1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand fundamentals of the pig market have not improved substantially. Although the short - term price is supported by factors such as farmers' reduced sales and increased second - fattening, the overall supply is still loose due to weakened terminal consumption, group farms' weight reduction and increased supply, and active sales by social farms [7]. - The pig production capacity is sufficient. Although the number of breeding sows has declined slightly, it is still above the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased. If pork consumption does not grow significantly, the room for pig price increase before September 2025 may be limited [7]. - In the short term, the improvement of market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market. The resistance level of the main contract is around 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Situation**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.63%. The supply - demand relationship remained loose. The number of breeding sows in April 2025 was 40.38 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The production capacity was sufficient, and the pressure on pig slaughter in the later period was still large [7]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The supply in the pig market is sufficient in the current and future periods, and the price is under downward pressure. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Pig Futures and Spot Prices**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 yuan/kg and a week - on - week increase of 1.07%. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market supply - demand remains loose [12]. - **Futures Spreads**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig Standard - Fat and Gross - White Price Differences**: The price of standard pigs was mainly supported by market sentiment, and the price of large pigs increased. The standard - fat price difference widened slightly compared with last week [29]. - **Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows**: The average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 445.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.00%. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [33]. - **Price of Culled Sows**: The average price of culled sows was 10.50 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.02%. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted next week [36]. 3.3. Production Capacity - **Inventory of Breeding Sows**: In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 400,000 compared with December 2024. In May, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory may not increase in June [40][44]. - **Elimination Volume of Breeding Sows**: In May, the elimination volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected that the elimination volume may be stable and difficult to decrease in June [48]. - **Inventory Proportion of Breeding Sows**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.4. Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. It is expected that the inventory may decrease in June [55]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased. It is expected that the actual slaughter volume may increase in June [58]. - **Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs**: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, the inventory of 140 - kg and above large pigs decreased, and the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly [61]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: The national average slaughter weight of foreign - ternary pigs was 123.78 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%. It is expected that the slaughter weight may continue to decrease slowly next week [64]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Pig Slaughter Volume**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: Terminal consumption is weak, and the cold storage rate of frozen products is at a low level. The domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [73]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh Sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises this week was 27.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.75 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate may decline in the future due to weak demand [76]. - **Substitute Prices**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.6. Cost and Profit - **Profit of Pig Breeding and Slaughtering**: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode was 61.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 9.4 yuan/head. The weekly average loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased to 53.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 25.16 yuan/head [89]. - **Gross Profit of Slaughtering and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: The current pig - to - grain ratio is 5.86, with little change. It is expected to be stable with a slight decrease next week [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs rebounded, with the main contract rising 2.45% weekly. The supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - term as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. High temperatures suppress the willingness to purchase pork, and consumption has entered a seasonal off - peak, making it difficult to support prices. Although policies and rising feed raw materials boost the sentiment of the futures market, weak demand restricts the increase of spot prices and the basis weakens rapidly, which may limit the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the live pig price will fluctuate, and the strategy suggestion is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price rebounded, and the main contract rose 2.45% weekly [6][9]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply - side: The current slaughter rhythm is normal, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. In the medium - term, supply pressure will increase. Demand - side: High temperatures reduce pork purchasing willingness, the terminal sales slow down, the slaughterhouse operating rate drops continuously, and consumption is in a seasonal off - peak. Overall, policies and rising feed raw materials boost the futures price, but weak demand restricts the spot price increase, and the basis weakens rapidly, which may limit the upside of the futures market. It is expected that the live pig price will fluctuate [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price rebounded this week, and the main contract rose 2.45% weekly [7][9]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 13, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 11,126 lots, an increase of 2,144 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 750, an increase of 275 from last week [15]. Spot Market - **Basis**: The basis of the live pig July contract this week was 705 yuan/ton, and the basis of the September contract was 210 yuan/ton [19]. - **Prices of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The national average price of live pigs this week was 14.38 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from last week and a decrease of 2.04% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 38.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.86 yuan/kg from last week and a decrease of 15.69% from last month [26]. - **Pork and Sows' Prices**: As of June 5, the national average price of pork was 25.49 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of June 24, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.29, a decrease of 0.02 from the previous week, and it was below the break - even point [35]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In April 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, an increase of 1.31% year - on - year, and equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in May, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the national live pig inventory was 417.31 million, a decrease of 10.12 million from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 8.81 million year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in May, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms was 35.6403 million, an increase of 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year; the inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4438 million, an increase of 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.5986 million, a decrease of 2.38% month - on - month and an increase of 12.35% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.4896 million, a decrease of 1.48% month - on - month and an increase of 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.96 kg, a slight decrease of 0.16 kg from last week [46]. Industry - **Breeding Profits**: As of June 13, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding reported a loss of 210.64 yuan/head, a decrease of 89.84 yuan/head compared to the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was a loss of 2.9 yuan/head, a decrease of 36.72 yuan/head compared to the previous week. The profit of poultry breeding was - 0.55 yuan/head, and the weekly loss decreased by 0.11 yuan/head [51]. - **Pork Imports**: From January to April 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of pork in total, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, but it was at a historically low level [56]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of June 13, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of June 12, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs in the country was - 0.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg compared to last week [59]. - **Feed Situation**: As of June 13, the spot price of soybean meal was 2968 yuan/ton, an increase of 27.71 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2405.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.26 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 962.11, an increase of 1.61% from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.36 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. As of April 2025, the monthly feed production was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.132 million tons [65][69][74]. - **CPI**: As of May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline rate was the same as last month [77]. Downstream - **Slaughter and Consumption**: In the 24th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 27.22%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points from last week and 4.45 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of this Thursday, the frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.34%, an increase of 0.02% from last week. As of April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.77 million, an increase of 0.46% from the previous month. In April 2025, the national catering revenue was 416.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [80][85]. 4. Live Pig Stocks The report mentions two live pig - related stocks: Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [86].

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the China Livestock Farming Index showing a strong increase, driven by key stocks like Muyuan Foods and others, despite ongoing challenges in the market due to fluctuating pig prices and inventory pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 11, 2025, the China Livestock Farming Index (930707) rose by 1.06%, with major stocks such as Shennong Group increasing by 6.69% and Muyuan Foods by 4.08% [1]. - The Livestock ETF (516760) also saw a rise of 1.08%, closing at 0.65 yuan, with a two-week cumulative increase of 2.54% [1]. - The trading volume for the Livestock ETF was 215.17 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.64% [1]. Group 2: Company Insights - Muyuan Foods reported a significant increase in pig output from January to April, with production costs improving to 12.4 yuan per kilogram by April [2]. - The company has submitted an application for H-share issuance, which may enhance its global market presence [2]. - Despite a downward trend in pig prices, the industry remains profitable, supported by Muyuan's cost advantages and improved profit margins [2]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The Livestock ETF tracks the China Livestock Farming Index, which has a current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 12.89, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past year [4]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 68.9% of its total weight, with companies like Haida Group and Muyuan Foods being significant contributors [4]. Group 4: Stock Performance Overview - The performance of the top ten stocks in the Livestock ETF shows varied results, with Haida Group declining by 2.09% while Muyuan Foods increased by 4.09% [6]. - Other notable performers include Wens Foodstuff Group, which rose by 3.05%, and New Hope, which increased by 1.57% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure will ease at the end and beginning of the month, but the selling willingness of breeders and second - fattening farmers increases, and the mid - term supply pressure will increase due to the growth cycle of sows in the second and third quarters. - After the Dragon Boat Festival, terminal demand will cool down again, and the seasonal consumption of pork will weaken with rising temperatures. - In the short term, the change in the slaughter rhythm will lead to an adjustment in hog prices, but the overall price trend is weak due to the mid - term supply - demand imbalance with a looser pattern. - The recommended strategy is to short on rallies and conduct rolling operations. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: Hog prices fluctuated and adjusted, with the main contract rising 0.67% weekly. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure will ease in the short term but increase in the mid - term, and demand will decline seasonally. Overall, the short - term price will adjust, and the mid - term trend is weak. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies and conduct rolling operations. [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, futures fluctuated and adjusted. The net short position of the top 20 futures decreased, and there were 0 futures warrants. As of May 30, the net short position of the top 20 in hog futures was 8,804 lots, 3,750 lots less than last week, and the number of futures warrants decreased by 633 to 5 lots compared to last week. [10][12][16] - **Spot Market**: - The basis of the July and September hog contracts was 1,295 yuan/ton and 895 yuan/ton respectively this week. - The national average hog price was 14.62 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg from last week and down 1.88% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.66 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and down 0.59% from last month. - The national pork price was 25.68 yuan/kg in the week of May 22, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. - The hog - grain ratio was 6.29 as of the week of May 21, down 0.13 from the previous week, below the break - even point and continuing to weaken. [20][27][31][35] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - In April, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly month - on - month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal inventory. The inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms in April showed a slight increase. - In the first quarter, the hog inventory increased year - on - year, and the inventory of institutions increased slightly in April. - In April, the hog slaughter volume increased, and the average slaughter weight remained unchanged. [40][43][46] - **Industry**: - As of May 30, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 84.37 yuan/head, a decrease of 68.32 yuan/head month - on - month; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 35.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 12.56 yuan/head month - on - month. The poultry breeding profit was a loss of 0.36 yuan/head, with a reduced loss of 0.09 yuan/head week - on - week. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, but at a historically low level. - As of May 30, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.2 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from last week; the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.01 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from last week. - As of May 30, the spot price of soybean meal was 2,975.14 yuan/ton, down 52.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,376.08 yuan/ton, up 4.31 yuan/ton from the previous week. - As of May 30, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 943.45, up 0.3% from last week; the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. - As of April 2025, the monthly feed output was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.132 million tons. - As of April 2025, China's CPI decreased year - on - year, but the decline narrowed. [51][56][60][65] - **Downstream**: - In the 22nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 29.35%, up 0.8 percentage points from last week and 9.03 percentage points higher year - on - year. The frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.28%, unchanged from last week. - As of April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30.77 million heads, an increase of 0.46% from the previous month. In April 2025, the national catering revenue was 416.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. [79][84] - **Hog Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided. [85]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The short - term supply - demand structure of the pig market remains stable with small fluctuations. Recently, due to the Sino - US trade game, the pig market is supported by the feed side, especially the far - month LH2509 contract price is relatively strong. One can cautiously go long at low prices or conduct a month - spread strategy of selling near - month contracts and buying far - month contracts. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro policies on single commodities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Weekly Summary - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 contracts increased by 0.8%, 0.8%, and 3.5% respectively. The LH2509 is the main contract [3][5]. - **Spot Data**: The national average price of commercial pig slaughter increased by 0.1%, and the price in Henan (the delivery benchmark area) increased by 0.3%. The average slaughter weight of sample enterprises increased by 0.1% [3]. - **Spread and Basis**: The 07 - 05 spread decreased by 5, and the 09 - 05 spread increased by 375. The basis of the 7 - month contract increased by 45, and the basis of the 9 - month contract decreased by 335 [3][11]. - **Slaughter End**: The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 27.36%, up 0.16 percentage points, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.38%, up 0.12 percentage points [3][31]. - **Profit and Cost**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 129.30 yuan per head, down; the purchased piglet profit was 65.80 yuan per head, down. The standard - fat spread was - 0.23 yuan per kilogram, up; the hair - white spread was 4.18 yuan per kilogram, down [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of pig warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [3]. 3.2 Pig Inventory and Production - **Piglets and Sows**: The average price of weaned piglets was 533.33 yuan per head, unchanged from last week, and the average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan per head, also unchanged. It is expected that the inventory of breeding sows in China will remain stable with minor fluctuations [20]. - **Commercial Pig Inventory**: As the temperature rises and pig production capacity recovers, the inventory of commercial pigs in April is expected to increase month - on - month [20]. - **Slaughter Weight and Quantity**: The national average slaughter weight of pigs was 123.98 kg, up 0.07 kg from last week. The average slaughter price was 14.55 yuan per kg, up 0.01 yuan per kg. The monthly slaughter plan of large - scale farms increased, and the slaughter volume in April is expected to increase month - on - month [24]. 3.3 Pig Price Spread - **Standard - Fat Spread**: The national weekly average standard - fat spread was - 0.23 yuan per kg, narrowing by 0.09 yuan per kg compared with last week. The spread is expected to continue to narrow, but the trend will slow down [28]. 3.4 Slaughter and Consumption - **Slaughter Enterprise Indicators**: The weekly slaughter开工 rate was 27.36%, up 0.16 percentage points. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 88.7%, down 0.7 percentage points, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.38%, up 0.12 percentage points. In the short term, the fresh - sales rate may further decline, and the frozen product inventory will continue to rise [31]. - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 129.30 yuan per head, a decrease of 2.67 yuan per head from last week; the weekly average profit of purchasing piglets was 65.80 yuan per head, a decrease of 39.06 yuan per head. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to fall further [40]. 3.5 Market Information Summary - **Supply**: Large - scale farms have normal slaughter volumes and high slaughter weights, with sufficient market supply [43]. - **Demand**: It is the traditional consumption off - season with poor market demand, but the entry of second - fattening after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival is more active than before [43]. - **Policy**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a new management method for breeding livestock and poultry production and operation licenses, which will be implemented on July 1, 2025. The State Council Tariff Commission raised the additional tariff rate on imported goods from the US, which is bullish for pig prices in the short term [43]. - **Non - African Swine Fever**: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some areas, with relatively limited impact [43]. - **Market Sentiment**: The Sino - US trade game makes feed prices firm, which is expected to provide some support [43].