2025 年 11 月 23 日 缠论视角下或类似于 2017 年 11 月底 12 月初 本期要点：缠论视角下或类似于 2017 年 11 月底 12 月初 周五市场出现放量调整，大盘跌破近期上行趋势通道及 60 日均线， 这或许意味着此前某一级别的上行趋势已告一段落。从周期分析的角 度来看，当前调整可能仅针对 2025 年 4 月初以来周线级别的上升趋 势，而自 2024 年初启动的月线级别上行趋势或仍在延续。因此，我 们倾向于在当前阶段以"长多短空"的心态应对市场变化。 从温度计指标来看，尽管周五出现放量破位，但主流宽基指数的高频 温度计均值已降至 7 以下，显示本轮调整或已出现一定的超跌迹象。 结合缠论结构以及高频、低频、超低频温度计的当前读数，当前走势 可与 2017 年 11 月底至 12 月初的形态进行类比，即市场在短期快速 释放风险后，有望逐步进入震荡筑底阶段，为后续反弹积蓄动能。 此外，以科技为代表的板块在本轮调整中率先回落，且已呈现较为清 晰的 ABC 三浪调整结构。在大盘整体风险得到一定释放的背景下，这 类板块有可能率先企稳反弹。从量能拥挤度来看，自 11 月 18 日起， TMT 板块 ...

Group 1 - The current market state indicates a potential top formation, with momentum showing a clear divergence at the daily level, which should be taken seriously [2] - The recent market rally has been supported by computing power and hard technology in electricity, raising questions about whether these sectors can continue to drive growth [2] - The innovation drug sector has shown movement, while the lithium battery sector has experienced a pullback, indicating mixed performance across sectors [2] Group 2 - The optical connection sector, represented by leading company Xinyiseng, is showing signs of fatigue after a top formation and daily level momentum divergence [2] - The PCB sector appears to be performing better, but companies like Shengyi Electronics and Dingtai Technology are showing signs of excessive volume at peaks, suggesting that momentum may be exhausted [3] - The market is likely transitioning away from a unilateral upward trend, emphasizing the need for careful stock selection and sensitivity to reducing positions [5]

Group 1 - The article suggests that the recent market rebound is merely a temporary reaction after breaking through a significant moving average, indicating a lack of substantial change in the overall market framework [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the market will experience a narrow range or a deep pullback, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a defensive position to await favorable conditions [3] - From the perspective of a specific trading theory, the current market situation is identified as a critical exit point for traders, highlighting the need to understand momentum changes rather than fixating on specific trading signals [4] Group 2 - There are no signs indicating the end of the current market adjustment; instead, it appears that the adjustment phase has just begun, suggesting a need for patience and strategic accumulation [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous learning and reflection during challenging market conditions, advocating for a proactive approach to market analysis [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current market sentiment, indicating a sense of impending danger and volatility, particularly related to trade wars and their impact on market dynamics [1][2] - It emphasizes the importance of momentum signals in predicting market movements, suggesting that these signals often precede significant market events or news [2] - The author notes a historical pattern where mid-term adjustments typically take around 3 to 5 months, although this is not guaranteed and should be observed as the situation evolves [2] Group 2 - The article highlights a shift from traditional MACD indicators to Larry Williams' volume-price analysis (VAD), suggesting that volume information is as critical as price in understanding market movements [2] - It reflects on human behavior in trading, where traders often struggle to act rationally despite knowing the market dynamics, leading to emotional decision-making [2]

Group 1 - The average stock price index has perfectly broken through the 15-minute level 200 moving average, which has started to turn [2] - The significance of studying the market index is to manage positions, indicating that the current state dictates future actions [2] - After the 15-minute uptrend is broken, the analysis should shift to the 60-minute level, indicating an upgrade in the consolidation level [2] Group 2 - The essence of the analysis lies in the recursive and iterative structure of market trends [3] - Future observations will focus on signals near the 200 moving average at the 60-minute level, hoping for positive feedback [3] - The daily level analysis is also necessary to understand broader market movements [3] Group 3 - The main chart candlestick pattern has formed a descending three methods pattern, indicating that the bears dominate, but a rebound often follows [4] Group 4 - Sentiment indicators show a low-temperature zone with three lines converging, signaling a short-term oversold condition and predicting a potential rebound [5] - The strength of the rebound is uncertain, and typically, after transitioning from a high-temperature to a low-temperature zone, there may be further cooling [5] - The current short-term bear market presents an opportunity to observe and identify strong sectors, with the RSLine historically providing reliable insights [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) broke through last year's high of 3674 points on August 13, marking a strong bullish sentiment with an eight-day rally [1] - Since April 7, the SSE has seen a maximum increase of over 600 points, driven by macroeconomic and policy trends, indicating a strong market momentum [1][2] - The current upward trend in A-shares has been ongoing for over a year and a half, suggesting potential opportunities for further exploration [1] Group 2: Driving Factors Behind A-share Growth - The market's recovery from a significant drop on April 7, 2025, was propelled by three main driving forces: financial sector strength, technology sector resilience, and low-cycle industry reversals [2] - Financial sectors, including brokerage firms, joint-stock banks, and insurance companies, contributed over 140 points to the index, establishing a solid foundation for market growth [2][3] - The technology sector, particularly in communication equipment and consumer electronics, has shown significant contributions despite having smaller weights in the index [2] - Low-cycle industries like lithium batteries and Contract Research Organizations (CROs) are expected to initiate new industry cycles, providing additional upward momentum [2][5] Group 3: Policy and Economic Influences - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the potential for domestic LPR adjustments are key drivers for the financial sector's strength [3][12] - Recent monetary policy adjustments, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, are expected to further support a moderately loose monetary environment [3] - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) has created a robust market for technology stocks, with significant gains observed in both domestic and international AI sectors [4] Group 4: Future Opportunities - Approximately 1600 companies have disclosed mid-year performance forecasts for 2025, with several sectors showing strong growth potential, including aquaculture, gaming, and small metals [11] - Some industries are still under pressure, facing losses, such as real estate development and photovoltaic equipment [11] - The upcoming interest rate cuts are likely to spotlight industries benefiting from a loose monetary policy, with historical trends indicating that sectors like lithium batteries and semiconductors may perform well [12][13]

然后再来看结构，从缠论的结构上来说，目前依然属于是日线级别上涨段落的一个延续，而当下的防守 线就是这个位置，也就是说这个位不破反弹还可以去延续，若跌破它宣告这一轮的上涨结束，然后有一 波回踩，可是这个位置有点远。其实对于新手来说，今天我给一个建议，因为面对于这样的宽幅震荡整 理，对于新手来说非常的不友好，而且对风险来说又是指数表现很好，对于个股来说不断的一个轮动。 所以说对于新手来说，不是很友好的一个行情。那没有耐心的交易者，特别是想做短线交易者，接下来 的行情要注意休息了，而那些大涨过的个股沪指是一样的，也可以选择进行减仓做防守了。但是如果说 你是做大波段的，你是做长线的那这个位置不用去理会它，为什么？因为对于整体来说，咱们两个月之 前咱就聊过，这一轮的上涨是周线级别的多头，周线级别远远没有结束，前方高点还没给突破，他是要 给通过的。所以说这一次我们要防的是什么？是周线级别回落一笔去出现。所以说对于长线和大波段的 交易者不用去理会，而对于那些想做短线交易者，而对于没有耐心的交易者，这个位置今年开始做个小 防守，然后呢对于右侧交易者，咱们提出这个点位3547点，如果不破这个位置，也不用去担心。可 市场连续三根 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding and utilizing pivot points for identifying investment opportunities, particularly in the military industry, which has shown significant activity recently [1][2]. Group 1: Pivot Points and Investment Strategy - The pivot point formula provides quantifiable entry points for investors, but its effectiveness depends on the user's comprehension [1]. - Recent movements in the military sector indicate potential investment opportunities, with specific stocks showing signs of recovery and increased trading volume [1]. - An upgraded pivot point formula has been introduced, incorporating techniques from Chan's theory, which can enhance the user's analytical skills [3]. Group 2: Company Performance Metrics - **Fosda**: - VWA50: 38.8, VWA150: 32.3, VWA200: 30.2, HOLD: 43.8, RSLINE: 48.7, RS: 91.7 - Volume metrics: VVOL: 117,026,488, VOLUME: 59,235,632, MAVOL1: 200,821,120, MAVOL2: 141,585,344 [4]. - **Shenghong Technology**: - VWA50: 145.4, VWA150: 105.0, VWA200: 98.0, HOLD: 190.2, RSLINE: 2 - Volume metrics: VVOL: 9,609,378,816, VOLUME: 4,864,006,656, MAVOL1: 6,970,480,128, MAVOL2: 6,753,501,696 [4]. - **Ding Tai Gao Ke**: - VWA50: 40.9, VWA150: 32.8, VWA200: 31.6, HOLD: 52.9, RSLINE: 66.3 - Volume metrics: VVOL: 334,356,224, VOLUME: 169,242,032, MAVOL1: 376,082,176, MAVOL2: 409,221,216 [5]. - **Bingchuan Network**: - VWA50: 33.6, VWA150: 30.1, VWA200: 28.7, HOLD: 36.8, RSLINE: 41.5 - Volume metrics: VVOL: 1,672,844,928, VOLUME: 846,748,672, MAVOL1: 782,882,688, MAVOL2: 875,077,888 [6].

- Model Name: Four-Wheel Drive Model; Model Construction Idea: The model suggests focusing on specific industry sectors based on market conditions; Model Construction Process: The model evaluates different industry sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles, computers, communications, and mechanical equipment, and provides signals for potential opportunities or risks based on recent market data and trends[2][8][15]; Model Evaluation: The model is designed to identify potential investment opportunities in various industry sectors during different market conditions[2][8][15] - Factor Name: Volume Reduction Factor; Factor Construction Idea: In a bull market, a significant reduction in trading volume during a downturn often indicates stabilization; Factor Construction Process: The factor measures the reduction in trading volume during a downturn, with a threshold of at least 55% reduction in a fast-rising bull market and 60%-65% in a slow bull market[7]; Factor Evaluation: This factor helps identify potential stabilization points during market downturns[7] - Factor Name: High-Frequency Thermometer Factor; Factor Construction Idea: In a bull market, a significant adjustment with a high-frequency thermometer reading below 10 (or at least below 20) often indicates short-term oversold conditions; Factor Construction Process: The factor measures the high-frequency thermometer reading during market adjustments to identify short-term oversold conditions[8]; Factor Evaluation: This factor helps identify potential short-term oversold conditions during market adjustments[8] Model Backtest Results - Four-Wheel Drive Model, Sharpe Ratio: 12[15] Factor Backtest Results - Volume Reduction Factor, Threshold: 55% (fast bull market), 60%-65% (slow bull market)[7] - High-Frequency Thermometer Factor, Threshold: below 10 (or at least below 20)[8]

Group 1 - The core concept of the article revolves around the trading strategy of "divergence" as described in the Chan theory, which emphasizes the importance of predicting turning points for buying low and selling high [1] - The article explains the method of "momentum divergence" using the MACD indicator, where a bottom divergence occurs when the stock price makes a new low while the MACD shows a shortening of green bars, indicating a potential reversal [1] - It highlights the necessity of selecting stocks with clear structures and strong trends for effective trading, as weak trends may lead to repeated divergences and increased downward momentum [1] Group 2 - The article introduces a simplified rule for identifying bottom formations, which requires that the current candlestick's highest price is higher than the highest price of the previous two days, and the lowest price is also higher than the lowest price of the previous two days [2] - It provides a visual example to clarify the identification of bottom formations, emphasizing the need for confirmation through subsequent candlesticks if the initial conditions are not met [2] - The article also mentions that while there are various combinations for identifying formations, they ultimately adhere to the same fundamental rules outlined for bottom formations [2] Group 3 - The article describes the process for identifying top formations, which is essentially the reverse of the bottom formation process [3] - It acknowledges that all methods may encounter failures, but maintains that the simplicity and effectiveness of the described methods are appealing and align with Dow Theory principles [3]