然后再来看结构，从缠论的结构上来说，目前依然属于是日线级别上涨段落的一个延续，而当下的防守 线就是这个位置，也就是说这个位不破反弹还可以去延续，若跌破它宣告这一轮的上涨结束，然后有一 波回踩，可是这个位置有点远。其实对于新手来说，今天我给一个建议，因为面对于这样的宽幅震荡整 理，对于新手来说非常的不友好，而且对风险来说又是指数表现很好，对于个股来说不断的一个轮动。 所以说对于新手来说，不是很友好的一个行情。那没有耐心的交易者，特别是想做短线交易者，接下来 的行情要注意休息了，而那些大涨过的个股沪指是一样的，也可以选择进行减仓做防守了。但是如果说 你是做大波段的，你是做长线的那这个位置不用去理会它，为什么？因为对于整体来说，咱们两个月之 前咱就聊过，这一轮的上涨是周线级别的多头，周线级别远远没有结束，前方高点还没给突破，他是要 给通过的。所以说这一次我们要防的是什么？是周线级别回落一笔去出现。所以说对于长线和大波段的 交易者不用去理会，而对于那些想做短线交易者，而对于没有耐心的交易者，这个位置今年开始做个小 防守，然后呢对于右侧交易者，咱们提出这个点位3547点，如果不破这个位置，也不用去担心。可 市场连续三根 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding and utilizing pivot points for identifying investment opportunities, particularly in the military industry, which has shown significant activity recently [1][2]. Group 1: Pivot Points and Investment Strategy - The pivot point formula provides quantifiable entry points for investors, but its effectiveness depends on the user's comprehension [1]. - Recent movements in the military sector indicate potential investment opportunities, with specific stocks showing signs of recovery and increased trading volume [1]. - An upgraded pivot point formula has been introduced, incorporating techniques from Chan's theory, which can enhance the user's analytical skills [3]. Group 2: Company Performance Metrics - **Fosda**: - VWA50: 38.8, VWA150: 32.3, VWA200: 30.2, HOLD: 43.8, RSLINE: 48.7, RS: 91.7 - Volume metrics: VVOL: 117,026,488, VOLUME: 59,235,632, MAVOL1: 200,821,120, MAVOL2: 141,585,344 [4]. - **Shenghong Technology**: - VWA50: 145.4, VWA150: 105.0, VWA200: 98.0, HOLD: 190.2, RSLINE: 2 - Volume metrics: VVOL: 9,609,378,816, VOLUME: 4,864,006,656, MAVOL1: 6,970,480,128, MAVOL2: 6,753,501,696 [4]. - **Ding Tai Gao Ke**: - VWA50: 40.9, VWA150: 32.8, VWA200: 31.6, HOLD: 52.9, RSLINE: 66.3 - Volume metrics: VVOL: 334,356,224, VOLUME: 169,242,032, MAVOL1: 376,082,176, MAVOL2: 409,221,216 [5]. - **Bingchuan Network**: - VWA50: 33.6, VWA150: 30.1, VWA200: 28.7, HOLD: 36.8, RSLINE: 41.5 - Volume metrics: VVOL: 1,672,844,928, VOLUME: 846,748,672, MAVOL1: 782,882,688, MAVOL2: 875,077,888 [6].

2025 年 08 月 03 日 止跌的三个观察视角 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 本期要点：止跌的三个观察视角 上期我们认为短期或有颠簸，但是整体趋势状态或仍然向上。事后来 看，市场确实在 3600 附近出现了自 6 月底以来相对较大的震荡调整。 从走势对称的角度以及从重要关口阻力位的角度看，市场对当前位置 震荡调整的关注度比较高，一类是担心本轮上涨是不是已经结束了， 一类是关心本轮调整何时将再次迎来机会。 除非是出现特别疯狂的走势或基本面（含基本面预期）出现确定性变 化，否则一波趋势的结束往往是需要反复验证的。在当前状态下，我 们新研发的择时系统的中期趋势指标仍然维持在偏强状态，这往往表 明需要反复测试 3670-3674 这一区域才有足够的证据来讨论趋势是 否结束的问题，因此本期我们主要讨论这波调整的技术面止跌信号。 从缠论视角看，一个有效的顶分型放量跌破 5 日或 10 日均线之后， 往往很可能会出现一波明显的调整，也就是至少会形成日线级别的向 下一笔。 从量能角度看，牛市中的下跌缩量到一定程度之后往往是企稳的重要 标志，快速上涨的牛市中一波像样的调整往往要求至少缩量到 55%之 下，而慢牛中的缩量 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of the article revolves around the trading strategy of "divergence" as described in the Chan theory, which emphasizes the importance of predicting turning points for buying low and selling high [1] - The article explains the method of "momentum divergence" using the MACD indicator, where a bottom divergence occurs when the stock price makes a new low while the MACD shows a shortening of green bars, indicating a potential reversal [1] - It highlights the necessity of selecting stocks with clear structures and strong trends for effective trading, as weak trends may lead to repeated divergences and increased downward momentum [1] Group 2 - The article introduces a simplified rule for identifying bottom formations, which requires that the current candlestick's highest price is higher than the highest price of the previous two days, and the lowest price is also higher than the lowest price of the previous two days [2] - It provides a visual example to clarify the identification of bottom formations, emphasizing the need for confirmation through subsequent candlesticks if the initial conditions are not met [2] - The article also mentions that while there are various combinations for identifying formations, they ultimately adhere to the same fundamental rules outlined for bottom formations [2] Group 3 - The article describes the process for identifying top formations, which is essentially the reverse of the bottom formation process [3] - It acknowledges that all methods may encounter failures, but maintains that the simplicity and effectiveness of the described methods are appealing and align with Dow Theory principles [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and selecting strong stocks, suggesting that mastering the initial concepts of trading theories can simplify the learning process for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Theories - The article discusses the similarities between two trading theories: "股魔" and "缠论", highlighting that both can provide valuable insights into market behavior [1]. - It mentions that the initial ten articles of "缠论" focus on understanding the market and selecting strong stocks, which are crucial for successful trading [1]. Group 2: Analytical Framework - The article outlines a three-dimensional framework for stock selection: technical analysis, relative pricing, and fundamentals, where technical analysis includes traditional price behavior and indicators [2]. - It emphasizes that fundamentals should encompass the buying logic beyond just financial metrics, aligning with the broader understanding of market sentiment [2]. Group 3: Philosophical and Scientific Basis - The article asserts that "缠论" is grounded in philosophy, mathematics, and physics, making it a legitimate trading theory rather than mere speculation [3]. - It highlights the necessity of understanding complex science and chaos theory to fully grasp "缠论", which may pose challenges for those without a strong academic background [3].

如上图，昨天是回撤开始后首次反弹，到50均线的凸形反转位置遭遇打压，这一招几乎每次都灵，可能 是均线最有用的技巧了。如果用缠论来描述，这就是第三卖点。明天将继续下跌，VAD动量底背离 时，就和情绪指标的粘合信号共振了。 创新药、黄金老铺、泡泡玛特这三条线应该差不多了吧，每次当媒体铺天盖地来狂欢的时候，也差不多 就是末日，至少是阶段的末日，这一波回撤理应由它们担任主角。 RS背离值昨天略微收敛了一下，今天继续扩张，也就是动量在正向累积，继续充电，充电电流看上去 不大，估计要多充几天吧。 为什么昨天的阳线不能乐观，且看次级别回撤常用的15~30分钟图： 如上图，情绪三线再次掉落且粘合时，将是一次高胜率反弹机会，或许在明天，或许后天，也或许再多 两天，因为从态势看，越来越像缓跌，这和我之前的预期一致：成交量的变化斜率已经不支持指数单日 骤跌。 《 后续一段时间可能性较大的两种演变结构 》一文中给出的推演，现在看来是朝着第二种结构的演绎 路径来了。 第三种可能就是跌穿上图种下轨支撑，然后一路缓缓阴跌，成交量不断缓缓缩量，大家觉得这种可能性 大吗？ ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the AH premium as a leading indicator for A-shares, with recent data showing the AH premium level dropped to a low of 131.65 on May 29, indicating a potential correlation with the peak of the Hong Kong stock market [1][2][3] - The AH premium has historically shown a relationship where its highs and lows correspond to the peaks and troughs of the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting that the recent decline may signal a market bottom [1][2] - Starting from May 30, the AH premium began to recover, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the recent trend of the Chinese yuan's appreciation, which has positively impacted both the Hong Kong and A-share markets, but warns that this trend may be reversing [7][8] - Technical analysis suggests that the rapid appreciation of the yuan may be reaching its end, potentially leading to pressure on both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [7][8] - The yuan's exchange rate is shown to have a vague positive correlation with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but the recent technical indicators suggest a possible stabilization or reversal in the yuan's appreciation [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the philosophical underpinnings of investment strategies, contrasting rationalism and empiricism, and highlights the importance of skepticism in value investing, particularly as exemplified by Warren Buffett and David Dodd's approaches [4][25][36]. Group 1: Rationalism vs. Empiricism - Rationalism emphasizes knowledge derived from reason and logical deduction, often leading to the creation of comprehensive frameworks to explain market behavior [10][16]. - Empiricism focuses on knowledge gained through experience and observation, suggesting that practical experience is more valuable than theoretical constructs in investment [20][21]. - The article suggests that while rationalism can create robust investment theories, it often fails to predict future market behavior accurately, which is a critical aspect of successful investing [17][22]. Group 2: Skepticism in Value Investing - Skepticism, as articulated by philosopher David Hume, posits that causal relationships are often illusory, which aligns with the investment philosophy of Buffett, who emphasizes understanding businesses within one's "circle of competence" [25][34]. - Buffett's investment strategy is characterized by a focus on observable business fundamentals rather than complex financial models, reflecting a skeptical approach to predictions based on theoretical frameworks [36][37]. - The principle of "margin of safety" in value investing is rooted in the acknowledgment that investors can be wrong, thus advocating for buying undervalued assets to mitigate potential losses [36]. Group 3: Investment Methodologies - The article outlines that rationalist methodologies dominate technical analysis and macroeconomic modeling, while empirical approaches are more prevalent in value investing [14][15]. - It highlights that many successful investors, including Buffett, rely on empirical observations and historical performance rather than solely on theoretical models [34][41]. - The discussion includes the evolution of investment thought from classical rationalism to a more nuanced understanding that incorporates elements of Bayesian reasoning, which aligns with empirical evidence [42].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is driven by a weaker USD and a thawing in China-US trade relations, with future focus on tariff negotiations and US economic data impacting the USD index [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown a "short-term rapid appreciation," influenced by the weakening of the USD and narrowing China-US interest rate differentials [1] - The relationship between the RMB exchange rate and both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is observed to be vaguely positively correlated, while the exchange rate is strongly correlated with the China-US interest rate differential [1] - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB has contributed to the recovery of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, but technical analysis suggests that the rapid appreciation phase has ended, leading to potential fluctuations [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis Insights - From a technical perspective, the RMB exchange rate is currently in a phase of oscillation after the rapid appreciation, which may cause disturbances in market trends [1] - The analysis indicates that if the RMB rebounds to certain levels, it may signal further downward movement, while a return to specific thresholds could indicate reduced downward space [1][23] - The PCR indicator, which tracks short-term market timing, has shown a slight increase, indicating a high-risk zone, suggesting that if it remains elevated, a market adjustment may be imminent [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the results of the 2024 Seventh New Wealth Best Investment Advisor Competition, showcasing the achievements of investment advisors and emphasizing the importance of professional skills in wealth management [2][5]. Group 1: Competition Overview - The competition involved 36,616 investment advisors from 96 securities companies, indicating a highly competitive environment [2]. - Li Xianghui, a senior investment advisor from Beijing Jinsong Nine District Securities Branch, achieved an impressive 9th place nationally among nearly 40,000 participants [2][5]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The simulated ETF portfolio managed by Li Xianghui recorded a cumulative return of 32.93% from May 6, 2024, to October 31, 2024, ranking 65th out of 2,038 participants [7][8]. - The stock selection success rate for the portfolio was 80.43%, with a maximum drawdown of 11.80% and a turnover rate of 2742.11% [8]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes a short-term, low-buying strategy while avoiding high chasing, focusing on technical analysis and market timing [12][13]. - The advisor combines Elliott Wave Theory and Chan Theory to create a comprehensive investment advisory system, focusing on the integration of volume, price, time, and space [14][15]. Group 4: Strategy and Analysis - The competition strategies included fundamental analysis of macroeconomic factors and technical analysis for timing trades, highlighting the need for a balanced approach [17]. - A multi-directional hedging strategy was also mentioned as a means to reduce market risk, although it is noted that retail investors often lack effective short-selling tools [17].