至于行情何时结束，他观察窗口在4月中下旬，届时2025年年报和2026年季报密集披露，很多公司业绩 或撑不起高股价，市场从炒预期转向看现实，资金变得谨慎，可能是春季行情盛极而衰之时。不过，知 道炒什么只是第一步，更重要的是如何炒，需用缠论等工具分析内部结构，找到买卖点转换关键节点。 1月9日，和讯投顾郭磊称，市场已以行动表明一年一度的春季躁动行情正式启动，若还在纠结是否为一 日游，很可能错过2026年最佳赚钱机会。此次行情非单一因素推动，而是资金、政策、情绪三箭齐发且 力道充足。资金方面，人民币汇率站稳关键位置并进入升值通道，吸引全球资本流入，外贸企业外汇回 流动力增强，带来十几万亿级别资金，且汇率稳定为降准降息打开空间，流动性更充裕。政策上，每年 一季度是重要会议和政策发布高产期，今年作为新五年规划开局之年，利好更多更密集，A股有政策市 基因，市场空间被打开。情绪上，春节前后宏观数据和公司财报空窗，无业绩爆雷惊吓，市场心态放 松，做多情绪易形成合力。缠论图形显示指数横盘蓄势待发，已走出离开段，关键位置天时地利人和俱 全。 行情关键在于资金流向和主线板块。趋势行情中强者恒强是常态，主线是近期异动频繁、走势强、 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 AI 赋能资产配置(三十三) DeepSeek 与 Gemini，谁更懂 A 股？ 核心结论：①大模型具备一定的技术分析基本功：不论是 DeepSeek V3.2 还 是 Gemini 3 Pro，都能够在合适的提示词指引下，面对有限的蜡烛图，完成 顶底分型划分、笔和线段的擘画，中枢的构建等。 ②对于"已成型"走势， 大模型具备一定的"技术分析"能力： DeepSeek 在语言组织与长文本生成 上表现良好，Gemini 能精准识别"中枢扩张"与"走势多义性"，对买卖 点的几何定义执行严格。 ③Gemini 在"易用性"上更占优：Nano Banana Pro 能够完成简易图形标注，在实际使用的便利性上略胜一筹。 如何测评 DeepSeek 与 Gemini 的技术分析能力？公平公正下的"四同原 则"。1）数据同源：所有测试均使用同一来源，即上证指数的标准化 OHLC 价格数据，并以相同格式提供给双方模型；2）提示词同构：向两个模型传 达完全相同的任务指令、规则背景与输出格式要求； 3）环境同期：所有测 试任务将在相近的时间段内依次完成，以尽可能减少模型潜在更新带来的版 ...

核心结论：①大模型具备一定的技术分析基本功：不论是 DeepSeek V3.2 还 是 Gemini 3 Pro，都能够在合适的提示词指引下，面对有限的蜡烛图，完成 顶底分型划分、笔和线段的擘画，中枢的构建等。 ②对于"已成型"走势， 大模型具备一定的"技术分析"能力： DeepSeek 在语言组织与长文本生成 上表现良好，Gemini 能精准识别"中枢扩张"与"走势多义性"，对买卖 点的几何定义执行严格。 ③Gemini 在"易用性"上更占优：Nano Banana Pro 能够完成简易图形标注，在实际使用的便利性上略胜一筹。 如何测评 DeepSeek 与 Gemini 的技术分析能力？公平公正下的"四同原 则"。1）数据同源：所有测试均使用同一来源，即上证指数的标准化 OHLC 价格数据，并以相同格式提供给双方模型；2）提示词同构：向两个模型传 达完全相同的任务指令、规则背景与输出格式要求； 3）环境同期：所有测 试任务将在相近的时间段内依次完成，以尽可能减少模型潜在更新带来的版 本差异影响 4）评估标准统一：采用同一套基于缠论原文的客观标准进行 人为结果评估 大模型具备一定的"技术分析"基本功。以 G ...

Group 1 - The current market situation shows limited opportunities, with recent rebounds being temporary and not indicative of a sustained trend [1][3] - The 50-day moving average serves as a resistance level, indicating potential risks for investors who are not agile enough to react quickly [1][3] - The market lacks clear main themes, suggesting that during unfavorable conditions, it is advisable to focus on learning and reflection rather than making impulsive trades [3] Group 2 - The age distribution of investors shows that 35.43% are aged 46 to 60, 32.23% are aged 36 to 45, and 22.94% are aged 26 to 35, indicating a mature investor demographic [5]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors, nor does it provide any related construction processes, formulas, or backtesting results[1][7][8]

Group 1 - The current market state indicates a potential top formation, with momentum showing a clear divergence at the daily level, which should be taken seriously [2] - The recent market rally has been supported by computing power and hard technology in electricity, raising questions about whether these sectors can continue to drive growth [2] - The innovation drug sector has shown movement, while the lithium battery sector has experienced a pullback, indicating mixed performance across sectors [2] Group 2 - The optical connection sector, represented by leading company Xinyiseng, is showing signs of fatigue after a top formation and daily level momentum divergence [2] - The PCB sector appears to be performing better, but companies like Shengyi Electronics and Dingtai Technology are showing signs of excessive volume at peaks, suggesting that momentum may be exhausted [3] - The market is likely transitioning away from a unilateral upward trend, emphasizing the need for careful stock selection and sensitivity to reducing positions [5]

Group 1 - The article suggests that the recent market rebound is merely a temporary reaction after breaking through a significant moving average, indicating a lack of substantial change in the overall market framework [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the market will experience a narrow range or a deep pullback, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a defensive position to await favorable conditions [3] - From the perspective of a specific trading theory, the current market situation is identified as a critical exit point for traders, highlighting the need to understand momentum changes rather than fixating on specific trading signals [4] Group 2 - There are no signs indicating the end of the current market adjustment; instead, it appears that the adjustment phase has just begun, suggesting a need for patience and strategic accumulation [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous learning and reflection during challenging market conditions, advocating for a proactive approach to market analysis [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current market sentiment, indicating a sense of impending danger and volatility, particularly related to trade wars and their impact on market dynamics [1][2] - It emphasizes the importance of momentum signals in predicting market movements, suggesting that these signals often precede significant market events or news [2] - The author notes a historical pattern where mid-term adjustments typically take around 3 to 5 months, although this is not guaranteed and should be observed as the situation evolves [2] Group 2 - The article highlights a shift from traditional MACD indicators to Larry Williams' volume-price analysis (VAD), suggesting that volume information is as critical as price in understanding market movements [2] - It reflects on human behavior in trading, where traders often struggle to act rationally despite knowing the market dynamics, leading to emotional decision-making [2]

Group 1 - The average stock price index has perfectly broken through the 15-minute level 200 moving average, which has started to turn [2] - The significance of studying the market index is to manage positions, indicating that the current state dictates future actions [2] - After the 15-minute uptrend is broken, the analysis should shift to the 60-minute level, indicating an upgrade in the consolidation level [2] Group 2 - The essence of the analysis lies in the recursive and iterative structure of market trends [3] - Future observations will focus on signals near the 200 moving average at the 60-minute level, hoping for positive feedback [3] - The daily level analysis is also necessary to understand broader market movements [3] Group 3 - The main chart candlestick pattern has formed a descending three methods pattern, indicating that the bears dominate, but a rebound often follows [4] Group 4 - Sentiment indicators show a low-temperature zone with three lines converging, signaling a short-term oversold condition and predicting a potential rebound [5] - The strength of the rebound is uncertain, and typically, after transitioning from a high-temperature to a low-temperature zone, there may be further cooling [5] - The current short-term bear market presents an opportunity to observe and identify strong sectors, with the RSLine historically providing reliable insights [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) broke through last year's high of 3674 points on August 13, marking a strong bullish sentiment with an eight-day rally [1] - Since April 7, the SSE has seen a maximum increase of over 600 points, driven by macroeconomic and policy trends, indicating a strong market momentum [1][2] - The current upward trend in A-shares has been ongoing for over a year and a half, suggesting potential opportunities for further exploration [1] Group 2: Driving Factors Behind A-share Growth - The market's recovery from a significant drop on April 7, 2025, was propelled by three main driving forces: financial sector strength, technology sector resilience, and low-cycle industry reversals [2] - Financial sectors, including brokerage firms, joint-stock banks, and insurance companies, contributed over 140 points to the index, establishing a solid foundation for market growth [2][3] - The technology sector, particularly in communication equipment and consumer electronics, has shown significant contributions despite having smaller weights in the index [2] - Low-cycle industries like lithium batteries and Contract Research Organizations (CROs) are expected to initiate new industry cycles, providing additional upward momentum [2][5] Group 3: Policy and Economic Influences - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the potential for domestic LPR adjustments are key drivers for the financial sector's strength [3][12] - Recent monetary policy adjustments, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, are expected to further support a moderately loose monetary environment [3] - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) has created a robust market for technology stocks, with significant gains observed in both domestic and international AI sectors [4] Group 4: Future Opportunities - Approximately 1600 companies have disclosed mid-year performance forecasts for 2025, with several sectors showing strong growth potential, including aquaculture, gaming, and small metals [11] - Some industries are still under pressure, facing losses, such as real estate development and photovoltaic equipment [11] - The upcoming interest rate cuts are likely to spotlight industries benefiting from a loose monetary policy, with historical trends indicating that sectors like lithium batteries and semiconductors may perform well [12][13]