欧洲央行行长拉加德：经济增长前景面临的风险仍偏向下行。经济和政治不确定性异常高。 ...

彭博美元指数与国债收益率同步大幅下跌，因数据显示上周初请失业金人数增幅超预期，且美国第一季 度国内生产总值(GDP)出现萎缩。这些数据发布之前，美国国际贸易法院叫停了上月实施的政府多项广 泛关税措施，但该决定随即被美国联邦巡回上诉法院暂缓执行。 丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne在上诉裁决后表示："关税混乱局面仍在持续。不得不让人怀 疑，投资者是否已对贸易政策的反复无常感到厌倦。" 智通财经APP获悉，周四公布的美国经济数据表现疲弱，加之联邦巡回上诉法院暂缓执行此前阻止特朗 普政府全球关税的裁决，加剧了投资者对经济增长前景的担忧，导致美元承压。 期权交易员对未来一年的美元前景仍持看跌观点，但信心略有减弱。所谓的一个月期风险逆转期权(用 于追踪美元看涨和看跌押注之间的需求差异)继续显示出对下行保护的偏好。 | Currency | May 5-9 | May 12-16 | May 19-23 | May 26-29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Australian dollar | 53.0 | 57.5 | 53.3 | 58.3 | | Euro ...

Group 1 - The European Commission indicates that the economic growth outlook for the Eurozone is facing downward risks due to trade tensions and climate-related disasters [1] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is projected to be only 0.9% this year, down from a previous forecast of 1.3% [1] - By 2026, the Eurozone's economic growth is expected to accelerate to 1.4%, but this is still below the earlier estimate of 1.6% [1] Group 2 - The first quarter GDP growth rate for the Eurozone was revised to 0.3%, below the expected 0.4% [2] - Industrial production in March saw a month-on-month increase of 2.6%, significantly higher than the economists' forecast of 1.1% [2] - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to decrease from 6.4% in 2024 to 6.3% in 2025, and further to 6.1% in 2026 [2] Group 3 - The European Commission forecasts that consumer inflation in the Eurozone will slow from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025, and further to 1.7% in 2026 [2] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise from 88.9% in 2024 to 89.9% in 2025, and to 91.0% in 2026 [2] - The overall budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, and to 3.3% in 2026 [2] Group 4 - Barclays Bank maintains a cautious outlook on the Eurozone's growth prospects due to high current uncertainties and a lack of progress in tariff negotiations between the US and EU [3]

欧洲央行管委雷恩：通胀回落进展顺利，经济增长前景正在减弱。 ...

Group 1 - The market narrative is expected to oscillate between recession and stagflation until trade issues are resolved, the Federal Reserve begins to ease policies, or inflationary pressures fail to build [1] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the economic growth outlook, leading to expectations of declining yields [1] - BMO Capital Markets analyst Ian Lyngen expresses concerns about further weakening economic data in the short term [1] Group 2 - HSBC strategists, including Nicole Inui, highlight the need for clarity on economic conditions to stabilize market expectations [1]