Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below expectations [1][1][1] Employment Data - The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reaching 4.3% [1] - Non-farm employment growth was only 22,000 in August, a sharp decline from the revised 79,000 in July and well below the market expectation of 75,000 [1][1] - The report confirms a trend of weakness in the U.S. labor market, as evidenced by the rising unemployment rate and disappointing job growth figures [1][1][1] Revision of Previous Data - The non-farm payroll figures for May and June were also significantly revised downward, indicating a broader trend of labor market deterioration [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant underperformance of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, which increased by only 22,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 75,000 jobs, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [1][14] - Following the disappointing non-farm data, U.S. stock markets initially opened higher but later experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.82%, Nasdaq by 0.69%, and S&P 500 by 0.75% [1][2] - The article notes that the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.55%, indicating a strong performance of Chinese concept stocks despite the overall market downturn [1][2] Group 2 - The article reports that gold prices surged, reaching a record high of $3,590.93 per ounce, reflecting a 1.29% increase in response to the weak non-farm payroll data [6] - The U.S. dollar index fell to 97.47, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped over 8 basis points to 4.08%, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards lower interest rates [8][10] - The article discusses the implications of the weak labor market data, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is likely to resume interest rate cuts, with a 100% probability of a rate cut expected in September [16][14]

Group 1 - The latest US non-farm payroll report for August showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating a weakening labor market [1] - Following the disappointing employment data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has reached 100% according to market expectations [2] Group 2 - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported that job vacancies in July fell to 7.181 million, the lowest since September 2024, and below the expected 7.382 million [2] - The ADP report indicated that private sector job growth in August was only 54,000, falling short of the anticipated 65,000 and significantly down from the revised 106,000 in the previous month [2] - Initial jobless claims increased by 8,000 to 237,000, marking the highest level since June 2025, against an expectation of 230,000 [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the combination of tariff policy uncertainty, immigration changes, and the rise of AI applications is contributing to a weakening labor market, reinforcing the case for interest rate cuts [3] - Concerns about inflation, fiscal health, and geopolitical instability are raising doubts about the stability of US Treasury bonds, traditionally seen as safe assets [3] - The US government's fiscal and debt situation is described as being in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation [3] Group 4 - Central banks globally are reducing their bond holdings after previously engaging in quantitative easing during the pandemic, which had increased demand for long-term sovereign bonds [4] - The shift from defined benefit pension plans to defined contribution plans is leading to a decline in demand for long-term bonds from pension funds [4] Group 5 - Large institutions, such as Australian retirement trust funds managing approximately 216 billion USD, are reducing their exposure to US Treasuries, reflecting a broader trend of reassessing asset allocation [5] - Concerns about high debt levels, a weakening economy, and high inflation continue to pose risks to the US Treasury market, even if the government shifts to issuing short-term bonds [5]

黄金周三（9月3日）早盘冲高3546/3547附近后回落震荡，午后下探3527附近企稳开始震荡慢涨，欧美盘延续上涨，到凌晨最高上涨至3578附近，尾盘受阻 回落，日线收出一根带有上影线的阳线。 关键数据疲软：7月职位空缺数锐减17.6万至718.1万（2024年9月以来最低），低于预期的737.8万；职位空缺率降至4.3%，且失业人数首次超过职位空缺（1 名失业者对应0.99个岗位），为2021年4月以来首次跌破1:1。 行业分化明显：医疗保健和社会援助（就业增长主力）职位空缺连降2个月（减少18.1万），建筑、制造等领域的空缺增长不足以扭转颓势；联邦政府空缺 增加1.8万，多与政策调整相关，非市场自发需求。 未来预期悲观：经济学家预测8月非农就业或仅增7.5万，失业率升至4.3%；富国银行等机构认为，特朗普政府关税政策抬高企业成本、打击非法移民导致劳 动力供应紧缩，是市场恶化的重要原因。 一、基本面 1、美国劳动力市场疲软信号明确 21:45，美国8月标普全球服务业PMI终值； 2、美联储官员密集释放鸽派信号，降息预期飙升 降息概率骤升：投资者预计9月16-17日美联储降息25个基点的概率从90%升至96% ...

现如今，特朗普依旧对美联储和鲍威尔大加批评，但不再提及辞退鲍威尔的内容。可以看出，特朗普想走第二条路线，等到明年5月份后，提名新的美联 储主席。为了防止新的主席效仿鲍威尔坚决不降息，特朗普肯定会在候选人之中进行严格筛选。只有那些笃定降息的人，才有可能被提名。所以，我们认 为，无论谁当选下一任美联储主席，都会选择密集降息 。 ATFX风险提示、免责条款、特别声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅代表分析师个人观点，不构成任何操作建议。请勿将本报告视为唯一参考 依据。在不同时期，分析师的观点可能发生变化，更新内容不会另行通知。 ▲ATFX图 美联储主席鲍威尔意志坚定，一直以潜在高通胀为由，坚持不降息。然而，在特朗普入主白宫之前的一个月，美联储都还在维持降息路径。2024年12月18 日，美联储宣布降息25基点，基准利率来到4.25%～4.5% 。一个月后，特朗普当选新任总统，美联储便一直按兵不动，直至现在。这不由得让人怀疑，美 联储可能是因为某种政治立场而选择不降息。当然，鲍威尔给出的解释是：特朗普的关税政策可能是引爆通胀数据的导火索，在没有确切证据表明关税不 会推高通胀之前，有必要维持高利率。 现实情况是，美 ...

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