Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for J&T Express (01519.HK) [1] Core Views - J&T Express reported a significant year-on-year increase of 66% in parcel volume in Southeast Asia for Q2, with an average daily volume of 18.5 million parcels [1][3] - The overall average daily parcel volume for the group reached 81.2 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.5% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the strong growth of e-commerce platforms like TikTok in Southeast Asia, which is projected to reach a GMV of $128.4 billion by 2024 [1][2] - J&T Express has maintained its position as the leading express operator in Southeast Asia, with a market share of 28.6% in 2024, up 3.2 percentage points from 2023 [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q2, J&T Express's daily average parcel volume in Southeast Asia was 18.5 million, a 66% increase year-on-year, while the daily average volume in China reached 61.7 million, growing by 14.7% [1] - For the first half of the year, the total daily average parcel volume for the group was 76.9 million, up 26% year-on-year, with Southeast Asia showing a 57% increase [1] Market Dynamics - TikTok's e-commerce growth in Southeast Asia has been robust, with its GMV increasing from $4.4 billion in 2022 to $16.3 billion in 2023, and projected to reach $22.6 billion in 2024 [2] - J&T Express is positioned to benefit from the increasing parcel volumes driven by e-commerce growth, despite competition from platforms like Shopee and Lazada [2] Financial Projections - The target price for J&T Express is set at HKD 11.16, with the current price at HKD 8.39, indicating a potential upside of 33% [4] - Revenue projections for J&T Express are expected to grow from $10.26 billion in 2024 to $15.52 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.9% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [5] Core Insights - Seanergy's Q1 revenue and net profit declined year-on-year, while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) surged by 30.68%, marking the second-largest weekly increase in history [2][12] - Domestic passenger fuel surcharges for air travel have been reduced, and Beijing Daxing Airport's cumulative import and export volume has exceeded 100 billion yuan [2][14] - Aneng Logistics reported Q1 revenue of 2.587 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while SF Airlines launched its first fifth freedom cargo route [2][19] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - Seanergy's Q1 revenue was $2.4206 million, down 36.8% year-on-year, with a net loss of $6.829 million [2][12] - The SCFI increased to 2,072.71 points, up 30.68% week-on-week, driven by significant price hikes in major routes [2][13] - Domestic air travel fuel surcharge adjustments took effect on June 5, 2025, potentially boosting passenger willingness to travel [2][14] - Daxing Airport's cumulative import and export volume reached 102 billion yuan, highlighting its growing role in international trade [15] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo prices showed a stable trend in May 2025, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4,444 points, down 10.3% year-on-year [23] - Domestic cargo flight operations decreased by 1.67% year-on-year in April 2025, while international flights increased by 25.08% [31] - The SCFI reported a week-on-week increase of 30.68%, while the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 5.74% [38][41] 3. Company Performance - Aneng Logistics achieved Q1 revenue of 2.587 billion yuan, with a net profit of 228 million yuan, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year increase [19][20] - SF Airlines launched its first international cargo route to Canada, enhancing its global logistics network [21] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the industrial goods export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy, and Huamao Logistics [3] - It also highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy sectors and cruise shipping [3]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery sector is experiencing increased performance uncertainty, but there are opportunities for valuation recovery among leading e-commerce express companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, driven by market share growth and cyclical bottoming of express delivery services [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Prospects - The express delivery business volume is expected to grow over 20% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024 and 2025, driven by structural demand growth from factors like small parcelization, reverse logistics, and new models such as live e-commerce and community group buying [2] - The trend of strong growth in business volume is likely to continue into 2025, supported by policies to boost domestic demand and support from e-commerce platforms [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Price competition is expected to intensify in the first four months of 2025, with a year-on-year decline in single ticket revenue of 8.3%, reflecting increased focus on market share among leading companies [3] - Despite the intensified price competition, it is anticipated that healthy competition will prevail, aided by regulatory measures against malicious competition and the lack of large-scale capital expenditures by express companies [3] Group 3: Performance of Leading Companies - Leading e-commerce express companies maintain strong competitive advantages due to asset barriers, cash reserves, and profitability, demonstrating resilience in price competition [4] - Zhongtong Express showed stable performance in Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in market share, and attention is needed on whether market share will rebound in the second half of the year [4] - The leading position and potential for improved profitability of direct-operated companies are expected to provide more certain returns for investors [4]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [1] - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2025 was 10.892 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.5% year-on-year increase [1] - The operating cash flow net amount reached 2.363 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3% [1] Operational Metrics - The company handled a total express delivery volume of 8.539 billion pieces in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [1] - The market share stood at approximately 18.9%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, maintaining the leading position in the industry [1] - The average revenue per piece of express delivery was 1.19 yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year [2] Cost and Profitability - The cost per piece of express delivery was approximately 0.68 yuan, a decrease of 12.0% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit per piece was 0.51 yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year [2] - The adjusted net profit per piece was 0.265 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% [2] Market Outlook - The company aims for a package volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion pieces for 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [2] - The company is focused on high-quality business volume growth while ensuring reasonable profits and strengthening infrastructure [2] - The express delivery industry continues to have growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [3] Profit Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is 10.324 billion yuan, 11.655 billion yuan, and 13.388 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.42%, 12.89%, and 14.87% respectively [3] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic express delivery market, with expectations for steady growth in volume and profits [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue decreased by 8.0% year-on-year to 1.19 yuan, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and route optimization [4] Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for a package volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion parcels in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24%, which is expected to further consolidate its leading market position [5] - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6][7] - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow and profitability, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 10.324 billion, 11.655 billion, and 13.388 billion yuan, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a total revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% increase year-on-year, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue was 1.19 yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and optimized route planning [4] Market Position and Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for high-quality volume growth, targeting a parcel volume of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion in 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 20% to 24% [5] - The report indicates that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6] - The company is expected to maintain its leading market position and achieve steady growth in both volume and profit due to its scale and management advantages [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 10.324 billion yuan, 11.655 billion yuan, and 13.388 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.42%, 12.89%, and 14.87% respectively [8] - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express's current valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for significant upside [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the express delivery sector, suggesting that it is currently undervalued and highlighting the growth potential driven by the e-commerce market and new demands in lower-tier markets [61]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry shows strong growth resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 21.6% in business volume for Q1 2025 and a 13.8% increase in total revenue for 2024, reaching 1.4 trillion yuan [1][21]. - Major companies in the sector, including Zhongtong and Shentong, have demonstrated solid revenue growth, with Shentong achieving a remarkable 205% increase in net profit for 2024 [2][34]. - The market share of Zhongtong remains dominant at 19.6% in 2024, leading the sector by a margin of 4.2 percentage points over its closest competitor [2][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery business volume in 2024 reached 1.758 billion pieces, a 21.5% increase year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw 451.4 million pieces, marking a 21.6% increase [11][1]. - The average price per ticket in the express delivery industry faced slight pressure, decreasing by 14.2% in 2024 and 7.7% in Q1 2025 [25][21]. Performance Overview - All major express delivery companies reported steady growth in both business volume and revenue, with Shentong leading in growth rates at 29.8% for 2024 [2][28]. - In terms of revenue, major players like Shunfeng, Shentong, and Yunda achieved revenues of 2.844 billion, 471.7 million, and 485.4 million yuan respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.1%, 15.3%, and 7.9% [34][36]. Asset Layout - Zhongtong possesses the largest fleet of self-owned vehicles and sorting equipment, with over 10,000 self-owned trucks and 95 sorting centers as of 2024 [3][56]. - Capital expenditures for 2024 show an increase for Shentong and Yunda, while Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shunfeng have slowed their capital spending [3][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading e-commerce express delivery companies such as Zhongtong, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu Express, as well as logistics leader Shunfeng, due to the expected recovery in demand in the mid-to-high-end express market [61][62].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - COSCO Shipping Specialised Carriers reported a revenue of 5.196 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.47%, with a net profit of 345 million yuan, up 1.56% [2][12] - HNA Holding achieved a revenue of 65.236 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 11.25% increase, while Guangzhou Baiyun Airport's net profit doubled [2][14] - YTO Express reported a business volume growth of 25.32% in 2024, with a total logistics value of 91 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a 5.7% year-on-year increase [2][18] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - COSCO Shipping Specialised Carriers maintained steady growth despite global shipping market volatility, with a Q1 revenue of 5.196 billion yuan, a 51.47% increase year-on-year [12] - HNA Holding's 2024 revenue reached 65.236 billion yuan, an 11.25% increase, while Guangzhou Baiyun Airport's net profit surged by 109.51% [14][16] - YTO Express's business volume grew by 25.32% in 2024, with a logistics total of 91 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, up 5.7% year-on-year [18][19] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - In April 2025, domestic air cargo flights decreased by 1.67% year-on-year, while international flights increased by 25.08% [33] - The SCFI index for container shipping reported a decrease of 1.66% week-on-week, while the PDCI index for domestic shipping increased by 0.67% [40] - In March 2025, express delivery volume rose by 20.30% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 124.6 billion yuan [51] 3. Company Performance - COSCO Shipping Specialised Carriers added 13 new vessels in Q1 2025, increasing total capacity to 691.5 thousand deadweight tons, a 12.53% increase from the end of 2024 [13] - HNA Holding's passenger transport volume exceeded 68 million in 2024, a 14.36% increase, with international passenger transport volume growing by 132.68% [15] - YTO Express's capital expenditure exceeded 6.7 billion yuan in 2024, focusing on automation upgrades and expanding its logistics network [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Buy" [1] Core Views - ZTO Express reported an adjusted net profit of 10.2 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [2] - The company achieved operating revenue of 44.281 billion yuan in 2024, up 15.3% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 12.92 billion yuan, a 21.7% increase year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes ZTO's leading market share in the express delivery industry, with a focus on maintaining and enhancing its competitive position [5][7] Financial Summary - In 2024, ZTO Express's adjusted net profit was 10.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [2] - The operating revenue for 2024 was 44.281 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.3% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The company’s express delivery volume reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, marking a 12.6% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of approximately 19.4% [3] - The average revenue per package was 1.20 yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 showing an increase to 1.24 yuan, a rise of 11.0% year-on-year [4] - The average cost per package decreased to approximately 0.68 yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, with significant improvements in operational efficiency [4] Operational Insights - ZTO Express aims to achieve a business volume of approximately 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion pieces in 2025, targeting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5] - The company is focusing on service quality, business volume, and profit as its three main priorities for 2025 [5] - The report highlights the ongoing growth potential in the express delivery industry, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [6][7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 is 10.44 billion yuan, 11.78 billion yuan, and 13.51 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 3.58%, 12.81%, and 14.73% [8] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on ZTO's strong market position and expected steady growth in volume and profit [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights ZTO Express's strong market position, with a leading market share of approximately 19.4% in the express delivery sector, despite a slight year-on-year decline of 1.5% [3][5] - The company achieved an adjusted net profit of 10.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [2][4] - ZTO Express is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected business volume for 2025 estimated between 40.8 billion and 42.2 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, ZTO Express reported total revenue of 44.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [2][9] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 10.15 billion yuan, with a quarterly performance in Q4 showing a revenue of 12.92 billion yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year [2][4] - The company’s single-piece express revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year to 1.20 yuan, with Q4 showing a more significant increase of 11.0% to 1.24 yuan [3][4] Operational Metrics - ZTO Express handled 34 billion pieces in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.6% [3][5] - The company’s single-piece express cost decreased by 6.0% year-on-year to approximately 0.68 yuan, benefiting from economies of scale and improved route planning [4] - The adjusted net profit per single piece remained stable at 0.30 yuan for the year, with Q4 showing an increase of 11.2% to 0.28 yuan [4] Market Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, with an estimated industry volume growth of 10-15% in 2025 [7] - ZTO Express is well-positioned to enhance its market share and profitability, supported by its scale and management advantages [8] - The report anticipates that ZTO Express will achieve adjusted net profits of 10.44 billion yuan, 11.78 billion yuan, and 13.51 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [8][9]