Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. Although there is a positive factor that the daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized and rebounded, overall, the market is bearish [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant, with high output from alkali plants and the expected commissioning of Yuanying Phase II before the end of the year. The supply of downstream float glass is expected to be disrupted, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period. The basis shows that the futures price is higher than the spot price. The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Impact Factors Summary - **L利多 Factors**: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized and rebounded [3]. - **利空 Factors**: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.81% to 1225 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 0.85% to 1170 yuan/ton, and the main basis remained unchanged at - 55 yuan/ton [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 5. Soda Ash Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 86.89%. The weekly output is 75.76 tons, including 41.98 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a historical high. Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year [18][20][5]. 6. Soda Ash Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 99.78%. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.13 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% has stabilized. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [24][27][5]. 7. Soda Ash Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 8. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the supply - demand balance data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.65% higher than the previous week at 1,229 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe increased by 2.61% to 1,180 yuan/ton. Supply remains at a high level, with expected production of 760,000 tons and an operating rate of 87% next week. The overall supply is abundant as the second - phase project of Yuangxing Energy is expected to be put into operation by the end of the year. Downstream demand is average, mainly on a need - to - buy basis, and the current situation is weak with continuous financial pressure. The daily melting volume of float glass remained stable at 161,300 tons, while that of photovoltaic glass decreased by 100 tons to 88,700 tons. As of October 23, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7021 million tons, a 0.09% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market - The main contract of soda ash futures closed at 1,229 yuan/ton, up 1.65% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,180 yuan/ton, up 2.61%. The main basis was - 49 yuan/ton, down 16.95% [9]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,180 yuan/ton, up 2.61% from the previous week [15]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production is at a historical low, with a profit of - 92.40 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 199 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [18]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.94%. The weekly production was 740,600 tons, including 410,000 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The heavy - production rate was 55.36% [21][23][25]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [26]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 99.78% [29]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, with an operating rate of 76.35% remaining stable [32]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7021 million tons, a 0.09% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [39]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, and other indicators [40]. 4. Influencing Factors Positive Factors The peak maintenance season is approaching this year, and production is expected to decline [5]. Negative Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level [6]. - The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [8]. - The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [8]. 5. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is maintaining a weak and stable operation with little price fluctuation, indicating a supply surplus and moderate demand [2][5][6]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in East China are stable at 1130-1600 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices range from 1250-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - The price index for light soda ash is 1160, unchanged from the previous working day, and the heavy soda ash price index is 1211.43, down 1.43, a decrease of -0.12% [3]. Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1240 CNY/ton and closed at 1209 CNY/ton, with a daily decline of 1.47% [5]. - The market is currently lacking clear directional drivers, with the supply-demand imbalance continuing to exert pressure on prices [5][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply remains high despite some companies undergoing maintenance, and the overall production capacity is substantial, making it difficult to fundamentally change the supply surplus situation [6]. - Demand from downstream industries, particularly glass, has not shown significant improvement, and companies are primarily adopting a cautious purchasing strategy based on actual needs [2][6]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term, with no significant changes anticipated in supply or demand dynamics [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Sino-US trade frictions may intensify; the maintenance volume of soda ash plants is lower than expected, and the second phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is at a high level. The supply of downstream float glass is highly volatile, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,240 yuan/ton, and the basis is -90 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: During the peak maintenance period this year, the production is expected to decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is lower than expected, and the macro利好 is higher than expected [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous value. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous value. The main basis is -90 yuan, an increase of 5.88% from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the ammonia-alkali method in North China is -89.25 yuan/ton, and the profit by the co-production method in East China is -114.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Capacity**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.41%. The weekly production of soda ash is 770,800 tons, including 428,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant expansion of soda ash production capacity, with large-scale production plans each year. The total planned production capacity in 2023 is 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and 7.5 million tons in 2025, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 92.23% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 76.01%. The demand for soda ash from the downstream photovoltaic glass has weakened [27][5]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows that the production capacity, production, import, export, and other data of soda ash have changed over the years, and the supply and demand gap also varies [35].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent decline in soda ash futures prices, indicating a persistent oversupply in the market and pressure on prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Soda ash futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 1289.00 yuan and closing at 1309.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.01% [1]. - The market is characterized by a long-term oversupply, leading to sustained pressure on prices [2][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Institutions highlight that the supply of soda ash is expected to increase due to the resumption of previously offline production facilities, while downstream demand remains weak [3][4]. - The overall inventory levels across the industry chain are high, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the market [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - National Investment Trust expects the soda ash market to remain under pressure due to the ongoing oversupply situation [2]. - Ningzheng Futures predicts short-term fluctuations for the soda ash January contract, with resistance around 1345 yuan [3]. - Southwest Futures advises caution in trading positions due to increased price volatility driven by market speculation [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. The short - term is expected to be mainly in a volatile trend. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [2][5]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high; bearish [2] - **Basis**: Hebei Shahe heavy - quality soda ash spot price is 1260 yuan/ton, SA2601 closing price is 1386 yuan/ton, basis is - 126 yuan, futures are at a premium to the spot; bearish [2] - **Inventory**: National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; neutral [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: Soda ash fundamentals have strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive**: The peak summer maintenance period is coming, and production will decline [3] - **Negative**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5] 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1395 | 1280 | - 115 | | Current Value | 1386 | 1260 | - 126 | | Change Rate | - 0.65% | - 1.56% | 9.57% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe market is 1260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [11] 3.5 Supply in Fundamentals - **Production Profit**: North China ammonia - soda process profit is - 25.60 yuan/ton, East China co - production process profit is - 41 yuan/ton, and soda ash production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14] - **开工率 and Production**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 76.13 tons, including 42.97 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [21] 3.6 Demand in Fundamentals - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [24] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is stable [27] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Photovoltaic glass prices continue to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [33] 3.7 Inventory in Fundamentals National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37]

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant increase in soda ash spot prices has led to improved profitability for some production companies, although most remain in a loss position [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Downstream companies show low acceptance of the recent price increase, primarily focusing on depleting existing inventory with limited procurement intentions [1] - Supply expectations indicate a potential reduction in maintenance among companies in August, which may lead to a recovery in operational load for soda ash producers; however, if anti-involution policies are not implemented, supply is likely to remain ample in August [1] - Demand has seen a notable increase in pending orders due to significant price hikes and speculative trading activity, although profit improvements in float and photovoltaic glass remain limited, weakening the marginal support for soda ash demand [1] - The overall supply-demand balance suggests that the mid-term oversupply situation in the soda ash industry may not change, with ongoing supply pressure [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, limited improvement in terminal demand, and inventory at a high level in the same period [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures decreased by 2.18% to 1,214 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,200 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 65.85% to - 14 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The production profit of heavy soda ash was at the lowest level in the same period in history, with a profit of - 134.30 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 113.50 yuan/ton for the East China combined - soda process [15]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash was 708,900 tons, with heavy soda ash at 400,100 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were large - scale capacity expansions in the soda ash industry. The planned new capacity in 2025 was 7.5 billion tons, with an actual production of 1 billion tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 158,400 tons, and the operating rate was 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide was 1.8634 million tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The rebound of the downstream glass market boosted the sentiment of the soda ash market [3]. - **Negative factors**: High supply of soda ash, limited improvement in terminal demand, inventory at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory is at a high level in the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1241 yuan/ton, up 1.97% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis was - 41 yuan/ton, up 141.18% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1200 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method was - 113.50 yuan/ton, at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash was 70.89 tons, of which heavy soda ash was 40.01 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual planned production of 100 tons in 2025 [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.84 tons, and the operating rate was 75.68%, showing a stable recovery. The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cut production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [28][31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E showed the trends of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, apparent supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences in the soda ash industry, as well as the growth rates of capacity, production, apparent supply, and total demand [35]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The rebound of the downstream glass market boosted the sentiment of the soda ash market [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, terminal demand improvement was limited, and inventory was at a high level in the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern had not been effectively improved [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soda Ash**: Last week, the operating rate and production of soda ash enterprises continued to rise, and the market production - sales rate increased month - on - month. However, the inventory continued to accumulate. The current supply - demand pattern of soda ash is weak, with no improvement in downstream demand, continuous increases in supply and inventory, and a gradual decline in spot prices. The subsequent pattern of increasing supply and weak demand will continue to suppress market confidence. Although the short - term futures price rebounded at a low level due to macro - disturbances, the rebound momentum is insufficient under the weak reality. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Glass**: Last week, due to one production line being shut down for water discharge and one for hot repair, and one previously ignited production line starting to produce glass, the weekly melting volume increased slightly, and the manufacturer's inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Currently, glass supply fluctuates within a narrow range at a low level. Entering the off - season of demand, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and manufacturers' inventory remains high. Enterprises reduce prices to promote sales. Short - term demand is seasonally weak, and high inventory puts pressure on the market. The futures valuation is low and maintains a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the cold repair of production lines after losses deepen. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Views and Strategies Soda Ash - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [8]. - **Supply**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [8]. - **Demand**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [8]. - **View and Strategy**: The current supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Glass - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period [9]. - **Supply**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [9]. - **Profit**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 195.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.28 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 83.70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.98 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 108.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Demand**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48% [9]. - **View and Strategy**: Currently, supply is at a low level with narrow fluctuations, and demand is seasonally weak. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: The upstream of the soda ash industry chain includes natural alkali mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The product is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [11]. - **Flat Glass**: The upstream of the flat glass industry chain includes raw materials such as quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and additives, as well as fuels like coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), and petroleum coke (16%). The mid - stream products include float glass and other types. The downstream is mainly used in real estate (75%), automobiles (18%), and electronic appliances (7%) [12]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Glass**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1007, and the North China basis was 133 yuan/ton. The FG9 - 1 spread closed at - 58 yuan/ton [16][20]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the SA main contract was 11573, and the North China basis was 227 yuan/ton. The SA9 - 1 spread closed at 11 yuan/ton [19][20]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period. There were different inventory changes in different regions [23]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [32]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Glass**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [36]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [45]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Glass**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48%. Since June, deep - processing orders in many places have decreased [52]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [62].