Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the philosophical underpinnings of investment strategies, contrasting rationalism and empiricism, and highlights the importance of skepticism in value investing, particularly as exemplified by Warren Buffett and David Dodd's approaches [4][25][36]. Group 1: Rationalism vs. Empiricism - Rationalism emphasizes knowledge derived from reason and logical deduction, often leading to the creation of comprehensive frameworks to explain market behavior [10][16]. - Empiricism focuses on knowledge gained through experience and observation, suggesting that practical experience is more valuable than theoretical constructs in investment [20][21]. - The article suggests that while rationalism can create robust investment theories, it often fails to predict future market behavior accurately, which is a critical aspect of successful investing [17][22]. Group 2: Skepticism in Value Investing - Skepticism, as articulated by philosopher David Hume, posits that causal relationships are often illusory, which aligns with the investment philosophy of Buffett, who emphasizes understanding businesses within one's "circle of competence" [25][34]. - Buffett's investment strategy is characterized by a focus on observable business fundamentals rather than complex financial models, reflecting a skeptical approach to predictions based on theoretical frameworks [36][37]. - The principle of "margin of safety" in value investing is rooted in the acknowledgment that investors can be wrong, thus advocating for buying undervalued assets to mitigate potential losses [36]. Group 3: Investment Methodologies - The article outlines that rationalist methodologies dominate technical analysis and macroeconomic modeling, while empirical approaches are more prevalent in value investing [14][15]. - It highlights that many successful investors, including Buffett, rely on empirical observations and historical performance rather than solely on theoretical models [34][41]. - The discussion includes the evolution of investment thought from classical rationalism to a more nuanced understanding that incorporates elements of Bayesian reasoning, which aligns with empirical evidence [42].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is driven by a weaker USD and a thawing in China-US trade relations, with future focus on tariff negotiations and US economic data impacting the USD index [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown a "short-term rapid appreciation," influenced by the weakening of the USD and narrowing China-US interest rate differentials [1] - The relationship between the RMB exchange rate and both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is observed to be vaguely positively correlated, while the exchange rate is strongly correlated with the China-US interest rate differential [1] - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB has contributed to the recovery of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but technical analysis suggests that the rapid appreciation phase has ended, leading to potential fluctuations [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis Insights - From a technical perspective, the RMB exchange rate is currently in a phase of oscillation after the rapid appreciation, which may cause disturbances in market trends [1] - The analysis indicates that if the RMB rebounds to certain levels, it may signal further downward movement, while a return to specific thresholds could indicate reduced downward space [1][23] - The PCR indicator, which tracks short-term market timing, has shown a slight increase, indicating a high-risk zone, suggesting that if it remains elevated, a market adjustment may be imminent [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the results of the 2024 Seventh New Wealth Best Investment Advisor Competition, showcasing the achievements of investment advisors and emphasizing the importance of professional skills in wealth management [2][5]. Group 1: Competition Overview - The competition involved 36,616 investment advisors from 96 securities companies, indicating a highly competitive environment [2]. - Li Xianghui, a senior investment advisor from Beijing Jinsong Nine District Securities Branch, achieved an impressive 9th place nationally among nearly 40,000 participants [2][5]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The simulated ETF portfolio managed by Li Xianghui recorded a cumulative return of 32.93% from May 6, 2024, to October 31, 2024, ranking 65th out of 2,038 participants [7][8]. - The stock selection success rate for the portfolio was 80.43%, with a maximum drawdown of 11.80% and a turnover rate of 2742.11% [8]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes a short-term, low-buying strategy while avoiding high chasing, focusing on technical analysis and market timing [12][13]. - The advisor combines Elliott Wave Theory and Chan Theory to create a comprehensive investment advisory system, focusing on the integration of volume, price, time, and space [14][15]. Group 4: Strategy and Analysis - The competition strategies included fundamental analysis of macroeconomic factors and technical analysis for timing trades, highlighting the need for a balanced approach [17]. - A multi-directional hedging strategy was also mentioned as a means to reduce market risk, although it is noted that retail investors often lack effective short-selling tools [17].