Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The 05 contract faces resistance at the 2400 level. The market is influenced by factors such as high port inventories, weak downstream demand, expected import reductions, and macro - sentiment fluctuations. Despite high domestic methanol production expectations and abundant supply, the expected decline in port arrivals in January and stable downstream demand this week contribute to the anticipated price stability [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Port Market**: Last week, the port methanol market fluctuated within a range. The price in Jiangsu was between 2180 - 2250 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, it was between 2180 - 2240 yuan/ton. The market was affected by high port inventories, weak downstream demand, expected import reductions, and macro - sentiment fluctuations [1]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic methanol price continued to decline. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line was between 1787 - 1835 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price was between 2115 - 2115 yuan/ton. Due to factors like the dissipation of macro - sentiment premiums, abundant domestic supply, high inventories in the middle and lower reaches, and the seasonal off - peak demand, the market continued to decline [1]. - **Outlook**: Methanol enterprises' overall profits are poor. Domestic methanol production is expected to remain at a high level. With the implementation of seasonal gas restrictions in the Middle East, port arrivals are expected to decrease in January. Downstream demand is expected to be stable this week. Given the abundant supply and high port inventories, the price is expected to fluctuate in the near term [1]. Factors to Watch - Methanol production start - up changes and methanol port inventory changes [2]. Weekly Fundamental Data Changes - **Price and Basis**: The basis in Jiangsu decreased from - 9 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 26 yuan/ton or - 288% [3]. - **Inventory**: The inland methanol sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.26 tons to 43.83 tons, a - 2.79% change. The port methanol inventory increased by 2.22 tons to 145.75 tons, a 1.55% change [3]. - **Production**: The weekly production decreased by 2.65 tons to 200.89 tons, a - 1.30% change [3]. - **Profit**: The profit from Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production decreased by 17.20 yuan/ton to - 268.8 yuan/ton, a - 6.84% change; the profit from North China coke - oven gas - based methanol production decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 77 yuan/ton, a - 28.04% change; the profit from Southwest natural - gas - based methanol production decreased by 28 yuan/ton to - 266 yuan/ton, a - 11.76% change [3]. - **Downstream开工率**: The downstream acetic acid production start - up rate increased by 2.27 percentage points to 80.67%, a 2.90% change; the downstream olefin production start - up rate decreased by 1.78 percentage points to 85.15%, a - 2.05% change [3]. Specific Market Analysis - **Spot and Futures Markets**: The port methanol market fluctuated last week, with the Jiangsu price ranging from 2180 - 2250 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 89.92%, a 1.31% week - on - week decrease. The average weekly profit of coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia was - 268.80 yuan/ton, a - 6.84% week - on - week and - 496.01% year - on - year change; the average profit of coal - based production in Shandong was - 176.80 yuan/ton, a + 10.07% week - on - week and - 228.21% year - on - year change [8]. - **Demand**: As of January 22, 2026, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 44.38%, a 9.46 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased as some previously - overhauled plants increased their loads [10]. - **Inventory**: As of January 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 145.75 tons, a 2.22 - ton week - on - week increase and a 52.78 - ton year - on - year increase, a 56.77% year - on - year change [12]. - **Position**: As of January 23, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in the methanol futures market was 637,491, an increase of 3,813, and the short - position volume was 740,702, a decrease of 22,202. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [15].

地缘+化工板块推动，甲醇偏强运行 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2026年1月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率平稳，截止1月22日，鄂市煤矿开工率73%，榆林地区煤矿开工率50%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯地 区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量420万吨附近，需求平稳，坑口价止跌窄幅反弹。供应端，煤 制甲醇利润在320-350元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开 工下降，外盘整体开工低位，欧美市场小幅上涨，内外价差稳定，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗12月装货71，非伊货源减量，1月进口预 期120左右。需求端，MTO装置开工率大幅下滑，兴兴69万吨/年MTO装置停车；南京诚志1期29.5万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，其配 套60万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行；2期60万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，江苏斯尔邦80万吨/年MTO装置停车；天津渤化60万吨/年（MTO） 装置负荷7成；宁波富德60万吨/年DMTO装置停车。库存方面，封航进口到港略 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.23」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2605合约短线关注前期高点附近压力，暂以观望为主。 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场震荡整理运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2180-2250元/吨，广东价 格波动在2180-2240元/吨。内地甲醇价格持续下行，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1787- 1835元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2115-2115元/吨。宏观情绪溢价消散，国产现货供应充 裕，中下游环节库存高企，需求季节性淡季等利空犹存，节前企业积极降价排库为主。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量多于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量减少。 随着节前排库的进行，本周内地企业库存小幅下降，港口库存略有积累，江苏沿江主流库区提货 良好，少量卸货导致库存下降，而浙江烯烃目前均处停车，外轮集中卸货导致库存积累；华南港 口库存呈现累库，进口及 ...

2026 年 01 月 23 日 甲醇：跟随化工板块上行 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,260 | 2,209 | 5 1 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,232 | 2,215 | 1 7 | | | 甲醇主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 1,076,253 | 1,195,172 | -118919 | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 817,171 | 848,962 | -31791 | | 期货市场 | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,675 | 8,075 | -400 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 2,402,542 | 2,646, ...

2026年1月19日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位，震荡偏弱 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场震荡整理运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2230-2290元/吨，广 东价格波动在2210-2250/吨。部分库区提货偏弱，但整体外轮卸货量少，港口甲醇库存较大幅下降，但目前 库存仍处高位，且由于下游利润不佳，需求偏弱，短期内高库存状态难有缓解，对市场形成压制，港口甲醇 市场震荡整理。内地甲醇价格延续走跌，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1830-1838元/吨；下游东营接 货价格波动区间2105-2118元/吨。虽周内西北烯烃外采，港口价格走高利好下，但基于企业高库存及下游弱 需求压制下，市场延续疲软。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气落地，1月份港口到货预 期下降，本周甲醇下游整体需求预计较稳。甲醇供应充裕，港口库存高位上升，本周预期有所下降。预计甲 醇价格近期震荡偏弱运行，05合约上方压力2275一线。 关注因素：1.甲醇开工变化；2.甲醇港口库存变化。 | 甲醇 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The equity market sentiment is temporarily stable, causing the commodity index to decline from its high, and methanol follows the index correction. In the medium term, methanol is gradually entering a de - stocking pattern, and the fundamentals may support the overall price of methanol. Therefore, the upward and downward space of methanol is relatively limited [2][4]. - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are neutral, and the production profit remains at a low level. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan. The cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol is gradually stabilizing around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, and the cost side provides support for the lower valuation of methanol [4]. - Regarding trading strategies, in the short term, methanol is expected to fluctuate. The resistance level for the 05 contract is 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton, and the support level is 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread may present a positive spread pattern, and the spread between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary - Production: From January 9th to 15th, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a decrease of 6,990 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0301 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 90.87%, a decrease from the current period. The planned maintenance and production cuts next week involve more production capacity than the recovery, which may lead to a decrease in capacity utilization and production [4]. - Inventory: As of January 14th, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.63%. The significant reduction in port inventory was mainly due to the small total unloading volume. The visible foreign vessel unloading was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was 125,000 tons. The提货 volume in the main storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu was okay, while the提货 volume in other social storage areas in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was average. Although there were new terminal shutdowns in Zhejiang, the inventory decreased significantly due to less unloading. The inventory in South China ports continued to decline. In Guangdong, there were small amounts of imports and domestic arrivals during the week, and the提货 volume in the main storage areas was stable, resulting in inventory reduction. In Fujian, with the supply from imports and domestic trade and the downstream consumption on demand, the inventory also decreased [4]. - Demand - Olefins: Next week, MTO plants will operate stably with no obvious change plans, and the weekly average operating rate will decline [4]. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, after Chongqing Wanlilai starts production next week, it plans to produce products, and the overall capacity utilization rate may increase compared with the previous period. For glacial acetic acid, Jiantao is expected to resume normal operation next week, and other factories have no planned maintenance, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, Liuyang Jingang plans to restart next week, and the supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may increase. For chlorides, due to the production reduction of plants in the Shandong region in the next period, the overall capacity utilization rate may decline, and attention should be paid to the recovery of Jinling and Luxi plants [4]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of 11:30 on January 14th, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [4]. Price and Spread - The content provides multiple price - related graphs, including the basis, month - spread, and warehouse receipt of methanol in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange from 2020 to 2026; domestic spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, Lunan region, and Taicang; international spot prices in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB; and port - inland price differences such as Taicang - Hebei, Taicang - Sichuan and Chongqing, Taicang - Henan, and Taicang - Lunan [7][12][16][20]. Supply - Production and Operating Rate - Overall: The content shows the daily production and capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol from 2018 to 2026, as well as the daily capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol [25][26]. - By Process: It shows the weekly production of methanol from different processes in China from 2018 to 2026, including coke - oven gas - to - methanol, coal - single - methanol, natural - gas - to - methanol, and coal - co - methanol [28][29]. - By Region: It shows the daily capacity utilization rate of methanol in different regions of China from 2018 to 2026, including the northwest, southwest, east, and central regions [31][32][33]. - Import - related: It includes the monthly import volume of Chinese methanol from 2020 to 2025, the daily import cost, weekly arrival volume, and daily import profit from 2020 to 2026 [35][36][37][38]. - Cost: It shows the daily production cost of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2026, including coal - based in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, coke - oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural - gas - based in Chongqing [39][40][41]. - Profit: It shows the daily production profit of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2026, including coal - based in Shandong, coke - oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural - gas - based in Chongqing [43][44][45]. Demand - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the daily capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and MTBE export - oriented plants in China from 2018 to 2026 [47][48][51][52]. - Downstream Profit: It shows the daily production profit of methanol - to - olefins in the east and Shandong regions, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu from 2020 to 2026 [55][56][59][60][61]. - Procurement Volume - MTO: It shows the procurement volume of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises in China, the east, northwest, and central regions from 2020 to 2026 [63][64][65][66]. - Traditional Downstream: It shows the procurement volume of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China, the north, east, and southwest regions from 2020 to 2026 [68][69][70][71]. - Traditional Downstream Inventory: It shows the inventory of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China, the northwest, Shandong, and south - China regions from 2020 to 2026 [73][74][75][76]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the weekly factory inventory of Chinese methanol and its inventory in the east, northwest, and Inner Mongolia regions from 2018 to 2026 [78][79][80][81]. - Port Inventory: It shows the weekly port inventory of Chinese methanol and its inventory in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 to 2026 [83][84][85].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled 'Demand Expectation Reduction, Methanol in Weak Oscillation - Guoxin Futures Methanol Weekly Report' and dated January 18, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Review 2.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spreads - The main methanol contract MA2605 closed at 2,239 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 0.27%, an increase of 11,000 lots in positions, and a total position of 820,000 lots [6] 2.2 Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Spreads between Production and Sales Areas - The coastal methanol market slightly declined this week, and the inland market also had a narrow decline. The weekly average price in Taicang was 2,246 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week, and the weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 1,848 yuan/ton, a 0.35% decrease [9] 2.3 Methanol Foreign Prices and Spreads between Domestic and Foreign Markets - For foreign markets, the reference negotiation price for non-Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month is 254 - 269 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation price for Iranian cargoes arriving in the near - far - month is +0.5 - 2.4%. The European methanol market was stable this week, with a reference price of 260 - 265 euros/ton and a few transactions at 260 euros/ton [12] Group 3: Methanol Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Methanol Operating Rate - As of January 15, the overall operating rate of domestic methanol plants was 77.91%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points from the previous week and 1.69 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate in the northwest region was 89.45%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week and 1.75 percentage points higher than the same period last year [16] 3.2 Methanol Import and Export Volumes - No specific data provided in the given text 3.3 Methanol Port Inventories - The coastal methanol inventory this week was 1.432 million tons, a decrease of 30,500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.09%. The available methanol supply in coastal areas was 688,000 tons. The unloading speed of imported ships was slow, leading to a narrow decline in coastal inventory. It is expected that the arrival volume of imported ships in China in mid - to - late January will be 740,000 tons [23] 3.4 Crude Oil and Natural Gas - The domestic thermal coal market weakened from strong this week, and the market sentiment cooled. The production of coal mines in producing areas was stable, and the downstream procurement rhythm was first fast and then slow, putting pressure on pit - mouth prices [27] 3.7 Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream - The weighted operating rate of the overall methanol downstream was 74.2%, a decrease of 4.4% from the previous week, and the weighted operating rate of the traditional downstream was 55.5%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous week [29] 3.8 Methanol Downstream - MTO - The average operating rate of methanol - to - olefin plants this week was 80.75%, a decrease of 4.67 percentage points from the previous week. The average operating rate of MTO plants using externally purchased methanol was 70.03%, a decrease of 8.85 percentage points from the previous week [39] Group 4: Market Outlook - On the domestic supply side, the operating rate of methanol plants slightly decreased due to the maintenance of Henan Zhongxin and Shanxi Lubao. The coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly this week. In terms of demand, more olefin plants carried out maintenance due to profit issues, and the operating rate of externally purchased MTO plants decreased by 8.85 percentage points to 70%. The overall market was in a weak consolidation state due to uncertain foreign supply, sellers' reluctance to sell at low prices, downstream resistance to high prices, and the expectation of weakening demand [41]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （ 大越期货投资咨询部 1.5-1.9 金泽彬 ） 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：后期国内甲醇市场整体呈偏弱态势，区域走势分化明确。内地方面，当前内地甲醇开工处于 绝对高位水平，而冬季为传统下游需求淡季，叠加下游用户原料库存普遍处于高位，部分下游存在压车现 象，尤其是港口部分烯烃装置有停车计划，需求还将进一步弱化，对业者情绪压制明显。根据历年经验来 看，春节前上游甲醇工厂继续维持低库存仍有出货需求，缺乏利好驱动，后期内地甲醇不排除回落可能。港 口方面，宏观面，资金和情绪撤退引发化工板块集体涨后回调。基本面来看，海外发货和库存下降逻辑仍 在，底部（前低）支撑仍在；但如果下游停车或降负陆续兑现，需求萎缩下 ...

研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面宽幅震荡，最终报收 2263（+18/+0.8%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1880 元/吨，北线报价 1840 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1870 元/吨，山西地区报价 1980 元/吨，河南地区报价 2070 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2140 元/吨，鲁北报价 2100 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2080 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2100 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 22100 元/吨，宁波报价 2290 元/吨，广州报价 2190 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20260103-20260109）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 867899 吨，较上周回升 26800 吨，装置产能利用率为 59.49%，较上周回升 1.84%。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 320 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开工下降，外盘整体 开 ...

2026年1月 地缘扰动，甲醇坚挺 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、核心观点及交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率平稳，截止1月7日，鄂市煤矿开工率73%，榆林地区煤矿开工率50%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯地 区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量420万吨附近，需求平稳，坑口价止跌窄幅反弹。供应端，煤 制甲醇利润在320-350元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非伊开 工下降，外盘整体开工低位，欧美市场小幅上涨，内外价差稳定，东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗12月装货71，非伊货源减量，1月进口预 期120左右。需求端，MTO装置开工率回升，兴兴69万吨/年MTO装置稳定；南京诚志1期29.5万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，其配套60 万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行；2期60万吨/年MTO装置负荷不满，江苏斯尔邦80万吨/年M ...