Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure will ease at the end and beginning of the month, but the selling willingness of breeders and second - fattening farmers increases, and the mid - term supply pressure will increase due to the growth cycle of sows in the second and third quarters. - After the Dragon Boat Festival, terminal demand will cool down again, and the seasonal consumption of pork will weaken with rising temperatures. - In the short term, the change in the slaughter rhythm will lead to an adjustment in hog prices, but the overall price trend is weak due to the mid - term supply - demand imbalance with a looser pattern. - The recommended strategy is to short on rallies and conduct rolling operations. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: Hog prices fluctuated and adjusted, with the main contract rising 0.67% weekly. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure will ease in the short term but increase in the mid - term, and demand will decline seasonally. Overall, the short - term price will adjust, and the mid - term trend is weak. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies and conduct rolling operations. [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, futures fluctuated and adjusted. The net short position of the top 20 futures decreased, and there were 0 futures warrants. As of May 30, the net short position of the top 20 in hog futures was 8,804 lots, 3,750 lots less than last week, and the number of futures warrants decreased by 633 to 5 lots compared to last week. [10][12][16] - **Spot Market**: - The basis of the July and September hog contracts was 1,295 yuan/ton and 895 yuan/ton respectively this week. - The national average hog price was 14.62 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg from last week and down 1.88% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.66 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and down 0.59% from last month. - The national pork price was 25.68 yuan/kg in the week of May 22, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. - The hog - grain ratio was 6.29 as of the week of May 21, down 0.13 from the previous week, below the break - even point and continuing to weaken. [20][27][31][35] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - In April, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly month - on - month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal inventory. The inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms in April showed a slight increase. - In the first quarter, the hog inventory increased year - on - year, and the inventory of institutions increased slightly in April. - In April, the hog slaughter volume increased, and the average slaughter weight remained unchanged. [40][43][46] - **Industry**: - As of May 30, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 84.37 yuan/head, a decrease of 68.32 yuan/head month - on - month; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 35.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 12.56 yuan/head month - on - month. The poultry breeding profit was a loss of 0.36 yuan/head, with a reduced loss of 0.09 yuan/head week - on - week. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, but at a historically low level. - As of May 30, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.2 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from last week; the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.01 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from last week. - As of May 30, the spot price of soybean meal was 2,975.14 yuan/ton, down 52.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,376.08 yuan/ton, up 4.31 yuan/ton from the previous week. - As of May 30, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 943.45, up 0.3% from last week; the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. - As of April 2025, the monthly feed output was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.132 million tons. - As of April 2025, China's CPI decreased year - on - year, but the decline narrowed. [51][56][60][65] - **Downstream**: - In the 22nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 29.35%, up 0.8 percentage points from last week and 9.03 percentage points higher year - on - year. The frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.28%, unchanged from last week. - As of April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30.77 million heads, an increase of 0.46% from the previous month. In April 2025, the national catering revenue was 416.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. [79][84] - **Hog Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided. [85]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The short - term supply - demand structure of the pig market remains stable with small fluctuations. Recently, due to the Sino - US trade game, the pig market is supported by the feed side, especially the far - month LH2509 contract price is relatively strong. One can cautiously go long at low prices or conduct a month - spread strategy of selling near - month contracts and buying far - month contracts. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro policies on single commodities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Weekly Summary - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 contracts increased by 0.8%, 0.8%, and 3.5% respectively. The LH2509 is the main contract [3][5]. - **Spot Data**: The national average price of commercial pig slaughter increased by 0.1%, and the price in Henan (the delivery benchmark area) increased by 0.3%. The average slaughter weight of sample enterprises increased by 0.1% [3]. - **Spread and Basis**: The 07 - 05 spread decreased by 5, and the 09 - 05 spread increased by 375. The basis of the 7 - month contract increased by 45, and the basis of the 9 - month contract decreased by 335 [3][11]. - **Slaughter End**: The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 27.36%, up 0.16 percentage points, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.38%, up 0.12 percentage points [3][31]. - **Profit and Cost**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 129.30 yuan per head, down; the purchased piglet profit was 65.80 yuan per head, down. The standard - fat spread was - 0.23 yuan per kilogram, up; the hair - white spread was 4.18 yuan per kilogram, down [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of pig warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [3]. 3.2 Pig Inventory and Production - **Piglets and Sows**: The average price of weaned piglets was 533.33 yuan per head, unchanged from last week, and the average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan per head, also unchanged. It is expected that the inventory of breeding sows in China will remain stable with minor fluctuations [20]. - **Commercial Pig Inventory**: As the temperature rises and pig production capacity recovers, the inventory of commercial pigs in April is expected to increase month - on - month [20]. - **Slaughter Weight and Quantity**: The national average slaughter weight of pigs was 123.98 kg, up 0.07 kg from last week. The average slaughter price was 14.55 yuan per kg, up 0.01 yuan per kg. The monthly slaughter plan of large - scale farms increased, and the slaughter volume in April is expected to increase month - on - month [24]. 3.3 Pig Price Spread - **Standard - Fat Spread**: The national weekly average standard - fat spread was - 0.23 yuan per kg, narrowing by 0.09 yuan per kg compared with last week. The spread is expected to continue to narrow, but the trend will slow down [28]. 3.4 Slaughter and Consumption - **Slaughter Enterprise Indicators**: The weekly slaughter开工 rate was 27.36%, up 0.16 percentage points. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 88.7%, down 0.7 percentage points, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.38%, up 0.12 percentage points. In the short term, the fresh - sales rate may further decline, and the frozen product inventory will continue to rise [31]. - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 129.30 yuan per head, a decrease of 2.67 yuan per head from last week; the weekly average profit of purchasing piglets was 65.80 yuan per head, a decrease of 39.06 yuan per head. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to fall further [40]. 3.5 Market Information Summary - **Supply**: Large - scale farms have normal slaughter volumes and high slaughter weights, with sufficient market supply [43]. - **Demand**: It is the traditional consumption off - season with poor market demand, but the entry of second - fattening after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival is more active than before [43]. - **Policy**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a new management method for breeding livestock and poultry production and operation licenses, which will be implemented on July 1, 2025. The State Council Tariff Commission raised the additional tariff rate on imported goods from the US, which is bullish for pig prices in the short term [43]. - **Non - African Swine Fever**: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some areas, with relatively limited impact [43]. - **Market Sentiment**: The Sino - US trade game makes feed prices firm, which is expected to provide some support [43].