1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn supply is abundant. In the short - term, the US corn 03 contract will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel. Currently, corn in Northeast China is gradually coming to market, and the supply in North China is also increasing. There will still be a peak of grain sales at the end of January. The rebound of corn spot is limited, and corn will be relatively stable before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, corn is relatively stable, the futures price is at par with the spot price, and the rebound space of 03 corn is limited. Starch will also be relatively stable [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the yield per unit and area of US corn in January. This week, US corn fluctuated narrowly, digesting the negative news. It is expected that the 03 contract of US corn will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel. The import profit of US and Brazilian corn is high. Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, and the supply of corn has increased, but the port inventory is still low, and the port price is strong. It is expected that the spot will be relatively stable before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the supply of corn in Northeast China has increased, but the downstream has replenished inventory due to rigid demand, and the port inventory is still low, so the price of Northeast corn has risen slightly. The supply of corn in North China has increased, and the spot price is relatively stable. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China is still at a high level, and it is expected that the supply of corn will continue to increase next week. It is expected that the supply in the northern port will increase in the short - term, and the purchase price will be relatively stable. The 03 corn will fluctuate at a high level [4]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has increased, and the starch inventory has decreased, but it is still high. The spot price of corn has risen, and the downstream is still stocking up recently, so the spot price of starch has also risen. The profit of starch factories in North China is relatively stable. In the later stage, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the spot price of starch will be relatively stable. It is expected that the 03 corn starch will follow the high - level fluctuation of corn [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: - One - sided: Try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents per bushel. Try to short 03 corn above 2300 [5]. - Arbitrage: Carry out a reverse spread of 3 - 5 starch [5]. - Options: Adopt a strategy of accumulating put options for 03 corn at high prices [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International - US Corn - **Yield Increase and Bottom - Level Fluctuation**: In January, the USDA's report increased the yield per unit and area of US corn. The yield per unit was increased from 186 bushels per acre to 186.5 bushels per acre. This week, US corn fluctuated at the bottom, and the 03 contract fluctuated around 420 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import tariff of US corn is 11%, and that of US sorghum is 12%. Calculated at an 11% tariff, the import cost of US corn in February is around 2170 yuan per ton, with good import profit. As of January 22, the price at Guangdong Port is 2450 yuan per ton, and the cost of Brazilian corn arriving in March is 2127 yuan per ton, with an import profit of 323 yuan per ton [9]. - **Non - commercial Net Short Position Increase and Ethanol Production Increase**: As of January 13, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 33,000 lots, and the net short position increased. The ethanol production in the United States increased significantly. The 03 contract of US corn fluctuated at the bottom, around 420 cents per bushel [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic - **Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises**: The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is less than the same period last year. As of January 22, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 31.32 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 days, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From January 15 to January 21, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1381,500 tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has risen, and it is expected to continue to increase next week. As of January 14, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 3.838 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.4% [19][20]. - **Port Inventory**: The corn inventory in the northern ports has increased, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has decreased. As of January 16, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.497 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 million tons. The shipping volume of the four ports that week was 389,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 306,000 tons. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,000 tons; the foreign trade inventory was 219,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons; the imported sorghum was 61,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons; the imported barley was 694,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons; the total grain inventory was 1.452 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons [23]. - **Grain Sales Progress**: The grain sales progress has accelerated. The overall sales progress of 13 provinces was 56%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The sales progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) was 54%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and the same as the same period last year [27]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of deep - processing has increased. From January 15 to January 21, the national corn processing volume was 635,500 tons, and the starch output was 330,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,400 tons. The operating rate was 60.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. The spot price of corn in North China has stabilized, the spot price of starch has risen, the by - product price has been stable, and the enterprise profit has decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 89 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan, and the profit in Shandong was 14 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan. The downstream提货 volume has decreased, the operating rate has declined, and the starch inventory has decreased. It is expected that the starch inventory will rise next week. As of January 21, the corn starch inventory this week was 1.069 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons, a decrease of 2.8%, a monthly decrease of 3.0%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [31]. - **Substitutes - Wheat**: The arrival price of wheat in North China is basically 2500 yuan per ton, and the price is stable. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. Corn in North China and Northeast China is strong, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn is low [37]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From January 16 to January 22, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 116 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 52 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was 38 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 77 yuan per head. From January 15 to January 21, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.36 yuan per chicken, compared with 0.93 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost this week was 3.54 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was 0.13 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.18 yuan per catty last week [46][53]. - **Deep - processing - Corn Starch Downstream Consumption**: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 71.58%, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 66.15%, a week - on - week increase of 3.68%. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 65.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.85%, and the operating rate of boxboard paper was 67.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% [56].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 玉米类市场周报 现货市场偏强支撑 玉米期价继续收涨 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 联系电话：0595-86778969 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货震荡收涨。主力2603合约收盘价为2300元/吨，较上周+19元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美玉米供需格局较为宽松，继续牵制国际玉米市场价格。国内方面，东北产区截止1月 20日中储粮储备玉米累计销售成交量已近87万吨，随着拍卖底价下调，成交率大幅提升，市场看 涨预期有所收敛，加之随着年关临近，基层售粮主体基于变现需求，售粮心态已出现松动迹象， 深加工企业收购价格偏高，带动潮粮销售进度加快。深加工企业整体库存同比略低，春节前仍存 在一定备货需求，对价格仍有较强支撑作用。华北黄淮产区雨雪天气继续缩减，随着天气转好物 流运输陆续恢复，贸易商为缓和资金压力，也有意销售变现，整体购销活跃度有 ...

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现货矛盾仍存，短期区间震荡 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-19 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:现货矛盾仍存，短期区间震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）目前基层售粮进度已超过五成，东北售粮进度同比偏快，今年过年较迟，年前售粮窗口期相对较长，农户挺价情绪仍存；（2）25/26年度种植成本继 续下降，东北、西北增产，华北减产，全国整体维持丰产预期。 | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年11月，全国工业饲料产量2873万吨，环比减少1.2%，同比增长2.7%，饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为43.8%； （2）生猪存栏高位，产能去化尚不明显，支撑短期饲用需求，生猪养殖已步入亏损，产能调节和政策调控预期 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Corn Rebounds and Rises Further, Downstream Continues to Increase Inventory" [2] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Author: Chen Chunlei [2] - Affiliation: Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [2] Group 2: Market Performance - Corn Futures: The main corn 2603 contract continued to rebound, reaching a high of 2305, a new high in nearly a year. The spot price slightly increased, with the Pingcang price in Bayuquan rising from 2310 yuan/ton to around 2330 yuan/ton and the arrival price in Shekou Port rising from 2450 yuan/ton to around 2460 yuan/ton. The corn basis weakened, and the futures discount narrowed [3]. - Starch Futures: The main starch 2603 contract oscillated and rebounded. The starch price remained stable, with the price of Weifang Jinyu corn starch at 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [3]. Group 3: Supply Analysis - New Grain Sales: The sales progress of new grain slowed down, with regional differentiation. As of January 15, the national grain sales progress was 53%, the same as the previous year. Northeast China was 52%, 3% faster than the previous year; North China was 48%, 3% slower than the previous year; and Northwest China was 68%, 1% slower than the previous year. China Grain Reserves Corporation conducted public bidding and procurement, with a significant amount of supply. As of January 16, 602,000 tons had been put on the market, and 479,000 tons were sold. In addition, import auctions also supplemented the market. The tight supply of high - quality grain in North China still supported prices [3]. - Port Inventories: As of January 9, the corn inventory in northern ports was 1.332 million tons, decreasing compared to the previous period and at a low level in recent years. The weekly shipments were 695,000 tons, maintaining a relatively high level. The domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 497,000 tons, continuing to increase, while the foreign trade corn inventory was 264,000 tons, decreasing [4]. - Substitute and Import: Due to the delayed wheat sowing and poor seedling conditions, wheat production may decrease. The price difference between wheat and corn remained high, making substitution unfeasible. China's corn imports increased significantly after October last year and may continue to rise to adjust the domestic corn supply - demand balance [4]. - International Market: The US corn price dropped sharply. The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report increased the US corn production to a record high due to increased yields and harvest areas, leading to a nearly 10% increase in ending stocks and a 44% increase compared to the previous year. The South American corn production remained unchanged, and the global corn ending stocks increased by 4.2%, but were still 1.29% lower than the previous year [4]. Group 4: Demand Analysis - Feed Demand: Feed demand was relatively strong. Pig prices rebounded, and pig farming became profitable again. As of January 16, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was 48.35 yuan per head, turning from loss to profit, and the profit from self - breeding and self - fattening was 7.39 yuan per head, also turning profitable. The inventory of sow - producing sows continued to decline. In October, the national inventory of sow - producing sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month, with an increasing reduction rate. In November, large - scale farms reduced the inventory of sow - producing sows, the sales of piglets decreased, but the inventory of commercial pigs increased. It was difficult for the pig inventory to decline in the fourth quarter. In the poultry sector, egg prices rebounded, and the losses in poultry farming narrowed. In December, the sales of chicken chicks increased, and the culling of old hens continued to increase to a high level in recent years. The inventory of laying hens in December may have slightly decreased again. As the Spring Festival approached, the price increase of livestock and poultry products may lead to upstream profits and slow down the process of capacity reduction, and feed demand may remain strong [5]. - Deep - processing Demand: Deep - processing demand was insufficient. Most starch processing enterprises had losses in processing profits, and the operating rate continued to decline. As of January 16, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 57.65%, continuing to decline. The starch inventory was 1.1 million tons, continuing to decrease. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to suffer losses, and the operating rate dropped to 58.02%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises increased, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises was relatively strong [5]. Group 5: Inventory Analysis - Downstream Inventories: Downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises continued to increase their corn inventories. As of January 16, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.59 million tons, continuing to increase but at a low level in recent years, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 31.15 days, increasing [4]. Group 6: Outlook and Suggestions - Market Outlook: The sales of new grain slowed down, and the expectation of tight supply of high - quality grain still supported prices. Public bidding and auctions supplemented the market. Downstream enterprises continued to replenish inventory, and demand was differentiated. The report was still optimistic about corn prices in the first half of the year [5]. - Suggestions: Grain - using enterprises were advised to purchase spot according to demand and maintain a safe reserve. Traders were advised to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [5]

Report Overview - The report is a corn starch daily report dated January 15, 2026, covering data, market analysis, trading strategies, and related charts [1]. 1. Data Futures Market - **Corn Futures**: C2601 closed at 2282, down 18 (-0.79%); C2605 at 2283, up 8 (0.35%); C2509 at 2301, up 6 (0.26%) [1]. - **Corn Starch Futures**: CS2601 at 2540, up 1 (0.04%); CS2605 at 2597, up 17 (0.65%); CS2509 at 2625, up 11 (0.42%) [1]. Spot Market and Basis - **Corn Spot**: Prices ranged from 2150 in Qinggang to 2460 in Guangdong ports, with price changes from -10 to 20 [1]. - **Corn Starch Spot**: Prices were between 2700 - 2900, with only Hengren工贸 up 30 [1]. Spreads - **Corn Inter - delivery Spreads**: C01 - C05 was -1, down 26; C05 - C09 was -18, up 2; C09 - C01 was 19, up 24 [1]. - **Corn Starch Inter - delivery Spreads**: CS01 - CS05 was -57, down 16; CS05 - CS09 was -28, up 6; CS09 - CS01 was 85, up 10 [1]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: CS09 - C09 was 324, up 5; CS01 - C01 was 258, up 19; CS05 - C05 was 314, up 9 [1]. 2. Market Analysis Corn - The US corn report significantly increased production, but global corn supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downside of US corn. Import profit of foreign corn has risen, with the February Brazilian import price at 2127 yuan [3]. - Northern port flat - price declined, around 2335 yuan. Northeast corn was strong, while North China's supply increased and prices were stable, narrowing the price gap between the two regions [3][5]. - Wheat and corn auctions continued. Wheat prices in North China were stable around 2490 yuan/ton, and the price gap between wheat and corn remained large, making corn more cost - effective [5]. - Domestic breeding demand was stable, downstream feed enterprises' inventories increased, and short - term corn prices were relatively stable. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory building [5]. Corn Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increased, and Shandong corn prices were stable. Corn starch prices in Shandong were around 2760 yuan, and Northeast prices were stable [6]. - This week, corn starch inventory decreased to 1.1 million tons, down 25,000 tons from last week, with a monthly decline of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 21.5% [6]. - Starch prices depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. By - product prices were strong, higher than last year, and the spot price gap between corn and starch was low. Due to strong corn prices, starch prices were also strong, but enterprise profitability declined [6]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: 03 US corn has support at 430 cents/bushel. Short 03 corn lightly and short 03 starch on rallies [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Start reverse arbitrage on 35 starch [9]. 4. Corn Options - The option strategy is short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [10]. 5. Related Charts - The report includes charts of North Port corn flat - price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spreads, corn starch 5 - 9 spreads, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spreads [13][14][18].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the corn industry in the short - term is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot contradictions in the corn market still exist, with the grain - selling progress slowing down but still faster year - on - year. Port inventories are low, and there is a certain restocking demand among middle and downstream players before the festival. The short - term spot price remains relatively firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Neutral. The current grass - roots grain - selling progress is nearly half, with the progress slowing down but still faster year - on - year. The 2025/2026 planting cost continues to decline, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, and the overall national production is expected to be abundant [4] - **Demand**: Slightly bullish. In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 43.8%. The high pig inventory supports short - term feed demand, but the current breeding profit is in the red. Feed enterprises maintain safety stocks and replenish stocks in a rolling manner. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs but are cautious. Traders have not yet started large - scale strategic inventory - building and have restocking needs [4] - **Inventory**: Bullish. Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at northern ports is slow, and the inventory is still at a low level, mostly contract - order inventory. The grain inventory at southern ports is also at a low level. Feed enterprises' inventory and deep - processing corn inventory are both at low levels [4] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is neutral, and the C03 - C05 spread favors positive arbitrage [4] - **Profit**: Bearish. Pig and egg - poultry breeding profits are in the red, and the processing profits of deep - processed starch and alcohol are also in the red [4] - **Valuation**: Neutral. From the perspective of planting cost, the corn futures valuation is relatively high; from the perspective of absolute price, the corn futures valuation is relatively low [4] - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. The release of policy grains such as reserve corn, imported corn, and aged wheat has increased [4] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oscillating. The short - term spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: oscillating; Arbitrage: C03 - C05 positive arbitrage [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents the basis trend of the corn main contract, the prices at various ports such as Jinzhou Port and Shekou Port, the market average prices in Heilongjiang and Shandong, the futures contract positions of different months (such as C01, C03, C05, C09), and the spreads between different contracts (such as C03 - C05, C05 - C09) through charts [6][8][12][18] 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain - selling Progress**: The report shows the grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China through charts, and currently the channel supply has decreased [22][24] - **Port and Inventory Data**: Northern port inventory and southern port grain inventory are at low levels. It also presents data on feed enterprises' inventory days, feed monthly production, and deep - processing enterprises' corn inventory and consumption [40][46][69] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: Pig prices have slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious. The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented, as well as relevant data such as the number of laying hens and the number of parent - stock broilers in production [54][58][64] - **Deep - processing Industry**: The deep - processing corn consumption has seasonally rebounded, but the deep - processing corn inventory is at a low level. The starch processing profit has worsened, and the starch inventory is at a high level. Alcohol production has declined, and the processing profit has decreased. The demand for starch in the beverage industry is poor, while the papermaking start - up rate is high but the profit has declined. Wheat prices have slightly increased, and the flour demand is weak [67][75][87][105] - **Futures Registration**: The report shows the number of corn futures registered warehouse receipts through a chart [113] 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The 2025/2026 corn inventory - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries have been lowered, and it presents the global corn production and its distribution, as well as the inventory - to - consumption ratios of the US and other major exporting countries [118][122][123] - **Export Situation**: US corn export sales have performed well, and it presents the export sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China of US corn through charts [125][126][130]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's December report increased US corn exports, but the production is at a high level. In the short term, US corn will fluctuate slightly stronger. The support of the US corn 03 contract at 430 cents per bushel is relatively strong. With the 11% tariff for imported US corn and 12% for sorghum in China, importing US corn has become profitable, and importing from Brazil offers higher profits [4]. - Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, leading to an increase in corn supply. Port inventories remain low, and port prices are stable. It is expected that there will be another wave of selling pressure for Northeast corn in mid - January. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn is increasing, but downstream demand for replenishment is driving a relative stability in Northeast corn prices. In North China, the increase in corn supply has led to a continuous decline in spot prices. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China remains high, and it is expected that corn supply will increase next week. In the short term, the supply at the northern ports will increase, and the purchase price will remain stable before the Spring Festival. The 03 corn contract will fluctuate at a high level, and the decline of the 07 corn contract is limited [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, while downstream提货 has decreased, leading to an increase in starch inventory, which remains at a high level. As corn spot prices are weak, starch spot prices are also weakening. The profits of North China starch factories have declined, and the operating rate of starch enterprises will continue to rise. As corn prices decline, there is still room for starch spot prices to fall. It is expected that the 03 corn starch contract will follow the high - level fluctuations of corn [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Situation**: US corn exports are increasing, and the 03 contract has strong support at 430 cents per bushel. In China, corn supply in the Northeast and North China is increasing, and there will be a peak selling season in mid - January. Corn spot prices still have room to fall. In the short term, corn prices will continue to decline, and the 03 contract has limited room for rebound [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral trading: Consider buying US corn 03 below 430 cents per bushel, making long - term purchases of 07 corn below 2240 yuan, and short - term shorting of 03 corn [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Consider a cumulative put strategy for 03 corn at high prices [5]. Chapter Two: Core Logic Analysis International Market - **US Corn Supply and Demand** - The USDA's December report shows changes in US corn supply and demand indicators such as planting area, yield, inventory, and consumption in different years. The export volume has been adjusted, and attention should be paid to the January report. Importing US corn and Brazilian corn is currently profitable [9]. - As of January 1, the weekly US corn export inspection was 1.21 million tons, with a cumulative export of 26.81 million tons. This week, there were no exports to China, with a cumulative export of 0 tons and a proportion of 0%. In November, 560,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to November, 1.85 million tons were imported, compared with 13.32 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - **US Corn Non - commercial Net Long Position and Ethanol Production** - As of December 30, the non - commercial net long position of US corn decreased, and ethanol production also decreased. The US corn 03 contract is oscillating at the bottom, with strong support at 430 cents per bushel [15]. Domestic Market - **Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises** - The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is lower than the same period last year. As of January 8, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 30.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 days and a year - on - year decrease of 6.81% [19]. - Deep - processing consumption has slightly decreased. From January 1 to January 7, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in China consumed 1.3817 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week. Deep - processing inventory has increased, and it is expected to continue rising next week. As of January 7, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 354 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous week and a 40.5% decrease year - on - year [20]. - **Port Inventories** - The corn inventory at northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory at southern ports has increased. As of January 2, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.538 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.889 million tons. The shipping volume from the four ports this week was 593,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 74,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 478,000 tons, an increase of 93,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 294,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 107,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 710,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week; and the total grain inventory was 1.589 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 36,000 tons [23]. - **Grain Sales Progress** - The grain sales progress has accelerated. The overall national grain sales progress (including all 13 provinces) is 50%, a 3% increase from the previous week and a 2% increase year - on - year; the sales progress in 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 48%, a 4% increase from the previous week and a 3% increase year - on - year [26]. - **Starch Market** - The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has decreased. From January 1 to January 7, the national corn processing volume was 627,900 tons, and the starch production was 324,800 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 59.37%, a 0.49% decrease from the previous week [30]. - As North China corn spot prices fall, starch spot prices decline, and by - product prices remain stable, enterprise profits have decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 67 yuan, a decrease of 39 yuan from the previous week, and in Shandong, it was - 6 yuan, a decrease of 3 yuan [30]. - Downstream提货 has decreased, and with the decline in the operating rate, starch inventory has increased. It is expected to continue rising next week. As of January 7, the corn starch inventory was 1.125 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.2% increase, a 2.1% increase from the beginning of the month, and a 25.1% increase year - on - year [30]. - **Substitute Products** - The wheat price in North China is basically around 2,490 yuan per ton, showing a weak trend. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. North China corn is weak, while Northeast corn is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between northern port corn and the 05 corn contract has declined [39]. Chapter Three: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding** - From January 4 to January 8, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 59 yuan per head, a decrease of 3 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 75 yuan per head, an increase of 3 yuan per head from the previous week [43]. - From January 4 to January 8, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 1.13 yuan per chicken, compared with 1.24 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost this week was 3.52 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.42 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.55 yuan per catty last week [49]. - **Deep - processing Downstream Consumption** - The operating rate of starch sugar: The operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup this week was 60.77%, a 6.27% increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 57.1%, a 5.31% increase from the previous week [52]. - The operating rate of paper mills: The operating rate of corrugated paper this week was 65.86%, a 1.63% increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of containerboard was 66.8%, a 1.86% decrease from the previous week [52]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitute Products** - The report shows the price trends of corn and substitute products such as wheat, sorghum, and their price differences, as well as the price differences between different corn and starch contracts [53][57][61].

Core Viewpoint - The corn futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight weekly increase, while external factors such as import plans from Algeria and export estimates from Brazil are influencing the supply dynamics [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the main corn futures contract closed at 2226 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.82% [1]. - The weekly trading range for corn futures was between 2217 CNY/ton and 2256 CNY/ton, with a reduction in open interest by 5461 contracts compared to the previous week [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Algeria's Ministry of Agriculture plans to import 1.15 million tons of feed corn by the end of February 2026 to address domestic supply shortages and stabilize the market [2]. - Brazil's corn export volume for December is projected at 3.52 million tons, a significant decrease from the previous week's estimate of 6.35 million tons [2]. - As of December 27, Brazil's first corn planting rate reached 85.6%, up from 82% the previous week and 80.8% the same time last year [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Guodu Futures notes that the quality of new grain in North China has been affected, leading to increased purchases of Northeast grain by traders and a decline in port inventories, which supports corn prices [4]. - Donghai Futures indicates that the national corn market price is stable with slight strength, while the futures market rebound provides some support to market conditions [4]. - The current market is characterized by a fierce tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with no clear directional guidance from the fundamentals, suggesting a phase of oscillation in prices [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - As of December 20, Brazil's corn planting rate reached 82%, up from 77.5% the previous week and slightly higher than last year's 77.9% [1] - Brazil's cumulative corn shipments for December amounted to 4.4256 million tons, an increase from 4.2659 million tons in December of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 295,000 tons, representing a 45.24% increase compared to last December [1] - The U.S. corn export inspection volume for the week ending December 18 was 1,744,088 tons, up from a revised 1,604,831 tons the previous week, with a cumulative total of 24,267,114 tons for the current crop year, compared to 14,481,411 tons in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Guodu Futures, the recent rebound in corn prices was driven by the quality issues in new grain from North China, leading traders and downstream enterprises to actively purchase Northeast grain, while port inventories declined [2] - Everbright Futures noted that while prices in Northeast production areas are relatively high, transaction activity is subdued, with a balanced supply-demand situation and slow selling progress among farmers compared to last year [3] - The overall demand from downstream enterprises remains weak, with many focusing on fulfilling previous orders rather than signing new contracts, and some companies are beginning to prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's December report was bullish for US corn, but high production levels suggest that the US corn market will likely remain in a strong, volatile range [4][7]. - In the domestic market, North - East Chinese corn is relatively strong due to farmers' reluctance to sell, while North - China corn has seen an increase in supply and stable prices. The price difference between North - East and North - China corn has narrowed. Corn futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - Corn starch prices are mainly influenced by corn prices and downstream inventory - building. With rising inventory and relatively stable corn prices, the profitability of starch enterprises has declined. The 03 starch futures contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2220, down 1 (-0.05%); C2605 closed at 2227, down 1 (-0.04%); C2509 closed at 2257, unchanged. For starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2497, down 5 (-0.20%); CS2605 closed at 2532, down 7 (-0.28%); CS2509 closed at 2587, down 3 (-0.12%)[2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions ranged from 2080 - 2430 yuan/ton. Starch spot prices were between 2700 - 2890 yuan/ton. Corn basis values varied from - 177 to 173 yuan/ton, and starch basis values were between 168 - 358 yuan/ton[2]. - **Spreads**: Corn inter - delivery spreads such as C01 - C05 was - 7 (unchanged), C05 - C09 was - 30 (down 1). Starch inter - delivery spreads like CS01 - CS05 was - 35 (up 2), CS05 - CS09 was - 55 (down 4). Cross - variety spreads included CS09 - C09 at 330 (down 3), CS01 - C01 at 277 (down 4), CS05 - C05 at 305 (down 6)[2]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: US corn exports were raised and stocks were lowered in the USDA's December report, but production remained high. Import profits for foreign corn decreased. In the domestic market, North - East corn was strong, while North - China corn supply increased. The price difference with North - China wheat was large, and corn had cost - effectiveness. The short - term outlook for corn spot prices was relatively strong, but there were concerns about seasonal selling pressure in late December and downstream inventory - building [4][5]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks delivering to Shandong deep - processing plants increased. Corn starch inventory rose to 107.4 million tons this week, up 2.5 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. Starch prices depended on corn prices and downstream inventory - building. With strong by - product prices, the profitability of starch enterprises declined. The 03 starch futures contract was expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, 03 US corn had support at 430 cents per bushel, and it was recommended to go long on 07 corn at low prices with a light position. For arbitrage, it was advised to wait and see. For options, a short - term put - accumulation strategy with rolling operations was suggested [8][9][10]. 3.3 Corn Options - On December 22, 2025, the C2605 - P - 2240.DCE option had an underlying price of 2,227 and a closing price of 51.00, with a change of - 0.5. The C2603 - P - 2200.DCE option had an underlying price of 2,192 and a closing price of 37.00, with a change of 1.5 [12]. 3.4 Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams showing various aspects of corn and corn - starch prices such as regional corn spot prices, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spreads, corn - starch 1 - 5 spreads, corn - starch 01 contract basis, and corn - starch 01 contract spreads [14][16][18].