1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the edible oil sector, due to the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, external macro - risks are uncontrollable, so it is advisable to conservatively observe the market and engage in intraday trading. For the two - meal sector, although the rise in US soybeans drives cost increases and domestic import policies tighten, it is not recommended to chase the upward trend significantly, and existing long positions should be gradually reduced [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock (Three Oils) 3.1.1 Market Review - On February 12th, before the Spring Festival holiday, the exchange raised margins, more investors left the market, and the weakening of the Malaysian market dragged down the market. The Dalian palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of various oil contracts decreased to varying degrees, and the trading volume also changed [1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On February 12th, the settlement price of the active March crude oil futures contract on NYMEX was $62.84 per barrel, down $1.79 or 2.77%. US crude inventories increased by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week. The IEA stated that this year's global oil demand growth rate will be lower than expected [1]. - The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1]. - The US government is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to impose penalties on imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons [1]. - The January supply - demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) was generally positive. Malaysia's palm oil imports, production, and inventory decreased, while exports increased [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the EIA's downward adjustment of global crude oil demand led to a 3% drop in international crude oil prices. However, multiple positive factors such as the US - India trade agreement, potential increases in US soybean and soybean oil exports to India, and the improvement of domestic biodiesel policies in the US supported the US soybean oil to maintain a good upward trend. The Malaysian palm oil market was generally positive, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market was cautious and the overall trend was flat. For domestic soybean oil, factory production was high in the recent two weeks, and the reduction in inventory was limited. The spot market was basically over before the festival, and the basis quote was mainly stable. After the festival, the basis quote would be supported during the replenishment period but would face pressure later. For palm oil, the fundamentals were positive, but the expected high inventory put pressure on the market. For rapeseed oil, there was a lack of new topics in the market, and it was expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern before the festival [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is advisable to conservatively observe the market and engage in intraday trading before the Spring Festival. The report provides support and pressure levels for various contracts [2]. - Arbitrage trading: None at present [2]. 3.2 Two Meals (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On February 12th, driven by the rise in the external market, short basis and long futures positions, the two - meal market continued to rebound. The closing prices of various contracts increased to varying degrees, and the trading volume also changed [2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The February USDA soybean supply - demand report was generally bearish, slightly increasing Brazil's production and global soybean inventory. However, the increase in US soybean exports pushed up the US soybean futures price. The report also provided data on the US, Brazil, and Argentina's soybean production, exports, and inventory [3]. - As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory decreased, while domestic soybean meal inventory and contract volume increased. Domestic imported rapeseed inventory decreased, and imported rapeseed meal inventory and contract volume increased [3]. - The national grain trading center's soybean auction on January 13th had a 100% transaction rate [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the improved trade prospects of US soybeans pushed up the US soybean futures price. For domestic soybean meal, as the Spring Festival approached, some institutions adjusted their positions for risk - avoidance reasons. The market showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and there was a short - term rebound. The spot price of the oil refinery increased slightly, and the market was light. For rapeseed meal, domestic oil refineries were actively buying rapeseed in the far - month. Considering the expected increase in imports and the end of pre - festival stocking, the domestic two - meal market was expected to have a weak and narrow - range shock pattern before the festival and was likely to face downward pressure after the festival [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - It is not recommended to chase the upward trend significantly, and existing long positions should be gradually reduced. The report provides support and pressure levels for various contracts. Arbitrage trading: None at present [4].

1. General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: February 12, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 2.1 Market Review | Contract | Pre-settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 8968 | 8910 | 8950 | 8886 | 8906 | -62 | -0.69% | 290733 | 417236 | -1350 | | P2609 | 8938 | 8880 | 8928 | 8866 | 8886 | -52 | -0.58% | 21418 | 99240 | -1640 | | Y2605 | 8114 | 8096 | 8122 | 8072 | 8110 | -4 | -0.05% | 191275 | 663315 | -7661 | | Y2609 | 8062 | 8046 | 8068 | 8022 | 8052 | -10 | -0.12% | 28286 | 211098 | 1055 | | OI605 | 9128 | 9090 | 9150 | 9072 | 9131 | 3 | 0.03% | 150623 | 260396 | -6443 | | OI609 | 9098 | 9073 | 9113 | 9046 | 9103 | 5 | 0.05% | 9247 | 38777 | -1973 | [7] 2.2 Basis Price - East China third-grade rapeseed oil: April - May 05+500, February - March: OI2605+620, March - April: OI2605+580 - East China market soybean oil basis price: First-grade soybean oil: Spot: Y05+380; Fixed price 8510 yuan/ton; Forward price: March: Y2605+370; March - April: Y2605+350; March - May: Y2605+310; April - May: Y2605+280; May - July: Y2605+230; June - September: Y2609+280; Third-grade soybean oil: 05+360; Degummed soybean oil: 05+250 - Guangzhou traders' palm oil quotes are stable: Dongguan 24-degree 05+30, February [7] 2.3 Market Analysis and Suggestions - The data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board shows that the palm oil inventory at the end of January was 2.815 million tons, a decrease of 7.72% from December, but the inventory is still at a seven-year high. Coupled with the negative impact of the decline in high-frequency export data in February, it is expected that Malaysian palm oil will fall below 4000 or even lower, and the Dalian palm oil will also weaken. Pay attention to the support around 8500. - The final RVO case in early March is crucial for the oil market. The proposed rules issued by the US Treasury Department have strengthened the market's optimistic expectations, but the estimated soybean output in Brazil is continuously increasing, and the harvesting pace is accelerating, which suppresses the upside space of the entire oil and oilseed sector. - The US Department of Agriculture expects the global rapeseed output in the 2025/26 season to reach 95.055 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.024 million tons. The pattern of rapeseed oil abundance in the international market remains unchanged. - Currently, the domestic and international oil markets lack new speculative themes, which have limited impact on futures prices. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there are very few market quotes, trading is light, and funds are continuously flowing out. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. [8] 3. Industry News - According to the data released by the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 10 was 451,340 tons, a decrease of 10.5% compared with the 504,400 tons exported from January 1 - 10. Among them, the export volume to China was 36,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with the same period last month. - The monthly report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) shows that the palm oil inventory at the end of January decreased by 7.72% from the previous month to 2.815 million tons. The output decreased by 13.78% from the previous month to 1.577 million tons; the export volume increased by 11.44% to 1.484 million tons. The market previously expected the inventory to be 2.91 million tons and the output to be 1.61 million tons. [11] 4. Data Overview 4.1 USDA Reports - The US Department of Agriculture's February oilseed report shows that the global palm oil output in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 80.716 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. The ending inventory is expected to be 15.297 million tons, an increase of 169,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. The export is expected to be 45.645 million tons, an increase of 357,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. - The USDA supply and demand report maintains the US soybean supply and demand data for the 2025/26 season unchanged, with the output at 4.262 billion bushels, a decrease of 112 million bushels or 2.56% compared with the 2024/25 season. The soybean crushing volume is 2.57 billion bushels, a year-on-year increase of 125 million bushels or 5.11%. The ending inventory also remains unchanged at 350 million bushels, an increase of 25 million bushels or 7.69% compared with the previous year. The farm average price remains unchanged at $10.20 per bushel, higher than the previous year's $10.00. - The USDA supply and demand report predicts that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season will be 428.18 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from the previous month's forecast of 425.68 million tons, and an increase of 1.03 million tons or 0.24% compared with the previous year. The crushing volume is increased by 1.6 million tons, from the previous month's forecast of 366.43 million tons to 368.03 million tons. The export expectation remains unchanged at 187.57 million tons. The ending inventory is increased to 125.51 million tons, 1.1 million tons higher than the previous month's forecast of 124.41 million tons, and 1.85 million tons or 1.50% higher than the 2024/25 season. The global soybean inventory-to-use ratio is 20.50%, higher than the previous month's forecast of 20.37%. [13] 4.2 Brazilian Soybean Exports - SECEX data shows that the export pace of Brazilian soybeans in the first week of February 2026 was lower than the same period last year. From February 1 - 6, the export volume of Brazilian soybeans was 1.184 million tons, compared with 6.428 million tons in February 2025. The average daily export volume so far in February is 236,712 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%. The average export price of soybeans so far in February is $419.7 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil had a short - term smooth upward window in Q1 after nearly two months of bottom - building. Before new negative news emerges, the bullish sentiment in Q1 is strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure at previous highs and the risk of decline due to the ebb of pre - holiday macro sentiment. Also, pay attention to the price correction after Ramadan. If a rapid pressure - release period starts in late March, it may bottom out again and enter a new stable and upward stage [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybean oil will reach a value potential of 56 - 60 cents as policies are gradually implemented, but fluctuations caused by the EPA's inconsistent news should be noted. Currently, there is a lack of hot topics for soybean - related speculation in South America in February. Unilateral soybean oil is temporarily adjusted with palm oil and international oil prices, and beware of the spot sentiment brought by the post - holiday stocking boom [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm oil: The previous rise was mainly driven by external sentiment and pre - holiday stocking themes. With the ebb of the macro situation and geopolitical easing, palm oil faced resistance at the previous high and fell. The palm oil 05 contract dropped 2.74% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: There was a lack of South American weather speculation. Even though there was strong news of Sino - US purchases, the upward drive for US soybeans was limited. It mainly adjusted with the oil and fat sector, and the soybean oil 05 contract dropped 2.50% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm oil - The current rise is due to multiple factors such as macro funds' attention to the commodity cycle rotation, the digestion of the bearish sentiment of B50, good de - stocking progress indicated by high - frequency production and export data in Malaysia, strong expectations of Indonesia's tax increase, pre - Ramadan stocking, and the rise in energy prices. If Malaysia's production in February is less than 1.4 million tons, there will be a rapid de - stocking in reality [2]. - Malaysia's inventory in January is likely to drop to around 2.85 - 2.90 million tons. New trend - setting negative news requires Malaysia's production in February to be above 1.5 million tons. After Ramadan, there may be a rapid production increase period. Although bulls still have time to push up prices before the holiday and during Ramadan, pay attention to the correction risk in March [2]. - The improvement of the palm oil's fundamentals is slow, and there is almost no new negative news. Before the holiday, there is more trading thinking of speculating on unfalsifiable themes with the rise in energy prices. The US biodiesel policy is expected to be introduced in March, and US soybean oil has the potential to exceed 56 cents again after the policy is implemented. From the rainfall pattern last year, Malaysia's production from April to May should decline year - on - year, which is a potential driving factor [2]. Soybean oil - US soybean oil will achieve its value potential of 56 - 60 cents as 45Z, RVO, and redistribution are gradually implemented, but fluctuations caused by the EPA's inconsistent news should be noted [4]. - In terms of US soybeans, the growth of Brazilian soybeans is generally good, and the risk of drought in the core production areas of Argentina has been resolved. There is a lack of hot topics for soybean - related speculation in February. According to the current shipping schedule, the gap in soybean arrivals in China from March to April is not large. However, the domestic shutdown time during the Spring Festival holiday is relatively long, and the downstream's pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm is not strong. Be wary of the spot sentiment brought by the post - holiday stocking boom. Unilateral soybean oil is temporarily adjusted with palm oil and international oil prices [4]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Palm oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 9,234 yuan/ton, the highest price was 9,316 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,964 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,026 yuan/ton, and the decline was 2.74%. The trading volume was 2,224,522 lots, a decrease of 618,305 lots, and the open interest was 444,122 lots, a decrease of 48,387 lots [7]. - Soybean oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 8,278 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,326 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,052 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,102 yuan/ton, and the decline was 2.50%. The trading volume was 2,842,827 lots, a decrease of 355,011 lots, and the open interest was 686,836 lots, a decrease of 136,226 lots [7]. - Other data such as rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil main continuous contracts are also provided in the table, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, and their changes, as well as price differences and warehouse receipts data [7]. 3.4 Core Data of Oil and Fat Fundamentals - Malaysia's palm oil production in January decreased by nearly 15%, and the inventory in January is likely to drop to around 2.85 million tons [9]. - Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a neutral - to - wide level. The India - Malaysia price difference has recently risen rapidly. The price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has stabilized and rebounded, and Indonesia's refining profit is at a high level [11]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports from February 1 - 5 were 235,190 tons, a decrease of 1.87% compared with the same period last month. The POGO price difference is almost flat [11]. - India's palm oil import profit has deteriorated and is still lower than that of sunflower oil. The India - Malaysia CNF price difference of soybean and palm oil has declined [13]. - The basis of palm oil (in South China) for the 05 contract is - 60, and the basis of soybean oil (in Jiangsu) has weakened oscillatingly [13]. - The cumulative import volume of palm oil in the EU in 2026 has decreased by 1 million tons, and the cumulative import volume of the four major oils and fats in the EU in 2026 has decreased by 1 million tons [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats oscillated and rebounded. The complex news in the domestic and international oils and fats markets led to sharp fluctuations in the market. The cancellation of Indonesia's 2026 B50 plan and the expected resumption of Canadian rapeseed exports to China put pressure on the palm oil and rapeseed oil markets respectively. Currently, the domestic soybean oil spot is in a de - stocking cycle with a gradually rising price center. The fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil continue to improve, and Indonesia's continuous crackdown on illegal plantations boosts international vegetable oil prices. As the policy effects are released, the futures prices of oils and fats will oscillate strongly under the guidance of their own supply - demand fundamentals [5][9][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - This week, the Y2605 soybean oil contract rose 0.97% to close at 8,094 yuan/ton, the P2605 palm oil contract rose 2.72% to close at 8,910 yuan/ton, and the OI2605 rapeseed oil contract fell 0.72% to close at 8,991 yuan/ton [5][31]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 8.6% - 11.4% month - on - month, and the production in South Malaysia decreased by 16.06% month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.91% [6][31]. - **Soybean Oil**: The ANEC raised Brazil's January soybean export forecast by 1.6% to 3.79 million tons, a 338.3% increase from the same period last year. The Abiove predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production will reach 177.12 million tons, with exports of 111.5 million tons (a 3% year - on - year increase) and a crush volume of 61 million tons (a 4.3% year - on - year increase). US soybeans rose 1.07% this week [7][32]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of January 22, 2026, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,620 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of January 22, 2026, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,980 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of January 22, 2026, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,840 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of January 24, 2026, the national port soybean oil inventory decreased by 46,000 tons to 934,000 tons. As of January 21, 2026, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 776,000 tons [17]. - As of January 23, 2026, the port imported soybean inventory was 8,497,650 tons [19]. - As of January 22, 2026, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 536 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of January 22, 2026, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 36 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [23]. - As of January 22, 2026, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 838 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that palm oil prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and potential changes in Indonesia's export tax, with the market currently in a state of uncertainty regarding supply and demand dynamics [2][24][32] - The Malaysian palm oil production for December is expected to show a lower month-on-month decline of 4.64%, which is less than the estimates from other institutions, leading to increased pressure on palm oil inventories [3][20] - The upcoming MPOB monthly report is anticipated to provide further guidance on palm oil prices, with expectations of potential bearish outcomes due to inventory increases [20][22] Group 2 - Indonesia's potential increase in palm oil export taxes from 10% to 15% is seen as a supportive measure for the palm oil market, which could enhance export prices and stimulate Malaysian palm oil exports [24][32] - The market is currently focused on Malaysian palm oil, but there is a significant need to understand the supply situation in Indonesia, which produces less than half of Malaysia's palm oil output [22][24] - The USDA's January supply and demand report is expected to be crucial for the soybean market, with historical data indicating significant market volatility following its release [10][29][30]

Market Focus - Indonesia's Trade Ministry has set the reference price for crude palm oil at $915.64 per ton for January, down from $926.14 per ton in December, maintaining the export tax at $74 per ton and imposing an additional 10% export levy on crude palm oil [1] - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield for December 1-25, 2025, decreased by 8.49% month-on-month, with an oil extraction rate down by 0.12% and total production down by 9.12% compared to the same period last month [1] Palm Oil Export Data Update - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 were 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.76% from 1,316,455 tons in the previous month. For December 1-25, exports were 1,058,112 tons, an increase of 1.6% from 1,041,935 tons [2] - AmSpec reported Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.21% from 1,263,298 tons, while for December 1-25, exports were 1,017,897 tons, up 3% from 987,978 tons [2] - SGS projected Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-25 at 824,276 tons, an increase of 41.25% compared to the previous month [2] Daily Soybean Oil Spot Prices - Various regions in China reported soybean oil prices, with prices ranging from 8,170 to 8,610 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 10 to 20 yuan across different locations [4] Market Review - As of December 31, multiple institutions reported a month-on-month decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports, putting pressure on palm oil futures. However, the potential for a reduction in export reference prices and taxes at the end of the month may incentivize delaying shipments to the next month for profit [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the overall trend of oils and fats has been oscillating and weakening, lacking positive drivers. The final US biodiesel plan may be postponed until next year, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil remains high with slow destocking, which is unfavorable for the rise of oils and fats. However, after a significant decline, the downside space is expected to be limited, so it is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [4][26]. - The inventory inflection point of domestic soybean oil has arrived, and it is currently in a state of continuous small - scale destocking, but the overall inventory is not in short supply. The price of soybean oil mainly fluctuates following the overall trend of oils and fats. With sufficient rapeseed oil supply, the price of rapeseed oil is expected to face pressure [4][26]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In October, the production increased to 476,000 tons, still lower than last year's same - period level and the 5 - year average. Exports increased but remained at a low level. Domestic consumption was stable and high, leading to inventory destocking to 233,000 tons, which is still at a low level compared to the historical same - period. The CPO tender price is oscillating weakly around $850, significantly lower than last year's same - period. In November, exports decreased by 13% to 1.75 million tons, mainly due to large declines in exports to Africa and the Asia - Pacific region [10]. - **Indian Market**: In November, the import of edible oils was 1.15 million tons, a 13% month - on - month decrease, at a relatively low level compared to the historical same - period. Among them, palm oil imports slightly increased to 630,000 tons, while soybean and sunflower oil imports decreased to 370,000 tons and 140,000 tons respectively, but soybean oil imports were still high. The port inventory of edible oils in November was at a high level of 1.02 million tons, with palm oil inventory increasing to 630,000 tons. It is expected that India's edible oil imports in the 25/26 fiscal year will continue to increase to over 17 million tons, with a possible decrease in soybean oil imports but still at a relatively high level, and palm oil imports will increase from 7.5 million tons to 9.3 million tons. There are rumors of cargo cancellation for Argentine and Chinese soybean oil [13]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of December 12, 2025 (week 50), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 652,700 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.53%. The origin's quotation was stable, the import profit inversion widened to around - 200. There were rumors of near - month purchases this week, and the basis was stable. In the short term, palm oil lacks obvious drivers, maintaining an oscillating and weakening trend. After a significant decline, the downside space is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing. Palm oil can consider betting on a rebound after stabilizing, but the rebound height may be limited, and the idea of shorting after the rebound is maintained [16]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of December 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.1374 million tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 2.20%. The inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the historical same - period, but the inventory inflection point has arrived, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1306 million tons, and the operating rate was 58.61%, an increase from the previous week. The market trading was light, and some oil mills stopped production due to a shortage of soybeans. In the later stage, as soybean arrivals gradually decrease, soybean crushing will decline from the high level, and soybean oil inventory may slightly destock, but the overall inventory is not in short supply. In the short term, domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it lacks obvious drivers, expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, mainly following the overall situation of oils and fats [21]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of December 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 336,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons, still at a high level compared to the historical same - period, but the inventory is continuously destocking. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil is stable around $1100, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1500. This week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%, with rapeseed inventory reaching the bottom. Currently, the clearance of Australian rapeseed by COFCO is relatively smooth. The market is worried about the commercial opening of Australian rapeseed. Coupled with the weakening of international rapeseed prices and good import crushing profits, funds are shorting the crushing margin, causing the futures price to continue to weaken. With sufficient rapeseed oil supply, the price of rapeseed oil is expected to face pressure. At the same time, the market is still focused on the clearance speed and crushing situation after the arrival of Australian rapeseed. The continuous destocking of rapeseed oil provides some support for its price [24]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Palm oil can consider betting on a rebound after stabilizing, but the rebound height may be limited. The idea of shorting after the rebound is maintained. Soybean oil lacks drivers and may follow the overall trend of oils and fats. The core issue of rapeseed oil lies in policy changes, and it is recommended to wait and see. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [32][33]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [38]. - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Data on NOPA's US soybean crushing volume, US soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazilian soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazilian soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentine soybean monthly crushing volume, and Argentine soybean oil inventory are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [43]. - **Indian Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on Indian edible oil monthly consumption, monthly imports, palm oil monthly imports, sunflower oil monthly imports, soybean oil monthly imports, and edible oil port inventory are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [47]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Oil Import Profit**: Data on the import profit of European rapeseed oil over different years are presented in a chart [59]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, soybean oil weekly trading volume, palm oil monthly import volume, palm oil monthly sales volume, palm oil weekly trading volume, domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, domestic rapeseed oil import volume, domestic rapeseed oil monthly consumption, and domestic oils and fats spot basis are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [63][65][67]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats Commercial Inventory**: Data on domestic port rapeseed oil inventory, total domestic oils and fats inventory, domestic soybean oil commercial inventory, domestic palm oil commercial inventory, and the inventory of the three major oils and fats are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [75].

Group 1: Report Summary - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2605 soybean oil contract fell 1.06% to close at 7,994 yuan/ton, the P2605 palm oil contract dropped 2.40% to 8,552 yuan/ton, and the OI2605 rapeseed oil contract decreased 0.64% to 9,347 yuan/ton [5][30]. - In November, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.935 million tons, a 5.3% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.213 million tons, a 28.13% month - on - month decrease; and inventory was 2.835 million tons, a 13.04% month - on - month increase. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 3.23% [6][30]. - The US USDA December monthly supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean ending inventory forecast at 290 million bushels, the export forecast at 1.635 billion bushels (a 13 - year low), and South American 2025/26 soybean production forecasts (Brazil: 175 million tons, Argentina: 48.5 million tons, Paraguay: 11 million tons). US soybeans fell 1.72% this week [7][31]. - In the short term, rapeseed oil supply is relatively tight and its trend is slightly stronger than that of soybean oil and palm oil. It is expected that vegetable oil prices will likely fluctuate and consolidate in the near future [8][31]. Group 2: Spot Analysis - As of December 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [9]. - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,580 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [12]. Group 3: Other Data - As of December 13, 2025, the national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 38,000 tons to 1.13 million tons. On December 10, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 736,000 tons [15]. - As of December 11, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 8,303,640 tons [19]. - As of December 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 534 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [20]. - As of December 12, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 28 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of December 12, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 543 yuan/ton, up 252 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22].

Report Title - The report is titled "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - From November 24 - 28, the palm oil and soybean oil in the grease sector rebounded, while rapeseed oil fluctuated. Palm oil is expected to have short - term volatile rebounds; soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to run in a short - term volatile manner [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Malaysia's palm oil production increased with a narrowing growth rate and weak exports. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period last month. From November 1 - 25, different institutions showed a decline in palm oil exports compared to the same period last month. SGS estimated a 40.77% decrease, ITS showed an 18.8% decrease, and AmSpec showed a 16.4% decrease [3] - In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 3.932 million tons, a 22.32% month - on - month decrease; palm kernel oil production was 366,000 tons, a 23.9% month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.053 million tons, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease, and exports were 2.2 million tons, a 36.65% month - on - month sharp decline [4] - The implementation of the EU's Zero Deforestation Act was postponed by one year. Large operators and traders must comply from December 30, 2026, and small and micro - enterprises from June 30, 2027, which boosted palm oil prices [4] - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The US government is considering postponing the proposed cut in import biofuel subsidies by one to two years [4] 3.2 Fundamental Observation 3.2.1 Supply - No new information on supply other than production data in the market review section 3.2.2 Demand - As of November 28, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 8,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons, with domestic demand mainly for rigid needs. The weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 75,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,500 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [7] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1788 million tons, a 0.09% week - on - week decrease, still under pressure; the rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a 3.13% week - on - week decrease [8] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - As of November 28, the CIF price of Malaysian - produced palm oil was $1,051 per ton; the import cost was 8,884 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 136 yuan per ton [9] 3.2.5 Purchase and Production - From November 22 - 28, 2025, there were no new palm oil purchases or cancellations in China. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 220.08 tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,400 tons, and domestic soybean supply was relatively abundant. The production of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons as of November 28, and the crushing situation in December is to be observed after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds [10] 3.3 Conclusion - Palm oil: Recent increased precipitation and floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about production and transportation. The postponement of the European Zero Forest Act has boosted palm oil prices. However, weak exports and potential inventory increases may suppress prices. In China, inventory is slightly down but still at a relatively high level, with short - term volatile rebounds expected. Indonesia plans to lower palm oil export taxes in December [12] - Soybean oil: China continues to purchase US soybeans, and the termination of import licenses for 5 Brazilian companies has supported the cost. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are high but decreasing, and soybean oil inventory is slightly down but still under pressure. Exports increased significantly in October. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada, and the relationship between the two countries has not progressed. Domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, oil mills are shut down, rapeseed oil production is 0, and inventory is continuously decreasing. After the arrival of Australian rapeseeds, attention should be paid to customs clearance and crushing, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] 3.4 Spot Prices - As of November 28, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8,530 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan per ton; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan per ton; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,070 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton [14] 3.5 Malaysia's Palm Oil Data (October) - Production: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 2.044 million tons, a 11.02% month - on - month increase. The production in the Malay Peninsula, Sarawak, and Sabah all increased [16] - Inventory: In October, the inventory was 2.46 million tons, a 4.44% month - on - month increase, and it was at a high level compared to the same period last year [17] - Exports: In October, the export volume was 1.6929 million tons, a 18.58% month - on - month increase [20] - Consumption: Malaysia's domestic consumption was 282,400 tons, a 15.58% month - on - month decrease, falling back to the normal range [21] 3.6 India's Palm Oil Import (October) - India imported 602,300 tons of palm oil in October 2025, a 27% month - on - month decrease of 226,600 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [24] 3.7 China's Palm Oil Data - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease. In October, the import volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons [27] - In October, palm oil consumption was 228,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,200 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [29] - As of November 28, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 171 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase (the specific increase amount is missing in the text) [32] 3.8 China's Soybean Oil Data - As of November 28, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,384 tons, and it was still at a high level compared to the same period last year [34] - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.1788 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110 tons, still under pressure [35] - In October, the soybean oil export volume was 70,900 tons, a 36.45% month - on - month increase [36] 3.9 China's Rapeseed Oil Data - As of November 28, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,800 tons, and the inventory was accelerating its decline [38]

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Fats: Significant Increase in Malaysian Palm Oil Production in the First 20 Days of October, Oils and Fats May Oscillate Weakly in the Short Term" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the context of expected continued inventory accumulation at the origin and the postponement of the US biodiesel policy announcement, it is expected that oils and fats will mainly oscillate weakly in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: As of October 18, Brazil had completed 21.7% of soybean sowing, higher than 17.6% in the same period last year. Favorable rainfall in the central - western region of Brazil in the next two weeks is beneficial for sowing. The Sino - US trade relationship is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the trade negotiation progress at the end of this month [3] - **Palm Oil**: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month - on - month, while export growth decreased. It is expected to continue inventory accumulation in October, which is different from the previous expectation of inventory reduction starting in October, being negative for palm oil. After the Diwali festival in October, India's import demand for oils decreased, leading to a worse export outlook. Some Indonesian palm oil producers have reduced fertilizer use and maintenance, and the subsequent impact of this measure needs attention [3] - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are expectations of negotiations between China and Canada, which is negative for rapeseed oil. The Sino - Canadian trade relationship is still uncertain, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and rapeseed oil from other regions. Additionally, the progress of Indonesia's B50 and US biodiesel policies should be monitored [3] Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Unilateral**: The pressure level for palm oil 01 is recommended to refer to 9200 - 9400, and for soybean oil 01, it is 8300 - 8400. For options, it is advisable to buy put options on palm oil at low volatility [5] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see for now [5] - **Outlook**: Key points to watch include national biodiesel policies, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices [5] Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, palm oil prices dropped significantly due to a substantial increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 20 days of October [14] - The soybean - palm oil spread, rapeseed - palm oil spread, and rapeseed - soybean oil spread all oscillated widely. It is recommended to wait and see for now [17] Supply Side - **Malaysian Palm Oil Monthly Data**: In September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased significantly to 2.361 million tons, much higher than expected. Production decreased slightly, but the decline was less than market expectations. Exports increased month - on - month to 1.4276 million tons, in line with market expectations. Apparent consumption was 333,400 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. This report is negative for the market [30] - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil**: Data on China's imported soybean port inventory, soybean oil import volume, soybean import volume, and imported soybean crushing volume are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [33][34][36] - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Data on China's imported rapeseed port inventory, rapeseed oil import volume, rapeseed import volume, and imported rapeseed crushing volume are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [43][44][46] - **Domestic Palm Oil**: Data on China's palm oil import volume are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [50] Demand Side - Data on the trading volume of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the total trading volume of the three major oils are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [54][56][58][60] Inventory - As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons (3.25%) from the previous week and an increase of 94,000 tons (8.32%) year - on - year. The commercial inventory of palm oil was 575,700 tons, an increase of 28,100 tons (5.13%) from the previous week and an increase of 59,800 tons (11.59%) compared to the same period last year [64] - As of October 17, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 6,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed oil inventory was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, and the unexecuted contracts were 30,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous week [67] Disk Import Profit - As of October 24, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the November shipment was - 236 yuan/ton [71]