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2300!玉米涨得停不下来了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 12:09
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in corn futures prices is supported by strong demand and logistical challenges, indicating that the upward trend may continue for the time being [2][4]. Group 1: Price Movement - Corn futures reached a high of 2302, marking a 1.28% increase during the night session, and closed at 2295 during the day, reflecting a 0.97% rise compared to the previous settlement price [2]. - The significant price increase was influenced by a 100 yuan/ton rise in prices at the Harbin branch of the China Grain Reserves Corporation, which boosted market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Strong demand is evident, particularly at ports, driven by a backlog of contracts for November and December, coupled with low inventory levels [5]. - The demand for high-quality corn from Northeast China has increased due to quality differentiation in corn from North China caused by weather issues [6]. - Despite low overall downstream consumption, the rising corn prices have altered market sentiment, prompting companies to consider stockpiling [7][9]. Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - Although Northeast China has a good corn harvest, the distribution is overly concentrated, leading to tight logistics and transportation challenges [10]. - The supply situation in North China is also tight, necessitating reliance on Northeast corn for additional supply [11]. - From November onwards, transportation capacity in Northeast China has become noticeably strained, with reports of reduced discounts on rail segments and even temporary halts in unloading [12][13]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current market is not characterized as a bull market, suggesting that while prices may rise, the increases will be gradual and not without challenges [15]. - The main risk to corn prices is the potential for increased selling pressure as prices rise, which could lead to more corn being sold if the selling sentiment shifts [16].
玉米类市场周报:现货市场小幅回暖,玉米期价震荡收高-20251121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 10:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner this week. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The USDA report is slightly bearish, and the domestic corn market has different situations in different regions. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. - Corn starch futures also closed higher in a narrow - range volatile manner. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week. With sufficient raw material supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA report shows that the US corn production is slightly bearish. In the domestic market, the purchase price in the Northeast is rising due to reduced supply, but the logistics is poor. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the price increase of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 1 - month contract of corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 949,440 lots, an increase of 2,138 lots from last week. The 1 - month contract of corn starch futures also closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 236,928 lots, a decrease of 1,007 lots from last week [16]. 3.2.2. Top Twenty Net Position Changes - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 108,473 this week, compared with - 121,652 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 43,094 this week, compared with - 53,346 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions [22]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 68,764 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 11,710 lots [28]. 3.2.4. Spot Price and Basis - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 1 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 83 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton, with a slight recovery this week. The basis between the 1 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 88 yuan/ton [33][37]. 3.2.5. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was + 0 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was + 5 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [43]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 1 - month contract of starch and corn was 317 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with last week [52]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,503.67 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 224.85 yuan/ton. In the 46th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton compared with last week [57]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - **Inventory at Ports**: As of November 14, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 27.3 tons, a decrease of 18.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 35.5 tons, a decrease of 5.70 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 117 tons, an increase of 9.9 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 40 tons, a decrease of 18.20 tons week - on - week [47]. - **Selling Progress**: As of November 20, the total selling progress of domestic corn was 27%, an increase of 3% from last week and 2% year - on - year [59]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's corn import volume was 56,562.26 tons, a decrease of 256,532.84 tons (81.93%) year - on - year, and an increase of 20,404.55 tons month - on - month [63]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory Days**: As of November 20, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.23 days, an increase of 0.62 days from last week, a 2.42% week - on - week increase, and a 9.58% year - on - year decrease [67]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million heads (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) year - on - year and 90,000 heads (0.2%) quarter - on - quarter [71]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 114.81 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 205.64 yuan/head [75]. - **Processing Profit**: As of November 20, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 28 yuan/ton. As of November 21, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 434 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 549 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 299 yuan/ton [80]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 272.7 tons, a decrease of 0.29% [84]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: From November 13 to 19, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 61.24 tons, a decrease of 1.95 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 31.5 tons, a decrease of 1.34 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 60.89%, a decrease of 2.59% from last week. As of November 19, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 110.9 tons, a decrease of 2.40 tons from last week, a 2.12% weekly decrease, a 1.68% monthly decrease, and a 25.59% year - on - year increase [88]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of November 21, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn was 8.42%, up 0.46% from last week's 7.96%. The implied volatility rebounded this week and was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].
玉米仍是美国“强项”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 09:20
Group 1 - The corn market remains bullish due to record export demand, despite a price pullback this week [1] - December corn futures rose by 0.5 cents to $4.3025, following a drop of 7 cents to $4.2975, marking the lowest closing price since November 10 [3] - The USDA reported that as of last Sunday, corn harvest progress reached 91%, lower than 98% at the same time last year and slightly below the five-year average of 94% [3] Group 2 - The USDA raised the average corn yield to an unexpected 186 bushels per acre, with total production estimated at 16.752 billion bushels, a 12% increase from 2024 [4] - August corn export volume reached 6.397 million tons (251.8 million bushels), a record for the period, and increased by 25% compared to August 2024 [4] - The EIA reported a 1.5% week-over-week increase in ethanol production, with an average daily output of 1.091 million barrels [5]
Corn Falls Back on Wednesday
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-19 22:52
Market Overview - Corn futures experienced a decline, with contracts down 7 to 8 cents across most months, and the national average Cash Corn price decreased by 6 3/4 cents to $3.91 1/4 [1] - External market pressures included a $1.15 drop in crude oil prices and a $0.606 increase in the dollar index [1] Ethanol and Corn Exports - EIA data indicated a rebound in ethanol production by 16,000 barrels per day to 1.091 million bpd for the week ending November 14, with ethanol stocks rising by 88,000 barrels to 22.307 million barrels [2] - August corn exports reached a record 6.397 MMT (251.8 million bushels), marking a 25.42% increase from the previous year and a 2.76% rise from July [3] - Distillers exports increased by 7.47% year-over-year to 1.167 MMT, while ethanol exports also set a record for August at 188.77 million gallons, up 23.76% from last year and 14.84% from July [3] Import and Export Activity - Analysts anticipate corn export sales for the week of October 2 to be between 1.4 to 2.5 MMT [4] - A South Korean importer secured 130,000-135,000 MT of corn in a recent tender, with the origin yet to be disclosed [4] - Brazil's ANEC projected November corn exports at 6.36 MMT, reflecting a 0.32 MMT increase from prior estimates [4] Speculative Positions - CFTC data revealed that speculators increased their net short position in corn futures and options by 40,635 contracts, bringing the total net short to 135,310 contracts as of September 30 [5] - Closing prices for December 25 Corn were $4.29 3/4 (down 7 cents), Nearby Cash at $3.91 1/4 (down 6 3/4 cents), March 26 Corn at $4.41 1/2 (down 8 cents), and May 26 Corn at $4.49 (down 7 1/2 cents) [5]
玉米现货上涨,盘面偏强震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 11:50
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may continue to be revised downwards. The December contract of US corn has strong support at 420 cents per bushel. The selling pressure in the Northeast market has weakened, but the supply of corn in North China is relatively low, causing the corn spot price to rise. In the short term, corn will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the rebound space of contracts 01 and 05 is limited. The spread between contracts 01 and 05 has narrowed. According to the seasonal pattern, the rebound space of the spot price in November is limited. [4] - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and starch inventory has decreased, but it remains at a historically high level for the same period. As the spot price of corn is relatively strong, the spot price of starch is also rising. However, the profit of starch factories in North China has declined, and the operating rate of starch enterprises will continue to increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to fall. It is expected that the December contract of corn starch will fluctuate at a high level following corn. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: The US corn is expected to have its yield per unit revised down, but the yield is high. It oscillates at around 430 cents per bushel this week, with strong support at 420 cents per bushel for the December contract. Although the tariff for importing US corn into China has been adjusted, there is still no profit in importing US corn. The focus of the market is on farmers' selling rhythm, and there may still be selling pressure on Northeast corn in November. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn is increasing, and downstream demand for replenishment is driving up the price. The supply of North China corn has decreased, and the corn spot price is oscillating strongly. It is expected that the purchase price at the northern ports will be supported at around 2120 yuan per ton. Contract 01 of corn futures will oscillate at a high level, with limited short - term rebound space. [4] - **Starch Situation**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and inventory has decreased but remains high. The spot price of starch is rising with the relatively strong corn price. However, the profit of starch factories in North China has declined, and the operating rate will continue to increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the spot price of starch may fall. It is expected that contract 01 of corn starch will follow corn and oscillate at a high level. [4] - **Trading Strategies** - For single - sided trading, consider buying the December contract of US corn below 420 cents per bushel. For contract 05 of corn, consider long - term buying below 2220 yuan per ton. [5] - For arbitrage, consider buying contract 01 of corn and selling contract 01 of starch, and short the spread when the price is high. [5] - For options, consider a cumulative purchase strategy for contract 05 of corn at low prices. [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market - US Corn**: The October report has not been released yet. It is expected that the yield per unit of US corn will continue to be revised down, but the US corn is in a bumper harvest. The price is oscillating at the bottom, and the December contract has support at 420 cents per bushel. Although China has adjusted tariffs on US agricultural products, there is still no profit in importing US corn. As of November 13, the import profit of Brazilian corn at Guangdong Port is 164 yuan per ton. As of November 6, the weekly export inspection volume of US corn is 1.42 million tons, with a cumulative export volume of 13.73 million tons. The export volume to China this week is 0 tons, with a cumulative export volume of 0 tons. In September, the import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 930,000 tons, compared with 12.83 million tons in the same period last year. As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn has increased, and the ethanol production has increased. [8][10][11][12][17] - **Domestic Market - Corn Consumption and Inventory** - Feed enterprises: As of November 12, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills is 25.61 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.73 days, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.11%. [21] - Deep - processing enterprises: From November 7 to November 12, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3865 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 46,000 tons. As of November 12, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises is 273,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15%. It is expected that the inventory will increase next week. [22] - Port Inventory: As of November 7, the corn inventory at the four northern ports is 1.071 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons, and the shipping volume of the four ports is 582,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 134,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory is 454,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons; the foreign - trade inventory is 412,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,000 tons; the imported sorghum is 417,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons; the imported barley is 706,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons; the total grain inventory is 1.989 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons. [25] - Corn Selling Progress: The selling progress of corn in the main producing areas across the country is faster than last year. The overall national selling progress (including all 13 provinces) is 24%, a week - on - week increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 1%. The selling progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 21%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. [26] - **Starch Situation**: From November 7 to November 13, the national corn processing volume is 631,900 tons, and the starch production is 328,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons. The operating rate is 63.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. The spot price of corn in North China has risen, driving up the spot price of starch. The by - product price is stable, and the enterprise profit is stable. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang is 33 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan, and the profit in Shandong is 36 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan. Downstream提货 volume has increased, the operating rate has risen, and starch inventory has decreased. As of November 12, the corn starch inventory is 1.133 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.59%. It is expected that the starch inventory will increase next week. [30] - **Substitute - Wheat**: The factory - delivered price of wheat in North China is basically 2,490 yuan per ton, and the price is relatively strong. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The price of corn in North China and Northeast China is strong, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened, and the price difference between North China corn and contract 01 of corn has increased. [36] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From November 7 to November 13, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs is - 64 yuan per head, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 121 yuan per head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers is - 0.47 yuan per chicken, compared with - 0.31 yuan per chicken last week. The breeding cost of laying hens is 3.44 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit is - 0.43 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.52 yuan per catty last week. [41][47] - **Deep - processing of Corn Starch - Downstream Consumption**: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup is 40.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the operating rate of maltose syrup is 43.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59%. The operating rate of corrugated paper is 66.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%; the operating rate of boxboard paper is 70.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64%. [50] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No specific additional data tracking content is provided other than what has been summarized above.
生猪、玉米周报-20251110
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The live hog price is oscillating, and the corn futures market is oscillating and rebounding. The short - term live hog price may stabilize, and the corn market is in a supply - demand game stage with suggestions to participate in the short - term trading [3][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Hogs - Futures: Last week, the live hog futures were in a low - level oscillation. The LH2601 contract closed at 11,865 yuan/ton, a 0.08% decline from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average market price of outer three - yuan live hogs was 11.98 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 yuan/kg [5] - Profit: As of November 7, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog breeding profit was - 89.21 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.54 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 4.18 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.53, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 [5] - Market situation: The national live hog spot price stopped rising and fell last week. The market supply increased, but the downstream demand was insufficient. However, as the price dropped again, the slaughter acquisition sentiment improved, and the retail farmers' resistance to price cuts was strong. The short - term price may stabilize [5] Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures were oscillating strongly. The C2601 contract closed at 2,149 yuan/ton, a 1.46% increase from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,238.53 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton. Different ports had different price changes [6] - Consumption: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3818 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 0.0286 million tons. The corn starch industry's开机率 increased, while the alcohol industry's开机率 decreased [7] - Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.795 million tons, a decrease of 1.13%. As of November 7, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 1.02 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 0.87 million tons [7] - Market situation: The decline of the national corn spot price slowed down last week. The market is in the new grain listing stage, with the purchase scope of the State Reserve Grain Corporation expanding. The downstream low - inventory enterprises have restocking needs, but the power to continuously raise prices is limited. The short - term corn market is in a supply - demand game, and the futures market is oscillating and rebounding [8]
东北玉米上量增加,盘面反弹有限
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 15:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may be further reduced later. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 400 cents per bushel and will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The focus of the market is on the grain - selling rhythm in Northeast China, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak in the short term, while the supply in North China is increasing. The spot price of corn is oscillating at the bottom. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited short - term rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4][5]. - Starch: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, but downstream demand is weak, resulting in an increase in inventory. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for the spot price to fall with the large - scale listing of new corn. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: The US corn is expected to see a yield per unit reduction, but the yield is high. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 420 cents per bushel. There is no profit in importing US corn. The market focus is on the Northeast selling rhythm, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak, North China's supply is increasing, and the spot price is at the bottom. The North Port purchase price may fall to around 2070 yuan/ton. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - **Starch Situation**: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a historical high. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for it to fall. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try to buy the 12 - contract of US corn below 420 cents per bushel. Long - term buy the 05 corn below 2220. Try to buy 01 corn and sell 01 starch, and shrink the spread when it is high. Adopt the strategy of accumulating purchases for the 05 corn at low prices [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Market - **Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September report, although the yield per unit of US corn may be further reduced, the overall supply is still loose. The ending stocks of global and US corn have slightly decreased. The import tariffs of US corn and sorghum in China have been adjusted, but there is still no profit in importing US corn [8][11]. - **Market Position and Ethanol Production**: As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn increased, and ethanol production increased. The 12 - contract of US corn oscillates around 430 cents per bushel [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - **Inventory and Consumption**: Feed enterprise corn inventory increased but is lower than the same period last year. Deep - processing consumption increased, and inventory decreased slightly but is expected to increase next week. North Port corn inventory increased, and South Port grain inventory decreased [21][22][25]. - **Grain - Selling Progress**: The grain - selling progress is faster than last year. The overall progress of 13 provinces is 22%, 3% higher than the same period last year; the progress of 7 provinces is 18%, 2% higher than the same period last year [28]. - **Starch Market**: The operating rate of starch factories increased, downstream demand was weak, inventory increased significantly year - on - year, and enterprise profits decreased [32]. - **Substitute Market**: The wheat price is basically stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From October 30 to November 6, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 35 yuan per head, a decrease of 10 yuan per head from last week; the profit of purchasing piglets was - 117 yuan per head, an increase of 13 yuan per head from last week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.31 yuan per bird, and the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.52 yuan per catty [48][54]. - **Starch Downstream Consumption**: The operating rate of starch sugar and paper mills increased. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup was 40.67%, an increase of 2.62% from last week; the operating rate of maltose syrup was 43.09%, an increase of 1.48% from last week. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 69.9%, an increase of 0.73% from last week; the operating rate of boxboard paper was 71.47%, an increase of 0.63% from last week [57]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitutes**: The price of wheat in North China is around 2490 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39].
玉米淀粉日报-20251106
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US corn is expected to remain in a narrow - range oscillation. The spot price of domestic corn still has room to decline, and the 01 corn contract is likely to continue to fall. The corn starch spot price is expected to decline later, and the 01 starch contract on the short - term disk is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7][5][6] Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of different corn and corn starch futures contracts showed varying degrees of increase, with the increase ranging from 0.35% to 0.93%. The trading volume also had significant growth, with the increase rate ranging from 44.48% to 89.04%. The changes in the open interest were relatively small, with an increase or decrease range of - 1.33% to 6.00% [1] - **Spot Market Data**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, and Zhucheng Xingmao were provided, along with their price changes. The spot prices of starch from different manufacturers like Longfeng, COFCO, and Cargill were also given, with no price changes on that day [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of corn and corn starch, as well as the spreads between different futures contracts (including corn inter - period spreads, starch inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads) and their price changes were presented [1][4] Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn rebounded due to the easing of Sino - US relations, but the production remained high, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn decreased. The spot price of corn in the Northeast was stable, while the supply in North China increased, causing the spot price to decline. The domestic breeding demand was stable, but the downstream feed enterprises had low inventory. The 01 corn contract showed a strong oscillation, and the spot basis weakened. The spot price of corn still had room to decline in the short term [3][5] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong was stable. The starch inventory increased this week, with a monthly increase of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 33.26%. The starch price was mainly affected by the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price was strong, and the enterprise profit was good. The 01 starch contract followed the corn to oscillate strongly, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The US corn is expected to continue to narrow - range oscillate. The spot price of North China corn is relatively stable, while the Jilin corn is being listed in large quantities, putting pressure on the spot price. It is recommended to short the 05 and 01 corn contracts on a short - term basis and try to narrow the spread between the 01 corn and starch contracts when the spread is high [7][8] Third Part: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls, with rolling operations [10] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include various graphs showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads between different corn and corn starch contracts, and the basis and spreads of the corn starch 01 contract [12][14][18]
玉米系数据日报-20251106
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 05:12
Group 1: Report General Information - The report is titled "Corn System Data Daily" and is from the Agricultural Products Research Center of ITC Futures Research Institute, written by Huang Xianglan on November 6, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Market Data Summary Spot Market - Corn spot prices in various regions show different trends. For example, the price in Henan - Zhengzhou increased by 20 yuan to 2220 yuan, while the price in Jilin - Changchun decreased by 10 yuan to 2060 yuan. Corn starch spot prices in Jilin remained at 2550 yuan, and wheat spot prices in Anhui remained at 2517 yuan [5] Futures Market - The closing price of the corn main contract was 2115 yuan, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the corn starch main contract was 2420 yuan, up 8 yuan. The closing price of US corn was 430.75 cents per bushel, with an estimated profit of 96.03 yuan per ton for imported US corn [5] Spread and Inventory Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous) was 305, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average) was 490. North Port corn inventory was 852 thousand tons, and Guangdong Port's domestic and foreign trade corn inventories were 193 thousand tons and 194 thousand tons respectively. Deep - processing corn inventories in the Northeast and North China were 1.926 million tons and 685 thousand tons respectively [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Northeast production areas face concentrated supply pressure, and there is also pressure to store poor - quality damp grain in North China. The 2025/2026 planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is stable or slightly decreasing, the yield per unit is good, and there is an overall expectation of a bumper harvest. Imported grain supply is shrinking due to policy restrictions [5] Demand - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Feed enterprises have a rigid demand for replenishing inventory, and deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs, but they tend to lower prices for low - quality grain [5] Group 4: Inventory Situation - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, and the corn inventory at South Ports has rebounded from a low level. With the addition of new - season corn, ports are expected to be in an inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprise inventories are at a low level, and deep - processing corn inventories are seasonally accumulating [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - In the short - term, North Port prices are relatively firm, but both futures and spot prices will face selling pressure tests later. The market is expected to show a volatile bottom - building trend. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of traders' grain purchases and policy changes [6]
玉米淀粉日报-20251103
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 10:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The U.S. corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, and the domestic corn spot has different trends in different regions. The short - term corn spot still has room to fall. The 01 corn futures have limited rebound space [4][6][8]. - The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking. The enterprise profit is good due to the large decline in corn price. The 01 starch futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2141 with a 0.51% increase, C2605 at 2244 with a 0.76% increase, and C2509 at 2263 with a 0.44% increase. For corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2453 with a 0.53% increase, CS2605 at 2558 with a 0.39% increase, and CS2509 at 2601 with a 0.46% increase [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions had different changes, with prices in Qinggang falling by 5, and in Zhucheng Xingmao rising by 52. Starch spot prices in most regions remained stable, except for Yufeng which decreased by 30. The basis of corn and starch also varied in different regions [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads of corn and corn starch futures contracts and cross - variety spreads had different changes. For example, C01 - C05 was - 103 with a - 6 change, and CS01 - CS05 was - 105 with a 3 change [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The U.S. corn market is affected by the high - yield situation and the easing of Sino - U.S. relations. The import profit of foreign corn has declined. The domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. The short - term corn spot still has room to fall, and the market is concerned about the selling pressure of Jilin corn at the end of October [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn starch inventory has declined. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The enterprise profit is good, but the corn starch spot may fall later [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The U.S. corn is expected to oscillate narrowly. The 05 and 01 corn long positions should be closed and wait and see. The spread between 01 corn and starch can be tried to shrink when it is high [8][9]. Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put and call strategy with rolling operations [11]. Part 4: Related Attachments - There are six figures, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads of corn 1 - 5 and corn starch 1 - 5, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of corn starch 01 contract [13][15][20].