纸浆市场供需

Search documents
建信期货纸浆日报-20250708
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 01:27
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 09 contract was 5080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5074 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.91% [7] - Shandong Wood Pulp Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5220 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6100 yuan/ton [7] - Chilean Arauco's June Quotes: Yinxing was 740 US dollars/ton, and Jinxing was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous quote [7] - Supply - side Data: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6%. In May, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in May were 302 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [7] - Inventory Data: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 3.11% month - on - month, with only Qingdao Port's inventory decreasing compared to the previous week, and the overall shipment speed was stable [7] - Downstream Market: The market orders of downstream paper mills had no obvious improvement, and the prices of finished paper remained stable. Currently, the port de - stocking speed was slow, the supply of imported wood pulp market was relatively loose, and it was oscillating in the low - level range [7] Group 3: Industry News - On July 4, Finland's Stora Enso announced that its Kemi pulp mill and the adjacent paper mill would resume production after weeks of maintenance and repair. Production would resume in stages, and the factory startup would take about two days. During the five - week annual maintenance shutdown, its subsidiary changed the digester damaged in the explosion in March 2024. The new Kemi pulp mill, put into use in Q4 2023, had the world's largest softwood pulp production line, with an annual production capacity of about 1.5 million tons, including about 1.1 million tons of market pulp [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including pulp spot and futures prices, price spreads, warehouse receipts, and inventory in different regions [14][16][18][25][27][29]
纸浆周报:需求制约,盘面低位震荡-20250706
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 02:50
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2509, hovered at a low level [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of July 3, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,824 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.32 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,058 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.76 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from last week, turning from stable to declining; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,775 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, turning from stable to declining [13] - **Pulp Import Volume**: In May, the pulp import volume was 3.016 million tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, from January to May 2025, the cumulative import of softwood pulp was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import of hardwood pulp was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [17][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.176 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%, turning from a decline to an increase [21] - **European Port Inventory in May**: In May 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. In May, the port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [24] - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. The operating load rate of double - copper paper remained flat at 62.60% month - on - month; the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 49.10% this week, down 0.87 percentage points from last week; the weekly operating load rate and output of the white cardboard industry declined compared with last week, with the operating load rate dropping by 0.44 percentage points and the output decreasing by 0.67%, and the decline rate narrowing by 0.44 percentage points compared with last week; the operating load rate of the sampled household paper enterprises decreased by 1.71 percentage points compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.10 percentage points, and the output decreased by 2.88% compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.86 percentage points [30] 3. Future Outlook - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250703
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:39
Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - SP2509 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5044 yuan/ton, closing price was 5072 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [7] - SP2601 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5230 yuan/ton, closing price was 5284 yuan/ton, up 1.03% [7] - SP2605 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5178 yuan/ton, closing price was 5234 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [7] - Shandong wood pulp market: Coniferous pulp intended transaction price range was 5220 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low-end price stable compared to the previous trading day. Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6100 yuan/ton [7] Operation Suggestions - Supply side: In May, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp-producing countries decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6% year-on-year. European port wood pulp inventory in May increased by 13.3% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, up 4.3% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year. As of June 26, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.49% month-on-month [8] - Demand side: Downstream paper mills' raw material procurement mentality remained cautious, mainly replenishing inventory at low levels for rigid demand [8] - Market outlook: The current port de-stocking speed is slow, the supply of imported wood pulp market is relatively loose, and with the expectation of new domestic production capacity, the improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, and it will operate in a low-range oscillation [8] Group 3: Industry News - On July 2, Xianhe Co., Ltd. announced an overseas investment. On June 30, 2025, the company signed an investment agreement with the People's Government of Hejiang County, Sichuan Province, for a bamboo pulp and paper integrated high-performance paper-based new material project. The total investment is expected to be about 11 billion yuan to build an 800,000-ton bamboo pulp and 1.2 million-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line and related supporting facilities. The project is planned in stages. The first phase will invest about 5.5 billion yuan, cover an area of about 2000 mu, and build a 400,000-ton bamboo pulp and 600,000-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line and related supporting facilities. The second phase will invest about 5.5 billion yuan, cover an area of about 2000 mu, and build a 400,000-ton bamboo pulp and 600,000-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line, corresponding supporting projects, and a bamboo forest base [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp futures-spot price difference, needle-broadleaf price difference, inter-period price difference, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, white cardboard and whiteboard price and price difference, copperplate paper and offset paper price and price difference, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][26][28][30]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250620
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:07
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: June 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 09 contract was 5,230 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,254 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.46%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,220 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price unchanged from the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6,100 yuan/ton [7]. - International Quotes: Chile's Arauco announced its June quotes. Yinxing was at $740/ton, and Jinxing was at $620/ton, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - Supply Data: According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was 1.4%. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. As of June 19, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.7% month - on - month, and the inventory in major ports increased compared to the previous week, with a moderate overall shipment speed [7]. - Market Outlook: Downstream paper mills mainly consume their previous raw material inventories, with insufficient short - term pulp - purchasing enthusiasm. The new round of import pulp quotes is stable, the pulp market supply at home and abroad is loose, the port de - stocking speed is still slow, downstream paper mills continue to optimize the raw material cost structure, and the competition between domestic and imported pulp intensifies. Pulp prices fluctuate widely in a low - level range [7]. Group 3: Industry News - New Project in Xinjiang: On June 19, a new project with a total investment of 110 million yuan and an annual output of 1,000 tons of aramid paper new materials, introduced by the Huai'an Working Group of Jiangsu Aid to Yili, was officially signed and settled in the 7th Division of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps [8]. - Project Adjustment in Hubei: On June 13, Hubei Xianhe's special pulp and paper project with a total investment of 4.39 billion yuan had a key shift in its "core". The production of traditional cultural paper was significantly reduced, and the proportion of high - value - added special paper production capacity increased significantly. The production capacity of special food cardboard increased by 300,000 tons, the production capacity of release base paper increased from 25,000 tons to 50,000 tons, and the thermal base paper's structure focused more on high - end applications [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Chart 1 - 6 shows various data of pulp, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, softwood - hardwood price difference in Shandong, and inter - period price differences [14][16][18] - Chart 7 - 12 shows data such as the total amount of warehouse receipts, pulp inventory in domestic main ports, wood pulp inventory in European main ports, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [25][27][29]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250610
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:21
Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily paper pulp report dated June 10, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The paper pulp market shows that the new round of imported pulp quotes remains stable, the port de - stocking speed is still slow, the implementation effect of downstream price increase letters is average, and the shutdown of a 690,000 - ton coniferous pulp mill in Finland due to poor orders boosts the market trend, with the pulp rebounding in a wide range [8] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The pre - settlement price of the 09 contract of pulp futures was 5,226 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,290 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.22%. For SP2601, the increase was 0.91%, and for SP2605, it was 0.19% [7] - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,280 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 6,150 - 6,170 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply - related Data**: Chile's Arauco announced its June quotes, with Yinxing at 740 US dollars/ton and Jinxing at 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was 1.4%. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. As of June 5, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.6% month - on - month [8] - **Downstream Market**: The downstream market has a clear demand for improved profitability, but the follow - up of terminal orders is limited, and the raw material procurement mentality is cautious [8] 2. Industry News - On June 9, in Xingning, Meizhou, Guangdong, 33 key industrial projects were signed, started, and completed in the first half of 2025, with a total planned investment of 7.087 billion yuan. After reaching production capacity, the expected annual output value is 8.857 billion yuan, and the annual tax is 376 million yuan. Among them, there are 3 packaging projects with different planned investments, trial - production times, expected annual output values, and annual taxes [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cross - period spreads, import floating needle pulp spot prices, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures spreads, needle - broadleaf spreads, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and spreads of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, copperplate paper and offset paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [14][15][17][26][28][30]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250530
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 01:23
Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The pulp market has macro disturbances as the US International Trade Court blocked the April 2 tariff decision and the Trump administration appealed. New import pulp offers are mostly down, port inventory reduction is slow, and the implementation of price increase notices by downstream paper mills is generally ineffective. After the macro pressure weakens, pulp tries to fill the gap, but lacks fundamental support, so it may maintain low - level range - bound adjustment [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5,194 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,356 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.12%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,400 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 6,300 yuan/ton [7] - Supply and Demand Situation: The Trump administration's appeal against the court's tariff decision creates macro uncertainties. Chile's Arauco's May offers for Yinxing and Jinxing are down. In April, the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries' softwood pulp shipments decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, but the cumulative figure from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in April were 2.89 million tons, down 11.1% month - on - month and 10.2% year - on - year. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.2% month - on - month. Downstream market demand improvement is limited, and raw material procurement is cautious [8] 2. Industry News - Zhanjiang Zhongzhi Paper Co., Ltd. plans to significantly adjust the scale of its high - end packaging new materials project. The new plan includes a 400,000 - ton/year chemimechanical pulp production line, a 400,000 - ton/year chemical pulp production line, and two special paper production lines with a total annual output of 190,000 tons. The project will also build solid waste comprehensive utilization facilities to improve resource utilization efficiency and achieve green development, marking a shift from traditional white cardboard to high - value - added special paper [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, warehouse receipt volumes, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][25][27][29]
盘面探底回升,关注需求恢复情况
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 05:33
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a monthly pulp report by Guoxin Futures, focusing on the pulp market in May 2025 [2][3] - It analyzes pulp imports, port inventories, external quotes, downstream demand, and provides trading suggestions [3][35] Group 2: Core Views - The pulp futures market bottomed out and rebounded in May 2025. With the unexpected reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the recovery of downstream operating rates, there is a market push - up willingness, but the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills limits the upward space [8] - International pulp mills' new round of quotes lower the price of imported softwood pulp and reduce the supply of hardwood pulp, so the prices of softwood and hardwood pulp may diverge [3][18][35] - The recovery of downstream operating rates may boost industry expectations. Considering the market situation, the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [3][35] Group 3: Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review - In May 2025, pulp futures bottomed out and rebounded. Although the market had a push - up willingness due to tariff reduction and operating rate recovery, the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills led to a slight decline after the price increase [8] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, China imported 2893000 tons of pulp. From January to April, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. The import volume of softwood and hardwood pulp in April decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the growth rate of pulp imports is expected to slow down [2][13][34] - **External Quotes**: In May 2025, Arauco in Chile lowered the external quotes of softwood pulp and kraft pulp by 30 dollars per ton. There was no quote for hardwood pulp, and its supply will be reduced in May and June, expected to partially recover in July [3][18][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 23, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.2164 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98% and a narrowing increase of 10.26 percentage points [19][34] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Except for the decline of operating rates in the double - copper paper and double - offset paper industries, the operating rates of other base papers increased week - on - week, which may boost industry expectations [3][24][35] - **Imported Softwood Pulp Gross Margin**: The short - term gross margin of silver star spot pulp has slightly recovered, but due to weak downstream demand and the decline of new external quotes, the gross margin of imported softwood pulp is expected to remain low [27][29] - **Price Increase of Imported Pulp**: As of May 22, the weekly average prices of imported softwood, hardwood, and kraft pulp showed different trends, with the price increases of softwood and hardwood pulp narrowing [32] 3. Market Outlook - The market situation is similar to the analysis in the fundamental part. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand, and the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [35]