只要12月合约维持在上周低点4.2625美元上方，跌势可能受限;但上周4.4275美元的双顶高点仍可能是价格峰值。 Barchart数据显示，周三当月全国现金玉米均价下跌近7美分至3.9125美元。周三现金均价较12月期货低约38.5美分，较上周39.25美分的价差有所 收窄。 尽管本周价格回落，玉米市场仍因创纪录的出口需求保持看涨态势。分析师皮尔森指出："玉米是美国的王牌，我们正引领行业。" 12月玉米期货隔夜尾盘上涨0.5美分至4.3025美元，此前周三下跌7美分至4.2975美元，创11月10日以来最低收盘价。3月合约上涨1美分至4.4250美 元，周三曾下跌8美分至四周收盘低点。 玉米期货隔夜窄幅震荡，延续横盘格局。若大豆价格未再现上涨，该格局或将持续至下周感恩节假期。周三12月合约收盘跌破200日简单移动平 均线(当前位于4.35美元)，同时跌破10日及20日均线(分别为4.3275美元和4.3175美元)。 玉米期货仍获得坚实支撑：现货市场走强、出口旺盛及收割压力缓解。美国农业部本周早些时候报告称，截至上周日收割进度达91%，低于上年 同期的98%，也略低于五年均值94%。 但价格上行空间可能受限 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Feed and Aquaculture Daily Report - Research Areas: Pig, Corn and Starch, Egg Pig Market Core View - Policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of pigs. Strategically, a long - term bullish view can be taken, but in the short - to medium - term, fundamentals prevail. Recently, the second - fattening replenishment has weakened, and the near - term slaughter pressure persists, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a stronger trend [3] Price Information - **Spot Prices**: The national average spot price of pigs is 11.54 yuan, up 0.07 yuan (0.61%). Prices in different regions such as Henan, Hunan, etc., also show varying degrees of increase [4] - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different pig futures contracts show mixed trends. For example, the price of the Pig 01 contract is 11,560 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.22%), while the Pig 03 contract is 11,350 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%) [5] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of different pig futures contracts and between regions and contracts show significant fluctuations. For example, the LH01 - 03 spread is 180 yuan, down 45 yuan (- 20%) [10] Corn and Starch Market Core View - The spot market of corn was generally stable, with individual enterprises raising prices. After the recent continuous rebound of corn prices, the supply - side's reluctance to sell has eased, and the arrival volume in Shandong has increased. The downstream's willingness to purchase at high prices has decreased, and the price has entered a short - term balance. The futures market showed a slight correction. The starch market was stable, and the futures market followed the decline of corn and fell more than corn [14] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different corn and corn starch futures contracts all showed increases. For example, the price of the Corn 01 contract is 2,175 yuan, up 7 yuan (0.32%), and the Corn Starch 01 contract is 2,480 yuan, up 13 yuan (0.53%) [15] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different ports and the basis of corn and corn starch in different regions also showed certain changes. For example, the price of corn in Shekou Port is 2,370 yuan, up 10 yuan, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract is 62 yuan, up 14 yuan [19] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of corn and corn starch showed different trends. For example, the Corn 1 - 5 month - to - month spread is - 73 yuan, down 12 yuan [22] - **US Corn**: The prices of CBOT corn, soybeans, and wheat showed slight fluctuations. The US Gulf and West Coast's duty - paid prices decreased, and there were corresponding import profits [27] Egg Market Core View - In the long - term, the egg - laying hen production capacity is still in excess, and there is significant price pressure. In the short - term, due to the rapid decline of egg prices after the festival, some farmers have culled or molted hens. Overall, the production capacity is at a high level but is approaching an inflection point, and the general trend is still weak [30] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different egg futures contracts showed mixed trends. The Egg 01 contract is 3,180 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.16%), and the Egg 09 contract is 3,872 yuan, up 13 yuan (0.34%) [31] - **Spot Prices**: The prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas, as well as different types of eggs, all showed declines. For example, the price of eggs in the main production areas is 2.86 yuan, down 0.02 yuan (- 0.69%) [32] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of different egg futures contracts and between the main production areas and the main contract showed significant fluctuations. For example, the Egg 1 - 5 spread is - 288 yuan, down 18 yuan (6.67%) [42]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: The harvest of US corn is almost finished, leading to high short - term supply pressure. Analysts expect the USDA's upcoming report to lower the US corn yield estimate. The recent rise in US soybeans and wheat prices provides external support to US corn prices. In the domestic market, cold weather in the Northeast and North China has increased farmers' reluctance to sell, reducing the available grain supply and causing a slight increase in enterprise purchase prices. The corn market has shown a slightly stronger trend recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - **Starch**: With the increasing supply of new - season corn, the industry's operating rate has continued to rise, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. The starch market has oscillated and risen in tandem with the corn market recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,507 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) data not fully presented. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) decreased by 5,839 hands, and corn starch futures open interest (active contract) decreased by 71 hands. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch decreased by 5,1472 hands, and that of corn decreased by 120,537 hands. - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 2999 hands, and those of corn starch are 69,337 hands [2]. Outer - Plate Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 435.5 cents per bushel, and the total open interest is 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn decreased by 15,017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2,259.8 yuan/ton, down 4.98 yuan/ton. The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,510 yuan/ton, 2,750 yuan/ton, and 2,680 yuan/ton respectively. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2,033.17 yuan/ton, down 2.77 yuan/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 20 yuan/ton, and that of the corn main contract is - 4.3 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11 million hectares, 295 million hectares, etc. The predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 32 million tons respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 74.2 million tons, 122 million tons, and 279.5 million tons respectively. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 113.3 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from last week. - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3,128.7 million tons. The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 36 yuan/ton, 105 yuan/ton, and 38 yuan/ton respectively. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 66.79%, down 1.63 percentage points, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 63.48%, up 0.71 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.33%, down 0.26 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.81%, down 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of corn is 7.99%, up 1.43 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending November 6, 2025, to be between 1 million and 2 million tons. - Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintains his forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 corn output at 14 million tons with a neutral outlook [2]. Key Points of Concern Follow the weekly corn consumption data and the operating and inventory conditions of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].

1. Overall Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and may fall further, with potential support at 4000 - 4100 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures are also under pressure, expected to test 8500 - 8600 yuan for support. Overall, a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [1]. - Soybean oil: There are both bullish and bearish factors. The overall supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, but due to factors such as high Brazilian soybean prices and potential factory shutdowns, the spot basis quote has limited short - term fluctuation space [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: Currently, the supply is abundant, and the price is in a downward channel. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the new - season cost price of 2050 yuan. In the long - term, it will be in a tight - balance pattern with policy support [2]. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2601 has increased slightly, and the market situation is affected by the corn market [2]. 2.3 Meal Products - Meal products: The expectation of China purchasing US soybeans has increased, and the domestic cost support remains. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and poor crushing margins, the domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong [5]. 2.4 Live Pigs - Live pigs: The market supply is relatively loose, and the pig price has weakened. There may be short - term support from secondary fattening, but there will be increased supply pressure in November and December, and the futures market is following the spot market down [7]. 2.5 Sugar - Sugar: The expected increase in supply surplus and weak energy prices have led to a weakening of raw sugar prices. Domestic sugar prices are also under pressure but have cost support at around 5400 yuan, and the market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [10]. 2.6 Cotton - Cotton: The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [12]. 2.7 Eggs - Eggs: The short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, the price may gradually rise, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8400 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8128 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 0.49%); the basis was 272 yuan, up 40 yuan (17.24%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Guangdong was 8700 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.57%); the futures price of P2601 was 8764 yuan, down 64 yuan (- 0.72%); the basis was - 64 yuan, up 14 yuan (17.95%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.51%); the futures price of O1601 was 9422 yuan, down 107 yuan (- 1.12%); the basis was 328 yuan, up 57 yuan (21.03%) [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On November 3, the flat - hatch price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port was 2130 yuan, up 19 yuan (0.90%); the basis was 0 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 100.00%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 97 yuan, up 5 yuan (4.90%) [2]. - **Corn starch**: On November 3, the price of corn starch 2601 was 2440 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.87%); the basis was 70 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 23.08%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.70%) [2]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3020 yuan, up 50 yuan (1.68%); the futures price of M2601 was 3021 yuan, up 27 yuan (0.90%); the basis was - 1 yuan, up 23 yuan (95.83%) [5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2470 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.40%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2388 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 82 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.80%) [5]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of live pigs 2605 was 11895 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of live pigs 2601 was 11815 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 0.55%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 300.00%) [7]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, with the price in Henan at 12500 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price in Shandong at 12550 yuan, unchanged; etc [7]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of sugar 2601 was 5483 yuan, up 11 yuan (0.20%); the price of sugar 2605 was 5413 yuan, up 6 yuan (0.11%); the 1 - 5 spread was 70 yuan, up 5 yuan (7.69%) [10]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.17%); the Nanning basis was 337 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 1.75%); the Kunming basis was 297 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 5.11%) [10]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of cotton 2605 was 13605 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13595 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 5 - 1 spread was 10 yuan, unchanged [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14674 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.11%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14860 yuan, up 17 yuan (0.11%); the 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1069 yuan, up 21 yuan (2.00%) [12]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3146 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 0.35%); the price of the egg 01 - contract was 3318 yuan, down 35 yuan (- 1.04%); the basis was - 203 yuan, up 21 yuan (9.39%); the 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, up 24 yuan (12.24%) [14]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.80 yuan, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled hen price was 4.11 yuan, down 0.18 yuan (- 4.20%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.35, up 0.04 (1.73%); the breeding profit was - 26.10 yuan, up 2.61 yuan (9.09%) [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to remain weakly volatile, with a chance of a short - term rebound in the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range. Dalian palm oil futures may follow the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil. Domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish, and the 1 - month contract of Dalian soybean oil may test the 8000 - yuan support and may break it [1]. Meal Products - Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, the cost - side support is strengthening. The trend of domestic soybean meal is expected to be bullish as it is difficult to source cheap soybeans in the near term [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and the market supply is relatively loose. Pig prices have weakened from a strong position. In the short term, prices may not fall significantly, but there will be an increase in the number of pigs for sale in November and December, and risks should be monitored around the Winter Solstice [4]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and raw sugar prices will remain weakly volatile. Domestic sugar prices have limited downward momentum as they approach the production cost, and the current bottom - shock pattern may continue [9]. Cotton - The downstream textile enterprises' demand for cotton is resilient, and the rising cost of new cotton provides support. However, cotton prices may face hedging pressure, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. Corn - Due to sufficient grain sources in the Northeast and the behavior of farmers in North China, the overall corn price is stable with limited upside. With the supply pressure remaining, the futures market will maintain a low - level shock in the short term [11]. Eggs - Egg supply is sufficient, and demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize, with overall pressure [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8400 yuan, the Y2601 futures price is 8168 yuan, and the basis is 232 yuan. The market is affected by the outcome of the Sino - US summit, and there is a risk of the 1 - month contract testing the 8000 - yuan support [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8750 yuan. The BMD crude palm oil futures are weakly volatile, and Dalian palm oil may follow the downward trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan, and the OI601 futures price is 9529 yuan [1]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2970 yuan, the M2601 futures price is 2994 yuan, and the basis is - 24 yuan. The cost - side support is strengthening, and the trend is expected to be bullish [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2480 yuan, the RM2601 futures price is 2401 yuan, and the basis is 79 yuan [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans is 3900 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 1 is 4103 yuan, and the basis is - 203 yuan. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3940 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 2 is 3704 yuan, and the basis is 236 yuan [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The 2605 contract price is 11900 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 11880 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 20 yuan [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan and other regions have different degrees of decline or stability [4]. Sugar - **Futures**: The 2601 contract price is 5472 yuan/ton, the 2605 contract price is 5407 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.25 cents/lb [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning is 5720 yuan/ton, and the basis is 343 yuan [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The 2605 contract price is 13610 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 13600 yuan/ton, and the ICE US cotton main contract is 65.09 cents/lb [10]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 14658 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B is 14843 yuan/ton [10]. Corn - **Corn**: The 2601 contract price is 2111 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2120 yuan/ton, and the basis is 9 yuan [11]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2601 contract price is 2419 yuan/ton, the Changchun spot price is not provided, and the Weifang spot price is 2750 yuan/ton [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The December contract price is 3157 yuan/500KG, the January contract price is 3353 yuan/500KG, and the 12 - 01 spread is - 196 yuan [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price is 2.93 yuan/T, and the basis is - 224 yuan/500KG [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - In the corn market, the good condition of US corn and the easing of Sino - US trade relations have raised concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, the sales of traders in the Northeast have slowed, some processing enterprises have tight inventories and strong restocking intentions, and the purchase price is relatively strong. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the wheat harvest has reduced the market's circulating grain sources, and the purchase price of processing enterprises has been raised. Supported by the wheat purchase at the minimum price, the recent corn futures price has risen significantly, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - In the corn starch market, due to the short - term supply shortage of raw corn in North China and continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate has dropped to a new low this year. With reduced supply pressure and strong corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, and the industry inventory has slightly declined. The starch market has shown a strong and volatile trend following the corn market, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2710 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2372 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 130 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (7 - 9) is - 66 yuan/ton; the main contract CS - C spread is 380 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Futures positions: the positions of active contracts of yellow corn are 762,225 hands, down 61,720 hands; those of corn starch are 182,540 hands, down 7,636 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of corn are - 128,870 hands, down 19,732 hands; those of corn starch are - 11,031 hands, down 603 hands [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: there are 216,285 hands of yellow corn, down 210 hands; 24,237 hands of corn starch, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 436.5 cents/bushel, down 2.5 cents; CBOT corn total positions (weekly) are 1,669,150 contracts, up 14,336 contracts; non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 81,059 contracts, down 60,726 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2406.27 yuan/ton, up 5.09 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The flat - hatch price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1930.25 yuan/ton, up 2.44 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 34.27 yuan, up 7.09 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 10 yuan, down 1 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 416 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 377.63 million hectares, unchanged; the predicted output is 126 million tons, unchanged; in Brazil, the sown area is 33.55 million hectares, unchanged, and the output is 22.3 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina, the sown area is 50 million hectares, unchanged, and the output is 6.4 million tons, unchanged; in China, the sown area is 294.92 million hectares, unchanged, and the output is 44.74 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 26.8 million tons, unchanged; the deep - processed corn inventory (weekly) is 465.4 million tons, up 12.7 million tons; the corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 115 million tons, down 21.7 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 18 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 23,720 tons, up 3,370 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 103 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; in Hebei is - 71 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; in Jilin is - 96 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 49.92%, up 5.01%; the starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 48.71%, down 3.07% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn (daily) is 6.87%, down 0.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.46%, down 0.11% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of corn (daily) is 9.58%, down 0.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.58%, down 0.98% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ANEC predicts that the Brazilian corn export volume in June 2025 will increase to 923,400 tons, higher than the previous estimate but 6% lower than that in June last year [2]. - Analysts expect the ending inventory of US corn in the 2024/25 season to be adjusted down to 1.392 billion bushels, slightly lower than the USDA's May forecast [2]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 71%, higher than the market expectation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of the pig market continues to put pressure on pig prices, but the decline in the first quarter was weaker than expected. The second quarter will continue to focus on supply pressure, and there is a risk of compression in pig prices and breeding profits [3][4]. - Policy support for the corn market is nearing its end, and in the fourth quarter, it will be tested whether downstream consumption can support prices [5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the global oilseed and fat market first rose and then fell, with the domestic market outperforming the international market. The second quarter will continue to be troubled by trade uncertainties, and attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents First Part: Factors Affecting the Pig Market in the Second Quarter - Pig prices in the first quarter were stronger than expected, but supply pressure still exists. The terminal demand entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and pig prices oscillated at a low level [3][4]. - Affected by the change in the mentality of the breeding side, the price of piglets first rose, then fell, and then rose again in the first quarter [3]. - The inventory of breeding sows decreased for two consecutive months. If this trend continues, the supply pressure in the second half of the year will be substantially improved [3]. - In the first quarter, the slaughter weight of pigs first decreased and then increased. The import volume of pork decreased as domestic pig prices were at a low level [3][4]. - The breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising decreased, while that of purchasing piglets increased. The slaughter opening rate was higher than the same period last year, but it was not driven by the increase in terminal demand [4]. - In the futures market, pig prices stabilized and rebounded in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply pressure of increased inventory will continue to affect spot pig prices and long - term trading sentiment [4]. Second Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Corn Market - From January to March, the prices of US wheat and corn first rose and then fell. Affected by weather, policy, and other factors, the CBOT grain futures prices declined jointly [5]. - The spot price of domestic corn rose with the futures price. By the end of March, the average domestic corn spot price increased by 163 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of January. After mid - March, due to multiple negative factors, the futures and spot prices of corn fell back [5]. - The 5 - month contract of corn oscillated repeatedly at the 2300 - yuan integer mark, and the market was worried about the lack of upward space in the future. Pay attention to the price performance of the 5 - month corn futures price at the previous support level of 2260 [6]. - The supply of new - season corn is expected to increase, and the inventory in the quarterly report at the end of March decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period. The ratio of US soybeans to corn is at a low level, which is conducive to the expansion of corn planting area [15][29][39]. - Affected by policies and other factors, the import of corn and its substitutes decreased in 2025, which increased the consumption of domestic corn. In the second quarter, the problem of limited supply of imported corn and substitutes will still appear periodically [52]. - In early April, the average price of wheat in the main producing areas decreased. The price of wheat followed the rise of corn in March and continued to oscillate weakly in April. The supply of wheat was relatively abundant, and the downstream demand was weak [55]. - In mid - April, the operating rate of the corn starch industry decreased, and the processing in Shandong was in a state of loss. The contradiction in the starch market was prominent, and the support from the demand side was insufficient [56]. Third Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Soybean Meal Market - The global oilseed and fat trade pattern has changed. Brazil supplies soybeans to China, the EU, etc., the US supplies soybeans to other regions, and Canadian rapeseed competes for the US soybean market [105]. - China's pig industry has strong demand for replenishment, which increases the demand for feed. The price is strong in stages, and the supply pressure is postponed [112]. - From January to February 2025, the feed output increased year - on - year, and the consumption of soybean meal also increased [116]. - The inventory of soybeans in China showed an inflection point in April, but the soybean procurement of oil mills from June to September was slow [119]. - The spot basis of soybean meal weakened, and the inter - month spread changed from backwardation to contango [121]. Fourth Part: Outlook for the Future Market - In the second quarter, pay attention to tariffs and weather for the US corn market. The policy support of CGC is nearing its end, and it will be tested whether downstream demand can accept high - priced raw materials [66][68]. - Russia's corn production has decreased, and the toxin content in domestic corn is high. The CBOT corn has emerged from the trough. In the future, Sino - US relations will determine the country of import and the rhythm [70]. - In the first quarter, the price of US corn rebounded to the profit range. The market expects an increase in the sown area of new - season corn, and the area will be confirmed in June [77]. - In the first quarter, the spot price of corn rebounded, and the futures price followed. The basis of the 3 - month and 5 - month contracts returned to normal. In the second quarter, the market will speculate on the sowing and cost changes of new - season grain [84]. - In 2024, the cost of corn planting decreased by 15 - 20%. The market expects the cost of corn planting in the new year to decrease by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [90]. - The by - products of starch rose and fell alternately. In 2024, the spread between starch and corn mainly widened. In 2025, pay attention to starch exports and the substitution of tapioca starch [97]. - In 2024, the supply of corn exceeded demand, and the price declined all the way. In 2025, it remains to be seen whether the strengthening of supply and demand can drive the price to rise continuously [102].