number of palm oil warehouse receipts increased from 470 last month to 570 this month, an increase of 100. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts increased from 100 last month to 3,487 this month, an increase of 3,387 [15]. 3.4 Basis Trends of Three Major Oils - The soybean oil basis decreased from 218 last month to 178 this month, a decrease of 40. The palm oil basis decreased from 214 last month to 70 this month, a decrease of 144. The rapeseed oil basis decreased from 134 last month to 90 this month, a decrease of 44 [20]. 3.5 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report - **Global Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils**: In the 2025/26 period, global oilseed production and ending inventory are expected to increase, and trade volume is expected to slightly decrease, indicating a loose supply expectation. Global vegetable oil production is basically the same as the previous forecast, trade volume is decreased, consumption is slightly increased, and the supply - demand expectation is tightened [29]. - **Global Three Major Oils Consumption**: In 2025/26, the consumption of the three major oils for biodiesel is expected to be 54,470 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.67%. The edible consumption is expected to be 127,556 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.21%, with a slower growth rate than the previous year [33]. - **Global Soybean**: In 2025/26, global soybean production is expected to increase by 864 thousand tons, mainly due to increased production in Ukraine. The crushing volume is expected to increase by 1,120 thousand tons, mainly due to increased US demand, and the export volume is expected to decrease [36]. - **Global Rapeseed**: In 2025/26, global rapeseed production is expected to be 8,953.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 388.7 thousand tons. The crushing volume is expected to decrease by 34.6 thousand tons, mainly due to decreased Canadian demand. The ending inventory is expected to be 925.9 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.44% [56]. - **Global Palm Oil**: In 2025/26, global palm oil production is expected to be 8,073.6 thousand tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a year - on - year increase of 2.27%. The ending inventory is expected to be 1,503.8 thousand tons, a slight decrease from the previous forecast and a year - on - year increase of 0.33% [69]. 3.6 Export and Production Data - **US Soybean**: As of the 47th week of the 2024/25 season, the weekly export volume was 500 thousand tons, and the cumulative export volume was 47.27 million tons, a 11.82% year - on - year increase. Exports to China were 0 tons in the week, and the cumulative exports to China were 22.48 million tons, a 5.97% year - on - year decrease. In June 2025, the US soybean crushing volume increased 5.76% year - on - year, and the ending inventory of soybean oil decreased 15.78% year - on - year [39][42][46]. - **Brazilian Soybean**: In June 2025, the export volume was 13.48 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 67.74 million tons, a 2.05% year - on - year increase. The estimated export volume in July was 12.055 million tons [50]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: As of the 51st week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the weekly export volume was 55.1 thousand tons, and the cumulative export volume was 9.4922 million tons, a 39.21% year - on - year increase. The weekly commercial inventory was 1.2014 million tons, a 24.83% year - on - year decrease. As of June 2025, the cumulative crushing volume from January to June increased 1.36% year - on - year, but the monthly crushing volume decreased 10.27% year - on - year [61][63]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In June 2025, the production volume increased 4.77% year - on - year, the export volume increased 4.05% year - on - year, and the inventory increased 10.89% year - on - year [74]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In May 2025, the export volume was 2.66 million tons, and the inventory was 2.92 million tons, lower than the previous year [77]. - **Indian Vegetable Oil**: In June 2025, the import volume was 155 thousand tons, and the cumulative import volume in the 2024/25 season was 9.43 million tons, a decrease from the previous year. The inventory was 1.57 million tons, lower than the previous year [80]. 3.7 Chinese Import and Production Data - **Import**: In June 2025, soybean imports increased 10.35% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to June increased 1.83% year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased 69.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to June decreased 21.29% year - on - year. Rapeseed oil imports decreased 23.75% year - on - year, but the cumulative imports from January to June increased 26.34% year - on - year. Palm oil imports increased 10.99% year - on - year, but the cumulative imports from January to June decreased 11.82% year - on - year [84][88][90][93]. - **Production**: As of the 30th week of 2025, major soybean oil mills had similar soybean and soybean oil inventories compared to the previous year, with a slight decrease in the startup rate. The import soybean spot crushing profit increased. Coastal rapeseed oil mills had reduced rapeseed inventory but increased rapeseed oil inventory, with a slight decrease in the startup rate and increased import rapeseed spot crushing profit. The national key area palm oil inventory increased, and the import profit decreased [98][103][105].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8984 | 8936 | 8980 | 8828 | 8946 | -38 | -0.42% | 604377 | 449955 | -6493 | | P2601 | 8972 | 8940 | 8962 | 8814 | 8932 | -40 | -0.45% | 126478 | 172241 | -2218 | | Y2509 | 8160 | 8160 | 8160 | 8062 | 8120 | -40 | -0.49% | 281245 | 490324 | -14314 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8104 | 8120 | 8022 | 8076 | -38 | -0.47% | 104689 | 384599 | 3856 | | OI2509 | 9441 | 9457 | 9467 | 9330 | 9406 | -35 | -0.37% | 258838 | 201338 | -9445 | | OI2601 | 9388 | 9409 | 9413 | 9280 | 9357 | -31 | -0.33% | 64240 | 111834 | 3489 | [7] 1.2 Basis Price - East China Rapeseed Oil Trader Quotes: 7 - 8 months: OI2509 + 90; 9 - 10 months: OI2509 + 140 for third - grade rapeseed oil; 7 months: OI2509 + 170; 8 months: OI2509 + 190 for first - grade rapeseed oil. - East China Soybean Oil Basis Price: Spot soybean oil: Y2509 + 90; 8 - 9 months: Y2509 + 160; 10 - 1 months: Y2601 + 230. - East China Spot 24 - degree Palm Oil: P09 + 50 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation. [7] 1.3 Oil and Fat Comments - Palm oil is undergoing high - level adjustments, mainly due to the drag of Malaysian palm oil trends and concerns about continuous growth in port inventories. From July 1 to 25, palm oil exports decreased by 9.2% - 15.2% month - on - month, leading to concerns about inventory backlog. The production increase and weak demand are pressuring palm oil prices. - Rapeseed oil is affected by both sufficient domestic supply and policies, with a weak basis. Attention should be paid to far - month ship purchases. - Soybean oil continues to trade in the range of 7800 - 8200. Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Its price is mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans. - The basis of the three major domestic oils in the spot market has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to appropriately buy far - month basis. The oils are expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with recent rotation of varieties for speculation. Risk control should be noted. [8] 2. Industry News - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. In May, Indonesia exported 2.66 million tons of palm oil (including refined products), a nearly 50% month - on - month increase. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that from July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.24% month - on - month. Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 18.95% month - on - month, while in Sabah it decreased by 0.14% month - on - month, in Sarawak it increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and in East Malaysia it increased by 0.01% month - on - month. [9] 3. Data Overview - AmSpec Agri data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from July 1 - 25, 2025, were 896,484 tons, a 15.2% decrease compared to the same period in June. ITS data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to June 1 - 25. - The Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) data showed that from July 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.03% month - on - month and oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.16% month - on - month. - The European Commission data showed that as of July 20, EU's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season (starting July 1) were 519,609 tons, a 32% year - on - year decrease. As of July 20, EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended, and it has shown weaker performance than soybean and palm oil recently due to the potential resumption of China - Australia trade. The current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage, and factors such as weather, trade, and domestic supply and demand affect its price [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, short - term participation is also recommended, and attention should be paid to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. The price of rapeseed meal fluctuates greatly in the short term, influenced by factors like US soybean conditions, domestic supply and demand, and trade agreements [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Short - term participation [8] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 09 contract was 9457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 129 yuan/ton from the previous week [9] - Market Outlook: Canadian rapeseed growth is weather - sensitive. The potential resumption of China - Australia rapeseed trade, the situation of palm oil, and domestic supply - demand conditions all impact the price. Although there are some bearish factors, the reduction in supply pressure and oil mill output also provide support [9] Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Short - term participation, focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [11] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 09 contract was 2675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous week [12] - Market Outlook: US soybean conditions, domestic supply - demand, and trade agreements affect the price. Although there are bearish factors, the reduction in short - term supply and seasonal demand increase provide support, while also facing substitution pressure [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 210,783 lots, a decrease of 36,060 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell, with a total position of 483,508 lots, a decrease of 54,942 lots from the previous week [17] - The net long positions of the top 20 in rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures both decreased this week [23] Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, showing a decline from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 83 yuan/ton [38] - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2520 yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 155 yuan/ton [44] Spread and Ratio - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was + 56 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was + 270 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [50] - The ratio of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.535, and the ratio of the average spot prices was 3.786 [53] - The 09 contract spread of rapeseed - soybean oil was 1313 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed - palm oil was 521 yuan/ton, both narrowing this week [62] - The 09 contract spread of soybean - rapeseed meal was 346 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday was 290 yuan/ton [68] 3.3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of July 18, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 200,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in June, July, and August 2025 were 260,000, 130,000, and 485,000 tons respectively. The import rapeseed spot crushing profit was + 384 yuan/ton as of July 24. The crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal main oil mills in the 29th week of 2025 was 53,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 12.96%. In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a significant year - on - year and month - on - month decrease [74][78][82][86] Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 812,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week. In June 2025, the import volume of rapeseed oil was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase [90] - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.404 million tons, and as of May 31, the catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 128,000 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons from last week [94][98] Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 11,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from last week. In June 2025, the import volume of rapeseed meal was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase [102][106] - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2.7621 million tons [110] 3.4. Options Market Analysis - As of July 25, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 23.32%, a 2.63% increase from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113]