智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数跌1.01%，跌270点，报26439点；恒生科技指数跌1.65%。港股早盘成 交1486亿港元。 兴业证券指出，受益于创新药BD出海和融资企稳回升，多家CRO新签订单逐季度加速，项目量实现双 位数增长。CRO概念股集体走高。行业内外需共振，2026年业绩有望进入改善周期。凯莱英(06821)涨 超7%；泰格医药(03347)涨5.9%；昭衍新药(06127)涨4%。 玖龙等多家大型纸企发布调价信息，机构称中国纸企战略核心已转向。纸业股涨幅居前 ，玖龙纸业 (02689)涨9.94%；理文造纸(02314)涨超6%。 印尼控产令持续提振镍价，中伟新材（02579）涨超15%；力勤资源（02245）涨超8%。 金力永磁(06680)涨超5%，消息称中方正研究收紧对日稀土出口许可审查。 英矽智能(03696)再涨超4%创新高，近日宣布与施维雅达成8.88亿美元合作。 硬蛋创新(00400)再涨超12%，公司近期发布自研新品，布局商业航天前沿赛道。 隔夜美股光通信概念股Lumentum大涨超11%，光通信概念反弹。长飞光纤光缆(06869)涨超7%，剑桥科 技(06166)涨超3%。 ...

稀土概念股走低，USA Rare Earth跌超6%，Critical Metals跌5.8%，MP Materials跌2.6%。消息面上，特 朗普在圣诞夜下令对尼日利亚实施空袭，标志着美国与这一西非最大经济体的紧张关系急剧升级。分析 指出，虽然反恐是公开的理由，但此次行动背后交织着复杂的经济利益链条，目标可能在直指尼日利亚 石油自主能力和稀土矿产。(格隆汇) ...

周四，稀土概念股走强，Perpetua Resources(PPTA.US)大涨10%，TMC the metals(TMC.US)涨超4%，克 利夫兰克里夫(CLF.US)涨超3%，MP Materials(MP.US)、USA Rare Earth(USAR.US)涨超1%。消息面 上，12月9日，Perpetua Resources宣布与爱达荷国家实验室合作建设模块化试点加工厂，旨在恢复锑等 关键矿物并用于国防应用，提升国内防御矿产加工能力。公司拥有Stibnite Gold项目，预计在矿山生命 周期内生产近1.5亿磅锑，支持国防矿物供应链和军事规格锑三硫化物生产。 ...

Market Overview - On December 2, major indices collectively declined, with lithium battery and rare earth sectors leading the drop [1] - Precious metals such as gold, silver, and copper experienced price fluctuations, causing related ETFs to retreat [1] ETF Performance - As of 11:20, the following ETFs showed declines: - Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 0.18% - Gold Stock ETF (159562) down 1.06% - Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) down 1.22% [1] - Notable declines in individual stocks included: - Huaxi Nonferrous down 6.9% - Yahua Group, Tianqi Lithium, China Rare Earth, and Guocheng Mining also saw significant drops [1] Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo hinted at a potential interest rate hike, indicating possible actions in the December meeting [1] - The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November in China fell to 49.9, heightening market caution [1] Analyst Insights - FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia noted that tightening monetary policy, particularly from the Bank of Japan, and differing opinions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pose risks to gold prices [1] - Despite these risks, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, suggesting a potential upward trend for gold prices [1]

一、稀土巨头的阳谋与散户的困局 欧洲稀土巨头索尔维最近干了件大事。他们不仅跟美国两家磁铁制造商签了供应协议，还要扩建法国工厂。这事儿放在全球供应链重构的背景下，简直就是 一记重拳。但有意思的是，当我打开股吧论坛，发现大多数人还在争论明天大盘是涨是跌。 菲利普·凯伦这个老狐狸说得直白："美国客户已经准备好签合同了。"言下之意就是钱到位了。可咱们的散户朋友呢？还在为要不要补仓纠结得睡不着觉。 这让我想起十八年前刚接触量化系统时的自己——盯着分时图上的每一根波动线，活像个赌场里数牌的菜鸟。 二、牛市幻觉与真实世界的鸿沟 都说牛市来了猪都能飞，但现实是多数人连猪都不如。为什么？因为大多数人根本分不清什么是"看得见的机会"，什么是"抓得住的机会"。就像现在稀土概 念炒得火热，但真正能吃到肉的，早在一个月前就通过机构资金流向锁定了目标。 我见过太多人在牛市中赚过又吐回去的故事。上周还有个老友炫耀他抓到了涨停板，结果这周就哭诉"刚解套又套牢"。问题出在哪？他们总把K线图当圣 经，却不知道机构早就在量化数据里留下了蛛丝马迹。 | ∞ 机构库存 高度活跃: 增加 | LULL LLL LLL LLL P | | | " | | ...

Group 1 - The rare earth sector showed mixed performance on Friday, with MP Materials (MP.US) rising over 5.7% and Energy Fuels (UUUU.US) increasing by 1% [1] - Conversely, USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) experienced a decline of more than 1.6%, while NioCorp Developments (NB.US) fell over 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector experienced a significant rally on the 30th, with notable stock price increases among various companies, indicating a potential recovery in the market despite ongoing challenges [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jiuling Technology surged over 14%, while Zhongke Magnetic Materials and Benlang New Materials rose more than 7%, and companies like Zhongkuang Resources, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Jinli Permanent Magnet saw increases exceeding 5% [1] - The current rare earth prices are approaching the cost lines for some enterprises, suggesting limited room for further declines, with expectations of a gradual stabilization in prices [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - On the demand side, the growth in production and sales of new energy vehicles is showing signs of marginal decline, while wind power installations are expected to release potential [1] - Recent air conditioning production data indicates that future growth rates will remain sluggish, and the decline in elevator production has narrowed, reflecting an overall positive trend in the industrial sector [1] - On the supply side, the industry landscape is becoming increasingly polarized, with leading companies gaining an advantage [1] Group 3: Valuation and Policy Impact - Current absolute and relative historical valuation levels are supported by loose liquidity, industrial policies, and strategic value positioning of the rare earth sector [1] - New export restrictions on rare earths highlight their strategic value, supporting high industry valuations, although uncertainties from US-China tensions and export control policies may exert downward pressure on short-term demand and valuations [1] - Continuous performance improvement is necessary for valuation digestion, with the sustainability of rare earth magnetic material prices and industry profit margins heavily reliant on supply-demand improvements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector has seen a significant surge, with the mining ETF (561330) rising over 90% year-to-date, driven by recent export control policies and price adjustments from major rare earth companies [1][2]. Policy Impact - Recent announcements regarding export controls on rare earth items and technologies have been made, aiming to strengthen China's dominance in the global rare earth market and enhance its pricing power [2]. - The export control measures are expected to solidify China's position as a "rules power" in the rare earth sector, moving from being merely a resource-rich country [2]. Market Dynamics - Following the export controls implemented in April, rare earth prices rebounded due to factors such as easing US-China tariff tensions and increased demand [2]. - The domestic and international demand for rare earth materials is anticipated to grow, with a potential whitelist system expected to be introduced, which may lead to a new round of price increases [2]. ETF Performance - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index by over 10% year-to-date, attributed to a more concentrated selection of leading stocks [3]. - The mining ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which has a higher concentration of leading stocks, with the top ten constituents accounting for 56.98% of the index [3]. Sector Composition - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index has a higher proportion of gold, copper, and rare earths at 56.2%, compared to 52.5% in the CSI Nonferrous Index, indicating a stronger alignment with high-demand sectors [5]. Future Outlook - The copper supply remains tight, which is expected to support copper prices in the medium term [11]. - Gold is anticipated to see increased demand as a safe-haven asset due to global economic uncertainties, with long-term price support expected from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [11]. - The mining ETF (561330) currently has a scale of 813 million, ranking first among similar ETFs, providing superior liquidity and investment opportunities in the gold, copper, and rare earth sectors [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market showed positive performance with significant increases in major indices, while certain sectors experienced declines and others saw strong gains [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4016.33 points, up by 0.70%, with a trading volume of 968.216 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13691.38 points, up by 1.95%, with a trading volume of 1287.814 billion [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3324.27 points, up by 2.93%, with a trading volume of 616.646 billion [1] Sector Analysis - Banking and liquor sectors experienced declines [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong gains [1] - Other sectors such as brokerage, coal, insurance, electricity, and oil also saw upward movements [1] - The photovoltaic industry chain stocks surged, while lithium mines, solid-state batteries, and rare earth concepts were active [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on October 28, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures [2]. - It also analyzes the performance of various futures on October 27, 2025, and gives the expected trend and price range of the main continuous contracts in October 2025 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strong and volatile on October 28, 2025. For example, IF2512 has resistance at 4715 and 4730 points, and support at 4684 and 4668 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2512 and thirty - year TL2512 are likely to have wide - range fluctuations on October 28, 2025 [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2512 will be weak and have wide - range fluctuations, while silver futures AG2512 will be weak and volatile on October 28, 2025 [2][3]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. have different trends. For example, copper futures CU2512 will have wide - range fluctuations, and aluminum futures AL2512 will be weak and volatile on October 28, 2025 [3]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, PVC, etc. will be weak and volatile on October 28, 2025 [1][6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Palm oil will be weak and volatile, while soybean meal will be strong and volatile on October 28, 2025 [1][6][7]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - Various domestic and international macro - events are reported, such as government meetings, policy announcements, and economic data releases. For example, the State Council leaders' participation in important meetings, central bank's monetary policy operations, and national economic data like industrial enterprise profits and social logistics costs [8][9][10]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - On October 27, 2025, international precious metals futures generally declined, and the prices of some base metals and energy futures had different changes. For example, COMEX gold futures fell 3.40%, and COMEX silver futures fell 3.61% [12]. - Some industry - related news is also reported, such as LBMA considering changing the frequency of silver inventory announcements and OPEC +'s plan to increase crude oil production [13]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, various stock index futures showed an upward trend, with support from moving averages. For example, IF2512 rose 1.24% (1.07% based on the closing price) [14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The central bank conducted 3373 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1483 billion yuan [36]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2512 had a slight decline on October 27, 2025, while silver futures AG2512 had a slight increase [41][48]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, etc. showed an upward trend on October 27, 2025, with support from moving averages [52][57]. - **Other Futures**: Other futures such as polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, etc. also had different trends on October 27, 2025 [69][73].