交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-17甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 利空： 1.前期停车装置恢复：内蒙古东华等。 1、基本面：多空交织下预计本周甲醇市场维持震荡整理。内地方面，内地甲醇工厂暂无库存压力，但内地甲醇开工处 于高位水平，叠加内蒙大型甲醇项目计划再度重启，且部分上游工厂表现出强烈的出货意愿，供应端也暂无缺口。需求 来看，传统下游逐步进入需求淡季，但新增需求亮点显著：联泓新建45万吨/年烯烃装置计划在12月10日投产。同时， 冬季北方地区雨雪天气频发可能影响运输效率，销区下游企业为规避原料供应风险原料库存保持高位，但期补库需求仍 存，形成对价格的隐性支撑。港口方面，港口库存虽然延 ...

需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，上周青海盐湖烯烃装置负荷提升，烯烃行业整体开工提升，宁 波富德后期预期停车检修，整体开工率预计有所下降。 库存方面，截至2025年12月10日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在123.44万吨，较上一期数据减少11.5万吨。 其中，华东地区去库，库存减少10.82万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少0.68万吨。 12月11日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，甲醇期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约小幅 上涨1.41%，报2083.00元/吨。 供应方面，恒泰期货指出，当前伊朗终于开启了限气停车模式，但前期高位的开工支撑11月装船量再创 新高，目前在途货物仍有120万吨附近，且周末仍有船货在装并准备发出。虽12月非伊抵港量将大减， 但仍难敌伊朗货的充足供应。因此，12月甲醇进口供应继续延续高预期，但卸货情况仍需边走边看，随 着一些北方码头也开启了甲醇卸货业务，不排除12月中国沿海的中东主力区域月度卸货量将再创新高。 对于后市走势，光大期货表示，伊朗装置停车将导致12月中下旬至1月到港下滑，MTO装置检修和新投 产抵消，因此港口库存大概在今年12月中旬至明年1月初进入去库阶段，但由于 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇2601： 2025-12-10甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 1、基本面：多空交织下预计本周甲醇市场维持震荡整理。内地方面，内地甲醇工厂暂无库存压力，但内地甲醇开工处 于高位水平，叠加内蒙大型甲醇项目计划再度重启，且部分上游工厂表现出强烈的出货意愿，供应端也暂无缺口。需求 来看，传统下游逐步进入需求淡季，但新增需求亮点显著：联泓新建45万吨/年烯烃装置计划在12月10日投产。同时， 冬季北方地区雨雪天气频发可能影响运输效率，销区下游企业为规避原料供应风险原料库存保持高位，但期补库需求仍 存，形成对价格的隐性支撑。港口方面，港口库存虽然延续小库但依旧高位，下游需求一般，浙江MTO装置 ...

综述：震荡承压 国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年12月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 02 资料来源：钢联，国泰君安期货研究 基差，月差，仓单 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 CZCE：甲醇：基差（日） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 400 500 600 元/吨 1-5月差 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-03甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：后期甲醇市场或区域分化显著，整体呈现出南强北弱的格局。内地方面，随着久泰甲醇装置重启，后期烯 烃需求预期缩量，产区供需格局预期转弱，西北甲醇后续上涨动力受限。而销区来看，需求端增量逻辑明确：阳煤烯烃 计划12月初重启，联泓新建烯烃项目预计12月上旬开车；同时，港口与河南至鲁北套利空间关闭后，销区本地供应补充 受限，供需偏紧格局将进一步凸显，南方销区价格支撑力较强，有望持续强于北方产区。港口方面，12月进口船期比11 月有明显增量，鉴于后续密集的进口到港船期和临近交割月巨大的仓单和现货压力，暂时对本轮甲醇涨势持 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.28」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2601合约短线预计在2080-2170区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 甲醇期货价格走势 郑州甲醇期货价格走势 • 本周郑州甲醇主力合约价格震荡收涨，当周主力合约期价+6.54%。 4 来源：博易大师 「 期货市场情况」 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场止跌反弹，其中江苏价格波动区间在1990-2110元/吨，广东价格波 动在1980-2080元/吨。内地甲醇价格上涨，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1985-1990元/ 吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2155-2175元/吨。港口价格走高且套利内地空间收窄，跌价内地 供需矛盾不大影响，企业出货良好，下游买涨心态浓厚。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量少于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量增加。 本周部分预售下周期货量，叠加烯烃企业外采量略缩，内地 ...

研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇向好驱动不足 华龙期货投资咨询部 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 证监许可【2012】1087 号 摘要： 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，甲醇供需延续弱势，甲醇期货继续下跌，至周五下午 收盘，甲醇加权收于 2036 元/吨，较前一周下跌 1.97%。 【基本面】 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 上周，国内甲醇装置复产多于检修，甲醇产量再次上升，供 给端支撑依旧乏力。上周甲醇下游烯烃开工率小幅上升，甲醇下 游需求总体平稳。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存下降， 企业待发订单量上升，显示甲醇下游刚需仍在。上周港口甲醇在 刚需及货源倒流内地的支撑下，港口甲醇库存下降较为明显，但 总体仍在高位，港口甲醇库存对价格仍形成压力。利润方面，随 着甲醇现货价格持续下降，上周甲醇企业利润继续下滑。综合来 看，甲醇基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇现货价仍然弱势。 【后市展望】 后续来看，甲醇 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the methanol industry. Core Viewpoints - Due to lackluster demand and persistent supply pressure, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. Inland, the market will likely remain in a stalemate, while ports may experience a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Overall, methanol prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, with MA2601 operating in the range of 1990 - 2055 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The report predicts that methanol prices will be weak and fluctuate this week. MA2601 will operate between 1990 - 2055. The inland market will be in a stalemate, and the port market may be bottom - strong oscillating [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventories are low, new acetic acid devices are put into production, and northwest CTO plants purchase methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the off - season, MTBE operation rate has declined, coal - to - methanol has profit and is actively selling, and some producers' inventories are accumulating [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2020 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of 4, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The futures closing price is 2016 yuan/ton [5][8]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 124.39 million tons, a decrease of 3.51 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 4.24 million tons to 72.35 million tons [5]. - **Operation Rate**: The national weighted average operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all declined [8]. - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit is - 63 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol profit is - 40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit is 113 yuan/ton [20]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained stable this week. The production profits of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have increased, while the production profit of formaldehyde has decreased slightly [30][34][37][42][47]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and losses [58]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low rate. Some devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., are operating normally, and some devices in Qatar are under maintenance [59]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic MTO/MTP devices are operating stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production increase [60].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-20甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：需求暂无亮点以及供应压力犹存，预计本周国内甲醇市场震荡整理为主。内地方面，产区尤其是内蒙北线 甲醇工厂库存紧张，加之当前价格整体处于底部空间，多数贸易商做空谨慎对价格有支撑作用。但同时，内地甲醇开工 处于高位，区域间货源流通活跃，进口货源倒流入鲁南外甚至部分流入鲁北，供应仍然充裕，但销区需求支撑一般，贸 易商暂未有持货意愿，预计本周内地行情僵持整理。港口方面，基本面来看，暂时注入海外供应减量的锚点，市场心态 有所转变，但实质上缺乏反转上行的支撑条件，预计本周港口甲醇市场或底部偏强震荡等待反弹契机，关注伊朗装置 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for methanol currently lacks highlights, and supply pressure persists. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate this week. The inland market is likely to remain in a stalemate, while the port market may experience a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Overall, the methanol price is expected to be weak and volatile, with MA2601 oscillating between 2000 - 2065 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol show that the inland market is expected to be in a stalemate, and the port market may be bottom - strong. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is bearish, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile this week [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some domestic and Iranian devices have reduced production or are shut down, some acetic acid devices have been put into production or are planned to be put into production, and some northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde industry has entered the off - season, MTBE operation has declined, coal - to - methanol has a profit margin and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2025 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The futures closing price is 2030 yuan/ton [5][8]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons [5]. - **Market Price Changes**: The spot prices of methanol in most domestic regions have declined to varying degrees this week. The CFR price of imported methanol and the price of methanol in Southeast Asia have also decreased [8][9][24]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol has decreased, the profit of natural gas - to - methanol has remained unchanged, and the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol has decreased. The production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have changed to varying degrees, and the MTO production profit has increased [20][35][38][43][48]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, parking, or load reduction, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. [58]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian and other overseas methanol devices are in the process of restarting, operation, or maintenance, such as ZPC in Iran and QAFAC in Qatar [59]. - **MTO Devices**: Some MTO devices in Northwest and other regions are operating stably, while some are in a state of parking or load reduction, such as Qinghai Salt Lake and Gansu Huating [60].