Group 1 - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 9438.00 CNY/ton and a maximum of 9446.00 CNY, while the lowest point reached 9276.00 CNY, resulting in a decline of 2.03% [1] - Factors affecting palm oil prices include rising domestic inventories in China and India, which negatively impact export demand, but Indian pre-festival stockpiling supports demand [1] - Indonesia's crackdown on illegal palm oil plantations has led to the confiscation of 3.1 million hectares, raising concerns about future palm oil production due to operational inefficiencies during the transition of management rights [1] Group 2 - The oilseed market is under pressure from falling crude oil prices, while end-users are increasing purchases at lower prices, leading to higher transaction volumes [2] - Uncertainties surrounding soybean and canola prices due to U.S.-China negotiations and Australian canola imports are negatively impacting palm oil prices, suggesting a short-term bearish outlook for palm oil [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July 2025, the domestic oil market showed a steady - upward trend. The soybean oil futures rose 2.61% month - on - month, rapeseed oil futures rose 1.01% month - on - month, and palm oil futures rose 6.84% month - on - month. Externally, CBOT soybean futures fell 3.22% month - on - month, and Malaysian palm oil futures rose over 5.98% month - on - month [3]. - Looking ahead, soybean oil may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and its price breakthrough depends on weather and trade negotiations. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term price needs to beware of policy risks. Palm oil prices may follow the external market and fluctuate strongly [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Market**: In July, domestic soybean oil had cumulative inventory and weak summer consumption, but import policy uncertainty and future destocking expectations led to a 2.61% monthly increase in futures. Rapeseed oil had an oversupply situation, but price support from Sino - Canadian trade disputes led to a 1.01% monthly increase in futures with range - bound fluctuations. Palm oil had inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand, but international cost drive led to a 6.84% monthly increase in futures [3]. - **External Market**: In July, CBOT soybean futures declined 3.22% month - on - month due to good weather and reduced Chinese demand, but the US biodiesel policy limited the decline. Malaysian palm oil futures rose over 5.98% month - on - month, with a price pull - back in the second half of the month due to increased production and decreased exports [3]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **Soybean Oil**: In August, abnormal weather may change the US soybean yield forecast. The US biodiesel policy and Indonesia's B40 plan may tighten the global vegetable oil supply - demand balance. With reduced soybean arrivals and holiday stocking, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic market currently has an oversupply situation, but with reduced coastal rapeseed inventory and oil mill production, supply may tighten in the future. Short - term prices may fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term prices need to beware of policy risks related to Sino - Canadian trade [9]. - **Palm Oil**: If the MPOB report confirms excessive inventory accumulation in July, it may suppress Malaysian palm oil prices, but Indonesia's production reduction and export tax increase provide a bottom support. The US 45Z clause and Indonesia's B50 test may boost consumption. With high domestic import costs and low arrival expectations in August, prices may follow the external market and fluctuate strongly [10]. 3.3 Registered Warehouse Receipt Volume - The number of soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased from 18,882 last month to 13,709 this month, a decrease of 5,173. The number of palm oil warehouse receipts increased from 470 last month to 570 this month, an increase of 100. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts increased from 100 last month to 3,487 this month, an increase of 3,387 [15]. 3.4 Basis Trends of Three Major Oils - The soybean oil basis decreased from 218 last month to 178 this month, a decrease of 40. The palm oil basis decreased from 214 last month to 70 this month, a decrease of 144. The rapeseed oil basis decreased from 134 last month to 90 this month, a decrease of 44 [20]. 3.5 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report - **Global Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils**: In the 2025/26 period, global oilseed production and ending inventory are expected to increase, and trade volume is expected to slightly decrease, indicating a loose supply expectation. Global vegetable oil production is basically the same as the previous forecast, trade volume is decreased, consumption is slightly increased, and the supply - demand expectation is tightened [29]. - **Global Three Major Oils Consumption**: In 2025/26, the consumption of the three major oils for biodiesel is expected to be 54,470 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.67%. The edible consumption is expected to be 127,556 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.21%, with a slower growth rate than the previous year [33]. - **Global Soybean**: In 2025/26, global soybean production is expected to increase by 864 thousand tons, mainly due to increased production in Ukraine. The crushing volume is expected to increase by 1,120 thousand tons, mainly due to increased US demand, and the export volume is expected to decrease [36]. - **Global Rapeseed**: In 2025/26, global rapeseed production is expected to be 8,953.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 388.7 thousand tons. The crushing volume is expected to decrease by 34.6 thousand tons, mainly due to decreased Canadian demand. The ending inventory is expected to be 925.9 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.44% [56]. - **Global Palm Oil**: In 2025/26, global palm oil production is expected to be 8,073.6 thousand tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a year - on - year increase of 2.27%. The ending inventory is expected to be 1,503.8 thousand tons, a slight decrease from the previous forecast and a year - on - year increase of 0.33% [69]. 3.6 Export and Production Data - **US Soybean**: As of the 47th week of the 2024/25 season, the weekly export volume was 500 thousand tons, and the cumulative export volume was 47.27 million tons, a 11.82% year - on - year increase. Exports to China were 0 tons in the week, and the cumulative exports to China were 22.48 million tons, a 5.97% year - on - year decrease. In June 2025, the US soybean crushing volume increased 5.76% year - on - year, and the ending inventory of soybean oil decreased 15.78% year - on - year [39][42][46]. - **Brazilian Soybean**: In June 2025, the export volume was 13.48 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 67.74 million tons, a 2.05% year - on - year increase. The estimated export volume in July was 12.055 million tons [50]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: As of the 51st week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the weekly export volume was 55.1 thousand tons, and the cumulative export volume was 9.4922 million tons, a 39.21% year - on - year increase. The weekly commercial inventory was 1.2014 million tons, a 24.83% year - on - year decrease. As of June 2025, the cumulative crushing volume from January to June increased 1.36% year - on - year, but the monthly crushing volume decreased 10.27% year - on - year [61][63]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In June 2025, the production volume increased 4.77% year - on - year, the export volume increased 4.05% year - on - year, and the inventory increased 10.89% year - on - year [74]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In May 2025, the export volume was 2.66 million tons, and the inventory was 2.92 million tons, lower than the previous year [77]. - **Indian Vegetable Oil**: In June 2025, the import volume was 155 thousand tons, and the cumulative import volume in the 2024/25 season was 9.43 million tons, a decrease from the previous year. The inventory was 1.57 million tons, lower than the previous year [80]. 3.7 Chinese Import and Production Data - **Import**: In June 2025, soybean imports increased 10.35% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to June increased 1.83% year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased 69.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to June decreased 21.29% year - on - year. Rapeseed oil imports decreased 23.75% year - on - year, but the cumulative imports from January to June increased 26.34% year - on - year. Palm oil imports increased 10.99% year - on - year, but the cumulative imports from January to June decreased 11.82% year - on - year [84][88][90][93]. - **Production**: As of the 30th week of 2025, major soybean oil mills had similar soybean and soybean oil inventories compared to the previous year, with a slight decrease in the startup rate. The import soybean spot crushing profit increased. Coastal rapeseed oil mills had reduced rapeseed inventory but increased rapeseed oil inventory, with a slight decrease in the startup rate and increased import rapeseed spot crushing profit. The national key area palm oil inventory increased, and the import profit decreased [98][103][105].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8984 | 8936 | 8980 | 8828 | 8946 | -38 | -0.42% | 604377 | 449955 | -6493 | | P2601 | 8972 | 8940 | 8962 | 8814 | 8932 | -40 | -0.45% | 126478 | 172241 | -2218 | | Y2509 | 8160 | 8160 | 8160 | 8062 | 8120 | -40 | -0.49% | 281245 | 490324 | -14314 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8104 | 8120 | 8022 | 8076 | -38 | -0.47% | 104689 | 384599 | 3856 | | OI2509 | 9441 | 9457 | 9467 | 9330 | 9406 | -35 | -0.37% | 258838 | 201338 | -9445 | | OI2601 | 9388 | 9409 | 9413 | 9280 | 9357 | -31 | -0.33% | 64240 | 111834 | 3489 | [7] 1.2 Basis Price - East China Rapeseed Oil Trader Quotes: 7 - 8 months: OI2509 + 90; 9 - 10 months: OI2509 + 140 for third - grade rapeseed oil; 7 months: OI2509 + 170; 8 months: OI2509 + 190 for first - grade rapeseed oil. - East China Soybean Oil Basis Price: Spot soybean oil: Y2509 + 90; 8 - 9 months: Y2509 + 160; 10 - 1 months: Y2601 + 230. - East China Spot 24 - degree Palm Oil: P09 + 50 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation. [7] 1.3 Oil and Fat Comments - Palm oil is undergoing high - level adjustments, mainly due to the drag of Malaysian palm oil trends and concerns about continuous growth in port inventories. From July 1 to 25, palm oil exports decreased by 9.2% - 15.2% month - on - month, leading to concerns about inventory backlog. The production increase and weak demand are pressuring palm oil prices. - Rapeseed oil is affected by both sufficient domestic supply and policies, with a weak basis. Attention should be paid to far - month ship purchases. - Soybean oil continues to trade in the range of 7800 - 8200. Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Its price is mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans. - The basis of the three major domestic oils in the spot market has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to appropriately buy far - month basis. The oils are expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with recent rotation of varieties for speculation. Risk control should be noted. [8] 2. Industry News - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. In May, Indonesia exported 2.66 million tons of palm oil (including refined products), a nearly 50% month - on - month increase. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that from July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.24% month - on - month. Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 18.95% month - on - month, while in Sabah it decreased by 0.14% month - on - month, in Sarawak it increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and in East Malaysia it increased by 0.01% month - on - month. [9] 3. Data Overview - AmSpec Agri data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from July 1 - 25, 2025, were 896,484 tons, a 15.2% decrease compared to the same period in June. ITS data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to June 1 - 25. - The Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) data showed that from July 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.03% month - on - month and oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.16% month - on - month. - The European Commission data showed that as of July 20, EU's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season (starting July 1) were 519,609 tons, a 32% year - on - year decrease. As of July 20, EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended, and it has shown weaker performance than soybean and palm oil recently due to the potential resumption of China - Australia trade. The current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage, and factors such as weather, trade, and domestic supply and demand affect its price [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, short - term participation is also recommended, and attention should be paid to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. The price of rapeseed meal fluctuates greatly in the short term, influenced by factors like US soybean conditions, domestic supply and demand, and trade agreements [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Short - term participation [8] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 09 contract was 9457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 129 yuan/ton from the previous week [9] - Market Outlook: Canadian rapeseed growth is weather - sensitive. The potential resumption of China - Australia rapeseed trade, the situation of palm oil, and domestic supply - demand conditions all impact the price. Although there are some bearish factors, the reduction in supply pressure and oil mill output also provide support [9] Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Short - term participation, focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [11] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 09 contract was 2675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous week [12] - Market Outlook: US soybean conditions, domestic supply - demand, and trade agreements affect the price. Although there are bearish factors, the reduction in short - term supply and seasonal demand increase provide support, while also facing substitution pressure [12] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 210,783 lots, a decrease of 36,060 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell, with a total position of 483,508 lots, a decrease of 54,942 lots from the previous week [17] - The net long positions of the top 20 in rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures both decreased this week [23] Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, showing a decline from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 83 yuan/ton [38] - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2520 yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 155 yuan/ton [44] Spread and Ratio - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was + 56 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was + 270 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [50] - The ratio of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.535, and the ratio of the average spot prices was 3.786 [53] - The 09 contract spread of rapeseed - soybean oil was 1313 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed - palm oil was 521 yuan/ton, both narrowing this week [62] - The 09 contract spread of soybean - rapeseed meal was 346 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday was 290 yuan/ton [68] 3.3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of July 18, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 200,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in June, July, and August 2025 were 260,000, 130,000, and 485,000 tons respectively. The import rapeseed spot crushing profit was + 384 yuan/ton as of July 24. The crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal main oil mills in the 29th week of 2025 was 53,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 12.96%. In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a significant year - on - year and month - on - month decrease [74][78][82][86] Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 812,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week. In June 2025, the import volume of rapeseed oil was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase [90] - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.404 million tons, and as of May 31, the catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 128,000 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons from last week [94][98] Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 11,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from last week. In June 2025, the import volume of rapeseed meal was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase [102][106] - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2.7621 million tons [110] 3.4. Options Market Analysis - As of July 25, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 23.32%, a 2.63% increase from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic edible oils oscillated upwards driven by the overall strength of commodities. In the short - term, domestic edible oils may continue to oscillate strongly, but in the medium - to - long - term, the market remains in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [8][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils oscillated upwards. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 2.18% to close at 8,160 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 3.25% to close at 8,964 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.56% to close at 9,586 yuan/ton [5][28]. - In August, Malaysia's reference price for crude palm oil was 3,864.12 ringgit/ton (about 910.28 US dollars), up significantly from July, and the export tax will increase from 8.5% in July to 9%. The Malaysian palm oil rose 3.38% [6][28]. - In the 2024/25 season, Argentina's soybean production reached 49.9 million tons, a 3.5% increase from the previous year, and the planting area expanded by 7.7%. The US soybean rose 2.73% this week [7][29]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,300 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [9]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,670 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [11]. 3.3 Other Data - As of July 11, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 37,000 tons to 1.138 million tons. On July 16, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 21,000 tons to 545,000 tons [15]. - As of July 10, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,475,410 tons [18]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 140 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [19]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 6 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 84 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils oscillated upwards. The futures prices of edible oils mostly follow external and capital fluctuations. Currently, the producing areas are in the seasonal production - increasing season, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory is likely to increase. However, Indonesia's demand for biodiesel is continuously improving, and the increase in palm oil inventory at a low level is expected to be slow. The soybean oil inventory is accumulating rapidly, and there is still room for further accumulation [28][29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, domestic oil prices fluctuated and consolidated. The palm oil in the producing areas is still in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, but the production in Malaysia decreased slightly in June, slowing down the inventory - building speed and the supply - demand pressure is not significant. The inventory of soybean oil is building up rapidly with average consumption and is expected to continue to increase. Rapeseed oil has a high current inventory, but the future supply decline is relatively clear and will enter the de - stocking cycle. Overall, the domestic oil inventory level still has room to rise. As oils are in the off - season of consumption and the downstream market mainly replenishes goods based on rigid demand, it is expected that the domestic oil futures prices will likely fluctuate and consolidate in the near future [8][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, oil futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The soybean oil Y2509 contract rose 0.53% to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, the palm oil P2509 contract rose 2.48% to close at 8,682 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil OI2509 contract fell 1.75% to close at 9,439 yuan/ton [5][27]. - In June, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.692 million tons, exports were 1.2594 million tons, and inventory was 2.03 million tons. Exports were significantly lower than expected, and inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.78% [6][27]. - For the 2025/26 season, the US soybean production was lowered by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels, while the soybean yield per acre remained unchanged at 52.5 bushels. US soybean crushing was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels due to the increased demand for soybean oil in the bio - fuel industry. US soybean exports were lowered by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels due to domestic demand growth and strong exports from Argentina and Ukraine. The US soybean ending inventory was raised by 15 million bushels to 310 million bushels. US soybeans fell 3.89% this week [7][28]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,190 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [9]. - As of July 10, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [11]. 3.3 Other Data - As of July 4, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 80,000 tons to 1.141 million tons. On July 9, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 524,000 tons [14]. - As of July 10, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,475,410 tons [17]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 204 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [18]. - As of July 10, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 32 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [19]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 141 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [21]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - The content in this part is basically the same as the abstract and the core view, emphasizing the price trends of different oils, the production, export, and inventory situations of palm oil in Malaysia, and the adjustments to US soybean production, crushing, exports, and ending inventory. It also reiterates the future trends of domestic oil inventories and price expectations [27][28].

Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic three major oils are dragged down by international oil prices due to the mitigation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August. The decline in the month-on-month growth of Malaysia's export data from June 1 - 30 is negative for palm oil prices. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, it is the off - season for domestic oil consumption, oil inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse spreads being the main trend. Attention should be paid to the upcoming quarterly grain inventory report and crop planting area report [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: first - grade soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509+220, October - January Y2601 + 280. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 240 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7] - **Market Analysis**: The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic oils are affected by international oil prices. The mitigation of Middle East geopolitical risks and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August lead to a decline. Malaysia's export data decline in month - on - month growth is negative for palm oil. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable, with increasing inventories and pressured basis during the consumption off - season. The price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, and reverse spreads are the main trend. Attention should be paid to relevant reports [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Policy**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in July, reducing the export tax to 8.5% at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From June 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 0.25% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month - on - month [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase from May. According to AmSpec, the exports in June were 1,286,461 tons, a 4.5% increase from May [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][19][20][25][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the Middle East geopolitical conflict shows signs of expansion, with crude oil prices rising continuously. In the short term, edible oils may follow the upward trend of crude oil and US biodiesel, but the upward momentum is weakening. Attention should be paid to Iran's attitude [6][26]. - Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase India's purchases. Continued attention should be paid to the purchasing situations of China and India. Domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil futures market is still strong, with significant price increases [6][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline. SPPOMA estimates that the production in the first 15 days of June decreased by 4%, with the decline narrowing compared to the 17% decrease in the first 10 days. ITS estimates that the exports in the first 20 days of June increased by 14% month - on - month, with the increase rate declining compared to the 26% increase in the first 15 days. It is expected that the inventory in June will be around 2 million tons, showing little change compared to May [10]. - Indonesia may raise the export reference price to around $875 in July, up from $856 in June, but the TAX is expected to remain unchanged, and the levy will increase slightly [10]. 3.2 Domestic Palm Oil - As of June 13, 2025 (Week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 409,600 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 9.93%. The inventory is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes are stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion has narrowed. There were sporadic purchases this week, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. In May, China imported 210,000 tons of palm oil, and the cumulative import from January to May was only 990,000 tons, at a historical low. The apparent consumption in May was basically 210,000 tons, also at a historical low [15]. - The spot market has changed little. The cumulative spot trading volume of palm oil this week was only more than 2,000 tons, significantly less than the 13,000 tons of the previous week. Recently, India has carried out cargo cancellation, but the impact on the futures market is limited. Currently, palm oil shows a fluctuating upward trend due to the Middle East geopolitical situation and US biodiesel policies, but the upward momentum weakens after a rapid increase. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, and caution should be exercised against a potential decline from high levels [15]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 847,000 tons, an increase of 34,300 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 4.22%. It is at a relatively neutral to slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis has declined, with the East China region quoting at 09 + 230. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.02%, slightly higher than the previous week [18]. - Currently, soybean oil has a good cost - performance ratio, and the spot trading volume has improved. The cumulative spot trading volume of soybean oil this week was about 110,000 tons, slightly less than the 107,000 tons of the previous week, but at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel situation, the futures market of edible oils has generally risen. Fundamentally, domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. In the short term, edible oils are expected to be relatively strong, but the upward momentum is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels [18]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 71,500 tons, with an operating rate of 19.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 769,000 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous week, still at a historical high. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil is around $1,050, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,400. In May, China imported 340,000 tons of rapeseed, but only 110,000 tons of rapeseed oil, at a relatively low level in the same period of history [23]. - The spot market is booming. The spot trading volume of rapeseed oil this week was 47,000 tons, slightly lower than the 50,000 tons of the previous week, but at a historical high in the same period. The domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable with a slight increase, with the three - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi quoting at 09 + 70. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists. The international relations and the overall trend of edible oils affect the repeated fluctuations of rapeseed oil, and there are many policy - related market changes. Risk management should be carried out [23]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Affected by geopolitical and other factors, edible oils have risen significantly. Continued attention should be paid to the Middle East situation. In the short term, the upward momentum of edible oils is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. (The views are for reference only and not for trading purposes) [28]

Group 1 - The oilseed market is experiencing fluctuations due to multiple factors, including weather conditions and policy changes in the U.S. regarding biodiesel [1] - In the soybean oil sector, the planting progress is expected to accelerate due to reduced rainfall in the Midwest over the next two weeks, despite concerns about U.S. biodiesel policy support being weaker than anticipated [1] - Palm oil production in Malaysia is projected to increase by 17%-25% month-on-month in April, with exports expected to rise by 0%-5% [1] Group 2 - The March MPOB report indicates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 3.52% to 1.563 million tons, with production rising by 16.76% to 1.387 million tons [1] - As of May 3, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 626,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.83% [1] - The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 1.19% to 356,100 tons as of May 2, 2025, while year-on-year figures show a reduction of 10.34% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff policy has raised concerns about a global economic recession, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and dragging down the oil and fat market. However, the US biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment, with US soybean oil rising sharply and providing some support to the oil and fat sector. Meanwhile, Canadian canola has been relatively strong in April due to good crushing demand and low inventory. Palm oil in the producing regions has entered an increasing production cycle, with a significant increase in production in April and a tendency for the increase to expand in May. As prices fall, demand countries like India and China have increased their purchases, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy has fallen short of expectations, and domestic and international inventories are expected to increase during the current production cycle [3][44][45]. - In terms of importing countries, India's palm oil imports in March were 430,000 tons, below the average level, and the market expects April imports to be below normal, remaining below the average for five consecutive months. China's cumulative imports in the first three months of 2025 were 390,000 tons, far lower than the same period in previous years. With the sharp decline in producer quotes, import profits have improved, and recent purchases in China have increased. According to institutional statistics, the purchases for May shipments are relatively sufficient, and the inflection point of domestic inventory is expected to occur in June [3][44]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed has once again paused interest rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The UK-US tariff agreement has been reached to some extent, but the market anticipates limited substantial progress. After a recent rebound, the US stock market still faces pressure, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level. Facing economic uncertainties and expectations of increased supply, the weak pattern of oil prices remains unchanged. Fundamentally, after entering the production increase season, production from May to October will show a seasonal recovery. After the decline in palm oil prices, import profits have improved, and demand countries have increased their purchases. However, considering the increased supply of soybeans in China, the substitution demand for soybean oil remains, which may suppress the export demand of producers. Domestic and international inventories are expected to start a seasonal recovery in May - June. Coupled with the under - performance of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation, palm oil may fluctuate weakly [3][45]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Oil and Fat Market - Since April, the overall oil and fat sector has been fluctuating weakly. Palm oil has been the weakest due to the arrival of the production increase season and poor export demand. In the domestic market, at the end of April, the palm oil 09 contract fell 522 to 8,148 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.14%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 122 to 7,832 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.53%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 142 to 9,297 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.5%. In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 401 to 3,910 ringgit/ton, a decline of 9.3%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 3.59 to 48.97 cents/pound, an increase of 7.91%; the ICE canola active contract rose 82.5 to 693.6 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 13.5%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 910 to 8,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.42%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong fell 190 to 8,070 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 40 to 9,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% [8]. - In early April, palm oil first soared and then fell sharply. The soaring was mainly due to the US biodiesel policy boosting the demand for US soybean oil, which drove the overall oil and fat market up. However, as the palm oil producing regions entered the production increase season, supply gradually increased, and the US tariff policy raised concerns about the global economic outlook. The sharp decline in crude oil prices drove the oil and fat market down, causing palm oil to fall rapidly. From mid - to late April, palm oil entered a wide - range oscillation. After the sharp price decline, the buying interest of demand countries like India and China increased, and the increased bargain - hunting purchases supported the market, while the production increase cycle suppressed it. After the May Day holiday, the domestic market made significant adjustments. With production increasing more than expected and export demand not as optimistic as expected, coupled with the continuous suspension of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy, palm oil oscillated weakly [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - The monthly data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in March was 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%; exports were 1.0055 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%; imports were 121,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%; and the ending inventory was 1.5626 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, in line with expectations, and the overall report was neutral [19]. 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - According to the data of the Malaysian Palm Oil Processors Association (SPPOMA), from April 1 - 30, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 14.50%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.48%, and palm oil production increased by 17.03%. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production from April 1 - 30, 2025, increased by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons compared with the same period last month. Among them, the production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 28.06%, the production in East Malaysia increased by 20.76%, the production in Sabah increased by 24.07%, and the production in Sarawak increased by 11.37%. According to the latest data of SPPOMA, from May 1 - 5, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 61.58%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.59%, and palm oil production increased by 60.17% [27]. - According to the data of shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in April were 825,309 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,874 tons, a decrease of 0.23%. According to the data of shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in April were 1,120,747 tons, an increase of 54,270 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 5.09%. According to the data released by independent inspection company AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil exports in April were 1,087,133 tons, an increase of 37,879 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 3.61% [28]. 2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), Indonesia's palm oil production in February 2025 was 3.79 million tons, 3.828 million tons in January, 4.25 million tons in February 2024, and the five - year average was 3.87 million tons. The total production from January - February 2025 was 7.62 million tons, compared with 8.89 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of exports, Indonesia's palm oil exports in February 2025 were 2.8 million tons, 1.96 million tons in January, 2.17 million tons in February 2024, and the five - year average was 2.34 million tons. The total exports from January - February 2025 were 4.76 million tons, compared with 4.98 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of inventory, Indonesia's palm oil inventory in February 2025 was 2.25 million tons, 2.94 million tons in January, and 3.26 million tons in February 2024 [31]. 2.4 Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - According to the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India's vegetable oil imports in March 2025 were 970,000 tons, an increase of 9.48% compared with 886,000 tons in February. In March 2024, imports were 1.15 million tons, and the five - year average was 1.05 million tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, the total vegetable oil imports were 5.64 million tons, compared with 5.77 million tons in the same period last year [33]. - For different oils, India's palm oil imports in March 2025 were 425,000 tons, an increase of 13.64% compared with 374,000 tons in February. In March 2024, imports were 485,000 tons, and the five - year average was 520,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's palm oil imports were 2.42 million tons, compared with 3.53 million tons in the same period last year. India's soybean oil imports in March 2025 were 355,000 tons, an increase of 25% compared with 284,000 tons in February. In March 2024, soybean oil imports were 219,000 tons, and the five - year average was 270,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 1.91 million tons, compared with 880,000 tons in the same period last year, showing a significant increase. India's sunflower oil imports in March 2025 were 191,000 tons, a decrease of 16.23% compared with 228,000 tons in February. In March 2024, sunflower oil imports were 446,000 tons, and the five - year average was 250,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 1.31 million tons, compared with 1.35 million tons in the same period last year [34]. 2.5 China's Oil Imports - Data from the General Administration of Customs of China shows that China's palm oil imports in March 2025 were 170,000 tons, 100,000 tons in February, 160,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 224,000 tons. The cumulative palm oil imports from January - March 2025 were 390,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons in the same period last year. China's rapeseed oil imports in March 2025 were 344,000 tons, 236,000 tons in February, 195,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 161,000 tons. The cumulative rapeseed oil imports from January - March 2025 were 732,000 tons, compared with 520,000 tons in the same period last year. China's sunflower oil imports in March 2025 were 39,000 tons, 42,000 tons in February, 126,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 111,000 tons. In 2025, sunflower oil imports were 131,000 tons, compared with 412,000 tons in the same period last year. In total, the imports of the above three major oils in March 2025 were 553,000 tons, 378,000 tons in February, 481,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 496,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils from January - March 2024 were 1.253 million tons, compared with 1.483 million tons in the same period last year [36]. 2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - According to data from My Agri, as of the week ending May 2, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 1.7788 million tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 99,800 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 626,800 tons, an increase of 8,300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 231,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 356,100 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 103,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 795,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous week and an increase of 434,500 tons compared with the same period last year [41]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The US tariff policy has raised concerns about a global economic recession, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and dragging down the oil and fat market. The US biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment, with US soybean oil rising sharply and providing some support to the oil and fat sector. Palm oil in the producing regions has entered an increasing production cycle, with a significant increase in production in April and a tendency for the increase to expand in May. As prices fall, demand countries like India and China have increased their purchases, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy has fallen short of expectations, and domestic and international inventories are expected to increase during the current production cycle [44]. - In terms of importing countries, India's palm oil imports in March were 430,000 tons, below the average level, and the market expects April imports to be below normal, remaining below the average for five consecutive months. China's cumulative imports in the first three months of 2025 were 390,000 tons, far lower than the same period in previous years. With the sharp decline in producer quotes, import profits have improved, and recent purchases in China have increased. According to institutional statistics, the purchases for May shipments are relatively sufficient, and the inflection point of domestic inventory is expected to occur in June [44]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed has once again paused interest rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The UK - US tariff agreement has been reached to some extent, but the market anticipates limited substantial progress. After a recent rebound, the US stock market still faces pressure, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level. Facing economic uncertainties and expectations of increased supply, the weak pattern of oil prices remains unchanged. Fundamentally, after entering the production increase season, production from May to October will show a seasonal recovery. After the decline in palm oil prices, import profits have improved, and demand countries have increased their purchases. However, considering the increased supply of soybeans in China, the substitution demand for soybean oil remains, which may suppress the export demand of producers. Domestic and international inventories are expected to start a seasonal recovery in May - June. Coupled with the under - performance of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation, palm oil may fluctuate weakly [45].