油脂月报（2025年7月） 进口前景不明 油脂稳中有涨 冯子悦 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 一 、行情回顾 行情回顾 7月份国内油脂市场整体稳中有升。豆油库存持续累积，夏季消费疲软，但三四季度进口政策的不确定性令市场对后期大豆供应愈发 担忧，北方"还储"和南方出口增强了未来降库预期，7月份豆油期货月线收涨2.61%。菜油供大于求格局显著，国产油菜籽收购价低迷， 中加贸易博弈仍对价格形成支撑，7月菜油期货维持区间震荡，月线小幅收涨1.01%。棕榈油库存累积，下游需求疲软，期价受国际成本 带动冲高， 7月棕榈油期货月线收涨6.84%。 外盘方面，7月CBOT大豆期货震荡走低，月线收跌3.22%，中西部天气状况转好强化了丰产预期，中国减少豆粕用量的政策影响了需 求预期，但美国生柴政策预期将大幅提振其国内需求，大幅提振了美豆油价格并限制了美豆跌幅；国际棕榈油方面，7月上旬至中旬，受 宏观情绪及生物柴油政策利好推动，马棕油一度突破4300林吉特/吨，但下旬因产量回升和出口下滑，马棕价格小幅回落，7月马棕油期 货收涨超5.98%。 数据来源：Wind、金石期货研究所 后市展望 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8984 | 8936 | 8980 | 8828 | 8946 | -38 | -0.42% | 604377 | 449955 | -6493 | | P2601 | 8972 | 8940 | 8962 | 8814 | 8932 | -40 | -0.45% | 126478 | 172241 | -2218 | | Y2509 | 8160 | 8160 | 8160 | 8062 | 8120 | -40 | -0.49% | 281245 | 490324 | -14314 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8104 | 8120 | 8022 | 8076 | -38 | -0.47% | 104689 | 384599 | 3856 | | OI2509 | 9441 | 9457 | 9467 | 9330 | 9406 | -35 | -0.37% | 258838 | 201338 | -9445 | | OI2601 | 9388 | 9409 | 9413 | 9280 | 9357 | -31 | -0.33% | 64240 | 111834 | 3489 | [7] 1.2 Basis Price - East China Rapeseed Oil Trader Quotes: 7 - 8 months: OI2509 + 90; 9 - 10 months: OI2509 + 140 for third - grade rapeseed oil; 7 months: OI2509 + 170; 8 months: OI2509 + 190 for first - grade rapeseed oil. - East China Soybean Oil Basis Price: Spot soybean oil: Y2509 + 90; 8 - 9 months: Y2509 + 160; 10 - 1 months: Y2601 + 230. - East China Spot 24 - degree Palm Oil: P09 + 50 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation. [7] 1.3 Oil and Fat Comments - Palm oil is undergoing high - level adjustments, mainly due to the drag of Malaysian palm oil trends and concerns about continuous growth in port inventories. From July 1 to 25, palm oil exports decreased by 9.2% - 15.2% month - on - month, leading to concerns about inventory backlog. The production increase and weak demand are pressuring palm oil prices. - Rapeseed oil is affected by both sufficient domestic supply and policies, with a weak basis. Attention should be paid to far - month ship purchases. - Soybean oil continues to trade in the range of 7800 - 8200. Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Its price is mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans. - The basis of the three major domestic oils in the spot market has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to appropriately buy far - month basis. The oils are expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with recent rotation of varieties for speculation. Risk control should be noted. [8] 2. Industry News - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. In May, Indonesia exported 2.66 million tons of palm oil (including refined products), a nearly 50% month - on - month increase. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that from July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.24% month - on - month. Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 18.95% month - on - month, while in Sabah it decreased by 0.14% month - on - month, in Sarawak it increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and in East Malaysia it increased by 0.01% month - on - month. [9] 3. Data Overview - AmSpec Agri data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from July 1 - 25, 2025, were 896,484 tons, a 15.2% decrease compared to the same period in June. ITS data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to June 1 - 25. - The Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) data showed that from July 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.03% month - on - month and oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.16% month - on - month. - The European Commission data showed that as of July 20, EU's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season (starting July 1) were 519,609 tons, a 32% year - on - year decrease. As of July 20, EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. [16]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.25」 菜籽类市场周报 中澳贸易有望恢复 菜油表现弱于豆棕 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： 取 更 多 资 讯 Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收跌，09合约收盘价9457元/吨，较前一周-129元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：现阶段加菜籽生长进入"天气主导"阶段。本周加拿大平原地区的炎热天气减少，且 出现有利降雨，对市场带来一定压力。且据路透社7月16日报道，澳大利亚即将与我国达成协议， 允许澳大利亚供应商试验性地向中国运送油菜籽货物，中澳之间的油菜籽贸易有望得到恢复。其 它方面，高频数据显示，7月1-20日马棕产量增加而出口有所下滑，牵制棕榈油价格。不过，印尼 出口大幅增加，且美国和印尼生柴方面消息利多，提振油脂市场。国内方面，油脂消费淡季，国 内植物油供给较为宽松，且菜油油厂库存压力持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic edible oils oscillated upwards driven by the overall strength of commodities. In the short - term, domestic edible oils may continue to oscillate strongly, but in the medium - to - long - term, the market remains in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [8][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils oscillated upwards. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 2.18% to close at 8,160 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 3.25% to close at 8,964 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.56% to close at 9,586 yuan/ton [5][28]. - In August, Malaysia's reference price for crude palm oil was 3,864.12 ringgit/ton (about 910.28 US dollars), up significantly from July, and the export tax will increase from 8.5% in July to 9%. The Malaysian palm oil rose 3.38% [6][28]. - In the 2024/25 season, Argentina's soybean production reached 49.9 million tons, a 3.5% increase from the previous year, and the planting area expanded by 7.7%. The US soybean rose 2.73% this week [7][29]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,300 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [9]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,670 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [11]. 3.3 Other Data - As of July 11, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 37,000 tons to 1.138 million tons. On July 16, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 21,000 tons to 545,000 tons [15]. - As of July 10, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,475,410 tons [18]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 140 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [19]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 6 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 84 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils oscillated upwards. The futures prices of edible oils mostly follow external and capital fluctuations. Currently, the producing areas are in the seasonal production - increasing season, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory is likely to increase. However, Indonesia's demand for biodiesel is continuously improving, and the increase in palm oil inventory at a low level is expected to be slow. The soybean oil inventory is accumulating rapidly, and there is still room for further accumulation [28][29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, domestic oil prices fluctuated and consolidated. The palm oil in the producing areas is still in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, but the production in Malaysia decreased slightly in June, slowing down the inventory - building speed and the supply - demand pressure is not significant. The inventory of soybean oil is building up rapidly with average consumption and is expected to continue to increase. Rapeseed oil has a high current inventory, but the future supply decline is relatively clear and will enter the de - stocking cycle. Overall, the domestic oil inventory level still has room to rise. As oils are in the off - season of consumption and the downstream market mainly replenishes goods based on rigid demand, it is expected that the domestic oil futures prices will likely fluctuate and consolidate in the near future [8][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, oil futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The soybean oil Y2509 contract rose 0.53% to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, the palm oil P2509 contract rose 2.48% to close at 8,682 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil OI2509 contract fell 1.75% to close at 9,439 yuan/ton [5][27]. - In June, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.692 million tons, exports were 1.2594 million tons, and inventory was 2.03 million tons. Exports were significantly lower than expected, and inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.78% [6][27]. - For the 2025/26 season, the US soybean production was lowered by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels, while the soybean yield per acre remained unchanged at 52.5 bushels. US soybean crushing was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels due to the increased demand for soybean oil in the bio - fuel industry. US soybean exports were lowered by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels due to domestic demand growth and strong exports from Argentina and Ukraine. The US soybean ending inventory was raised by 15 million bushels to 310 million bushels. US soybeans fell 3.89% this week [7][28]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,190 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [9]. - As of July 10, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [11]. 3.3 Other Data - As of July 4, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 80,000 tons to 1.141 million tons. On July 9, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 524,000 tons [14]. - As of July 10, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,475,410 tons [17]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 204 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [18]. - As of July 10, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 32 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [19]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 141 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [21]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - The content in this part is basically the same as the abstract and the core view, emphasizing the price trends of different oils, the production, export, and inventory situations of palm oil in Malaysia, and the adjustments to US soybean production, crushing, exports, and ending inventory. It also reiterates the future trends of domestic oil inventories and price expectations [27][28].

Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic three major oils are dragged down by international oil prices due to the mitigation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August. The decline in the month-on-month growth of Malaysia's export data from June 1 - 30 is negative for palm oil prices. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, it is the off - season for domestic oil consumption, oil inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse spreads being the main trend. Attention should be paid to the upcoming quarterly grain inventory report and crop planting area report [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: first - grade soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509+220, October - January Y2601 + 280. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 240 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7] - **Market Analysis**: The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic oils are affected by international oil prices. The mitigation of Middle East geopolitical risks and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August lead to a decline. Malaysia's export data decline in month - on - month growth is negative for palm oil. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable, with increasing inventories and pressured basis during the consumption off - season. The price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, and reverse spreads are the main trend. Attention should be paid to relevant reports [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Policy**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in July, reducing the export tax to 8.5% at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From June 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 0.25% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month - on - month [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase from May. According to AmSpec, the exports in June were 1,286,461 tons, a 4.5% increase from May [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][19][20][25][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the Middle East geopolitical conflict shows signs of expansion, with crude oil prices rising continuously. In the short term, edible oils may follow the upward trend of crude oil and US biodiesel, but the upward momentum is weakening. Attention should be paid to Iran's attitude [6][26]. - Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase India's purchases. Continued attention should be paid to the purchasing situations of China and India. Domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil futures market is still strong, with significant price increases [6][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline. SPPOMA estimates that the production in the first 15 days of June decreased by 4%, with the decline narrowing compared to the 17% decrease in the first 10 days. ITS estimates that the exports in the first 20 days of June increased by 14% month - on - month, with the increase rate declining compared to the 26% increase in the first 15 days. It is expected that the inventory in June will be around 2 million tons, showing little change compared to May [10]. - Indonesia may raise the export reference price to around $875 in July, up from $856 in June, but the TAX is expected to remain unchanged, and the levy will increase slightly [10]. 3.2 Domestic Palm Oil - As of June 13, 2025 (Week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 409,600 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 9.93%. The inventory is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes are stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion has narrowed. There were sporadic purchases this week, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. In May, China imported 210,000 tons of palm oil, and the cumulative import from January to May was only 990,000 tons, at a historical low. The apparent consumption in May was basically 210,000 tons, also at a historical low [15]. - The spot market has changed little. The cumulative spot trading volume of palm oil this week was only more than 2,000 tons, significantly less than the 13,000 tons of the previous week. Recently, India has carried out cargo cancellation, but the impact on the futures market is limited. Currently, palm oil shows a fluctuating upward trend due to the Middle East geopolitical situation and US biodiesel policies, but the upward momentum weakens after a rapid increase. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, and caution should be exercised against a potential decline from high levels [15]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 847,000 tons, an increase of 34,300 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 4.22%. It is at a relatively neutral to slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis has declined, with the East China region quoting at 09 + 230. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.02%, slightly higher than the previous week [18]. - Currently, soybean oil has a good cost - performance ratio, and the spot trading volume has improved. The cumulative spot trading volume of soybean oil this week was about 110,000 tons, slightly less than the 107,000 tons of the previous week, but at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel situation, the futures market of edible oils has generally risen. Fundamentally, domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. In the short term, edible oils are expected to be relatively strong, but the upward momentum is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels [18]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 71,500 tons, with an operating rate of 19.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 769,000 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous week, still at a historical high. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil is around $1,050, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,400. In May, China imported 340,000 tons of rapeseed, but only 110,000 tons of rapeseed oil, at a relatively low level in the same period of history [23]. - The spot market is booming. The spot trading volume of rapeseed oil this week was 47,000 tons, slightly lower than the 50,000 tons of the previous week, but at a historical high in the same period. The domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable with a slight increase, with the three - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi quoting at 09 + 70. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists. The international relations and the overall trend of edible oils affect the repeated fluctuations of rapeseed oil, and there are many policy - related market changes. Risk management should be carried out [23]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Affected by geopolitical and other factors, edible oils have risen significantly. Continued attention should be paid to the Middle East situation. In the short term, the upward momentum of edible oils is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. (The views are for reference only and not for trading purposes) [28]

棕榈油月报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 增产周期格局下 棕榈油或震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 | 一、油脂市场行情回顾 4 | | --- | | 1.1 油脂市场走势 4 | | 二、基本面分析 6 | | 2.1 MPOB 报告 6 | | 2.2 马棕产量和出口 7 | | 2.3 印度尼西亚情况 8 | | 2.4 印度植物油进口 9 | | 2.5 中国油脂进口 10 | | 2.6 国内油脂库存 12 | | 三、总结与后市展望 13 | 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112 ...