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建信期货纸浆日报-20250904
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 02:48
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 4, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Cost - end guidance is limited, supply remains loose, and pulp is in low - level volatile adjustment awaiting peak - season demand [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures 01 contract: The previous settlement price was 5340 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5324 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.30%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market is 5000 - 6650 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The price of Shandong Silver Star is 5,750 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's August pulp offers: Softwood pulp Silver Star at 720 USD/ton, unbleached pulp Venus at 590 USD/ton, hardwood pulp Star at 520 USD/ton, all stable compared to June [8] - World's 20 major pulp - producing countries' July chemical pulp shipments: Up 7.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 4.1% and hardwood pulp up 11.1% [8] - July European port pulp inventory: Down 1.9% month - on - month and up 19.2% year - on - year [8] - July China's pulp imports: 2.877 million tons, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 23.7% year - on - year [8] - As of August 28, 2025, weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports: Up 1.23% month - on - month [8] - January - July profit of the papermaking and paper products industry: Down 21.9% year - on - year, with a slightly wider decline [8] Operation Suggestions - No operation suggestions provided in the report Group 5: Industry News - On September 2, Shanying Paper announced a shutdown and maintenance plan for the National Day. It involves 12 paper lines at multiple bases in Anhui, Zhejiang, Central China, Fujian, Guangdong, and Jilin, with shutdown durations ranging from 4 to 8 days from September 29 to October 6, affecting about 97,000 tons of boxboard and corrugated paper production capacity [9] - July European port total inventory: Down 1.91% month - on - month and up 19.19% year - on - year. Only the ports in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Switzerland saw a 1.72% month - on - month increase, while ports in the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [9] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - delivery price differences, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port pulp inventory, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]
纸浆周报:延续弱势,关注需求企稳情况-20250831
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-30 23:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market continues to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the stabilization of demand. The operation suggestion is to wait and see for the time being [35] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main pulp futures contract SP2511 searched for the bottom downward, rebounded slightly on Friday, and the overall trend was weak [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of August 28, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,677 yuan/ton, down 1.13% from last week, and the decline rate increased by 0.49 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,190 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from last week, changing from rising to falling [11] - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to July**: In July 2025, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7652 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 613.56 US dollars/ton. From January to July, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 6.5% and 3.4% respectively compared with the same period last year [16] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of August 28, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0468 million tons, down 0.14% from last week, and the decline rate narrowed by 1.45 percentage points [19][35] - **European Commodity Chemical Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July**: In July 2025, the consumption of European chemical pulp was 814,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.07%; the inventory of European chemical pulp was 683,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.65%. The inventory days were 26 days, an increase of 3 days compared with the same period last year [23] - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange**: No specific analysis content provided - **Different Performance of Operating Rates of Downstream Pulp Types**: Wastepaper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of August 28, the weekly operating load rate of double copper paper increased by 1.31 percentage points; the weekly operating load rate of double offset paper increased by 0.17 percentage points; the operating load rate of white cardboard decreased by 1.56 percentage points compared with last week; the operating load rate of household paper decreased by 0.32 percentage points compared with last week [28] 3. Outlook for the Future - The inventory of major Chinese regions and ports decreased slightly, and the decline rate narrowed. The external quotation of imported hardwood pulp has a rising expectation, and some spot traders in some regions have a certain sentiment of supporting prices due to cost pressure. However, the profit improvement of downstream paper mills is poor, the acceptance of high prices is limited, and they mainly purchase at low prices. The pulp market transaction is not prosperous, and the spot price is slightly weak. The recent market has been running weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the stabilization of demand and wait and see for the time being [35]
需求边际改善但持续性存疑 纸浆期货承压运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-24 23:40
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pulp futures market is under pressure due to a seasonal demand slump, with processing profits for paper mills not showing significant improvement [3] - As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of pulp at major Chinese ports reached 2.132 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 33,000 tons, or 1.6% [2] - The main contract for pulp futures closed at 5,108 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.33% [1] Group 2 - Institutions suggest that the sentiment is dominated by expectations of supply contraction, as major international pulp producers like Suzano and Bracell have announced production cuts [3] - The external pricing for wood pulp has remained stable, with needle pulp priced at 720 USD/ton and bleached pulp at 590 USD/ton, indicating no significant changes since June [2] - Despite marginal improvements in demand, the sustainability of this trend is uncertain, as paper mills continue to face high inventory levels and low profit margins [3]
能源化工纸浆周度报告-20250817
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 12:14
1. Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week's pulp outlook is slightly bullish. International pulp mills' production cuts and product conversions support the current pulp prices from falling, and the increase in foreign market prices further boosts market sentiment. However, the demand market is currently slow to follow up. Whether pulp prices can continue to rise or surge significantly depends on the shipment status and production fluctuations in the demand-side base paper market. Additionally, macro - policy stimuli can also affect the price fluctuations of pulp futures. It is recommended to monitor port inventory levels and base paper demand [75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of August 14, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 536,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons or 10.5%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1.375 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 0.7%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 18.0%. The total inventory of major sample ports was 2.099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons or 2.5% [6]. - Brazil's Suzano announced a reduction of nearly 500,000 tons in commodity pulp production over the next 12 months, equivalent to about 1% of the global demand for 40 million tons of hardwood pulp [6]. - China's pulp imports in July 2025 were 2.877 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The cumulative imports for the year were 21.455 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.5% [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the basis for coniferous pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 544 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93% but a year - on - year increase of 29.52%. The basis for Russian Needle was - 6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 110.34% and a year - on - year increase of 80.00%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.70% and a year - on - year increase of 22.22% [12]. - As of August 15, 2025, the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 220 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.84%. The 01 - 05 month - spread was 30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36.36% [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp decreased. As of August 15, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.78% but a year - on - year increase of 57.14%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 83.33% [24]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp improved. As of August 15, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 36.74 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a year - on - year increase of 81.82%. The import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was 87.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 769.10% and a year - on - year increase of 123.39% [28]. - The price of coniferous pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Pine, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, 6,150 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, and 5,300 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Russian Needle increased by 1.53% month - on - month [29]. - The price of broad - leaf pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Birdie, and Broadleaf were 4,200 yuan/ton, 4,200 yuan/ton, 4,150 yuan/ton, and 4,150 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases ranging from 2.44% to 2.94% [36]. - The price of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp: As of August 15, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 4,900 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged month - on - month [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - In June 2025, European port pulp inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while global pulp shipments in May increased month - on - month [41]. - In June 2025, the performance of pulp imports continued to diverge. Coniferous pulp imports decreased by 6.07% month - on - month, while broad - leaf pulp imports increased by 10.96% month - on - month [45]. 3.3.3 Demand - The capacity utilization rates of some finished paper products showed an upward trend. As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 72.58%, 63.50%, 56.27%, and 57.18% respectively [49]. - The prices of finished paper products were generally weak. As of August 15, 2025, the average prices of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper decreased to varying degrees month - on - month [50]. - The profits of finished paper products weakened [61]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 235,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.13% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.02%. The warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory warehouse) was 19,200 tons, remaining unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 42.05% [66]. - Overall, port inventory was at a medium level for the year, and the inventory of major domestic ports showed an upward trend this period. Qingdao Port's inventory decreased, while Changshu Port's inventory increased [71].
建信期货纸浆日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:12
Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report - Date: August 13, 2025 - Industry: Pulp [1][2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The fundamentals of the pulp industry have slightly improved compared to the previous period. If the industry profit is further repaired in the future, pulp still has room to rebound and rise, but the overall space is limited due to the lack of supply - side support [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Pulp futures contract 09 had a previous settlement price of 5,192 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,216 yuan/ton, rising 0.46%. The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,150 - 6,700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,850 yuan/ton [7] - **Industry Situation**: The new import wood pulp outer plate has not been announced, and market wait - and - see sentiment persists. Suzano will reduce its commodity pulp production by 3.50% from August 6th for the next year. In May, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in the world was 1.69 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. In July, China's total pulp imports were 2.877 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. As of August 8, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 4.67% month - on - month, and the inventory in major ports decreased compared to the previous week. The profit improvement space of downstream paper enterprises is limited, and they mainly replenish inventory on a need - to - buy and low - price basis [7][8] 2. Industry News - **Broadleaf Pulp**: Suzano, the world's largest broadleaf pulp producer, will reduce its commodity pulp production by about 3.5% in the next 12 - month operating cycle, which means a reduction of about 400,000 - 500,000 tons, equivalent to about 1% of the global demand for 40 million tons of broadleaf pulp. Bracell also announced a production adjustment [9] - **Coniferous Pulp**: Active production cuts have affected 2 - 4% of the coniferous pulp supply. Fenbao temporarily closed its 690,000 - ton/year Joutseno factory, reducing the global supply of 26 million tons of coniferous wood by 2 - 3%. UPM extended the maintenance work of its 700,000 - ton/year Kaukas factory in the third quarter [9]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250715
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:24
1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures contract 09 was 5,228 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,244 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase [7]. - The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,070 - 6,700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5,920 - 5,950 yuan/ton [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Chile's Arauco announced its July offer. Yinxing had completed transactions with no new offers, and the net price of Uruguay's hardwood pulp New Star was $500/ton [8]. - According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in May decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6% year - on - year [8]. - According to Europulp data, the total inventory of wood pulp in European ports in May increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22% year - on - year [8]. - China's pulp imports in June were 3.03 million tons, a 0.5% increase month - on - month and a 16.3% increase year - on - year [8]. - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.45% month - on - month, with only the inventory at Gaolan Port decreasing compared to the previous week. The overall shipment speed was stable [8]. - Downstream terminal orders were insufficient, and the prices of base paper were generally stable with some individual declines [8]. Operation Suggestions - The absolute price of pulp is currently at a relatively low level. The downside space due to weak fundamentals is limited, and a new round of upward movement depends on the improvement of terminal demand and the restoration of industry profits. In the short term, it will maintain a wide - range volatile operation at a low level [8]. 3. Industry News - On July 11, the second - phase chemi - thermomechanical pulp (CTMP) project's Line 2 of Liansheng Pulp and Paper Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation. It took only 4 hours and 8 minutes to connect the entire system from feeding, and after 20 hours of system optimization after startup, the quality of the main pulp reached the requirements of the paper machine production line. The CTMP from Line 2 has been used in the PM1 white cardboard production line of Zhangpu Base [9]. - The successful commissioning of Line 2 of the second - phase CTMP project not only marks another major progress in Liansheng Pulp and Paper's Zhangpu Base's annual production of 3.9 million tons of forest - pulp - paper integration but also further strengthens the company's flexible self - supply capacity of raw materials [9]. - In the Zhangpu Base project with an annual output of 3.9 million tons, Valmet supplied a BCTMP production line, including various pulping process technologies such as wood chip washing, pre - impregnation systems, high - consistency refining, low - consistency refining, bleaching, high - consistency screening systems, and twin - roll washers, as well as engineering, procurement, on - site management (EPS), training, on - site services, and related spare parts [9]. 4. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - delivery price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [7][15][17][19][26][28][30]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250708
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 01:27
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 09 contract was 5080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5074 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.91% [7] - Shandong Wood Pulp Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5220 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6100 yuan/ton [7] - Chilean Arauco's June Quotes: Yinxing was 740 US dollars/ton, and Jinxing was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous quote [7] - Supply - side Data: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6%. In May, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in May were 302 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [7] - Inventory Data: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 3.11% month - on - month, with only Qingdao Port's inventory decreasing compared to the previous week, and the overall shipment speed was stable [7] - Downstream Market: The market orders of downstream paper mills had no obvious improvement, and the prices of finished paper remained stable. Currently, the port de - stocking speed was slow, the supply of imported wood pulp market was relatively loose, and it was oscillating in the low - level range [7] Group 3: Industry News - On July 4, Finland's Stora Enso announced that its Kemi pulp mill and the adjacent paper mill would resume production after weeks of maintenance and repair. Production would resume in stages, and the factory startup would take about two days. During the five - week annual maintenance shutdown, its subsidiary changed the digester damaged in the explosion in March 2024. The new Kemi pulp mill, put into use in Q4 2023, had the world's largest softwood pulp production line, with an annual production capacity of about 1.5 million tons, including about 1.1 million tons of market pulp [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including pulp spot and futures prices, price spreads, warehouse receipts, and inventory in different regions [14][16][18][25][27][29]
纸浆周报:需求制约,盘面低位震荡-20250706
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 02:50
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2509, hovered at a low level [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of July 3, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,824 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.32 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,058 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.76 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from last week, turning from stable to declining; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,775 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, turning from stable to declining [13] - **Pulp Import Volume**: In May, the pulp import volume was 3.016 million tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, from January to May 2025, the cumulative import of softwood pulp was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import of hardwood pulp was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [17][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.176 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%, turning from a decline to an increase [21] - **European Port Inventory in May**: In May 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. In May, the port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [24] - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. The operating load rate of double - copper paper remained flat at 62.60% month - on - month; the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 49.10% this week, down 0.87 percentage points from last week; the weekly operating load rate and output of the white cardboard industry declined compared with last week, with the operating load rate dropping by 0.44 percentage points and the output decreasing by 0.67%, and the decline rate narrowing by 0.44 percentage points compared with last week; the operating load rate of the sampled household paper enterprises decreased by 1.71 percentage points compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.10 percentage points, and the output decreased by 2.88% compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.86 percentage points [30] 3. Future Outlook - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250703
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 01:39
Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - SP2509 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5044 yuan/ton, closing price was 5072 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [7] - SP2601 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5230 yuan/ton, closing price was 5284 yuan/ton, up 1.03% [7] - SP2605 contract: Pre-settlement price was 5178 yuan/ton, closing price was 5234 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [7] - Shandong wood pulp market: Coniferous pulp intended transaction price range was 5220 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low-end price stable compared to the previous trading day. Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6100 yuan/ton [7] Operation Suggestions - Supply side: In May, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp-producing countries decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6% year-on-year. European port wood pulp inventory in May increased by 13.3% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, up 4.3% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year. As of June 26, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.49% month-on-month [8] - Demand side: Downstream paper mills' raw material procurement mentality remained cautious, mainly replenishing inventory at low levels for rigid demand [8] - Market outlook: The current port de-stocking speed is slow, the supply of imported wood pulp market is relatively loose, and with the expectation of new domestic production capacity, the improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, and it will operate in a low-range oscillation [8] Group 3: Industry News - On July 2, Xianhe Co., Ltd. announced an overseas investment. On June 30, 2025, the company signed an investment agreement with the People's Government of Hejiang County, Sichuan Province, for a bamboo pulp and paper integrated high-performance paper-based new material project. The total investment is expected to be about 11 billion yuan to build an 800,000-ton bamboo pulp and 1.2 million-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line and related supporting facilities. The project is planned in stages. The first phase will invest about 5.5 billion yuan, cover an area of about 2000 mu, and build a 400,000-ton bamboo pulp and 600,000-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line and related supporting facilities. The second phase will invest about 5.5 billion yuan, cover an area of about 2000 mu, and build a 400,000-ton bamboo pulp and 600,000-ton high-performance paper-based new material production line, corresponding supporting projects, and a bamboo forest base [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp futures-spot price difference, needle-broadleaf price difference, inter-period price difference, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, white cardboard and whiteboard price and price difference, copperplate paper and offset paper price and price difference, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][26][28][30]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250620
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:07
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: June 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 09 contract was 5,230 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,254 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.46%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,220 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price unchanged from the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6,100 yuan/ton [7]. - International Quotes: Chile's Arauco announced its June quotes. Yinxing was at $740/ton, and Jinxing was at $620/ton, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - Supply Data: According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was 1.4%. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. As of June 19, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.7% month - on - month, and the inventory in major ports increased compared to the previous week, with a moderate overall shipment speed [7]. - Market Outlook: Downstream paper mills mainly consume their previous raw material inventories, with insufficient short - term pulp - purchasing enthusiasm. The new round of import pulp quotes is stable, the pulp market supply at home and abroad is loose, the port de - stocking speed is still slow, downstream paper mills continue to optimize the raw material cost structure, and the competition between domestic and imported pulp intensifies. Pulp prices fluctuate widely in a low - level range [7]. Group 3: Industry News - New Project in Xinjiang: On June 19, a new project with a total investment of 110 million yuan and an annual output of 1,000 tons of aramid paper new materials, introduced by the Huai'an Working Group of Jiangsu Aid to Yili, was officially signed and settled in the 7th Division of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps [8]. - Project Adjustment in Hubei: On June 13, Hubei Xianhe's special pulp and paper project with a total investment of 4.39 billion yuan had a key shift in its "core". The production of traditional cultural paper was significantly reduced, and the proportion of high - value - added special paper production capacity increased significantly. The production capacity of special food cardboard increased by 300,000 tons, the production capacity of release base paper increased from 25,000 tons to 50,000 tons, and the thermal base paper's structure focused more on high - end applications [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Chart 1 - 6 shows various data of pulp, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, softwood - hardwood price difference in Shandong, and inter - period price differences [14][16][18] - Chart 7 - 12 shows data such as the total amount of warehouse receipts, pulp inventory in domestic main ports, wood pulp inventory in European main ports, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [25][27][29]