最近AI硬件的行情并不是很好，但还好今晚美股的硬件板块表现还可以。高盛最近连续发了几篇关 于光模块和PCB的报告，都没能把旭创和胜宏拉起来 。 市场下跌 的原因可能是多方面的，我们只 能强行找一些可能的原因。 Memory缺的有些夸张 在Macquarie前几天的一个报告中，提到 未来两年DRAM行业的新增产能仅能支持约15GW的AI数据 中心建设 。这一硬性约束将迫使全球雄心勃勃的AI扩建计划出现大规模的延期与重新调度，进而重 塑整个科技硬件供应链的权力格局。这不仅是资金问题，更是物理制造能力的边界问题。 当然我认为这个测算是有些夸张的，请教了韩国那边一个专门做Memory产业研究的朋友，他认为 今 年和明年能够支持20GW和33GW ，但他并没有给我测算过程。 那2025年的装机量就很关键了，根据Visible Alpha的测算， 2025年全球数据中心装机量是17.4GW， 今年能到30.2GW。 | | | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 老水看盘 人心思涨 上证指数今天低开，盘中一度跳水，但最终收出阳十字星，再度刷新 A 股历史记录，连续 15 个交易日收阳。 不过，上证指数今天并未翻红，微跌 0.07% ；深成指下跌 0.5% ，创业板指跌幅最大，达 0.82% 。 昨天尾盘，市场已出现明确信号：中信证券尾盘压盘，中国平安在集合竞价走弱下探。今天这 两大板块均处于跌幅榜前列，其中以中信证券为代表的证券板块开盘后便一路下行，华林证券 跌停，中信证券跌幅超 3% ；保险板块整体走弱，跌幅略高于证券板块，中国平安盘中最大 跌幅达 5% 。银行板块表现同样疲软，整体跌幅约 0.7% ，龙头股工商银行跌幅超 1% ，呈 现破位下杀走势。 尽管三大金融股全线杀跌，但指数仍保持相对强势，核心原因在于大批小盘股、微盘股展开补 涨。小盘股指数今天上涨 2% ，中证 2000 指数收盘涨幅约 1.3% ，几乎未受盘中跳水影 响。今天盘中两点后曾出现一波持续约 20 分钟的跳水，主要由权重指标股调整引发。 个股表现方面，上涨家数达 3568 家，下跌家数仅 1547 家；成交量 2.8 万亿，较昨天略有 缩减；北向资金成交 ...

1、i茅台冲上苹果store购物类APP第一名，第2抖音、第3多多，这说明两件事，一是还是很多人愿意去 抢购1499的茅子，二是苹果手机用户果然高端大气上档次，同时也是消费茅子的主力。 全天成交2.5万亿，有点吓人，中位数涨幅1.1cm，报告各位我跑赢了 3、世纪华通宣布回购3-6亿，用于员工持股计划。虽然这种假回购不如真回购，也就是回购后注销，但 是考虑到公司本来也要给员工发奖金，那相当于就是员工用自己钱来买了公司的股票，依然是利好，所 以股价大涨。 4、盐湖股份预告统计同比+85%，涨停。 5、快手大涨，炒了小半年AI硬件，软件偶尔也能喝口汤了。 6、保险股大涨，平安涨6cm，这个逻辑主要在于存款利润下调后，很多人都搬家来买保险了，去年各 大险司的新增价值都红红火火。 2、由于马杜罗被抓，全球黄金、白银价格上涨，原油价格下跌。委内瑞拉的原油质量并不那么好，是 传说中的重油，需要特殊的设备才能提炼，20几年前委内瑞拉的原油主要都是供美国的，所以"恰好"美 国有丰富的提炼经验，说不定还留着大量的相关设备，这下都能开启了，所以委内瑞拉的原油产量大概 率会增长。 顺便说一嘴，当前委内瑞拉原油产量大约是巅峰时期的五 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 上证指数连拉九根阳线之际，市场曾有 " 九九归一、众望所归 " 的预期，而当第十根阳线出 现时，看似 在 "禅意"上 达成 " 十全十美 " 的走势，但从盘面细节观察，主力操作已显 处 心积虑的 刻意。 今天 这根阳线实体不小，实则为假阳线 —— 因开盘大幅低开，盘中主力拉升后便开始回落。 尽管上证指数最终收阳，但 今天 并未实现实际上涨，且集合竞价阶段微跌 0.16% 。这一微 小跌幅虽近乎微不足道，却打破了此前的连涨 的 "金身" 态势，让这根阳线的本质显露无 遗。 近期瑞士市场多次上演 " 关键时刻跳水后被拉回 " 的戏码：前天盘中两度高位跳水，分别出 现在午盘收盘前与下午两点左右；昨天盘中同样经历两次跳水，幅度虽不大，最终仍勉强收 红。 今天 类似剧情再度上演，盘中至少两次出现跳水迹象， 一次出现在下午 1: 20 左右，另外一 次在下午的 2: 01 左右，这两个时间段抛 盘汹涌猛烈，好在主力在行情即将形成恐慌性下跌 十分完美 盘面消息 沪指今日几乎平收，日线"十连阳"，收报3965.12点；深证成指涨0.49%，收报13604.07 点；创业板指涨0.63% ...

罗永浩为其12月30日“2025年度科技创新分享大会”造势，透露大会上将发布细红线科技内部开发的AI软件。 https://t.co/ATT1ogXYMB ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a 12-month target price of 110.05 CNY, corresponding to a 35x PE for 2026 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of hard alloy CNC tools, with a strong focus on product structure optimization and capacity expansion since its IPO in 2021. The company has seen a revenue recovery in 2025, achieving 771 million CNY in revenue for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 31.9%, and a net profit of 137 million CNY, up 78.4% year-on-year [1][4]. - The demand for CNC tools is closely tied to the manufacturing industry's recovery, with the company positioned to capture market share and improve profitability as the industry stabilizes [4][2]. - The company is actively expanding into high-end CNC tools and has established overseas subsidiaries to enhance its global presence and R&D capabilities [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company specializes in hard alloy CNC tools and has a strong technical team from the industry’s "Huangpu Military Academy," Zhuzhou Diamond. It has expanded its product offerings from CNC blades to complete tools and customized solutions [1][20]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 759 million CNY, with a breakdown of revenue from turning, milling, drilling, and complete tools [14]. 2. Market Dynamics - The CNC tool market is experiencing a dual drive from stable general demand and the upgrade of high-end manufacturing structures. The global market for tools exceeds 200 billion CNY, with significant growth potential from international expansion [2][4]. - The company is focusing on high-end tool innovation and enhancing service for large clients, positioning itself as a leader in domestic high-end replacement [2][3]. 3. Product Development - The company is accelerating the development of humanoid robots and AI software, which can enhance machining efficiency by 5%-30%. This aligns with trends in the humanoid robot industry [3][4]. - The company has seen a significant increase in production capacity and is focusing on high-end product development to meet market demands [19][31]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.05 billion CNY, 1.26 billion CNY, and 1.45 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.3%, 20.0%, and 14.7% respectively. Net profits are expected to reach 180 million CNY, 290 million CNY, and 370 million CNY during the same period [4][5]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to improve significantly, reflecting operational efficiencies and market recovery [31][30]. 5. Competitive Position - The company is well-positioned in the CNC tool market, with a stable share and a focus on high-end products. The competitive landscape is evolving, with opportunities for growth in both domestic and international markets [2][4]. - The company’s strategic initiatives include enhancing R&D investment and expanding its sales network to capture more market share [19][22].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the computer industry is experiencing a significant shift with a focus on three key areas: large models, computing power, and applications, indicating a competitive convergence and accelerated iteration [3][9] - Institutional holdings in the computer sector are at a historical low of 2.4% as of September 30, 2025, suggesting potential for growth in valuations [3][9] - The report anticipates a robust growth trajectory for the computer sector in 2025, characterized by a Q1 peak followed by steady growth [3][9] Summary by Sections Holdings and Valuation - Institutional holdings in the computer industry are at a historical low of 2.4%, indicating room for valuation expansion [3][9] - The PS/PCF valuation metrics suggest that there is still space for growth in the sector [3][9] Fundamental Analysis - A performance inflection point has been observed, with significant profit elasticity and the gradual formation of AI application catalysts [3][9] - The report identifies three major focus areas for 2026: large models, computing power, and applications, all of which are undergoing significant changes [3][9] Model Development - The gap between Chinese and American large models is narrowing, with expectations for further reduction and potential surpassing in certain areas by 2026 [3][9] - Future developments to watch include breakthroughs in long-context limitations, multi-modal and world models, and innovative training methods [3][9] Computing Infrastructure - The report discusses advancements in chip technology, supernodes, and AI infrastructure, indicating a multi-dimensional iteration that is closing the loop between computing power, models, and applications [3][9] - The evolution of chips from merely usable to highly efficient is highlighted, along with improvements in system efficiency through engineering innovations [3][9] AI Software - The software industry is entering an optimal layout window as large model values are being validated across multiple fields [4][9] - A significant number of companies are seeing AI revenue contributions exceeding 10%, marking a technological revolution in the software sector [4][9] - Promising areas for investment include Deep Research, AI programming, multi-modal applications, industry agents, and AI solutions for marketing, office, and finance [4][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of China's software and information technology service industry, indicating steady growth in software business revenue and positive export growth despite a slowdown in profit growth [1] - As of the first ten months of 2025, China's software business revenue reached 125.104 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [1] - The total profit of the software industry was 15.721 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [1] - Software business exports amounted to 510.9 million USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, maintaining positive growth for eight consecutive months [1] Group 2 - The software service index saw a decline of 1.77% as of December 2, 2025, with Aerospace Information leading the gains among component stocks [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the software service index accounted for 61.87% of the total index, with notable companies including iFLYTEK, Kingsoft Office, and Tonghuashun [2] - The industrial software sector is characterized by high technical barriers and high added value, with significant investment and long development cycles [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The turning point for AI software is approaching, with the computer sector showing signs of recovery in revenue and profit, particularly among leading software companies [5][6][7] - Institutional holdings in the computer sector are at historical lows, indicating significant underweighting, which suggests increasing allocation value [5][6] - The performance of major software companies such as Kingsoft Office, Dameng Data, and Foxit Software has been notably strong, indicating a positive trend in the sector [6][8] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of October 27 to October 31, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.43%, while the computer index rose by 1.82 [4][16] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the fund's holding ratio in the computer sector was 2.92%, remaining at historical lows. The total market capitalization of the computer sector accounted for 4.61% of the A-share market [5][12] Revenue and Profit Improvement - In the first three quarters of 2025, the computer sector saw a revenue increase of 3.10% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 3.93%. Cost control measures have significantly improved profit recovery [6][13] AI Model Development - The capabilities of AI models are continuously improving while costs are decreasing, leading to a flourishing application market. For instance, the cost of GPT-5 has dropped significantly compared to its predecessor [7][14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Kingsoft Office, Hehe Information, and others, highlighting their potential benefits from the ongoing trends in the computer sector [8][15]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic software sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by a combination of favorable policies, technological advancements, and increasing market demand, creating a multi-trillion yuan opportunity [4][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic software sector has shown strong performance in Q3, with 79 out of 112 listed companies reporting year-on-year revenue growth, representing 70.5% of the companies [5]. - Notably, AI software and related sectors have outpaced the average growth of the sector, serving as key drivers for the upward trend [5]. - Kingsoft Office reported a revenue of 1.521 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 25.33%, with a net profit of 431 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35.42% [6]. Group 2: Policy and Technological Support - The rise of domestic software is significantly supported by strong government policies, such as the recent guidelines for government procurement favoring domestic products [8]. - The urgency for self-reliance in technology has been heightened by external pressures, including U.S. export controls on critical software [8]. - Domestic software has made substantial technological breakthroughs, moving from isolated advancements to a more integrated competitive ecosystem [8][9]. Group 3: Market Demand Dynamics - Digital transformation has become essential for enterprises, with AI technology creating new demand scenarios [10]. - The government’s push for digital governance and AI applications has opened up substantial market opportunities [11]. - The increasing adoption of AI features by users, as evidenced by the growth in active users of Kingsoft Office's WPS AI, highlights the demand for intelligent office tools [11]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with high technological barriers, stable performance, and strong cash flow, emphasizing the importance of R&D investment and sustainable growth [12]. - Key sectors for investment include the extension of the domestic software industry into finance, energy, and healthcare, as well as the integration of AI technology into various industry applications [13]. - Caution is advised regarding companies with insufficient R&D, misaligned orders and performance, or reliance on a single customer [13]. Group 5: Conclusion - The rise of domestic software not only signifies an industrial upgrade but also reflects the enhancement of national technological capabilities [14]. - As the domestic software market continues to expand, the performance of related companies is expected to improve steadily, increasing their investment value [14].