Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the context of a weakening fundamental outlook, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak performance in the short - term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operating rates, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong is under maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With high domestic methanol operating rates and low inventories at upstream methanol plants still focused on sales, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short - term. Considering the current low methanol prices and cautious short - selling by traders, the price decline is expected to be limited. In ports, under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. [5] - It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2090 - 2160. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of methanol 2601 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. As of October 30, 2025, port inventories have slightly increased, and the overall available circulating supply in coastal areas has decreased, both being bearish factors. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average, also bearish. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that methanol prices will oscillate this week, with MA2601 ranging from 2090 - 2160. [5] 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have shut down; Iranian methanol operating rates have decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing external methanol. [6] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operations; there is an expected concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have significantly declined; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventories due to continuous poor sales. [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 694 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 249 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2192 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 2141 yuan/ton. There have been various price changes in different regions and varieties. [8] - **Inventory Data**: As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 1282,900 tons, a slight increase of 13,100 tons from the previous period. The overall available circulating supply of methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 5300 tons to 838,300 tons. [5] - **Operating Rate Data**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. Operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed. [8] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc., with different maintenance start and end dates and corresponding weekly maintenance losses. [54] - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operating conditions, such as some plants are in the process of restarting, some are operating stably, and some are under maintenance. [55] - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, Northeast, etc. have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production increases. [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the expected weakening of the fundamentals, it is predicted that the domestic methanol market will continue to operate weakly in the short term. Inland, multiple olefin plants have maintenance plans in November, the traditional downstream acetic acid has a low operating rate, and a large methanol-to-hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on the demand side. Currently, the domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, and upstream methanol plants still maintain low inventories and focus on sales. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short term. Considering that the current methanol price is already at a low level, the cautious short - selling by traders provides support for the bottom price, so the decline is expected to be limited. In the port area, under the suppression of the expected high overseas supply and the bearish sentiment of high port inventories, it is expected that the port methanol market will continue to decline weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact of the sanctions event, the shipping situation from Iran, and the operating rate of coastal MTO plants [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market is expected to continue its weak trend due to weakening fundamentals, with limited decline due to low prices and trader caution. The port market will also decline weakly under high - supply expectations and high inventories [5]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From October 24th to October 31st, the prices in Jiangsu decreased by 3.71% to 2157 yuan/ton, in Hebei decreased by 0.92% to 2155 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.72% to 2005 yuan/ton, and in Fujian decreased by 2.66% to 2195 yuan/ton. The price in Lunan remained unchanged at 2310 yuan/ton [6]. 2.2 Methanol Futures and Basis - From October 24th to October 31st, the futures price decreased by 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 9 [8]. 2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based methanol profit increased by 64 to 130 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit increased by 324 to 305 yuan/ton from October 24th to October 31st [10]. 2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the northwest region's load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12]. 2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From October 24th to October 31st, CFR China decreased by 4.20% to 251 US dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 0.31% to 323.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread increased by 10 to - 72.5 US dollars/ton [15]. 2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From October 24th to October 31st, the spot price decreased by 3.71% to 2157 yuan/ton, the import cost decreased by 4.08% to 2208 yuan/ton, and the import spread increased by 11 to - 51 yuan/ton [18]. 2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - From October 24th to October 31st, the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged at 1070 yuan/ton, 3850 yuan/ton, and 2600 yuan/ton respectively [25]. 2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The profit increased by 9 to - 149 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% [26]. - Dimethyl ether: The profit increased by 28 to 490 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% [28]. - Acetic acid: The profit increased by 46 to 214 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% [33]. 2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - From October 24th to October 31st, the MTO production profit increased by 266 to - 202 yuan/ton, and the MTO load decreased by 0.15% to 79.69% [37]. 2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - The inventory in East China decreased by 0.53 to 78.18 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 1.84 to 50.11 tons [41]. 2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - From October 24th to October 31st, the warehouse receipts decreased by 16.00% to 11837, and the valid forecasts remained at 0 [42]. 3. Maintenance Status 3.1 Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic methanol plants in various regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are under maintenance, with different start and end dates and maintenance loss volumes [44]. 3.2 Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas methanol plants in countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., have different operating statuses, including normal operation, restarting, and planned maintenance [45]. 3.3 Olefin Plant Operation - Olefin plants in different regions such as Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and Tianjin have various operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the port methanol market weakened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2170 - 2270 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2180 - 2260 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market continued to decline, with the price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 2010 - 2040 yuan/ton. Due to squeezed downstream profits, high supply, and high inventory, enterprises mainly reduced prices to attract orders [7]. - Recently, the domestic methanol production has decreased as the loss of production capacity from maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output from restored production. Although the enterprise shipment rhythm is okay, the inventory of some enterprises has increased significantly due to the suspension of individual MTO long - term contracts. The port methanol inventory has a narrow fluctuation, and it is expected to accumulate next week as the demand has not improved significantly. The overall operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry decreased this week but is expected to increase next week [7]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2150 - 2250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Port methanol prices weakened, and inland prices continued to fall. Enterprises cut prices to attract orders due to high supply, high inventory, and squeezed downstream profits [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production decreased, enterprise inventory increased, port inventory may accumulate, and the methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate is expected to rise [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2150 - 2250 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a - 4.05% change in the main contract price [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of October 31, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 80 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 30, there were 11,997 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 2095 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: As of October 30, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2020 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.5 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Prices**: As of October 30, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 257 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 67 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from last week [34]. - **Basis**: As of October 30, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of October 29, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of October 30, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.06 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.72 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [43]. - **Industry**: As of October 30, China's methanol production was 1,968,095 tons, an increase of 24,630 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 86.73%, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 376,100 tons, an increase of 15,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.36%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 215,600 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. The total Chinese methanol port inventory was 1.5065 million tons, a decrease of 5700 tons from the previous data. In September 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.92%; from January to September 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of October 30, the methanol import profit was - 31.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.67 yuan/ton from last week [47][52][55]. - **Downstream**: As of October 30, the domestic methanol - to - olefins device capacity utilization rate was 91.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. As of October 31, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 750 yuan/ton, an increase of 204 yuan/ton from last week [58][61]. 3.5 Options Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the provided content

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - For methanol 2601, the mainland's inventory is low and coal prices are firm, but the overall start - up is high, and the negative feedback from olefins is emerging. The port is affected by sanctions, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. It is expected that the mainland's price fluctuation range is limited, and the port will maintain high - volatility with both ups and downs this week. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate mainly, and MA2601 will operate in the range of 2200 - 2260 [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the mainland's cost - end support is strengthened, but there is supply pressure in some areas, and the negative feedback from olefins is showing. The port is affected by sanctions, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is bearish, the main position is net short and increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate this week [4] 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some devices are shut down, Iran's methanol start - up is reduced, some acetic acid devices are put into production or plan to be put into production, and northwest CTO plants purchase methanol externally [6] - **Likely to be Bearish**: Previously shut - down devices are restarted, there will be concentrated arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde enters the off - season, MTBE start - up declines significantly, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling goods, and inventory in some production areas is accumulating [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2210 yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis is 2, and the spot premium is over futures. In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim and Jiangsu remains unchanged, CFR China Main Port drops by 5 US dollars/ton, and the import cost drops by 41 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price drops by 49 yuan/ton, and the registered warehouse receipts decrease by 125 [4][8] - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 128.29 million tons, a slight increase of 1.31 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas decreases by 0.53 million tons to 83.83 million tons [4] - **Start - up Rate**: The national weighted average start - up rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest all decline [8] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many plants in Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and losses [55] - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are in different operating states, including restarting, running stably, or under maintenance [56] - **Olefin Plants**: Olefin plants in Northwest, East, Central, and other regions have different operating conditions, some are running stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol 2601, the mainland market has limited room for rise and fall due to factors such as low upstream factory inventories, strong coal prices, high overall mainland plant operation levels, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories. The port market is expected to maintain a high - volatility state with both rises and falls this week, affected by the sanctions event, with weakening downward momentum but a weak fundamental situation. The report suggests paying attention to the follow - up impact of the sanctions event, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operation [4]. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week, with MA2601 operating in the range of 2230 - 2280 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Mainland: Low upstream factory inventories and strong coal prices support the cost side, but high operation levels in some areas and squeezed olefin profits have a negative impact. The market has limited upward and downward space. Port: Affected by the sanctions event, the downward momentum of the port market is weakened, but it will maintain high volatility [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2230 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 11, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 125.89 tons, a slight decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period. The available circulating methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 6.34 tons to 87.70 tons [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some device shutdowns (Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinyao), reduced methanol operation in Iran, low port inventories, the commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen, a planned commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month, and external procurement of methanol by northwest CTO factories [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operation, certain profit margins for coal - to - methanol production, and inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, prices in various regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia have changed to different extents. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased, and the number of registered warrants has decreased. There have also been changes in price spreads such as basis, import spreads, and regional spreads [8]. - **Operation Rate**: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have also decreased [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory in East China ports has increased by 3.02 tons, while the inventory in South China ports has decreased by 1.93 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and losses [56]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions [57]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, normal operation, or load adjustment, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Ningbo Fude, etc. [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol 2601, the mainland market is expected to have limited upside and downside due to factors such as low upstream factory inventory, high coal prices, high overall mainland operating rates, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories. The port market is expected to maintain a high - volatility state with both ups and downs this week, affected by sanctions on Iran, with attention on subsequent impacts of sanctions, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operating rates. Overall, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2240 - 2310 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The mainland has cost - side support from low upstream factory inventory and high coal prices, but also faces supply pressure from high operating rates and negative feedback from olefin plants. The port is affected by sanctions on Iran, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. The overall methanol price is expected to be volatile this week [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some plants are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol operating rates are down, some acetic acid plants are in production or have planned production, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde is in the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2265 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 3, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 125.89 million tons, a decrease of 1.41 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 6.34 million tons to 87.70 million tons [5]. - **Market Price and Spread**: Various market prices and spreads are provided, including those of spot and futures markets, and different regional price differences. For example, the futures closing price was 2268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous value; the basis was - 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The weighted average national operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous value. Operating rates in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Production Profits**: Different production processes have different profit situations. For example, coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia had a profit of 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous value; natural - gas - to - methanol in the southwest had a profit of - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [19]. - **Downstream Product Data**: Traditional downstream product prices such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained stable. Production profits and operating rates of downstream products also showed different changes. For example, the profit of formaldehyde production was - 158 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton from the previous value; the operating rate was 25.42%, an increase of 0.90% from the previous value [29][34]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or reduced - load operation, with different maintenance start and end dates and losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based plant has been shut down for maintenance since November 2024, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1950 tons [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants are in different operating states, such as some in Iran are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, and some plants in other countries are operating normally or are in maintenance [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin plant and its 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant were shut down for maintenance on March 15, 2025, with an expected maintenance period of 45 days [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The price of methanol decreased and then rebounded slightly. The closing price of the 01 contract on October 24 was 2273 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to last week. The spot price in Taicang dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 2235 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened to -37 yuan/ton. With multiple methanol plants under maintenance and reduced supply in some areas, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry declined, and the traditional terminal market demand was relatively weak. Although the price rebounded due to improved macro sentiment and a rebound in crude oil prices, the port inventory pressure persisted, limiting the rebound space. The operating range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 2230 - 2330 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - The price of methanol decreased and then rebounded slightly. On October 24, the closing price of the 01 contract was 2273 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to last week. The spot price in Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis weakened to -37 yuan/ton [3][4]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points from last week, with a weekly output of 194.35 million tons. The expected arrival volume at ports was 6.7 million tons. Multiple methanol plants in the inland region were under maintenance, resulting in tight supply in some areas [3][10]. Cost - The domestic thermal coal market price continued to rise, increasing by 26 yuan/ton to 619 yuan/ton, leading to a continuous increase in the cost of coal-based methanol [3][13]. Demand - The operating rate of the methanol-to-olefins industry was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points from last week. Some olefin plants in coastal areas reduced their production loads, and the operating rate declined slightly. The demand for externally purchased methanol is expected to weaken next week when a methanol project supporting an olefin plant in Inner Mongolia resumes operation. Additionally, a 200,000 - ton ethylene project in Henan is about to shut down, indicating weak demand from the main downstream industries. The traditional downstream demand for methanol remained weak, with low operating loads at traditional downstream factories and cautious replenishment based on rigid demand [3][17]. Inventory - The inventory of sampled methanol enterprises was 36.04 million tons, an increase of 0.05 million tons from last week. The port inventory was 151.22 million tons, an increase of 2.08 million tons from last week. The inventory of enterprises and ports showed a divergence, with a decline in the inland operating rate and a recovery in arrival volume, narrowing the price difference between the inland and ports [3][23]. Main Operating Logic - Multiple methanol plants in the inland region were under maintenance, resulting in tight supply in some areas. The operating rate of the methanol-to-olefins industry declined slightly, and the main demand in some areas weakened. The traditional terminal market demand was relatively weak. Although the improved macro sentiment and a rebound in crude oil prices drove up the methanol price, the port inventory pressure persisted, limiting the rebound space. The operating range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 2230 - 2330 [3]. Key Points of Attention - Changes in the macro - economic situation, methanol plant maintenance, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-27甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：内地方面，上游工厂库存不高，以及煤炭价格坚挺，成本端支撑加强，且当前产区甲醇价格已处于偏低水 平，对内地行情均有一定支撑。但同时当前内地整体开工仍处于偏高水平，局部地区如关中有一定供应压力。而烯烃利 润大幅挤压，当前成本压力明显据悉港口部分烯烃装置降负，对甲醇的负反馈逐步显现。另外港口库存居高不下，新一 轮合约周期即将开启，场内货源供应并不紧缺。业者对后市信心一般，预计内地涨跌空间有限。港口方面，受制裁事件 影响，伊朗进口船货卸货被无限期推延，在炒作支撑下，港口市场下行动力减弱，但基本面偏弱事实下，预计本周港 ...

现实依旧偏弱，盘面震荡下行 甲醇周报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/10/25 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 能化板块整体反弹走强，甲醇受自身基本面偏弱影响跟涨乏力，港口库存继续回升，基差与月差走弱，现实压力依旧较大，甲 醇偏弱运行。 | | --- | --- | | 基本面 |  国内开工85.65%，环比-2%，后续开工预计仍以回升为主。 供应  煤炭价格持续走强，甲醇成本走高。  到港35.2万吨，环比+6.82万吨，预计后续到港继续回升。  港口烯烃开工87.25%，环比-0.83%，部分装置降负。 需求  传统需求醋酸、MTBE开工走高，其余回落，整体有所走弱。 | | |  随着进口扰动弱化，基差与月间价差再度回落，同比均处于低位。  煤炭持续走强，煤制利润高位快速回落。 估值  下游利润小幅改善但绝对水平依旧偏低。  ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoint - This week, the port methanol market was weak, and the inland market declined. The overall domestic methanol production decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than output from restored capacity. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises decreased, while the port inventory increased slightly. In October, the expected sufficient imports may further raise the port inventory. The overall olefin industry's operation rate decreased this week, and it may continue to decline in the short term due to cost pressure and falling downstream prices. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2320 [7]. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market was weak. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2230 - 2300 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2240 - 2270 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market declined. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranged from 2010 - 2053 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2267 - 2277 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production decreased. The overall supply pressure was not significant, and the inventory of domestic methanol enterprises decreased. The port inventory increased slightly, and there is still a possibility of further increase in October. The olefin industry's operation rate decreased this week and may continue to decline in the short term [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2320 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures was flat this week, with a 0% change [10]. - As of October 24, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 45 [14]. - As of October 24, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 14092, an increase of 2810 compared to last week [22]. - **Spot Market** - As of October 23, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2012.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 237.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to last week [27]. - As of October 23, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 261 dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 65 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton compared to last week [32]. - As of October 23, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 42 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [36]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of October 22, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to last week. - As of October 23, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.29 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.29 dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [39]. - **Industry** - As of October 23, China's methanol production was 1943465 tons, a decrease of 39690 tons compared to last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.65%, a decrease of 2.00% compared to last week [42]. - As of October 22, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.04 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.13% increase. The sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 21.57 tons, a decrease of 1.33 tons compared to the previous period, a 5.79% decrease. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 151.22 tons, an increase of 2.08 tons compared to the previous data [48]. - In September 2025, China's methanol imports were 142.69 tons, a decrease of 18.92% compared to the previous month. From January to September 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 966.67 tons, a decrease of 3.94% compared to the same period last year. As of October 23, the methanol import profit was - 6.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.1 yuan/ton compared to last week [51]. - **Downstream** - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 91.44%, a decrease of 1.97% compared to last week [54]. - As of October 24, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit was - 954 yuan/ton, an increase of 111 yuan/ton compared to last week [57]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report.