Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [7] - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [8] - The inventory of methanol enterprises in the inland area remains low, while the port inventory continues to accumulate. Next week, the port inventory is expected to continue increasing, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention [8] - After the restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin to full - load operation, the olefin industry's operating rate will increase [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2390 and 2460 in the short term [7] - Market review: The domestic port methanol market was slightly weak this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2330 - 2400 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2350 - 2380 yuan/ton. The inland market continued to rise, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2090 - 2125 yuan/ton. The downstream Dongying receiving price ranged from 2325 - 2360 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall methanol production in China increased slightly. The inland supply was tight, and enterprise inventory remained low. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep rising next week. The olefin industry's operating rate will increase after the restart of relevant plants [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.55% [12] - Inter - period spread: As of August 15, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 96 [16] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the content - Warehouse receipt: As of August 14, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11168, an increase of 2480 from last week [22] Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 15, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2095 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.5 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign price: As of August 14, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 266 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 15, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.5 yuan/ton from last week [38] 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal price: As of August 13, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [41] - Natural gas price: As of August 14, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.85 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.15 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] Industry - Production and operating rate: As of August 14, China's methanol production was 1863275 tons, an increase of 18050 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 82.40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.97% [44] - Inventory: As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 102.18 million tons, an increase of 9.63 million tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 29.56 million tons, an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 21.94 million tons, a decrease of 2.14 million tons from the previous period [49] - Import: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume was 122.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.58%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 537.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of August 14, the methanol import profit was 42.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54 yuan/ton from last week [52] Downstream - Operating rate: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 84.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [55] - Profit: As of August 15, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 952 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton from last week [58] 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations, and attention should be paid to whether the arbitrage between the inland and ports is opened. The inland supply increases due to the concentrated resumption of previously shut - down methanol plants, but the tight - balance supply - demand pattern continues. It is expected to fluctuate strongly next week. The supply - demand contradiction in ports is obvious, with concentrated shipments from Iran and the shutdown of large olefin plants in ports. The futures market has some support but limited upward momentum, and the East China methanol market is expected to fluctuate with both rises and falls next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market has regional differences. Inland supply increases, but the tight - balance pattern persists. The port is expected to accumulate inventory, and the futures market has support but limited upside [6]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From August 1st to August 8th, the prices in different regions had different changes. Jiangsu decreased by 0.21%, Hebei increased by 1.79%, Inner Mongolia increased by 1.21%, and Fujian decreased by 1.03%. The price in Shandong remained unchanged [7]. Methanol Basis - From August 1st to August 8th, the spot price decreased by 0.21%, the futures price decreased by 0.42%, and the basis increased by 5 [9]. Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit decreased by 9 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based increased by 334 yuan/ton from August 1st to August 8th [12]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% this week compared with last week, and the northwest load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [14]. Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From August 1st to August 8th, CFR China decreased by 0.37%, CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged, and the spread decreased by 1 [17]. Methanol Import Spread - From August 1st to August 8th, the spot price decreased by 0.21%, the import cost decreased by 0.51%, and the import spread increased by 7 [20]. Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - From August 1st to August 8th, the prices of formaldehyde and acetic acid remained unchanged, and dimethyl ether increased by 0.79% [24]. Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - The formaldehyde production profit decreased by 18 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% this week compared with last week [28]. Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - The dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 27 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% this week compared with last week [30]. Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - The acetic acid production profit increased by 3 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% this week compared with last week [35]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% this week compared with last week [39]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased by 8.60 to 51.08, and in the South China port, it increased by 6.70 to 29.25 [40]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - The warehouse receipts increased by 1.66% to 8688, and the valid forecasts remained at 1100 [42]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic enterprises are in maintenance, such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary [44]. Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operation statuses, including restarting, normal operation, and planned maintenance [45]. Olefin Plant Operation - Olefin plants in different regions have different operation statuses. Some are running stably, some are in maintenance, and some have load - related issues [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of methanol are becoming more polarized, and regional trends are expected to be prominent in the future. The port market is likely to see inventory accumulation this week due to concentrated imports, and weak demand from factors like maintenance of coal - to - olefins plants in Zhejiang and the off - season. It is expected to adjust weakly. The inland market has a healthy supply - demand situation with low enterprise inventories and restarting olefin plants, but is dragged down by the weak port market, and is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating between 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 are polarized. The port market may accumulate inventory this week, and demand is weak. The inland market has healthy supply - demand but is affected by the port. The price is expected to oscillate, with MA2509 in the range of 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis is 24, with the spot at a premium to the futures. As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 80.33 tons, an increase of 15.30 tons from the previous period. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya are shut down. The methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has been in production since May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month. CTO factories in the northwest have external procurement needs [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operation. There are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operation rate has dropped significantly. Coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the price of动力煤Q5500 (intermediate price) is 665 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 272 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2400 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2388 yuan/ton. The basis of Jiangsu - Lunan is - 6 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 12 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operation rate data**: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operation rate in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from last week [8]. - **Inventory data**: The inventory in East China ports is 51.08 tons, an increase of 8.60 tons from last week. The inventory in South China ports is 29.25 tons, an increase of 6.70 tons from last week [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many plants in the northwest, north, east, and southwest regions are in maintenance, shutdown, or production - reduction states, including Shaanxi Heima, Ningxia Changyi, etc. [55]. - **Overseas methanol plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or operating at low rates, and some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally, while some are in maintenance [56]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants in the northwest, east, and other regions are in maintenance or operating normally, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, which is in synchronous maintenance of methanol and olefins, and some plants like Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin are operating stably [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are becoming more polarized, with regional trends expected to be prominent in the future. The port market is likely to accumulate inventory this week due to concentrated imports, and weak demand may lead to a downward adjustment. The inland market has low inventory and healthy supply - demand fundamentals, but may be affected by the port's weak market and maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2360 - 2410 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: The port market may accumulate inventory, and demand is weak; the inland market has no supply pressure in the short term, and the supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, but it is affected by the port market. The overall assessment is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 13, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 65.03 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.32 tons from the previous period; the overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 4.05 tons to 36.63 tons, which is bullish [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is below the moving average, which is neutral [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2360 - 2410 [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some devices are shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol start - up rate in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; some acetic acid devices have been put into production or are planned to be put into production; CTO enterprises in the northwest still have external procurement needs [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated ship arrivals at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the off - season, and the MTBE start - up rate has decreased significantly; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in various regions has different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 1.41% week - on - week, while the price in Inner Mongolia has increased by 1.70% week - on - week. The futures closing price has increased by 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis Spread Structure**: The basis spread of various regions and the import basis spread have changed. For example, the basis spread between Jiangsu and Shandong has decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 24 yuan/ton, and the import basis spread has decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [8]. - **Start - up Rate**: The national weighted average start - up rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The start - up rate in different regions has also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East and South China ports has increased, and the available and tradable inventory in coastal areas has also increased [8]. - **Production Profit**: The production profits of different methanol production processes are different. For example, the profit of coal - to - methanol has decreased by 21 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol has increased by 334 yuan/ton week - on - week [18]. - **Downstream Product Price and Profit**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have little change. The production profits and loads of downstream products have also changed slightly [29][33][36][40]. - **MTO Production Profit and Load**: The MTO device production profit has increased by 109 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the load has increased by 0.15% [45]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol enterprises are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or reduced load, involving various regions such as the northwest, north, east, and southwest [55]. - **Foreign Methanol Device Operation**: The operation status of foreign methanol devices varies. Some devices in Iran are in the process of restarting, and some devices in other countries are operating normally or at a low start - up rate [56]. - **Olefin Device Operation**: The operation status of domestic olefin devices is also different. Some devices are operating stably, some are shut down for maintenance, and some are expected to be put into production [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the methanol market are becoming more polarized, and regional trends are expected to be prominent in the later stage. In the port market, with concentrated imports expected next week, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation. The shutdown and maintenance of coal - to - olefin plants in Zhejiang and the off - season of the industry will drag down overall demand, so the port market is predicted to be weak. Inland, although methanol production is on the rise, low enterprise inventories mean no short - term supply pressure. The restart of olefin plants and the external procurement demand of northwest CTO enterprises support the inland methanol price. However, affected by the weak port market, the inland methanol price is expected to fluctuate slightly [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The fundamentals of the methanol market are polarized, with different trends in the port and inland markets. The port market may face inventory accumulation and weak demand, while the inland market has relatively healthy supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by the port's weakness [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From July 25th to August 1st, the prices in different regions showed different trends. The price in Jiangsu decreased by 4.14%, from 2488 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong (Lunan) remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton; the price in Hebei increased by 0.45%, from 2225 yuan/ton to 2235 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.73%, from 2050 yuan/ton to 2065 yuan/ton; and the price in Fujian decreased by 3.97%, from 2520 yuan/ton to 2420 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Methanol Spot, Futures, and Basis - From July 25th to August 1st, the spot price decreased by 4.14% (from 2488 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton), the futures price decreased by 5.00% (from 2519 yuan/ton to 2393 yuan/ton), and the basis increased by 23 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 41 yuan/ton from July 25th to August 1st; natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton; and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit decreased by 334 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% from last week to this week, from 78.71% to 74.90%. The load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55%, from 85.09% to 81.54% [15]. 3.2.5 Outer - market Methanol Price and Spread - From July 25th to August 1st, the CFR China price decreased by 3.21% (from 280 dollars/ton to 271 dollars/ton), the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, and the spread between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia widened by 9 dollars/ton [18]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From July 25th to August 1st, the spot price decreased by 4.14%, the import cost decreased by 2.98%, and the import spread decreased by 29 yuan/ton [21]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Price - From July 25th to August 1st, the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [28]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit decreased by 4 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% [29]. - Dimethyl ether: The production profit decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% [31]. - Acetic acid: The production profit increased by 57 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% [36]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased (from - 1262 yuan/ton to - 932 yuan/ton), and the MTO/MTP device load in the east China slightly increased [40]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the east China port, the inventory increased from 41.67 to 42.48; in the south China port, the inventory increased from 17.04 to 22.55 [41]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From July 25th to August 1st, the warehouse receipts decreased by 15.67% (from 10134 to 8546), and the effective forecasts remained at 0 [45]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with different start and end times, raw materials, and production losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat (100,000 - ton annual capacity, coke oven gas) started maintenance in early November 2024, and the end time is to be determined, with a weekly production loss of 1950 tons [48]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operation statuses. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restored one unit, but it needs to be verified; Marjan in Iran is in the process of restarting and recovering in mid - March [49]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Many domestic olefin plants have different operation statuses. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants stopped for maintenance on March 15th, expected to last for 45 days; Ningbo Fude is operating smoothly [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2430 in the short - term [7] - The average price of the domestic port methanol market rose this week, showing a post - decline volatile consolidation trend. The inland methanol market mainly increased. The upstream enterprises raised prices due to factors such as increased external procurement by northwest olefin plants, some device overhauls, and low enterprise inventories, and downstream buyers followed passively [8] - The output of restored domestic methanol production capacity this week was more than the loss of overhauled and reduced production capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased slightly this week, but the inventory may increase in some regions due to device restoration and load increase. The port methanol inventory continued to accumulate this week, mainly in the South China region. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short - term, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention [8] - In terms of demand, after the restart of Zhongmei Mengda olefin enterprise, its load is increasing. Zhejiang Xingxing stopped production in the middle of the week. After hedging, the olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly. There is still room for the olefin industry's start - up rate to rise [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2430 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The average price of the domestic port methanol market rose this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2370 - 2500 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2380 - 2490 yuan/ton. The inland market mainly increased, with the price in the northern line of Erdos ranging from 2025 - 2060 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2295 - 2305 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall methanol output increased slightly. The inland enterprise inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in the South China region. The olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly, and there is still room for growth [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a - 5% decline [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of August 1, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 92 [16] - Position analysis: Not provided in the content - Warehouse receipts: As of August 1, there were 8546 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1588 from last week [22] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of August 1, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2062.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 332.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign spot price: As of July 31, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 272 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 61 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 1, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.5 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.4. Upstream Situation - Coal and natural gas prices: As of July 30, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of July 31, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: As of July 31, China's methanol production was 1,930,125 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 85.36%, a 1.64% increase from the previous week [44] - Inventory: As of July 30, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous data. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period [49] - Import volume and profit: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.2202 million tons, a 5.58% decrease from the previous week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.3773 million tons, a 14.68% year - on - year decrease. As of July 31, the methanol import profit was 21.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton from last week [52] 3.6. Downstream Situation - Start - up rate: As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 86.39%, a 0.32% increase from the previous week [55] - Disk profit: As of August 1, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 881 yuan/ton, an increase of 216 yuan/ton from last week [59]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production decreased slightly last week as the loss of production capacity due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output of restored production capacity. The overall inventory showed a downward trend as some olefin plants consumed the previously accumulated methanol inventory after resumption, but the methanol port inventory continued to increase. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2430 - 2500 in the short - term [2][3]. - The overall inventory of methanol showed a downward trend last week, but the port inventory continued to increase. The olefin industry's overall start - up increased slightly last week, and the short - term overall start - up rate is expected to increase slightly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2457 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 79 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 660,678 lots, an increase of 10,223 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 111,147 lots, an increase of 4086 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,344, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1985 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 405 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 67 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 275 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 223 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 55 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.32 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.25 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 63.4 tons, an increase of 6.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 15.62 tons, an increase of 0.78 tons. The import profit of methanol was 3.44 yuan/ton, down 7.04 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate was 82.69%, down 2.06 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde was 43.65%, down 1.59 percentage points; the start - up rate of acetic acid was 90.59%, down 3.32 percentage points; the start - up rate of dimethyl ether was 5.19%, unchanged; the start - up rate of MTBE was 67.63%, up 0.77 percentage points. The start - up rate of olefins was 85.1%, down 0.05 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit was - 1003 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 14.65%, down 7.99 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 23.16%, up 0.39 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for methanol was 18.99%, up 3.43 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.23 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 24.31 tons, an increase of 2.19 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% [2]. - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 79.02 tons, an increase of 7.13 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China increased by 6.35 tons and 0.78 tons respectively [2]. - As of July 17, as of July 16, 2025 (the 29th week), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.23 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59% [2]. 3.8 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the inventory of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term overall methanol industry's overall开工率 is expected to increase slightly, and the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2411 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 650455 lots, down 19282 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 115233 lots, up 28083 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 10344, up 1800 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2390 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1985 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan; the East - Northwest price difference is 405 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 21 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 273 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 330 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars; FOB Rotterdam is 222 euros/ton, down 14 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 57 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.51 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.05 dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 63.4 tons, up 6.35 tons; in South China ports, it is 15.62 tons, up 0.78 tons; the methanol import profit is 10.48 yuan/ton, up 14.54 yuan; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 352300 tons, down 4600 tons; the methanol enterprise's operating rate is 82.69%, down 2.06% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 43.65%, down 1.59%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate is 90.59%, down 3.32%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.63%, up 0.77%; the olefin operating rate is 85.1%, down 0.05%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 942 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.64%, up 1.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.78%, up 0.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.56%, up 0.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.56%, up 0.72% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.23 tons, down 0.46 tons, a 1.28% decrease; the orders to be delivered were 24.31 tons, up 2.19 tons, a 9.89% increase; the total port inventory was 79.02 tons, up 7.13 tons; as of July 17, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.23 tons, down 0.05 tons, a 1.59% decrease [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - Recently, the overall methanol production has decreased slightly. The inventory of inland enterprises has shown differences, with the overall inventory showing a downward trend. The port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the downstream demand has been weak [2] 3.9 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]

Report Title - Port continues to accumulate inventory, methanol runs weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The start - up rate of coal mines has declined slightly. As of July 18, the start - up rate of coal mines in Ordos is 69%, and that in Yulin is 46%. Some coal mines have stopped production. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin is around 3.7 million tons, with weak demand and weak pit - mouth prices [4]. - On the supply side, the start - up rate of coal mines in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak. The raw coal price fluctuates, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, with continuous ample domestic supply [4]. - On the import side, the start - up rate of international methanol plants has continued to rise, the US dollar price has slightly decreased, and imports are slightly inverted. Except for the fpc plant in Iran, all other plants are operating normally. The start - up rate outside Iran has slightly increased, and the external start - up has rebounded to a new high this year. The prices in the European and American markets have slightly declined, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk at a low level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 370,000 tons in July. Iran has carried out price - cut tenders, and some Indian supplies have flowed to China. US dollar merchants have sold at high prices, leading to an increase in arrivals in Taicang and accelerated inventory accumulation [4]. - On the demand side, traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and the start - up rate has declined. The start - up rate of MTO plants has increased, but some MTO plants are operating at less than full capacity. The inventory at ports has increased due to more arrivals, and the basis is firm; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - Overall, the start - up rate of international plants has slightly increased, most plants in Iran have restarted, and the daily output has climbed to around 38,000 tons. Imports are gradually recovering, with an estimated import volume of 1.25 million tons in July. With the increase in arrivals, the port inventory has slightly increased. At the same time, due to the continued decline in domestic coal prices, the coal - to - methanol profit has expanded to the highest level in history, and the start - up rate of coal - to - methanol is stable, resulting in ample domestic supply. It is expected that methanol will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the recent strong rise of domestic bulk commodities provides some support [4]. - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, expect weak fluctuations; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The core view is a comprehensive analysis of the supply, demand, inventory, and price trends of methanol in terms of raw coal, domestic supply, imports, downstream demand, etc., and gives corresponding trading strategies [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of July 17, the overall start - up load of domestic methanol plants is 71.09%, a decrease of 1.41 percentage points from last week and an increase of 5.99 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load in the northwest region is 75.59%, a decrease of 2.70 percentage points from last week and an increase of 6.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The average start - up load of non - integrated methanol plants is 66.45%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: In the period from July 12 to July 18, 2025, the output of international methanol (excluding China) is 1,056,853 tons, an increase of 19,250 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 72.45%, an increase of 1.32% from last week. The Apadana plant in Iran has restarted, and the overall operation of other plants in Iran is 70% - 80% [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of 14:00 on July 16, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol in the period is 430,400 tons, including 373,400 tons by foreign vessels and 57,000 tons supplemented by domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of July 17, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 80.23%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant start - up rate is 86.23%, and the overall start - up of the industry has slightly increased this week [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, remaining the same as last week. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 93.91%, slightly decreasing this week. The formaldehyde start - up rate is 45.24%, decreasing from last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 63,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 70.27% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The inventory of production enterprises is 356,900 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 221,200 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29% [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of July 16, 2025, the total port inventory is 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China has increased by 63,500 tons, and that in South China has increased by 7,800 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi is around 735 yuan/ton. The price difference between the port and the northern line is 430 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the port and northern Shandong is 170 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has weakened [5] 2. Spot Price - The spot price in Taicang is 2360 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), and the price in the northern line is 1970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that the domestic methanol market will likely maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. In the port market, with stable import arrivals, continuous supply from inland areas, and some cargo originally intended for downstream use being redirected to social warehouses, there is a risk of short - term inventory accumulation. The supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively loose, and news about tariffs and crude oil may continuously affect futures trends. The port market may continue to fluctuate within a range, and import arrival situations need to be continuously monitored. - In the inland market, demand has significantly weakened during the traditional high - temperature off - season, and most downstream products are currently in a loss state, which is not conducive to cost transfer. Additionally, due to tight transportation capacity, traders are also cautious in their purchases. However, the continuous external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the northwest and the concentrated maintenance of multiple sets of devices in production areas such as Yankuang Yulin, Xilaifeng, and Shenmu provide some support to the inland supply side. Without prominent contradictions in the fundamentals, industry players are cautiously optimistic about the future market, and there are few short - selling operations. It is expected that the inland methanol market will remain in a stalemate and consolidation state next week. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The report predicts that the domestic methanol market will be volatile in the short - term. The port market may face inventory accumulation risks due to import arrivals and redirected cargo, while the inland market has weak demand but some supply - side support from device maintenance and external procurement. [5] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Prices - Prices in different regions showed various changes from July 11th to July 18th. For example, the price in Jiangsu increased by 0.72%, in Hebei by 0.69%, while in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 0.38% and in Fujian by 0.41%. The price in Shandong remained unchanged. [6] 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 0.72% from July 11th to July 18th, while the futures price decreased by 0.21%. The basis changed from - 2 on July 11th to 22 on July 18th. [9] 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based methanol production profit decreased by 109 yuan/ton from July 11th to July 18th. The profit from natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 120 yuan/ton, and the profit from coke - oven - gas - based methanol decreased by 331 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - Nationally, the methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a decrease of 3.81%. In the northwest region, it decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55%. [13] 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - The CFR China price decreased by 1.10% from July 11th to July 18th, and the CFR Southeast Asia price decreased by 0.90%. The spread between them remained unchanged at - 60.5. [16] 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost decreased by 1.02% from July 11th to July 18th, while the spot price increased by 0.72%. The import spread changed from - 44 on July 11th to - 3 on July 18th. [19] 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The price of formaldehyde remained unchanged, dimethyl ether remained unchanged, and acetic acid decreased by 2.00% from July 11th to July 18th. [26] 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90%. Dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 21 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82%. Acetic acid production profit decreased by 59 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94%. [27][29][33] 3.2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - The MTO production profit decreased by 54 yuan/ton, and the MTO/MTP device load decreased from 79.84% last week to 79.69% this week. [37] 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, inventory increased from 42.62 to 44.6, an increase of 1.98. In the South China port, it increased from 14.14 to 15, an increase of 0.86. [39] 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68% from July 11th to July 18th, while effective forecasts increased by 148.96%. [40] 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. Different enterprises have different maintenance start and end dates, raw materials, and annual production capacities. [42] 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol production enterprises in countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States have different operation statuses. Some are in the process of restarting, some are operating stably, and some are operating at a low level. [43] 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Olefin production enterprises in different regions have different operation statuses. Some are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some have plans for future production expansion or maintenance. [44]