Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the overseas methanol plant operation rate dropped from a high level, but the overall operation level remained relatively high, and the supply pressure was still significant. In August, the pressure of imported methanol arriving at ports further increased. Meanwhile, the Xingxing MTO plant started a one - month maintenance at the end of July, leading to continuous inventory accumulation at ports. - In July, it was the concentrated maintenance period for coal - based methanol plants in the inland areas. In August, some plants in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were still under maintenance, and the operation rate would gradually recover only in late August. The supply in the inland areas was relatively tight. Although it was the seasonal off - peak season for formaldehyde, its operation rate had rebounded from the bottom. The operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid remained resilient, and the demand in the inland areas was also strong. The inventory of inland methanol plants decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market was stronger than the port market. - The production profit of coal - based methanol remained at a relatively high level. In terms of upstream raw materials, due to the seasonal peak of daily consumption and the increase in coking coal prices, the price of steam coal at the Inner Mongolia mine mouth gradually recovered. The coking coal market was also an indicator affecting the subsequent trend of the coal - chemical industry. - The balance sheet showed that the total inventory in August was close to the supply - demand balance, with inventory accumulation at ports and inventory reduction in the inland areas [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Basis Structure - The basis of Taicang Port further weakened, corresponding to the inventory accumulation period at ports. Meanwhile, the MA9 - 1 inter - period spread also continued to weaken. - The basis trends were significantly differentiated. The port basis weakened, while the inland basis rebounded, indicating that the port market was weak and the inland market was strong [17][20]. Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis Overseas Methanol Newly - Added Capacity - In December 2024, the 1.7 - million - ton/year Marubeni 3 plant in Malaysia was put into production. In April 2025, the 1.65 - million - ton/year VenIran apadana Petrochemical Co plant in Iran was put into production, and its operation rate was gradually increasing. In the second half of 2025, the 1.65 - million - ton/year Dena Methanol plant in Iran was expected to be put into production [22]. Overseas Methanol Operation Rate and Forecast - In July, the overseas plant operation rate dropped from a high level. The Iranian busher plant had a short - term maintenance until early August, the ZPC plant reduced its load to 50%, the Marubeni 1 and 2 plants reduced their loads to 50%, and the 3 plant had been under maintenance since late July. The Brunei plant was scheduled for maintenance in late August, with concentrated maintenance in Southeast Asia. In South America, an 880,000 - ton/year plant of Chilean Methanex was still shut down, and the Trinidad plant had been operating stably since July, indicating that the lowest operation rate in South America had passed. The overall overseas operation rate remained at a high level, and the estimated imported methanol arriving at ports in August would further increase to around 1.3 million tons, indicating continued pressure on port arrivals [26]. Methanol Import Profit and Cross - Country Spread - In July, when the overseas operation rate was relatively high, the overseas premium performance was differentiated. Due to concentrated maintenance in Southeast Asia, the Southeast Asia - China spread quickly rebounded and then quickly declined again. The US Gulf - China methanol spread strengthened, while the Rotterdam - China spread weakened. Since there was not much maintenance in Europe and the US, it reflected the difference in demand [36]. Methanol Port Inventory - The port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Jiangsu, the trading distribution center. The inventory in Zhejiang, where MTO plants were located, decreased as MTO plants redirected their shipments to Jiangsu. The inventory in South China ports also accelerated its accumulation [44]. Downstream MTO Plant Operation - The Xingxing MTO plant started a one - month maintenance at the end of July, dragging down the port demand. Attention should be paid to whether the pre - planned load reduction of the Nanjing Chengzhi MTO plant could be implemented [53]. Methanol Regional Spread - Currently, the inland market was strong while the port market was weak, and the port - to - inland return window was largely closed, resulting in a fragmented state between the port and inland markets. In the traditional downstream sector, the unexpectedly high operation rate of MTBE drove the consumption of inland inventory [57]. Inland Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis China's Methanol Newly - Added Capacity - In the non - integrated sector, the pressure of newly - added plant production was not significant. In the first half of the year, only the 1 - million - ton/year Xinjiang Zhongtai plant was put into production in May, and its operation rate was not high. In the second half of the year, the newly - added capacity was limited, mainly green methanol. In 2025, the newly - added capacity was mainly from integrated plants, and all three lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng had been put into production [64][65]. China's Methanol Operation Rate (by Process) - In terms of existing plants, coal - based methanol plants had concentrated maintenance in July, mainly in Shaanxi. In August, there were still maintenance plans in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, and the operation rate would gradually recover only at the end of August. The production profit of coal - based methanol remained at a relatively high level. In terms of upstream raw materials, due to the seasonal peak of daily consumption and the increase in coking coal prices, the price of steam coal at the Inner Mongolia mine mouth gradually recovered. The coking coal market was also an indicator affecting the subsequent trend of the coal - chemical industry [68]. Methanol Inland Inventory and Traditional Downstream Operation - Against the background of concentrated maintenance of coal - based methanol plants, the inland factory inventory remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period, indicating that the inland market was stronger than the port market. - The operation rate of traditional downstream industries declined, corresponding to the off - peak season for formaldehyde. Although it was the seasonal off - peak season for formaldehyde, its operation rate had rebounded from the bottom. The operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid remained resilient, and the demand in the inland areas was also strong. The inventory of inland methanol plants decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market was stronger than the port market [74].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for methanol is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2521.00 CNY/ton and reaching a low of 2397.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 4.00% [1] - The methanol market is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and production costs, with high domestic production and operating rates, as well as increased international methanol operating rates and imports [1] - The overall fundamentals of methanol do not show significant contradictions, suggesting a potential for a range-bound market [1] Group 2 - The coal mining capacity verification policy is pushing coal prices up, which in turn supports methanol prices, although the market remains cautious due to potential overheating [2] - The upward movement in methanol prices is limited by the restart of production facilities, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits [2] - There is a warning regarding potential discrepancies in expectations as the political bureau meeting approaches, advising caution for bullish positions and suggesting a wait-and-see approach for conservative investors [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and it is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol futures oscillated, with the weighted price closing at 2,392 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 0.79% decline from the previous week. The spot price of the port methanol market mostly declined, and the inland market oscillated weakly [6][12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a 3.89% drop from the previous week [13]. - **Downstream Demand**: Overall, it was stable. The overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether remained flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides and formaldehyde decreased [16][17]. - **Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises increased by 0.46 million tons to 356,900 tons, a 1.31% increase; the order backlog decreased by 20,000 tons to 221,200 tons, an 8.29% decrease. The port sample inventory increased by 45,200 tons to 718,900 tons, a 6.71% increase [20][22]. - **Profit**: There was little change last week. Coal - based methanol profitability slightly increased, while coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol performed poorly [24][25]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device restarts exceeds that of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.9193 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 85.17%, an increase from last week [28]. - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry's start - up is expected to rise slightly; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether will remain flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to increase [29]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, with a slight reduction. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [30][31]. - **Overall**: Methanol demand remains weak, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it is likely to oscillate in the short - term [32].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of methanol remain weak. After the geopolitical tension eases, methanol returns to its fundamentals and is likely to continue its weak trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [9][10][35]. Summary by Section 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fluctuated. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price was 2,409 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The spot price of methanol in the port market mostly declined, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2,450 - 2,840 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,420 - 2,470 yuan/ton [14]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, China's methanol production was 1,987,076 tons, a decrease of 71,020 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 88.18%, a 3.45% drop from the previous week. Overall, the loss of production due to maintenance and reduction was greater than the recovery, leading to a decline in capacity utilization [15]. 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products decreased. The average weekly operation rate of the olefin industry continued to decline, with the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 76.05%, a 4.08 - percentage - point drop from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde also decreased [17][19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a 3.14% increase. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a 0.23% increase. The port sample inventory was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a 0.48% increase [22][25]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples weakened. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production narrowed, while the loss of natural - gas - based production slightly increased [28]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, there are more methanol plant overhauls than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol production will be around 1.9162 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be around 85.03%, a decrease from last week [33]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's开工率 will continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether and glacial acetic acid is expected to increase, while that of formaldehyde and chlorides is expected to decrease [34]. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The port inventory is expected to change little [34][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price closed at 2,277 yuan/ton, up 2.48% from the previous week. In the spot market, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The price of inland methanol was generally weak, while the coastal methanol market rebounded but had poor sales after the increase, and the basis declined [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,985,884 tons, an increase of 19,529 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 88.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. Overall, the number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [12] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: As of June 5, 2025, the average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether decreased; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides increased; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde increased slightly [16][18] - **Enterprise Inventory and Orders**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 370,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%; the orders to be delivered were 262,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. Inventory and order trends varied by region [21] - **Port Inventory**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 581,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.13%. Different regions had different inventory changes [27] - **Profit**: Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of Hebei coke oven gas was 88.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 49.57%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based was 12.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83.44%; the average profit of Shandong coal - based was 40.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63.94%; the average profit of southwest natural gas - based was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.42% [30] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device resumptions is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0164 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.47%, an increase from last week [34][35] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry will maintain a high - level operation; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to change little; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to continue to decline [36] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 352,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [36] - **Recommendation**: The fundamentals of methanol are relatively stable, and it may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol remain loose, and it continues to oscillate weakly. The coal mine operating rate in the raw coal aspect has declined slightly. As of June 5th, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos is 66%, and in Yulin it is 44%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin is around 3.8 million tons, with weak demand and a weak pithead price. On the supply side, the operating rate of coal mines in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak, raw coal prices are oscillating, the auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest have stopped falling and stabilized, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 500 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, with continuous loose domestic supply. On the import side, the operating rate of international methanol plants has declined from a high level, the US dollar price has risen slightly, imports remain in a positive spread situation, some plants in Iran have restarted, the non - Iranian operating rate is stable, the external operating rate has increased from a high level, the European and American markets are differentiated, the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed, Iran has loaded 19 in June and has tendered again, non - Iranian transactions are good, and the import volume in June is expected to be 1.35 - 1.4 billion tons. On the demand side, the traditional downstream has entered the off - season with a declining operating rate, while the operating rate of MTO plants has increased. In the inventory aspect, imports are gradually recovering, demand is rigid, imports are in a positive spread situation, port inventories have bottomed out, and the basis is consolidating; inland enterprise inventories have begun to rise. Overall, the international plant operating rate has declined from a high level, some plants in Iran have had short - term shutdowns, the daily output has dropped from 38,000 tons to around 29,000 tons but is still at a high level. The loading volume in Iran in May was 820,000 tons, the import volume in May is expected to be over 1.2 million tons, and the import volume in June will increase significantly to over 1.3 million tons. Downstream demand is stable, ports have started to accumulate inventory as the arrival volume increases. At the same time, as domestic coal prices continue to fall, coal - to - methanol profits have expanded to the highest level in history, the scale of spring maintenance is less than expected, and domestic supply is loose. Currently, the phased external procurement of inland CTO has ended, inland enterprise inventories have bottomed out and started to accumulate, the tight supply situation has been alleviated to some extent, downstream resistance to high prices has led to continuous declines in inland auction prices. However, the MTO operating rate has increased, port demand has increased, bulk commodities are oscillating strongly, methanol will follow the upward trend in the short term, but a bearish view should be taken in the medium - to - long - term, and short - selling on dips is not recommended [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: The raw coal supply presents a situation of declining operating rate and weak demand, with prices oscillating. The domestic methanol supply is loose, with high - level stable operating rates and expanding coal - to - methanol profits. The import situation shows a decline in the international operating rate, a slight increase in prices, and an expected increase in import volume. The demand side has a differentiated situation between traditional downstream and MTO. Inventory is accumulating at ports and inland enterprises. Overall, methanol is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term but be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, focus on short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [5]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of June 5th, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load is 74.52%, a 0.19 - percentage - point decline from last week and a 5.09 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year; the operating load in the northwest region is 80.85%, a 0.09 - percentage - point decline from last week and a 5.73 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The national methanol operating load has slightly declined due to the decline in the operating loads in North and Southwest China. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in China is 70.82%, a 0.07 - percentage - point increase from last week [6]. - **Supply - International**: The international (ex - China) methanol production in this cycle is 961,053 tons, a decrease of 7,200 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 65.88%, a 0.49% decline from last week. In the cycle, Iran's ZPC had a temporary shutdown, Kimiya is reported to have restarted today, Apadana is operating at a low load; the North American operating rate has declined; the Egyptian plant has returned to normal operation [6]. - **Supply - Import**: As of 14:00 on June 4th, 2025, when the port inventory data was released, the sample arrival volume of methanol in China in the cycle is 332,900 tons; among them, foreign vessels accounted for 313,500 tons (263,500 tons were visible and 50,000 tons were invisible, with 131,500 tons visible in Jiangsu); domestic vessels supplemented 19,400 tons in the cycle, including 10,500 tons in Jiangsu and 8,900 tons in Guangdong [6]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of June 5th, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 85.15%, a 0.54% increase from last week. Although a plant in Jiangsu slightly reduced its load this week, a plant in Jiangsu gradually increased its load last week, resulting in a slight increase in the overall weekly average capacity utilization rate compared to last week. The national olefin plant operating rate is 86.88%, with the restart of Ningxia Baofeng's second - phase plant and the increase in the load of Shandong Hengtong's plant [6]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 9.52%. During the week, Jiujiang Xinlianxin and Xinxiang Xinlianxin's plants stopped operating, and other plants mostly maintained their previous loads, resulting in a lower overall capacity utilization rate this week. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 77.87%. During this period, Sopu's plant is increasing its load but has not reached full production; Celanese and Longyu's plants are under maintenance; Hubei Qianxin and Jiantao's second - phase plants continue to increase their loads, resulting in a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The formaldehyde operating rate is 51.11%. During the week, Jinyimeng's plant increased its load and is operating normally, and Wende Cheng's plant decreased its load and is operating normally [6]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: In the week of June 3rd, 2025, the weekly signing volume of the sample methanol production enterprises in the northwest region is 61,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous statistical date, a year - on - year decrease of 6.15% [6]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises is 370,500 tons, an increase of 15,500 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 4.38%; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 262,200 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons from the previous period [6]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of June 4th, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China is 581,200 tons, an increase of 58,200 tons. Among them, the inventory in East China has increased by 51,300 tons; the inventory in South China has increased by 6,900 tons [6]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the price of chemical coal in the northwest region has declined again, and the methanol price has fallen. The profit of coal - to - methanol in the Inner Mongolia region is around 620 yuan/ton, and in the northern Shaanxi region it is 560 yuan/ton. In terms of spreads, the port - to - northern line spread is 430 yuan/ton, and the port - to - northern Shandong spread is 170 yuan/ton. MTO losses are stable; the basis is temporarily stable [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang is 2,310 yuan (+90), and the price in the northern line is 1,880 yuan (+10) [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market outlook for methanol has not improved, and it may continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [8][9][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the domestic methanol market continued to have an oversupply situation. The methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price was 2,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous week [6][11]. - In the spot market, the domestic methanol market continued its downward trend. The decline in the inland market was greater than that in the coastal market, and the arbitrage space from the inland to the coastal market reopened. As of May 29, the methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,255 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; in Guangdong, it was 2,285 yuan/ton, down 3.01%; in Ordos North Line, it was 1,931 yuan/ton, down 6.67%; and in Shandong Jining, it was 2,152 yuan/ton, down 5.36% [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, the methanol production in China increased slightly. The production was 1,966,685 tons, an increase of 5,090 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.19%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The 100,000 - ton natural gas - to - methanol plant of Daqing Refining and Chemical was put into operation, and there were no new maintenance plants [12]. - **Downstream Demand**: - The MTO capacity utilization rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased significantly. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.61%, an increase of 15.83 percentage points from the previous week [17]. - The capacity utilization rates of other downstream products such as dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde showed different trends [17][19]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 28, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 355,000 tons, an increase of 18,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.64%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 249,900 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.24% [22]. - The port sample inventory of methanol continued to rise. As of May 28, 2025, the port sample inventory was 523,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65% [27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average profit of domestic methanol samples decreased overall. The average profit of different production methods such as Hebei coke oven gas, Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol, and Shandong coal - to - methanol all declined [30]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the resumption of methanol plants is more than the maintenance, and the production is expected to be about 2,027,700 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 89.90%, an increase from last week [34]. - **Demand**: The olefin enterprises in Shandong and the Northwest regions may increase their loads, and the overall downstream demand is expected to be stable to positive [8][37]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 359,800 tons, a slight increase from last week [38]. - The port inventory is expected to continue to rise due to sufficient expected arrivals of foreign vessels and possible impacts on truck pick - up during the holiday [38]. In conclusion, the market outlook for methanol remains weak, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol weakened marginally, and methanol futures showed a weak performance. This week, the fundamentals are expected to continue weakening, and methanol futures may remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6][10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - By the afternoon close on April 30, methanol weighted closed at 2,263 yuan/ton, down 1.82% from the previous week. In the spot market, the trading atmosphere in the inland methanol market weakened, while the sentiment in the port methanol market improved, and the basis within the month strengthened. The price difference between ports and inland areas slightly widened. As of the end of April, the average price in the northern line of Ordos in the northwest was 2,192 yuan/ton, the average price in Taicang, East China was 2,460 yuan/ton, and the average price in Guangdong, South China was 2,497 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, domestic methanol production increased again. The production was 2,008,705 tons, an increase of 109,720 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.97%, a month - on - month increase of 5.77%. Sichuan Daxing had new maintenance, while several enterprises resumed production [14][16]. 2.2 Demand - As of May 1, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 57.86%, up 1.86 percentage points from the previous week, mainly due to a slight increase in the load of some devices [19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of April 30, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 283,400 tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 8.54%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 249,600 tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 17.53%. The inventory of sample enterprises in various regions showed different trends, with most regions experiencing a decline [22]. - As of April 30, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 537,400 tons, an increase of 74,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 16.02%. Ports in various regions showed inventory accumulation [28]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of coke oven gas in Hebei was 500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 238.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16.80%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was 320.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 19.00%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was 317.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%; the average profit of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% [31]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - This week, the fundamentals of methanol still lack substantial positive factors. On the supply side, the number of methanol production enterprises resuming production continues to exceed those under maintenance, and the supply pressure gradually increases. On the demand side, as olefins enter the maintenance season, methanol demand may decrease. The arrival volume of methanol this week is sufficient, and port inventory is likely to continue rising, increasing the supply - side pressure due to imports. However, the current downward pressure on methanol is not large, as enterprise inventory continues to decline, and port inventory is still at a low level. From a macro perspective, the US may intend to negotiate with China on the tariff issue, improving macro expectations, but the tariff issue is far from being resolved, and the macro positive factors are limited. Overall, methanol futures may remain weak [10][36][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of methanol this week lack substantial positive factors, and the supply may not continue to shrink while the demand may decline. The port inventory is expected to rise. Although the current downward pressure on methanol is not significant, the fundamentals cannot provide continuous support, so the rebound space of methanol may be limited. The methanol futures are likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol did not change substantially, and the methanol futures fluctuated throughout the week. As of Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol closed at 2,305 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous week [12]. - In the spot market, the domestic methanol market fluctuated last week. The pre - holiday stocking demand of inland downstream supported the market, and the enterprise shipments were smooth. The coastal market had cargo backflow and low foreign vessel arrivals, resulting in significant inventory reduction. As of April 24, the spot prices in different regions had different changes, with some rising and some falling [12]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, China's methanol production decreased to 1,898,985 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60%. The number of maintenance and production cuts was more than that of restarts, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization [15]. 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of April 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of methanol were different. The olefin industry's capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the dimethyl ether's increased, the glacial acetic acid's increased slightly, the chloride's decreased, and the formaldehyde's decreased [18][19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of April 23, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises decreased slightly to 309,800 tons, a decrease of 0.26 million tons or 0.82% from the previous period, and the order backlog increased to 302,700 tons, an increase of 28,300 tons or 10.30% [23]. - As of April 23, 2025, China's methanol port sample inventory decreased significantly to 463,200 tons, a decrease of 122,400 tons or 20.90% from the previous period [27]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples increased. The profits of different production methods in different regions all showed varying degrees of increase [31]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, it is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0331 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 91.07% [34]. 3.2 Demand - The olefin industry's capacity utilization rate will continue to decline, the dimethyl ether's may increase slightly, the acetic acid's is expected to increase, the formaldehyde's will have limited adjustment, and the chloride's is expected to increase [36]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 303,300 tons, slightly decreasing from last week. The port inventory may increase due to the expected increase in foreign vessel arrivals [37]. - Overall, the fundamentals of methanol this week may weaken marginally, but the downward pressure is not significant. The macro - level impact on methanol prices has decreased, and the rebound space of methanol may be limited [9][38].