Group 1 - The number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand from January 1 to September 14 this year reached 23 million, a decrease of 7.08% compared to the same period last year [1] - The Thai government has revised its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals from 37 million to 33 million for this year, significantly lower than the record of 40 million in 2019 [1] - Rising domestic tourism costs post-pandemic, including increased prices for hotels, dining, and transportation, have led many tourists to question Thailand's affordability as a travel destination [1] Group 2 - The Thai baht has appreciated by 8% against the US dollar this year, reaching a four-year high, which is the second-largest appreciation among Asian currencies [1] - The strong baht is expected to reduce export and tourism revenue, potentially prompting vacationers to seek more affordable shopping options elsewhere [1] - The new Thai Prime Minister has prioritized addressing the rapid appreciation of the baht as a critical task to safeguard exports and tourism [2] Group 3 - The Thai government is actively distributing various coupons to overseas tourists for use in hotels, shops, and restaurants to encourage spending [2] - Thailand plans to launch special activities and promotions during the off-peak season to enrich tourism products and attract visitors [2] - The Thai cabinet has approved a budget of 2 billion baht to host the world-class electronic music festival "Tomorrowland" annually for five years, aimed at attracting high-spending foreign tourists [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid appreciation of the Thai Baht raises concerns among the Thai Chamber of Commerce, as the exchange rate has reached 31.70 Baht/USD, the highest level in nearly four years, which contradicts the actual economic situation in Thailand [1] Impact on Key Sectors - **Export Sector**: The appreciation of the Baht leads to increased prices for Thai products, resulting in decreased competitiveness and reduced foreign exchange income [2] - **Tourism Sector**: The rising costs of travel in Thailand make it less attractive to foreign tourists, negatively impacting the tourism industry [2] - **Agriculture Sector**: Farmers, particularly those reliant on exports like rice and cash crops, face income losses due to the strong Baht [2] Causes of Baht Appreciation - The appreciation is attributed to a weaker US dollar, driven by market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and rising international gold prices leading to increased gold trading and capital inflows into the Baht. Additionally, some capital inflows are from investment and cryptocurrency markets [3] Recommendations - The Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Private Sector Committee recommend that the Bank of Thailand systematically manage the exchange rate, particularly by separately listing gold inflows and outflows for accurate assessment. They urge the government and the central bank to take urgent measures to maintain the Baht at a level that reflects the true economic conditions, in order to avoid undermining the competitiveness of Thai businesses [3]

Core Viewpoint - Thai gold traders oppose the government's discussion on taxing physical gold and online transactions, arguing that such measures to curb the appreciation of the Thai baht could jeopardize the country's status as a gold trading hub [1] Group 1: Government Actions and Economic Impact - The central bank and the Ministry of Finance held a meeting with over ten gold traders to discuss alleviating the pressure that gold trading puts on the Thai baht [1] - Gold exports have contributed to the recent appreciation of the Thai baht, which reached its highest exchange rate against the US dollar in four years, with an increase of over 7% this year [1] - Authorities are urging members of the Greater Bangkok Area (GTA) to closely monitor gold transactions in Thai baht to control currency risks and illegal activities [1] Group 2: Gold Export Data - Data shows that Thailand's gold export value increased by 69% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, reaching 254 billion Thai baht (approximately 8 billion USD) [1] - There has been an unusual increase in gold exports to Cambodia, prompting calls for an investigation [1] Group 3: Taxation Considerations - A finance ministry source indicated that the department is considering taxing physical gold transactions to curb the appreciation of the Thai baht [1] - However, the source acknowledged that such taxation may not significantly weaken the baht's exchange rate, as the primary pressure on the baht comes from the depreciation of the US dollar [1]

Core Insights - The number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand has decreased by 7.08% year-on-year from January 1 to September 14 this year [1] Tourist Statistics - Approximately 23 million foreign tourists visited Thailand in the first quarter of this year, with Malaysia being the largest source market at 3.28 million visitors, followed closely by China at 3.23 million [1] Revised Forecast - The National Planning Agency of Thailand has revised its forecast for foreign tourist arrivals this year from 37 million to 33 million [1] Historical Context - In 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand recorded nearly 40 million tourists [1] Contributing Factors - The decline in foreign tourist numbers is attributed to increased competition from neighboring countries, such as the rise of Vietnam's tourism industry, as well as factors like the appreciation of the Thai Baht, concerns over tourism safety in Thailand, and rising hotel prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai government is considering imposing taxes on physical gold transactions to curb the rapid appreciation of the Thai baht, which is impacting exports and tourism [1][4]. Group 1: Taxation Details - The Thai central bank and the Ministry of Finance are discussing the implementation of a tax on gold transactions conducted online and settled in Thai baht, with potential exemptions for transactions in US dollars or those conducted on futures exchanges [1][4]. - The specifics of the new tax, possibly introduced as a "special business tax," are still under discussion, and the final decision will be made after the new cabinet is in place [4]. - Any tax would apply if gold sellers convert their dollar earnings into Thai baht, although the exact tax rate has not yet been determined [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Strong gold export revenues have contributed to the baht's appreciation, which has risen by 7% this year, reaching its highest point since 2021 [1][5]. - The surge in gold exports, which increased by 69% year-on-year to 254 billion Thai baht (approximately 8 billion USD) in the first seven months of 2025, has raised concerns about its impact on the economy [5]. - The strong baht is negatively affecting Thailand's key economic sectors—exports and tourism—which together account for 70% of the country's GDP [5].

Core Viewpoint - Thai authorities are considering imposing taxes on physical gold transactions to address the strengthening of the Thai baht, which threatens exports and tourism, and to investigate the unusual surge in gold exports to Cambodia [2][3]. Group 1: Taxation and Regulatory Measures - The Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance are discussing ways to tax gold transactions conducted online and settled in Thai baht, potentially exempting dollar-denominated transactions and futures trading [2][3]. - The proposed tax aims to reduce gold exports and increase the cost of gold ownership for Thai citizens, as dollar inflows linked to gold exports are contributing to the baht's appreciation [2][3]. Group 2: Gold Export Trends - In the first seven months of this year, Thailand's gold exports surged by 69% year-on-year, reaching 254 billion Thai baht (approximately 8 billion USD), with a notable increase in exports to Cambodia [3]. - Exports to Cambodia increased by 19% year-on-year, totaling 71.3 billion Thai baht (about 2.25 billion USD), potentially surpassing last year's record of 106 billion Thai baht [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The strengthening baht is negatively impacting the export and tourism sectors, which together account for 70% of Thailand's GDP, with exporters facing challenges due to a 19% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Thai products [4]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential for money laundering through gold, as the significant increase in gold exports to Cambodia appears inconsistent with the country's size and demand [3][4]. Group 4: Cultural Significance and Demand - Gold holds deep cultural and historical significance in Thailand, often used as a form of savings and wealth transfer, with demand having grown by 13% last year, making Thailand the only country to see continuous growth in gold demand since the COVID-19 pandemic began [5][6]. - Approximately 70% of gold purchases in Thailand are made through various online platforms, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards digital transactions [6].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns have been raised regarding the strong performance of the Thai baht, particularly in light of the shrinking trade between Thailand and Cambodia due to border conflicts, which could negatively impact exports [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The value of gold exports from Thailand to Cambodia reached approximately $2.149 billion, equivalent to about 68 billion baht, for the period from January to July 2025 [1] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Thai baht has appreciated by over 7%, ranking second in the region after Taiwan [1] - The Industrial Council plans to engage with the central bank and government departments to discuss and formulate strategies to address the potential negative effects on exports [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - YLG, a Thai gold trader, predicts that gold prices in Thailand may continue to rise, potentially reaching 57,000 baht by 2025, with global gold prices expected to face resistance at $3,750 per ounce [1] - Thailand is ranked among the top ten gold buyers globally and fourth in Asia [1] - Thailand is the only country to experience continuous growth in gold consumption demand for four consecutive years since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2021 [1] Group 3: Trade Concerns - The significant amount of gold exported to Cambodia, amidst serious fraud issues in the country, could lead to unnecessary public relations challenges for Thailand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the Thai Baht is primarily influenced by the weakening of the US dollar [1] Group 1 - The Thai central bank governor attributes the Baht's strength to external factors, particularly the performance of the US dollar [1]