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玉米淀粉日报-20250707
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 14:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn market is at the bottom and may be influenced by weather factors. The import profit of foreign corn is high, and the short - term domestic corn spot is relatively stable, but the upside space is limited. The 09 corn futures will be in a weak and volatile state, and the basis will strengthen. In the long - term, it will be affected by policies and remain volatile. [5][7][9] - The price of corn starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The inventory has slightly increased this week. In the short - term, the downside space of the 09 starch futures is limited. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a loss state, and the profit will be repaired. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures (C2601, C2505, C2509), the closing prices decreased, with the decline ranging from 0.66% to 1.16%. The trading volume of C2505 increased by 453.10%, and the trading volume of C2509 increased by 42.58%. For corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2505, CS2509), the closing prices also decreased, with the decline ranging from 0.87% to 1.38%. The trading volume of CS2601 increased by 82.99%, and the trading volume of CS2509 increased by 37.58%. [3] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in northern ports and Northeast China declined. The spot price of corn in North China also decreased, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn narrowed. The price of wheat in North China was weak, and wheat continued to substitute for corn. The spot price of corn starch was stable. [3][5][7] - **Spread**: For corn inter - period spreads, such as C01 - C05, C05 - C09, and C09 - C01, there were corresponding changes. The same was true for corn starch inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The spot price of corn in North China and Northeast China declined, and the domestic breeding demand is weak. The short - term spot price of corn is relatively stable, but the upside space is limited. [5][7] - **Corn Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increased. The inventory of corn starch increased slightly this week. The price of corn starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. In the short - term, the downside space of the 09 starch futures is limited. [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 09 corn and 09 starch futures will be in a narrow - range oscillation. [10] - **Arbitrage**: Enterprises with spot goods can short the 09 corn. Expand the spread between 09 corn and starch when it is low and conduct oscillating operations. [10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Enterprises with spot goods can sell corn call options and hold them. [13] 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of various prices and spreads of corn and corn starch, such as the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 09 contract, and the spread of corn starch 09 contract. [15][17][21]
玉米类市场周报:玉米现货相对坚挺,期货盘面继续回落-20250704
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 09:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests short - term trading for both corn and corn starch. Corn futures have been oscillating downward recently. Due to factors such as increased planting area in the US, good growth conditions, and domestic import auctions increasing supply, along with wheat's substitution advantage, the corn market is under pressure. Corn starch futures have also declined, affected by the drop in corn prices. Although the supply pressure of corn starch has weakened and the spot price is relatively stable, the demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory is increasing [9][10][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Key Points Summary Corn - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [9] - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract of corn futures closed at 2353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] - **Market Outlook**: In 2025, the US corn planting area decreased slightly compared to the March estimate but increased by 5% compared to 2024. The US corn inventory in the second quarter of 2025 decreased by 7% year - on - year. The domestic import corn auction started on July 1, with significant premiums. On July 4, the auction volume increased to 306,000 tons. Wheat has a significant substitution advantage, and the feed demand for corn has decreased. The corn futures price has been oscillating downward from a high level [10] Corn Starch - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [13] - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton from the previous week [14] - **Market Outlook**: Due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years. The spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Recently, it has been affected by the decline in corn prices [14] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 9 - month contract of corn futures oscillated downward, with a total position of 945,346 lots, a decrease of 28,424 lots from the previous week. The 9 - month contract of corn starch futures also oscillated downward, with a total position of 178,348 lots, an increase of 28,954 lots from the previous week [20] Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 35,964, and the net short position decreased compared to the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 11,107, and the net short position also decreased [27] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 204,318, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 22,643 [33] Spot Price and Basis - As of July 3, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2436.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 9 - month contract and the spot average price was + 84 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2940 yuan/ton. The basis between the 9 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot price was 133 yuan/ton [38][42] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 91 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 62 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 9 - month contract of starch and corn was 364 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [57] Substitute Spread - As of July 3, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 14.03 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 120 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 13 yuan/ton from the previous week [61] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn Supply - **Port Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 300 tons, the same as the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume was 252,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons week - on - week [52] - **Monthly Import**: In May 2025, the total import of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 81.9% [70] - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 3, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.96 days, a decrease of 0.63 days from the previous week, a decrease of 1.93% week - on - week, and an increase of 1.62% year - on - year [74] Corn Demand - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, an increase of 40,000 month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [78] - **Breeding Profit**: As of June 27, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was 50.25 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 131.71 yuan/head [82] - **Processing Profit**: As of July 3, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 49 yuan/ton. As of July 4, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 540 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 384 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 111 yuan/ton [86] Corn Starch Supply - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 2, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.354 million tons, a decrease of 4.66% [90] - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: From June 26 to July 2, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 1500 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 264,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.2%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous week. As of July 2, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.313 million tons, an increase of 4000 tons from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.31%, a monthly increase of 0.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.83% [94] 4. Option Market Analysis As of July 4, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 8.72%, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous week's 9.85%. This week, the implied volatility oscillated and declined, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [97]
玉米淀粉日报-20250702
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 12:53
General Information - Report Title: Corn Starch Daily Report - Date: July 2, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Dayong - Contact: liudayong_qh@chinastock.com.cn [6] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of corn and corn starch. For corn, it is expected to have short - term stability with narrow - range fluctuations and strengthening basis. For corn starch, the 09 contract can be considered for short - term long positions, and the spread between 09 corn and starch can be widened at low levels. [9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures盘面**: All major corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price declines on July 2, 2025. For example, C2601 closed at 2262, down 18 (-0.80%), and CS2601 closed at 2666, down 12 (-0.45%). Trading volume of most contracts increased, such as C2601 with a 200.90% increase, while the change in open interest varied. [3] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions had different trends. Northern port flat - price was stable around 2400 yuan, Northeast corn was relatively strong, and North China corn was stable. Corn starch spot prices in some enterprises like Zhongliang increased by 50 yuan. The basis of both corn and corn starch was calculated for different regions. [3] - **Spread**: Various spreads were presented, including corn inter - period spreads (e.g., C01 - C05 was - 26, down 2), starch inter - period spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05 was - 14, up 6), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09 was 368, up 8). [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: US corn planting is basically finished, with prices in bottom - range oscillations. China's tariffs on US corn and sorghum are set, and foreign corn import profit is high. Northern port flat - price is stable, Northeast corn is strong, North China corn is stable with less supply, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn is narrowing. Wheat continues to substitute for corn, and domestic breeding demand is weak. Corn spot is expected to be stable in the short term. [5][7] - **Corn Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased, and Shandong corn was stable. Corn starch inventory decreased this week, with a monthly decline of 7.29% and a year - on - year increase of 22.68%. Starch prices depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong. In the long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises may have more shutdowns and profit restoration. The 09 starch contract is expected to have limited downside. [8] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Domestic 09 corn will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, and 09 starch can be considered for short - term long positions. [10] - **Arbitrage**: Those with spot can continue to short 09 corn, and widen the spread between 09 corn and starch at low levels with oscillatory operations. [10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Spot - holding enterprises can sell corn call options. Information on some option contracts such as C2509 - P - 2380.DCE is provided. [13] 3.5 Related Attachments - Multiple graphs are presented, including those showing corn spot prices in different regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 09 contract spread. [15][17][21]
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250626
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 09:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Corn**: US corn has a good excellent rate, and the trade relationship between China and the US has eased, leading to concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, the supply in the Northeast is tightening, and traders are bullish on the future. However, the expected impact of wheat substitution has slowed the rise of corn prices. The corn futures price has recently fallen from its high and is in a high - level oscillation, suggesting short - term trading [2]. - **Corn Starch**: Affected by continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years. With reduced supply pressure and strong corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively good, and the industry inventory has been declining. Recently, it has weakened along with the fall of corn prices, also suggesting short - term trading [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2378 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (7 - 9) is 107 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch is 7895 hands, and the net long position of corn is - 39278 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 217440 hands, and that of corn starch is 23174 hands [2] - The main contract CS - C spread is 350 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of CBOT corn is 405.25 cents/bushel [2] Outer Market - CBOT corn total position is 1592477 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position is - 107244 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2430 yuan/ton, and the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, and the factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2940 yuan/ton [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1899.63 yuan/ton, and the international freight of imported corn is 0 US dollars/ton [2] Substitute Spot Price - The average spot price of wheat is 2446.11 yuan/ton, and the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 135 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, and the predicted output is 35.37 million tons [2] - The predicted sown area of corn in Brazil is 131 million hectares, and the predicted output is 22.6 million tons [2] - The predicted sown area of corn in Argentina is 53 million hectares, and the predicted output is 7.5 million tons [2] - The predicted sown area of corn in China is 295 million hectares, and the predicted output is 44.3 million tons [2] - The predicted output of corn in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 113.5 million tons, and the deep - processed corn inventory is 459.2 million tons [2] - The corn inventory in northern ports is 382 million tons, and the starch enterprise inventory is 130.9 million tons [2] - The import volume of corn is 19 million tons, and the export volume of corn starch is 2664 tons [2] - The output of feed is 27.78 million tons, and the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 81 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The deep - processed corn consumption is 117.62 million tons, and the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 43.8% [2] - The starch enterprise operating rate is 51.15%, and the sample feed corn inventory days is 33.07 days [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.54%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.7% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.07%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.07% [2] Industry News - Analysts expect the US corn sown area in 2025 to be 95.35 million acres, and the soybean sown area to be 83.65 million acres [2] - Analysts expect the US corn inventory on June 1 to be 4.641 billion bushels, a 7.1% decrease from the same period last year [2] - As of June 22, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn is 70%, lower than the market expectation of 72% [2] Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]
玉米淀粉日报-20250624
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 13:00
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2291 | 2 | 0.09% | 24,184 | 73.19% | 106,578 | 6.82% | | C2505 | | 2317 | -2 | -0.09% | 3,148 | 13.28% | 13,234 | 13.47% | | C2509 | | 2408 | -1 | -0.04% | 495,033 | 32.83% | 994,996 | 3.72% | | CS2601 | | 2679 | -18 | -0.67% | 1,012 | 16.59% | 4,514 | -4.75% | | CS2505 | | 2698 ...
玉米淀粉日报-20250623
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 12:12
| 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2291 | 2 | 0.09% | 24,184 | 73.19% | 106,578 | 6.82% | | C2505 | | 2317 | -2 | -0.09% | 3,148 | 13.28% | 13,234 | 13.47% | | C2509 | | 2408 | -1 | -0.04% | 495,033 | 32.83% | 994,996 | 3.72% | | CS2601 | | 2697 | 1 | 0.04% | 868 | 93.32% | 4,739 | 1.52% | | CS2505 | | 2709 | 2 | 0.07% | 17 | 376.47% | 159 | 8.16% | | CS2509 | ...
玉米类市场周报:玉米现货涨势收窄,盘面维持高位震荡-20250620
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 08:53
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 玉米类市场周报 玉米现货涨势收窄 盘面维持高位震荡 研究员:许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话:0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议:短线交易为主。 3 Ø 玉米: Ø 行情回顾:本周玉米期货窄幅震荡。主力2509合约收盘价为2409元/吨,较前一周+5元/吨。 Ø 行情展望:美国农业部(USDA)在每周作物生长报告中公布称,截至2025年6月15日当周,美国玉 米优良率为72%,高于市场预期的71%,前一周为71%,上年同期为72%。美玉米优良率向好,且 中美原则上达成框架协议,贸易关系有所缓和,市场忧虑远期进口压力。国内方面,国内主产区 存粮不断减少支撑贸易商挺价惜售情绪强,加之托市收购稳价新麦购销升温,基层玉米上量持续 降低,企业库存不断消耗,收购价格继续偏强,但小麦替代效应以及进口玉米投放预期冲击,玉 米价格上涨势头有所放缓。 ...
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250617
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 11:18
近期涨势有所放缓,近日高位略有回落,短线参与为主。 玉米系产业日报 2025-06-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | | | | | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) -3 玉米淀粉月间价差(7-9):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -81840 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2364 113 555574 | 5 吨) | 2685 -93 143239 | -4 -1 -11902 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 9216 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -96759 | | 1171 | 5131 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 0 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 215285 | 手) | 24236 | 0 | | | 主力合约C ...
玉米淀粉日报-20250612
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 10:50
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 6 月 12 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2266 | -3 | -0.13% | 21,146 | -34.89% | 86,071 | 1.89% | | C2505 | | 2299 | 1 | 0.04% | 1,524 | -31.90% | 7,063 | 11.19% | | C2509 | | 2396 | 0 | 0.00% | 253,928 | -31.67% | 672,748 | 1.55% | | CS2601 | | 2673 | 0 | 0.00% | 743 | -12.49% | 4,558 | 0.33% | | CS2505 | | 2685 ...
玉米日报-20250610
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:29
行业 玉米日报 日期 2025 年 06 月 10 日 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:wind,建信期货研究中心 玉米行情: 期货方面,9 日,玉米主力 2507 合约小幅高开后震荡走高,尾盘收阳,最高 2361 吨,最低 2338 吨,收盘报 2357 吨,较上一 ...